01/13 | Turkish H5N1 "Is Mutating" Scientists Say

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Bird flu mutating, scientists say</font>

From: Reuters
January 13, 2006
<A href="http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,17809962-401,00.html">www.news.com.au</a></center>
GENETIC tests of samples taken from Turkish victims of the bird flu virus show it has made a small change, but probably not enough to make it more dangerous yet, researchers said.

The mutation is one of those that would be expected in a highly changeable virus, the experts said – and is one of those that would be predicted to eventually allow it to cause a pandemic.</b>

H5N1 avian influenza has caused a burst of human infections in Turkey and has been found in flocks of poultry across the country. It has killed at least two children in Turkey, probably three, and infected a total of 18 people, according to Turkish authorities and the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Globally it has infected just 147 people and killed 78 of them, according to the tally from the WHO, which only includes four of the Turkish cases.

Samples from two of the first Turkish victims were sent to a WHO-affiliated laboratory in Britain for analysis. Scientists are carefully watching the virus to see if it makes the changes needed to allow it to easily pass from human to human – which could spark a pandemic that could kill millions.

There were two different strains of virus in the bodies of the teenage victims, said Dr. Ruben Donis, team leader of the molecular genetics team of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention's Influenza branch.


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"One was a regular virus like we have seen in poultry in Turkey before – no surprises there," Donis said.
But half the viruses had a mutation in the a protein called hemagglutinin, which influenza viruses use to attach to the cells they infect. This protein is the "H" in a flu virus's designation.

This mutation has been found in the past to allow the virus to infect a greater range of cells via a structure known as sialic acid, Donis said.

"If you have this mutation, you have virus that can bind to more different sialic acid variations," he said.

This is only theoretical, Donis stressed. But when researchers have tested flu viruses in the lab, they found this particular mutation gave the virus a better ability to attach to human-like cells.

A spokeswoman at the WHO said there was no evidence the mutation had much significance in making the virus either more transmissible to people, or more or less dangerous to them.

"It doesn't look as if it has significance regarding transmissibility or pathogenicity because it is not borne out by epidemiological evidence we have so far," WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng said in Geneva.

Donis said similar mutations have been seen in H5N1, in Hong Kong in 2003, when it first re-emerged in people, and later in Vietnam.

"If this was a wildfire mutation that would have caused the virus to spread like wildfire in a population, we would have seen it more often," he said.

The H5N1 virus remains largely a virus that affects birds. But all influenza viruses mutate and evolve very easily, and regularly change into what are known as pandemic strains, which spread rapidly around the world, infecting and killing unusually large numbers of people.

There has not been a flu pandemic since 1968 and health experts feel the world is overdue.

The H5N1 virus, they say, resembles the H1N1 virus that apparently jumped from birds to humans in 1918, causing an especially deadly pandemic before the virus evolved into a less dangerous form and the human population built up an immunity to it.

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<B><center>HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt Joins Governor Joe Manchin at West Virginia Pandemic Planning Summit </B></center>

<A href="http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=ind_focus.story&STORY=/www/story/01-12-2006/0004248232&EDATE=THU+Jan+12+2006,+03:50+PM">www.presswire.com</a>

WASHINGTON, Jan. 12 /PRNewswire/ -- Acknowledging that pandemics happen
and require a strong local response, Governor Joe Manchin and HHS Secretary
Mike Leavitt addressed public health officials, business and community leaders
about pandemic flu preparedness. Secretary Leavitt is in West Virginia as part
of a national tour of states, as the federal government prepares the country
for a potential influenza pandemic.

"Pandemics are global in nature but their effects are always local, so I
am pleased that Governor Manchin is taking a leadership role to prepare West
Virginia for this threat," Secretary Leavitt said. "Pandemic planning needs to
address how schools, businesses, public agencies, faith-based organizations
and others participate in pandemic preparedness. With this meeting, local
officials can identify needs specific to West Virginia communities and begin
crucial coordination to assure readiness if a pandemic outbreak strikes."

Governor Manchin said he was pleased to see a high level of commitment
from diverse groups evidenced by the large number of participants attending
the summit. "I am pleased to be a catalyst for a dialogue that will involve
virtually every constituency group in the state. This dialogue will open our
eyes to areas that need more attention and allow successful initiatives to be
shared. Preparedness saves lives and helps preserve vital services and
maintain productivity. We will do everything we can to insure that West
Virginians are well prepared."

The event is West Virginia's first statewide gathering to address pandemic
readiness planning, and will give a broad range of organizations an
opportunity to participate in the process. Invited guests include first
responders, business leaders, educators, health care providers, faith-based
organizations, volunteer agencies, policymakers and others.

Secretary Leavitt outlined a series of in-state summits to address
pandemic preparedness Dec. 5. The in-state summits will help the public
health and emergency response community in each state inform and involve their
political, economic and community leadership in this process.

Secretary Leavitt and other top HHS officials will participate in the meetings over the next few months. HHS has also prepared tools to help with the planning
process, including a state and local checklist, a business checklist, a guide
for individuals and families, and a checklist for faith-based organizations.
The guides were distributed at the summit.

More information on pandemic flu readiness is available at
http://www.pandemicflu.gov.

Note: All HHS press releases, fact sheets and other press materials are
available at http://www.hhs.gov/news.

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>New Threat From Mutating Bird Flu </font>

Thursday January 12, 06:54 PM
<A href="http://uk.news.yahoo.com/12012006/140/new-threat-mutating-bird-flu.html">uk.news.yahoo.com</a></center>
The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu may be mutating towards a form adapted to humans, British scientists have claimed.Medical Research Council experts in north London said they had completed their analysis of viruses taken from two fatal cases of bird flu in Turkey.The research revealed mutations from one case which had previously been seen in flu viruses from Hong Kong in 2003 and Vietnam in 2005.</b>

The MRC said the viruses were closely related to current H5N1 viruses in Turkey, and also viruses

isolated at Qinghai Lake in western China last year.

Qinghai Lake is a congregation point for migratory birds, raising fears that it may be a staging post for the spread of H5N1.

The gene sequences of the viruses indicated that they were sensitive to the antiviral drugs Tamiflu and amantadine, said the scientists.

Experts' biggest fear is that H5N1 will change into a form that can spread easily from person to person.

If that happened it could trigger a global pandemic with the loss of many millions of lives.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Porous borders add to Iraq bird flu fears</font>

12 Jan 2006 17:18:23 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Mariam Karouny
<A href="http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/KAR256211.htm">www.alertnet.org</a></center>
BAGHDAD, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Iraq said on Thursday it was on high alert to prevent the spread of avian flu from neighbouring Turkey, but officials conceded that poor border controls would make it difficult to enforce a ban on importing birds.</b>

Iraq has been trying to secure porous borders with its neighbours, particularly Syria, since 2003 to stop the flow of foreign insurgents but with little success. Tribes living along border areas also make a living from smuggling goods.

Despite these difficulties, the head of a committee set up by Iraq's health and agriculture ministries to tackle bird flu is confident that the country can avoid being touched by the H5N1 virus that has spread from Asia to Europe's doorstep.

But, it needs help -- both money and expertise.

"We are taking the situation seriously, but we need many things. We need funds and also we need more communication with international health groups, in person not via letters," Abdul Jali Hassan told Reuters.

"We have been on high alert since October, and now even more so after bird flu was discovered in Turkey," he said. "We have issued orders to border officials to check (the poultry imports), but it is a bit difficult knowing the conditions."

He said Iraq had also banned imports of poultry from Turkey, "but in a country like Iraq many people import on their own, it is not organised".

Iraqi authorities say they also have no complete records of slaughterhouses in Iraq, making their job of monitoring any outbreak even more difficult.

"But we are working on locating them and counting them, then we will monitor their work," Hassan said.

Seven government ministries would hold meetings within two days to decide whether further steps needed to be taken, he added.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has been found in wild birds and poultry across large parts of Turkey, particularly in poor villages stretching from Istanbul at the gates of Europe to Van near the Iranian and Iraqi borders.

Turkey says the virus has infected 18 people, including three children from the east of the country who died last week.

Migrating wild birds, often seen as a carrier of the virus, are due to start arriving soon at Lake Ducan in Kurdistan in northern Iraq.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Alarm over bird flu grows</font>

Friday 13 January 2006, 0:45 Makka Time, 21:45 GMT
<A href="http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7B0A26E3-E544-473A-B7F3-3B6CD797E27B.htm">english.aljazeera.net</a></b>

<i>Bird flu has so far infected 147 people and killed 78 of them </i></center>

<b>One of two boys who tested positive for bird flu in Turkey has now begun showing symptoms, Turkish officials said on Thursday as experts cautioned the threat of a pandemic is steadily growing. </b>

The board of the World Bank endorsed $500 million in aid to help countries deal with H5N1 avian influenza, while US health officials dispersed $100 million for state and local preparedness.

