12/27 | H5N1= What *Not* to Expect from Feds During a Pandemic

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>C. Ford Runge: What not to expect from feds in pandemic</font>

December 23 2005
<A href="http://www.startribune.com/stories/562/5799798.html">startribune.com</a></center>
The federal role will be strictly laissez-faire if the bird flu hits. But don't say Uncle Sam didn't warn you, Minnesota.

Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt came all the way to Minnesota on Dec. 14 to talk about the federal plans for a bird flu pandemic in what was billed as the first "joint summit" at the state level. </b>

Obviously aware that such a pandemic will make Katrina look like a summer squall, and mindful that the Bush administration blew that one big-time, they came to say in advance what they could and would do: next to nothing.

This is a new variation of the Bush doctrine of preemption: "We will not help you, your government has cut you loose, and don't say we didn't tell you because we just did."

Whatever its virtue as preemptive denial, it's not exactly a plan. An estimated 1.5 million people in Minnesota are expected to get sick, and 30,000 will die, or about 30 times more than died during Katrina. And that's just in Minnesota. Yet apart from stockpiling antiviral drugs (of uncertain effectiveness) and trying to figure out whether a vaccine can be produced (which will take two or three years), the federal role is strictly laissez-faire.

Leavitt's basic message, evoking FEMA's attempts to blame Louisiana state officials for the Katrina disaster, was: You're on your own. And if things go bad, then, as Leavitt intoned, "any state that fails to prepare ... will be tragically wrong."

Unlike Louisiana's feisty governor, Kathleen Blanco, who has called the federal government to account for its brazen insensitivity and incompetence in disaster relief, Tim Pawlenty seemed to take this advice cheerfully, noting that the feds "are not going to be able to solve this problem for us."

Granted. But to accept a federal hands-off approach with equanimity seems passive at best.

Economic estimates of damages from a flu pandemic are scarce and unreliable. The Centers for Disease Control estimates U.S. economic losses at $380 billion; the Congressional Budget Office at from $165 billion to $550 billion. State Economist Tom Stinson, Federal Reserve Economist Art Rolnick and I think it would be worse -- in excess of $1 trillion.

Given that supply lines are likely to be chaotically interrupted and have no respect for state boundaries, the federal government's position as expressed by Leavitt is both unrealistic and irresponsible.

As a stunning example of what lies in store, a director at Hennepin County Medical Center noted that enough latex gloves to protect 88 health care workers for eight weeks would take 16,000 boxes at one health care facility alone.

By the time this thing is over, there will be more to worry about than latex gloves, such as disposing of 30,000 corpses.


C. Ford Runge is a professor of applied economics and law at the University of Minnesota.
 
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<B><center>Tuesday, December 27, 2005. 8:42am (AEDT)
<A href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200512/s1538236.htm">ABC News Online</a>
<font size=+1 color=brown>Bird flu scare frightens visitors</font></center>

A weekend bird flu scare at Wentworth, in southern New South Wales, has deterred some tourists from visiting the town.</b>

A property on the Victorian border became the first to be quarantined in Australia after a chicken's death raised concerns there could be avian influenza in a backyard poultry flock.

Veterinarians cleared the flock on Saturday, saying the sick chicken that sparked the scare had died from the common Marek's disease.

Wentworth Shire Mayor Marg Thompson says the scare has led to some cancellations at the caravan park but that tourists should feel welcome to return to the town.

She says she is pleased the matter was resolved so quickly.

"I am pleased about that - probably any shire would rather not have any negative publicity but it only took a day to sort out so we're very happy about that," Ms Thompson said.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Bubbles, Budget, Bird Flu Lead a Long Worry List: </font>

Chet Currier
<A href="http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_currier&sid=a2UTyE0um1E8">Bloomberg.com</a></center>
Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- You want reasons to worry about the economy and the financial markets in 2006? I'll give you half a dozen. </b>

Bubbles in various real estate markets around the world, some of which may be popping at this very moment. Jumpy energy markets, accompanied by a chorus of voices asking, ``Are we running out of oil?''

Strains on the budget of the U.S. government, and on the balance sheets of U.S. households, both bedeviled by what looks like chronic spending beyond their means. The threat of an avian flu pandemic, heightened by recent word from a United Nations official that the world is ``losing the battle'' against the virus in poultry.

A tottering pension system, simultaneously suffering from symptoms of not enough savings and too much. China.

