01/29 | Daily H5N1 / Bird Flu / Avian Influenza Thread... "Flu-Casters"

PCViking · Jan 28, 2006

In the past few months, there has been a lot of info on BF. For at least the past 2 months, there has been a daily BF thread... (started sometime after midnight GMT for the particular day) here on TB. This is a great source for looking up when this or that happened. Is this the next big pandemic, or are we just getting set up for another freedom-grab? You decide.

For a little standardization... Whoever starts the thread, put the date mm/dd | H5N1, or Bird Flu or Avian Influenza somewhere in the title. and cite the previous day's thread in the first post... It'll jsut make life simpler when following some string of events

PCViking · Jan 28, 2006

Bird's eye view of the world from Davos

By Robert Peston (Filed: 29/01/2006)

A pall of fatalism seemed to fall on Davos, more numbing than the rising snow and the falling mist, in the closing stages of this year's World Economic Forum.

One manifestation was an epidemic of avian-flu doomsaying, following the dissemination of World Health Organisation and Booz Allen scenarios about the possible impact of a pandemic of that feathered, flying virus. The chief executive of a health business said to me: "There is a great deal of hysteria being generated: that is the job of media, not the World Economic Forum, for heaven's sake".

One economic consequence if the bug does jump the species barrier is - apparently - that the price of oil would collapse. Why so? Borders would be closed to contain the spread of the illness. Airports would be shut down. Whole industries - especially tourism - would go into recession. So demand for aviation fuel and possibly even petrol would plummet.

And, come to think of it, there would also be a massive drop in greenhouse gas emissions. So perhaps the avian flu threat is a manifestation of the earth's natural self-correcting mechanism (no, I'm not really signed up to the gaia theory of market behaviour).

Or perhaps we have worked ourselves up into a state about this ghastly but nebulous possible disaster because it is a convenient distraction from the more tangible and measurable risks of global warming - which, if we took them seriously, would require us to change our way of living and make modest economic sacrifices (as it happens, the WEF plutocracy did not manifest any great desire to climb out of their hired Mercs and Audis and become carbon-neutral pedestrians).

A vast amount of CO2 was exhaled by assorted oil executives, scientists, economists and insurers who participated in a series of WEF debates about climate change. There were two basic conclusions: global warming is real and worrying (doh!); market forces are gradually providing remedies, but - probably - they are doing so too slowly.

As it happens, the private sector is less complacent than many governments (well one administration in particular, which happens to be in charge of the richest nation on the planet). And there is a particularly attractive neatness about BP's pilot to extract the carbon from natural gas, which is supposed to go live at Peterhead in 2008.

The noxious carbon would be pumped out to sea and buried in the Miller Field, thus extending the working life of that field by more than a decade. And the hydrogen would be burned in a special power station which produces no CO2.

Georgeous, aint it? The only snag is that - even if it proves to be commercially viable, which it would be at the current oil price (so let's hope the flu doesn't bite) - the technology will not be used on any great scale for at least 10 years.

But don't fret. Even if city-destroying hurricanes become the Atlantic norm, thus wiping out most of the built up areas of the East Coast of the United States - and seas swollen by melting polar ice encroach on low-lying coastal regions - new financial products are being developed to ease the financial pain.

The traditional reinsurance industry will not provide cover against all of the possible inundation, its probability-plotting leaders told me. It is not that they are under-capitalised in the most simplistic sense. It's just that - understandably - they do not want to be too exposed to one particular (and enormous) event.

So they are parcelling up these catastrophic risks and selling them on securities markets under the catchy brand of "catastrophe bonds" or cat bonds (they don't sound quite the thing for widows and orphans). However, the market has developed more slowly than is probably healthy - partly because the financial regulators have not yet put in place appropriately sensitive rules governing how much capital is freed up for reinsurers when they do these deals.

But guess what? The mighty Swiss Re, the second biggest reinsurer in the world, had the foresight to sell two tranches of securities, called Vita 1 and Vita 2 and worth $762m (£433m) in total, with the resonant category name of mortality bonds. The repayment on them is reduced in step amounts if the mortality rate rises by 25 per cent or by 50 per cent above trend - which is precisely what would happen in a lethal avian-flu pandemic.

You see that the great thing about the bird's eye view from the Davos peaks is that everything appears to fit together. Or is it just that we've all been addled by incipient bird flu?

Farewell and hello

After almost four years, I am leaving the Sunday Telegraph to become the BBC's Business Editor. I have had the time of my life, largely because the team on this newspaper is the best in the business.

I'll miss them - just as I will also miss the letters and emails from readers who felt moved to share their reactions to my columns. Thanks to all of you who argued with me. Especial thanks to those of you who spotted mistakes and took pains to put me right. Sorry to those with whom I had to agree to disagree. Anyway, after 22 years as a print journalist, I'm off to acquire some new skills. It is both daunting and very exciting. But I know I can count on you for constructive feedback on TV-and-radio me.

Farewell and hello

http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/money...nuId=242&sSheet=/money/2006/01/29/ixcoms.html

:vik:

PCViking · Jan 28, 2006

This was posted in yesterday's thread... but it's too big a 'dot' to be buried in the cascade of BF articles.

UN may use 'flu-casters' in flu pandemic

Sunday Jan 29 10:36 AEDT

The United Nations is considering using "flu-casters", modelled on television weather forecasters, to publicise vital information if a global flu pandemic strikes.

They could broadcast latest developments from emergency-response facilities at the UN's World Health Organisation in Geneva, according to David Nabarro, the UN's top influenza coordinator.

"The flu-casters would draw out the maps and keep people engaged at regular intervals ... beaming it from the WHO bunker," Nabarro told Reuters in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The WHO's Geneva bunker, a $US5 million ($A6.66 million) facility built in a former cinema, is the world's nerve-centre for tracking bird flu and other deadly diseases.

The room will become a global command centre if the H5N1 bird flu virus, which has killed at least 83 people in Asia since 2003, mutates into a form which spreads easily among humans and sparks a flu pandemic which could kill millions.

The screen-filled bunker could link the "flu-casters" with TV networks via satellite feeds.

Nabarro was speaking as the United Nations analysed results from a top-level catastrophe simulation to set policies that envisage governments, companies and the media working together to fight a global flu pandemic.

The exercise has produced surprising conclusions that could prove key should the disease start to spread quickly among humans.

One of the most important conclusions was that maintaining infrastructure - water, power and the provision of food - could take a higher priority than providing care to the sick, Nabarro told Reuters.