The virus, while it is spreading and changing, still poses no immediate threat of a pandemic, experts stress it could do so at any time. They say it is vital to prepare emergency response teams, stockpile drugs and build up surveillance networks to detect new outbreaks.

The H5N1 virus has been found in wild birds and poultry across large parts of Turkey, particularly in poor villages stretching from Istanbul, on the borders of Europe, to Van near the Iranian and Iraqi borders.

It has killed three children in Turkey and the World Health Organisation says a total of 18 people have been infected. All had close contact with sick chickens.


Thousands of birds have been
killed so far in Turkey

Globally H5N1 has infected 147 people and killed 78 of them, according to the latest official WHO tally, which includes only four of the Turkish cases.

Worsening situation

"As the new cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus in Turkey show, the situation is worsening with each passing month and the threat of an influenza pandemic is continuing to grow every day," Shigeru Omi, the WHO's regional director for the Western Pacific, told a meeting of Asian countries and international organisations on bird flu in Tokyo.

Indonesia reported the death of a 29-year-old woman who had tested positive for bird flu, which would bring its total to 12 deaths.

The two latest confirmed Turkish patients were a one-year-old girl and a boy aged four. Both were from southeastern Turkey and reported to be in a stable condition.

Turkey's Health Ministry said tests confirmed a third Turkish child who died last week, the sister of two teenagers killed by the virus, also had an H5N1 infection.

WHO tests

And one of the two boys in Ankara hospital who mysteriously tested positive for H5N1 without having any signs of illness had begun showing symptoms, said Dr Guenael Rodier, head of the WHO mission to Turkey.

"As the new cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus in Turkey show, the situation is worsening with each passing month and the threat of an influenza pandemic is continuing to grow every day"

Shigeru Omi,
WHO's regional director for the Western Pacific



A WHO lab in Britain ran genetic tests on samples of the virus taken from two of the first Turkish victims and found a mutation that could, in theory, help make the virus more transmissible from birds to people.

Scientists stressed they have no evidence the virus is any more dangerous yet, and said the same mutation has been seen before without causing a big outbreak. But it shows the need for careful watching and testing, they said.

The Turkish authorities have killed more than 350,000 birds in the past two weeks. A three kilometre quarantine zone has been set up around infected areas, and information broadcast via television commercials and vans fitted with loudspeakers.

World Bank

The World Bank was pressing for funding to help the worst-affected countries cope, and endorsed spending $500 million, ahead of a meeting of donors next week in Beijing.

World Bank Vice President Jim Adams told Reuters that Kyrgyzstan would be the first beneficiary and would get $5 million to prepare for bird flu.

Adams was "cautiously optimistic" that donor countries will add another $1 billion at the Beijing meeting.

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<B><center>January 13, 2006

<font size=+1 color=red><center>Victims of Turkish bird flu had a mutated virus strain</font>

By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent
<A href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,25149-1983111,00.html">www.timesonline.co.uk</a></center>
THE bird flu virus that has killed three people in Turkey has acquired a mutation that could make it more dangerous to people, although it is still far from capable of causing a pandemic. </b>

The first genetic analysis of H5N1 virus samples from two of the three Turkish victims has revealed one change that may make it easier for human beings to contract the virus directly from birds. However, a similar mutation was observed in Hong Kong in 2003 and in Vietnam last year, and did not lead to a significant increase in infections.

Scientists said that the virus had a long way to go before it evolved the capacity to be passed from person to person, the key to a pandemic.

The genome sequences, which have been prepared at the National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR) in London, also indicate that Turkish forms of the virus are susceptible to two antiviral drugs, Tamiflu and amantadine.

Each of the Turkish patients had a slightly different strain of the H5N1 virus, closely related to the avian forms circulating in Turkey and China.

The virus that killed one victim also contained a mutated version of a key protein, haemagglutinin, which controls the way it binds to cells. This may in theory make it slightly more dangerous to people: the mutation makes the virus more capable of attaching itself to human cells before infecting them. But experts said the mutation had been seen before without severe consequences.

Ruben Donis, of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, said: “If this was a wildfire mutation . . . we would have seen it more often.”

Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organisation, said: “It doesn’t look as if it has significance regarding transmissibility or pathogenicity because it is not borne out by epidemiological evidence we have so far.”

Sir John Skehel, director of the NIMR, said that the genome sequences otherwise held few surprises. “These viruses are very closely related to current avian H5N1 viruses in Turkey, and also to those isolated at Qinghai Lake in Western China last year. The gene sequences of the viruses indicate that they are sensitive to the antivirals Tamiflu and amantadine.”

The WHO said that human cases in Turkey had risen from 15 to 18. It has confirmed 147 human cases of H5N1 worldwide and 78 deaths, though this includes only four infections and two deaths in Turkey.

Officials from Turkey, Bulgaria and Greece have agreed to co-operate in efforts to prevent the spread of bird flu, Greek officials said.

Regional governors from five Greek administrative areas met in the northeast city of Xanthi and said that they would be in daily contact with their colleagues in border areas in Bulgaria and Turkey.

“We’re a stone’s throw away from the problem and we are well aware of this,” Nikos Zambounidis, Governor of the Evros border region, said.

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<B><center>13 January 2006 0813 hrs
<A href="http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/187987/1/.html">www/channelnewsasia.com</a>

<font size=+1 color=brown>Indications bird flu virus mutating: British scientists </font></center>
LONDON - One of two viruses taken from two fatal cases of bird flu in Turkey showed similar mutations to previous flu viruses in Hong Kong and Vietnam in recent years, British scientists announced Thursday. </b>

The British government-funded Medical Research Council (MRC) and the World Health Organisation (WHO) said the analysis suggested the potentially deadly H5N1 strain is mutating towards a form adapted to humans.

The research revealed mutations from one case which have previously been seen in flu viruses from Hong Kong in 2003 and Vietnam in 2005, involving a protein that binds to receptors, or docking points, on the surfaces of cells.

John Skehel, director of the MRC's National Institute for Medical Research, and WHO said in a joint statement: "Research has indicated that the Hong Kong 2003 viruses preferred to bind to human cell receptors more than to avian (bird) receptors, and it is expected that the Turkish virus will also have this characteristic."

The Hong Kong and Vietnam viruses were "very closely related" to current H5N1 viruses in Turkey, and also viruses isolated at Qinghai Lake, western China, last year, the scientists added.

Qinghai Lake is a congregation point for migratory birds, raising fears that it could be a staging post for the spread of H5N1.

The gene sequences of the viruses indicated that they were sensitive to the antiviral drugs Tamiflu and amantadine, the scientists said.

Fears about the H5N1 strain spreading between humans -- and triggering a global pandemic with the loss of millions of lives -- were heightened last week when 18 people were infected with the virus in eastern Turkey.

Three of the 18, all children, died. The deaths and infections were the first outside Southeast Asia. - AFP/ir

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Turkey's government accused of slow response to bird flu
as human cases mount </font>

By Benjamin Harvey
ASSOCIATED PRESS
12:48 p.m. January 12, 2006
<A href="http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20060112-1248-turkey-birdflu.html">www.signonsandiego.com</a></center>
DOGUBAYAZIT, Turkey – Local officials accused Turkey's government Thursday of moving too slowly to slaughter fowl when bird flu was still confined to birds, as the number of people infected with the deadly H5N1 strain climbed to 18. </b>

Mukkades Kubilay, the mayor of Dogubayazit – where three siblings died a week ago – complained that Ankara had sent in only three doctors and that there were not enough workers to destroy poultry.

"It's an extraordinary situation," she told The Associated Press. "There aren't enough workers. We don't have enough technical people ... We're trying to do it on our own."

National health and agriculture authorities denied they did too little, too late, to contain the outbreak, which was discovered in poultry in December.

"Whoever says that we've responded too slowly has ill intentions," Health Ministry spokeswoman Mine Tuncel said.

Agriculture Minister Mehdi Eker insisted there was no delay in responding to the first reports of infected birds on Dec. 15 and culling of poultry began immediately. "The fight against this disease had been pursued through a clear and transparent policy," he said.

Questions about whether the government acted aggressively enough early in the outbreak emerged as officials tried to contain the disease, which Eker said had been confirmed in 11 of Turkey's 81 provinces and was suspected in 14 others.

European Union experts also urged nations bordering Turkey to step up checks on any possible spread of the bird flu outbreak and prepare measures to control the disease.

Turkish health authorities, meanwhile, raised the number of people infected with H5N1 from 15 to 18, after it turned up in preliminary tests on two people hospitalized in southeastern Turkey and in a lung of an 11-year-old girl who died last week in the same region. The girl was the sister of two teenagers who became the first fatalities outside East Asia, where the strain has killed 76 people since 2003.

