12/16 H5N1 | Shortages of Food, Meds, Essential Services During Pandemic

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Flu pandemic could mean food shortages, peers warn </font>

James Meikle, health correspondent
Friday December 16, 2005
<A href="http://politics.guardian.co.uk/publicservices/story/0,11032,1668731,00.html">The Guardian </a></center>

A flu pandemic could spark food shortages and panic buying as key workers such as truck drivers fell ill and were unable to make vital deliveries, peers warned yesterday.</b>
Better contingency planning was needed to ensure oil and food supplies were protected and the health service avoided collapse, and millions more doses of antiviral drugs should probably be ordered to quell the threat if a global health catastrophe hit Britain, they said.

A House of Lords inquiry questioned whether the 14.6m courses of drugs ordered to arrive by the summer would be enough. Peers were also concerned at "half-hearted" support for international efforts to limit the bird flu outbreaks in south-east Asia.
Lord Broers, who chaired the Lords science and technology committee inquiry, insisted it was not "highly critical" of the government. Britain was among the best prepared countries if avian flu mutated into a pandemic form. "However, we would still be in a mess," he said. The government needed to issue fuller guidance to frontline health workers and to protect other essential services such as food distribution networks. "We need stronger cross-departmental leadership, with a cabinet-level minister for contingency planning."

He told a press conference the Cabinet Office had chosen not to send a minster to the inquiry. "In the event of a pandemic, the health service could see over a million new cases a day. There is a risk the service could collapse under the strain."

Lord Mitchell warned that if a pandemic occurred, "it is going to affect everybody in all walks of life. Distribution networks, as we saw through the [2002] petrol crisis, are very finely balanced, and any interruption can affect it quite dramatically. In the case of food being delivered, the people who drive lorries, who stack goods in the supermarket, if there is absenteeism of a third or something like that, it will have a significant effect."

Lord Broers said ministers had ordered enough antivirals to treat a quarter of the population after they fell ill, on the assumption that a future pandemic would be similar to previous outbreaks. "Next time could be worse, or it could be better."

The Department of Health later said a new cabinet committee chaired by the health secretary, Patricia Hewitt, would co-ordinate cross-government working "at the highest level." Pandemic plans, including those for antivirals, were very flexible and under constant review.

A House of Lords inquiry questioned whether the 14.6m courses of drugs ordered to arrive by the summer would be enough. Peers were also concerned at "half-hearted" support for international efforts to limit the bird flu outbreaks in south-east Asia.
Lord Broers, who chaired the Lords science and technology committee inquiry, insisted it was not "highly critical" of the government. Britain was among the best prepared countries if avian flu mutated into a pandemic form. "However, we would still be in a mess," he said. The government needed to issue fuller guidance to frontline health workers and to protect other essential services such as food distribution networks. "We need stronger cross-departmental leadership, with a cabinet-level minister for contingency planning."

He told a press conference the Cabinet Office had chosen not to send a minster to the inquiry. "In the event of a pandemic, the health service could see over a million new cases a day. There is a risk the service could collapse under the strain."

Lord Mitchell warned that if a pandemic occurred, "it is going to affect everybody in all walks of life. Distribution networks, as we saw through the [2002] petrol crisis, are very finely balanced, and any interruption can affect it quite dramatically. In the case of food being delivered, the people who drive lorries, who stack goods in the supermarket, if there is absenteeism of a third or something like that, it will have a significant effect."

Lord Broers said ministers had ordered enough antivirals to treat a quarter of the population after they fell ill, on the assumption that a future pandemic would be similar to previous outbreaks. "Next time could be worse, or it could be better."

The Department of Health later said a new cabinet committee chaired by the health secretary, Patricia Hewitt, would co-ordinate cross-government working "at the highest level." Pandemic plans, including those for antivirals, were very flexible and under constant review.

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Rethink preparedness</font>

December 15 2005
<A href="http://www.parsonssun.com/news/articles/121405preparations.html">ParsonsSun.com</a></center>

Daily headlines include scare stories about terrorism and, most recently, a potential outbreak of avian flu. While these are real threats it's important to ask what price we are willing to pay to be prepared for disasters that may never come.</b>

Disaster looms at every corner. It always has and always will, but is it really necessary for the government to throw billions of dollars at an unseen threat when Americans daily disregard equally deadly issues over which they do have control?

