12/10 H5N1 | Outbreaks Continue to Spread Across Asia/2 Main threats to Humans

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Officials: Thai Boy Died Of Bird Flu</font>
POSTED: 10:48 pm EST December 9, 2005
<A href="http://www.wral.com/apworldnews/5498268/detail.html">WRAL.com</a></center>
BANGKOK, Thailand -- A 5-year-old boy became Thailand's second bird flu fatality in two months, while Vietnam announced two new outbreaks and China its fifth human case amid concern that infection rates could soar this winter.</b>

Thai health authorities said Friday that lab tests showed the boy died from the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which international experts fear could trigger a human pandemic if it mutates into a form easily passed between people.

The boy fell ill with fever, stomach pains and vomiting on Nov. 25 at his home in a district of Nakhon Nayok province district about 45 miles northeast of the capital, Bangkok, Public Health Minister Phinij Jarusombat said. He was hospitalized nine days later and died Wednesday.

Health officials believe the boy had contact with the feces of chickens belonging to an uncle living next door. But his parents failed to give doctors a "clear history of his contact with chickens," Phinij said in a statement.

Doctors had treated him as a normal pneumonia case until just hours before he died.

The cause of death was not yet confirmed by the World Health Organization.

The boy's case was Thailand's fourth reported bird flu infection since October. They were Thailand's first new human cases of the virus in a year, coinciding with fresh outbreaks in poultry in several parts of the country.

The WHO has confirmed 69 bird flu deaths and 135 infections since late 2003, when the virus began sweeping Asia. Most have been traced to contact with infected birds. But experts fear H5N1 could change and become a virulent new form of flu that could traverse the globe, killing millions.

Forty-two of the deaths have been in Vietnam the country hit worst by bird flu.

Vietnam's Agriculture Ministry on Friday reported new outbreaks in two more provinces. The outbreaks killed or forced authorities to destroy some 10,600 chickens and ducks, it said.

Bird flu outbreaks have been reported in almost one-third of Vietnam since October, and more than 3 million birds have been destroyed nationwide.

Agriculture Minister Cao Duc Phat urged people not to avoid eating poultry because of bird flu fears, which he blamed for $44 million in monthly losses to the industry.

"We need to have specific actions to help poultry farmers sell their products and limit their losses," Phat was quoted as saying in Friday's state-owned Pioneer newspaper. "Eating chickens is a way to help farmers to overcome this difficult time."

The WHO says poultry is safe to eat in areas affected by the virus so long as it is properly cooked and handled during preparation.

Meanwhile, the official Xinhua News Agency reported that a farmer in northeast China tested positive for the H5N1 virus but recovered after being hospitalized.

The 31-year-old woman, surnamed Liu, fell ill Oct. 30 in Heishan County in Liaoning province, making her the country's fifth confirmed human case, Xinhua said. She suffered a fever and pneumonia-like symptoms but responded to treatment and was discharged Nov. 29, it said.

While China has mounted an aggressive campaign to fight bird flu, repeated outbreaks have been reported in poultry flocks, increasing the potential risk to humans.

Since Oct. 19, authorities have reported 25 bird flu outbreaks in poultry around China. Tens of millions of birds have been killed or vaccinated as a precaution.

Two farmers in the eastern province of Anhui died of the disease last month, while a 9-year-old boy in central Hunan province recovered. A 10-year-old girl in southern Guangxi province was also hospitalized and has undergone emergency treatment.

Bird flu's global spread continued Friday, with officials confirming new cases in Ukraine, indicating attempts to eradicate an outbreak first detected a week ago have not worked. Officials fear migratory birds are carrying the virus from Asia to other parts of the world.

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>N. Korea picks hospital for bird flu watch: WHO official</font>

December 10 2005
<A href="http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20051210/630000000020051210112619E1.html">YONLAP NEWs</a></center>

SEOUL, Dec. 10 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has designated a hospital for treatment of possible bird flu patients as it is stepping up efforts to prevent an outbreak of the potentially deadly disease, a World Health Organization official said Saturday.</b>

The North authorities have picked a hospital in Pyongyang for possible outbreak of the bird flu, said Eigil Sorensen, the WHO's representative in the North, in an interview with Radio Free Asia. Radio Free Asia is funded by the United States for its Korean-language broadcasting.

Without specifying the name of the hospital, he said he had inspected the hospital himself, which the WHO and the North authorities are expanding.

As far as he knows, there has been no outbreak of the bird flu yet in the country, the official said.

He also said the Australian government had pledged US$195,000 to the North for the prevention of avian influenza, while Sweden also promised aid.

Meanwhile, Pyongyang has taken measures to quarantine people with high fevers in an effort to stem the outbreak of bird flu.

The North has yet to report a confirmed case of bird flu since the latest outbreak earlier this year reportedly came under control.

Analysts here believe a small-scale bird flu outbreak in the North may seriously threaten the poverty-stricken country, where poultry is an important source of meat for its 23 million people.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>More bird flu cases reported across Asia </font>

December 9 2005
<A href="http://www.mytelus.com/news/article.do?pageID=cp_agriculture_home&articleID=2114838">www.mytelus.com</a></center>

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) - A five-year-old boy became Thailand's second bird flu fatality in two months, while Vietnam announced two new outbreaks and China its fifth human case amid concern infection rates could soar this winter.
Thai health authorities said Friday lab tests showed the boy died from the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which international experts fear could trigger a human pandemic if it mutates into a form easily passed between people. </b>

The boy fell ill with fever, stomach pains and vomiting Nov. 25 at his home in a district of Nakhon Nayok province district about 70 kilometres northeast of the capital Bangkok, Public Health Minister Phinij Jarusombat said. He was in hospital nine days later and died Wednesday.

