01/24 | New bird flu victim in China

Gayla

Membership Revoked
Suspected bird flu cases in northern Cyprus

NICOSIA (AFP) - Turkish Cypriot authorities have sent samples from two sick birds suspected of having bird flu to labs in Turkey and Britain for analysis.

If confirmed, they would mark the first cases of bird flu in Cyprus, the Mediterranean island which lies just several miles (kilometres) off Turkey, where the virus has already claimed four lives.

"The tests we made here point to the presence of some virus, but our laboratories are not capable of determining whether it is bird flu or not," a senior Turkish Cypriot official told AFP on Monday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060123/hl_afp/healthflucyprustrnc_060123160114
 

JPD

Inactive
A liitle more info on northern Cyprus:

North Cyprus Tests Dead Birds for Avian Flu

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/34636/story.htm

CYPRUS: January 24, 2006

NICOSIA - two suspected cases of avian flu were found on a farm in northern Cyprus, but it was early to say if it was the deadly H5N1 strain, Turkish Cypriot authorities said on Monday.


Samples from a dead turkey and a chicken were taken from close to Incircli, a village on the eastern part of the island which is also known by the Greek name Makrasykas,.

"There were two birds, one a turkey and one a chicken, and two suspicious deaths. Preliminary tests proved positive (for a form of bird flu)," said Turkish Cypriot health minister Esref Vaiz.

"We have announced it to the public and we are hiding nothing," he told Reuters, adding that it would take about two days for conclusive results to come from Turkey.

Poultry in the village was being slaughtered and all traffic going into the community was being disinfected, a Turkish Cypriot official said.

Cyprus lies just south of Turkey, where authorities say four people have died from the H5N1 bird flu virus this month. The H5N1 virus has killed at least 80 people in six countries since late 2003.

The island was partitioned in a Turkish invasion in 1974 triggered by a brief Greek inspired coup, but each side has separately taken identical measures to ward off avian influenza.


REUTERS NEWS SERVICE
 

JPD

Inactive
Afghanistan at ‘huge risk’ of bird flu: UN

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Di...=January2006&file=World_News2006012425054.xml

Web posted at: 1/24/2006 2:50:54
Source ::: AFP

KABUL: War-shattered Afghanistan faces a huge risk from bird flu, including a strain that can kill people, and must take urgent action to protect itself, UN experts said yesterday.

The Central Asian country is on the path of migrating birds that may be carrying the disease and about 85 per cent of its people live in close contact with poultry, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said. Afghanistan’s veterinary services were also in disarray, having been ignored in the rebuilding of the country after decades of war.

“As Afghanistan is at the overlapping of several migratory routes, there is a high possibility the country could be infected. We couldn’t say it is inevitable but the risk is huge,” the FAO representative in Afghanistan, Serge Verniau, said. “If no action is taken immediately, the risk will increase,” Verniau said at a briefing at Qargha Lake, a stopover for migrating birds about 10km outside the capital Kabul.

“The enemy is at the gate.” The FAO proposed a programme that included strengthening animal disease surveillance and laboratory facilities, raising public awareness and preparing an emergency plan in case of an outbreak.
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>H5N1 Kocyigit Ozcan Cluster Continues to Grow</font>

<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01230601/H5N1_Kocyigit_Ozcan_Grows.html">Recombinomics Commentary</a>
January 23, 2006</center>
Dr. Onbaþý, Agri Doðubayazýt district former evening hour kuþ gribi (bf) suspect brought to 16 year old Murat Özcan, hospital hayatýný kaybeden(?) Fatma Özcan relative happened, sick child department put under treatment registered.</b>

The above translation suggests another Ozcan (16 year-old Murat) has been admitted to Van. The latest patient, like the six transferred to Igdir State Hospital, are also related to Fatma Ozman, the latest confirmed H5N1 fatality in Turkey.

As listed in the Kocyigit / Ozcan timeline, the list of family members admitted and/or confirmed H5N1 cases continues to arise. Although media reports cite exposure to chickens of some sort, the size and reach of the familial clusters indicate the transmission involves more than exposure to sick chickens.

Since Murat Ozkan is not listed among prior Ozcan family members admitted, and the latest six to be admitted are to another hospital, it seems likely that the case above is a member of a sixth family. At least five of these six families are related to Fatma Ozcan.. Three other family members have died and three others also remained hospitalized after testing positive for H5N1. Nine other family members have been admitted and released and an additional seven have just been admitted. Thus, the total number of hospitalized patients related to Fatma Ozcan is 23, in addition to two hospitalized Ozcans that may be related.

The disease onset dates suggest that considerable human-to-human transmission could have happened within the various clusters. However,. it is also possible that further transmission occurred between clusters. The Kocyigit family had the Ozcan family over for dinner on December 24, which created opportunities for H5N1 transmission between the families.

Similarly, the burial of Fatma Ozcan on January 16, 2006 could have created additional H5N1 exposures. Hatice Ozman attended the burial and she had just been released from Van hospital. The criteria for releases are unclear. The test for H5N has been repeatedly shown to be unreliable. All four fatal cases initially tested negative for H5N1. Others who had been hospitalized with symptoms, including Ali Hasan Kocyigit and Hatice Ozman have yet to be added to the confirmed list of H5N1 infected patients.

It is unclear how many, if any of the seven Ozcan’s recently admitted attended the burial of their cousin Fatma Ozcan, but the burial would appear to offer the opportunity of direct or indirect transmission of H5N1 to these newly admitted patients.