``At present, the biggest risks are the economic meltdown scenarios, the most dangerous of which could include a period of extended and substantial deflation,'' says the No-Load Fund Analyst newsletter in its December issue. ``We view this risk as real but remote enough so that we are not aggressively hedging against it.''

So goes life for the 21st-century investor, dwelling always on the edge of disaster. Risks come in bigger-than-life dimensions. To steal a line from the television comedy ``Seinfeld,'' they're real and they're spectacular.

Middle Ground

The question for mutual-fund investors is not whether these hazards exist, but what to do about them. Denying their existence isn't an appealing option. Neither, at the other extreme, is letting them frighten you into paralyzed indecision.

The mission, then, is to muddle through somehow in the middle. Fortunately, there are strategies available to help us travel this perilous path.

First among these is diversification. Heard for the millionth time in investment discussions, the word can sound like an airy abstraction. So let's talk specifics.

No matter what calamities do or don't befall us, stock and bond prices and interest rates can do only three things -- rise, fall or stay about the same.

In Balance

Using mutual funds and/or their up-and-coming competition, exchange-traded funds, investors can set up an asset-allocation plan intended to take all these possibilities into account. Funds afford a crucial measure of diversification by investing across a range of individual securities.

Optimists can go heavy on stock funds -- maybe even on aggressive growth-stock funds. Pessimists can go heavy on bonds or money markets. If that's not cautious enough for you, there are other options such as gold. Twenty-one precious-metals mutual fund tracked by Bloomberg have treated their faithful to an average annual gain of 30 percent over the past five years.

On the negative side, gold isn't exactly cheap, having almost doubled since 2001. If bad things fail to happen, sooner or later this safe-haven investment could encounter some stormy times of its own. But hey, that's just one more risk to be managed.

Axiomatically, there is no such thing as a perfect hedge. Sometimes diversified investors must face simultaneous trouble in a variety of markets. On the other hand, pleasant surprises are possible as well.

Best of Both

Note the friendly fate that awaited investors over the past year and a half who hedged their interest-rate bets by splitting their money between bond and money-market funds. Returns on money funds surged from less than 1 percent to almost 4 percent, in some cases, as the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates.

Yet bond prices didn't fall as one might expect them to do on a rise in interest rates. Longer-term rates have held steady since mid-2004. From June 30, 2004 through Dec. 21, a representative bond fund, the Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index Fund, posted a healthy 8.3 percent annualized return, according to Bloomberg data.

No matter how well investors inform themselves, nobody can nail down all the long-term implications of a subject such as China's rise as an economic and political force. So investing in a world populated by such imponderables comes down to a matter of risk management.

There is the threat that the rise of China will lead at some point to serious problems -- fast-growing economies are always susceptible to growing pains. There is also the chance that it will keep opening up new avenues to prosperity.

Diversified investors aim to take account of both risks. They may be especially well-positioned if, as so commonly happens, what ultimately develops is a messy mixture of good and bad.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Sen. Bayh Calls Possible Flu Pandemic 'Major Security Threat'</font>

December 26 2005
<A href="http://www.abc25.com/Global/story.asp?S=4288172&nav=menu213_2">abc25.com</a></center>
MERRILLVILLE, IN - Senator Evan Bayh says a possible pandemic of influenza ranks as a national security threat behind only terrorists armed with weapons of mass destruction. </b>

The Indiana Democrat and possible 2008 presidential contender says in an interview with the Post-Tribune of Merrillville published today that he believes the world is overdue for the next global strain of deadly flu. He's been gaining attention for the concern he's expressed about avian flu and his efforts to strengthen the federal government's position against a possible pandemic.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control spokeswoman Jennifer Morcone says federal officials and scientists estimate that a midlevel flu pandemic could kill between 89-thousand and 207-thousand Americans in its first year.
 
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<center><b>Pakistan

<font size=+1 color=red>WHO warns of Avian flu epidemic</font>

<A href="http://www.pakistanlink.com/Headlines/Dec05/27/05.htm">pakistanlink.com</a></center>

KARACHI, Dec 27 : The World Health Organization has warned of a substantial risk of an Avian Influenza epidemic in near future. One of the primary concerns is that the virus could quickly spread across countries as various birds follow their migratory routes.</b>

In response countries have began planning in anticipation of an outbreak. Vaccines that can be effective against a pandemic are still not available.

Health Ministry in Pakistan has also taken some precautionary measures against the Bird Flu, including ban on imports of birds from effected countries. The virus does not survive high temperatures and ours being a hot country the threat is not much. The tradition of food being cooked at high temperatures in our country is a plus point as it keeps us safe from such viruses.

