12/06 - H5N1 | United States Prepares for *Worst Case* Senerio

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<B><center>05 December 2005

World Bank Official Warns on Bird Flu Impact on Poorer Nations
<font size=+1 color=red>Disease could trigger severe downturn in world trade, senior economist says</font>

By Kathryn McConnell
Washington File Staff Writer
<A href="http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2005&m=December&x=20051205172156AKllennoCcM0.8305323&t=livefeeds/wf-latest.html">USINFO.STATE.GOV</a></center>

Washington -- The current worldwide alert for an avian influenza pandemic has an economic perspective, as well as a health view, says a World Bank official.</b>

In particular, the disease could have a significant economic impact on developing countries, said Milan Brahmbhatt, a senior economist with the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific region.

"The outcome of a global bird flu shock could lead to a downturn in world trade more severe than during the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) shock," which was concentrated in East Asia, Brahmbhatt said.

The economist hosted a live World Bank Internet discussion on avian influenza -- or bird flu -- December 5.

The World Bank is making available $500 million in loans and grants to help countries prepare for the possibility that their animal or human populations become affected by a spread of bird flu. The bank also is coordinating with other aid donors to prepare for a potential wide-scale spread of bird flu, Brahmbhatt said.

Country-level responses to the bird flu threat need to be closely coordinated across sectors, including ministries of agriculture, health, finance and with local governments, under strong leadership at the highest level, the official said. (See related article.)

At the country level, Brahmbhatt said, some governments in East Asia already have realized that policies leading to the compensation of farmers to cull or destroy infected bird flocks is necessary for containing the disease.

But, he said, countries also are realizing that paying farmers too much to kill their poultry may be considered an incentive to deliberately infect flocks.

The immediate major economic effect of a bird flu epidemic on countries could be a downturn in demand for travel, as people become wary of the potential transmission of flu from birds to humans.

The World Bank has undertaken a detailed study of potential economic impacts of a bird flu pandemic on various economies, in particular, those that rely on tourism and trade, Brahmbhatt said.

The economist said companies should look ahead and secure adequate financing to survive a severe reduction in demand for their products or services for a period of up to two years.

Brahmbhatt also said companies should identify alternative suppliers and ways of doing business, for example, by using technologies that would allow telecommuting and video conferencing.

Companies also need to plan to minimize the effects of a potential flu epidemic on their labor forces, such as by developing clear policies requiring infected workers to stay home and ensuring sanitary work environments.

Governments also need to reform bankruptcy policies that would facilitate corporate restructuring and the re-launching of companies quickly after an epidemic, should one occur, he said.

Brahmbhatt said global public-private efforts are needed to develop and produce enough vaccine to prevent a spread of highly pathogenic bird flu among humans and animals.

An epidemic is a situation where new cases of a human disease occur more rapidly than what would be normally expected. A pandemic is an epidemic affecting a large geographic region.

To date, 133 cases of highly pathogenic bird flu in humans have been identified, Brahmbhatt said.

If the bird flu situation is not contained, economic losses could top $800 billion, according to the World Bank.

A transcript of the discussion is available on the World Bank Web site.

For additional information on the avian influenza and efforts to combat it, see Bird Flu.


(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>US Planning to Cope with Possible Flu Pandemic </font>
By David McAlary
<A href="http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-12-05-voa56.cfm">VOA News - Washington</a>
05 December 2005</center>

Public health and emergency preparedness officials from across the United States gathered in Washington Monday to begin coordinating a national response to a possible influenza pandemic. The Bush administration has issued a list of planning activities that U.S. states and cities should consider to be ready if a pandemic emerges from the H5N1 bird flu virus or another virus.</b>

The meeting was convened by U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt, who told the assembly that a rapidly spreading global flu pandemic could infect more than 90 million Americans in four months, hospitalize 10 million, and kill nearly two million.

"Pandemics happen. It is a fact of biology. When it comes to a pandemic, we are overdue and underprepared," he said.

The U.S. official in charge of homeland security, Michael Chertoff, told the meeting that the need for preparation is the key lesson of the recent hurricanes that devastated a large part of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. The Bush administration, and his agency in particular, were heavily criticized for not being prepared for the storms. Mr. Chertoff says that the hurricanes were limited in their territorial scope, but that health pandemics affect entire nations by cutting sharply into the manpower needed to keep them operating.

"We recognize because of the wide scope of the consequences that can ensue from a pandemic that we have to draw upon a very wide spectrum of expertise and capabilities within the federal government and within our state and local first responder and public health communities. More than ever, partnership and collaboration are going to be critical," said Mr. Chertoff.

The U.S. government took its first major step in developing a pandemic flu plan with President Bush's request to Congress last month for more than $7 billion to better detect outbreaks at home and abroad and expand domestic production of flu vaccines and antiviral medicines. Each agency of the national government is writing its individual plan to confront a pandemic, to be coordinated by the Homeland Security Department. Health secretary Leavitt says state and local governments and the private sector should do the same. He is calling for each of the 50 U.S. states to hold its own pandemic planning summit within the next several months to link private and public resources and to educate politicians and the public about the importance of the issue.

"We have to maintain the level of urgency that is apparent right now," said Mr. Leavitt.

As a guide to planning, Mr. Leavitt's Health and Human Services Department has issued a checklist of activities that state and local officials can undertake, such as assigning responsibilities for specific tasks, linking the animal and human health sectors, procuring vaccines and medicines, and testing the readiness of health care facilities to cope with a surge of sick and dying patients. The department is also preparing voluntary checklists for schools, businesses, families, and individuals.

President Bush's special assistant for biological defense policy, Rajeev Vankayya, says government agencies must determine how they will maintain essential functions and staffing if a flu pandemic hits.

"The good news is that we're doing this now in the federal government," said Mr. Vankayya. "But this same activity needs to be replicated at every level of government. It needs to be replicated in communities."

Health Secretary Leavitt says a broad national program to respond to a flu pandemic would also help prepare to cope with other public health threats.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Bird flu dead 'wouldn't be buried for six months' </font>

06.12.05 1.00pm
<A href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10358655">nzherald.co.nz</a></center>

Plans to ban funerals and refrigerate bodies for up to six months during a bird flu pandemic have outraged Maori. </b>

The plans, unveiled at a meeting at Rotorua Hospital, have upset some kaumatua who say proposed bans on tangi and hongi have the potential to cause "uproar" among Maori.

District health boards across the country are planning how to cope with an influenza pandemic following the spread of the H5N1 virus throughout Asia and parts of Europe.

So far it has killed about 60 people.

The flu virus has only been contracted by people who have had direct contact with infected poultry but officials fear the virus will mutate and spread easily between humans.

To prevent the virus from arriving in New Zealand and spreading, the Ministry of Health is preparing interventions like closing borders and schools and restricting public gatherings.

Bay of Plenty medical officer of health Paul Martiquet said during a pandemic, the dead would be refrigerated or frozen in containers and buried as soon as it was over -- meaning funerals and tangi would be temporarily banned.