As the Kocyigit / Ozcan cluster continues to grow and involve more relatives in more families, the role of dead or frozen chickens in the transmission of H5N1 between these family members becomes less obvious.
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Pandemic flu: Prepare now</font>

By James C. Greenwood
January 24, 2006
<A href="http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20060123-093305-2019r.htm">www.washtimes.com</a></center>
As the world responds to the recent news of the spread of avian flu virus (H5N1) in Turkey, it is now more apparent than ever that we must aggressively prepare for an influenza pandemic at home and abroad. </b>

As of Jan. 10, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 78 deaths due to avian flu and 147 confirmed human cases in six countries. Infected fowl have been found in at least 14 countries. To date, the virus has not demonstrated easy human-to-human transmission. But should this occur, the spread around the globe likely would be fast -- possibly within three months, according to WHO.

The biotechnology industry is working aggressively to make available promising life-saving vaccines, antivirals and diagnostics, and we are excited about the progress to date. However, we face significant challenges. We have seen critical aspects of our public health infrastructure stagnate or decline over the years, including the dramatic reduction in the number of influenza vaccine manufacturers.

Simply put, we currently do not have the capacity to provide all Americans a vaccine in an emergency.

Our race against time puts us at a further disadvantage. We do not know when a pandemic may arise, or exactly what the virus would look like, but we must begin preparing for one immediately. Having life-saving medicines available too late is simply ineffective and not acceptable.

There are practical consequences to these challenges. Industry is working closely with regulators to develop the safest and most effective products possible. But because of the ability of viruses to mutate unpredictably, to become deadly, and to spread quickly, we most likely will not have time for years of clinical trials against any specific pandemic strain. Decisions on use of these countermeasures will need to be made with the best information available, recognizing they likely would be our greatest -- and perhaps only -- defense to a virus that could kill or seriously injure millions of Americans.

In advance of a pandemic and without government support, there would be no market to sell these products. And the risk of debilitating liability due to known and unforeseen side effects during wide-scale use in an emergency presents a strong disincentive for the creation of these products. The reality is that most companies simply cannot responsibly invest hundreds of millions of dollars to develop products for which there is no market and for which they'll be bear massive liability exposure.

For these reasons, the recent emergency legislation proposed by the president and approved by Congress was absolutely necessary to enhance the availability and acceptance of these life-saving products. It provides a significant level of short-term funding for the development, production and stockpiling of pandemic countermeasures, and it establishes a process for providing compensation to individuals who suffer injuries that may be caused by such products. It also responsibly protects manufacturers, doctors and others from frivolous lawsuits relating to their participation in this program at the government's request. The need for these types of reforms has broad bipartisan support.

The good news is that with sufficient support, science can save lives.

Additionally, the synergies and value beyond preparing for pandemic influenza are enormous. An expanded domestic vaccine production capacity and new
technologies fostered through pandemic influenza preparedness can facilitate the development and availability of additional vaccines and antivirals for other infectious diseases, such as seasonal influenza, childhood diseases and HIV.

The federal government must act expeditiously to implement the emergency pandemic preparedness legislation passed last month by Congress. It represents a necessary first step to demonstrate to manufacturers and the public that the government is taking strong actions to enhance public health emergency preparedness and to protect our national security. This must be followed by additional reforms to improve the development and approval process of products essential for national security and to demonstrate the federal government's long-term commitment that is necessary to sustain private sector involvement in this critical public health area.

James C. Greenwood is president and CEO of the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) in Washington, D.C., which represents more than 1,100 biotechnology companies, academic institutions, state biotechnology centers and related organizations in all 50 U.S. states and 31 other nations. He is a former Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives.
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Efforts Called to Prevent Avian Flu</font>

Xinhua News Agency
January 24, 2006
<A href="http://www.china.org.cn/english/government/156155.htm">www.china.org.cn</a></center>
Chinese Vice-Premier Hui Liangyu Monday called for continuous efforts throughout China to prevent and control avian flu in the coming Spring Festival and in the early spring.</b>

Addressing a meeting on prevention and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza, the vice-premier called on officials attending the meeting to have a sober-minded understanding of the situation of the fight against the bird flu during the traditional Chinese Lunar New Year period and the early spring.

He also called for understanding of the long-term and arduous nature of the prevention and control of the bird flu, and efforts to ensure chicken products available on the markets are sufficient in quantity and reliable in quality during the lunar New Year period which begins on Jan. 29.

China has made great progress in its fight against the avian flu during the past year and the outbreaks has been brought under control.

China reported 32 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks from January to December 2005 in 13 provinces, leaving a total of 154,600 birds dead and 22,571,200 culled, according to an official report delivered to a recent International Pledging Conference on Avian and Human Pandemic Influenza convened in Beijing.

Quarantine has been lifted in 31 affected areas in China, the report said.

Demand and consumption of poultry products would soar during the New Year holiday and early spring while migratory birds would begin their northern ward movement, posing new challenges to the country's efforts to prevent and control of the avian flu.

He required governments at various levels to increase their capability to monitor, prevent and control possible avian flu, including improved quarantine measures, increased use of vaccines, and better rapid-reaction mechanism.

(Xinhua News Agency January 24, 2006)
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Turkish bird flu outbreak shows speed the essence in pandemic: WHO</font>

Published: 1/23/2006
<A href="http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=104756">www.turkishpress.com</a></center>
GENEVA - The head of the World Health Organisation on Monday warned that the outbreak of bird flu in Turkey shows that the globe would have little time to react to a potential pandemic of human influenza.

"The unique feature in the Turkey situation was the unexpected appearance of human cases of avian influenza," Lee Jong-wook told a meeting of the WHO's executive board. </b>

Turkish authorities on Monday said that the outbreak which struck there earlier this month appeared to be fading.