However, the steps taken by the government have been much substantial, and a lot more can be done to gain maximum protection from the deadly disease. To begin with we need to have a proper waste disposal, hygienic transportation and storage of birds to create vaccines to prevent the outbreak.

Health experts have advised to increase use of antibacterial soaps and liquids, especially for those who have any contact with birds. This helps in minimizing the chances of the germs from spreading in human body, and staying clean and safe.

The most important fact is that Bird Flu is not yet a big threat, but it can be.

The current outbreaks of highly pathogenic Avian Influenza, which began in South East Asia are the most severe on record and have spread in a large number of countries all around the world. This outbreak has resulted in death of an estimated 150 million birds, causing major economic and social consequences.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Denmark helps Viet Nam fight bird flu</font>

12/27/2005 -- 21:40(GMT+7)
<A href="http://www.vnanet.vn/newsA.asp?LANGUAGE_ID=2&CATEGORY_ID=29&NEWS_ID=180599">vnanet.vn</a></center>
Ha Noi (VNA) - The Danish Government has granted veterinary equipment worth nearly 600,000 USD to Viet Nam to help prevent bird flu. </b>

The equipment, including 480 automatic sprayers, 32,000 sets of protective clothes, 10,000 pairs of rubber boots and gloves, and 20,000 litres of disinfectant, was handed over to representatives of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development at a ceremony in Ha Noi on Dec. 27.



These devices will be transferred to 44 provinces and cities nationwide.

In addition, the Danish Government also donated 400,000 USD to the country to assist in disseminating information about the epidemic by printing 10 million leaflets, 400,000 posters and 150,000 handbooks and 50,000 pamphlets of documents related to the prevention of avian influenza and the H5N1 flu virus in humans.

This is the second time in 2005 that Denmark has donated veterinary equipment to Viet Nam’s poultry breeding sector, after its first July donation of devices worth 500,000 USD.-Enditem
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Bird flu threatens Maine egg industry </font>

Tuesday, December 27, 2005 -
<A href="http://www.bangornews.com/news/templates/?a=125888&z=500">Bangor Daily News</a></center>
WASHINGTON - When the port of Shanghai first opened to foreign shipping in 1843, American sailing ships traveling from Boston to China for silk and spices would carry back a crate of red-, black- or cinnamon-colored chickens to provide eggs or the occasional chicken dinner for the long trip home.</b>

But unlike the white or tan-colored eggs the mariners were used to, these birds laid an egg with a rich brown hue. In China, white symbolizes death or funerals.

New Englanders fell in love with brown eggs because they were fresher than the white eggs that took a long while to arrive from the Midwest. Brown eggs eventually became a dietary staple in the region, and Maine has become the No. 1 producer of brown eggs in the world. Brown eggs are now the third-largest agricultural product in the state.

Today, the country that introduced brown eggs to Maine has the potential to introduce the agent that could be responsible for their demise: a highly virulent strain of avian influenza virus known as H5N1. Avian influenza is the umbrella term for a large group of viruses that affect birds. While much attention has focused on the possibility that bird flu could endanger human lives, less has been paid to the economic consequences of an outbreak in the U.S. poultry industry.

"Sadly, we'd be looking at the end of our brown egg industry here in the state of Maine" if the bird flu hit, said Shelley Doak, director of the division of animal health and industry at the Maine Department of Agriculture, Food and Rural Resources.

In 2004, egg production in Maine generated $61.4 million in cash receipts, according to the New England field office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Nationally, it could cause "severe damage to the poultry industry," said Dr. Michael Opitz, Extension veterinarian emeritus at the University of Maine in Orono.

The value of all egg production nationwide in 2004 was $5.3 billion, according to the National Agricultural Statistical Service. Broiler chickens, turkey and egg production had a combined value in 2004 of $28.9 billion.

If the virus were found in a commercial flock, international organizations would need to be notified and U.S. poultry exports would be banned. Over the last decade, exports have represented between 10 and 15 percent of the total value of poultry and poultry products of U.S. origin, according to Agri Stats, a statistical research and analysis firm serving agribusiness companies.

"That would be killer to the poultry industry in Maine," Opitz said. But he cautioned: "We shouldn't get paranoid about it and throw a lot of money just at avian influenza. There are many other issues we have to deal with."