Health officials believe the boy had contact with the feces of chickens belonging to an uncle living next door. But his parents failed to give doctors a "clear history of his contact with chickens," Phinij said in a statement.

Doctors had treated him as a normal pneumonia case until just hours before he died.

The cause of death was not yet confirmed by the World Health Organization.

The boy's case was Thailand's fourth reported bird flu infection since October. They were Thailand's first new human cases of the virus in a year, coinciding with fresh outbreaks in poultry in several parts of the country.

The WHO has confirmed 69 bird flu deaths and 135 infections since late 2003, when the virus began sweeping Asia. Most have been traced to contact with infected birds. But experts fear H5N1 could change and become a virulent new form of flu that could traverse the globe, killing millions.

Forty-two of the deaths have been in Vietnam, the country hit worst by bird flu.

Vietnam's Agriculture Ministry reported new outbreaks in two more provinces Friday. The outbreaks killed or forced authorities to destroy some 10,600 chickens and ducks, it said.


Bird flu outbreaks have been reported in almost one-third of Vietnam since October and more than three million birds have been destroyed across the country.

Agriculture Minister Cao Duc Phat urged people not to avoid eating poultry because of bird flu fears, which he blamed for tens of millions of dollars worth of losses to the industry.

"We need to have specific actions to help poultry farmers sell their products and limit their losses," Phat was quoted saying in Friday's Pioneer newspaper.

"Eating chickens is a way to help farmers to overcome this difficult time."

The WHO said poultry is safe to eat in areas affected by the virus, so long as it is properly cooked and handled during preparation.

Meanwhile, China's Xinhua News Agency reported a farmer in northeastern China tested positive for the H5N1 virus but recovered after being in hospital.

The 31-year-old woman, surnamed Liu, fell ill Oct. 30 in Heishan County in Liaoning province, making her the country's fifth confirmed human case, Xinhua said. She had a fever and pneumonia-like symptoms but responded to treatment and was discharged Nov. 29, it said.

While China has mounted an aggressive campaign to fight bird flu, repeated outbreaks have been reported in poultry flocks, increasing the potential risk to humans.

Since Oct. 19, authorities have reported 25 bird flu outbreaks in poultry around China. Tens of millions of birds have been killed or vaccinated as a precaution.

Two farmers in the eastern province Anhui died of the disease last month, while a nine-year-old boy in central Hunan province recovered. A 10-year-old girl in southern Guangxi province was also in hospital and had emergency treatment.

Bird flu's global spread continued Friday, with officials confirming new cases in Ukraine, indicating attempts to eradicate an outbreak first detected a week ago have not worked. Officials fear migratory birds are carrying the virus from Asia to other parts of the world.

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Avian flu poses two main risks to health of humans</font>
By a staff reporter

10 December 2005
<A href="http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theuae/2005/December/theuae_December273.xml&section=theuae&col=">Khaleej Times</a></center>

SHARJAH — A workshop to discuss the nature of bird flu around the world was held at the University of Sharjah (UoS) yesterday.

Professor Moslih I. Moslih, from the College of Health and Medical Sciences, UoS, gave a lecture on Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) and Avian Influenza A (H5N1) virus to several medical practitioners, technicians and nurses from all over the UAE.</b>

Discussing the implications of the flu on human health, Prof Moslih said: “The widespread persistance of H5N1 in poultry populations poses two main risks for human health: first, the risk of direct infection when the virus passes from poultry to humans, resulting in very severe disease and second, the virus — if given enough opportunities — will change into a form that is highly infectious for humans and spreads easily from person to person. Such a change could mark the start of a global outbreak (a pandemic).

The workshop also discussed the people at high risk. They include: People 65 years and older; people who live in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities that house those with long-term illnesses; adults and children six months and older with chronic heart or lung conditions, including asthma.

Others who come under high risk category are adults and children six months and older who need regular medical care or were in a hospital during the previous year because if a metabolic disease (like diabetes), chronic kidney disease, or weakened immune system (including immune system problems caused by medicines or by infection with immunodeficiency virus (HIV/AIDS); children six months to 18 years who are on long-term aspirin therapy; women who will be pregnant during the influenza season, all children six to 23 months of age; people with any condition that can compromise respiratory function or the handling of respiratory secretions (that is, a condition that makes it hard to breathe or swallow, such as brain injury or disease, spinal cord injuries, seizure disorders, or other nerve or muscle disorders).

Prof Moslih also said that vaccines that were effective against the pandemic were not available.

“Vaccines are produced each year for seasonal influenza but will not protect against pandemic influenza. Although a vaccine against H5N1 virus is underdevelopment in several countries, no vaccine is ready for commercial production,” he said.

Describing the drugs that could be used in treatment of human cases of avian flu, Prof Moslih said, “Two drugs (neuraminidase inhibitors class), oseltamavir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (relenza) can reduce the severity and duration of illness caused by seasonal influenza. The drugs may improve prospects of survival if administered early.” He added that the single best way to prevent the flu is to get a flu vaccination each fall.

“There are two types of vaccines — the flu shot and the nasal spray flu vaccine,” he said. Types of influenza viruses in birds were also discussed.

Symptoms of flu in humans include:

Fever (usually high)

Headache

Extreme tiredness

Dry cough

Sore throat

Runny or stuffy nose

Muscle aches

Stomach problems, such as nausea, vomiting and diarrhoea can also occur but are more common in children than adults

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Thai PM urges public caution after latest bird flu death</font>

December 10 2005
<A href="http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/182919/1/.html">Channelnewsasia.com</a></center>

BANGKOK : Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on Saturday urged the nation to step up precautions against bird flu, two days after a five-year-old boy died of the disease. </b>

"Don't panic, but do not be careless if any relatives show symptoms of avian influenza," Thaksin said in his weekly radio address. "Infected patients need to receive treatment in time."