The last person confirmed to have been infected with the H5N1 avian influenza virus in Turkey was on January 17.

In all 21 cases have been diagnosed in the country since January 4, with four -- all of them children -- dying in hospital in the eastern city of Van. The last to succumb to the disease was a 16-year-old girl on January 15.

"The Turkey experience demonstrates the dangers posed by avian influenza in birds and the vital importance of surveillance and effective early warning systems," said Lee.

"It also reiterates the threat of a pandemic of influenza in humans. A pandemic could arise with little or no warning from the animal side."

Most of those who had been infected are thought to have contracted H5N1 by coming into contact with sick backyard chickens.

Lee praised Turkish authorities and the rest of the international community for their rapid reaction to the crisis.

Samples from patients were analysed in Britain within a day and 100,000 doses of anti-flu drug were delivered at similar speed after the first cases were confirmed, he noted.

The Turkish bird flu fatalities were the first outside the Far East, where the disease has claimed some 80 lives since 2003.

There are rising fears that the H5N1 virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily from human-to-human, rather than just from birds to people, leading to a massive global outbreak like those which killed ten of millions in the last century.

"Concern has been expressed that we are overplaying this threat. We are not," said Lee.

"We can only reduce the devastating human and economic impact of a pandemic if we all take the threat seriously now and prepare thoroughly. This is a global problem."
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>‘Prepare for worst if bird flu strikes’</font>

By Carla Delaney
January 23 2006
<A href="http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/business/display.var.676658.0.prepare_for_worst_if_bird_flu_strikes.php">www.thisislocallondon.co.uk</a></center>
Businesses who ignore bird flu warnings are running the risk of ruining the health of their businesses says the boss of Business Link.

Chief Executive Graeme Finch ordered his own organisation to have staff crisis planning meetings this week to work out flu pandemic strategies and urged other businesses to do the same.</b>

Mr Finch says businesses are foolish to ignore reports that the virus is spreading and advised companies to limit economic loss by planning for the worst and investing in crisis training.

He urged caution adding: "Adopt a common-sense approach and review your current risk assessments.

"Identify and en-courage homeworking wherever possible, tele and video conferencing can be used to replace face-to-face meetings.

"Prepare for a depleted workforce by training employees in unfamiliar roles so that they can provide necessary cover."

Latest reports estimate that the virus could have a worse impact than a terrorism attack with up to half of staff falling ill. Yet, the majority of businesses are said to be ignoring warnings.

Bird Flu Business threats include:

- Staff shortage through employees taking time off ill, to care for others, or to avoid infection
- Difficulty in finding cover for absent staff
- Cost of stringent health and safety policies and procedures for preventing spread of the virus
- Public transport disruption making it difficult or impossible for staff to get to work
- Cost of home-working for those unable to attend work
- Disruption to supply chain
- Disruption to business travel, especially by air

According to research by business advice network, Croner, which has offices in the Thames Valley, employers are failing to recognise the financial blow that bird flu could have on their businesses.

They are accused of being slow to make contingency plans.

Richard Smith, employment services director, is mystified that many of his clients are underestimating or unconcerned about the potential impact of the virus.

"No one really knows whether the virus will become a pandemic, but after the recent UN warning that the virus is spreading, we're advising employers to be prepared for the worst.

"Businesses should evaluate all real and perceived risks to their organisation.

"While it may be more front of mind to prepare for other threats such as terrorism, a pandemic could cause even greater disruption."

Business Link is offering to help businesses in doubt. Call 01844 210430 or visit the website at www.hse.gov.uk
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Masks at frontline of defence </font>

23.01.06
<A href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10364914">www.nzherald.co.nz</a></center>
Face masks are expected to form a key defence against the spread of a bird flu pandemic, although uncertainties remain about their use.

* Human influenza is spread from person to person mainly by large droplets, containing virus, sneezed and coughed out by an infected person. </b>

* Washing hands with soap, alcohol-based or antiseptic cleanser - and drying them - are considered the most important ways of reducing the risk of spreading any infectious organisms between people.

* Various disposable masks are available from pharmacies, hardware stores and medical goods suppliers.

* The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends use of N95 respiratory masks or well-fitted standard surgical masks.

* N95 masks filter out smaller particles than surgical masks do and can be used for longer, but are harder to breathe through. N95 masks with a exhalation vent are easier to breathe through than those without, but are considered unsuitable for people who have flu.

* One supplier sells surgical masks for just over 20c each ($10.13 for a pack of 50). N95 prices quoted to the Herald range from $1.88 each ($37.75 for a box of 20) at a pharmacy to $5.48 each ($10.95 for a pack of two) at a hardware store.

* The Health Ministry says that in a flu pandemic people with flu symptoms, such as fever, headache and coughing, should consider using a disposable surgical mask to avoid exposing others to flu virus.

* Masks must be appropriately disposed of once wet and hands then washed and dried.

* The ministry recommends increasing levels of protection depending on the risks: from disposable surgical masks for "first responders" like ambulance officers, health workers or support people in the community, to higher-level masks, goggles, gloves and gown for hospital staff performing invasive procedures on flu patients, such as putting them on a ventilator.

* Senior public health adviser Dr Andrea Forde says the role of masks will not be fully known until a pandemic occurs, when the virus' characteristics will be clearer. Sick people will be urged to wear a mask in public but it is unknown if they should do so at home. People with breathing difficulty cannot be left wearing a mask.

* The WHO says mask-wearing by the general population is not expected to have much impact on flu transmission, "but should be permitted, as this is likely to occur spontaneously".