H5N1, or bird flu as it is commonly known, was first detected in China nine years ago in a farmed goose. Since then the virus has killed large numbers of wild birds and domestic poultry in Asia and parts of Europe. In birds, it has spread as far west as Central Europe. It may make its way to the United States in less than a year, according to Don Hoenig, Maine's state veterinarian. No cases of bird flu have been confirmed in birds or humans in the United States.

If bird flu comes to this country, it is unlikely to arrive first in Maine because the state is not traversed by any major flyways for birds, according to Opitz. Migratory waterfowl, however, could transmit the virus through secretions and feces. Many commercial farms have ponds where ducks or geese stop, Hoenig said. Domestic chickens could come into direct contact with contaminated bird droppings or farm workers carrying the virus in the form of manure on their shoes could track it into a bird house. Trucks could transmit the virus from one farm to another. "It could come in a million different ways," Doak said.

"If you've ever been around chickens, they love manure," said Dennis Avery, director of global food issues at the Hudson Institute, a nonpartisan research organization that promotes global security. "They love partially digested grain."

Brown egg farmers are highly centralized in Maine. The big commercial operations are located in proximity to one another, for the most part in Turner, Winthrop and Leeds.

Many state officials and industry leaders agree that because of commercial poultry's history with other strains of avian influenza and the strict biosecurity measures in place on commercial farms, not to mention the fact that birds are kept indoors, they have only a small risk of contracting H5N1 from migratory birds. But should it happen, bird flu "would most likely move quickly through the barns," Doak said. Highly virulent strains of avian influenza have the potential to kill 90 to 100 percent of a flock in two days, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Once in the state, bird flu could wipe out Maine's entire brown egg industry in a matter of weeks, according to Hoenig.

Even if the government paid for the lost chickens through indemnity programs, during the time farmers were out of birds, "they'd have to try to supply their market with brown eggs through some other source, and there's nobody else that produces as many brown eggs as we do," Hoenig said.

"Everything in agriculture has a ripple effect," Hoenig said. One major feed company provides feed for the birds, and it too would suffer from the effects of bird flu. Similarly, many dairy farms rely on manure from Maine's chicken farms to fertilize their fields, and their business would be affected. Then there are all the people who work indirectly with the farms, such as electricians, Hoenig said.

The commercial poultry industry is familiar with avian influenza, having battled highly pathogenic, or virulent, strains of it in Pennsylvania in 1983.

Industry and government officials say they feel confident about the security of commercial chicken farms. Since 1998, Maine has monitored the commercial poultry industry for avian influenza by testing a percentage of birds in a flock before the birds go out to slaughter, Hoenig said. The state also conducts sick-bird surveillance at the diagnostic laboratory in Orono, and it monitors brown egg breeder flocks every three months. A breeder flock produces fertilized eggs that are then hatched and go on to become the new brown egg laying hens.

David Radlo, president and CEO of Radlo Foods, an organic and commercial egg producer based in Watertown, Mass., with commercial brown egg farms in Leeds and Turner, Maine, said he is not concerned about the threat of bird flu because of the rigorous safety protocols already in place. "We are prepared as we can be and we continue to be vigilant," Radlo said. "This is our livelihood."

In the poultry industry, methods to secure henhouses from disease are known as "biosecurity." A "biosecure" farm is likely to have a fence around it to regulate comings and goings, a protocol to disinfect vehicles coming onto the farm, and a policy mandating workers wear protective clothing, such as coveralls, boots and hats. Poultry houses also are usually kept locked.

Dennis Bowden has a midsize commercial brown egg farm in Waldoboro, Maine, with 10,000 layers. He protects the hens from disease by not allowing outside visitors. Anyone who walks into the henhouse must walk through a sponge soaked with a disinfectant to sanitize shoes. Bowden said he also puts chicken wire on the eaves of the henhouse to prevent wild birds from nesting there.

But some poultry experts and industry members are concerned about the growing number of organic farmers. To be certified organic, poultry farmers must allow their fowl some degree of outdoor access, according to Barbara Haumann, senior writer at the Organic Trade Association. Being outdoors may make the animals more likely to have contact with migratory waterfowl droppings than are indoor commercial birds.

In 2003 there were 1.6 million organic layer hens in the nation, up from roughly 44,000 in 1992. There were 6.3 million broilers in 2003, up from about 17,000 in 1992, according to the economic research service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Organic poultry sales in the United States as a whole are projected to grow 33 percent each year from 2004 to 2008.

Radlo's chickens have outdoor access. The birds, however, are screened off with fences and netting so they cannot come into contact with migratory waterfowl, said William Bell, general manager for the New England Brown Egg Council. Radlo Foods is a member of the council.