Although three of the 18 people confirmed with the virus have died, several others are in stable condition or show few signs of illness, suggesting the virus may not be as deadly as had been believed. Previously, more than half of those confirmed to have contracted the disease died.

Eight-year-old Sumeyya Mamuk, who became infected with bird flu after embracing dying pet chickens, was released from a hospital in the eastern city of Van on Thursday.

Health Minister Recep Akdag was optimistic. "The EU and the world will see Turkey put its signature on a great success," he told the Cihan news agency. "The fact that we have handled the affair from the onset with openness and determination is a clear indication."

The World Health Organization reported Thursday that a full genetic analysis of samples from Turkey had shown no meaningful changes to the DNA of the virus amid fears it could mutate into a strain easily passed between people and trigger a pandemic.

Most human infections have been linked to direct contact with sick poultry, including both of the latest victims, who the Health Ministry said came from the southeastern provinces of Siirt and Sanliurfa.

Authorities said 355,000 birds had been slaughtered nationwide as a precaution, including 27,000 in Dogubayazit.

But Agriculture Ministry workers trying to round up and destroy all fowl in Dogubayazit complained they had only 24 people working in a city of 56,000 and it could take them a month to finish the job.

In Ankara, where three human cases have been detected but the destruction of birds has been confined to the patients' neighborhoods, former President Suleyman Demirel handed over his own dozen chickens as an example to Turks.

But Zeki Ismailogullari, chief official in the village of Karakent outside Dogubayazit, expressed bewilderment as villagers – including some children who wore masks but handled birds with their bare hands – brought fowl in sacks and wheelbarrows to a destruction site.

"Before, when a guest came to our village, we'd cut up a goose or a turkey for them," he said. "Now what will we cut up?"

Bump

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6aa9e306-83d9-11da-9017-0000779e2340.html

By David Pilling in Tokyo
Published: January 13 2006 02:00 | Last updated: January 13 2006 02:00


The World Health Organisation yesterday predicted authorities might need to use the army and police to quarantine about 120,000 people to contain aninitial pandemic flu outbreak of just 19 cases.

Hitoshi Oshitani, a consultant to WHO, said his estimates highlighted the difficulty of formulating a rapid response toan initial outbreak of mutated bird flu transmitted between humans.

Not only would such aggressive quarantining raise legal and human rights concerns, he said, but knowledge about how to use antiviral drugs as a preventative measure was limited.

Mr Oshitani, who presented his simulation at an international conference in Tokyo, said the first requirement was rapid detection.

"Timeliness is key. If we do things the way we do right now, it will probably be too late," he said, adding that two weeks after an outbreak was probably the absolute limit.

Experts said that preventing an outbreak from spreading rapidly would be difficult even if there was timely confirmation. Kenji Fukuda, a researcher at WHO's global influenza programme, said: "Right now we do not know the optimum dosage or length of treatment for prophylactic treatment."

Officials said Roche, the Swiss pharmaceuticals company that manufactures Tamiflu, was only now designing protocols to test effective use of the antiviral as a preventative medicine. Still experts said containment was the best hope of preventing a mutated virus from spreading.

*The H5N1 avian flu virus that killed three people in Turkey has made a small mutation that may adapt it more closely to infecting people but it is still a long way from "going human" and starting a pandemic, according to a largely reassuring genetic analysis released last night by the World Health Organisation and UK Medical Research Council, adds Clive Cookson.

The WHO's international flu centre in London said the mutation was in the gene for haemagglutinin, a protein used by flu virus to attach itself to host cells.

A similar mutation has been found previously in viruses taken from human victims of H5N1 in Vietnam and Hong Kong.

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsA...025859Z_01_DIT050257_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU.XML

By Paul de Bendern and Gareth Jones

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkish authorities struggled to contain a spreading outbreak of avian influenza on Thursday, setting up quarantine zones around infected areas and sending samples of virus to laboratories for testing to ensure it is not evolving into a more dangerous form.

Neighboring countries expressed concern the virus might spread to its poultry flocks. Iraq said it was on high alert, but officials conceded that poor border controls would make it difficult to enforce a ban on importing birds.

Global officials said they were gathering steam to help fight the virus, with the board of the World Bank endorsing $500 million in aid to help countries hit by the virus or that are at high risk.

The World Health Organization said Turkish officials had now documented 18 human cases of H5N1 avian influenza infection and said three children had died. One boy who was found to be infected without being sick had begun to show symptoms, WHO officials said.

"Human cases have now been reported from nine of the country's 81 provinces," the WHO said in a statement posted on its Web site.

The two newest patients are young children, aged 4 and 6, WHO said. "Both have a documented history of direct contact with diseased birds," it said.

"Altogether, agricultural officials have confirmed poultry outbreaks in 11 provinces and are investigating possible outbreaks in an additional 14 provinces across the country."

CLOSE CONTACT WITH BIRDS

The more birds are infected, the more likely that people could become infected through close contact. Experts said as cold weather forced animals and people indoors together, especially in rural areas, animal-to-human infections could become even more common.

A British lab found that two of the first Turkish victims were infected with a slightly mutated strain of H5N1.

Although it did not seem to be more dangerous, the mutation in theory could help the virus more easily pass from a chicken to a human. Of gravest concern is that the H5N1 virus will mutate so it passes from human to human.

WHO said its experts were working with Turkish officials to study the virus and its patterns of attack. More samples of virus were en route to labs, WHO said.

"These studies should deepen understanding of the epidemiology of the disease, including the possibility that any human-to-human transmission may have occurred, the vulnerability to infection of health care workers and other occupationally-exposed groups, and the possibility that milder forms of the disease might be occurring in the general population," WHO said.

The good news was that the virus seems sensitive to the few drugs available to treat patients, WHO said.

Turkish officials said they had set up a 2-mile (3-km) quarantine zone around infected areas, and information was being broadcast via television commercials and vans fitted with loudspeakers.

They said they had culled more than 350,000 birds in the past two weeks.

Fears hit poultry markets. The U.S. Agriculture Department said chicken meat exports would be 315 million pounds (143 million kg) less than previously forecast because consumers in Turkey and other countries affected by the deadly bird flu disease were eating less poultry.

Globally H5N1 has infected 147 people and killed 78 of them, according to the latest official WHO tally, which includes only four of the Turkish cases.

NOT MORE DANGEROUS -- YET

Scientists stressed they have no evidence the virus has become more, and said the same mutation has been seen before without causing a big outbreak. But it shows the need for careful watching and testing, they said.

"When we have a child infected we are giving the virus more chance to adapt to human beings and giving it this chance could help create conditions of the emergence of a new virus," Rodier said in an interview.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the mutation affected the ability of the virus to infect cells. "It is really unclear what this means," Fauci said in a telephone interview.

"This same mutation was identified in 2003 in Hong Kong and yet did not take off in a way that led to greater transmissibility either from chicken to human or human to human."

The World Bank was pressing for funding to help the worst-affected countries cope, and endorsed spending $500 million, ahead of a meeting of donors next week in Beijing where it was hoped $1 billion more would be pledged.

World Bank Vice President Jim Adams told Reuters that Kyrgyzstan would be the first beneficiary and would get $5 million to prepare for bird flu. He said Turkey could be in line for some money, too.

(Additional reporting by Daren Butler in Van, Richard Waddington and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva, and Lesley Wroughton, Christopher Doering and Maggie Fox in Washington)

Earlier tonight on CNN they said some people in Turkey are hiding their birds (chickens) from authorities to prevent them from being killed. Even if one or two of their flock had died, they then hide the dead ones to save the live ones. Very scary.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Scientists Find Mutation</font>

Updated: 06:05, Friday January 13, 2006
<A href="http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-13492428,00.html?f=rss">www.sky.com</a></center>
British scientists have discovered that the bird flu virus is mutating towards a form that may make humans susceptible.

Medical Research Council experts examined samples of the virus taken from two of the children killed in the outbreak in Turkey.</b>

It revealed mutations from one case which had previously been seen in flu viruses from Hong Kong in 2003 and Vietnam in 2005.

The MRC said the viruses were closely related to current H5N1 viruses in Turkey and viruses isolated at Qinghai Lake in western China last year.

Qinghai Lake is a congregation point for migratory birds, raising fears it may be a staging post for the spread of H5N1.

The gene sequences of the viruses indicated they were sensitive to the antiviral drugs Tamiflu and amantadine, the scientists said.

Experts' biggest fear is that H5N1 will change into a form that can spread easily from person to person.

If that happened it could trigger a global pandemic with the loss of many millions of lives.

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<B><center>Friday, January 13, 2006. 8:47am (AEDT)
<A href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200601/s1546805.htm">www.abc.net.au</a>

<font size=+1 color=brown>Bird flu may be adapting to humans: scientists</font></center>
Scientists say analysis of Turkey's two fatal bird flu cases suggests the potentially deadly H5N1 strain is mutating toward a form adapted to humans.</b>

They say one of two viruses taken from the two cases shows similar mutations to recent Asian flu viruses but the change is probably not enough to make it more dangerous yet.