Doctors said the boy who died Thursday could have been saved if he had received the anti-viral drug Tamiflu within two days of showing symptoms.

The boy's death was the 14th bird flu fatality in Thailand, out of 22 confirmed cases since the H5N1 virus was first detected nearly two years ago.

Most of the deaths had been either children or elderly people with weak immune systems, Thaksin said.

He added that the Public Health Ministry had confirmed that Thailand could produce its own version of Tamiflu with a combination of Indian- and Thai-made ingredients.

Treatment with the locally produced drug would cost 70 baht (1.70 dollars), or about 40 percent less than with the imported version.

After the boy's death, health authorities killed 1,800 chickens in three villages around where the boy lived, as a precaution against the disease's spread.

Fourteen of the boy's relatives have been placed under surveillance, but Thaksin said so far none of them had shown symptoms.

More than 63 million chicken, ducks and other poultry have died from the virus or been culled in Thailand over the past two years.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Fifth Human Bird Flu Case Confirmed in China</font>

December 9 2005
<A href="http://www.13wham.com/news/national/story.aspx?content_id=5B0FF53F-31A8-4AD3-96C1-E43EEDDF316B">United Press International</a></center>

China has confirmed another human case of the bird flu, the fifth such in two months, reports the official China Daily. </b>

The latest case is a 31-year-old woman in Northeast China's Liaoning Province, the Health Ministry announced.

The woman had acute pneumonia and breathing difficulty on Oct. 30. The report said she later recovered and was discharged from hospital on Nov 29.

Experts, who had known she owned chickens that died of bird flu, had kept a watch on her. The report said all those who had close contact with her are free from the disease.

Of the other four confirmed bird flu cases, two were reported in East China's Anhui Province, and one each in Central China's Hunan Province and South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The two in Anhui have since died. The Hunan boy has recovered while the girl in Guangxi is still hospitalized.

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Family docs, the front line during a flu pandemic, feel unprepared, poll says</font>

December 9 2005
<A href="http://www.mytelus.com/news/article.do?pageID=cp_health_home&articleID=2114756">www.mytelus.com</a></center>

VANCOUVER (CP) - Canadians and the physicians who look after them expect family doctors to play a critical role in the delivery of care during an influenza pandemic, two new polls suggest. </b>
The College of Family Physicians is concerned that there are no formal plans spelling out what they will do during a pandemic or where they'll get the support they'll need.

Officials of the college, who are holding their annual meeting here, called on political parties to make public health emergency planning an election issue.

"Each party must demonstrate to the people of Canada that it has a plan to deal with a public health crisis. Canadians need to know that our political leaders will make this a priority," said Dr. Calvin Gutkin, chief executive officer of the college.

Polls of the public and of family doctors that were commissioned by the college showed the vast majority of the public felt it was critical that they could turn to their family doctors during a public health emergency like a pandemic. But only 20 per cent of the family doctors polled said they had the tools they needed to handle such a crisis.

"Family doctors are willing to go above and beyond the call of duty to help their patients," said college president Dr. Alain Pavilanis.

"However, the polling data reveal family doctors don't believe the supports are in place to enable them to do the best job on behalf of their patients."

Gutkin said the college is raising the issue because it wants to ensure family doctors aren't left adrift during a pandemic in the way family physicians in Toronto were during the SARS crisis.

During the 2003 outbreak, family doctors had little access to evolving information about the transmissibility of the disease or what protective equipment they should wear to safeguard their own health.

A number of family doctors were infected by SARS patients who showed up in their doctors' offices looking for care. The only doctor who died in the Toronto outbreak was a family physician.

"We'd better make sure that the same thing that happened in SARS doesn't happen again," Gutkin said.

"Because . . . that is where people go (for care). And the family doctors were totally left out of the planning.

"It can't just be a response for hospitals and institutions," he said of Canadian pandemic planning.

The college said more family doctors are needed to effectively fight a pandemic and called on government to address the shortage. It also wants the government to co-ordinate an emergency plan that involves them and provides timely access to information.

Dr. David Butler-Jones, Canada's first chief public health officer, said the issue is complex and that everyone should get back to the basics.

"What we do today to prepare in terms of generally having a healthier population," he told a convention hall packed with family doctors.

"Things like reinforcing basic hand washing is actually one of best ways to prevent the spread of disease."

He said spending a lot of money won't necessarily lessen the risks.

"It doesn't matter what we spend on hospitals and tertiary care. It'll never be enough, we need to get the basics right first," said Butler-Jones.

He said public health needs to work with local physician communities and hospitals.

"The planning across all those sectors is important, also planning in the private sector and business. All that should be happening at the local level, and will fit in with the plans provincially and nationally," he said.

That has to happen first, Butler-Jones said, in order for officials to figure out where resources are needed and how best to use new dollars if they become available.

"We could spend a lot of money and not really change the outcomes very much or we can spend a small amount of money and have big changes. It really depends on where we focus."

He acknowledged that many people in Canada don't have a family doctor who they see as their primary point of contact with the system.

"That's a challenge. It's not just an issue of training and funding. It's the choices we make as physicians in terms of what area we go into.

"Unfortunately not as many people go into those fields which protect the whole of the public and form a foundation for the rest of the system."

He asked doctors to maintain their focus, should an emergency hit. He said they should plan to ensure the regular checks are being made, that people are getting their medication and that other daily challenges aren't abandoned in a panic.

One thing that will give family doctors more confidence is quick access to information, said Gutkin.

The college said it can work on that by setting up hotlines and websites to keep family doctors informed.