* Cough "etiquette". During a pandemic people should keep a distance of 1m from others, cover their mouth when coughing or sneezing, use disposable tissues over their mouth and nose, put used tissues in a rubbish bin and wash and dry their hands immediately.

* Large public gatherings should be avoided and any social contact with infected people should be avoided if possible.

* Windows should be opened for ventilation or a good air-conditioning system used.

* Employers are urged to put up glass or perspex barriers to protect the likes of supermarket check-out staff and bus drivers.
 
gosh

and how does this compare to traffic accidents?


what a plague.


and some scoff at warnings of climate change


witness the current artic storm sweeping Russia and parts of Europe, which so far has claimed more fatalities than all the bird flu deaths combined, over several years.


and some claim we are blowing things out of proportion?


kind of like all the "terror" reports over the last several years that killed maybe a coupla hundred people,


total?


and what did the Great Sumatra EQ claim?



so far I don't see a great Bird Flu plague, just as we all did not see a great Sars epidemic.



when I see it spread I will fear it.

but right now, and for the last 10 years, Climate Change has claimed far, far more victims.


Prepare
 

Nuthatch

Inactive
Uh, ds, prepare is what folks are saying on this thread. Interestingly enough, traffic accidents do not have an opportunity to expand in short order exponentially.

Yes, there are other tragedies that are greater....AIDS, Earthquakes, starvation. This flu has the potential of hitting those of us who are healthy in non-earthquake locales. In other words, there would be no area spared, IF......

As you said: "Prepare"
 
=




<B><center>Bermuda
Last modified: January 24. 2006 11:46AM

<font size=+1 color=red>Pandemic plan being prepared</font>

By Scott Neil
<A href="http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060124/NEWS/101240138">www.theroyalgazette.com</a></center>
Bermuda is gearing up to respond to a feared world-wide bird flu pandemic caused by the possible mutation of the current avian flu H5N1 virus.

A committee is being set up to ensure the Island is prepared should the avian flu virus that has decimated birds across Asia and has now spread to Europe cross-over to become a contagious illness amongst people.</b>

The committee’s role will be to put in place a clear plan of action involving emergency services and essential workers to safeguard the day-to-day running of the Island should a human form of the virus take hold.

More than 80 people have died around the world since the resurgence of the virus in 2003. The deaths have been confined to victims in close contact with infected birds.

“To date there has been no instance of the virus being transferred from one person to another, which would present the possibility of a global pandemic.
“If we are hit by a pandemic there may be requirements that people who are sick do not go to work or to large gatherings. Church services may be affected or suspended. This committee is to ensure that we are being equitable and fair,” said Chief Medical Officer Dr. John Cann.

He explained that different sectors of the community including the Health Ministry, businesses and the Government, were now involved in contingency planning should the bird flu become a human-to-human virus.

“The World Health Organisation has warned countries that a pandemic is probable and may be imminent. There is no guarantee that it will happen in the next few months or years. But WHO has said that countries must start planning,” said Dr. Cann.

“It is a requirement to start planning so that we can quickly coordinate things. We are in the process of getting the various participants to serve on the committee. The forward planning in most of the sectors has already begun.”

Feral chickens and fowl that wander freely in various locations around the Island are not regarded as a major cause for concern for contracting the avian flu that has spread westwards from Southeast Asia and has now reached Turkey.

“There is a committee working on the feral chicken problem but, in all reality, Bermudians do not live with their chickens like they do in Asia,” said Dr. Cann. “For our birds to become a problem they would have to become infected by a migratory bird, but even then it would be unlikely that someone would become infected, so it is not a likely scenario.

“It’s more likely that a Bermudian would become infected while overseas, or that someone visiting the Island will bring the virus here.”

It is envisaged that the committee will have oversight to coordinate all the plans once they have been developed, according to Dr. Cann.

He said raising of awareness of a potential pandemic amongst the different sectors of the community was already in progress.

“The next step is to ensure that plans are coordinated and there is a line of command to see they are carried out. The intent is to avoid any confusion about who is going to have particular responsibilities and identifying where there needs to be clear authority,” he added.

Health Minister Patrice Minors, said: “We’ll have a committee so that we can be in a state of preparedness for the avian flu, which is progressing into the European nations although there is as yet no human-to-human transmission.

“The committee’s role would be to have a policy in place with regard to our preparedness, and that involves the hospital, the departments of the environment and immigration, the Police, garbage collection, the fire service and others.”

She said talks have already been held between the Health Ministry and the King Edward VII Memorial Hospital about the setting up and objectives of the committee.

No vaccine can be created to combat a human-to-human version of the flu until the virus has actually mutated to become a threat to humans. Only then would scientists be able to see how it might be combated.
 
=


<B><center>New Zealand

<font size=+1 color=brown>Grieving at home in flu scenario </font>

25.01.06
By Errol Kiong
<A href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10365233">www.nzherald.co.nz</a></center>
The dead are unlikely to be cremated during a bird flu pandemic, and body bags will be used if caskets run out.

A draft plan is being finalised this week by the Funeral Directors Association, Government agencies and local authorities to deal with the projected number of casualties.</b>

It will see a prohibition on public funerals in a bid to curb the spread of disease.

Simon Manning, the association's chairman of pandemic planning, said no church services or tangi will take place, as public funerals were a factor in Spanish flu's spread in 1918. Grieving will instead take place in the home.

Any death during a pandemic - bird flu or not - would be dealt with within 48 hours, said Mr Manning.

New Zealand does not have enough freezing capacity to deal with a projected 33,000 deaths, so the 48-hour period allows for bodies to be handled safely and interred without refrigeration.

Mr Manning said cremation is unlikely because two doctors are required to sign off the cremation papers; one of which will need to be the deceased's doctor. During a widespread pandemic, locating them may prove difficult, he said.