The research comes as Turkey confirms the H5N1 strain has killed a third person, an 11-year-old girl, whose two siblings have also died from the bird flu in the eastern Turkish city of Van.

The British Medical Research Council (MRC) and World Health Organisation (WHO) scientists have found mutations previously seen in flu viruses from Hong Kong in 2003 and Vietnam in 2005.

They say they involve a protein that binds to receptors on the surfaces of cells.

"Research has indicated that the Hong Kong 2003 viruses preferred to bind to human cell receptors more than to avian receptors and it is expected that the Turkish virus will also have this characteristic," their statement said.

The experts say the mutation is one that would be expected in a highly changeable virus and is predicted to eventually allow it to cause a pandemic.

The scientists say the Hong Kong and Vietnam viruses were "very closely related" to current H5N1 viruses in Turkey, as well as viruses isolated in western China.

The western Chinese area of Qinghai Lake is a congregation point for migratory birds, raising fears it could be a staging post for the spread of H5N1.

The MRC and WHO say the viruses' gene sequences indicate they are sensitive to antiviral drugs Tamiflu and amantadine.

Fears about the H5N1 strain spreading between humans and triggering a global pandemic were heightened last week when 18 people were infected with the virus in eastern Turkey.

Three of them, all children, died in the first cases outside south-east Asia.

Indonesia announced a 13th bird flu death yesterday.

Aid

Meanwhile, World Bank member countries have endorsed more than $660 million in aid to help countries deal with the bird flu.

The donation comes ahead of next week's meeting in Beijing where additional funds will be sought.

The World Bank's vice president for operations policy and country services, Jim Adams, says Kyrgyzstan will be the first country to benefit with about $6.7 million to prepare for the bird flu.

"We have flexibility now to go out and negotiate with individual countries to provide money," he said.

He says he is "cautiously optimistic" donor countries will be able to fill a more than $1.3 billion financing gap at the Beijing meeting.

He says the Turkish outbreak has demonstrated the need for a swift reaction.

"There is some literature that says this is being exaggerated but I tried very hard to underline that we're taking a balanced approach," he said.

"We don't want to get into a box, where if nothing happens in the next six months we get criticised.

"On the other hand, we think the risks are such that this broader program is justified."

A World Bank assessment has found Turkey may need about $30 million in funding to improve its surveillance, veterinary services and communications on bird flu.

- AFP/Reuters

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Doomsday scenario</font>

January 12 2006
<A href="http://www.leedstoday.net/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=102&ArticleID=1311789">www.leedstoday.net</a></center>
With the news that 77 people have contracted bird flu in Japan following hard on the heels of a string of deaths in Turkey, the threat of the virus coming to Britain has never been greater, reports Grant Woodward. </b>

IN a laboratory in London, a team of scientists are racing against the clock to complete research that may just hold the key to whether millions of people live or die.

The experts from the National Institute of Medical Research are busy working out the genetic code of the Turkish strain of bird flu, using samples taken from its latest victims.

Their answers will provide clues to the origins of the virus and the chances of it starting a global epidemic.

Crucially, it is hoped their work will also reveal whether it is resistant to Tamiflu, the drug that is hurriedly being stockpiled by governments in a bid to fight any outbreak.

Nine years after the first reports of bird flu being passed from chickens to humans, Britain now faces an anxious wait to discover if the virus will reach its shores.

The outbreaks in eastern Turkey and the capital Ankara have greatly increased the danger, and Professor Colin Blakemore, chairman of the Medical Research Council, believes there is a strong possibility that the deadly H5N1 strain will land here.

"I think the chance must be high because birds migrate," he said. "There is certainly a cause for concern, preparation and vigilance."

Resistance to Tamiflu would be "alarming", he added, because the drug is "the main line of defence".

In the meantime, the European Union has widened a ban on imports of live birds and poultry products, including feathers.

The ban, which already covered Turkey, now includes countries that border it – Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Syria, Iran and Iraq.

In Britain, the Department of Health has enough Tamiflu to treat 25 per cent of the population.

The anti-viral drug lessens the severity of the symptoms of the illness and shortens the length of time the patient suffers from it.

It is believed that the current form of the virus is caught by handling infected poultry, and is being passed on via the birds' blood or faeces. There is no evidence to suggest it can be contracted by eating cooked poultry.

In the event of an outbreak here, commercial poultry keepers would be asked to keep their birds isolated, whilst diseased birds would be culled.

However, something far more frightening must also be planned for.

The biggest threat to humans would be if the virus combined with human flu, enabling it to be passed on from one person to another.

It has done so in the past with catastrophic consequences.

The so-called "Spanish flu" of 1918 claimed as many as 50 million lives and two similar, although less serious, outbreaks occured in the 1950s and 1960s.

In a bid to cope with such a mass outbreak, the Department of Health has awarded "sleeping contracts" to companies which would be called upon to manufacture a vaccine as soon as the first case was diagnosed.

There is the capacity to produce 120 million doses of the drug, although there would be a delay of at least six months while scientists came up with the vaccine itself.

It is not known how many people could die during that period.
"As soon as a human-to-human strain is diagnosed we can start work," said a Department of Health spokeswoman.

"Until that happens it isn't a possibility.

"It would take some time (to create a vaccine). It could take six months.
"Obviously it would be something to be very concerned about in that instance, but there is no way of shortening that process.

"Everything we can do to squeeze time has been done."

The H5N1 strain of influenza – often referred to as bird flu – was first known to have jumped from chickens to humans in 1997 when six people died in Hong Kong.

A poultry cull failed to kill it off and the virus spread, with human cases reported in China in 2003.

The outbreaks started again in summer 2004, ripping through Asian poultry farms. By mid-April 2005 it had caused 51 deaths in Thailand and Vietnam.

The toll has continued to climb in Asia, while the recent deaths in Turkey have increased fears that it could come to Europe.

Health authorities fear this strain, or its descendents, could cause a lethal new flu pandemic with the potential to kill large numbers of people.

If this human-to-human strain does materialise, health experts in West Yorkshire are gearing up to deal with it.

Mike Gent, a consultant in communicable disease control, based at Seacroft Hospital in Leeds, believes such a pandemic – the term given to a worldwide epidemic – is possible but far from inevitable.
Virus

He explains that there are three different types of flu.

There is the annual seasonal flu which claims 3,000, mostly elderly, lives in Britain each year; the H5N1 bird flu virus which can infect humans; and the as-yet-undetected pandemic strain which spreads from human to human.

"The seasonal flu virus has to replicate itself every year and when it does so it sometimes makes a mistake and produces a mutant strain," he said.

"As far as we know, H5N1 has never been a virus that has infected humans before so none of us are immune to it.

"With seasonal flu, you gradually over the years build up a bit of resistance to it.
"But if H5N1 mutates again and by some fluke becomes able to be transmitted between humans then that is a new virus which nobody would have been exposed to, so we would have no resistance to it.

"Nobody can give you a percentage chance that H5N1 will even produce a pandemic strain, or say when or describe exactly what it will be until it happens.
Mutation

"The risk with bird flu spreading is that more and more humans are exposed to it, which gives it more of a chance of mutating and producing the pandemic strain.
"We need to concentrate efforts on that scenario."

Gent says that if bird flu does reach Britain, Tamiflu could be administered to those who catch the virus from birds. Should the human-to-human strain emerge, he believes it could also be used to treat those infected.

"A vaccine would be the best defence but it could be eight months for it to become available. It takes time to produce a vaccine, then test and manufacture it."

But despite the threat posed by bird flu, he warns against panic.
"It's very easy to go back to the 1918 pandemic, which killed up to 50 million people and start convincing yourself into a Domesday scenario of bodies in the street and so on.

"The 1918 outbreak had a devastating effect on the world but another pandemic may not be as serious. It all depends on how virulent the strain is.

"Bird flu currently has a 50 per cent mortality rate, killing half the people it infects, which means it is less able to spread because it kills people before it can be passed to someone else.

"There is also lots of planning going on around the country, including Leeds and the rest of West Yorkshire, to try to get plans in place to deal with a pandemic.
"One of the things that is certain is that a pandemic would cause serious disruption to the country as a whole.

"People would die, schools would have to close and it might be difficult to get hold of food because of a shortage of healthy workers to distribute it. Travel could also be restricted.

"Figures from the pandemic plan issued by the Department of Health estimate that 25 per cent of the population would be infected with virus, with ten to 15 per cent of people off work at any one time.

"But it's all guesswork as no one can be certain as to what will happen.
"It's good that we are aware that this might happen – in 1918 they hadn't even discovered viruses yet.

"At least we should have a bit of advance warning about it."