The college can also make sure telephone lists of doctors are updated and can encourage doctors to get on line. Many don't have fax machines, let alone computers with Internet access, said college spokeswoman Dr. Louise Nasmith

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Greece urges coordination in fighting possible bird flu pandemic </font>

2005-12-10 06:22:16
<A href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-12/10/content_3901780.htm">www.chinaview.cn </a></center>

ATHENS, Dec. 10 (Xinhuanet) -- Greece said on Friday that European Union member states must coordinate their actions in the event of a bird flu pandemic.</b>

Speaking to EU health ministers' council in Brussels, Greek Health and Solidarity Minister Nikitas Kaklamanis said that the European Commission and the European Food Safety Agency can take on the role of coordinator, adding that appointing a coordinator is a must, Athens News Agency reported.

He also supported France's proposal regarding anti-viral drugs and Austria's proposal to appoint a representative who will negotiate with the pharmaceuticals industry on behalf of EU member states.

Kaklamanis recommended that a reserve of anti-viral drugs and shots be created and managed through a protocol procedure.

He said that the reserve would be available to all EU member states and their neighboring countries.

He also suggested that a solidarity fund be set up and the issue be discussed further at the next summit, citing the reason that there is no point in deciding in creating a reserve of anti-viral medicine if the endeavor is not backed financially. Enditem

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Bump - to put it on the main board</center>

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Zambia on bird flu high alert </font>

<A href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-12/10/content_3904820.htm">www.chinaview.cn</a>
2005-12-10 23:23:29 </center>

LUSAKA, Dec. 10 (Xinhuanet) -- Zambia is on high alert following reports that avian influenza was found at two ostrich farms in neighboring Zimbabwe. </b>

Ministry of Health spokesperson Victor Mukonka said here Saturday that safeguard measures have been enhanced to ensure the avian flu is prevented from spreading into Zambia.

He said personnel at border entry points, particularly those shared by Zimbabwe, have been instructed not to allow any poultry products out and into Zambia.

He said presently relevant government ministries, departments and other functionaries were working together to prevent the spread of the bird flu into Zambia and to consider measures to mitigate the presence of the flu if detected in the country.

Mukonka warned that Zambia is at great risk of encountering bird flu because migratory birds, which are agents of the flu, are expected to fly southwards into Zambia.

Zimbabwe on Thursday suspended all export of poultry products after avian influenza was found at two ostrich farms in the south of the country.

Government veterinary director Stuart Hargreaves said tests at two farms in the southern Matabeleland province had confirmed the existence of the H5N2 variant of avian flu in ostriches.

As a result, he said all ostrich farms in the country had been placed under quarantine, and exports of all poultry products suspended.

He said the disease, which has wrecked havoc in Asia and Europe, had not yet been found in chickens.

Zimbabwe set up a high-level government task force after the avian flu outbreak in Asia, to raise public awareness of the disease and to mobilize resources to tackle an outbreak in the country. Enditem

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>White House Set to Test Bird Flu Preparedness </font>

Saturday, December 10, 2005
<A href="http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,178323,00.html">FOX News.com</a></center>

WASHINGTON — The White House plans to "push resources to the breaking point" in a test Saturday of the federal government's readiness for any flu pandemic in the United States. </b>

The four-hour tabletop exercise on bird flu preparedness is being held at the White House and will pull in Cabinet secretaries and other top government officials. President Bush, though remaining at the White House for the weekend, was not expected to participate and neither was Vice President Dick Cheney.

White House deputy press secretary Trent Duffy would not discuss the scenario being used to see how well the government's plans to respond to an outbreak work, including whether any bioterrorism component was being included beyond a natural spread of disease.

"It is part of the administration's effort to be ready and have the entire federal government ready to respond in the event of a pandemic," Duffy said. "It's a drill."

Fears of a pandemic have increased in recent months as a virus infecting millions of birds has spread throughout Asia and parts of Europe. While the virus has not yet appeared in the United States, or spread from person to person, officials worry the bird flu could eventually mutate and become as contagious globally as the annual flu.

Human-to-human transmission of the virus would be particularly deadly because humans have no immunity to the virus. So far, the virus has killed about half of the 120 people who have contracted it, all as a result of close contact with poultry.

The administration is working under the worst-case assumption that as many as 90 million Americans would become sick and 2 million would die during a worldwide flu pandemic. A moderate pandemic would kill about 209,000. A severe one, such as the one that occurred in 1918, would kill about 1.9 million people.

To prepare, the administration has been coordinating with Asian nations on methods for early identification of any outbreak, working with the vaccine manufacturing industry to look for ways to speed vaccine production, and stockpiling more Tamiflu, which can reduce the severity of the disease if taken early enough.

Some say that more comprehensive steps are needed to get ready for a possible pandemic, such as boosting the nation's public health infrastructure.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>US to hold 'bird flu' simulation</font>

December 10, 2005
<A href="http://www.terra.net.lb/wp/Articles/DesktopArticle.aspx?ArticleID=260459&ChannelId=19">TerrNet Portal</a></center>

US President George W. Bush waves to onlookers at a fundraising event in Minnesota. Senior US officials will huddle out of sight at the White House Saturday for a four-hour crisis excercise aimed at testing plans for a possible outbreak of deadly "bird flu," aides said </b>

Senior US officials will huddle out of sight at the White House Saturday for a four-hour crisis excercise aimed at testing plans for a possible outbreak of deadly "bird flu," aides said.

White House spokesman Trent Duffy declined to say whether the drill would be based on a hypothetical natural spread of the illness or a terrorist attack using the virus, the human strain of which has killed nearly 70 people across Asia since 2003.

"But it's an exercise that the government does just to prepare in the event of emergency. It's a drill," Duffy told reporters aboard Air Force One as US President George W. Bush made a political fundraising trip to Minnesota.

"I've got to underscore again that we have no evidence that a threat is imminent. But the president said that we have been given time to prepare, and we must prepare," the spokesman said.

"So we're stockpiling vaccine, we're trying to push the US manufacturing capability for a new vaccine, we're working with state and local leaders, we're working with the international community, and we're trying to educate the American people about what this very real threat is," said Duffy.