The police may also need to disinter the body where suspicious circumstances arise after the pandemic, he said.

There are also question marks around the supply of piped gas to crematoriums.

The association has approached the Government about providing funeral grants worth about $4500 to cover the cost of each burial.

"It will be unreasonable, we believe, for families to be ending up with a bill for something that they haven't necessarily requested," said Mr Manning.

While cemeteries have the capacity, there may not be enough caskets for all bodies.

In 1918, canvas was used to wrap the dead when caskets ran out. Mr Manning said body bags, which are more sanitary and easier to handle, would be used.

Funeral Directors Association members, which look after 85 per cent of deaths in New Zealand, have also been told to train extra staff over the next 12 months.

Members have been told to calculate the workforce needed for their own companies based on projected workload and a 60 per cent absenteeism rate.

Mr Manning's Harbour City Funeral Home in Wellington has 15 staff, but he is looking at having 100 extra casuals trained up for a pandemic. Training will start now, and will include an explanation of what they're likely to encounter during a pandemic, he said.

Mr Manning said if someone dies at home during a pandemic, the first thing to do is to contact a funeral director.

* * *

Best advice: Wash and dry your hands

The series in the Herald preparing the public for the possibility of a bird flu epidemic is highly recommended reading.

One message worth emphasising is that community awareness of hygiene issues, particularly hand hygiene, will have a major impact on limiting the spread of the disease.

A statement that human influenza virus is spread from person to person mainly by an infected person coughing or sneezing needs qualifying.

Much of the present evidence on the spread of respiratory infections suggests that touch contact with a virus contaminated object or surface and the subsequent transfer of the virus to receptive tissues is the more common way for the virus to be spread.

Picture an infected person smothering a sneeze with a hand and then picking up a phone, opening a door, using a bank keyboard or shaking hands. The likelihood of an infectious dose of virus been transferred to the next user is high.

Community recognition of the role of hand hygiene in breaking this cycle will be extremely important. The key is a 20-second wash under running tap water followed by careful and conscientious hand drying. Our research has shown that moisture on the hands greatly enhances the opportunity for microbial transfer and acquisition through touch contact.

Hand hygiene is therefore a two-step process and leaving the washroom with wet hands is inviting the transfer of tens of thousands of micro-organisms at the next point of hand contact.

The Ministry of Health's advice to wash and dry hands regularly and carefully is a message that will need constant reinforcement.

Dr Tom Miller,

Department of Medicine

University of Auckland

Death during a pandemic
* If someone dies at home, contact your funeral director, who will get the death certificate, and arrange for the body's transportation, and burial.

* Burial, as against cremation, will most likely be used.

* Cremation requires two doctors to sign off cremation papers. One of them will need to be the deceased's doctor, and locating them may be difficult when medical resources are stretched.

* A death may happen in suspicious circumstances, and police may need to disinter a body to gather evidence. Evidence is destroyed during cremation.

* Question marks also remain over the supply of piped gas to fire the crematoriums.

* There are enough funeral plots for the projected 33,000 dead, but there may not be enough caskets. If caskets run out, body bags will be used.
 
=





<B><center>01/24/06

<font size=+1 color=blue>WHO Says Possible Bird Flu Pandemic Not Exaggerated </font>

By Lisa Schlein, VOA, Geneva
<A href="http://www.payvand.com/news/06/jan/1197.html">www.payvand.com</a></center>
The Director-General of the World Health Organization, Lee Jong-Wook, says the risk of an avian influenza pandemic is real and not exaggerated. Dr. Lee told delegates attending a week-long conference that the threat must be taken seriously and action to prevent a pandemic from occurring must be intensified. </b>

WHO Director-General, Lee Jong-Wook, rebuffs suggestions that the World Health Organization is exaggerating the risk of a bird flu pandemic that could potentially kill millions of people around the world.

"Concern has been expressed that we are overplaying this threat. We are not. We can only reduce the devastating human and economic impact of a pandemic if we all take the threat seriously now and prepare thoroughly. This is a global problem," he said.

The World Health Organization predicts between two and 7.4 million people could die from a bird flu pandemic.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed at least 80 people in six countries since late 2003. Until recently, all of these deaths occurred in Asian countries. But, recently, the disease was transmitted from infected birds to humans in Turkey. WHO reports more than 20 people in Turkey have been infected with the disease. Of these, four children have died.

Dr. Lee says the situation in Turkey is unique. He says the appearance of human cases of avian influenza in that country was unexpected. This is different from Asia where outbreaks of the H5N1 virus were detected in poultry well before the virus occurred in humans.

The WHO Chief says there was almost no prior warning of infection in poultry in the eastern part of Turkey.

"The Turkey experience demonstrates the dangers posed by avian influenza in birds and the vital importance of surveillance and effective early warning systems," said Dr. Lee. "It also reiterates the threat of a pandemic of influenza in humans. A pandemic could arise with little or no warning from the animal side."

Dr. Lee says the recent experience shows how fast both governments and the international community can move in a crisis. He notes within one day, samples from patients in Turkey were collected, shipped, and received in Britain. He says the results were available within 24 hours.

The World Health Organization reports that human cases seem to be going down in Turkey following a mass cull of poultry and a public education campaign.