The United States has spent astronomical amounts of money to improve our defenses against terrorists to the point that cuticle scissors are confiscated in airports and small rural counties are the recipients of weapons they will likely never use. Millions of dollars are being spent to have emergency stocks of vaccine in case avian flu crosses the Pacific.

In case.

Using reasonable means to prepare a nation for disaster through education is far more responsible than throwing money at a problem so government officials can later lament they tried. Education always works best, even if it is the most challenging solution.

People tend to think of epidemics in this country as history. Yellow fever, cholera, polio, Spanish influenza (which was the worst U.S. epidemic, killing more than 500,000 in 1918) and others were certainly destructive forces. But epidemics haven't ended, nor are the current ones less deadly.

More than a half million people have died of AIDS since 1981. That's an epidemic, but few have rushed to champion it. More than 900,000 people die of heart disease every year, and 6 million are hospitalized annually. Diabetes killed 224,000 people last year and 21 million Americans are at risk of dying from it today.

In spite of better focusing on the deaths from these known killers, the government is distracted with efforts to prevent possibilities, throwing tax money at a flu that may never hit our shores and in pulling cuticle scissors out of suitcases.

Disaster looms everywhere, every day and never will the effort be enough to eradicate it. With that as a given, it's time to reassess whether it's more important to deal most aggressively with the disaster that might be or the ones that already exist.

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<B><center><A href="http://www.warwickonline.com/news/searchnews.asp?ID=9070">WARWICK</a>
12/13/2005

<font size=+1 color=green>Bird flu wouldn't idle essential city services, plan offers </font>

By MARK SILBERSTEIN
The so-called “worst case scenario” that governments examine to prepare for catastrophic situations get a lot of attention, but they’re rarely employed, a fact that probably makes the population of any community rest easier at night. In Warwick, administration and public safety officials hope a draft plan to maintain essential city services in the event of an influenza pandemic will do the same.</b>

The plan was developed at the request of Mayor Scott Avedisian by Warwick Fire Department Chief Jack Chartier, who is also the city’s Emergency Management coordinator.

His report follows a challenge issued earlier this year by Governor Don Carcieri that each city and town develop such a plan in the event of an influenza pandemic, asking copies be in the hands of the state Department of Health and the Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency before the end of this month.

“If, in the event that a state of emergency is declared in the city, the Warwick Emergency Management Agency would convene daily meetings to assess city conditions and staffing levels; would work cooperatively with and among other departments to ensure that staffing plans are being maintained and gaps in services addressed; and would confer with the state’s EMA to determine the availability of outside resources, if necessary,” were some of the results addressed in the committee’s report, a press release issued by Avedisian’s office stated.

“Decisions to close schools would rest with the superintendent, in consultation with the mayor,” the recommendations contained in the draft report continued.

“The committee also outlined how various municipal departments would be staffed in the event that a pandemic temporarily decimated the ranks of municipal workers. Departments such as police, fire, water and sewer, which operate around-the-clock, have plans in place to ensure continual, effective staffing for the health and public safety of all Warwick residents,” according to the mayor’s office.

“Larger departments, such as Public Works, would rely on workers within each division to fill necessary gaps throughout the department, the committee suggested. Other departments, such as the City Clerk’s, Personnel, Finance, Tax Collector’s and Assessor’s offices, would function with a skeleton crew. Non-essential services would, if necessary, be temporarily suspended,” the release states.

“Other divisions, such as the Board of Canvassers, Youth Services, Community and Economic Development and community and senior centers, could temporarily close if necessary and those employees used, when applicable, to help out in other departments. Thayer arena and McDermott pool would be closed,” the statement said.

The mayor stressed that the plan has been drafted, “not to alarm the public, but to assure them that we are ready to work cooperatively with the state and within our municipal government to ensure that critical emergency and other public safety and health needs will continue to be met, and that the city will continue to function in the event of a pandemic.”

Yesterday, the mayor said the report was subject to continued modifications, and that city officials would await details of the state’s overall response plan before looking at further needs in Warwick.

“How are we going to make sure we can provide the services that we need to,” Avedisian said was the emphasis of the draft plan he received last week, with public safety among the top priorities.

“If we were to have a full scale outbreak, we can expect to have up to 50-percent absenteeism,” Chartier said yesterday of the potential impact the bird flu could have on municipal staffing.