"It is maybe even more important to concentrate on the essentials of life for those who are living than it is to focus on the treatment of those who are sick," he said. "We learned a lot."

A pandemic could see travel and trade halted, workers forced to stay home, schools closed and a number of other dramatic measures designed to limit the spread.

The UN aims to forge fixed partnerships with key actors who would be involved in any pandemic response effort, which would include community groups, aid groups like the Red Cross, businesses and the media, Nabarro said.

"The focus on business is important. They have skills and can do things that governments cannot," he said. Clear communications would also be crucial.

The simulation assumed that the world was 40 days into the outbreak of a deadly pandemic.

"What became clear to us was, if we don't work together effectively and get prepared, we will be badly hit by that pandemic," he said.

The pandemic preparations will call for novel approaches if officials are to limit the potential catastrophic damage - such as the use of mobile phone technology to distribute questionnaires and information, Nabarro said.

Nabarro also warned there was still a lot of work to be done in the event of an outbreak.

"Governments are starting to realise that they are nowhere near prepared for the damage that it could cause," he said at a panel discussion.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=65290

:vik:

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 28, 2006

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<center>Suspected bird flu death in Iraq

January 29 2006
<A href="http://abcasiapacific.com/news/stories/asiapacific_stories_1557344.htm">abcasiapacific.com</a></center>
Tests are being carried out on a dead Iraqi man to determine whether he had bird flu.

The World Health Organisation says the man's niece also died ten days ago after suffering breathing problems.

Both died near the border with Turkey, which has reported more than 20 human cases of avian flu this month.

So far there have been no confirmed cases of the virus among poultry in Iraq, but a WHO spokeswoman said some birds had died recently in the area from which the girl and her uncle came.

The results of the test will be known in a few days.

Bird flu has killed at least 83 people since 2003, most of them in Asia.

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 28, 2006

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<center>Iraqi dies of bird flu symptoms 

Web posted at: 1/29/2006 7:14:6
Source ::: AFP
<A href="http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=World_News&subsection=Gulf%2C+Middle+East+%26+Africa&month=January2006&file=World_News200601297146.xml">www.thepeninsulaqatar.com</a></center>
SULAIMANIYAH: A man showing symptoms of bird flu died in Iraqi Kurdistan and his samples have been sent to Jordan for testing, a Kurdish official said yesterday. Hamma Sour Abdullah, 40, died on Friday in Sulaimaniyah. He was the uncle of a 14-year-old girl, who also died flu-like symptoms, but who subsequent tests established did not have the H5N1 virus. “We decided to send the samples of the man to the WHO laboratory in Amman to make sure that he had not died of H5N1 virus,” a senior official said

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 28, 2006

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<center>January 29, 2006
<A href="http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200601/29/eng20060129_239150.html">english.peopledaily.com</a>

Falcons tested for deadly bird flu virus in Saudi Arabia </center>
The Saudi authorities have been testing samples of five falcons for possible infection of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported on Saturday. 

The five have already been tested positive to the H5 strain of bird flu and the authorities are waiting for test results on the sub-type, according to the report, citing the Agriculture Ministry.

Altogether 37 falcons including the five, which were raised in a veterinary center in the capital Riyadh, have been culled, the report added.

It is the first bird flu case reported in Saudi Arabia.

Neighboring Kuwait reported in November a case of the H5N1 strain of bird flu, the first such case in the Gulf region.

Experts fear that bird flu, which currently jumps from birds to humans, might mutate into a form that easily pass among humans, which would mean a global pandemic, killing millions.

The H5N1 strain has killed some 80 people worldwide so far since late 2003.

Source: Xinhua

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 28, 2006

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<center>Saturday, January 28, 2006
UI scientist: Flu pandemic 'inevitable'

Current focus, concern inspiring preparations
By Gregg Hennigan
Iowa City Press-Citizen
Gilchrist
<A href="http://www.press-citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060128/NEWS01/601280312/1079">www.press-citizen.com</a></center>
A global influenza pandemic this century is inevitable, the director of the University of Iowa Hygienic Lab told a group of farmers Friday.

And though the current focus is on avian flu, that may not necessarily be the source of the next outbreak, but it is inspiring preparations, director Mary Gilchrist said.

"With H5N1, people have started to listen," she said of the bird flu strain currently causing concern around the world.

Gilchrist spoke to an audience of about 40 Friday morning at Oakdale Hall on UI's Oakdale campus. The presentation was part of the Iowa City Area Chamber of Commerce Agriculture Committee's breakfast series.

"It's one of those things that goes well beyond the agriculture community," said Dana Engelbert, chamber of commerce communications director. "Essentially, the way of life as we know it, things could change."

H5N1 has killed 79 people out of 148 confirmed cases, almost all of them in Southeast Asia, according to the World Health Organization. Though it has people worried, Gilchrist pointed out that more common strains of the flu kill 36,000 Americans annually.

What has health officials concerned about H5N1 is the high mortality rate for those infected. Also, though contracting it right now requires close contact with infected birds, the fear is that it could become transferable from human to human and lead to a pandemic.

There have been, on average, three flu pandemics in each of the past three centuries, Gilchrist said. The best known from last century was the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918 that killed up to 50 million people worldwide. But there were also pandemics in 1957 and 1968 that killed 1.5 million people combined, she said.

"A pandemic is absolutely inevitable; that is what every scientist believes," Gilchrist said.

What offers some hope, Gilchrist said, is that if it is caused by bird flu, scientists have never before known so much about a disease before a possible outbreak.

There are about 150 strains of bird flu, including H5N1, she said. It has been traced to infected chickens in Hong Kong in 1997 and has been confined mostly to Southeast Asia, though two deaths recently occurred in Turkey.

The disease could spread to Iowa, Gilchrist said, through the importation of infected birds, migration of wild birds, bioterrorism or travelers returning from an infected area.

Gary Eden, who farms land between Hills and Lone Tree, said the presentation helped him realize an outbreak would affect more than just farmers and that it could spread rapidly.

"The consequences of this, if it were to hit, would probably not be realized by the public right away," he said.

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 28, 2006

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<center>Sat 28 Jan 2006

Bird flu nightmare needs wake-up call

AL AVLICINO
<A href="http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/opinion.cfm?id=142622006">edinburghnews.scotsman.com</a></center>
YEARS ago when I first started studying the avian influenza virus H5N1, it seemed highly unlikely that it would ever develop into pandemic status. I believed it might eventually trigger a conventional bout of flu, but certainly nothing to the degree of its H1N1 ancestor, the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 50 to 100 million people. 