A senior administration official said Bush would not take part in the event, which was to be led by the US Department of Homeland Security, which was created in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Asked jokingly whether the excercise was purely hypothetical or whether there would be live chickens on the White House lawn, Duffy quipped: "We don't believe there will be any live poultry there."

"But I do want to underscore ... that there is no evidence of infected birds or human beings in the United States and that poultry is very safe to eat when cooked properly," said Duffy.

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<B><center>Virus hunter
<font siz=+0 color=green>Guan Yi may be the scientist most responsible for what the world has learned about bird flu in China. Beijing is not an admirer.</font>

By GEOFFREY YORK
Saturday, December 10, 2005
<A href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20051210/BIRD10/TPHealth/">TheGlobeandMail.com - Registration Required Link</a></center>

HONG KONG -- He calls them his "unnamed heroes." They are the network of virus hunters and virus collectors across China who secretly gather samples of bird-flu strains to challenge the official view of a disease that might one day sweep across the world.</b>

Guan Yi, a bold and blunt-speaking Hong Kong scientist, is the man at the heart of this intricate web of contacts. Chinese authorities are so enraged by his work that they have cut off his official links to a university in southern China, accusing him of breaching state secrets. Yet he may be more responsible than anyone else for what the world has learned about bird flu in China.

Two years ago, Dr. Guan played an instrumental role in tracking down the animal sources of the SARS virus that had killed nearly 800 people worldwide and wreaked havoc on the Asian economies.

In 1997, he helped to trace the source of a bird-flu outbreak in Hong Kong that killed six people -- the first human deaths from the H5N1 virus that has terrified much of Asia and is now heading westward through Europe and perhaps eventually to North America.

With those credentials, and with the connections shaped by his childhood in China, the 43-year-old virologist at the University of Hong Kong has broken through the wall of secrecy that surrounds the bird-flu crisis in many parts of China. His data, published in scientific journals over the past two years, have rocked the Chinese establishment.

The U.S.-educated scientist and his colleagues have collected about 100,000 virus samples from chickens and ducks at markets across China -- enough to uncover the truth about avian flu in the world's most populous country.

He gives the credit to his underground network of Chinese sources. "They are very brave people, working very hard to tell the true story," he says. "I appreciate them very much. They do an excellent job. This network is important for the whole world."

In an interview in his university office, overlooking the South China Sea, he lights another cigarette and opens the windows to let the smoke drift out. Then he gestures toward a chart of unpublished data that are still awaiting peer review. What he has found is enough similarities in the genetic sequencing to suggest that the bird-flu outbreaks in many parts of Southeast Asia are closely linked to the H5N1 strain in southern China.

For example, using geographically specific genetic markers, Dr. Guan and his researchers have concluded that the major bird-flu outbreak in Indonesia is likely to have originated in a bird-flu virus from Yunnan province in southwestern China -- despite official Chinese denials that the virus even existed in Yunnan until last month.

"We do beautiful work," he says. "It enables us to track down the virus source and the virus-transmission mechanism."

However, his work has put him on a collision course with Chinese government officials, who resent his independence from the official version of the bird-flu situation. "I grew up there, in that political environment, and I know how they handle things," he says. "It's horrible."

In an article published in Nature magazine last summer, Dr. Guan and his colleagues concluded that poultry in southern China were the likely cause of the bird-flu outbreak that had infected thousands of migratory birds in Qinghai province in western China.

Chinese authorities denied the report. Shortly afterward, they abruptly shut down all bird-flu research at a laboratory at Shantou University in southern China that was co-operating with Dr. Guan.

"They can control political power, but they cannot control science," he says. "They should face the scientific evidence and follow the advice of real scientists, not politicized scientists. The virus originates in this region [southern China], so they should take responsibility."

Dr. Guan's beliefs have been shaped by his long experience in Hong Kong, where a strict program of bird culling and closings of poultry markets have helped to prevent any outbreaks of bird flu in recent years. Last year, he urged China to shut down its live poultry markets, which are a fixture of street life in every major city in the country.

But not until this year did China finally close the markets in cities such as Beijing. "They didn't say thank you to me for telling them this," Dr. Guan says. "They still want to close my lab. They don't like me to do research. They won't even acknowledge me. They don't know how to handle the virus."

The Chinese authorities should learn from Hong Kong's handling of the disease, he says. "If they want to know, come to my office to learn. Why don't they look at Hong Kong? All the viruses here come from mainland China, but we haven't lost a single life [since 1997]."

Dr. Guan is equally outspoken about China's announced plan to fight avian flu by vaccinating every one of its 5.2 billion chickens, ducks and geese. He regards it as an impractical scheme, clearly designed for propaganda purposes. "Do you think it's feasible? This is very crazy, a very stupid idea. They cannot do it, but they like to say it, to show that they're working hard against the disease."

Like most experts, he believes that migratory birds are the most likely source of the spread of bird flu to Europe. And although the migratory birds are unlikely to bring the virus across the Atlantic Ocean to North America, it could happen. "The possibility is always there," he says.

"It's happening step by step. What's impossible today becomes possible tomorrow."

Geoffrey York is The Globe and Mail's correspondent in Beijing.

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>BMC informs residents of avian flu risks </font>

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Computed Name: Cpl. Giovanni Lobello
Story Identification #:
2005129171412
<A href="http://www.marines.mil/marinelink/mcn2000.nsf/0/10C17CE17DCFA909852570D2007A2656?opendocument">www.marines.mil/marinelink.</a> </center>

MARINE CORPS AIR STAION, Ariz.(Dec. 8, 2005) -- The Branch Medical Clinic is taking measures to raise awareness about the avian influenza virus on station.</b>

The avian flu’s first major outbreak happened late 2003 and early 2004 in eight of Asia’s countries. Lesser outbreaks have been recorded back to 1997.