"Tell me how a net is going to prevent wild bird droppings from infecting an outdoor poultry flock," the Hudson Institute's Avery said.

Previous cases of avian flu in the United States all have occurred in confinement flocks, said Jim Riddle, immediate past chair of the National Organic Standards Board, a Department of Agriculture advisory board that reviews and approves substances that can be used in organic farming. More research is needed on how susceptible outdoor birds really are to H5N1 before making any decision about how effective nets are in keeping out disease, he said.

In Maine, there are only about 20 or 30 organic poultry farmers, but there are hundreds of "backyard farmers" who raise anywhere from two to 100 chickens, often outdoors, to use for broilers, eggs or to compete in shows.

Unlike commercial poultry, backyard poultry receive no testing for disease. Interstate regulations that apply to larger commercial farmers also do not affect them, Doak said.

Backyard farms are "irresponsible," Radlo said, adding, "You're asking me where do I think the outbreak is going to occur, and I'm telling you it's in backyard flocks."

State veterinarian Hoenig has a backyard flock. "How much risk are my 11 or 12 backyard hens to get [bird flu] and spread it? Very, very minimal right now," he said. Still, Hoenig acknowledged that the H5N1 threat might rise next year when migratory waterfowl could fly into the United States down the flyways.

The Department of Agriculture has discussed implementing new testing of backyard farms, but decided it does not have the resources for it. In recent months, however, the department has escalated communications with the poultry industry about biosecurity, has had more contact with backyard farmers through Maine's Alternative Poultry Association, and has met with other state agencies involved in influenza planning. The state now monitors wild birds only for West Nile virus, but it is establishing a protocol to monitor wild birds for avian influenza.

Nationally, the United States does not import poultry products from Southeast Asia.

If H5N1 appeared in Maine, the state's instant management and emergency response teams would go into action, along with special federal animal inspection teams, Hoenig said.

The U.S. secretary of agriculture also could declare a state of emergency and allocate emergency funds.

"We'd probably have a lot of people coming in here from all across the country helping out," Hoenig said.

Opitz said that the U.S. and Maine departments of agriculture worked well together in 2002 to handle the low pathogenic avian influenza outbreak in Warren. But asked how well-prepared the nation and state would be for H5N1, he was less sure.

"I don't have a good feel for how effectively, with the available means, we really could deal with that," he said.

Areas where the state is vulnerable, Opitz said, include auctions, places to go to buy live poultry, and live bird markets, where a person can purchase poultry and have it slaughtered on-site. Live bird markets have been a cause for concern among national experts because of the many species that come together, potentially leading to the spread of disease from contaminated equipment, vehicles or people coming back from live bird markets

There are no live bird markets in Maine, but many of the state's "spent layers," or hens past their laying prime, are sent to live bird markets in other states such as New York or Boston. Hoenig said that his office has worked closely with the individuals who are involved in the markets, meeting with them and talking about reducing the risks.

Last November, President Bush issued a proposal requesting $7.1 billion in emergency funding from Congress to prepare the nation for and to protect it from pandemic influenza. Under the plan the states would receive $100 million collectively to help them revise and test their state's emergency avian influenza response plan. The money has not yet been approved by Congress.

"If they pass the president's initiative, that would be a big help," Hoenig said. "If we actually get some money, we [could] actually hire somebody to do what Shelley Doak and I have been trying to do for the past couple of years, and that is sit down and update these plans.

"You're talking about 3 million birds or more," Hoenig said. "It's a huge logistical issue."
 
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<B><center>December 27, 2005
<A href="http://www.capecodonline.com/cctimes/edits/ed27.htm">CapeCodOnline.com</a>
Out of the mist
Research advances toward an effective bird-flu vaccine.

<font size=+1 color=blue>There is some good news on the bird-flu front.</font>

First, it hasn't mutated into a form easily passed from person to person.</center>

Second, scientists at a National Institutes of Health project at Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center in Baltimore are testing an inhalable vaccine on human subjects.</b>

Piggybacking on stock FluMist doses (a common vaccine for the ordinary flu), the genetically engineered bird flu viruses in theory should go to work quicker, building antibodies against the germ. Flu-shot lines should be shorter, too, because - again, in theory - the live virus in the inhaler can be administered in one dose. One of the disturbing early findings about conventional bird flu vaccine was that people were going to need at least two shots to build up enough antibodies to protect against the exotic germ, which will be dangerous because humans have no previous exposure.