I have followed this virus in its inexorable march towards a pandemic, seen how it kept surprising the experts by picking up more and more human-infectious traits, until now there is virtually no doubt that there will be a worldwide avian flu pandemic and that H5N1 will be responsible for it.

We have all heard the projections from avian influenza experts like Dr Michael Osterholm that in a single flu season as many as 360 million people could die. That figure is unimaginable. It's the total number of dead from the Boxing Day Tsunami every two hours, or a fully loaded 747 crashing every 13 seconds, around the clock for months on end. Three million dead in the UK alone or the equivalent of six Edinburghs.

The global integrated economy cannot survive a pandemic of this magnitude. Absenteeism rates of upwards of 75 per cent caused by illness and panic would cripple food distribution, utility access and virtually all other commerce. The bleak vision of surviving on canned food and bottled water in cold, dark homes, fearful of stepping outdoors for months on end, could happen right here in Scotland and around the world.

Do not make the error of assuming this cannot happen here. Migratory birds from Western China brought H5N1 to Turkey in early October where it lay undetected until people started dying a couple of weeks ago. Those migratory patterns continue into North Africa and Western Europe. When will H5N1 arrive in Scotland? Judging by the Turkish model, it may already be here. Let's not even consider what can happen when an infected individual arrives at Edinburgh Airport.

The 1918 pandemic started in an Army barracks in Kansas. Within one week the virus was present in all 48 contiguous United States in an era where the only modes of transport were trains and horses. The spread of this virus in the jet age is unimaginable. There likely would not be a corner of the Earth where this modern plague would not be present within weeks, maybe days.

The virus needs to pick up another trait or two to become as easily transmitted between humans as a common cold. That could happen at any time or it may already have begun.

Developing a vaccine against H5N1 is like targeting a clay pigeon. You have to shoot ahead of the target to allow the bullet and clay to intersect. Unfortunately H5N1 is a pigeon that does random, sudden 90 degree turns. It is the ultimate moving target. The time to develop and manufacture a global vaccine is six to eight months. By that time, the avian flu virus will likely have mutated into a form that is immune to the vaccine.

Current flu vaccines have no effect on H5N1, and although it is recommended that everyone be vaccinated, we should be clear in the knowledge that should a pandemic start, there is no protection from current vaccines or certainly from antiviral drugs. The antivirals of choice right now are Roche's Tamiflu and Glaxo's Relenza. The UK has ordered more than £200 million of Tamiflu, believing that it could help fend off the pandemic. Unfortunately, Tamiflu is fairly useless as an avian flu pandemic fighter.

In a recent Asian study Tamiflu was proven as ineffective as sugar pills against some H5N1 strains. The best use for these drugs is as a preventative, taking at least two doses per day from the moment the first virus arrives in your area and throughout all the months of the flu wave.

To provide everyone in the world with this albeit minor preventative measure would require, in a conservative calculation, 650 billion pills or the equivalent to the total weight of the Queen Elizabeth II fully loaded with passengers and cargo just in pure Tamiflu! All we have to do is write a cheque to Roche for one trillion pounds. And it still wouldn't stop the pandemic.

Thorough hygiene and other common-sense precautions are the only ways to blunt the impact of this pandemic. Raw poultry must be considered as a biohazard. Surfaces and clothing must be disinfected with bleach. It's time to rediscover the "disinfect everything" policy of the NHS matrons of the 1950s.

H5N1 could surprise us all and evolve into a squirrel or koala virus, sparing humanity. However, the chances of that occurring are next to zero. The world is fully unprepared. The onus must shift from wasting billions on "magic bullet" drugs that don't work to preparation and survivability.

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 28, 2006

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<center>Traces of avian flu in Saudi: 37 falcons culled
(AFP)

29 January 2006
<A href="http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/middleeast/2006/January/middleeast_January808.xml&section=middleeast&col=">www.khaleejtimes.com</a></center>
RIYADH — Saudi authorities have culled 37 falcons after discovering cases that have tested positive to the H5 virus of the avian flu, the agriculture ministry said yesterday.

A ministry team inspecting falcons kept in a veterinary centre in Riyadh, which takes care of the birds that are usually used for hunting, discovered the cases, said a ministry statement carried by SPA official news agency.

The ministry said 37 falcons, including the five cases “were killed and burned”.

Laboratory tests were being conducted to establish if the cases test also positive for the N virus — “the other component of the (bird flu) virus”, it added.

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 28, 2006

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<center>Bird Flu Cases Found in Saudi Arabia

Arab News
<A href="http://www.arabnews.com/?page=1&section=0&article=77009&d=29&m=1&y=2006">www.arabnews.com</a></center>
RIYADH, 29 January 2006 — Saudi Arabia has culled 37 falcons after some of them tested positive to the H5 virus of the avian flu, the Agriculture Ministry said yesterday.

A ministry team inspecting falcons kept in a veterinary center in Riyadh, which takes care of the birds that are usually used for hunting, discovered the cases, Saudi Press Agency quoted the ministry statement as saying.

The ministry said the 37 falcons, including the five positive cases “were killed and burned.”

Laboratory tests are being conducted to establish if the cases also test positive for the N virus — “the other component of the (bird flu) virus,” it added.

In November the Kingdom banned all bird imports from neighboring countries. That decision came a day after Kuwait announced a bird stricken with avian flu in the country carried the deadly H5N1 strain, in the first case of its kind in the Gulf. Another bird was found to have the milder H5N2 strain.

Scientists fear that the more the virus spreads, the greater the chance that H5N1 will mutate into a form that is easily transmissible between humans, making it capable of sparking a global pandemic that could claim millions of lives. The toll from the H5N1 strain of bird flu has climbed to 80 people worldwide since 2003.

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 28, 2006

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<center>Bird flu hits Turkey

Saturday January 28, 2006 08:17 - (SA)
<A href="http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/zones/sundaytimesNEW/basket7st/basket7st1138429031.aspx">www.sundaytimes.co.uk</a></center>
ANKARA - A London-based World Health Organization (WHO) laboratory has confirmed 12 of the 21 human cases of the lethal bird flu strain in Turkey, the health ministry said. 

"The analysis of samples from the remaining cases is continuing," the statement, carried by Anatolia news agency, said.

Turkish labs have diagnosed a total of 21 people with the H5N1 strain of the disease, including four teenagers who have perished since January 1, the first human fatalities of bird flu outside Southeast Asia and China.

The ministry said 14 H5N1 carriers had been discharged from hospital after recovering, and three others remained under treatment.

"It is encouraging that there have been no new cases (since January 17), but precautions should continue," it added.

