01/27 | Bird Flu Poses Threat To International Security

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Bird Flu Poses Threat To International Security, Illinois Scholar Says
27 Jan 2006

In the past, when government leaders, policymakers and scholars have turned their attention to peace and security issues, the talk invariably has focused on war, arms control or anti-terrorism strategies. But Julian Palmore believes it's time to expand the scope of the conversation.

"One thing that is not talked about enough is infectious diseases," said Palmore, a mathematics professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the director of the university's Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security. "Of course, the spread of AIDS has been and continues to be a major concern worldwide," he said, "but an even greater threat, with regard to international security, may well be avian influenza," or bird flu, as it's commonly called.

And while biologists, epidemiologists and other scientists are engaged in efforts to better understand how the disease is contracted and spread in animals and in humans, Palmore said world leaders and policymakers need to seriously consider the potential international security implications that would result from an avian influenza pandemic.

"Natural disasters, especially pandemics, can and do affect international security in many ways," the U. of I. professor wrote in an article titled "Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza: A Clear and Present Danger to International Security," scheduled for publication in an upcoming issue of the journal Defense & Security Analysis.

"They can have disastrous effects on countries' economies, infrastructures, populations, public health and stability. As a consequence of natural disasters, governments may fail and populations may be decimated.

"Thus," Palmore writes, "planning for international security needs must take into account the effects of natural disasters.

"Since avian influenza is of utmost concern in Asia and in many other parts of the world, it is imperative that states' governments and nongovernmental organizations pay attention to the evolution of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus."

Palmore, who also addresses this topic in a brief critical commentary in the March issue of Defense and Security Analysis, said avian flu poses a potential threat to human security on two fronts.

Because the virus attacks poultry, in effect, it attacks economies by wiping out the foodstocks of affected nations. Both the poultry and tourism industries in China and other Southeast Asian countries where the virus has been detected already have been disrupted by outbreaks of bird flu.

And in today's global marketplace, such disruptions could have broader, more long-lasting consequences, as economic ripple effects could impact other countries as well.

To date, only 80 deaths have been attributed to avian flu worldwide by the World Health Organization, and those deaths have resulted from human contact with infected birds. But, Palmore said, the greatest looming threat to international security is a scenario in which the virus mutates in an abrupt manner, resulting in human-to-human transmission.

If that occurred, he said, the number of human deaths tallied would likely be "on a wider scale than any attack by humans on humans other than nuclear war."

"People think of international security as things people do or don't do," Palmore said. But, he noted, the consequences of infectious-disease outbreaks and natural disasters can be equally severe. We've recently witnessed the effects of just one tidal wave … one hurricane. And as devastating as those occurrences have been, they are not ongoing events over an 18-month period."

While theories on how the avian flu is transmitted and spread among poultry and other fowl remain inconclusive, Palmore said scientists suspect that migratory birds play a major role.

Ducks, geese and other waterfowl -- including those migrating from Asia to Europe and others using flyways that take them from Asia to the United States through Alaska and Canada -- "pose a significant delivery system for avian influenza as they infect domestic birds, then animals by droppings laden with viruses," he said.

So, what can the world's populations do to arm themselves against such a potentially destructive, yet virtually invisible, enemy?

"We cannot stop or divert this delivery system," he said. "What we can do is detect and prevent transmission from domesticated animals to humans as animal infections become apparent through intensive surveillance."

Such efforts already are under way in various locations, Palmore said, including in the United States where volunteers from wildlife organizations are monitoring local bird populations for disease.

But government officials need to step up their efforts as well, he said -- even if that means shifting national-security priorities somewhat.

"The international community is right to recognize the threat posed by international terrorism, but not at the expense of threats such as avian influenza," Palmore said. "For this reason the threat to human life -- worldwide -- must be prioritized and resources allocated accordingly. By strengthening the surveillance and detection of avian influenza the public health organizations will provide an early warning to the onset of an avian influenza epidemic. In turn this warning may provide the opportunity to limit the spread of a virus that has mutated into a form that allows efficient human to human transmission, thereby thwarting a pandemic."

Palmore plans travel to the United Kingdom in March to participate in a conference on international collaboration on planning for pandemics at Wilton Park, Steyning, West Sussex.

Melissa Mitchell, News Editor
melissa@uiuc.edu
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
http://ottsun.canoe.ca/News/2006/01/25/1410363-sun.html

UN urges nations to prepare for pandemic

By AP




GENEVA -- Countries must speed up preparations to deal with an "inevitable" human influenza pandemic, which could strike soon, a senior United Nations official warned yesterday.


David Nabarro, the UN co-ordinator on avian and human influenza, said countries must work fast because the H5N1 strain of bird flu could mutate into a form that spreads easily between people much faster than some officials seem to believe.

Experts fear that a mutation in the virus, which has ravaged poultry stocks across Asia since late 2003 and killed at least 82 people worldwide, could spark a pandemic, killing millions of people.

"I say to them please act as though it's going to start tomorrow. Don't keep putting off the difficult issues," Nabarro said on the sidelines of the World Health Organization's annual week-long executive board meeting. "It may not be months, it could mean we are going to get human-to-human transmission tomorrow."

So far, the virus remains hard for people to catch, with most human cases traced to contact with infected birds. The UN health agency has confirmed 151 human cases in the last three years.

But when asked if he believed a human flu pandemic was inevitable, Nabarro answered: "Yes."

TAMIFLU BEST DEFENCE

He was asked specifically about Swiss pharmaceutical Roche Holding AG's drug Tamiflu, which experts believe would be the best defence in the initial phases of any global influenza pandemic.

Roche owns the right to produce and supply Tamiflu, but it has come under increasing international pressure to ease its monopoly grip on the drug as governments have sought to increase their stockpiles.

Under World Trade Organization rules, countries can issue so-called "compulsory licences" to disregard patent rights, but only after negotiating with the patent owners and paying them adequate compensation. If they declare a public health emergency, governments can skip the negotiating.
Previous story: Size does matter in bat cave, study finds
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
http://today.reuters.com/investing/...ST_0_BIRDFLU-VACCINE.XML&pageNumber=1&summit=

New bird flu shot took just a month to make -study
Thu Jan 26, 2006 6:40 PM ET


They did not use the actual H5N1 virus -- just genetic sequence data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "We have the technique to go from an e-mail to a virus," Gambotto said.

They artificially generated the DNA coding for the hemagglutinin gene -- which controls a protein found on the surface of all influenza viruses and provides the "H" in a virus's name.

"We generated the portion that we think was important for immunity," Gambotto said. "We never manipulated the actual H5N1 virus ourselves, so it is safe to generate this kind of vaccine."

They then spliced this artificial DNA into a human adenovirus, a common cold virus.

Tests in mice and chickens showed it provided partial protection when given nasally, and 100 percent protection against H5N1 when injected, they report in the Feb. 15 issue of the Journal of Virology.

And it produced what is known as a dual immunological response -- the body generated both antibodies to neutralize the virus, and T-cells, a kind of immune cell that also attacks viruses.

"That means there is a lot of chance of getting cross-reactivity," Gambotto said. In other words, the vaccine may work against mutated versions of the flu virus, something current vaccines cannot do. This is why the flu vaccine now must be reformulated every year.

Gambotto also hopes the nasal vaccine might work better in people than it did in animals, because the vaccine uses a live human adenovirus.

His team is working with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to get approval to move ahead with human trials.

The University has the technology to make and test its own vaccines. "Eventually we will need to partner with a company for large-scale production of vaccine," Gambotto said.
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
http://www.kristv.com/Global/story.asp?S=4417937

Feds warn mayors to make their own preparations for bird flu pandemic

WASHINGTON A federal health official has warned a gathering of mayors that they cannot expect the federal government to save their cities in the event of a bird flu pandemic.
That warning was given at a Washington meeting of the U-S Conference of Mayors by Alex Azar, deputy secretary for the Department of Health and Human Services. Azar says any community that fails to prepare for a possible pandemic "will be tragically wrong."

But Lima (LY'-muh), Ohio, Mayor David Berger and other leaders say that many Americans are focusing on essentials like jobs, education and transportation.

A flu virus currently circulating among birds, the H-Five-N-One virus, has infected 148 people and killed 79, mostly in Southeast Asia. Scientists are concerned the virus could mutate and travel from person to person, which could lead to a pandemic.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,,1696021,00.html


Bird flu 'could be 21st-century Black Death'

· Economists predict rioting and flight from cities
· Markets not prepared for risks occurring together

Larry Elliott in Davos
Friday January 27, 2006
The Guardian

Avian flu has the potential to develop into a global pandemic that would be as devastating as the Black Death of the 14th century, the World Economic Forum warned yesterday in its assessment of the risks threatening stability and prosperity.