Instances of the so-called bird flu have been restricted to Asian countries where of 123 people who contracted the virus 60 died. Thus far, the virus has not mutated so as to be communicable between humans. Should, and if that happens, it is expected to be far less virulent but nonetheless capable of killing millions of people worldwide.

“This is not a plan to address illness within the civilian population,” he said, explaining the draft guidelines answer problematic questions of how to keep critical services operational, including police, fire, and public works – including water and sewer.

Obviously, Chartier pointed out, it doesn’t mean that a Parks and Recreation Department employee would be drafted to handle law enforcement duties. Instead, the plan offers realistic solutions to sustain levels of employees necessary to maintain essential city functions, and how and where available manpower would be found to fill those roles.

Avedisian said that it was crucial to make sure that the people who reside in Warwick are provided some measure of confidence that, despite the potential impact bird flu could have on the city’s overall workforce, that supplemental measures would be in place to provide for a continuity of essential services.

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Action Needed On Bird Flu</font>

Updated: 01:28, Friday December 16, 2005
<A href="http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-1206284,00.html?f=rss">sky.com</a></center>
Britain must improve its contingency planning for a possible bird flu outbreak and give greater support to global efforts to prevent a pandemic.</b>

A parliamentary committee claims say a flu pandemic among humans could kill millions around the globe and cause major economic losses.

The deadly H5N1 virus is endemic in poultry in parts of Asia where it has killed 71 people since late 2003.

The committee said Britain should contribute more to improve surveillance of avian flu in Asia and ensure a rapid response to an outbreak of a new virus strain to prevent it spreading.

It also said Britain should urgently look at how antiviral drugs can best be used, revise its purchasing policy and provide more detailed guidance for health workers.

"A flu pandemic looks likelier now than at any time since the 1960s," said Lord Broers, chairman of the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee said.

"But it's not inevitable and with coordinated international action it can still be prevented.

"The government must put its weight behind UN agencies working in south east Asia."

He said Britain had a head start on many countries in contingency planning but "could still do better".

He has suggested the creation of a cabinet-level post with responsibility for contingency planning.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Initial tests show Indonesian man died of bird flu</font>

(AFP)
16 December 2005
<A href="http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2005/December/theworld_December451.xml&section=theworld&col=">Khaleej Times</a></center>

JAKARTA - Initial tests have shown that a 39-old man who died this week had bird flu but further local tests were being carried out to validate the finding, an Indonesian health official said on Friday.</b>

If confirmed, the man would be the 10th fatality from avian influenza in Indonesia. An eight-year-old boy who died Thursday is suspected of being the country’s 11th victim.

“We are doing further tests here to validate earlier tests. We need to be assured that this is a bird flu case,” said Hariyadi Wibisono, director for vector-borne disease control at the health ministry.

At the same time, samples from the man were also being tested in a Hong Kong laboratory accredited by the World Health Organisation to determine if he died of the H5N1 strain of bird flu, he said.

The victim, who lived in South Jakarta, died Tuesday after being admitted the previous day to the Sulianti Saroso hospital, Indonesia’s main bird flu treatment center.

Most victims have come from the capital Jakarta and surrounding provinces. Millions of poultry have also died in scattered outbreaks across the archipelago of more than 17,000 islands.

Indonesia’s health system, already overstretched by last year’s deadly tsunami and a reemergence of polio, has been under strain preparing for a potential major outbreak of avian influenza.

The bird flu virus has killed more than 70 people in Asia since 2003.

Scientists warn that continued contact between infected birds and humans may eventually result in the virus mutating into a form that could be easily passed on by humans, sparking a pandemic that could kill millions.

Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous nation, was accused of covering up initial outbreaks of bird flu.

It has pledged a year-long fight against the virus with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono overseeing plans being drawn up to involve millions of people monitoring for the virus at village level.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>U.S. working to keep out deadly bird flu - USDA</font>

Fri Dec 16, 2005 9:17 AM IST
By Bob Burgdorfer
<A href="http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-12-16T085140Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-228211-1.xml&archived=False">Reuters - Business</a></center>

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The fight to keep the deadly bird flu out of the United States has scientists checking migratory birds on the West Coast, monitoring live bird markets here, and working with Asian scientists to fight the disease overseas, said a U.S. agriculture official on Thursday.</b>

"I think we are all very aware that it certainly could happen through the migratory bird patterns that fly up from the Russian peninsula over to the Alaskan peninsula and fly down that Western coast," Richard Raymond, USDA's undersecretary for food safety, said in a telephone interview.