"We wouldn't want funerals or tangi taking place because they would be a breeding ground for exposing large groups of people to the virus," Dr Martiquet said.

Other strategies being discussed include a ban on hongi -- a traditional Maori greeting -- as any close contact between people could spread the virus.

The plans have upset Maori in Rotorua who say they conflict with their cultural beliefs.

Te Arawa Maori Trust Board chairman Anaru Rangiheuea said tangi were the most important cultural practice for Maori and any delays in farewelling the dead would only aggravate the grieving process.

"Being isolated from a loved one would have serious implications for many families and there would be issues for Maori on how their dead were being treated."

Pihopa (Bishop) Kingi said a hongi was nothing to be feared and was safer than kissing.

"No one can pass on germs by pressing noses. I don't see how it could be censured."

Te Runanga O Ngati Pikiao chief executive Dennis Curtis said hongi and tangi were as natural to Maori as "breathing air" and any ban on their practices would outrage Maori.

Staff at Rotorua's Te Puia tourist attraction, however, say a hongi ban would not affect the cultural experience of its visitors.

Historically, Te Puia guides greet visitors with a hongi but the practice was stopped about two years ago during the Sars (Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome) crisis.

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Bird Flu: All You Ever Wanted to Know About the Coming Pandemic </font>

Monday, December 05, 2005
By Liza Porteus
<A href="http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,177751,00.html">FOX News.com</a></center>

Medical experts and scientists from all corners agree that the United States is not at all prepared for such a pandemic. Federal, state and local lawmakers and health care officials are working feverishly to stockpile antiviral medication and mass produce vaccines that could eventually help stop a global outbreak.</b>

Editor's Note: This is the first in a five-part series on bird flu that will be featured throughout the week on FOXNews.com.

"Should it continue along its malignant paths, there's little question it could become one of the most terrible threats to life this world has ever faced ... you stop at one place, it re-emerges at another," Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said Monday about the H5N1 virus characteristic of bird flu.

"The avian flu bears the potential for societal disruption of unprecedented proportion," added Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff.

"We're not prepared today," Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., a physician, told FOX News recently.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>The bird flu scare </font>

December 6 2005
<A href="http://www.centralchronicle.com/20051206/0612301.htm">Central Chronicle.com</a></center>

The guns are drawn, the coffers are stocked and international border security tightened. The preparations portend a global disaster - a possible pandemic as the avian influenza ominously overruns countries. Estimates of death toll and economic loss are running out of zeroes. The globe's feathers are ruffled, prompting astronomical flu funds and a mad scramble to stock drugs and vaccines.
The whole spectre of a global catastrophe is created on one premise: a potential mutation in the virus that might enable it to jump from human to human. But as of now, only cases of bird-to-human transfer have been reported; not a single case of human-to-human transfer of an avian influenza virus is known.</b>

Proponents of bird flu pandemic untiringly cite the catastrophic Spanish flu of 1918, which killed 20-30 million people in Europe, South America and the US. But numerous studies have indicated that the 1918 strain didn't have an avian origin. Jeffery K Taubenberger of the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in the US, one of the foremost researchers on the 1918 pandemic, reconstructed the virus from excavated bodies and compared its genetic constitution with that of birds captured in 1918. His conclusion: the extremely pathogenic virus did not acquire its genetic material directly from a bird (Journal of Virology, Vol 76, No 15, August, 2002).

Having claimed 68 human lives since December 2003, avian flu is being seen as a gigantic killer. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) pegged a possible avian flu human toll at a dramatic maximum of 150 million people, but soon scaled it down to 7.4 million. The World Bank has quoted US $800 billion as the possible loss from avian flu to the global economy and promised US $1 billion to combat it.

The virus strain behind the fatalities is referred to as H5N1. It is the only avian influenza virus to have claimed human lives since 1980. Scientists say because of the extremely versatile nature of influenza viruses, it is difficult to determine which avian flu strain may jump to humans.

According to Peter Palese, a microbiologist at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, the threat from H5N1 flu virus is a false alarm. Studies of blood samples collected in 1992 from people in rural China indicate that millions of people had developed antibodies to the H5N1 strain. This implied that they had recovered from the infection without any apparent ailment. Moreover, the H5N1 avian flu strain has been circulating in China for almost a decade without any reported incidence of a human-to-human transmission.

The reasons for the spread of the flu are still being hotly debated. Though poultry trade and illegal wild bird trade are seen as possible conduits, the migratory birds are portrayed as the primary carriers of the flu virus. There are two flyways (pre-determined paths, in specific seasons) that the birds use to migrate between south and southeast Asia, Western Siberia and Eastern Europe. It is inferred that these are the regions getting affected.

International conservation organisations, like Wetlands International and Birdlife International, are aghast at the charge against migratory birds. The spring migration occurs during April-May, while the first sign of an outbreak, outside China, was seen at the end of July. "The migratory patterns of the (supposed) carriers and the seasons do not match up with the outbreak time-table. Moreover, the infected ducks die within two days and would not be able to fly over long distances," explains Gopi Sundar, a researcher with the International Crane Foundation's Delhi centre. "Even the outbreaks in Croatia and Romania in migratory birds have been self limiting, which means that the infected birds died quickly, without spreading the disease," he adds.

Moreover, some scientists ask, with the virus doing the rounds of southeast Asia since 1997, why has it struck the migratory birds now?

Evidence against migratory birds being the primary carriers of the virus also comes from the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), based in Paris. Its study on the avian influenza outbreak in Russia concluded the strain was different from that found in Qinghai Lake, rubbishing the theory of wild birds carrying the virus to Russia. Says Sundar, "Till now, there has been no confirmed record of transfer of the virus from migratory birds to poultry. Rather, it is the other way round."

Meanwhile, the flu scare has prompted several countries to impose restrictions on poultry imports. The US, the biggest exporter (2.47 million tonnes in 2004), is suffering as Russia, the biggest poultry importer, along with China and South Korea have put a ban on poultry imports. Critics of the migratory bird-viral flu theory claim it is being used as a red herring to take attention away from the more imminent threat from poultry trade - legal or illegal.

Despite being located within two flyways, India stands out like an island on the map of avian influenza (AI) outbreaks. "Not a single case of high pathogenic AI has been reported," says S K Bandyopadhyay, commissioner, department of animal husbandry and dairying (DAHD).

An estimated 5-20 million migratory birds visit Indian wetlands between October and March each year. This October, several wild birds that flew to Kulik sanctuary in West Bengal, died. While the official toll was 40, unofficial reports pegged it at 1,000. But Bandyopadhyay claimed the samples of dead birds sent to the High Security Animal Disease Laboratory in Bhopal were found free of H5N1 AI virus.

Since 2003, H5N1 has been found in only 11 migratory species, such as the bar- headed geese and red-footed falcons, all of which visit India. Many of these birds also visit China's Qinghai Lake, where an H5N1 outbreak occurred in May, 2005.