In a worst-case outcome, experts charged with weighing up systemic dangers said there might be riots to gain access to supplies of vaccines, a collapse of public order, a partial flight from the cities and large-scale migration. The report published at the WEF's annual meeting in Davos said there was only a small risk of a return to the economic and social chaos caused by the Black Death, and it would only occur if bird flu conflated with other risks to the global community.

Article continues
"An outbreak of H5NI [avian flu] human to human transmission could have devastating impacts globally across all social and economic sectors, disrupting efficient processes, severely degrading response capabilities and exacerbating the effects of known weaknesses in different systems," said the report.

The assessment, undertaken by risk experts at the insurance companies Swiss Re and Marsh and McLennan (MMC), and Merrill Lynch, identified terrorism, an oil-price spike, natural disasters and a bird-flu pandemic as the big threats in 2006. It added that the speed at which global risks travelled thanks to globalisation could lead to "rapid and unexpected contagion of global risks across industries and geographical areas. The interplay of multiple global risks and their combined ripple effects can create potentially disastrous "perfect storms" - cumulative events which cause damage far in excess of the sum of each individual risk event."

Avian flu has spread from China as far west as eastern Europe and the number of deaths caused has been relatively small. The WEF report said nevertheless that there was a remote chance that bird flu could have far more dramatic effects. "These impacts might include the disruption of supply chains and trade flows; an exacerbation of financial imbalances and the transformation of intellectual property regimes for pharmaceutical products; rioting to gain access to scarce supplies of antivirals and vaccines; a collapse of public order; partial de-urbanisation as people flee population centres; the extinction of trust in governments; decimation of specific human skill sets; and forced, large-scale migration, associated with the further collapse of already weak states."

It added: "In such a scenario, the impact on society might be as profound as that which followed the Black Death in Europe in 1348. That plague caused a fundamental transformation of socio-economic relations in Europe."

Kevan Watts, chairman of Merrill Lynch International, and one of the authors of the report, said he doubted whether financial markets were prepared for a situation in which all risks conflated. "Markets are not assuming pain in the near term at the severe end of the spectrum."

Drawing a comparison with August 1914, Mr Watts added the markets had been taken completely by surprise by the outbreak of the first world war, failing to spot that hostilities were about to start even on the last day of peace. The report called for international collaboration, with governments, the private sector, inter-governmental organisations and parts of civil society joining together to mitigate risks. Christian Mumenthaler, chief risk officer at Swiss Re, said there was a tendency to spend too little on a problem when it was only a threat and then spending billions solving the problem once it had become fully developed.

Although the WEF report said bird flu was the risk most preoccupying global business and political leaders in early 2006, it stressed that the geo-political landscape was still dominated by the risk (real and perceived) of terrorism. "The capacity of terrorist organisations to act globally in a coordinated way has diminished, but the risks of localised terror remain high. Should an attack incorporate chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, or target critical infrastructure, the human and economic costs will bring new pressures to bear on public policy."

The report said there was a "high risk" (above 20%) of the oil price rising above $80 (£45) a barrel this year, and that this could cost the global economy between $250 bn and $1 trillion. There was a less than 1% risk of the price reaching $100.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
http://www.johnbatchelorshow.com/article.cfm?id=2682&start=1

Why Revive a Deadly Flu Virus?
By Jamie Shreeve from The New York Times Magazine
Posted January 26, 2006

One morning last August, Terrence Tumpey, a research scientist at the Centers for

Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, walked into a room across a corridor from his office and took off all his clothes. He pulled on cotton scrubs and a disposable gown, two pairs of latex gloves and headgear with a clear plastic shield enclosing his face and a tube running out the back to a set of filters strapped to his waist. He walked through another door and down a hallway to a large upright freezer. Mounted beside the freezer was a retinal scanner. Tumpey, who is 6 feet tall, bent down a little to position his eyes in line with the lens. In a digital voice, the scanner asked him to step forward. Tumpey complied. 'Identification confirmed,'' the scanner said, and a lock on the freezer clicked open.

Inside the freezer were trays and boxes containing 'select agents'  highly pathogenic microbes that under the Patriot Act cannot be handled without special clearance from the Department of Justice. Tumpey wiped the frost off a box. He was the only person in the C.D.C., or anywhere else, authorized to handle this particular agent: a synthesized version of an influenza virus that, nearly a century before, killed between 20 million and 50 million people. He placed the box in a secure container, and after showering and dressing, carried the container through secure corridors to another building at the C.D.C., where he entered another suite of rooms, dressing once again according to Biosafety Level 3+ protocols, the second most stringent level of biosecurity. For the next couple of hours, he squirted the virus into the nostrils of laboratory mice. He was fairly certain they would all soon die.

Getting the flu can be a real drag. Your head pounds, your muscles ache, you lie in a bed of misery, surrounded by clammy tufts of used Kleenex you're too tired to pick up. Every year, 5 to 20 percent of the American population catches a flu virus. The elderly, very young children and people with certain health conditions are at risk for more serious complications, and annually some 36,000 of them die. Every few decades, a particularly virulent strain appears and causes a global pandemic. In the 20th century, flu pandemics occurred in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The last two killed two million and 700,000 people respectively  again, claiming most of their victims among the young, the old and the weak.

The 1918 flu virus is remarkable for two reasons. First, it caused perhaps the most lethal plague in the history of humankind. In the fall of that year it spread across the planet, perversely striking down healthy young adults. Once ensconced in their lungs, the virus triggered a havoc of inflammation, hemorrhage and cell death. Trying to draw air into such lungs was like breathing through meat. Many of the afflicted died within hours after they first began to feel a little feverish. Others succumbed more slowly to secondary bacterial infections. By the spring of the following year, the virus had disappeared as mysteriously as it had come.

The second, and in some ways even more remarkable, thing about the 1918 flu virus is that it has literally been brought back to life. In October, a team of scientists, Tumpey among them, announced that they had recreated the extinct organism from its genetic code  essentially the scenario played out in the movie 'Jurassic Park,' albeit on a microbial scale. In the movie, the scientists' self-serving revivification of dinosaurs leads to mayhem and death. Tumpey and his colleagues say they hope that their resurrected microbe will help prevent a calamity, not cause one. They want to know what made the 1918 flu, which began as a virus native to wild birds, mutate into a form that could pass easily from one human to another. That question has been weighing on the minds of flu experts since 1997  since the first fatal case in Hong Kong of the avian flu that has since killed more than 70 people in Asia. So far, all of its victims probably caught the disease from handling infected poultry and not from other people. How close is it to crossing the same lethal line that the 1918 virus did? What can be learned from the virus that caused the great pandemic that might help us avert another one?

The risks involved in trying to answer such questions are hard to calculate, because the experiment has no precedent. In essence, Tumpey and his colleagues have brought one serial killer back from the grave so that it can testify against another. How dangerous is the 1918 virus to today's population? Its genetic code is now in public databases, where other researchers can download it to conduct experiments. Scientists from the University of Wisconsin and the National Microbiology Laboratory in Canada have already collaborated to reconstruct the virus from the publicly available sequence. How easy would it be for a bioterrorist to exploit the same information for malevolent ends?

'Give me $100,000 and two months, and I can recreate it right here in my lab,' says Earl Brown, a flu researcher who specializes in the evolution of virulence at the University of Ottawa. 'You wouldn't be able to tell it from the real thing that was around a hundred years ago. Would it kill at the same rate as in 1918? Probably. But you really don't want to have to find that out. You don't want to give this thing a second time around.'

Terrence Tumpey is not moved by such talk. Even if the virus was to get out into the population, he says he believes it would cause far less sickness than it did in 1918. And he is sure that it is not getting out, ever, at least from his lab at the C.D.C. But whatever the danger posed by the virus in his freezer, it is literal living proof that science has crossed into an uncertain new world, where the drive to know life on its most fundamental level has given birth to the means to create it.

The resurrection of the 1918 influenza virus was a team effort engaging the resources of the C.D.C. in Atlanta, an obscure military pathology lab outside Washington, D.C., an esteemed group of influenza experts at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York and one elderly Swede. Though the story has been told before, it is impossible not to begin with the Swede. In 1950, Johan Hultin, then a 25-year-old graduate student at the University of Iowa, was searching for a Ph.D. topic when he heard a visiting virologist say that the only way to solve the mystery of the 1918 pandemic would be to recover the virus from a victim who had been buried in permafrost. Hultin suddenly had a topic.

After some planning, he found what seemed like an ideal site in the remote settlement of Brevig Mission on Seward Peninsula in Alaska. In a mere five days in November 1918, 72 of the 80 residents of Brevig died and were later buried in a mass grave. Hultin arrived there alone, obtained permission to dig up the grave and after two days of hacking through frozen ground came across the preserved body of a little girl in a blue dress, red ribbons in her hair. He and some colleagues eventually found four more bodies and cut out samples of their pocked and peppered lungs, keeping them frozen with dry ice exuded from fire extinguishers.