“The avian flu is also called the bird flu,” said Lt. j.g. Beth Kane, BMC clinical coordinator. “The flu is naturally in the intestines of birds. The virus can be passed to humans by contacting the saliva, nasal secretion and feces of wild animals. The illness also makes domesticated animals sick and can potentially kill them.”

According to the Center for Disease Control Web site, the bird flu virus does not usually infect humans, but more than 100 confirmed cases of human infections have transpired since 1997.

The avian flu virus spreads from one person to another and transmission has not been observed to continue beyond one person, according to the Web site.

“Saliva is one of the ways the virus transfers from person to person,” said Kane. “An example of that would be sharing a cup with an infected person. This is one of the reasons why the military is worried about the virus; because service members are in such close quarters.”

Most cases of avian influenza infection in humans have resulted from contact with infected poultry -- domesticated chicken, ducks and turkeys -- or surfaces contaminated with excretions from infected birds.

There is no evidence that properly cooked poultry or eggs can be a source of infection for avian flu viruses, according to the Center for Disease Control Web site.

“I’m really not worried about people getting it from food sold in the store,” said Kane. “The (Food and Drug Administration) in the (United States) is good with inspecting meats.”

The virus has several indicators that are common if someone becomes infected by the avian flu.

Common symptoms from the virus include signs of fever, cough, sore throat, eye infections and can be potentially life threatening.

“The virus usually occurs in cycles,” said Kane. “At one time, several people will be reported infected, and then no one will be infected for a while. The only way to find out if you’re infected is with a blood test.”

There is still no vaccine available to prevent or heal those infected by the avian flu.

“The only thing available to help treat the virus is anti-viral medication,” said Kane. “The Navy has around fifty thousand doses for the (Department of Defense) available in Southeast Asia, because that is where the virus is most common. They are still making more anti-viral medication to have available just in case.”

People in the U.S. shouldn’t be too concerned that there isn’t a vaccine for the virus, said Kane.

“The virus is not common in the U.S.,” she added. “We just want people to be aware about the possibility. There is nothing to be alarmed about now, but that is no reason to ignore it completely. People should still eat healthy and do all the things to make sure they remain in good health.”

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<B><center>CNN medical expert explores bird flu

<font size=+1 color=purple>Upcoming special explores what could happen, what we should do</font>

By Sarah Lindner
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Friday, December 09, 2005 </center>

Dr. Sanjay Gupta is even more hard-working than we imagined.</b>

<i>We knew that CNN's chief medical correspondent is ubiquitous on the network, and that he's still a practicing neurosurgeon. But when he called us from California earlier this week, he was in the midst of staying up for 30 hours straight as part of a special he's doing on sleep deprivation. The goal: See how well (or badly) he pilots a flight simulator with no shut-eye.</i>


<B><center>Jean Shifrin
COX NEWS SERVICE </center>

We'll have to wait a while to see how he fares, but Gupta also went to great lengths for his current CNN special, "Killer Flu: A Breath Away." Gupta traveled to Southeast Asia to investigate the deadly bird flu and the possibility of a global pandemic. The program explains how flu viruses attack the body, explores parallels between the devastating 1918 flu pandemic and the current threat and examines how quickly an outbreak might spread in a world connected by air travel. The information can be frightening, but Gupta presents it calmly and thoughtfully, never resorting to sensationalism or panic-stirring. Even more admirably, he sounded wide awake when he talked to us about bird flu: </b>

Lessons from Katrina: "It's such a different problem, obviously — flu versus the hurricane — but in some ways there are a lot of similarities. One is that there are warnings. And two, that it has such broad implications in terms of the type of toll that it could cause . . . We learned that there were warnings about a potential problem and there were things that could have certainly been done better. And if we didn't start paying attention to the bird flu until we saw a case here in the United States, that would just be so far too late. It would essentially be like being able to do nothing at all."

How a pandemic might start: "You'll start to hear reporting from Southeast Asia about clusters — it won't just be one case in a small village; it'll be 10 cases in one community. Or it'll be every single member of a family. And what that'll mean is that the virus has made the critical change in its structure and is now able to transmit itself efficiently from human to human."
What happens next? "(Vaccine) will immediately be given to front-line people, hospitals, rescue workers, people who come in contact with anybody who's sick.

"And then the rest of the dosing will be stockpiled and available to people; for instance, if someone in their community were to get sick, then anybody who came in contact with that person would probably be getting vaccinated as well . . . I think there might be recommended isolation. So that in Austin, Texas, if there were a case, you might be told on your local news or even a phone call or something to stay home, don't be outside, stockpile some food and don't come in contact with people until we tell you. And I think that's going to be some of the most effective measures.

"There will probably be some problems. There will probably be a run on medications like Tamiflu. The federal government has predicted that there would be rioting at pharmacies, that grocery stores and more wholesale-type stores probably would not be delivering food, gasoline — we'd see shortages of those things over a period of time . . . A lot of the problems would be because of simple fear, as opposed to the likelihood of getting sick. That is, unfortunately, human nature."

So what should we be doing? "There's everybody from people who don't think that this is anything at all and the media is unnecessarily ballyhooing about it to people who are living in fear every single day that not only is it coming, but that they're going to die from bird flu."

What's a better response? Having a crisis plan will serve you well in any crisis situation, not just a flu outbreak, Gupta says. "What would you do if you suddenly had to isolate your family?" Don't worry about stockpiling drugs such as Tamiflu, but it never hurts to have some food and water stored away, Gupta says.

How he was affected by traveling to Southeast Asia for his special: "The gut instinct is to think 'It's over there. It's just a different place.' Just traveling there, being there, you realize it's just not that far away . . . Also, I met people who had bird flu. And they speak a different language, the color of their skin might be different, but they're just like us in every other way. And if it could happen to them, it could happen to us . . . It's a virus. It respects no borders."