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Healthcare Minister: We Are Doing Everything Possible
not to Be Affected by the Bird Flu</font>

13 January 2006
FOCUS News Agency
<A href="http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?catid=121&newsid=80580&ch=0&datte=2006-01-13">www.focus-fen.net</a></center>
Sofia. We formed crisis headquarters for fighting the bird flu long time ago. I and the Minister of Agriculture and Forestry are ahead of it. The measures we are taking against the bird flu are unique, the Minister of Healthcare Professor Radoslav Gaydarski stated for bTV. </b>

He thanked the Chief Prosecutor Filchev that he also wants to help. The minister added that there are no cases of bird flu in Bulgaria for the time being. He stated that it was very difficult for a human to be infected by a bird if the rules mentioned in the brochure are abided. He advised that the dead birds should not be touched with bare hands but rather to call the veterinary authorities.

We are doing everything possible so that the bird flu doesn’t affect us, Professor Gaydarski underlined.

GREAT!!!!!! Looks like alot of OT going to be mandated soon!

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Worrisome mutation found in avian flu virus</font>

Updated Thu. Jan. 12 2006 11:27 PM ET
Canadian Press
<A href="http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060112/bird_flu_mutation_060112/20060112?hub=World">www.ctv.ca</a></center>
H5N1 avian flu viruses recovered from one of the children who died last week in Turkey contain a worrisome mutation experts believe would allow similar viruses to infect people more easily.</b>

While there is no evidence the infected child passed the virus to others, flu experts are concerned something may be changing in the structure of the virus that allows this mutation to occur more readily, which could signal the virus is learning to adapt to a human host.

"It worries us, because it is a virus that would theoretically better bind to human cells," Ruben Donis, chief of the molecular genetics section of the influenza branch at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control said Thursday.

H5N1 viruses with this mutation have been seen twice before in a father and son from Hong Kong who died in February 2003 after visiting China's Fujian province and in a fatal case in Vietnam in early 2005.

The World Health Organization's collaborating laboratory in Britain completed genetic analysis Thursday of viruses taken from the first two cases in the Turkish outbreak, a brother and sister from the eastern village of Dogubayazit who died last week.

In one piece of good news, the analysis suggests these viruses were susceptible to all antiviral drugs that target flu, both the adamantanes (amantadine and rimantadine) and the neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir or Tamiflu and zanamivir or Relenza). Some H5N1 viruses are resistant to the adamantane drugs and there have been rare reports of resistance to Tamiflu in viruses from Vietnam.

However, that good news was overshadowed by the revelation that a portion of the viruses recovered from one of the children contained a mutation on what's called position 223 of the hemagglutinin.

The hemagglutinin -- the H in a flu virus's name-- is the protein on the virus's external coat that allows it to attach to a cell it intends to infect.

Position 223 is in the section of the hemagglutinin known as the receptor-binding site, the portion of the virus that dictates which species it can infect. It acts like a key, with different keys needed to unlock or infect the respiratory tracts of chickens and humans.

Changes to even one tooth on the key could allow the H5N1 avian virus to jump more easily into people and potentially between them.

"Any change around the receptor site is viewed with concern," Lance Jennings, a virologist and epidemiologist who has studied H5N1 in Vietnam for the WHO, said in an interview from Christchurch, New Zealand.

Microbiologist Adolfo Garcia-Sastre of Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York said this mutation, on its own, would not allow the avian virus to become "humanized" fully adapted to transmission between people.

"How many mutations are required for the H5 (virus) to become adapted to humans is unclear, but it's going to be multiple. The question is: What combination of mutations makes the virus transmissible from human to human? That's difficult to say."

Jennings said the science of influenza isn't yet advanced enough to know what precise steps or mutations an avian virus must go through to become humanized.

"It's part of a jigsaw we need more pieces (from) to be able to fully understand," he said.

Experts are keen to see analysis of other viruses from the Turkish outbreak collected both from poultry and people. Only that way can one see whether this mutation is a lightning strike or the first sign of an emerging pattern, said Michael Perdue, a scientist with the WHO's global influenza program.

Perdue said Turkish authorities have agreed to send additional specimens from H5N1 cases to the British lab for study. Export of the viruses has been delayed because of the Muslim holiday of Eid, but the British lab is expected to receive them by Monday, the WHO said.

As there has been no evidence of human-to-human spread in the Turkish outbreak, experts believe the mutated virus died with the child from whom it was retrieved.

But Donis said scientists are concerned the virus may be changing in ways that would make it likely such a mutation would arise with increasing frequency.

"That's the biggest question for me: Are the viruses providing a context, a platform that makes this change easier, or more successful? We don't know that," he said from Atlanta.

"It would be difficult to prove. But that's the kind of thinking that is going on."

For Earl Brown, a virologist at the University of Ottawa who specializes in influenza evolution, the news provoked more questions than answers.

"It sounds like this virus is evolving pretty quickly in people. Now the question is how often is this happening in the other people? (And) what's the consequence?

"The fact that this thing appears to be evolving in the people just means that it would be one step in becoming a human-adapted virus. Whether it's a successful human pathogen is still a big question," he noted.

"But this is a glimpse of evolution of this virus in a human."

The ages of the individuals that have died is reminiscent to the 1918 pandemic, it hit the young, those less than 40 quite hard.

"Changes to even one tooth on the key could allow the H5N1 avian virus to jump more easily into people and potentially between them.'

Dutch, that one tooth may be the one to drop the other shoe, yipers! This is starting to sound like "The Stand".

This is a prep event I keep bouncing from one camp of thought to another......

I read the posts here and think Holy Crap! People may start dying from this here, in my country, state, or town. Preppers horror of mass funneral pyres, infected, coughing, zombie like people being herded into cattle cars by FEMA and WHO Doc's, economic collapse, civilization breakdown.......

But then I talk to Medical professionals, some are family, who say it is way overblown, media going for ratings as they did with SARS. The Gov't is in on it also to cover their own butts (in case something does happen), dredge up more cash, feed us on fear, etc.

Then today, on the radio, there was a Doc saying that more people have died from the common flu last month in NYC than all the people either (this is were I asked the store owner to turn it up) infected by or killed by the Bird Flu .

Thanks Dutchman....still not used to that screen name, typed the other twice before getting it right..........for your close and thoughtful work on this to let us glean what we can.

Yes, it does seems there are two entirely different schools of thought. Seems to be all or nothing. I think it will be somewhere in the middle. The thing is, that this is a different strain of flu than the common one, which some of us have been exposed to and built immunity. I think it bears watching....not panic....watching and listening.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>First Turkish bird flu patient leaves hospital</font>

Fri Jan 13, 2006 1:13 PM GMT
By Daren Butler
<A href="http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=globalNews&&storyID=2006-01-13T131329Z_01_COL347553_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-GIRL.xml&&archived=False">today.reuters.co.uk</a></center>
VAN, Turkey (Reuters) - Eight-year-old Sumeyye Mamuk rushed to her dolls as soon as she returned home on Friday after almost two weeks in a hospital bed being treated for the deadly bird flu virus which has swept Turkey.</b>

"I am really happy to be back home and see my family. I have been playing with my friends and dolls," a smiling Sumeyya told Reuters in her house in a poor district of the eastern city Van.

Dressed in a blue denim jacket and skirt with a toy mobile phone around her neck, she called out at curious children peering through the window: "Go away or my daddy will kill you".

Sumeyya has become a bit of a local novelty after she tested positive for the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus which has already killed three children and infected 15 more people across Turkey since the start of the year.

Local health officials said she was the first H5N1 patient in Turkey to have completely recovered from avian influenza.

"She has completely recovered. This is a success for us. She is the first patient with a positive test to be discharged," Dr. Ahmed Faik Oner, who heads the children's ward at Van hospital, told Reuters.

Back at her home, Sumeyye's brother Sadun thanked the local doctor who sent his little sister to hospital in the first place and saved her life.

"Relatives and friends have been coming to visit and Sumeya has been playing with them," said 29-year-old Sadun Mamuk. The 14-strong Kurdish family live in a cramped four-roomed, one-storey house with no running water and little heating for the cold winter -- like many others in this poor region.

The family's woes started over the New Year when many of their 30 chickens began to fall ill and die. Ignorant of the dangers, they dumped a dozen of them in a nearby stream. Officials have since taken them away to be destroyed.

HUGGING A CHICKEN

Sumeyye was then laid low with fever after hugging a sick chicken. Dozens of other children were also brought to hospital in Van after being in contact with ill chickens.

The family was unaware of the dangers of bird flu and had little choice but to live in close proximity with the chickens because of their poverty. The loss of the chickens has made life that much harder, even though local authorities have promised financial compensation.

Health officials have launched a nationwide campaign of information to ensure people are aware of the dangers of bird flu and call on people, particularly children, to stay away from sick chickens.

Most of the human bird flu cases have occurred in very poor areas of Turkey.