The World Health Organization says experts will help several neighboring countries at risk of getting bird flu to assess the situation. They include Syria, Iran, Iraq, Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
 
=




<B><center>Tuesday, January 24, 2006

<font size=+1 color=brown>Sorry, dear, all we've got is corn niblets </font>

<A href="http://www.eastbayri.com/story/354992133482943.php">www.eastbayri.com</a></center>
Around a month ago 60 minutes aired a segment on the potential spread of the avian flu. Already documented in portions of Southeast Asia where it spread from birds to people, world health officials feared it could become much more dangerous if it began spreading from person to person. </b>

That jump, officials said, may or may not occur, so just in case everyone, including folks here in the East Bay, should begin preparing for a worst-case scenario.

National newspapers have listed helpful guides to readying oneself for an avian flu outbreak, which some compare potentially to the flu pandemic of 1918 where hundreds of thousands of people died in the United States.

So what are you supposed to do?

From what I've learned, you should be ready to live completely self-sufficiently for around a month. That means no trips to the market or the mall or work or school or even church. Anywhere people gather will likely become "off-limits." Instead you should be ready to live house-bound for a while.

That's not so bad, I thought. I'll catch up on some projects I've fallen behind on, and even read those books I've had shelved for the last few months. The only downside is avoiding everyone else — and everything they supply — for quite some time. Eating out is out of the picture, as are the movies. Regular television will have to do, and maybe you should stockpile some DVDs or videos. I'm not sure the mail will remain consistent, but that's not so bad, considering all I get is junk catalogs and bills.

I'll probably miss my family and friends, but there's always the phone, and since we're not getting any bills we can talk for an extra long time.

Take-out pizza is gone, and I'll have to get consistent about brewing my own coffee. Other than that, this bird flu thing doesn't sound so bad. As a matter of fact, now I wouldn't even feel guilty if I slept in and missed church — it's all about survival, I'll tell myself.

I was so excited about getting ready for a month at home — so long as we don't lose power, the television doesn't break and the water keeps running — that I jumped feet first into preparing. I told my wife about my plans and she pretty much ignored me. She was busy doing something much more important than preparing for a pandemic, apparently, like making a grocery list, and all she could do was nod her head as I read aloud from the newspaper article.

"We're supposed to have supplies stored up," I said.

She smiled and asked if we needed any half-and-half. Well, needless to say, I've taken the point in our household in preparing for the bird flu. I cleared some shelves in the basement and began stacking canned goods and bottled water — hopefully enough to last a month. I called my dad and read the article to him. I told him about my plan and steps I had taken. He sounded serious about starting his own preparations. I asked him if he was keeping anything really good in his bird flu survival storeroom.

"Oh, you've got to have Spam," he said. "You can live off that stuff."

I made a note and then went back to work.

All was going well until Sunday, when my wife's friend called. She had apparently been clued into my plan for the bird flu.

"So, how's your fall-out shelter going?" she asked.

"Uh, it's going fine. We've got a little water flooding the basement right now, but you can still get to the canned goods," I said.

I handed the phone over to my wife and started to leave the room when I heard my wife snickering.

"Yeah, and you'd better like corn niblets or you're in big trouble," she said.

Looks like those two will be finding their own dinner when the flu hits.

By Josh Bickford
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
dragonslayer2001 said:
and how does this compare to traffic accidents?


what a plague.


and some scoff at warnings of climate change


witness the current artic storm sweeping Russia and parts of Europe, which so far has claimed more fatalities than all the bird flu deaths combined, over several years.


and some claim we are blowing things out of proportion?


kind of like all the "terror" reports over the last several years that killed maybe a coupla hundred people,


total?


and what did the Great Sumatra EQ claim?



so far I don't see a great Bird Flu plague, just as we all did not see a great Sars epidemic.



when I see it spread I will fear it.

but right now, and for the last 10 years, Climate Change has claimed far, far more victims.


Prepare

DS, it's like watching a 'Tom Clancy' novel unfold... Check out what's happening on 'Reunion Island', where that French guy returning from Thailand, got off the plane a couple of months ago... Hmmm

It's percolating... watch how the virus recombines... and the PTB try to quash the stories... etc.

As for prepping, well, we should all be anyways... be it watching out for terrorists, bird flu or whatever... That's one thing the vast majority of us here do have in common.

So, it may not be panic level yet, in your neighborhood, but it may be comming. :sht:

:vik:
 
=




<B><center><font size=+1 color=purple>Experts warn DEFRA to be prepared for avian flu </font>

Source: FWI 24 January 2006
<A href="http://www.first4farming.com/F4F/news/index.jhtml;jsessionid=UFY3LKOVZKVBZWKNAZSSFEQ?article_id=fwi91935">www.first4farming.com</a></center>
DEFRA has been urged to bring forward its bird flu contingency planning exercise to ensure the UK is fully prepared for an outbreak of the disease during the impending spring migration.

Experts tracking the disease believe the risk of spread to the UK is highest during the migratory period. </b>

Writing to DEFRA secretary Margaret Beckett, Tory shadow minister for agriculture Jim Paice expressed his astonishment that a government exercise to review contingency plans for a national outbreak was not set to take place until after the birds had arrived.

Exercise Hawthorn will begin on 5 April, with the subsequent report not published until the summer.

Mr Paice urged: Any simulation to test the UK's preparedness for an outbreak must take place immediately.

John Widdowson, vice-chairman of the British Free Range Egg Producers Association, agreed that it should be carried out earlier, but not at the expense of it being carried out properly.

He added that there was confusion over the risks of migrating birds.

There is a lot of conflicting evidence on whether migrating birds are responsible for the virus spread. DEFRA's ongoing surveillance of wild birds has so far found no H5N1 and only one bird had the low pathogenic subtype.

But in the same week, French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin announced that France would hold its national bird flu readiness exercise in March.

A regional exercise would take place in February.

French authorities have also taken action to extend the area covered by a ban on outdoor poultry to two-thirds of the country.