All but two of the human cases in Turkey are children and teenagers aged between two and 18, who were infected after coming into close contact with sick birds.

The four dead were all from Dogubeyazit, a remote eastern region near the border with Iran where the current outbreak started in December.

Sapa-AFP

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 28, 2006

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<center>Uncle of Supected H5N1 Fatality in Iraq Also Dies

<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01280601/H5N1_Iraq_2.html">Recombinomics Commentary</a>
January 28, 2006</center>
A man showing symptoms of bird flu died in Iraqi Kurdistan and his samples have been sent to Jordan for testing.

Hamma Sour Abdullah, 40, died Friday in Sulaimaniyah. He was the uncle of a 14-year-old girl, who also died flu-like symptoms

He said Abdullah died after suffering for a few days from a pulmonary infection

The above description creates a familial cluster with a bimodal distribution of disease onset dates, indicating the uncle was infected by his niece. Both had bird flu symptoms and the niece's physician indicated her symptoms matched those of confirmed cases in Turkey. Although WHO "discounted" the earlier case, they gave no details on why the case was discounted. The second case in the family strongly suggests the WHO discount was incorrect.

Recently, all initial confirmed human cases first reported are family clusters. This has been true for Cambodia, Indonesia, China, and Turkey. These cases initially test negative or are not tested, but the familial cluster forces additional testing which turns positive in one or more family members. Iraq will likely follow the same pattern of prior admissions by the countries listed above,

H5N1 testing remains scandalously poor. H5N1 confirmation in humans enters its third year, yet countries continue to report fase negatives and WHO does little to correct the situation. The WHO "discount" of the 14 year-old appears to be more of the same, as the H5N1 cases continue to be excluded by negative results by unreliable tests.

The clinical presentation of cases is much more reliable, and such presentations would indicate Iraq has a familial cluster of H2H transmission, as reported in Turkey. Turkey continues to report H5N1 outbreaks on farms, although they have halted reports of new H5N1 cases in humans. Cases are being admitted and treated as H5N1 cases, but not reported as confirmed cases. Neighbors of Turkey are taking the same approach for suspected H5N1 in birds, The birds are culled, but no H5N1 reports are made.

WHO, US, and EU send in representatives to assess and assist, but the reporting has no credibility. H5N1 is widespread in the Middle East, yet only Turkey has reported confirmed cases.

H5N1 continues to spread and government agencies issue press releases that are clearly false.

PCViking · Jan 29, 2006

Article Last Updated: 1/28/2006 04:15 PM

Terror attack a big worry, but bird flu more likely, leaders say

The Associated Press

Salt Lake Tribune
DAVOS, Switzerland - The global threat that most preoccupies the world's business leaders is the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, according to a study released at the World Economic Forum.
Other global risks, such as terrorist attacks and the possibility of an even bigger oil price shock, were deemed just as dangerous, but less likely to happen in the coming year, said the ''Global Risks 2006'' report. The five-day forum attracted 2,340 global leaders, including former President Clinton, Microsoft's Bill Gates, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Lloyd Blankfein and Harvard University President Lawrence Summers. Other attendees, included 23 theologians and 15 heads of state.
The H5N1 bird flu strain has ravaged poultry stocks in Asia since 2003 and recently spread to Europe through migratory birds. World health authorities fear the disease could mutate into a form that spreads easily from person-to-person, sparking a flu pandemic that could kill millions of people.
So far, though, human cases of the disease have been mostly limited to people who have come into direct contact with infected birds. According to the World Health Organization, 83 people have died of the disease since 2003.
''If the avian flu H5N1 virus mutates to enable human-to-human transmission, it may disrupt our global society and economy in an unprecedented way,'' said the 22-page risk study, which was released by a panel of companies and experts.
Death tolls could be on the level of the 1918-'19 Spanish flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 40 million and 50 million people worldwide, it said.
The report also said it was likely that 5 million more people would become infected with HIV and tuberculosis this year.

http://www.sltrib.com/business/ci_3448169

:vik:

Housecarl · Jan 29, 2006

Reuter's version of the "flu-caster' story...

http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/news/story.jsp?id=2006012818170002632618&dt=20060128181700&w=RTR&coview=

UN may use 'flu-casters' if pandemic hits

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - The United Nations is considering using "flu-casters," modeled on television weather forecasters, to publicize vital information if a global flu pandemic strikes.

They could broadcast latest developments from emergency-response facilities at the U.N.'s World Health Organization in Geneva, according to David Nabarro, the U.N.'s top influenza coordinator.

"The flu-casters would draw out the maps and keep people engaged at regular intervals ... beaming it from the WHO bunker," Nabarro told Reuters in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The WHO's Geneva bunker, a $5 million facility built in a former cinema, is the world's nerve-center for tracking bird flu and other deadly diseases.

The room will become a global command center if the H5N1 bird flu virus, which has killed at least 83 people in Asia since 2003, mutates into a form which spreads easily among humans and sparks a flu pandemic which could kill millions.

The screen-filled bunker could link the "flu-casters" with TV networks via satellite feeds.

Nabarro was speaking as the United Nations analyzed results from a top-level catastrophe simulation to set policies that envisage governments, companies and the media working together to fight a global flu pandemic.

The exercise has produced surprising conclusions that could prove key should the disease start to spread quickly among humans.

HIGHER PRIORITY

One of the most important conclusions was that maintaining infrastructure -- water, power and the provision of food -- could take a higher priority than providing care to the sick, Nabarro told Reuters.

"It is maybe even more important to concentrate on the essentials of life for those who are living than it is to focus on the treatment of those who are sick," he said. "We learned a lot."

A pandemic could see travel and trade halted, workers forced to stay home, schools closed and a number of other dramatic measures designed to limit the spread.

The U.N. aims to forge fixed partnerships with key actors who would be involved in any pandemic response effort, which would include community groups, aid groups like the Red Cross, businesses and the media, Nabarro said.

"The focus on business is important. They have skills and can do things that governments cannot," he said. Clear communications would also be crucial.

The simulation assumed that the world was 40 days into the outbreak of a deadly pandemic.

"What became clear to us was, if we don't work together effectively and get prepared, we will be badly hit by that pandemic," he said.

The pandemic preparations will call for novel approaches if officials are to limit the potential catastrophic damage -- such as the use of mobile phone technology to distribute questionnaires and information, Nabarro said.

Nabarro also warned there was still a lot of work to be done in the event of an outbreak.

"Governments are starting to realize that they are nowhere near prepared for the damage that it could cause," he said at a panel discussion.