So does he ever take a day off? "This year, I've taken three days of vacation total," Gupta says with a laugh. "It's busy. But health news is just so demanding. There's something every day. And if you look at it, every single story seems to have a health twist to it. The face transplant story — that kept us occupied for a few days. I love it, though."

bump...thanks Shakey!

Shakey,

I want to let you know how much I have appreciated your posts about the Bird Flu. I am taking it very seriously and ordered 6 rounds of Tamiflu two months ago for over $600 from Drugdelivery.ca but it never arrived. I finally found out that they had run out of what was supposed to be shipped to me. Now they are charging twice as much (about $1200) and have indicated they are going to just refund my money back from the old order. So if I still want the 6 doses, I now have to pay double.

I feel as though I have been scammed and that now I will not survive the Bird Flu. I am very depressed about this.

Anyway, thanks for passing on your much needed information.

Anne in TN said:

Shakey,

I want to let you know how much I have appreciated your posts about the Bird Flu. I am taking it very seriously and ordered 6 rounds of Tamiflu two months ago for over $600 from Drugdelivery.ca but it never arrived. I finally found out that they had run out of what was supposed to be shipped to me. Now they are charging twice as much (about $1200) and have indicated they are going to just refund my money back from the old order. So if I still want the 6 doses, I now have to pay double.

I feel as though I have been scammed and that now I will not survive the Bird Flu. I am very depressed about this.

Anyway, thanks for passing on your much needed information.

Click to expand...

Lady Anne;

Don't be a fatalist (Please). Tamiflu only helps lessen (in some cases) the effects of H5N1 - after you have fallen ill with it. It is NOT a vaccine to prevent it.

There are several ways left to you, to both protect yourself, as well as your family.

The improved masks (N-100 - and not the N-95) will help you to keep from getting it. As well as getting into the habit of washing your hands after entering your car (when you have been out in public places i.e. Supermarkets, drug stores, wally world etc). You have to kill the viruses YOU MAY HAVE PICKED UP while in those places.

Over the counter meds (Ibuprophen, the Tammeric (mentioned on another thread - and likely miss-spelled by me). The over-the-counter cold/flu meds etc.

And be aware of your surroundings; what you might have touched, which might infect you; the persons who are displaying flu-like symptoms etc.

No - No one can guaratee that they will not contract H5N1 - or any other virus. But we - and you can greatly lessen both the chance. And at least *limit* the "amount" of the infectious agent, if we are exposed to it.

The H5N1 virus is refered to as *Virons*

If one is exposed to only a few thousand Virons of H5N1, they may well be able to become immune to it - but if they absord a few millions of them. The onslaught of the infectious virons will be too massive for their body to have the chance of overcoming the invading viruses....

Lady Anne, I am not a Medical orientated person - but I read. And what I read I rememember. And I *compare* that which I have read to the things that I am reading. The memory I have (*not a blessing sometimes*) well, it allows me to retain that which I have read for years, in some cases a lifetime.

FWIW - I do not have Tamiflu either. And I am not fatalistically pessismistic. At least not in the "I'm gonna die - with out Tamiflu" manner. And, sigh. I have the added drawback of being inflicted with Asbestosis....

By maintaining a volintary Quarantine, you have elimated a MAJOR risk of exposure. And by observing the other elementray prelimanary precautions, you only further add to your safty margin.

Be sure to have enough food, TP, Lady's *special* med needs, water available etc. To last you for at least several months. Each day, week, and month, that you can keep from being *exposed* gives you that much more added safty margin.

TPTB will be racing to make a vaccine * a specfic* vaccine for the Mutation of H5N1 when goes human to human. And every day you can add to your safty margin - that is another day you'll be closer to a cure being found for it....

Shakey,

Thanks so much for writing back to me! You made me feel better...you really did!

I knew the Tamiflu is not a vaccine and that it is to be taken after symptoms occur within the first two days.

Again, thanks!

I saw the news conference at noon after the four hour pandemic exercise they had at the White House this morning. There was an urgency in their voices.


I wish we knew if this was just politics or if they know something more.


Then it seemed as if they were passing off the responsibility. They mentioned that any preparedness started with each individual, then at state and local government levels.


It doesn't really matter. We cannot rely on government. They can only do so much. We must be prepared in our homes.

bump

Anne,

There are five areas of preparation for HPAI H5N1 Influenza:


1. Social distancing - maintain an extended space to your self some say at least 1 meter away from others but that sounds too close to me.

2. Personal hygiene - Hand washing is the numer one way of protecting one self

3. Commodities - food, toiletries, chlorox, basic necessities will be in short supply

4. PPE = Personal Protective Equipment = Plenty of Gloves, masks, gowns, clean bedding. Esp if you plan to be a care giver for others.

5. Finances - Things will be very chaotic and unstable for a period of time. It will pay to have a cash reserve and the ability to pay for basics.


There is high probaility that the Pandemic could last at least 6 - 8 months or until a workable vaccine is available. This will tax everyone preps.


Shakey - Tumeric with 95% curcuminoids is said to reduce the cytokine storm that follows a HPAI attack. I see it is readily availabe in Health Food and Grocery Stores in the Supplements aisle.

Bump to the main board.

I have been thinking about the scenario for bird flu and have come to this conclusion.

The bird flu is currently raging in Indonesia during SUMMER with high temps. It is currently ragin in China and Russia and the Mid East in Winter. The flu season does not begin below the equator, Indonesia, South America and Australis until MARCH. What that means Shakey is everything that is going on in Indonesia right now is the appetizer. I find that thought truly frightening. It means the real show won't begin down there until winter starts in March.