Back in Iowa, Hultin injected a solution of the lung tissue into fertilized chicken eggs  a standard method for growing flu virus  and inoculated mice, rats and finally ferrets, which have a peculiar susceptibility to human flus. Nothing worked. If the virus was there at all, it was dead. So was Hultin's Ph.D. thesis. He gave up, went to medical school and enjoyed a successful career as a pathologist in San Francisco. In his spare time he traveled all over the world, invented auto-safety equipment, restored archaeological sites, built a replica of a 14th-century Norwegian cabin in the Sierras (it took him 36 years) and did research on Mount Everest. But he never forgot about the one time in his life that he failed.

Jeffery Taubenberger, the man most responsible for resurrecting the 1918 flu virus, was looking a little sick. His face was pale and his eyes red-rimmed, and he had barely touched the pasta he ordered for lunch. He pulled out a handkerchief and sneezed hard.

'There's not a respiratory virus on earth that I don't seem to want to amplify,' he told me. 'If I were alive in 1918, I'd be dead.'

Taubenberger is the chairman of the department of molecular pathology of the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Rockville, Md. His department was, in the early 90's, in the process of developing an expertise in retrieving tiny whispers of genetic code from putrefied flesh. As Gina Kolata described in her book 'Flu,' Taubenberger decided in 1995 to look for the 1918 virus in samples of preserved lung in the A.F.I.P.'s tissue repository, which contains about three million pathological samples dating back to the Civil War. His techniques were far more advanced than anything Hultin had at his disposal, and his goal was more modest. Taubenberger knew that flu particles are too unstable to remain intact in a frozen corpse, and he wanted only to find a remnant of the virus's genetic code, perhaps enough to reveal what made it so virulent. But for a year and a half, he, too, failed. Finally, when Taubenberger was on the verge of giving up, he recovered from a soldier's lung a tiny fragment of the killer flu's identity, like the upturned edge of a sneering mouth.

'From that moment on, I became the steward of this virus,' Taubenberger said. 'Whether I liked it or not, I was obligated to get the whole thing.'

Taubenberger is a compact, attractive man in his mid-40's, with big, dark eyes and a quiet, precise manner of speech. He looks a bit like Frodo the hobbit in the movie version of 'The Lord of the Rings,' if you can imagine a middle-aged Frodo wearing a paisley tie and an oxford shirt, a cellphone strapped to his belt. Like Tolkein's hero, Taubenberger seems both obsessed with his quest and a little tired of shouldering its weight. The trace of the virus in the soldier's lung was unimaginably faint. But by using what is called the polymerase chain reaction (P.C.R.), a common method of amplifying a signal of DNA in a sample, he and his colleague Ann Reid were able to fish out a strand large enough to sequence; then they used that sequence as a hook to fish out another strand, then another, gradually overlapping pieces that matched on their ends to build increasingly longer and more coherent pieces.

'We had to tweak the P.C.R. method to its ultimate level of detection,' Taubenberger said. 'It wasn't simple. It was painful. Everything we did here was painful.'

Almost immediately he and Reid ran into another problem: they were running out of raw material. Then, out of the blue one day in 1997, he got a letter. It was from Johan Hultin, then 72, who had read about Taubenberger's initial success in Science magazine. He told Taubenberger about his expedition to the mass grave in Brevig in 1951 and said he would be willing to go back and try to find the virus again. Hultin said he would pay for the expedition himself. If he failed, no one else need know that it had ever happened.

And that is how Johan Hultin returned to Brevig  a tall, gray-bearded figure arriving unannounced, carrying his wife's pruning shears to help him cut through bone. After again obtaining permission, he reopened the grave, and on the fourth day of digging found the body of an obese woman whose lungs were well preserved, insulated from the occasional ground thaw by her fat. He returned home with samples of her lungs and other organs and sent them to Taubenberger. The entire expedition took five days.

'Ten days later, he called me,' Hultin said of the conversation with Taubenberger. 'I was in my Norwegian cabin in the mountains. 'We have the virus,' he said. I'd been waiting 50 years to hear that.'

A flu particle is a sphere about a millionth of an inch in diameter, containing just eight disconnected gene segments. Its surface is covered with a thicket of spikes, like a burr. The spikes are made of a protein called hemagglutinin, which sticks to receptors on the surface of cells in your respiratory tract, much as the hooked spines on a burr catch fast on fibers in your trouser leg when you're walking through high brush. In among the spikes are some other, mushroomlike protrusions of another protein, neuraminidase. These two surface proteins define the virus's identity  the face that your immune system sees and attacks. Sixteen 'flavors' of hemagglutinin are known, and nine of neuraminidase. The different major families of flu are combinations of the two, hence the designation 'H5N1' for the current threat. The 1918 virus was H1N1, the mother of all flus.

Flu viruses mutate very rapidly, and each season's version is a little different. But your immune system preserves a memory of its previous encounters with a flu, which are dragged up, like old photographs from the back of a closet, every time your system responds to a new flu invasion. Very rarely, a virus comes along bearing a surface protein that your immune system has never seen. Often this occurs when a single host  it could be a pig, but might also be a person  becomes infected with two strains of flu simultaneously, one from a mammalian lineage, the other from an avian one. Inside the host, the eight gene segments of the two strains are shuffled randomly into new configurations, like the symbols in the window of a slot machine. If one of these configurations happens to be both pathogenic and transmissible from human to human, jackpot: a pandemic ensues. The 1957 and 1968 pandemics both probably occurred through this kind of 'reassortment.' For a long time, most scientists believed the same kind of gene-shuffling triggered the far more calamitous 1918 pandemic as well.

In his hunt for the cause of the 1918 flu's virulence, Taubenberger focused first on the hemagglutinin gene. Seasonal flus are normally confined to the respiratory tract because before it can infect a cell, the hemagglutinin protein needs to be split down the middle by an enzyme found there. But some forms of avian flu  including H5N1, the one now threatening us  bear a specific mutation in their hemagglutinin gene that allows other, more ubiquitous enzymes to cleave apart the protein, freeing the virus to invade cells deeper in the lungs or even in other organs. Taubenberger looked for the same killer mutation in the 1918 virus's hemagglutinin gene, but it wasn't there. After months of more work, he and Reid decoded the gene for neuraminidase. It, too, gave no hint why this particular virus was so deadly.

Same for the next gene, and the one after that. A year went by, then another. Instead of revealing some peculiar feature that might tip off the secret of its virulence, the genetic sequence of the virus slowly emerging seemed chillingly ordinary. Among the chain of some 4,000 amino acids that made up its proteins, only 25 or 30 distinguished it from a common, nonvirulent avian flu. Rather than originating from a reassortment of genes from both an avian and mammalian source, like the viruses that caused the later pandemics, the 1918 flu most likely began as a bird-adapted strain that, with just a handful of mutations, made itself at home in human beings. To flu researchers and public-health officials, the resemblance of the 1918 sequence to those of common avian flus underscores the stark fact that there is more than one way for a virulent strain like H5N1 to make the jump and become transmissible person to person. According to Taubenberger, this suggests a new strategy for surveillance, one that would include identifying and isolating a local variant of the virus on the verge of acquiring a complete complement of the essential mutations, after which point it would become impossible to contain.

What the genetic sequence of the 1918 virus did not reveal, however, was why the virus killed so ruthlessly, or how it made that critical leap to become transmissible. For those answers, they would have to take a more drastic step. 'Jeff spent 10 years of his life doing this, and it told us nothing about pathogenicity,' says Robert Webster, a noted flu researcher at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis. 'That's when we realized the sequence wasn't enough. It was necessary to put the damn thing together.'

Necessary or not, the fact that it had become possible was probably enough to ensure that it would be done. In biology, the direction determined by what is possible has been downward, toward the exploration of ever more reduced levels of complexity. The progression started with the ancients, who first opened up the human body to ponder its organs and their functions. Once microscopes were developed in the 17th century, it became possible to observe the anatomy and behavior of the tissues and cells making up the organs, and with later advances, the proteins that build cells and determine their functions. In the last century we reached the level of the genes that conjure the proteins into being. Only in the last decade has automated sequencing made it possible to peer beneath genes at the individual letters of DNA constituting a complex organism's complete genome, including our own.

This is the bottom of the biological hierarchy, the fundament, where all of life rests upon the bedrock of inert information. Now that we have reached down this far, it becomes possible to use that information to do a U-turn and start back up, not just trying to understand life, but recreating and inventing it  first simple viruses, but soon bacteria and other more complex organisms. The resurrection of the 1918 flu incarnates this turning point. It is not the first virus to be reconstituted from its genetic code. But it is so far the largest, and the meanest, and the only one to be snatched back into existence from a time when we knew so much less and were so much more at its mercy.