© Copyright Reuters Ltd. All rights reserved. The information contained In this news report may not be published, broadcast or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of Reuters Ltd.

01/28/2006 18:17
RTR

PCViking · Jan 29, 2006

Time is GMT + 8 hours
Posted: 29 January 2006 1851 hrs

Bird flu concerns affect Thailand's Lunar New Year celebrations

By Ken Teh, Channel NewsAsia

THAILAND, Bangkok: Thailand's Chinese community is scaling back family celebrations this Lunar New Year.

Many are avoiding buying chicken and duck and turning to other substitutes instead.

No Lunar New Year feast is complete without a hefty serving of chicken and duck.

But this year, poultry vendors in Bangkok's Chinatown are facing a much tougher time selling their birds.

Duck seller Somkiat Saengow said, "We're just surviving here, taking each day as it comes. Business now compared to last year is much worse."

Some Thais are staying away from poultry, because they're still worried about the bird flu.

Fishmonger Monghuad Saelim explained, "Some customers feel uneasy because of the bird flu crisis which they often watch on TV. This has caused some of them to avoid eating chicken, deciding instead to buy more fish"

Business is brisk for many fishmongers now.

Mass culling exercises to contain the bird flu have also led to soaring chicken prices this year - causing many to turn to cheaper substitutes.

Tungkuay Saeung said, "This year duck and chicken are both very expensive. And since we don't have much money, for a change we decided to one fish, 4 eggs, a piece of pork and some fruits, that's enough for us."

The Thai government is also not taking chances this festive season.

It's imposed stricter poultry standards to prevent a new outbreak of the bird flu.

Poultry products that are safe for consumption are now given a 'Q' seal of approval.

And the government is also ordering an upgrade of hygiene standards in chicken slaughterhouses nationwide. - CNA/fz

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/southeastasia/view/190657/1/.html

:vik:

PCViking · Jan 29, 2006

Bird flu pandemic threatens Ukraine - Health Ministry
13:11 | 29/ 01/ 2006

KIEV, January 29 (RIA Novosti) - The possibility of a bird flu pandemic in Ukraine is high, but the country is ready to deal with it, the health minister said Sunday.

Ukraine was among the countries where the possibility of a bird flu pandemic after the start of bird migration in the spring was high, Yuriy Polyachenko said in an interview with Ukrainian TV Channel 5.

The Ukrainian Health Ministry, the Ministry of Emergencies and the State Borderguard Service are urgently developing a coordinated action plan to face the worst situation.

The Ukrainian autonomy of Crimea was hit with a bird flu outbreak in November 2005. According to official data, laboratory tests have confirmed bird flu cases in 23 locations in the autonomy and more than 150,000 domestic fowl have so far been culled in 40 locations around the Crimean peninsula.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20060129/43233676.html

:vik:

PCViking · Jan 29, 2006

Dead wild bird in Hong Kong tests positive for deadly strain of bird flu

HONG KONG A dead wild bird found in Hong Kong has tested positive for the deadly strain of bird flu virus.
Confirmation comes ten days after another wild bird became the first in a year in the territory known to have the same deadly strain.

The latest case involved an Oriental magpie robin found January 26th.

Hong Kong went one year without reporting any cases in birds. But the streak ended on January 19th. Both birds were found near the border with mainland China.

Bird flu has ravaged Asian poultry stocks since late 2003, killing or forcing the slaughter of millions of birds.

Hong Kong has largely been spared during the latest round of bird flu in Asia.

At least 80 people have died across the globe.

http://www.wane.com/global/story.asp?s=4425359&ClientType=Printable

:vik:

PCViking · Jan 29, 2006

Bird Flu Virus In Cyprus
Updated: 13:32, Sunday January 29, 2006

Tests conducted on samples from birds in Cyprus have revealed they died of the deadly H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus.

The tests were carried out at a British laboratory on behalf of the European Commission.

The affected birds were in the northern, Turkish, area of the partitioned Mediterranean island.

Turkey was the first country in Europe to report cases of bird flu - and human fatalities - as the virus spread from the Far East.

Turkish and Greek communities on the island are divided by the so-called Green Line.

An EU statement said: "No live animals or animal products, including all poultry products and feathers, can be transferred across the Green Line or to the European Union."

Two Commission experts on bird flu are to go to Cyprus to investigate the situation.

Cypriot authorities have already taken action to prevent the spread of the disease, including keeping all poultry indoors.

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30200-1210686,00.html?f=rss

:vik:

PCViking · Jan 29, 2006

Michigan

Bird flu threat focus of legislative hearings

1/29/2006, 9:25 a.m. ET
By TIM MARTIN
The Associated Press

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — The first of three legislative hearings to discuss Michigan's preparedness for the bird flu is scheduled for Monday.

The House Agriculture and Health Policy committees will explore the state's preparedness if there is a pandemic, including strategies to coordinate containment efforts and alert the public.

The first hearing is scheduled for Grand Valley State University in Grand Rapids. Other hearings are set for Feb. 6 in Detroit and Feb. 14 in Lansing.

Michigan Department of Community Health officials have had a pandemic influenza response plan since 2002, but it has been modified significantly this year in response to the threat of avian influenza — also known as the bird flu.

The bird flu strain has ravaged poultry in Asia and recently spread to Europe through migratory birds.

World health authorities fear the disease could mutate into a form that spreads easily from person-to-person, sparking a flu pandemic. Human cases of the disease so far have been limited mostly to people who have come into direct contact with infected birds. Eighty-three people have died of the disease, according to the World Health Organization.

"We want people to understand we have a plan, and we want them to know exactly what our plans are," said T.J. Bucholz, a spokesman for the Department of Community Health. "We view these hearings as a good, nonpartisan opportunity to help educate the public."

Department of Community Health officials are expected to testify at the Feb. 14 meeting.

Officials say the state's health laboratory will be able to rule out avian flu within 24 hours of receiving a human sample from a local public health department. The state also is working closely with the federal government's response plan.

Monday's hearing is expected to include testimony from poultry producers, hospital executives and Michigan State University avian disease experts.

Also this week, lawmakers are expected to vote on legislation that would shift responsibility for putting ballot issues before Michigan voters from the Board of State Canvassers to full-time secretary of state staff.

Republicans say the measure would remove partisan politics from the ballot proposal certification process.