Taking advantage of the fact that this virus is predominant right now only in Asia, the US Poultry and Egg Export Council recently called for a complete shutdown of Asia's backyard poultry. But this sector provides livelihood to the poorest sections of the continent.

In India, the unorganised backyard poultry sector accounts for a significant 30 per cent of the production, according to the 2003-2004 DAHD annual report. An estimated 3 million people make a living from poultry.

Another problem is the secrecy that plagues management of poultry diseases. An example is the low-pathogenic avian influenza, fatal only to birds that afflicted several farms recently. While scientists and senior officials in DAHD confirmed the presence of the virus, the industry vehemently denied its existence. "There is no low or high pathogenic strain of avian flu in India," asserts Anuradha Desai, chairperson of the Pune-based Venkateshwara Hatcheries, the country's biggest poultry firm.

A common practice in Indian poultry is for farm owners to make autogenic vaccines (produced crudely by purifying blood from infected birds) and sell them to small farmers. "Such vaccines are dangerous because they involve the risk of spread of other diseases from one farm to another. Moreover, the sector is utterly unregulated," says Shabbir Ahmad Khan, vice president, Poultry Federation of India.

A case in point is the export of vaccines against Ranikhet disease to Bangladesh. In February this year, a copy of a lab report secured by Down to Earth showed the vaccine, from a Gujarat-based firm, also contained killed strains of the lowpathogenic AI virus. This prompted Bangladesh to ban import of all Indian poultry products, says AT Venugopal, former director of the Poultry Diseases Research Centre of the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University. The case also revealed the presence of low-pathogenic AI virus in India.

The need for India to be vigilant becomes imperative in view of its Rs 32,000 crore poultry industry, ranked fifth in the world.

The AI threat prompted the Union ministries of agriculture, environment and forest (MoEF), and health to draft an action plan in August, 2005. The plan focuses on close monitoring of migratory birds flocking to protected wetlands and poultry. For this, MoEF is working with the Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun and nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) such as the Bombay Natural History Society. NGOs have identified 173 sites where migratory birds gather. Expert groups will be formed to collect samples. The birds will also be monitored through ringing, colour marking and satellite tracking.

"Every month, we now collect about 100 blood samples from waterfowl," says Subrata Biswas, secretary, department of animal husbandry, Kerala. But he also reveals that the results of random samples take an interminable 15-21 days to reach the department. Such a delay defeats the whole purpose of random sampling. In comparison, "the Australian government takes just four hours to report the results," says Venugopal.

In states where backyard poultry is popular, such as West Bengal and Kerala (80 per cent of their poultry is unorganised), villages usually border wetlands. In such a scenario, it is crucial to ensure poultry and migratory birds don't interact, says Sundar. "According to our draft action plan, we will be monitoring bird population and surrounding poultry mainly in wetlands declared as protected under the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972," says PMA Hakeem, secretary, DAHD. However, Sundar argues that these large protected wetlands are relatively free of domestic poultry - it is crucial to monitor the less-known wetlands, where the poultry freely mixes with wild birds and the country's huge backyard poultry population. But Bandyopadhyay admits, only a few samples are taken from backyard poultry.

At present, the monitoring system in India is awfully inadequate. "The only bird counts are done by volunteer networks, which are grossly inadequate. As of now, the only official bird counts are for major areas such as Bharatpur or Pong Dam," says Rahul Kaul of the Wildlife Trust of India. Bandyopadhyay admits that the government has no official figure on migratory birds.

Ultimately, it will be the farmers engaged in backyard poultry who will suffer most, as the larger players manage to influence the policy shifts. They have to contend with heavier tolls than their organized counterparts, which though few, have come to represent the entire industry and wield considerable influence over state policies.

The government should ensure the current scenario in the poultry industry does not hurt smaller farmers and companies, like last year when import of seed material (grand parent stock) and vaccines was banned. The measure had raised the cost of production, adversely affecting smaller farmers and laying golden eggs for the larger ones.

Considering the stakes for India are high, it is about time the government disentangled itself from the industry's turf wars. The government must ensure that the monitoring of migratory birds and of poultry in the organised and unorganised sections of the industry does not deteriorate into a sham. Right now a greater threat to public health and the poultry industry arises from government apathy and less from H5N1.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>FACTBOX - UN Food Safety Recommendations on Bird Flu</font>

December 6 2005
<A href="http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/33844/story.htm">Planet Ark.com</a></center>

GENEVA - The World Health Organisation (WHO) and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) issued guidelines on Monday to reduce exposure to the deadly bird flu virus in areas with outbreaks in poultry. </b>

Here is a list of main recommendations from the two United Nations agencies.
* No birds from flocks with disease should enter the food chain.

* Do not eat raw poultry parts, including raw blood, or raw eggs in or from areas with outbreaks in poultry.

* Separate raw meat from cooked or ready-to-eat foods to avoid contamination. Do not use the same chopping board or the same knife. Do not handle both raw and cooked foods without washing your hands in between and do not place cooked meat back on the same plate or surface it was on prior to cooking. Do not use raw or soft-boiled eggs in food preparations that will not be heat-treated or cooked.

* Keep clean and wash your hands. After handling frozen or thawed raw poultry or eggs, wash your hands thoroughly with soap. Wash and disinfect all surfaces and utensils that have been in contact with the raw meat.

* Cook thoroughly: Thorough cooking of poultry meat will inactivate the virus. Either ensure that the poultry meat reaches 70 degrees celsius (158 degrees Fahrenheit) at the centre of the product ("piping" hot) or that the meat is not pink in any part. Eggs yolks should not be runny or liquid.

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<B><center>Can States Pay for Bird Flu Preps?

<font size=+1 color=brown>State Officials Worried About the Cost of Getting Ready for Possible Pandemic</font>
By Todd Zwillich
<A href="http://www.webmd.com/content/article/115/112008?src=RSS_PUBLIC">WebMD Medical News </a>
Reviewed By Brunilda Nazario, MD
Monday, December 05, 2005 </center>

Dec. 5, 2005 - The Bush administration is counting on cities and states to do most of the work to prepare for a possible bird flu pandemic. But many state officials are now complaining that they don't have the money to prepare the way Washington wants them to.</b>

Federal officials have repeatedly stressed that only local communities can truly prepare for a potentially devastating flu pandemic. That's because unlike a hurricane or a terrorist attack, bird flu outbreaks would likely occur across the entire nation at once, simultaneously threatening large cities and thousands of small communities.

'Worst Case' Planning

According to a federal "worst case" planning scenario, a human outbreak of the H5N1 bird flu virus could sicken 90 million Americans and kill 2 million in a matter of months. Schools, airports, hospitals -- even grocery stores and utilities could all be affected or even brought to a standstill.

"The hard reality is they play out in home towns, countless home towns," Health and Human Services Secretary Michael O. Leavitt said of historical pandemics to a meeting of city and state officials gathered in Washington Monday to discuss preparedness plans.

Leavitt announced Monday that federal officials would meet with authorities in every state over the next four months to help with preparedness plans. Administration officials are also distributing a checklist designed to help state and local jurisdictions prepare for a potential outbreak.