The wonder is not that scientists could reconstitute the 'damn thing' from its genetic code. The wonder, and for some the fear, is that they could do it with so little effort or expense. Biosupply companies use synthesizing machines to build tiny pieces of DNA to order, using the sequence of letters in the virus's code. When placed in solution, these chemical snippets naturally assemble into longer pieces. With the help of a copying enzyme to fill in any gaps, the DNA molecules stitch themselves together into a complete gene, which can be inserted into a stable little circle of DNA called a plasmid  packaged to go, so to speak. If you have plasmids containing all eight flu gene segments, it is a fairly simple matter to inject them along with some flu proteins into a cell and let nature take its course.

This method of building flu-virus particles from pure code is a clever application of the approach to understanding life called 'reverse genetics'  that is, looking at a gene to figure out its function, rather than the other way around. But it is not one requiring some spectacular insight or technological breakthrough. The method employs fairly routine molecular biology and was developed independently by two different flu teams, one at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York, the other at the University of Wisconsin. Peter Palese, from the Mount Sinai team, contacted Jeffery Taubenberger and suggested that if he would supply the blueprint for the virus, Mount Sinai would function as the parts factory, putting together the genes. Another laboratory, one with the biosecurity facilities required to work with highly infectious agents, would be recruited as the final assembly plant. That role would fall to Terrence Tumpey of the C.D.C.

The team did not even have to wait for Taubenberger to finish the whole sequence of the 1918 virus to begin testing its virulence. In 2001, Adolfo Garcia-Sastre and Christopher Basler, also at Mount Sinai, reconstructed the genes for just the two critical surface proteins and sent them on to Tumpey, at that time working at the Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory in Athens, Ga. Taking advantage of influenza's innate ability to mix and match genes from two strains, he combined the two 1918 genes with others from an innocuous laboratory strain to make a complete set. Tumpey infected some lab mice, which are normally not affected much by human flus. Five days later, he came into the laboratory at around 11 at night for a quick check on their progress. All the mice were dead.

In person, Tumpey is unnervingly imperturbable; ask him what it's like handling an infectious agent that killed perhaps 50 million people, and he stares back at you and gives a little shrug. But this first demonstration of the virus's power got to him.

'I literally felt a chill go down my spine,' he told me. 'I knew I had this awesome virus, and I'd eventually be able to put the whole thing together.'

He did not have much longer to wait. It took nearly 50 years to find a trace of the virus in preserved tissue, and nearly 10 years for Taubenberger to sequence its code, finishing the last of three genes driving the virus's replication machinery early last year. From that point, it required just a few months for the Mount Sinai group to transform the code into actual genes, and in Tumpey's lab mere days for the genes to begin assembling themselves into viable virus particles and come bursting out into the surrounding solution.

Tumpey and his colleagues were well aware that bringing such a lethal pathogen back into the world was going to cause controversy. But he was fairly certain that he had laid the groundwork to defend the decision, obtaining approvals from the highest levels at the C.D.C. and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which had financed the work. He had conducted experiments showing that mice were protected from the virus by the current human flu vaccine and by Tamiflu, the antiviral drug. In any case, because a virus descended from the 1918 one has been circulating in the population since 1977, Tumpey is confident that everyone carries at least partial immunity to the 1918 virus itself.

Not everyone is as sanguine as Tumpey. 'I believe that this was research that should not have been performed,' says Richard Ebright, a Howard Hughes Medical Institute investigator at Rutgers University. 'If this virus was to be accidentally or intentionally released, it is virtually certain that there would be greater lethality than from seasonal influenza, and quite possible that the threat of pandemic that is in the news daily would become a reality.'

Neither Terrence Tumpey nor Richard Ebright really knows how vulnerable the population today would be to the resurrected virus. Nobody does. This uncertainty would seem to limit the virus's value as a bioweapon. In theory, anyone with nefarious intent and the requisite training in molecular biology could recreate the virus from the sequence published on the Internet. But why would any sensible bioterrorist go to such lengths to create a weapon that might do no more harm than a seasonal flu bug, or, if it did prove undiminished in its virulence, would kill his own people as indiscriminately as his enemies?

Then again, common sense is not a prerequisite for membership in a terrorist organization. Accidental release of the virus cannot be ruled out, either. While few question the experience and expertise of the C.D.C. in containing dangerous microbes, other labs will be working with the virus, and there is ample precedent for accidents occurring under stringent biosecurity, including release of the SARS virus in the past few years from three separate laboratories in Asia, which led to one death. In fact, the reason those of us who were not around in 1918 still may have some immunity to that pandemic strain is that a relatively innocuous descendant H1 type was reintroduced into the environment in 1977, probably by accident in China or Russia.

Given the potential danger, Robert Webster, the esteemed flu researcher who supported the reconstruction, is among those who say it would be better to conduct future research on the 1918 virus under Biosafety Level 4 conditions  the maximum degree of security, used for working with lethal microorganisms like the Ebola virus and smallpox. But currently, only four institutions in the U.S. have functioning BSL-4 facilities, including the C.D.C. Imposing such restrictions would necessarily slow the progress of research.

This is something that Terrence Tumpey, among others, insists that we cannot afford. Earlier this month, the H5N1 virus recorded an extraordinary rash of cases, including four fatalities in Turkey, the first outside East Asia. All the victims appear to have caught the virus from eating or handling infected poultry. But most flu researchers worry that as the virus's range increases, so does the likelihood that somewhere, sometime, some random set of mutations will send it over the edge into transmissibility, unleashing a pandemic. Everyone agrees that at some point, another pandemic will come  if not from this strain, then from some other one perhaps not even yet under surveillance. The best hope of containing its impact is to understand how it works. What are its mechanisms of infection and replication? How does it foil the host's immune response and jump from a conquered host to a fresh one?

In Tumpey's view, the 1918 virus is the star witness in a murder trial, and the interrogation should proceed without unnecessary impediments. Taubenberger's sequence can help indicate what questions to ask. Experiments with individual genes can suggest some possible answers. But only the living virus can reveal the full truth.

The first round of interrogation is already under way. Using reverse genetics to test the contribution of any particular gene to the virus's pathogenicity, Tumpey and his colleagues can replace any target gene in the 1918 virus with its complement from a harmless strain, then measure the effect on the virus's potency. When he replaced the 1918 hemagglutinin gene with one from a garden-variety seasonal flu, the virus replicated at less than 1D100th the rate in mice; it was definitive proof of the essential role played by that gene in virulence. Tumpey already knew that the 1918 virus did not need one of the host's own enzymes to turn traitor and cleave apart the hemagglutinin protein to help the virus infect a cell. But when he created a 1918 virus without its own neuraminidase gene, this ability was lost, revealing that the virus toted its own cleaving mechanism into the host on that gene, like a butcher who brings his own knife. Meanwhile, Peter Palese's group has shown that another gene in the 1918 virus is especially good at blunting the human immune system's initial counterattack.

'It was perfect genes, working together, that made this virus what it was,' Palese said. Then he gave a little laugh. 'Or what it is.'

Scientists can also examine the role in virulence and transmission of particular mutations on the virus's genes. Taubenberger's sequence again offers guidance. One of the large genes driving replication, for instance, bears a single mutation that is found not only in the 1918 virus, but also in all human flus. But no bird flus have this mutation  not even H5N1. Is this mutation perhaps necessary for an avian virus to become transmissible from human to human? Combining reverse genetics with some other molecular tricks, you could insert that mutation into the gene of a nonvirulent avian flu, construct the virus and see how it behaves. The ultimate hope of such experiments is to uncover a clue to how the virus spreads or kills, and possibly a way to cripple it. Terrence Tumpey is already planning experiments with several research groups and companies that will use the 1918 virus to test possible antiviral drugs to block some universal mechanism of virulence, like the binding of hemagglutinin to the host cell. That work has added urgency, since the H5N1 flu appears to have developed resistance to one of two flu drugs currently on the market.

What may be the most informative research he intends to conduct must surely be the most dangerous as well. Tumpey's freezer contains the resurrected 1918 virus, which is lethal and highly transmissible. It also contains samples of the H5N1 virus, which is lethal but not yet transmissible. Using reverse genetics, he imagines 'a great set of experiments' combining the genes of these two killers in various combinations, seeing if one might have the capacity to transmit from an infected animal model, like a ferret, to an uninfected one. This would create in the laboratory the very pandemic strain that researchers most fear may emerge at any time in nature. According to Tumpey, plans for these experiments are already 'on paper.' Needless to say, they will require complete approval first, and may have to be performed under Biosafety Level 4 conditions, since we would have no immunity to the recombinant organism.

For Richard Ebright, the prospect that the C.D.C. or some other lab would 'jump the gun on nature' is worrisome under any circumstances. Other scientists and bioethicists are also calling for more independent, international review and control of further research on the 1918 virus and other synthetic pathogens yet to be concocted. It all comes down, of course, to whether what we can learn justifies the risk of bringing them into existence. While that debate moves forward, nature will go on conducting its own creative experiments, indifferent as always to our abilities to defend ourselves against them.
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Eastern European avian flu similar to 1918 strain

Sharon Kirkey
CanWest News Service


Friday, January 27, 2006

More similarities have been found between the bird flu creeping into Eastern Europe and the 1918 Spanish flu that decimated populations worldwide, including the discovery of an entirely new way bird flu may kill human cells.