As a result, scientists are testing migratory birds on the West Coast for the disease, he said.

The H5N1 bird flu strain in Asia and parts of Europe has been blamed for about 70 human deaths overseas.

The United States has had milder forms of the bird flu, but not the deadly strain in Asia. However, there are concerns it could arrive here via migrating birds or by the illegal importation of birds.

The flu can be transferred from birds to people, but scientists believe it may eventually mutate and move from person to person. If that happens, they fear a global pandemic in which millions of people would be at risk.

The virus can be killed by cooking and as a result, fully cooked chicken is safe to eat, said Raymond.

"As far as coming in from any other route, it would involve live birds being illegally shipped into this country from countries that have the highly pathogenic Asian influenza," he said.

Importing these birds would be illegal because the United States bans such imports from countries with the disease.

Inspectors have long been concerned that live bird markets here could spread various types of disease.

"That's why we do the surveillance and have done the surveillance long before the H5N1 in Asia became so prominent," he said of the live bird markets.

Since 2003, the H5N1 strain has been found in South Korea, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Mongolia, Indonesia, Turkey, Romania, Russia, and possibly in Laos.

The outbreaks overseas have caused the death or forced the destruction of an estimated 150 million birds.

"I think the firewalls are in place to keep that virus from getting into this country other than the migratory flyways," said Raymond.

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<B><center>Friday, 16 December 2005, 03:42 GMT
BBC News</a>

<font size=+1 color=brown>Lords attack UK's bird flu plans </font></center></b>

<i>It warned of food shortages if shops were not properly prepared, and urged a clearer policy on antiviral drugs and better guidance for frontline workers.

It also urged more focus on South East Asia. Ministers said preparing for a possible pandemic was a "top priority". </i>

<b>A new Cabinet committee to deal with bird flu was set up on Thursday.

Top level plans 'excellent' </b>

The Lords committee says the government's flu pandemic plans are an "excellent top-level account of the UK health service response to a pandemic".

We are alarmed at the risk of serious disruption to food supplies

Lords' Science and Technology committee
But it says more needs to be done at "lower levels", such as advice for primary care groups and GPs and local authorities.

It said a pandemic would affect not only hospitals, but every branch of social life including schools, transport and food supplies.

It said: "We are alarmed at the risk of serious disruption to food supplies, and at the lack of contact between the government and the major food retailers.

"The government urgently needs to address the resilience of food distribution networks."

It also says the government should also strengthen its backing of international efforts to prevent a flu pandemic on South East Asia, to "nip it in the bud".

The H5N1 virus, which has killed 71 people, is common among domestic birds in this area, and is therefore an area where a mutation could occur which would create a pandemic virus.

A flu pandemic looks likelier now than at any time since the 1960s, but... with co-ordinated international action it can still be prevented

The report called for better surveillance, through organisations such as the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN and the World Health Organization; plans for a rapid response to any outbreak of a new strain in humans, and more funding for international healthcare projects.

On antiviral drugs, the report echoes recent calls by leading adviser Professor Neil Fergusson for the UK government to consider using the antiviral drug Tamiflu as a preventative treatment.

Currently, the government is stockpiling 14.6m courses of the drug, with the aim of using it as a treatment to limit the effects of flu on those already ill.

More investment into vaccine research, particularly ways in which a vaccine could be ready faster, is also needed, the report says.

'Head start'

Lord Broers, who chaired the committee's inquiry, said: "A flu pandemic looks likelier now than at any time since the 1960s.

"But it's not inevitable, and with co-ordinated international action it can still be prevented."

Preparing for a flu pandemic is a top priority and we have strong plans in place to respond

Health Minister Rosie Winterton

He added: "The UK has got a head start on many countries in flu contingency planning.

"But the government could still do better, both by issuing fuller guidance to frontline health workers, and by protecting other essential services, such as food distribution networks.

"Overall, we need stronger cross-departmental leadership, with a cabinet-level minister for contingency planning."