Fourteen other people still in hospital are being treated for H5N1, although the World Health Organization said none of them were in a life-threatening condition.

Oner said Sumeyye had been treated with the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, but added: "I can't say what impact Tamiflu had on her."

She will return for a checkup next Thursday, but she is relieved her ordeal is over.

"Hospital was horrible. I was really bored," Sumeyye said, taking out Tamiflu tablets from her pocket to show a reporter. She showed off her school report and said she was looking forward to going back to school.

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>France extends poultry confinement over bird flu</font>

Fri Jan 13, 2006 11:17 AM GMT
<A href="http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=globalNews&&storyID=2006-01-13T111716Z_01_KNE340601_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-FRANCE.xml">today.reuters.co.uk</a><?center>
PARIS (Reuters) - France extended its bird flu confinement measures on Friday, ordering poultry to be kept inside in 32 more departments, raising the total to 58 of the 96 in mainland France, the prime minister said.

Dominique de Villepin, speaking after talks with other ministers, also said France would hold another bird flu readiness exercise in March. It would be on a larger scale than previous exercises.</b>

France has said the measures were necessary to protect its domestic poultry flocks from infection of the H5N1 virus by migratory birds. The original measures ran until the end of May.

There is also a ban on feeding poultry outside across the whole of the country.

Turkey is struggling to contain an outbreak of the disease. It has infected 18 people in total, killing three children. All had close contact with sick chickens.

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<b><font size=+1 color=green><center>Indonesia demands $700 mln to counter bird flu </font>

<A href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-01/13/content_4049203.htm">www.chinaview.cn
2006-01-13 19:08:57 </a></center>
JAKARTA, Jan. 13 (Xinhuanet) -- Indonesia demands seven trillion rupiah (some 700 million U.S. dollars) to stop the spread of bird flu outbreak in the country, Indonesia Health Minister Siti Sufari Fadillah said here Friday. </b>

The Minister told a press conference that Indonesia would like to get the money during the Donor Summit to be held in Beijing, China from January 16 to 17 to raise fund for combating bird flu.

"We want a grant of seven trillion rupiah in form of grant. It was a maximal fund needed when the outbreak turned to pandemic," she said.

Doctor David Nabarro, the World Health Organization in charge of coordinating the United Nations' response to avian flu said that the bird flu outbreak may turn into pandemic, and that could kill millions of people as the virus in the world now being out of control.

Over 40 million out of two billion population were killed during 1918 to 1919 when the bird flu outbreak turned to pandemic, Nabarro said, adding that Over 70 people have been killed by the virus in Asia, and now the virus are spreading to Europe and Russia. Enditem

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Avian flu pandemic preparedness discussed at EU level</font>

by Chris Galea, di-ve news
January 13 2006
<A href="http://www.di-ve.com/dive/portal/portal.jhtml?id=215175&&pid=1">www.di-ve.com</a></center>
LUXEMBOURG/ Malta (di-ve news) -- January 13, 2006 -- 1200CET -- The national pandemic preparedness with regards avian flu was discussed at a meeting between the senior communicable disease authorities of the European Member States at a meeting hosted by the European Commission in Luxembourg on Thursday. </b>

The meeting involved the Health Security Committee, the influenza coordinators of the EU Member States and the representatives of the Member States on the Early Warning and Response System.

While expressing their concern about the continuing outbreaks caused by the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza in poultry and humans in Turkey, the participants of the meeting acknowledged the efforts of the Turkish Government to contain the outbreak and prevent transmission of the virus to humans.

The Turkish authorities were also commended for their transparent risk communication policy and collaboration with the other competent authorities and third countries, although surveillance and control activities and the enhancement of information exchange on avian flu between these countries was nevertheless recommended.

The participants of the meeting also noted that the cases discovered in Turkey to date have all been linked to exposure to infected birds, and as yet no case of human to human transmission has been documented. They also noted that the World Health Organisation (WHO) has maintained the classification of the disease as it was prior to the events in Turkey, indicating that the disease is primarily an avian one and only rarely infects people.

Any increase in the risks associated with the pandemic is expected to be recognised rapidly and, in such an eventuality, the measures foreseen by national and EU influenza preparedness and response plans will come into effect.

These involve appropriate actions at various phases, including medical and non-medical counter-measures and close coordination between the authorities of the Member States, the European Commission, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the WHO.

Plans and coordination have been the object of an exercise late last year and have led to better understanding of the evolution and dynamics of a major influenza emergency.

Measures aimed at preventing the spreading of avian flu and for the mitigation of the consequences of possible outbreaks have already been put in place by the EU. Such measures include bans on the import of poultry and poultry products from affected countries and certain of their neighbours, a ban on the imports into the EU of animal products for personal consumption, and intensive surveillance of poultry and wild birds in the EU.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center><i><u>'Mutation under way' in bird flu bug</font></i></u>

08:34am 13th January 2006
The H5N1 strain of bird flu is mutating towards a form which spreads to humans more easily, British scientists have said.
<A href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=373963&&in_page_id=1770">www.dailymail.co.uk</a></center>
Medical Research Council experts based at Mill Hill in north London announced last night that they had completed their analysis of viruses taken from two fatal cases of bird flu in Turkey. </b>

The research revealed mutations from one case which have previously been seen in flu viruses from Hong Kong in 2003 and Vietnam in 2005.

Sir John Skehel, director of the MRC's National Institute for Medical Research, and the World Health Organisation said in a joint statement last night: "Research has indicated that the Hong Kong 2003 viruses preferred to bind to human cell receptors more than to avian (bird) receptors, and it is expected that the Turkish virus will also have this characteristic."

The statement said the viruses were "very closely related" to current H5N1 viruses in Turkey, and also viruses isolated at Qinghai Lake in western China last year.

Fears over migratory birds

Qinghai Lake is a congregation point for migratory birds, raising fears that it may be a staging post for the spread of H5N1.

The gene sequences of the viruses indicated that they were sensitive to the anti-viral drugs Tamiflu and amantadine, said the scientists.

Experts' biggest fear is that H5N1 will change into a form that can spread easily from person to person.

If that happened it could trigger a global pandemic with the loss of many millions of lives.

Earlier, a British vet said measures should now be taken to keep domestic birds away from lakes and waterways where they could come into contact with wild carriers of avian flu.

Dr Bob McCracken, a former president of the British Veterinary Association, said the bird flu danger would be greatest during the migratory season for wild ducks.

He told the BBC: "The most likely place that wild infected ducks are likely to land in the UK is in lakeways and waterways."

Unlike poultry, ducks can carry the virus without showing any outward symptoms.

In Turkey, a total of 18 people are said to have been infected with bird flu, including three children who have died.

The H5N1 virus has now infected 150 people and killed at least 78 in six countries.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>East Jakarta woman dies of bird flu </font>

Abdul Khalik, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
<A href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailcity.asp?fileid=20060113.G03&irec=2">www.thejakaratpost.com</a></center>
A 29-year-old resident of Cipayung, East Jakarta, who tested positive for bird flu, died on Wednesday night at Sulianto Saroso Hospital.

The woman tested positive for bird flu in tests administered by the health ministry's laboratory, said Ilham Patu, the spokesman and head of bird flu surveillance at the hospital. </b>

"She was in an acute condition when she was admitted on Monday ... she had bird flu symptoms. Her condition continued to deteriorate and at 10 p.m. on Wednesday, she died," Ilham told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.

He said the woman, who was brought to the hospital from Harapan Bunda Hospital in East Jakarta, had acute pneumonia and a high temperature.

Ilham said the woman had a history of contact with sick chickens prior to her illness.

"Her family said a number of chickens belonging to her neighbors had died suddenly before she fell ill. So, she must have contracted the virus from the sick birds," Ilham said.

The family of the woman collected her body early on Thursday for burial.

Ilham said the government sent samples of the woman's blood to the World Health Organization-accredited laboratory in Hong Kong to confirm her status.

The government is also awaiting test results from the Hong Kong laboratory on samples taken from a 39-year-old man who died last week after testing positive for bird flu in local tests, he said.

If the two cases are confirmed, the country's human toll from the disease would climb to 13. So far, a total of 19 bird flu cases have been found in Indonesia, with six of the patients recovering.

Meanwhile, Jakarta Animal Husbandry, Fisheries and Maritime Affairs Agency official Adnan Ahmad said his office would check chickens and other birds in the woman's neighborhood for avian influenza.

"If necessary, we will cull all chickens and birds in the neighborhood. We will ask residents to give up their birds voluntarily because we still cannot afford to given them compensation," he told the Post.