Researchers from St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., have found that bird flu viruses carry a gene that can latch onto many crucial proteins inside human cells, presumably disrupting their function and causing far more severe disease than human viruses.

The research provides a new hypothesis for why certain bird flu viruses are particularly lethal for humans.


Published in today's issue of the journal Science, the research comes as Canada prepares to release an updated pandemic flu plan that includes new infection control and border measures, from strategies to get people to wash their hands and cough into Kleenex, to surveillance systems in airports and emergency rooms to detect the virus's introduction into Canada.

There's no evidence so far that the H5N1 avian flu is transforming into the next human pandemic flu strain, but "we certainly are really increasing our efforts in terms of preparedness," says Dr. Theresa Tam, of the Public Health Agency of Canada.

But a SARS survivor, and infectious disease specialist, says Canada is "nowhere close" to being ready for a pandemic should it happen. Dr. Allison McGeer, of Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto, says more money and time needs to be spent on looking for new drugs for influenza, which masks will truly protect people, how sick people will be cared for when there aren't enough health-care workers and getting Canadians to agree on "fair and reasonable" distribution of vaccines.

In what is being described as the first large-scale mapping of bird flu viruses, researchers from St. Jude mapped 2,196 bird flu genes culled from ducks, gulls, shorebirds and poultry samples collected over 30 years, looking for patterns and comparing them to human flu bugs.

They also mapped the complete genome for 169 bird flu viruses. The work doubles the amount of genetic information available on avian flu.

The team honed in on a gene called NS 1. After looking at nearly 1,200 bird, human and swine NS 1 proteins, they found a particular feature of that gene which is unique in bird viruses and different from human ones.

In bird viruses, the gene produces a protein that allows the virus to bind to "scaffolding" proteins inside human cells.

"It's like a large number of policemen being held hostage. Society falls apart,"
says McGeer.

In human viruses, the protein doesn't bind to certain cells, which may explain why they're not as virulent.

It hasn't been proven yet. "But, we think that if you interfere with that many proteins in cells, you're going to have a deleterious consequences," said author Dr. Clayton Naeve of St. Jude.

The finding fits with what doctors on the ground in Asia have seen: The H5N1 virus can attack not just the airways, like regular flu, but multiple organs and systems, including the kidney, liver, spleen and brain. Infection has been fatal in more than half the reported cases, and most cases occur in previously healthy children and young adults.

The H5N1 avian flu sweeping across Asia has this "bird" form of the protein. The milder pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had the "human" one.

The 1918 Spanish flu virus, which scientists now believe came from birds, had a very similar "bird" protein that the researchers believe behaves the same way. The protein could become a key target for the development of vaccines and new anti-flu drugs.

McGeer says the research answers "a big piece of the puzzle.

"Does it tell you H5N1 is going to be the next pandemic? No. What it does is add to our understanding of the evolution of influenza viruses."

Naeve says it is possible that whatever makes H5N1 so pathogenic, or toxic to humans, could persist even if the virus adapts to spread easily from humans to humans, and becomes pandemic.

If or when that happens is anyone's guess. Some virologists believe H5N1 is not going to be the next human pandemic.

The virus, which surfaced in Hong Kong in 1997, has been in contact with humans for eight years "and we haven't seen the required mutation," says Dr. James Mahony, a professor of pathology and molecular medicine at McMaster University.

The 1918 virus, by contrast, jumped from birds to humans and was quickly lethal.

On Thursday, Indonesia reported that a 22-year-old chicken seller infected with the H5N1 virus died, the country's 15th death from bird flu.

China on Wednesday confirmed the country's 10th case of human infection with H5N1, a 29-year-old woman from Chengdu City in the province of Sichuan. It's not known if she was exposed to infected birds.

The virus has infected 152 people in six countries since 2003, killing 84 of them.

At least some species of migratory birds are carrying the virus to new areas along migratory flyways, according to a report presented this week to the WHO's executive board, and the chance the virus will spread to poultry in new areas "is now high."

Health officials in Canada are monitoring the outbreak of bird flu in Turkey, where two people have died. "To date, people are still convinced there is no efficient human to human transmission," says Tam, associate director of the immunization and respiratory infections division at the Public Health Agency of Canada.

But, "we really have no idea how this virus will behave next if it undergoes some mutation."

The updated influenza pandemic plan will include recommendations for the use of masks. Droplets, or larger "blobs" of secretions primarily spread flu. General surgical masks should be enough should a pandemic happen, Tam says.

"Public health experts feel that putting a mask on an ill person when they're coughing or sneezing and have to move around ... is a sensible thing to do.

"Having well people milling about on the streets wearing masks all the time, we don't know if it's effective or not."

The public focus will be on hand hygiene, Tam says.

© The Vancouver Sun 2006

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=34224cff-120f-4d19-bd6c-526d264833f7&k=15148

:vik:
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Bird Flu Virus Has Unique Gene Not Found In Human Flu Virus
27 Jan 2006

According to scientists at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, USA, all bird flu viruses they have investigated have a unique gene not found in human flu viruses. This unique gene may play a major role in making the H5N1 bird flu virus strain so virulent (potent, powerful).

The scientists have been analysing samples of over 11,000 flu viruses. Team leader, Dr T Webster says some of these samples date back to 1976 and come from all corners of the globe. 7,000 of these samples come from birds (bird flu viruses).

You can read about this study in the journal Science.

The avian version of the flu virus is what killed humans in Vietnam and Thailand, and was also the virus that killed an estimated 40 million people during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918.

So far, over 2,000 bird flu genes and 160 complete genomes have been identified by Dr Webster and his team after completing research into 300 bird flu viruses.

We do not know how long the H5N1 virus has been killing birds. The first human to die from H5N1 infection was in 1997. Nothing then happened for a few years until 2003 - since 2003 over 160 people have been infected, of which about half have died (since 2003 over 100 million birds have died of bird flu).

Scientists fear the H5N1 bird flu virus strain will mutate and become easily transmissible among humans. It may infect a person who has the human flu and exchange genes with the human flu virus, picking up from it the ability to spread from human-to-human.

Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Cities Can't Rely On Federal Help In Case Of Outbreak

Last Updated:
01-27-06 at 7:58AM

Health officials have warned U.S. mayors that they cannot rely on the federal government to save their cities if the bird flu epidemic spreads.

A top department of Health and Human Services official issued the warning at the U.S. Conference of Mayors.

Mayors were told they must prepare for the worst in case of an outbreak.


Some mayors said they are more focused on other issues in their cities like jobs, education and transportation.

http://www.kfmb.com/story.php?id=36446

:vik:
 
=



<B><center><font size=+1 color=red>County readies for flu pandemic</font>

Published: Fri, Jan 27th, 2006
<A href="http://www.simcoe.com/sc/collingwood/v-scv2/story/3288726p-3806777c.html">www.simcoe.com</a></center>
A broad partnership of health and emergency services in Simcoe County and Muskoka are coordinating local plans for an influenza pandemic.

The Health Sector Emergency Planning Committee will work specifically on pandemic planning for Simcoe and Muskoka. </b>

The committee also says it intends to use the pandemic plan as the foundation for more general health-related emergency response plans.


Health and emergency response services involved in the pandemic planning include the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit, the County of Simcoe, paramedic services, hospitals, lower-tier municipalities, fire services and long-term care and community care agencies.

Together, officials say they hope to coordinate agency plans to fit an overall strategy that will bring a higher level of protection and public safety while reducing the impact of a pandemic on the region.

Jane Sinclair, the county's health and cultural services general manager, said most health and emergency services already have pandemic plans in place or are being completed.

"What is happening now is a cooperative approach to reduce the gaps or duplication in our response," Sinclair said. "And more importantly, as all these services work together to form a single strategy, they will be strengthening the whole region's response to a pandemic situation.

Dr. Charles Gardner, the chief medical officer of health in Simcoe-Muskoka, co-chairs the group with Sinclair.

Gardner said the province has designated public health units as the lead agencies in their communities during pandemics. Sinclair added that the role of the County of Simcoe in a pandemic situation will be to assist and support the emergency response plan. The county has also taken the lead in preparing a web-based information system for the partners in the committee.

Bill Mindell, director of clinical services for the health unit, said the committee is "well along in the planning process. We have individual plans in development and these agencies are talking together on how they can best work in an integrated way. We learned from the SARS experience in 2003 and are in a much better state of preparedness today."
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>WHO lab confirms 12 human cases of bird flu in Turkey</font>
(AFP)

27 January 2006
<A href="http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2006/January/theworld_January606.xml&section=theworld&col=">www.khaleejtimes.com</a></center>
ANKARA - A London-based World Health Organization (WHO) laboratory has confirmed 12 of the 21 human cases of the lethal bird flu strain in Turkey, the health ministry said on Friday.