In a separate development, a World Health Organization expert, Richard Laing, told a National Institute for Clinical Excellence conference that uptake of the annual flu jab in the UK needed to increase, GP magazine reports.

He said this would mean vaccine manufacturing capacity would need to increase, ensuring companies were capable of making a vaccine for a pandemic virus.

'Strong plans in place'

Health Minister Rosie Winterton said: "Preparing for a flu pandemic is a top priority and we have strong plans in place to respond.

"We are working closely with other government departments and we have set up a new Cabinet committee, chaired by the health secretary, which will guide preparations and coordinate, at the highest level, cross-government working on this issue."

Ms Winterton said the UK government was already working closely with other governments around the world, and with the WHO to follow developments in South East Asia.

She added that the UK had contributed £500,000 to WHO to support surveillance work in the region.

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<B><center>December 16, 2005
<A href="http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200512/16/eng20051216_228358.html">People's Daily.com</a>

<font size=+1 color=green>Europe to be prepared for flu pandemic by 2007: agency</font></center>

Europe should be prepared to face a flu pandemic by 2007, Radio Sweden reported on Thursday, quoting an European Union agency tasked with boosting defenses against infectious diseases. </b>

"I think that in one year's time we'll be more or less ready," said Zsuzsanna Jakab, director of the Stockholm-based Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), amid growing fears of a deadly bird flu outbreak on the continent.

Speaking at a news conference Wednesday marking the one year anniversary of the creation of the ECDC, Jakab said the center over the past 12 months had "made a major step forward" in mapping national preparedness plans and determining who is responsible for what.

Today, "we know where our weaknesses lie and it is very clear what the national governments are expected to do," she said.

Her comments came as Romania reported that several dozen new cases of a bird flu virus had been confirmed in the country, sparking new fears that Europe could soon face a massive outbreak of the virus in humans.

The deadly H5N1 strain of the virus has so far killed nearly 70 people across Asia who have come in contact with sick birds, and if the virus mutates to transmit between humans it could kill millions, according to the World Health Organization.

European Commission director of public health Fernand Sauer agreed that Europe would soon be prepared to face a flu pandemic.

"Over the next couple of months, I think Europe will be much better off than any other continent to face a pandemic," he said at the Stockholm news conference on Wednesday.

Over coming months, the European Commission will look into creating a "European strategic stock" of vaccines to supplement the national supplies and attempt to shorten vaccine production times, Sauer said.

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Bump to put it on the main board

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As with all things; it would appear that H5N1 has
run it's 'interest course' with the members. And
seeing as it takes severalhours to compose one
of these things.



I guess I'll retire this one; and give it all a rest
for a spell. Unless someting BIG goes down, that is.</center>

Shakey,
I appreciate every post that you share with us on the bird flu. I read every one of them. However, I really don't have much to add. You cover it throughly.
Thank-you again for the posts.
Herbgarden

Don't disappear, Shakey!

I know many of us rely on the research you have been doing these past months. I really do. I'm working 12 to 14 hours a day right now in a business that will be devastated by a pandemic of this kind, and I cannot possibly get the information so completely as I can right here. For me, it's a heads up, and I am most grateful.

As I said before, I have a direct connection to the CDC through my local health inspector who will alert me if there is anything going on which I must know in order to start saving many lives. Your work will be prepping me ahead of that call and that is very cool.

Thanks again. And even though I can't get online during the day, I have bumped your threads to keep them front and center when I am able to get to TB.


Seabird

I have read many articles here and other places that talk about the possible disruption of the delivery of food etc. if drivers become ill. Do they think that the food comes out of the air and then is delivered by truck? How about the people that raise it, grow it, process it and package it? The farms and factories will not be producing as much. Delivery is a secondary problem compared to that.

Shortages of Food, Meds, Essential Services During Pandemic ,

Shortages, if not here now, will happen faster than most people think.

Have you tried to get paper tissues from your local regular supply during a flu outbreak ? Mostly empty cartons and prices were up.

It took US vendor 9 weeks to get Sambucol from Israel and ship to me.

From emials and delivery times it is obvious that most major US vendors do not stock the items that they sell. Others offer to sell in limited quantities.

The test for contingency plans is training. If a person has not ben trained to do another job, it may look good on paper, but try to sit in front of someone elses computer and do their job --- now what is their password ? ---cant get to square 1.


AG