The four-member board has two Republicans and two Democrats. The current Democratic members, Doyle O'Connor and Paul Mitchell, have been criticized for their handling of a ballot proposal that would ban some affirmative action programs in Michigan.

http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/busi...-31/1138545553241160.xml&storylist=mibusiness

:vik:

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 29, 2006

=

<center>In War on Bird Flu, U.N. Looks to Recruit Killer Army

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
New York Times
<A href="http://www.hendersonvillenews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060129/ZNYT04/601290363">www.hendersonvillenews.com</a></center>
The United Nations is looking for some professional assassins. There is a world of chickens out there that need killing, and it must be done neatly — and humanely.

With migratory birds spreading avian flu, the disease is popping up from Asia to Turkey and from Siberia to the Equator, often in spots that are isolated, rural and unprepared. 

Many governments, veterinary specialists say, know little about killing millions of animals — especially when the aim is to spill as little blood as possible and to dispose of the bodies so they cannot spread the highly contagious virus to birds or humans.

Problems are cropping up everywhere. In Vietnam, for example, home flocks range free across muddy rice paddies, where chasing them is next to impossible. High water tables mean they cannot be buried, and poor local farmers cannot spare the gasoline or wood to incinerate them.

In villages from China to Turkey, cullers wearing biohazard suits recruit barefoot children to catch chickens for them. Older children kick dying turkeys around like footballs or play with severed heads. Farmers hide prize roosters or bribe cullers to spare their flocks. Chickens are buried alive or burned alive.

"We need an international culling task force, a reliably robust, incorruptible public service to go around killing chickens," said Dr. David Nabarro, special representative for avian flu for the United Nations secretary general.

Dr. Juan Lubroth, senior animal health officer for the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, said he would like to have at least 20 more veterinarians right now to send to Indonesia and Turkey simply to train "brigades of cullers," and would need more for each country the disease reaches.

The total cost, he said, would depend on whether he can borrow government veterinarians from wealthy countries or has to hire privately, and whether he sends a few to lead workshops in the capital or dozens into small villages to supervise culling. He is also negotiating with a Dutch company to bring its portable chicken-killing machines to southeast Asia, he said.

Until recently, Dr. Lubroth said, he had no money for any of this. But since Jan. 18, when 33 nations and international institutions at a meeting in Beijing pledged $1.9 billion to fight avian flu, "all of a sudden, I'm able to make some decisions."

His agency already has advisers in the field, but they are overwhelmed.

Dr. Peter Roeder, a veterinarian for the United Nations agriculture agency who normally works out of Rome fighting rinderpest, a cattle virus, recently found himself fighting avian flu in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, which is still recovering from the 2004 tsunami.

The disease took Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous country, by surprise, he said. It had no response plan or clear chain of command for veterinarians, and it has endemic Newcastle disease, which mimics flu in chickens. Large producers protected their own flocks quickly, he said, but the flu became entrenched in "kampong chickens," the millions of free-roaming household birds that roost in trees.

"The virus got away before the first cases were detected," he said in a telephone interview.

When even one bird with the A(H5N1) virus is found on a farm, its flock and those in a large circle around it must be exterminated.

There are many ways to dispatch a chicken. Those approved by the Paris-based Organization for International Epizootics, which tracks diseases that cross between animals and humans, include firing bolts to the skull, shocking with bare electrodes, dipping in electrified baths, gassing with carbon dioxide or nitrogen, lethal injection or lacing feed with barbiturates. For small numbers, neck-breaking and decapitation are approved as long as the animals are already unconscious.

But poor countries cannot always afford such niceties, though some are using variants.

In Vietnam, said Dr. Tony Forman, a United Nations veterinarian consulting there, cullers have begun collecting chickens in large plastic bags and gassing them with carbon dioxide, which is available from any soda bottling plant.

In Thailand, said Dr. Wantanee Kalpravidh, the regional head of flu surveillance for the United Nations agriculture agency, cullers pack chickens into the backs of trucks and run in a hose from the tailpipe.

But in Indonesia, Dr. Roeder said, "Cullers kill in the traditional fashion — cutting their throats."

That is risky — cut hands can be infected by chicken blood, although there have not yet been any confirmed cases of avian flu among cullers.

Treating small farmers politely is also crucial, veterinary experts said.

Ann M. Veneman, a former United States agriculture secretary who is the new head of Unicef, is another advocate of creating a chicken-culling task force. She oversaw a yearlong fight against a major outbreak of Newcastle disease as California's secretary of food and agriculture in the 1990's.

Three million chickens on 22 broiler and egg operations had to be killed, she said, but what was harder was killing the 150,000 birds in 18,000 quarantined households.

"We didn't realize how many backyard birds there were, even in Los Angeles County," she said.

"Backyard birds" all over the world can flee faster than big-breasted commercial birds, and their owners are often very attached to them.

"People love their animals," said Dr. Richard Breitmeyer, the state veterinarian who oversaw the California culling. "In many cases, they were pets."

Although he had the legal right to enter properties without owners' permissions and to kill every bird, "We needed to treat the owners and birds with respect," he said. "Otherwise, in a backyard setting, it's pretty hard to ensure you're seeing all the birds."

But farmers persuaded to cooperate can collect roosting flocks at night, or lure them in with corn.

By contrast, said Dr. Roeder, Indonesian government teams often arrive in villages at midday, "when birds are running all over the place."

Then, he said, "They go in ordering people about with the attitude that the authorities know best."

Also, farmers will not cooperate without compensation, and most countries are paying relatively little.

In Turkey, farmers get up to $3.50 a chicken, which Dr. Lubroth, said was about 60 percent of market value. "But owners are getting only vouchers," he said in a telephone interview from Ankara. "I haven't seen cash change hands."

Vietnam pays $1, about half the market value there. Indonesia, which is wealthier, pays about 80 cents, less than a third of market value.

In China, the government officially pays 60 cents, and farmers complain that vouchers go unpaid.

In Cambodia and Laos, which are poor, farmers are offered only 10 percent to 20 percent of market value, and only for flocks, said Dr. Kalpravidh, the flu watcher in Thailand, "so we don't see much cooperation."

And in the case of fighting cocks — entrenched in southeast Asian culture and worth up to $5,000, she said — the breeders "sneak their chickens away," unwilling to sacrifice the cash or the bloodlines.

In the California Newcastle outbreak, Dr. Breitmeyer said, valuable fighting cocks were often found in Hispanic neighborhoods, and federal appraisers paid market value.

Dr. Lubroth favored paying close to market value for birds from infected flocks, slightly more for those from healthy flocks nearby, and nothing for dead birds — a plan that encourages farmers to cooperate promptly.