This is in addition to the existing ban on feeding poultry outside and these measures will run until the end of May.
 

Nuthatch

Inactive
from www.voanews.com

Bird Flu Computer Database Helps Scientists Develop a Vaccine​
By Deborah Block
Washington, DC
24 January 2006


A computer database in the United States is helping researchers find a human vaccine for the bird flu virus -- a disease that kills domesticated fowl, but could mutate to infect humans. The database is located at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the western state of New Mexico, where information on many types of flu, including avian viruses, has been compiled from scientists around the world.

During the past two years, a strain of the bird flu virus has spread from Asia to Eastern Europe, most recently in Turkey.


Humans are believed to contract bird flu only through close contact with infected birds, but scientists fear millions of people could die in the future if the virus combines with human flu strains and produces a new strain that is highly contagious to people.

Scientist Catherine Macken manages an influenza database at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico.

"If you have a single cell that's affected by the two types of viruses, they can mix and match,” she says. “So you'll get a new virus form that has some characteristics of a bird virus, some characteristics of a human virus, and if it managed to transmit human-to-human it's got bird characteristics that humans have never seen before, and it becomes very potent in terms of its effect on the human population."

The database keeps track of international bird flu research, which is important since the viruses change constantly.


Catherine Macken
"We provide a web interface for people to access the data,” Ms. Macken says. “We also developed tools that they can use to analyze the data. So the kind of people who would use it would be people at research institutions actually worldwide."

Scientists do not know exactly how avian viruses cross over to humans. Ms. Macken is doing research to try to figure that out.

"What I do is really look at avian viruses and get statistics on the avian viruses. I look at human viruses and get statistics on human viruses and then I make comparisons.


The findings are then tested in a laboratory using sequencing -- the genetic code of the viruses.

"You're looking for trends in the evolution of the sequences. You're looking for relationships between the sequences, says Ms. Macken. “For example, is the bird flu in Asia, as you see it in Thailand, anything like the bird flu in China?"

There are currently no available vaccines to prevent bird flu in humans and it remains a threat.
 

Nuthatch

Inactive
From CNN International Edition

O Tamiflu: Turning Christmas trees into flu drug
Needles contain high concentration of key ingredient​

By Marsha Walton
CNN



Monday, January 23, 2006 Posted: 1253 GMT (2053 HKT)

Brigitte Kiecken: "On a personal level, I'm scared; on a professional level, I'm terribly frustrated."

ST. CATHARINES, Ontario (CNN) -- After the holiday is over, some Christmas trees end up in landfills, others get a second gig as garden mulch.

But soon thousands may end up as part of a lifesaving drug.

The needles of pine, spruce and fir trees contain a fairly high concentration of shikimic acid, the main ingredient in Tamiflu. Countries all over the world are stockpiling the drug in anticipation of a bird flu pandemic.

Most shikimic acid is obtained from star anise, a cooking spice from a tree grown in China. Prices of the spice skyrocketed when anxiety over a the possibility of a human outbreak of avian flu escalated.

A small Canadian company, Biolyse Pharma Corp., is now processing thousands of discarded trees to retrieve the acid.

"It's an urgent matter, and we should be starting production -- not once the pandemic hits, but before that," said chemist Brigitte Kiecken, Biolyse's CEO.

The World Health Organization has confirmed nine cases of bird flu in China, six of them fatal, and advises people living in areas affected by bird flu to avoid contact with any birds, their feathers, feces or other waste.

Worldwide, the organization has confirmed 149 cases, 80 of them fatal and most of them in Asia. Turkish officials say they have confirmed around 20 cases in their country.

Biolyse has experience in creating drugs from plants. It produces paclitaxel, a drug taken by breast and lung cancer patients that is made from the needles of the Canadian yew bush.

Another Canadian company, Gro-Bark, is processing thousands of discarded trees and donating the needles to Biolyse. Gro-Bark workers usually chip trees and yard waste for sale as mulch and potting soil.

"It's interesting for us, different from the normal routine," said Jim Peterson of Gro-Bark. "We'll see where it leads us in the future; it could be something that could make a big difference for everyone."

But the global aspects of patents, pharmaceuticals and public health make the planning for a flu pandemic enormously complicated, whether it is surveillance, diagnosis or drug distribution.

Without preparation, "it will certainly be chaotic later," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert.

"People are sorting out things such as property rights and availability and transport of drugs across countries' lines," said Schaffner, chairman of the Department of Preventive Medicine and professor of infectious diseases at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee.

"There are concerns that when you have an emergency, if it's made in this country or any other, it will stay in this country -- we're not going to share. So people are trying to work out contingency plans to make sure there's a more equitable distribution."

The Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche holds the patent on Tamiflu. Biolyse is negotiating sales of shikimic acid, not the drug, to developing countries not covered by the Roche patent.

Biolyse's Kiecken said she believes more needs to be done.

"On a personal level, I'm scared, and on a professional level, I'm terribly frustrated," she said.

"Government and industry have to work together now. We've been warned for ample time, and it [a pandemic] is bound to happen."

Recent human deaths from bird flu outside East Asia, in Turkey, seem to have increased attention and preparations for a flu pandemic.

The European Union announced Wednesday it will add $20 million to the $100 million it pledged to fight bird flu. At a 80-country conference in Beijing, China, donors pledged $1.9 billion to try to stave off a pandemic.

I was absolutely entranced that there's a small company in Canada making this shikimic acid out of Christmas trees. I was ready to donate our own.
-- Vanderbilt University infectious disease expert Dr. William SchaffnerAnd Roche announced it is donating an additional 20 million doses of Tamiflu, enough for 2 million people, to the WHO. Those doses of the antiviral drug will be stored regionally, in developing countries determined by the WHO. Since 2004, Roche has donated enough Tamiflu to treat about 5.1 million people.