“The analysis of samples from the remaining cases is continuing,” the statement, carried by Anatolia news agency, said.</b>

Turkish labs have diagnosed a total of 21 people with the H5N1 strain of the disease, including four teenagers who have perished since January 1, the first human fatalities of bird flu outside Southeast Asia and China.

The ministry said 14 H5N1 carriers had been discharged from hospital after recovering, and three others remained under treatment.

“It is encouraging that there have been no new cases (since January 17), but precautions should continue,” it added.

All but two of the human cases in Turkey are children and teenagers aged between two and 18, who were infected after coming into close contact with sick birds.

The four dead were all from Dogubeyazit, a remote eastern region near the border with Iran where the current outbreak started in December.
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>AVIAN FLU FEAR UPPED</font>

By J. Grant Swank, Jr.
MichNews.com
Jan 26, 2006
<A href="http://www.michnews.com/artman/publish/article_11446.shtml">www.michnews.com</a></center>
"We must remain on the offensive against new threats to public health, such as the Avian influenza," US President George W. Bush said in his speech to world leaders at the United Nations Summit in New York. "If left unchallenged, the virus could become the first pandemic of the 21st century."</b>

"If we had a significant worldwide epidemic of this particular avian flu, the H5N1 virus, and it hit the United States and the world, because it would be everywhere at once, I think we would see outcomes that would be virtually impossible to imagine," warns Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health.

Avian flu could cause a billion humans to die globally, according to ABC News. That is why this week the Bush administration set in motion stockpiling $100 million worth of medicines. However, the vaccine is still in the experimental stage.

"Right now in human beings, it kills 55 percent of the people it infects," says Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow on global health policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. "That makes it the most lethal flu we know of that has ever been on planet Earth affecting human beings."

British officials are now spying out extra morgue square footage to those who would die because of the H5N1 virus. This virus type is brand new to the human race.

The Foreign Affairs publication looks upon this threat as "the coming global epidemic, a pandemic."

Mr. Bush highlighted his personal concern in his address at the news conference this week. He cautioned that he did not mean to be overly alarming; but the message given was that America may have an extremely serious problem in the near future — a health problem that could get way out of control.

It started in Asia. Birds like geese, swans and ducks are the culprits. The birds die of a pneumonia. Their lungs are found to be filled with fluid and blood, according to veterinarian for the Wildlife Conservation Society, William Karesh.

The disease goes from wild birds, then to chickens, then to people. "We start at a market somewhere in Guangdong Province in China. And it's packed with cages, and you'll have chickens, and you'll have ducks. You might have some other animals -- cats, dogs, turtles, snakes -- and they're all stacked in cages, and they're all spreading their germs to each other," Karesh explains.

That means that officials must see through the destruction of scores of chickens — thousands at a time. The chance is that the disease can be halted before it reaches mortals. The next stage, after going from lower animals to humans, is human to human.

What concerns government officials worldwide is that many do not understand the magnitude of the problem. Newscasters are reluctant to hammer away constantly on the issue. Even politicians do not want to appear extremely panicky about avian flu. And therefore, nations go on their ways as if all is normal, no threat in sight, while huge populations remain uneducated about what could happen this winter.

Add to this the fact that the medicines are not equipped at present to combat the pandemic. Widespread disease occurrences would be practically impossible to ward off. That would mean that alarming numbers of humans would die without the hoped-for vaccine.

Scientists are working night and day at present in search of virus solutions before the plague hits.

The disease strikes with a cold-type "runny nose." Then there is the sore throat. The lungs are attacked next as that tissue suffers from an extreme pneumonia. As of this date, 57 confirmed human deaths, and another suspected one last week in Indonesia, are recorded.

Thus far, infections have come from birds. But once the virus leaps from birds to human to human, then the pandemic sets loose. That would over-ditto the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918.

The avian flu could travel around the planet in a very short time. That is due to international air travel.

People would carry the virus on their hands. Therefore, shaking hands could spread the disease. Door handles and so forth could carry the virus. Whatever is touched could be contaminated.

Such widespread sickness could force blocking off entire geographies so that persons, quarantined, could not go out while others could not go in. Airports, interstates, subways, schools, shopping malls could end up blocked off to entrancing and exiting. Persons could be corralled with strangers who could be disease carriers.

The frightening prospects are numberless: no place to bury the dead. No one to bury them. Not enough caskets. No persons to provide decent burial rites. Orphans. Elderly struck down with no medical assistance. Hospitals shut down or quarantined.

Further, when the avian flu first hits, persons may think it to be the "old-fashioned flu." Therefore, it could spread quickly with persons not realizing the enormity of the danger. As a major killer disease, it would be subtle, indirect and especially cunning at its entry levels.

US Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt says: "We would do all we could to quarantine. It's not a happy thought. It's something that keeps the president of the United States awake. It keeps me awake." Leavitt says that he wishes there were more time left to perfect a solution.

ABC News’ "Primetime" broadcasts that a couple hundred thousand in the United States could be killed by the avian flu in "a few months." Even that number is regarded as low.

Everyone will be asking for the vaccine. But it won’t be available. When the vaccine finally is up and running, the supply will not be sufficient.

Tamiflu by Roche pharmaceutical firm in Switzerland is on to a vaccine. It’s been marketed for flu. It was thought it may work against H5N1. Therefore, every aware nation was requesting Tamiflu in stockpiles. Only the rich countries, however, could get it. Even then, the supply was not up to what would be the demand. However, now it is believed that Tamiflu will not overtake a mutant virus.

If persons think the hurricane disasters of Katrina and Rita were devastating, such would prove to be pigmy-sized in comparison to a pandemic of avian flu.

"A lot of people don't realize that for this avian flu virus, there will be very little effective therapy available early on," said US Congressman Bill Frist.
 
=



<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>WHO: Indonesia vulnerable to bird flu</font>

Friday 27 January 2006, 19:48 Makka Time, 16:48 GMT
<A href="http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2EC6A17D-4812-4FF4-9FC5-FD86279D69C5.htm">english.aljazeera.net</a></center>
Traditional wet markets are common throughout Indonesia

Ignorance, filthy conditions and lack of water risk making traditional Indonesian markets breeding grounds for bird flu in people and poultry, the World Health Organisation has said.</b>

The warning on Friday comes a day after the death of a 22-year-old Indonesian chicken seller, which local tests showed had been infected with the H5N1 bird flu virus.

If confirmed, it would bring to 15 the number of people known to have died from bird flu in Indonesia. Five other people have survived infection from a virus that scientists fear could trigger a global pandemic in humans.

Traditional wet markets are common throughout populous Indonesia and Alexander von Hildebrand, the WHO's regional adviser for environmental health, said vendors often conducted business on dirty ground, placing everyone at risk of infection.



Many vendors are clueless about the H5N1 virus surviving in chicken droppings for days, he said.



"The exposure to poultry by market stall owners, slaughterers, poultry workers and the customer in the wet marketplace demonstrated that awareness of avian influenza, transmission routes and methods of preventing transmission is limited," he said.

Problems

Keeping ducks and chickens adjacent also presented problems.

"Some vendors are keeping chickens very close to ducks which can be a problem because ducks do not show the disease but can carry it and transmit it," he said.

Sanitation in many traditional
markets is poor

If an infected bird was present, then many people risked being exposed to the blood and secretions, he said. "Re-zoning is necessary to limit the potential public exposure."

Millions of Indonesians shop at traditional markets where fruit, vegetables and meat are often sold on the ground in the midst of slush and dirt.

Sanitation in many traditional markets is poor, with dirty or drainage water used to wash produce and stalls.

The WHO has already called for preventive measures, including limited contact between humans and poultry in markets, as well as better access to water and improved waste management.

High risk

Increasing the risks is that H5N1 is endemic in poultry in parts of Indonesia and in addition to unsanitary markets, many chickens and ducks live closely among people on small farms or even in cities and towns. This raises the chances of more humans becoming infected.

"Some vendors are keeping chickens very close to ducks which can be a problem because ducks do not show the disease but can carry it and transmit it"

Alexander von Hildebrand,
WHO Regional Director

The government says the highly pathogenic strain of H5N1 has been detected in birds in two-thirds of the provinces. A further complication is that Indonesia, with 220 million people, comprises about 17,000 islands, making surveillance and control measures more difficult than many other countries.

H5N1 is not known to pass easily between humans at the moment, but experts fear it could develop that ability and set off a global pandemic that might kill millions of people.

In total, the virus has killed at least 83 people in six countries since late 2003. Millions of poultry have either died or been culled to try to stop the virus spreading.