Who Pays for Bird Flu Drugs?

Several state officials tell WebMD that they support Bush administration efforts to stockpile a flu vaccine, buy supplies of antiviral drugs, and encourage local preparedness. But they also argue that cities and states may not be able to get the job done with what they see as an inadequate amount of money from Washington.

"We are out of money. We cannot do some of the things we need to do," says Joann Schaefer, MD, the medical director for the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services. Schaefer said that the state is "begging and borrowing" to pay for current efforts to increase public awareness of preparedness efforts.

Part of the national preparedness plan unveiled by Bush last month calls for Washington to distribute some of a planned 44 million-dose purchase of the antiviral drug Tamiflu to states. After that, states are to pay 75% of the cost of 31 million additional doses.

Schaefer said she does not yet know how much of the drug her state may need to purchase in order to be ready for a potential outbreak. But she worried that under current financial conditions, purchasing the drug could be "off the table" for Nebraska.

The federal plan calls for $100 million -- out of a proposed $7.1 billion total -- to go to assisting states with readiness plans. That money -- an average of $2 million per state -- won't go far enough, says Marc Metayer, Vermont's deputy commissioner for public safety.

"Not when you start dividing it up among the states," he says.

Getting Around the Financial Shortfall

Julie Eckstein, director of the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, says her state does not have enough funds to increase hospital capacity to handle a potential wave of sick patients. "Investing in that means that we're not investing in another part of the health system," she says.

But shortfall is not a problem because Missouri planners have instead focused on improving connections between hospitals, food suppliers, businesses, government agencies, and any other groups that may play a role in maintaining normalcy if a pandemic hits.

"There are lots of cheap things" cities and states can do to prepare, Eckstein says. "It doesn't take federal money to create those relationships."

Leavitt, a former Utah governor, said he was "intensely aware" of the financial pressures states face in preparing for a pandemic. Congress has not yet decided how money in the proposed $7.1 billion plan will be spent, meaning that states could get more help.

Georges Benjamin, MD, executive director of the American Public Health Association, tells WebMD that states are not able to prepare as quickly as they could, both because of financial shortfalls and a lack of political will.

He noted that Congress cut public health aid to states by $120 million this year before the federal plan proposed to spend $100 million for local pandemic readiness.

"To take $120 million away and then put $100 million on the table doesn't add up," Benjamin says.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>UN Reassures Meat Eaters Over Bird Flu Fears </font>

by Stephanie Nebehay
SWITZERLAND: December 6, 2005
<A href="http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/33856/story.htm">Planet Ark.com</a></center>


GENEVA - United Nations agencies told consumers on Monday that properly cooked poultry was safe to eat, a move likely to be welcomed by farmers worried that bird flu fears could put turkey and goose off the Christmas menu. </b>

Birds from diseased flocks should not enter the food chain and infected birds should not be used for animal feed, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said in guidance to international food safety authorities.
Eggs from sick birds could contain the virus in the white, yolk, and surface of the shell. Eggs from affected areas should not be eaten raw or with a runny yolk, they added.

The H5N1 bird flu virus is endemic in poultry in parts of Asia where it has killed almost 70 people in five countries since 2003. It has spread into eastern Europe and Kuwait and there are fears migratory birds could now carry it to Africa.

Slaughtering and defeathering a diseased bird poses the greatest risk of the virus passing to people, the statement said.

To date there is no evidence that people have become infected with the virus after eating either contaminated poultry meat that has been properly cooked or egg or egg products, the agencies said.

Bird flu remains hard for people to catch, but there are fears it could mutate into a form which passes from person to person, sparking a pandemic in which millions could die.

Worries over the safety of poultry have depressed sales in parts of Europe and the Arab world. Birds such as turkey and goose are traditional staples of the Christmas table, making this a vital time of year for producers.


GOOD HYGIENE

"In areas where there is no bird flu outbreak in poultry, there is no risk that consumers will be exposed to the virus via the handling or consumption of poultry and poultry products," the three-page statement said.

In areas with outbreaks in fowl, cooking chicken, ducks, geese, turkeys and guinea-fowl "at or above 70 degrees Celsius (158 Fahrenheit) throughout the product, so that absolutely no meat remains raw and red, is a safe measure to kill the H5N1 virus".

This ensures there is no active virus remaining if the live bird has been infected and mistakenly entered the food chain.

The UN agencies issued a series of specific "good hygienic practices" recommended to reduce exposure to the virus in areas with outbreaks in poultry.

These included not eating raw poultry parts - including raw blood or raw eggs.

Raw meat and cooked foods should be kept separately - handled with different knives and chopping boards - to avoid contamination in such areas, according to the statement.

People preparing food in areas with poultry outbreaks should wash hands frequently and disinfect all surfaces and utensils that have been in contact with raw meat.

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Precautions possible for bird flu threat</font>

Dec 5, 2005, 23:15 GMT
<A href="http://news.monstersandcritics.com/health/article_1066814.php/Precautions_possible_for_bird_flu_threat">monstersandcritics.com</a></center>

ROCHESTER, MN, United States (UPI) -- Mayo Clinic scientists are offering suggestions to physicians that might help prevent or delay an outbreak of avian influenza in the United States.</b>

Many indicators suggest the H5N1 virus is closer to extending beyond Southeast Asia and into the worldwide population, said Drs. Priya Sampathkumar of the Mayo Clinic`s Division of Infectious Diseases, and Dennis Maki of the University of Wisconsin Medical School`s Section of Infectious Diseases.

Both men emphasize major genetic alterations in the current H5N1 virus must occur before rapid human-to-human spread, essential for a pandemic such as occurred in 1918, is likely.

'If an avian flu pandemic were to occur this winter, we would not be adequately prepared to deal with it,' says Sampathkumar. But the physicians say quarantining methods, antiviral medications and other measures could help contain an outbreak at its earliest stages.

Most critical, they said, is health professionals ensuring very early identification of cases; creating sufficient stockpiles of antivirals, with the capacity for rapid delivery to target groups; rapid institution and enforcement of quarantine measures; and a high level of compliance by the public.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Worst-case scenario plan on bird flu</font>

From correspondents in Washington

December 06, 2005
<A href="http://www.dailytelegraph.news.com.au/story/0,20281,17477634-5001028,00.html">The Daily Telegraph.com</a></center>

<u>US federal authorities are preparing to face a possible avian flu pandemic in the country by contemplating a worst-case scenario</u>, under which more than 92 million people would become ill in the space of four months, US Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said overnight.</b>

The projections are based on the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic that killed about 50 million people around the world and emerged as the most serious pandemic of the 20th century.

"Because we want the assumptions to tease out and exercise the most severe case, the assumptions we are building on are primarily focused on the 1918 pandemic," the secretary told a meeting of officials from the 50 states and local governments, which focused on pandemic preparedness planning.