Disposing of the carcasses so they cannot be dug up and eaten by people, wild animals or scavenging birds is also important. Shallow graves and composting are discouraged, though Dr. Forman said he had seen farmers "piping methane out of compost piles and boiling tea with it." Furnace incineration is fine, but expensive. Open burning is not, and it is best not to truck birds from the killing site because the flu is so contagious that it can travel in dander and feathers blown off them.

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 29, 2006

=

<center>Ukraine Under Threat of Bird Flu Pandemic — Health Ministry

Created: 29.01.2006 18:16 MSK (GMT +3)
<A href="http://mosnews.com/news/2006/01/29/ukrflu.shtml">MosNews.com</a></center>
The possibility of a bird flu pandemic in Ukraine is high, but the country is ready to deal with it, the health minister quoted by RIA Novosti said Sunday.

Ukraine was among the countries where the possibility of a bird flu pandemic after the start of bird migration in the spring was high, Yuriy Polyachenko said in an interview with Ukrainian TV Channel 5. 

The Ukrainian Health Ministry, the Ministry of Emergencies and the State Borderguard Service are urgently developing a coordinated action plan to face the worst situation.

The Ukrainian autonomy of Crimea was hit with a bird flu outbreak in November 2005. According to official data, laboratory tests have confirmed bird flu cases in 23 locations in the autonomy and more than 150,000 domestic fowl have so far been culled in 40 locations around the Crimean peninsula.

New Freedom · Jan 29, 2006

OK, everyone......

who's going to win....

PCViking or The Flying Dutchman...... :lkick:

(just kidding, of course !!!)

In all seriousness, thanks you two, for all the research you do and the sorting out of all the articles on this subject......I really do appreciate it!!!

New Freedom · Jan 29, 2006

Quote:
"The United Nations is considering using "flu-casters," modeled on television weather forecasters, to publicize vital information if a global flu pandemic strikes.

They could broadcast latest developments from Emergency-response facilities at the U.N.'s World Health Organization in Geneva, according to David Nabarro, , the U.N.'s top influenza coordinator.

The flu-casters would draw out the maps and keep people engaged at regular intervals ... beaming it from the WHO bunker," Nabarro told Reuters in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The WHO's Geneva bunker, a $5 million facility built in a former cinema, is the world's nerve-center for tracking bird flu and other deadly diseases. "

Flu-casters??? You've got to be kidding?? OK, this is getting pretty creepy....

Sounds like NWO stuff to me.....

If this BF isn't too serious, then they're sure going to ALOT of trouble for nothing.....

Time to 'fasten up our seatbelts' folks......looks like a bumpy ride ahead!!! :sht:

The Flying Dutchman · Jan 29, 2006

New Freedom said:
OK, everyone......

who's going to win....

PCViking or The Flying Dutchman......

(just kidding, of course !!!)

In all seriousness, thanks you two, for all the research you do and the sorting out of all the articles on this subject......I really do appreciate it!!!

Speaking for myself;

<center>

</center>

PCVing has been gracious enough to take principal charge for the daily threads on H5N1. I try and help him find the news - he may have missed.

The situation in the ME could very well 'go south' on us at any time now. I am trying my very best to keep the TB members abrest of what is occuring over there (as well as the possiblility that we'll 'see' action inside the US sooner - than later).

ROTFLMAO - both PCViking and I sincerely hope that it is the TB2000 members who are on the winning side (FWIW - between the news hunters I have not mentioned - there are so many of them - and what PCVing and I can contribute.)

TB2000 once again has an up-to-date news forum.

And we get to see "tomorrow's broadcast MSN news - today" once more......

Perpetuity · Jan 29, 2006

One of the most important conclusions was that maintaining infrastructure - water, power and the provision of food - could take a higher priority than providing care to the sick, Nabarro told Reuters.

"It is maybe even more important to concentrate on the essentials of life for those who are living than it is to focus on the treatment of those who are sick," he said. "We learned a lot."

Creepy and ominous really are the right words when the talk centers on NOT treating the sick, but keeping utilities and what can be salvaged of civilization running and as intact as the situation will allow. To me, that sounds like the situation has already gone FUBARed if TPTB follow this plan...come on, not treating the sick??? Does this include not collecting those that have already died at home, etc.? What about secondary disease outbreaks that would occur from not treating the sick and leaving corpses around? What about those that are just injured...what about ANY necessary medical treatment not related to the flu, or can we just assume that the entire medical industry is going to be nonexistant or closed down...or will there be medical facilities only for the elite???

The pandemic preparations will call for novel approaches if officials are to limit the potential catastrophic damage - such as the use of mobile phone technology to distribute questionnaires and information, Nabarro said.

Wow...you may still have cell phone service, but die of infection from cutting yourself on a rusty metal can...are the priorities straight here? Plus, are cell phone companies going to keep service going if no one is paying their bills or if they don't have viable employees to keep service up and running? Whose going to be conducting these surveys and sifting through the data?

A pandemic could see travel and trade halted, workers forced to stay home, schools closed and a number of other dramatic measures designed to limit the spread.

The UN aims to forge fixed partnerships with key actors who would be involved in any pandemic response effort, which would include community groups, aid groups like the Red Cross, businesses and the media, Nabarro said.

"The focus on business is important. They have skills and can do things that governments cannot," he said. Clear communications would also be crucial.

Alrighty then...how many people will be going to work, even on necessary infastructure, when people are dropping like flies, unable to get medical help, etc.? Sounds like their plan has some catch-22s that still have to be ironed out. After all, medical care, especially during an epidemic, should still be considered a cornerstone of civilization. Can we read into this that if you get sick, tough crapola, you're just going to have to die so we can keep business as usual??? :kk2:

Also, if people aren't working, with no money coming in or going out, I don't think business will be operating...after all, money (not to mention employees and customers) is what keeps business operating. It may be a noble goal to keep critical infrastucture going, but if we can't keep the medical infastructure going, haven't we already lost a big battle in that war to keep it from going down the crapper?

I think this article (UN may use flu-casters in flu pandemic) is perhaps one of the most chilling that I've read concerning preparation for this flu. It's not only what's been said, but what is not being said in official print. In all honesty, it doesn't look good, even by TPTB's own admission.

And finally, how is the public at large going to handle all of this? If looking at how New Orleans was handled and the actions of those involved (general public), I don't think the response from the public is going to be one of calm and reserved actions. It doesn't matter how good of a "plan" is in place...if the masses get spooked and freak on a worldwide level, how will they be controlled? That's the unsaid part that scares me. I have yet to see or hear how goverments are going to control masses of population on a national and international level when they're scared and chaos reigns. Even if the world's militaries are used to control the general populace, those troops will still be affected by the flu, and will not be 100%. And how far will goverments go to keep control of their citizens? You know they've laid the plans...but no one is saying. Ominous indeed.