But Indonesia has not carried out the mass culling of some countries, in part because it cannot afford to compensate farmers for destroyed birds.
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>US study may hold key to bird flu's virulence</font>

01-27-2006, 16h43
WASHINGTON (AFP)
<A href="http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=105455">www.turkishpress.com</a></center>
Bird flu-infected chicken. US researchers, in the first large-scale study of bird flu genomes, have found a genetic feature in the deadly virus that might explain its virulence in humans.
(AFP/File) </b>

US researchers, in the first large-scale study of bird flu genomes, have found a genetic feature in the deadly virus that might explain its virulence in humans.

The avian flu strain that has killed at least 83 people since 2003, mostly in Asia, and the influenza pandemic of 1918 both have a "bird motif" that may latch onto and disrupt the activity of certain proteins in its human hosts, according study published in Friday's issue of the journal Science.

Conversely, the less deadly 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics contained a "human motif" that appears to be less capable of interacting with host proteins, according to the study by researchers at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Tennessee.

The researchers used the institution's huge inventory of bird flu virus samples collected over several decades to complete the first major study of the viruses' genomes.

The analysis "doubles the amount of publicly available genetic information on bird flu and reveals a new genetic motif that could be key to the virulence of some flu outbreaks, including the ongoing H5N1 bird flu outbreak in Asia and Europe," the study said.

Scientists fear the H5N1 virus may mutate into a form easily transmissible between humans and trigger a pandemic that could kill millions around the world.

Preliminary analysis of the data collected in the St. Jude's study has led to the discovery of new bird flu genes, information on how the viruses evolve through time and the identification of genes that travel together through evolution, researchers said.

The analysis includes 2,196 bird flu genes and 169 complete genomes culled from various wild bird samples
 

ofuzzy1

Just Visiting
Ding, ding, ding.

Heard this on the Jazz radio last night and forgot about it. This deserves repeating. IOW [in other words] You're on your own folks.


PCViking said:
Cities Can't Rely On Federal Help In Case Of Outbreak


Last Updated:
01-27-06 at 7:58AM

Health officials have warned U.S. mayors that they cannot rely on the federal government to save their cities if the bird flu epidemic spreads.

A top department of Health and Human Services official issued the warning at the U.S. Conference of Mayors.

Mayors were told they must prepare for the worst in case of an outbreak.


Some mayors said they are more focused on other issues in their cities like jobs, education and transportation.

http://www.kfmb.com/story.php?id=36446

:vik:
 
=



<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Quebec Debates Whether Free Range or Intensive Confinement Offers Better Protection Against Avian Flu</font></b>

<i>H5N1 strain of avian influenza
Terrorist Ducks and Free-Range Sleeper Cells?</i>

By Rob Wallbridge
Canada Free Press - Canada, Wednesday, January 25, 2005
http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/wallbridge012506.htm

<A href="http://www.organicconsumers.org/foodsafety/avianflu012706.cfm">www.organicconsumers.org</a></center>
<b>Terrorist ducks and free-range sleeper cells? It’s an odd idea to imagine, yet this appears to be the way some governments are viewing wild birds and outdoor flocks of poultry in the wave of paranoia surrounding the H5N1 strain of avian influenza. In early November, the government of Quebec imposed strict new regulations governing poultry farming in the province. Chief among them was the requirement that all poultry be kept locked indoors, sealed away from any type of potential contact with wild birds. The intention is to protect the province’s poultry industry and its export markets from the threat of avian flu. But is this response the right one?</b>

This action not only impacts a large number of small farmers who are accustomed to letting their poultry free range, it also threatens the ability of certified organic producers to continue to raise their flocks according to organic standards and according to their customer’s expectations.

There are broader concerns too, about the real source of the current strain of H5N1 avian flu, the true effectiveness of this "exposure avoidance" approach to dealing with the threat, and its impact on the poultry industry, farmers, consumers, and human health worldwide. Consider the following:

The traditional Asian farms and markets that are being blamed for the current problem have been in existence for 7,000 years.


Avian flu has been present for hundreds of years, and was first noticed to cause human disease over 100 years ago. Even the H5N1strain has been present since at least 1959. The current strain of highly pathogenic H5N1 flu is believed to have started in southern China in early 2003.


This area, like many parts of Southeast Asia is home to rapidly-expanding ‘modern’ intensive poultry production, as well as traditional farms and live-bird markets.


Our knowledge of viruses tells us that large, intensive livestock facilities are the perfect breeding ground for the emergence of highly-pathogenic, virulent strains: they house large numbers of birds in close quarters whose immune systems have been compromised by stress, poor living conditions, and feeds medicated with hormones and antibiotics. (Current biosecurity protocols may even aid in their emergence by selecting against strains that are easier to eliminate.)


This has already been demonstrated in North American poultry barns with the IBD virus. which has become more virulent in the decades following the emergence of intensive operations. It has since spread around the world, despite culls, vaccines, quarantines, and all manner of biosecurity measures. (Research has linked the immune-weakening effects of IBD to recent outbreaks of H5N1 avian flu in Hong Kong.)


In contrast, in a 2002 avian flu outbreak in Virginia, all flocks within the "Hot Zone" were tested. While several confined flocks of all breeds and ages were infected, none of the backyard flocks were infected.


University tests have found lower bacterial contamination in pasture poultry: less than 4% of that in conventional poultry


Another study showed that heritage turkey breeds had better immune function, lower death rates, and more nutrients like vitamin C than industrial turkeys.


Several studies have recognized the nutritional benefits of pastured poultry products, especially related to essential fatty acids like omega-3 and CLA.
Taking these facts into account, we can reach the following conclusions:

There is reason to suspect that the current strain of H5N1 emerged from an intensive operation and then spread in areas where large numbers of birds and large human populations are in close contact (a situation that doesn’t exist in Canada).


Previous experience (with poultry and swine diseases on the small-scale and BSE and foot and mouth disease on a tragic scale) tells us that this "exposure avoidance" approach to disease control is bound to fail sooner or later. As the old adage goes, "Nature always bats last."


There is evidence to suggest that either the genetics or the environment (or both) of properly cared-for outdoor flocks confers some resistance to avian flu, as well as providing nutritional benefits to those who consume "pastured poultry" products.
These conclusions suggest that the recent measures taken by the Quebec government are probably unnecessary, will be ineffective at best, and will be very likely highly counterproductive. A more effective strategy would be to focus on avoiding the mutation of the virus to its lethal form. This strategy would include:

Researching what factors make birds (and humans) healthier and less susceptible to flu viruses--a "health-building" rather than "exposure avoidance" approach


Working with farmers of all sizes and types of operations to build the health and strengthen the immune system of their birds.


Encouraging small, genetically-diverse flocks in order to reduce the risk of mutation and to preserve genetic material for future generations--this is the same strategy nature has successfully employed for thousands of years.
Not only will these measures protect the health of our birds and our human population, they will also preserve and increase the quality and diversity of the poultry products available to consumers. This in turn will benefit farmers and rural communities by reducing the concentration of market power that would otherwise accelerate--a problem made very clear by the BSE crisis and one that is plaguing the entire farm sector.

Let’s hope that the Quebec government reconsiders its position, and that all governments across Canada work with the entire farm community to create a balanced, rational approach to this and other livestock disease concerns.

(Rob Wallbridge was born and raised on a family farm in Ontario and obtained a Bachelor of Arts & Science Degree from McMaster University in 1995. He currently works as an organic agricultural consultant and operates a diversified certified organic farm near Shawville, Quebec with his wife and child.)
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Vaccine provides 100 percent protection against avian flu virus in animal study</font>

January 27, 2006
<A href="http://www.brightsurf.com/news/headlines/view.article.php?ArticleID=22788">www.brightsurf.com</a></center>
University of Pittsburgh researchers announced they have genetically engineered an avian flu vaccine from the critical components of the deadly H5N1 virus that completely protected mice and chickens from infection. Avian flu has devastated bird populations in Southeast Asia and Europe and so far has killed more than 80 people.</b>

Because this vaccine contains a live virus, it may be more immune-activating than avian flu vaccines prepared by traditional methods, say the researchers. Furthermore, because it is grown in cells, it can be produced much more quickly than traditional vaccines, making it an extremely attractive candidate for preventing the spread of the virus in domestic livestock populations and, potentially, in humans, according to the study, published in the Feb 15 issue of the Journal of Virology and made available early online.

“The results of this animal trial are very promising, not only because our vaccine completely protected animals that otherwise would have died, but also because we found that one form of the vaccine stimulates several lines of immunity against H5N1,” said Andrea Gambotto, M.D., assistant professor in the departments of surgery and molecular genetics and biochemistry, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, and lead author of the study.

Dr. Gambotto and his colleagues constructed the vaccine by genetically engineering a common cold virus, called adenovirus, to express either all or parts of an avian influenza protein called hemagglutinin (HA) on its surface. Found on the surface of all influenza viruses, HA allows the virus to attach to the cell that is being infected and is, therefore, critical to the influenza virus’ ability to cause illness and death.