"The H5N1 virus we are concerned about currently resembles the triggering virus in 1918," he said. "I will begin to use those planing assumptions in the development of models that will help us and you make decisions."

According to mathematical projections used by Washington, everything begins with an epidemic that breaks out in Thailand in a small village, where the H5N1 virus has hypothetically mutated and acquired the ability to transmit among humans.

This has not yet occurred. So far the virus has been jumping from birds to humans, but scientists believe it is just a matter of time before it learns how to move from human to human.

Bird flu has affected 130 people in Asia, with 69 of those cases being fatal.

Under the same catastrophic scenario, the epidemic will turn into a pandemic in just several weeks, spreading first in Asia before reaching Europe and the American continent 50 days later.

At the end of week six, Americans will see 722,000 pandemic cases in the United States, by week nine - 37.4 million, by week 12 - 90.8 million, and by the end of week 16, 92.2 million cases, according to Mr Leavitt.

"The reality is ... pandemics happen," the secretary said. "When it comes to a pandemic, we are overdue and we are underprepared."

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<B><center>Mesa task force readies city for flu pandemic
<font size=+1 color=green>Should pandemic arrive, city has resources ready</font>

Senta Scarborough
<A href="http://www.azcentral.com/community/chandler/articles/1206m-fluZ6.html">The Arizona Republic</a>
Dec. 6, 2005 12:00 AM </center>

Gail Coakley of the Mesa Fire Department is keeping a close eye on the flu.</b>

Each day, the community-relations assistant checks out health-related Web sites and newspapers tracking any chance of a possible flu pandemic headed this way.

In late August, Mesa established a pandemic flu task force at the recommendation of Fire Chief Harry Beck.

The plan includes how to respond, educating the public, and working with police, city staff members and health officials, Mesa Assistant Chief Gil Damianisaid.

The task force was created after news of the avian flu and its potential of becoming a pandemic raised concerns for the Fire Department.

"It is always a concern. We always train for the unexpected," Mesa Deputy Fire Chief Mary Cameli said. "We don't wait until something happens. We want to be well-prepared."

But Mesa has been preparing for years, conducting mass immunizations, training staff and purchasing equipment.

Now, the Fire Department wants its residents to do their part by learning how to prevent the spread of germs.

Their advice: Wash your hands regularly, cough into the sleeve of your shirt, and use hand sanitizers. If you're sick, stay home. Cameli also encourages residents, especially children and senior citizens, to consider getting flu shots.

In the past few years, Mesa conducted three mass immunizations on thousands of children, senior citizens and city employees, which have been reviewed.

"We want to be ready with personnel and equipment to do it," said Paul Carbajal, acting emergency management assistant chief .

In just three hours, the Mesa Fire Department can provide shots for least 1,200 people. Mesa is discussing conducting "drive-by" shots where people would travel to a location, stick out their arms and get the shots.

The flu preparations are just part of Mesa's participation in the Metropolitan Medical Response System.

Mesa, Phoenix, Tucson, and Glendale are the four cities funded by the federal government as part of a statewide response system to natural and man-made disasters, including a flu pandemic.

They provide services after the major incident until federal assistance like FEMA or disaster medical assistance teams (D-MAT) arrive.

"It provides the bridge of personnel and equipment for the first 72 hours," Carbajal said.

The four cities work together to purchase the same equipment to make it easier to respond to emergencies if they strike.

About 55 Mesa paramedics have been trained as toxic and immunization medics. They are able to provide antidotes to nerve agents, biological and nuclear chemicals, or other hazardous material exposures. They also can conduct mass immunizations for a flu pandemic or biological threat. An additional 25 have completed the toxic medic training and will receive the immunization portion early next year.

"If anything happens, we are well-prepared," said Randy Budd, Mesa Fire Department Emergency Management System captain.

Budd said the additional training raises the level of daily service for residents. The toxic/immunization medics routinely conduct immunization clinics and use the skills on emergency calls daily.

In the past two months, the Mesa and Phoenix fire departments have organized this training for paramedics around the state and have trained 50 other paramedics from the East Valley, including Chandler, Apache Junction and Gilbert.

Mesa also has purchased two 100-patient module systems, costing $70,000 each, through federal grants. All four cities are purchasing these mobile medical units.

=



<B><center>Mesa task force readies city for flu pandemic
<font size=+1 color=green>Should pandemic arrive, city has resources ready</font>

Senta Scarborough
<A href="http://www.azcentral.com/community/chandler/articles/1206m-fluZ6.html">The Arizona Republic</a>
Dec. 6, 2005 12:00 AM </center>

Gail Coakley of the Mesa Fire Department is keeping a close eye on the flu.</b>

Each day, the community-relations assistant checks out health-related Web sites and newspapers tracking any chance of a possible flu pandemic headed this way.

In late August, Mesa established a pandemic flu task force at the recommendation of Fire Chief Harry Beck.

The plan includes how to respond, educating the public, and working with police, city staff members and health officials, Mesa Assistant Chief Gil Damianisaid.

The task force was created after news of the avian flu and its potential of becoming a pandemic raised concerns for the Fire Department.

"It is always a concern. We always train for the unexpected," Mesa Deputy Fire Chief Mary Cameli said. "We don't wait until something happens. We want to be well-prepared."

But Mesa has been preparing for years, conducting mass immunizations, training staff and purchasing equipment.

Now, the Fire Department wants its residents to do their part by learning how to prevent the spread of germs.

Their advice: Wash your hands regularly, cough into the sleeve of your shirt, and use hand sanitizers. If you're sick, stay home. Cameli also encourages residents, especially children and senior citizens, to consider getting flu shots.

In the past few years, Mesa conducted three mass immunizations on thousands of children, senior citizens and city employees, which have been reviewed.

"We want to be ready with personnel and equipment to do it," said Paul Carbajal, acting emergency management assistant chief .

In just three hours, the Mesa Fire Department can provide shots for least 1,200 people. Mesa is discussing conducting "drive-by" shots where people would travel to a location, stick out their arms and get the shots.

The flu preparations are just part of Mesa's participation in the Metropolitan Medical Response System.

Mesa, Phoenix, Tucson, and Glendale are the four cities funded by the federal government as part of a statewide response system to natural and man-made disasters, including a flu pandemic.

They provide services after the major incident until federal assistance like FEMA or disaster medical assistance teams (D-MAT) arrive.

"It provides the bridge of personnel and equipment for the first 72 hours," Carbajal said.

The four cities work together to purchase the same equipment to make it easier to respond to emergencies if they strike.

About 55 Mesa paramedics have been trained as toxic and immunization medics. They are able to provide antidotes to nerve agents, biological and nuclear chemicals, or other hazardous material exposures. They also can conduct mass immunizations for a flu pandemic or biological threat. An additional 25 have completed the toxic medic training and will receive the immunization portion early next year.

"If anything happens, we are well-prepared," said Randy Budd, Mesa Fire Department Emergency Management System captain.

Budd said the additional training raises the level of daily service for residents. The toxic/immunization medics routinely conduct immunization clinics and use the skills on emergency calls daily.