According to city administration data, East Jakarta has the highest number of infected chickens and birds compared to other municipalities, with hundreds of infected birds and chickens in at least eight subdistricts in East Jakarta having been found.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>WHO: Bird flu could be passing between people</font>

William J Kole | Ankara, Turkey
13 January 2006 04:05
<A href="http://www.mg.co.za/articlepage.aspx?area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__international_news&articleid=261307">www.mg.co.za</a></center>
The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu could be passing from person to person in Turkey even though health experts have no evidence that the virus is spreading that way, a senior World Health Organisation (WHO) expert said on Thursday.

Guenael Rodier, the WHO's head of communicable diseases and response, said experts cannot rule out person-to-person infection because "we haven't documented each and every case properly".</b>

"When you have a mother and a child, and both get sick, you don't know if they both were exposed to the chickens or if the mother got sick because she was caring for the child," Rodier said. "It leaves room for some question marks. We have not documented every transmission story."

But he said that even if human-to-human contact is established, it could end up being contained within families and not necessarily trigger the pandemic that experts fear could kill millions.

Preliminary tests have confirmed H5N1 in 18 Turks, including three children who died last week.

"The virus could spread like Sars [severe acute respiratory syndrome] and still be contained," Rodier said, referring to outbreaks of Sars in 2002 and 2003.

Experts have said that all the cases appear to have involved people who touched or played with infected birds, and there is no hard evidence pointing to direct infection between people.

"At the moment, there is absolutely no element that makes me think this is the case," Rodier said.

Gene change
The WHO said on Thursday that an analysis of H5N1 samples from two Turkish victims has detected a change in one gene in one of two samples tested, but that it is too early to tell whether the mutation is significant.

The mutation, which allows the virus to bind to a human cell more easily than to a bird cell, is a shift in the direction of the virus being able to infect people more easily than it does now, the agency said. However, that does not mean the mutation has taken root, it cautioned.

"The lab people are not so alarmed," Rodier said on Friday, adding that further analysis is needed to determine how the virus might be evolving. "If there are implications, we will see them."

"It could mean a lot of things. Finding something in the [genetic] sequence is not necessarily linked to something in the field," he added.

The United Nations health agency has said it is not alarmed by the finding in a single virus sample because this exact genetic change has been seen before, in samples from southern China in 2003, and it had no impact on the course of the disease, the behaviour of the virus or the pattern of human infections.

Small shift
An official from the UN Food and Agriculture Agency said on Friday that the Turkish mutation occurred in one of the children who died a week ago in the first H5N1 fatalities documented outside East Asia.

The shift in the gene is very small and there is no cause for concern, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to reporters. The virus in Turkey displayed a 99,5% similarity to the strain that surfaced in birds in China's northwestern Qinghai province, and a 99,2% similarity to the flu detected in Russia's Novosibirsk region in Siberia, he said.

Rodier said the WHO has asked Turkey's health ministry for permission to conduct more intensive screening in villages in the areas where outbreaks have occurred, and that the proposal includes plans for blood tests, throat swabs and interviews with families.

Patients seem to be responding well to the antiviral drug Tamiflu, he said.

Some experts have expressed concern that H5N1 could become entrenched in Turkey, and that a permanent presence of the strain on the rim of Europe would pose a serious threat to the rest of the continent as well as to Africa, since the country lies on a major migratory route for wild birds.

Rodier said he could not say whether H5N1 would become endemic to Turkey, but he conceded: "We are expecting this constant threat for months to come." -- Sapa-AP

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Gene tests show bird flu virus is evolving</font>

Thu Jan 12, 2006 3:37 PM ET
<A href="http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=healthNews&storyID=uri:2006-01-12T203721Z_01_EIC263719_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-MUTATION.xml&pageNumber=1&summit=">today.reuters.com</a></center>
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Genetic tests of samples taken from Turkish victims of the bird flu virus show it has made a small change but probably not enough to make it more dangerous yet, researchers said on Thursday.

The mutation is one that would be expected in a highly changeable virus, the experts said, and is one that would be predicted to eventually allow it to cause a pandemic.</b>

H5N1 avian influenza has caused a burst of human infections in Turkey and has been found in flocks of poultry across the country. It has killed three children in Turkey and infected a total of 18 people, according to Turkish authorities.

Globally it has infected just 147 people and killed 78 of them, according to the tally from the World Health Organization, which only includes four of the Turkish cases.

Scientists are carefully watching the virus to see if it makes the changes needed to allow it to pass easily from human to human, which could spark a pandemic that could kill millions. Samples from two of the first Turkish victims were sent to a WHO-affiliated laboratory in Britain for analysis.

There were two different strains of virus in the bodies of the teenage victims, said Dr. Ruben Donis, team leader of the molecular genetics team of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Influenza branch.

"One was a regular virus like we have seen in poultry in Turkey before -- no surprises there," Donis said in a telephone interview.

But half the viruses had a mutation in a protein called hemagglutinin, which influenza viruses use to attach to the cells they infect.

EXPANDING ITS RANGE

This mutation has been found in the past to allow the virus to infect a greater range of cells via a structure known as sialic acid, Donis said.

When researchers have tested flu viruses in the lab, they found this particular mutation gave the virus a better ability to attach to human-like cells.

"It is unclear whether the mutation occurred in the person or whether it occurred in the chicken," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

"This same mutation was identified in 2003 in Hong Kong and yet did not take off in a way that led to greater transmissibility either from chicken to human or human to human," Fauci said in a telephone interview.

Dr. Guenael Rodier, head of the World Health Organization mission to Turkey, said there was no evidence the virus had changed either its infection rate or its pathogenicity.

"In local terms (in Turkey) it is not too worrying," Rodier said in an interview. "We are not expecting an explosion."

But Rodier and Fauci said it will be important to study the virus carefully and note how and when it changes.

This week researchers at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California, said they had developed a quick test, called a glycan array, that could alert scientists to when the virus changes.

"For the first time in human history we have the chance and the tools to watch the virus spreading. In previous pandemics we had to start with the pandemic," Rodier said.

The H5N1 virus remains largely a virus that affects birds. But all influenza viruses mutate and evolve very easily, and regularly change into what are known as pandemic strains, which spread rapidly around the world, infecting and killing unusually large numbers of people.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Turkey bird flu strain may 'prefer humans'</font>

Staff and agencies
Thursday January 12, 2006
<A href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,14207,1685273,00.html?gusrc=rss">www.guardian.co.uk</a></center>
British scientists said tonight there was possible evidence that the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu in Turkey was of a kind with a small mutation that preferred to attach itself to humans, rather than birds.
The indications of a possible mutation in the disease were found in analysis of viruses taken from two of the fatal human cases of bird flu in Turkey.</b>

The same small signs of a preference for attaching to human cells were found in previous cases of bird flu viruses in Hong Kong in 2003 and Vietnam in 2005.

In the cases in Hong Kong and Vietnam, the strain of bird flu seemed to prefer to attach itself to cell receptors on the surface of human cells rather than to birds' cell receptors. Tonight, British experts said they expected that the bird flu from the outbreak in Turkey would show the same qualities.
Scientists are not entirely sure what the signs of the mutation may mean.

Experts' biggest fear is that H5N1 will change into a form that can spread easily from person to person. If that happened it could trigger a global pandemic with the loss of many millions of lives.

The announcement made tonight by experts at the Medical Research Council (MRC) based at Mill Hill in north London is not, however, believed at this stage to be dramatic new evidence of a growing threat of a human pandemic.

Sir John Skehel, director of the MRC's National Institute for Medical Research, and the World Health Organisation said in a joint statement tonight: "Research has indicated that the Hong Kong 2003 viruses preferred to bind to human cell receptors more than to avian (bird) receptors and it is expected that the Turkish virus will also have this characteristic."

The statement said the viruses were "very closely related" to current H5N1 viruses in Turkey, and also viruses isolated at Qinghai Lake in western China last year.

Qinghai Lake is a congregation point for migratory birds, raising fears that it may be a staging post for the spread of H5N1.

The gene sequences of the viruses indicated that they were sensitive to the antiviral drugs Tamiflu and amantadine, said the scientists.

Earlier today, a British vet said measures should now be taken to keep domestic birds away from lakes and waterways where they could come into contact with wild carriers of avian flu.

Dr Bob McCracken, a former president of the British Veterinary Association, said the bird flu danger would be greatest during the migratory season for wild ducks.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The most likely place that wild infected ducks are likely to land in the UK is in lakeways and waterways."

Unlike poultry, ducks can carry the virus without showing any outward symptoms.

In Turkey, a total of 18 people are said to have been infected with bird flu, including three children who died. The H5N1 virus has now infected 150 people and killed at least 78 in six countries.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>More Turkey bird flu as fears grow</font>

Friday, January 13, 2006; Posted: 5:20 a.m. EST (10:20 GMT)
<A href="http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/01/12/birdflu.wrap/index.html">www.cnn.com</a></center>
(CNN) -- The Turkish Health Ministry has said laboratory tests have detected two more patients infected with the H5 subtype of bird flu, bringing the total to stricken to 18, three of them fatally.