Vanderbilt's Schaffner said education, preparation and action at every level can help.

"I was absolutely entranced that there's a small company in Canada making this shikimic acid out of Christmas trees. I was ready to donate our own," he said. "That is something the company will have to work out, to see if their product will find a channel into the manufacture of Tamiflu, and I wish them very well."
 

cheesesteaks

Senior Member
I received this in my e-mail, does this guy have any credibility?

THIS IS A SPECIAL ALERT FROM BRIANSPREDION.COM, PLEASE FORWARD THIS EMAIL TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW, AS IT MAY SAVE LIFE'S.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Like my dream on January 5th 2006, the bird flu has mutated the ability to easily pass from human to human in Turkey, and there are now 14 cases of this bird flu in California right now...even the CDC confirms this...please read this now...it could be a matter of life and death.
 

JPD

Inactive
CDC Chief: Bird Flu 'Not Media Hype'

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,182682,00.html

Tuesday, January 24, 2006
By Daniel J. DeNoon

The bird flu news isn't encouraging, the head of the CDC said today.

The comments by CDC Director Julie M. Gerberding, MD, MPH, came at the opening of the 2006 National Influenza Vaccine Summit meeting of public health officials and vaccine manufacturers.

Preparation for a flu pandemic is only a small part of the meeting. But in her opening remarks, Gerberding stressed how seriously the CDC is taking the threat of a bird flu pandemic.

"This is not media hype. This is a real situation," Gerberding said. "And at CDC we are very focused on the possibility of pandemic with this virus or some unexpected virus."

An Evolving Virus

Bird flu — the virus known technically as H5N1 avian influenza — is evolving. Whether it will necessarily evolve into a pandemic flu virus depends on whether it gains the power to spread easily from person to person.

But only one thing is certain: Flu viruses are notoriously unpredictable.

"The strategic national stockpile does not contain a crystal ball," Gerberding said. "What we are hearing is not encouraging. We know the virus is on the move. It has moved on from the Vietnam clade [virus group] we made vaccine against."

Front Lines of the Flu Battle

The CDC director promised that if bird flu does start spreading among humans — anywhere on earth — the U.S. will not sit on its heels.

"If pandemic influenza is a threat anywhere in the world, it is a threat here," Gerberding said. "If anywhere in the world there appears to be person-to-person transmission, we will do everything we can do to quench the initial outbreaks. We will engage on the front lines."

Could the CDC and its international partners really succeed? Gerberding is cautiously optimistic.

"We believe if the virus is found in a small rural area, we would have a chance to quench it," she said. "But of course if it happened in a city, the chance of quenching it is pretty small."

If a Pandemic Strikes

If a bird flu pandemic breaks out, all is not lost. Gerberding says the initial plan would be to screen travelers and to quarantine those found to be infected.

"We are practicing this in airports around the country," she said.

There would, of course, be a race to produce a vaccine. But with current technology, that would take the better part of a year at least.

"Many of you would be working to slow illness and death while we work to get a vaccine," Gerberding told the audience of public health officials. "So we would be using our antiviral supply to treat those who can be isolated. Pubic health measures will be essential, especially distancing. There would be no meetings like this. And be prepared for early closing of schools. We will all be working from home."

Accurate information, Gerberding said, will be a key issue. Family doctors will be key players.

"We have learned from previous public health emergencies that the most important information providers are doctors," Gerberding said. "People want information from their own doctors. So we must get information from the source to these providers."

The Power of Seasonal Flu

Since 2003, bird flu has killed 82 people. Every year, seasonal flu kills 250,000 to 500,000 people worldwide.

About 36,000 Americans die of flu every year, noted J. Edward Hill, MD, president of the American Medical Association, who shared the podium with Gerberding.

"That is twelve 9/11s or 65 jumbo jets crashing each and every year," Hill said. "Those are incredibly high numbers that we can and must lower."

It's pretty unusual for the AMA, which represents fiercely independent U.S. doctors, to join forces with a government agency. But Hill said that it's time for private doctors to accept responsibility for public health.

"Physicians do public health one patient at a time," Hill said. "Every doctor's second specialty should be public health."

Increasing Public Knowledge

Hill called the flu vaccine one of the basic tools doctors use in their day-to-day work. He pledged the AMA's support in fixing the U.S. flu vaccine production and distribution system — and in increasing the number of people vaccinated each year.

"We have to do a better job of educating doctors and the public," Hill said. "In my private practice, I still see people every year suffering under the myth they will get flu if they get the flu vaccine. It is ridiculous, but not a small problem. Convincing them otherwise is hard."

Hard though it may be, Hill was more willing than Gerberding to predict that flu vaccination will go more smoothly next year than it did this year. But Gerberding said the CDC is committed to resolving all of the troublesome issues surrounding flu vaccination.

"The problems that we didn't solve this year, we want to take steps to solve in the future," she said. "It is frustrating to have year after year go by and still feel we are not meeting the public's expectations."

Gerberding said that the federal funds being spent on preparing for a possible bird flu pandemic won't be wasted if bird flu doesn't appear.

"Everything we are doing for pandemic flu will pay off for seasonal flu," she said.

By Daniel J. DeNoon, reviewed by Louise Chang, MD

SOURCES: 2006 National Influenza Vaccine Summit, Atlanta, Jan. 24-25, 2006. Julie M. Gerberding, MD, MPH, director, CDC. J. Edward Hill, MD, president, American Medical Association.
 
Top