In the past two months, the Mesa and Phoenix fire departments have organized this training for paramedics around the state and have trained 50 other paramedics from the East Valley, including Chandler, Apache Junction and Gilbert.

Mesa also has purchased two 100-patient module systems, costing $70,000 each, through federal grants. All four cities are purchasing these mobile medical units.

=



<B><center>Mesa task force readies city for flu pandemic
<font size=+1 color=green>Should pandemic arrive, city has resources ready</font>

Senta Scarborough
<A href="http://www.azcentral.com/community/chandler/articles/1206m-fluZ6.html">The Arizona Republic</a>
Dec. 6, 2005 12:00 AM </center>

Gail Coakley of the Mesa Fire Department is keeping a close eye on the flu.</b>

Each day, the community-relations assistant checks out health-related Web sites and newspapers tracking any chance of a possible flu pandemic headed this way.

In late August, Mesa established a pandemic flu task force at the recommendation of Fire Chief Harry Beck.

The plan includes how to respond, educating the public, and working with police, city staff members and health officials, Mesa Assistant Chief Gil Damianisaid.

The task force was created after news of the avian flu and its potential of becoming a pandemic raised concerns for the Fire Department.

"It is always a concern. We always train for the unexpected," Mesa Deputy Fire Chief Mary Cameli said. "We don't wait until something happens. We want to be well-prepared."

But Mesa has been preparing for years, conducting mass immunizations, training staff and purchasing equipment.

Now, the Fire Department wants its residents to do their part by learning how to prevent the spread of germs.

Their advice: Wash your hands regularly, cough into the sleeve of your shirt, and use hand sanitizers. If you're sick, stay home. Cameli also encourages residents, especially children and senior citizens, to consider getting flu shots.

In the past few years, Mesa conducted three mass immunizations on thousands of children, senior citizens and city employees, which have been reviewed.

"We want to be ready with personnel and equipment to do it," said Paul Carbajal, acting emergency management assistant chief .

In just three hours, the Mesa Fire Department can provide shots for least 1,200 people. Mesa is discussing conducting "drive-by" shots where people would travel to a location, stick out their arms and get the shots.

The flu preparations are just part of Mesa's participation in the Metropolitan Medical Response System.

Mesa, Phoenix, Tucson, and Glendale are the four cities funded by the federal government as part of a statewide response system to natural and man-made disasters, including a flu pandemic.

They provide services after the major incident until federal assistance like FEMA or disaster medical assistance teams (D-MAT) arrive.

"It provides the bridge of personnel and equipment for the first 72 hours," Carbajal said.

The four cities work together to purchase the same equipment to make it easier to respond to emergencies if they strike.

About 55 Mesa paramedics have been trained as toxic and immunization medics. They are able to provide antidotes to nerve agents, biological and nuclear chemicals, or other hazardous material exposures. They also can conduct mass immunizations for a flu pandemic or biological threat. An additional 25 have completed the toxic medic training and will receive the immunization portion early next year.

"If anything happens, we are well-prepared," said Randy Budd, Mesa Fire Department Emergency Management System captain.

Budd said the additional training raises the level of daily service for residents. The toxic/immunization medics routinely conduct immunization clinics and use the skills on emergency calls daily.

In the past two months, the Mesa and Phoenix fire departments have organized this training for paramedics around the state and have trained 50 other paramedics from the East Valley, including Chandler, Apache Junction and Gilbert.

Mesa also has purchased two 100-patient module systems, costing $70,000 each, through federal grants. All four cities are purchasing these mobile medical units.

=



<B><center>Tuesday 6 December 2005
<font size=+1 color=blue>Bird flu battle hots up </font>

By alistair baptista
Gulf Daily News</a></center>

BAHRAIN is stepping up its defences against bird flu with a massive public awareness campaign.</b>

It is distributing 50,000 leaflets through schools, offices and other places to keep people on the alert.

Pupils at private and government schools are also being educated about the disease with lectures by experts.

The leaflet, issued by the Municipalities and Agriculture Ministry, contains detailed information about the virus, what it does and how to guard against it.

Poultry owners are advised to look for symptoms in chickens such as fatigue, loss of appetite, an acute reduction in the production of eggs, production of soft-shelled eggs, swollen faces, severe inflammation, haemorrhaging under the skin, as well as watery excretion.

Other signs in birds include running around erratically, excessive shrieking and respiratory symptoms.

In humans, the disease causes a rise in temperature, throat congestion, excessive coughing, watery eyes, and an accumulation of liquid in the lungs.

Education about the disease is necessary to prevent an outbreak, said Municipalities and Agriculture Ministry animal wealth director Dr Salman Abdulnabi Ebrahim.

"We have already visited a number of public as well as private schools and we aim to cover more and have more lectures."

More than 800,000 birds in poultry farms and private have so far been vaccinated in Bahrain.

Officials have confirmed that another million vaccines should arrive from Holland in two to three weeks.

Teams of investigators are still visiting commercial poultry farms and homes of pet-owners daily to disinfect birds and educate farmers.

In addition, farms are being sprayed with disinfectant, while pet owners can take their birds to the ministry's two veterinary centres in Manama and Budaiya for vaccination.

"Thankfully we still haven't found any traces of the disease," said Dr Ebrahim.

=



<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>US Prepares For Bird Flu</font>

By Kate Walker
Washington (UPI) Dec 05, 2005
<A href="http://www.terradaily.com/news/epidemics-05zzzzn.html">terradaily.com</a></center>

Six villages in Ukraine's Crimean peninsula were quarantined over the weekend following reports of avian-influenza outbreaks.</b>
Tests confirmed the presence of an H5 strain of avian influenza in 1,900 birds following an outbreak in Romania, near the shared border with Ukraine.

Following reporting of the outbreak Ukrainian officials responded by culling poultry, controlling the movement of people in the area, disinfecting farms and testing other birds for signs of infection. Russia responded to the news by banning imports of all forms of Ukrainian poultry, including live birds, feed, hatching eggs, meat, poultry feed, feathers and equipment.

Although the weekend marked the first reported outbreaks of avian influenza in Ukraine, villagers complained that they had been reporting deaths among their poultry since September, with no action taken by officials.

In response to this news, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko fired the country's top veterinary officer.

"In the early stages, the local and central veterinary services proved unable to cope. As a result of this trip I am ordering the dismissal of the chief veterinarian. What happened in these villages is clearly a professional error of the veterinary service and it must accept responsibility," Yushchenko told reporters.

Meanwhile:

-- New avian-influenza outbreaks have been reported in Romania, and the villages have been quarantined.

Villagers have been instructed to keep all poultry away from wild birds, and domestic birds will be culled.

-- Two men in eastern Romania have been hospitalized under suspicion of avian influenza.

The men, who are quarantined and under constant observation, have not yet had the presence of an H5 strain of avian influenza confirmed, but both had come into contact with infected poultry before suffering flu-like symptoms.

If the cases are confirmed, they will be the first human instances of avian-influenza infection in Europe.