The newly discovered patients live in Sanliurfa Province, near the border with Syria, and Siirt Province, adjacent to Van in the eastern part of the country.</b>

So far, human cases have been reported in nine of the country's 81 provinces.

The newly diagnosed patients were 4 and 6 years old, and both had direct contact with diseased birds, the World Health Organization (WHO) said.

Officials have confirmed poultry outbreaks in 11 provinces and are investigating possible outbreaks in another 14 provinces.

Tests completed Thursday detected the H5 virus subtype in specimens taken from a 12-year-old girl, from Agri Province, who died on January 7. Two of the girl's siblings had previously died of the infection.

The cases have given researchers an opportunity to assess the impact of antiviral drugs, which have been given to people with symptoms.

Studies on the genetic sequence of the viruses from tissue samples taken from the first two fatal human cases in Turkey indicated they were "very similar" to H5N1 viruses found in birds in Turkey and China, the organization said.

The analyses showed the Turkish viruses to be sensitive to both major classes of antiviral drugs, including oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and amantadine, though oseltamivir remained the drug of choice, the statement added.

A virus from one patient showed mutations at the receptor-binding site -- mutations seen before in virus isolated in a 2005 outbreak in Vietnam and a 2003 outbreak in Hong Kong, the statement said.

The significance of the finding was not clear.

WHO described as "negligible" the risk of infection for travelers to Turkey who avoid contact with dead or diseased birds.

WHO earlier warned at a bird flu conference in Tokyo, Japan, that the threat of a pandemic was growing daily.

Shigeru Omi, the WHO's regional director for the Western Pacific, said the main threat to global health remained in Asia but a pandemic could be avoided if countries and health bodies acted fast.

"As the new cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus in Turkey show, the situation is worsening with each passing month and the threat of an influenza pandemic is continuing to grow every day," he told the two-day meeting of Asian countries and international organizations in Tokyo.

Experts say the deadly H5N1 virus poses the biggest threat in the colder months in affected regions, and could also spread in east Asia as people slaughtered chickens for Lunar New Year celebrations.

The more it becomes entrenched in poultry flocks, the greater the risk that more humans will become infected. So far, the virus is reported to have infected about 150 people, killing at least 78 in six countries.

Avian flu has spread rapidly across Asia and into eastern Europe. World health officials fear the disease may spread through migratory birds flocking to the region or from the transport of domestic birds.

Most cases have been spread from bird-to-human contact, not human-to-human, although there are a few cases in which the virus is believed to have spread from human to human.

Health officials have said they fear the virus could eventually mutate and spread rapidly from human to human, causing a worldwide pandemic.

A 29-year-old Indonesian woman also died from what is believed to be bird flu, a doctor at Sulianti Saroso Hospital told CNN on Thursday. If confirmed she would be the country's 12th fatality from the disease. (Full story)

On Wednesday, health authorities confirmed two new bird flu deaths in China, bringing that country's official total to five.

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<B><center>Feds Warn States To Prepare For Bird Flu

<font size=+1 color=brown>Government Begins Distributing Emergency Funding Package</font>

POSTED: 8:44 am CST January 13, 2006
UPDATED: 9:17 am CST January 13, 2006
<A href="http://www.ketv.com/news/6055097/detail.html">www.ketv.com</a></center>
WASHINGTON -- While there are new signs bird flu is spreading overseas, money is on the way to help states prepare for a possible flu pandemic if it hits here at home. The government is handing out the first installment of a $350 million emergency funding package.</b>

The Feds are going state to state to get communities ready because this is already a deadly problem overseas. In Turkey, the number of people infected with the deadly bird flu climbed to 18. Three children have already died. That's why Turkish officials are plucking birds from homes and destroying them.

Bird flu hasn't hit here at home, and federal officials aren't waiting for it to happen. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt announced plans Thursday to distribute $100 million to states and local communities.

"There is no reason to panic right now, but there is good reason to prepare. Bird flu is on the move," Leavitt said.

Health officials fear a pandemic could develop if bird flu mutates into a form that is easily transmitted from person to person, and that's why Leavitt is on the move. Over the next few months, he's going to go state to state to talk to emergency workers.

"The ability of the federal government to throw a life line to any community is going to be so limited, and if people have the misconception that somehow the federal government will be able to do that they're tragically wrong," Leavitt said.

In Vermont, Leavitt told community leaders Thursday that the consequence for not being ready is so cataclysmic that it could change the history of our country. The government even set up a website at PandemicFlu.gov. It has information that can be used to plan and respond.

The government says the rest of the emergency funding package will be distributed later this year, and each state will get a minimum of $500,000.

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<B><font size=+0 color=brown><center>CHIEFS OPT TO BE PREPARED IN EVENT OF PANDEMIC FLU </font>
15:00 - 13 January 2006
<A href="http://www.thisiskentandeastsussex.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=142736&command=displayContent&sourceNode=143225&contentPK=13825656&folderPk=82876">www.thisiskentandeastsussex.co.uk</a></center>
Village chiefs in Mayfield have opted to be prepared in case of an outbreak of pandemic flu by forming a special sub-committee.

Mayfield and Five Ashes parish councillors decided on Monday to talk to Age Concern and Mayfield Pre-school as the two groups of people would be most badly affected.</b>

The move came after the leaders discussed with councillor and doctor Deveda Redman what pandemic flu was, why people are so worried about it, where it comes from, how many people are likely to be affected, whether there was any treatment and what it could do as a parish to help.

Cllr Redman told councillors it was a type of influenza that occurred every few decades and spreads rapidly to affect most countries and regions around the world.

Unlike common flu that occurs every winter in the UK, pandemic flu can occur at any time of the year. The symptoms are similar but usually more severe. She also said people have little or no resistance to it as it is a new strain and is worse in the elderly and young.

Councillors decided they could help by understanding the problem, acting as good samaritans, liaising with the county and district councils and developing a contingency plan.

Head of food and health and safety at Wealden District Council Peter Griggs said: "The parish council is quite right to be considering the implications of pandemic flu.

"The government's UK Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan encourages all local authorities and businesses to consider the likely effects of a pandemic on their organisation and the services they provide."

There have been three pandemics in the last century and it can occur in any season. If it did happen it may affect 25 per cent of the population and there is no vaccine available in the early stages but anti viral capsules are being produced.

Cllr Redman said the World Health Organisation believed it would come from the Far East and it would arise from the mixing of a human flu virus with a bird or animal virus.

She said as yet there was no proof that the bird flu could mutate to give a virus that would affect humans and the speed of spread would relate to the rate of travel from different parts of the world.

Anyone over the age of 65 is recommended to have a normal flu jab.

My My Mr. Flying Dutchman, ain't things getting interesting.

Gee, so the flu virus is mutating, just like we said it would. So, the flu virus is becoming easier to get by humans, adapting to us, just like we said it would. The global pandemic is a PROCESS, not an event. The Black Death lasted from 1348 to 1352 in its most dangerous phase and another generation after that in scattered outbreaks.

WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT IS A GLOBAL PANDEMIC SPANNING SEVERAL YEARS! We are now in the first year or so of it. As the virus mutates and spreads around it will have more impact.

In particular, I am keeping an eye on Indonesia where people seem to be dying one at a time. This is how it begins.

Between Iran and the Bird Flu 2006 is shaping up to be a decisive year IMHO.

the bird flu will alter modern life, just as the Black Death did. It will change the way we THINK about the institutions and people running this planet.

Isn't is just fascinating how it just exploded in Turkey, mutated, right after TPTB told us all was well and it was an Asian "thing".
Just how do you prepare for the collapse of a social order? We should start thinking about things more long term.

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<center></center>


Doomer Doug;

Sir....... Are you being condesending with me; the inclusion of "two whys" perturbs my sence of equitte? I have read - then re-read your post just above, and it still leaves a somewhat 'fishy' taste in my mouth.

<center> </center>

FWIW - I only post hard news. News on events (be it the Middle East, H5N1, or what ever is of importance IMHO).

And it does require an amazing amount of time for me to do it.

Dutch, I don't hear anything disrespectful of you in Doug's post. He seems to be more addressing "them" - those who act as if it's no big deal - not you personally.

bumpity-bump...

...important news like this needs to stay on the first page!

Thanks, Dutch!

Mr. Dutchman I am NOT being disrespectful to you. It is just my deranged sense of humor, for which I am taking medications. Your posts are priceless and I regard you as a watchman on the wall so to speak.
I am just annoyed at all the official deceit in regards to the Bird flu. People are going to die because of the lies and that angers me greatly.

Take care amigo and keep up the great work!

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<center>

Don't sweat it DD... I have been 'out of sorts' lately
with all this doomer, then doomer-er news. It
tends to get to you after months of it of following it.



It's about time to retire this thread to the infectious
disease froum. And began the one for the 15th....</center>