I am beginning to think what we are going to see is a rolling pandemic. It percolates in China, vietnam, thailand et al during our winter, ie till march. In march it explodes in Indonesia and south of the equator during their winter. In our summer it again percolates along until it explodes during our winter.

My view now is, at least in the southern hemisphere we are not looking for a pandemic until our northern hemisphere spring. And in the northern hemisphere we are not going to see a pandemic but a pre pandemic that sets the stage for the virus to mutate, change and expand its global range.

What this does is make sure the maximum damage is done, the maximum mutation is allowed and the maximum amount of chaos is done. It also, in my revised view, gives us a few more months to prepare.

Comments Shakey? Do I have to give up my doomer merit badge now?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051209.wchinaflu1209/BNStory/International

China hiding bird-flu cases: expert

Beijing has the 'virus in every corner of the country,' Hong Kong virologist says
By GEOFFERY YORK

Friday, December 9, 2005 Posted at 4:58 AM EST

From Friday's Globe and Mail


Hong Kong — Despite growing pressure for openness, Chinese officials have concealed bird-flu outbreaks in several provinces for many months this year, a leading scientific expert says.
"I don't know if they are brave enough to admit that they have the virus in every corner of the country," said Guan Yi, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong who has analyzed nearly 100,000 bird-flu-virus samples from across China.

"Quite honestly, some provinces have the virus and they still haven't announced any outbreak. I can show direct evidence, even though China is still trying very hard to block my research. The government doesn't do any surveillance studies, but they say there is no outbreak."

He gave the example of Yunnan province, in southwestern China, which shares a border with Vietnam. More than 90 people have died from the bird-flu virus in Vietnam, yet the Yunnan officials denied any outbreak of bird flu in their province until Nov. 17. In reality, the virus has been circulating in Yunnan for months, according to Dr. Guan's data.

His disclosure will add new weight to the mounting concerns that Chinese officials -- especially at the local level -- are concealing information about bird-flu outbreaks.

China has a long history of suppressing bad news. It tried to cover up the SARS epidemic in its early stages in 2003. Later, it denied any outbreaks of avian flu throughout 2003, until finally acknowledging its presence in early 2004. Most experts believe the virus has actually been circulating in China for the past decade.

Observers are skeptical of China's assertion that only five human cases, the most recent announced yesterday, have been discovered in China so far, despite the dozens of outbreaks among poultry. They note that Beijing has prohibited any unauthorized reporting of bird-flu outbreaks and has tightly restricted all visits to affected regions.

"The outside world has no way of verifying the information," the Hong Kong newspaper Apple Daily commented in an investigative report last month.

"The Beijing authorities are imposing a tight blockade on news from the epidemic-affected areas," the newspaper said.

"There are now numerous clues indicating that some people are covering up the epidemic situation or are too afraid to make the epidemic situation known to the public."

Most recently, police arrested a farmer who blew the whistle on an outbreak of bird flu in Anhui province in central China. The farmer, Qiao Songju, was arrested six weeks after he alerted the government to an outbreak that infected more than 2,000 chickens. His lawyer says he has not been allowed to visit the farmer, who has been in detention for two weeks.

China has been slow to share its official bird-flu data with foreign experts, but Dr. Guan has used his own network of sources to gather virus samples. He blames the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture for failing to acknowledge the extent of bird flu among poultry flocks.

"Why has this virus been burning for 10 years like a fire?" he said.

"Ask the Chinese MOA. They should not avoid the question. It's obvious that it's out of control in China. It started off in Guangdong province and now the whole of China has the virus."

Only one Chinese laboratory is officially allowed to conduct tests for bird flu, and it is directly under the government's control, he noted.

"If you check the MOA website, it's very funny. One column announces all the outbreaks in the foreign countries. But in China, it's all good news."

In the eyes of the Chinese officials, any honest information about bird flu could be a threat to their jobs, Dr. Guan said.

"The leaders say they are working very hard, because they don't want to sacrifice their political future. But for the international community, they have nothing to share.

"They don't want to lose their prestige, their power or their position, like the Health Minister who lost his job in the SARS outbreak. They want to mask things.

"That's why they only allow one laboratory to do any work. Then they have only one version, and they can manipulate the figures."

Yep, the last article may the most important one ever posted here at TB2K. China, the same China that lied about a 50 mile pollution spill on a river and just slaughtered dozens of unarmed land protesters, is this the same one the world is relying on to tell them the truth about Bird Flu?

Bird flu is out of control in China. thousands have died already. It is coming, just flowing downstream like the benzene on the river.

Doomer Doug said:

Yep, the last article may the most important one ever posted here at TB2K. China, the same China that lied about a 50 mile pollution spill on a river and just slaughtered dozens of unarmed land protesters, is this the same one the world is relying on to tell them the truth about Bird Flu?

Bird flu is out of control in China. thousands have died already. It is coming, just flowing downstream like the benzene on the river.

Click to expand...

'THOUSANDS HAVE ALREADY DIED'? Ah, am I missing something, Doomer Doug? Where did you get that information? Sources please?? There has been unsubstantiated reports that approximately 300 have died....but China has completely denied that. As far as I know, China is claiming that only 5 people have contracted H5N1.

New Freedom said:

'THOUSANDS HAVE ALREADY DIED'? Ah, am I missing something, Doomer Doug? Where did you get that information? Sources please?? There has been unsubstantiated reports that approximately 300 have died....but China has completely denied that. As far as I know, China is claiming that only 5 people have contracted H5N1.

Click to expand...

I am not Doomer Doug. But perhaps I may be of some assistance to you.

http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/2005/12/trusting-china-on-bird-flu.html
Try this Doctor's blogger site. (IMHO) Dr. Revere is of some reconized athority on the subject of Bugs. And he, as well as others have an info line into CVhina. Perhaps you may assuage your curosity with their sites....