The world has changed drastically since the last global outbreaks, so what we can learn from them can only be loosely translated to todays situation. Infrastructure, populations, business, etc. are so intertwined now that any breakdown in one sector of it affects the whole in a larger way, creating even more of a domino effect. To keep it all running efficently today takes enormous effort, money, time and manpower, and to loose any of these variables can only result in a further degrading of the ability to keep civilzation running as we know it today. If and when this pandemic occurs at the level that governments are expecting, New Orleans will look like a picnic, and those countries that are more advanced technology wise will look more third world then we could ever imagine, IMHO. When the WHO starts getting twitchy, time to take notice and action. Seems like the writing is on the wall.

PCViking · Jan 29, 2006

Perpetuity said:
Creepy and ominous really are the right words when the talk centers on NOT treating the sick, but keeping utilities and what can be salvaged of civilization running and as intact as the situation will allow. To me, that sounds like the situation has already gone FUBARed if TPTB follow this plan...come on, not treating the sick??? Does this include not collecting those that have already died at home, etc.? What about secondary disease outbreaks that would occur from not treating the sick and leaving corpses around? What about those that are just injured...what about ANY necessary medical treatment not related to the flu, or can we just assume that the entire medical industry is going to be nonexistant or closed down...or will there be medical facilities only for the elite???

Wow...you may still have cell phone service, but die of infection from cutting yourself on a rusty metal can...are the priorities straight here? Plus, are cell phone companies going to keep service going if no one is paying their bills or if they don't have viable employees to keep service up and running? Whose going to be conducting these surveys and sifting through the data?

Alrighty then...how many people will be going to work, even on necessary infastructure, when people are dropping like flies, unable to get medical help, etc.? Sounds like their plan has some catch-22s that still have to be ironed out. After all, medical care, especially during an epidemic, should still be considered a cornerstone of civilization. Can we read into this that if you get sick, tough crapola, you're just going to have to die so we can keep business as usual??? Also, if people aren't working, with no money coming in or going out, I don't think business will be operating...after all, money (not to mention employees and customers) is what keeps business operating. It may be a noble goal to keep critical infrastucture going, but if we can't keep the medical infastructure going, haven't we already lost a big battle in that war to keep it from going down the crapper?

I think this article (UN may use flu-casters in flu pandemic) is perhaps one of the most chilling that I've read concerning preparation for this flu. It's not only what's been said, but what is not being said in official print. In all honesty, it doesn't look good, even by TPTB's own admission.

And finally, how is the public at large going to handle all of this? If looking at how New Orleans was handled and the actions of those involved (general public), I don't think the response from the public is going to be one of calm and reserved actions. It doesn't matter how good of a "plan" is in place...if the masses get spooked and freak on a worldwide level, how will they be controlled? That's the unsaid part that scares me. I have yet to see or hear how goverments are going to control masses of population on a national and international level when they're scared and chaos reigns. Even if the world's militaries are used to control the general populace, those troops will still be affected by the flu, and will not be 100%. And how far will goverments go to keep control of their citizens? You know they've laid the plans...but no one is saying. Ominous indeed.

The world has changed drastically since the last global outbreaks, so what we can learn from them can only be loosely translated to todays situation. Infrastructure, populations, business, etc. are so intertwined now that any breakdown in one sector of it affects the whole in a larger way, creating even more of a domino effect. To keep it all running efficently today takes enormous effort, money, time and manpower, and to loose any of these variables can only result in a further degrading of the ability to keep civilzation running as we know it today. If and when this pandemic occurs at the level that governments are expecting, New Orleans will look like a picnic, and those countries that are more advanced technology wise will look more third world then we could ever imagine, IMHO. When the WHO starts getting twitchy, time to take notice and action. Seems like the writing is on the wall.

Perpetuity, it appears you're getting it (GI)...

Some days the H5N1 news is a person dying here or there, or some sick birds, or did this person get it from another person, or from their poultry? Then this kind of news leaks out... which is why I took the effort to identify the past couple of months of threads... the political stuff, if the fodder of nightmares. Yes, they are more concerned about the infrastructure than anything else... but, does that also say our entire economic system is a 'house of cards'? I've said it before and I'll say it again... watching the H5N1 situation unravel before our eyes, is like a real-life Tom Clancey novel... except it's not a book. Someone else has a poll going about what threat's most emminent... I think it's a combo... once BF hits, other stuff will hit the fan... I've been stocking my pantry, have you been stocking yours?

:vik:

BREWER · Jan 29, 2006

BREWER

Gentlemen: PCViking and Dutch et allia. A thousand thanks for the organization at the top of the post for all the members new and old here at TB2000.
Perpetuity-Welcome. I read your thoughts and agree on several/many points. God help us all when this virus goes efficient H2H. "We are on our own" will take on new meaning and be inextricably tied to location, location, etc... :chg:

BUMP, Bump, bump

New Freedom · Jan 29, 2006

Perpetuity said:
I think this article (UN may use flu-casters in flu pandemic) is perhaps one of the most chilling that I've read concerning preparation for this flu. It's not only what's been said, but what is not being said in official print. In all honesty, it doesn't look good, even by TPTB's own admission.

I agree !

summerthyme · Jan 29, 2006

The simple fact is, there doesn't appear to be much we'll be able to do as far as "treating the sick", if it ever progresses beyond the "one or two people at a time" stage.

The people who are surviving this are doing so because of immensely huge expenditures of time, money and medical resources. Of course, many are dying even after similar expenditures.

Unfortunately, those resources simply don't exist for more than a very few patients... even in the wealthiest and most "highly developed" nations in the world.

It may well be that more lives will be saved by a concentrated effort to keep the infrastructure running- if that's possible- rather than attempting to save the sick... who, if the mortality rate holds.. are going to die 50% of the time no matter what you do.

Besides... if you don't keep the infrastructure intact- if you don't have electricity, running CLEAN water (keep the chemicals supplied to the water treatment plants) and keep the food supplies up, you won't save ANYONE... because hospitals won't be able to run, either.

Absolutely, this possible pandemic will show the true value of prepping... and prayer. Survival may well hinge on simply not needing to make contact with the public for several weeks, for ANY reason.

Thanks, all, for keeping this updated and getting the news out. Maybe some people will get it in time to prepare to survive.

Summerthyme

01/29 | Daily H5N1 / Bird Flu / Avian Influenza Thread... "Flu-Casters"

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