-- An Indonesian baby has tested positive for avian influenza. It is believed he contracted the disease from an infected pigeon.

-- Vietnamese officials have culled 3,800 birds following reports of an outbreak in a province bordering China.

The culls followed the deaths of 900 birds from a disease later confirmed by laboratories to be an H5 strain of avian influenza.

-- A Vietnamese doctor with experience treating human victims of avian influenza has expressed concerns regarding the effectiveness of Tamiflu in treating the disease.

"We place no importance on using this drug on our patients," London's Sunday Times reported Dr. Nguyen Tuong Van as saying. "Tamiflu is really only meant for treating ordinary type A flu. It was not designed to combat H5N1."

-- Following United Press International's report Friday that Thai doctors were expressing concern H5N1 may have achieved human-to-human transmission, some Indonesian doctors came out in agreement.

"There are just too many people who have it," a health official in Jakarta said. "In many cases, it is difficult to establish any contact with birds."

Another was quoted by WorldNetDaily as saying avian flu has "spread all over the city."

-- U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt warned of a worst-case avian-influenza scenario for the country in which an 85-day initial cycle of infection led to 120 million infected, with varying degrees of illness.

"At the end of week six you will see pandemic cases (in the United States) that will be 722,000," Leavitt said. Normal life will be interrupted, and schools and businesses will be closed.

"Closing schools has a profound consequence," Leavitt said. "Movement restrictions of any sort, whether on the borders of our country or borders of our towns creates very real economic dilemmas ... agonizingly difficult choices about the distribution of food and resources."

=



<B><center>Dead birds raising concern

<font size=+0 color=green>Tests are ongoing in an effort to determine what killed hundreds of water birds at a reservoir outside of Agusacalientes. </font>

BY LUIGI RIVERA RAMÍREZ/EL UNIVERSAL
<A href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/16126.html">El Universal.com</a>
December 05, 2005</center>

AGUASCALIENTES Hundreds of aquatic birds turned up dead along the shores of the El Niagara reservoir, 15 km east of Aguascalientes, victims of an apparent mass infection.</b>

The dead birds, most of them ducks and coots, were reported by citizens late last Friday and state officials began to recover and examine the animals over the weekend.

"So far, it looks like botulism, although we can't rule anything out yet," said state environment chief Juan Solorio Tlazeca, who said that the affected birds were still being examined at a state animal pathology laboratory.

Enriqueta Medellín, president of the local Ecological Conscience civic organization, said that she was reserving judgement on the case until test results were available.

"It could be botulism, although it is notable to me that they did not find much bird excrement, and botulism causes diarrhea," she said. "So another possible cause might be water pollution."

=


<center>

*BUMP*

I sure hope this works....
I LOST this thread last night,
and just now located a way
-- I hope! To bring it back,
with out having to go re-build it
all over again......</center>

http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2005/12/emw319092.htm

New Bird Flu Site Is Clearing House for Avian Flu Information

Bird Flu Beacon has news of an alleged cover-up and under-reporting of bird flu in China.

(PRWEB) December 6, 2005 – Bird Flu Beacon (http://www.birdflubeacon.com) has been created to inform professionals and the public about the progress of a potential pandemic. The site features both the latest bird flu news and practical tips for preventing infection and for protection in case of infection.

Recently the site posted news of a controversy in China, which has been accused of under-reporting human bird flu infections and deaths. Dr. Masato Tashiro, a virologist working with the World Health Organization, reported in a meeting with his colleagues that there were 300 deaths and 3,000 people quarantined in Hunan province based on unconfirmed, unofficial reports he obtained in Hunan.

Boxum.com, a Chinese website, also made this claim, adding thousands have been quarantined, and human-to-human transmissions have occurred. The site reported 77 deaths of workers who were helping control H5N1 in poultry in Liaoning province. Shanghaiist.com, in their November 28 issue, offers a photo of an alleged formal government document giving instructions to suppress and control bird flu reporting.

Official Chinese sources put the number of deaths at two. Whether the Chinese government is engaged in a cover-up or the reporting system for H5N1 is vastly inadequate, the results are the same: under-reporting.

Under-reporting of bird flu infections in China and other Southeast Asian countries gives a false sense of security. The press frequently reports that fewer than 130 people have been infected with H5N1 avian flu and fewer than 70 have died worldwide. The low numbers are based on confirmed numbers only.

There are enormous problems in gathering accurate data, according to Dr. Shoshana Zimmerman of eHealth Institute and a founder of Bird Flu Beacon at http://birdflubeacon.com/

* Farmers reporting bird infections are likely to have their flocks killed and lose their livelihoods, even being left destitute.
* Few farmers and rural villagers have medical services.
* Doctors may be untrained in bird flu symptoms.
* Getting a sample to a lab for H5N1 analysis is cumbersome and expensive.
* Countries which report large scale outbreaks can expect to experience widespread panic and economic loss, as occurred with SARS.

“It is almost inconceivable that China should have only 2 bird flu deaths when thousands of workers are exposed to sick birds through China’s bird vaccination program. Under-reporting has worldwide implications, and is reminiscent of the flu epidemic of 1918 which killed 20-50 million people. In 1918 the public was given false assurances, and the threat minimized and under-reported until a pandemic could no longer be denied. Bird Flu Beacon was created to help make sure this does not happen again,” Dr. Zimmerman added.

About Bird Flu Beacon: For factual information, thoughtful analysis, and bird flu news you can trust go to http://www.birdflubeacon.com. The site features the latest bird flu news,a map tracking its path, and practical tips for lowering risk of infection or deal with bird flu if it comes to their hometowns. It also features a blog, http://bird-flu-blog.blogspot.com/ which reports news and commentary.

=



China reports new human bird flu case


<B><center>Tuesday 06 December 2005, 18:57 Makka Time, 15:57 GMT
<A href="http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/121A0B4D-81BD-4171-8802-56C17BF7B8FB.htm">Aljazeera.Net</a>

<font size=+1 color=red>Bird flu has killed more than 60 people in Southeast Asia</font>

A school girl in southern China is undergoing emergency treatment in hospital after contracting bird flu, becoming the fourth human case in the country, reports the state media.</b>

The 10-year-old girl surnamed Tang from Ziyuan County in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region developed fever and pneumonia-like symptoms on 23 November, the report said on Tuesday, adding that the ministry of health had confirmed the case.

Tests showed she was H5N1 positive, the agency said quoting China's Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.

It is the fourth confirmed human case of bird flu reported in China which has reported two deaths from the virus.

China has seen at least 30 outbreaks of bird flu in 11 provinces and regions this year, with nine of them in Xinjiang, according to the China Daily.

Bird flu has killed more than 60 people in Southeast Asia since 2003

=




<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Hearing On San Diego's Ability To Respond To Bird Flu</font>

Last Updated:
12-06-05 at 7:18AM
<A href="http://www.kfmb.com/stories/story.30081.html">News8::KFM</a></center>

The threat of a bird flu pandemic is raising concerns around the world, and government officials in San Diego are taking notice.</b>

The San Diego County Board of Supervisors will meet later today to discuss to prepare the city in case of a potential outbreak.

Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services warned individual states to formulate an emergency plan.

Federal health officials developed a checklist of 70 items, including establishing state and community stockpiles, designating a spokesperson to communicate in a crisis, and having a plan to contain an outbreak.

=




<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Ukraine lawmakers back state of emergency in bird flu-hit Crimea</font>

18:56 | 06/ 12/ 2005
<A href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20051206/42336789.html">RIA Novosti</a></center>

KIEV, December 6 (RIA Novosti) - The Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution Tuesday to impose a state of emergency in the Crimea, the Black Sea autonomy, in response to the recent bird flu outbreak. </b>

The bill passed in the Supreme Rada with 291 votes in favor of the state of emergency, with 226 votes required.

According to the law, President Viktor Yushchenko is required to submit a resolution to parliament outlining the borders of the area under the state of emergency, the terms of the emergency status, and the list of state and local self-governing bodies responsible for handling the problem.

Poultry imports from the autonomy were banned after a highly pathogenic strain of the bird flu virus was discovered in three Crimean districts Sunday. Mass vaccinations of the population are under way.

=




<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Public needs preparing for bird flu -experts</font>

Tue Dec 6, 2005 4:34 PM GMT
By Stephanie Nebehay
<A href="http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2005-12-06T163401Z_01_DIT659622_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BIRDFLU-COMMUNICATION.xml">today.rueters.co.uk</a></center>

GENEVA (Reuters) - Governments must do a better job of informing the public and media about bird flu, including warnings that antiviral drugs may not save them if an influenza pandemic breaks out, experts said on Tuesday.</b>

Margaret Chan, the top pandemic expert at the World Health Organisation (WHO), said that if the deadly H5N1 virus begins spreading more easily among people, "it will send a big wave of anxiety to communities".

"So the time to act, to have meaningful discussions and prepare them is now," Chan told a two-day meeting aimed at improving communication skills in health ministries and United Nations agencies.

"In a time of crisis, a government trusted by its people will have an easier task than one that does not," she added.

The H5N1 avian flu virus has infected more than 130 people in five Asian countries and killed 69 of them since late 2003. Experts fear the virus could mutate into a form which would circle the globe in months, killing millions in a pandemic.

The WHO has urged wealthier states to stock antivirals for about one-third of their population -- which could be hundreds of millions of doses.

But Klaus Stohr, head of the WHO's influenza programme, told the talks that the public should be reminded of the potential limitations of the drugs.

"We have no data whatsoever on antivirals reducing mortality. Governments are stockpiling antivirals. People expect that if they take Tamiflu, they are off the hook, they won't die -- which is not going to happen," said Stohr.

Swiss drugmaker Roche has donated three million treatment courses of its antiviral Tamiflu for the WHO to set up an international stockpile. This could be used as a "fire blanket" to try to contain outbreaks in poorer countries.

Antiviral drugs can reduce the severity and duration of seasonal influenza, but clinical data on their impact on human cases of H5N1 infection are limited.

Stohr later told Reuters that despite the uncertainties, Tamiflu was the "best bet" for now as work continues to develop a vaccine against a potential pandemic strain which may emerge.

"There are many things about the next pandemic we don't know. At this point H5N1 is the most likely candidate, but it could be H7 or H9," said Chan.

Chan, who headed Hong Kong's health department during a 1997 bird flu outbreak and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) crisis in 2003, said that the WHO faced some other dilemmas in drawing up guidelines for health ministries.

The most difficult issues were whether to recommend wearing masks during an outbreak and imposing exit and entry controls at borders to check for flu symptoms among travellers -- neither of which are scientifically justified -- according to Chan.

"We do have scientific answers. But my advice to heads of state and ministries is we really need to be guided by the sentiment of communities," she said.

=



<B><font size=+1 color=red><purple><center>US prepares for worst-case scenario with bird flu</font>

12-06-2005, 00h14
WASHINGTON (AFP)
<A href="http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=83635">www.turkishpress.com</a></center>


Turkeys are pictured on a rural farm in the United States. The federal authorities are preparing to face a possible avian flu pandemic in the United States by contemplating a worst-case scenario, under which more than 92 million people will become ill in the space of four months, US Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said. </b>
(AFP/File)

The federal authorities are preparing to face a possible avian flu pandemic in the United States by contemplating a worst-case scenario, under which more than 92 million people will become ill in the space of four months, US Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said.

The projections are based on the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic that killed about 50 million people around the world and emerged as the most serious pandemic of the 20th century.

"Because we want the assumptions to tease out and exercise the most severe case, the assumptions we are building on are primarily focused on the 1918 pandemic," the secretary told a meeting of officials from the 50 states and local governments, which focused on pandemic preparedness planning.

"The H5N1 virus we are concerned about currently resembles the triggering virus in 1918," he continued. "I will begin to use those planing assumptions in the development of models that will help us and you make decisions."

According to mathematical projections used by Washington, everything begins with an epidemic that breaks out in Thailand in a small village, where the H5N1 virus has hypothetically mutated and acquired the ability to transmit among humans.

This has not yet occurred. So far the virus has been jumping from birds to humans, but scientists believe it is just a matter of time before it learns how to move from human to human.

Bird flu has affected 130 people in Asia, with 69 of those cases being fatal.

Under the same catastrophic scenario, the epidemic will turn into a pandemic in just several weeks, spreading first in Asia before reaching Europe and the American continent 50 days later.

At the end of week six, Americans will see 722,000 pandemic cases in the United States, by week nine -- 37.4 million, by week 12 -- 90.8 million, and by the end of week 16, 92.2 million cases, according to Leavitt.

"The reality is ... pandemics happen," the secretary said. "When it comes to a pandemic, we are overdue and we are underprepared."

Does anyone have a clue on whatthis means:

"We do have scientific answers. But my advice to heads of state and ministries is we really need to be guided by the sentiment of communities," she said.

Click to expand...

It seems like waffling from someone arguing for openess and trust.

It also seems like an acknowledgement that central authority cant help local communities.

What bothers me most is the almost total lack of warnings that people may have to shelter-in-place for several months or more to avoid getting infected. Seems like the authorities should be suggesting now that people should begin gathering food and other essentials for such a purpose, just in case...

In the last few months the US government upped their recommendation from 3 days to 10 days worth of food and supplies. You mean that won't be enough? hahahaha.

I was just trying to imagine the world on my road with none of us leaving for 2 weeks. I've gotta get some more beer yeast........

I am still trying to discern the meaning of "sentiment of the community" as the basis for guidance for TPTB.

Is this referring to say anything to avoid a panic now (which postpones and intensifies a panic later?

Or does it mean spoon feed the gory details with as much as info as the populace can handle without panicing??


To me - there has to be some sort of panic avoidance strategy in play. Otherwise the WHO would have raised their zPandemic Level to 4 by now.


Oh and BTTT.