Since the late 1990s, a number of outbreaks of the avian influenza H5N1 in poultry have occurred in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam. Outbreaks recently have been reported in Turkey and Romania. To date, H5N1 has caused the most large-scale and widespread bird deaths in known history—an estimated 150 to 200 million birds have either died in the outbreaks or been killed as part of infection control actions in the last eight years.

The H5N1 virus does not usually infect humans. However, in 1997, the first case of spread from a bird to a human occurred in Hong Kong during an outbreak of bird flu in poultry. The virus caused severe respiratory illness in 18 people, six of whom died. Since that time, more than 170 cases of known H5N1 infection have occurred among humans worldwide, approximately half of whom died.

Based on the published sequence of the Vietnam strain of the H5N1 avian influenza virus, members of the University of Pittsburgh Vector Core Facility, led by Wentao Gao, Ph.D., research instructor in the School of Medicine’s department of surgery, constructed several adenovirus “vectors”—viruses that have been modified to serve as a vector, or delivery vehicle, for foreign genes or DNA—containing either the full genetic sequence of the HA protein or sequences for only parts, or subunits, of HA. They also constructed a vector containing sequences for a portion of the HA protein from the H5N1 Hong Kong strain.

Collaborating with investigators Xiuhua Lu, Ph.D., Doan C. Nguyen, M.D., Yumi Matsuoka, Ph.D., Ruben O. Donis, Ph.D., and Jaquelin M. Katz, Ph.D., of the Influenza Branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Gambotto’s team tested the ability of their slightly different vaccines to protect mice from infection by wild-type H5N1 by comparing its performance to an adenovirus vector containing no H5N1 genes, or an “empty vector.” The investigators then observed the H5NI-exposed mice for any signs of illness, including weight loss and death, and also checked their blood for anti-viral antibodies and other markers of H5N1-specific immunity.

All of the mice immunized with the empty vector vaccine experienced substantial weight loss beginning about three days after exposure to wild-type H5N1, and all were dead within six to nine days of avian flu exposure. In sharp contrast, most of the mice immunized with the adenovirus containing either the whole or part of the HA protein showed only mild and short-lived weight loss and survived H5N1 infection.

When the investigators looked for evidence of a specific immune response to H5N1, they found similar results. Although they were able to isolate high levels of infectious H5N1 from multiple organs in the mice vaccinated with the empty vector, and to various degrees in animals vaccinated with the vectors containing the HA subunits, they isolated only very small amounts of H5N1 from the mice immunized with the full-length HA vaccine three days after infection. Six days after infection, they could not detect any infectious H5N1 in the organs of mice immunized with the full-length HA vaccine.

Moreover, when they looked at the cellular immune response to vaccination, they found that all of the animals immunized with full-length HA or the subunit vaccines developed strong cellular immune responses. However, only the full-length HA-immunized mice developed strong T-cell responses to both of the HA subunits. According to Simon Barratt-Boyes, B.V.Sc., Ph.D., associate professor, department of infectious diseases and microbiology, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, and one of the co-authors of the study, the ability of this particular recombinant vaccine—a vaccine carrying only the important immune-stimulating proteins—to induce both antibody- and T cell-directed immunity is extremely encouraging.

“This means that this recombinant vaccine can stimulate several lines of defense against the H5N1 virus, giving it greater therapeutic value. More importantly, it suggests that even if H5N1 mutates, the vaccine is still likely to be effective against it. How effective, we are not sure,” Dr. Barratt-Boyes cautioned. “We won’t know until that occurs.”

Based on the superior degree of protection that they found in mice vaccinated with full-length HA vaccine, Dr. Gambotto’s group, working with David E. Swayne, D.V.M., Ph.D., at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, tested its effectiveness in chickens, which have almost a 100 percent mortality rate to H5N1 exposure. In all, the researchers inoculated four groups of chickens either through their noses (intranasally) or with subcutaneous injections of either the HA-containing vaccine or the empty vector vaccine. The chickens were then challenged with a dose of whole H5N1 virus 10,000 times greater than the dose given to the mice and significantly greater than the dose farm chickens are likely to be exposed to during a natural outbreak.

Interestingly, all of the chickens that were immunized subcutaneously survived exposure to H5N1, developed strong HA-specific antibody responses and showed no clinical signs of disease. In contrast, half of the chickens immunized intranasally died and half survived. All of the chickens immunized with the empty vector (intranasally and subcutaneously) died within two days of H5N1 exposure. The researchers are still not yet sure why the subcutaneous delivery is more effective than the intranasal delivery of the vaccine, but they suggested it may be because the adenovirus vector they used has limited infectivity via the nose and respiratory tract.

Dr. Gambotto and his colleagues suggest that rather than replacing traditional inactivated influenza vaccines, their adenovirus-based vaccine could be a critically important complement to them. Because it appears to be so successful in immunizing chickens against H5N1, widespread inoculation of susceptible poultry populations could provide a significant barrier to the spread of the virus via that route in this country and other countries that have so far been spared from avian flu. Also, if there were a disruption in the traditional vaccine production pipeline, a recombinant vaccine could be an attractive alternative for human immunization as well, they said.

Indeed, according to Dr. Gambotto, there are several major advantages to this type of vaccine development approach over traditional approaches. Flu vaccines currently are prepared in fertilized chicken eggs, a process developed more than 50 years ago that requires millions of fertilized eggs that would be in short supply if a pandemic—a widespread, global outbreak—were to occur. The recombinant vaccine approach grows the vaccine in cell cultures, which are unlimited in supply. Another major advantage of this approach is its speed.

“It takes a little over a month for us to develop a recombinant vector vaccine compared to a minimum of several months via traditional methods,” he explained. “This capacity will be particularly invaluable if the virus begins to mutate rapidly, a phenomenon that often limits the ability of traditional vaccines to contain outbreaks of mutant strains.” Dr. Gambotto added that his group is planning a small clinical trial of the vaccine in humans in the very near future.

University of Pittsburgh Medical Center

Print this page
E-mail this page to a friend
More articles about " avian flu virus "
 
=




<B><center><font size=+1 color=blue>Flu victims are isolated </font>

By JACQUI THORNTON
Health Editor
<A href="http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006040257,00.html">www.thesun.co.uk</a></center>
TWENTY people have had urgent oxygen-tent treatment in Britain for suspected bird flu, it emerged last night.

They were treated in the past six months as the bug spread from Asia to Turkey.

The patients were put in sealed oxygen chambers to isolate possible contamination while they were assessed. </b>

From the moment they entered hospital they were subject to special measures.

They were met at the doors after being sent by worried GPs and ushered to isolation areas.

Medics in special masks, eye protection and gowns took blood samples for analysis.

The patients were then kept in the “negative pressure” oxygen chambers.

These have lower air pressure inside than out — stopping infections escaping.

All those tested for the H5N1 strain of bird flu were negative, the Department of Health confirmed.

A spokeswoman said: “Since last June we have had 20 negatives, from people visiting Vietnam, Thailand and China or people with families in those areas. They will have felt unwell and gone to the doctor.

“More recently we have had people who have come back from Turkey who have had respiratory illness.

“They have been tested and they have not got H5N1.”

There have been no cases of bird flu in Britain so far, but 80 people have died worldwide, including four in Turkey.

Victims contract the virus through close contact with sick birds.

However, experts fear the virus could mutate into a form that passes easily between humans, putting millions of lives at risk around the world.
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
China lifts quarantine in all area hit by avian flu
UPDATED: 08:56, January 28, 2006

< Ministry of Agriculture has announced quarantine has been lifted in all areas affected by the avian flu on the Chinese mainland as an avian flu-affected area in southwest China was declared safe by local government earlier Friday.

Citing a report from the Quizhou provincial government, the ministry said quarantine was lifted Friday morning in a bird flu-hit area in southwestern Guizhou Province following all live bird were culled and no new case was reported in the epidemic area during the past 21 days.

Prior to the move, quarantine in 32 of the 33 areas hit by the disease on the mainland had been lifted by local governments after their epidemic situation was brought under control.

A ministry official said 33 counties or districts in 26 prefectures or cities in 14 provincial areas had been hit by the disease since last year. But the ministry urged precaution against any possible outbreak of new cases in the coming months.

With the approval by the Ministry of Agriculture, Wudang district in the provincial capital Guiyang was lifted of a three-week quarantine at 8:00 a.m.

The district was put under quarantine following an H5N1 avian influenza outbreak among quails on Jan. 6. The local live fowl market was closed, all sick and suspected birds culled and local chicken farms strictly sterilized.

No new case has been spotted by Friday and the quarantine work has been checked and accepted by an expert panel of the provincial quarantine authorities.

The provincial government has inspired quarantine authorities to step up inspection and disseminate bird flu prevention and control knowledge among fowl raisers and consumers.

Source: Xinhua

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200601/28/eng20060128_239006.html

:vik:
 
Top