If the nasal-mist method proves safe and effective in trials over the winter, pharmaceutical makers - this NIH project is a collaboration with FluMist manufacturer MedImmune Inc. - could produce stocks of frozen vaccine to match any of the potential variants of the most dangerous virus. These could come off the shelf once an outbreak was pinpointed. That has become more important with evidence that Aisian bird flu is proving resistant to Tamiflu, a more general virus inhibitor that many countries are stockpiling.

''That is a great, great idea,'' flu expert Dr. John Treanor of the University of Rochester told the Associated Press about the NIH program.

The potential advantage lies in administering a live, though weakened form of the virus. Conventional flu ''shot'' vaccines have been killed virus. And in the first bird-flu experiments, it took massive doses before antibody production kicked in.

''In theory, a live-virus vaccine might actually work better. We don't know that because we've never tried one before,'' Treanor said.

According to the AP report, researchers hope to create at least one live-virus nasal spray for each H subtype of the H5N1 virus now decimating poultry flocks in Asia. It should cost about $16 million from NIH's $67 million annual budget for flu vaccine research.

Mankind is marvelously inventive, especially when the stakes are high. All we need is time to get the medicine chest filled. Let's hope the virus, mutating along in its random, mindless way, runs into lots of evolutionary dead ends in the next few years.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Treatment for human infection of bird flu developed</font>

By Yu Zhong (China Daily)
Updated: 2005-12-27 06:02
<A href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-12/27/content_506843.htm">Chinadaily.com</a></center>
A new treatment for human infections of bird flu claimed to be more effective than Tamiflu has been developed by Chinese scientists.

Like the drug made by Switzerland-based Roche, the new medicine is a neuraminidase inhibitor which inhibits an enzyme called neuraminidase and prevents the virus from leaving the cell and spreading to others. </b>

But its molecule structure is different from Tamiflu's.


Tamiflu is displayed in this file photo. [newsphoto] (at link)


"We have completed clinical experiments, and find it is more effective on humans than Tamiflu," said Li Song, a leading scientist of a research group of the Academy of Military Medical Sciences.

The cost is only a quarter to a third of Tamiflu that sells at 29.8 yuan (US$3.73) for each capsule in China, he told a high-profile forum on prevention and control of avian influenza yesterday.

He added the new medicine would be produced by domestic companies and stockpiled only for pandemic use against the deadly strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus.

Tamiflu is the only drug acknowledged worldwide as effective against human infections and is being stockpiled by governments for possible use in a pandemic.

On December 12, Shanghai Pharmaceutical Group (SPG) became the first in Asia to secure a licence from Roche for the production of a generic variety of Tamiflu.

The licence allows SPG to produce and sell the drug, known generically as oseltamivir, on the Chinese mainland.

Li's team is also working on an injection which can be used for emergency treatment.

"Patients in a critical condition can hardly take oral medication. Also, injections are more efficacious than oral medication like Tamiflu or the new drug," Li said.

Li said all medicines for human infections are basically best for prevention rather than treatment, because "bird flu knocks men off so quickly."


For example, Tamiflu is effective only if taken within 48 hours after contracting the virus.

The fatality rate for human infections is about half and patients usually die within a week of being infected.

Amantadine and rimantadine are also used in China against human infections.

While neither is recommended any longer by the World Health Organization as the virus has developed resistance in some countries, "they are still effective in China," said Chen Hualan, the country's top veterinarian from the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute, the only one involved in bird flu research.

In the past week, China has announced several breakthroughs in the battle against bird flu.

On Saturday, scientists at Chen's laboratory announced the development of the world's first live vaccine against bird flu and Newcastle disease, two killer infections for poultry.

Last week, clinical trials began for a human vaccine against H5N1 and Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech Co Ltd, which developed the vaccine, said the exercise may last a year.

Yin Weidong, managing director of Sinovac, said China would need 200 million doses of the vaccine.

"It is better to build up the production capacity of seasonal vaccines, so that when a pandemic occurs, companies can quickly start mass production," said Yin.

The country has reported six human infections of bird flu of which two died by yesterday and 31 major outbreaks among poultry.

The disease has cost the domestic poultry industry losses of more than 60 billion yuan (US$7.5 billion) between October and December, according to official figures.

But thanks to China's aggressive preventive measures, 30 out of 31 outbreak sites have been lifted out of epidemic isolation. By December 14, China had not reported a new case within half a month.
 
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