12/03 Outbreak! Has Feared Mutation of H5N1 Arrived?

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<B><center>OUTBREAK!

<font size=+1 color=red>Has feared mutation of avian flu arrived?</font>
<font size=+0 color=purple>Doctors in Thailand, Indonesia see 1st signs of human-to-human spread</font>

Posted: December 2, 2005
10:10 p.m. Eastern
<A href="http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47720">© 2005 WorldNetDaily.com </a></center>

Officials in at least two nations now suspect the avian flu bug has mutated into a virus that is being transmitted from human to human – a development world health authorities have estimated could result in the deaths of tens of millions. </b>

Thai health officials have expressed concern that the country's two latest confirmed victims may be the beginning of the much feared human-to-human transmission.

Dr. Charoen Chuchottaworn, an avian-flu expert at the Public Health Ministry, said doctors reviewing the cases were alerted by the very mild symptoms present in both patients, neither of whom had had any recent contact with birds or poultry.

The doctors are unsure as to how either of the infected contracted the disease and have raised the possibility that the virus has traded its pathogenicity for ease of transmission.


Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the disease is spreading so rapidly, particularly in the capital of Jakarta, some health officials strongly suspect the long-dreaded mutation has already occurred.

"There are just too many people who have it," said one doctor. "In many cases, it is difficult to establish any contact with birds."

Another official said the flu has "spread all over the city."

The latest victim confirmed officially by the Ministry of Health is a 25-year-old woman. She was treated at Tangerang Hospital before being transferred to Sulianti Saroso. The woman had difficulty breathing and a breathing tube had to be inserted

The World Health Organization-sanctioned laboratory in Hong Kong has so far confirmed 13 bird flu cases in humans in Indonesia, with eight people dying from the virus.

Separately, Minister of Health Siti Fadila Supari said Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche had given Indonesia approval to produce its antiviral drug Tamiflu to fight bird flu in humans.

So far the government has relied on donors such as Singapore, Japan and Australia for its supply of Tamiflu

The government also said it would launch a yearlong operation against bird flu, involving the military, house-to-house checks and mass culls of birds across the country

"The president has said that until 2006, for one year, we will intensively eradicate bird flu virus," said Minister of Agriculture Anton Apriyantono.

He said the yearlong program would include weekly checks of backyard farms and larger farms in Greater Jakarta for infected birds

The Jakarta Animal Husbandry, Fisheries and Maritime Affairs Agency today destroyed some 500 chickens and pet birds in Utan Kayu, where a number of infected birds have been found.

From about 2,000 tests conducted by the agency in 30 of the capital's 267 subdistricts, dozens of infected birds were found in the subdistricts of Ceger, Utan Kayu, Pondok Kelapa, Duren Sawit and Cipinang Melayu, all in East Jakarta, as well as in Sunter Jaya and Cilincing in North Jakarta, Kapuk in West Jakarta, and Petojo in Central Jakarta.

With one small genetic adjustment in Influenza A, or H5N1, millions of people could die, warns World Health Organization Regional Director for the Western Pacific Shigeru Omi. Omi has called for health ministers and representatives to launch an all-out war on the deadly strain.

If the virus acquires sufficient human genes, allowing transmission from one person to another, an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million people around the world could die, the WHO estimates.

Some health officials make even more dire predictions. They point to the great flu pandemic of 1918-1919, which killed far more people worldwide than died in World War I – an estimated 40 to 50 million people.

There are more signs the virus is spreading – outward from Asia and through Europe. Romania appears to be the hardest hit.

Three more villages in eastern Romania have been quarantined following the discovery of an H5 strain of avian influenza in poultry in one of the villages. The Romanian Ministry of Agriculture suspects the presence of bird flu in the other villages but is awaiting confirmation of test results from the United Kingdom.




Culling has begun in the area, and authorities estimate that 9,500 birds will be killed.

Romanian Agriculture Minister Gheorghe Flutur said today that 10,000 birds have been slaughtered following the discovery this week of three cases of avian flu in the Danube Delta.

"The villages of Periprava as well as Dudescu and Bumbacari have been placed under quarantine and the soil has been disinfected," he told journalists. "We have also alerted the Ukrainian authorities, since the village of Periprava is only three kilometers (two miles) from the frontier."

Although the latest cases have been identified as the H5 variety, more tests are being carried out to find out if the virus belongs to the deadly H5NI strain that has killed more than 60 people in Asia and is feared as a possible source of a human flu pandemic.

A member of the national animal health authority, Florica Durlea, warned that the risk of avian flu remained, because new waves of migratory birds are expected as a result of mild temperatures.

The Danube Delta is a stopping off point for birds flying from central Asia and Russia.

So far, 12 outbreaks of bird flu have been detected in Romania.

In China, a team from the World Health Organization investigating the deaths from avian influenza said the extent of the problem in the country -- and elsewhere -- may be worse than initially thought.

Dick Thompson, a WHO spokesman in Geneva, told the New York Times, "In some cases the surveillance system may not be there. We're not nosing around, but we may be able to provide (China with) some technical expertise."

The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed at least 68 people in Asia since 2003.


U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt announced the purchase of additional vaccine that could be used in the event of a potential influenza pandemic.

The department has awarded a $62.5 million contract to Chiron Corp. to manufacture an avian influenza vaccine designed to protect against the H5N1 influenza virus strain. The number of individuals who could be protected by the newly contracted vaccine is still to be determined by ongoing clinical studies.

"An influenza vaccine effective against the H5N1 virus is our best hope of protecting the American people from a virus for which they have no immunity," said Leavitt. "This contract will increase our stockpile of the vaccine and is a continuation of our aggressive multi-pronged approach to a potentially critical public health challenge."

This purchase builds on the department's current plans to buy enough H5N1 influenza vaccine for 20 million people and enough influenza antivirals for another 20 million people. These supplies of vaccine and antiviral treatment will be placed in the nation's Strategic National Stockpile where they will be available for use should an influenza pandemic occur. Recently, HHS awarded a $100 million contract to sanofi pasteur, the vaccines business of the sanofi-aventis Group, for avian flu vaccine.

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Nurse suspected of contracting bird flu</font>

12/03/2005 - 8:43:48 AM
<A href="http://www.eecho.ie/news/bstory.asp?j=90661921&p=9x66z39x&n=90662420">Evening Echo: News</a></center>

Vietnamese health officials said today they suspect a nurse who cared for a bird flu patient has contracted the disease that has killed 46 people across Southeast Asia.</b>

Dao Trong Bich, deputy director of the medical centre in Thai Thuy District in northern Thai Binh province, said the woman had cared for a 21-year-old man who tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus and remains in critical condition.

The 41-year-old nurse, also from Thai Binh province, was hospitalised on Thursday in Hanoi with a high fever, coughing and a lung infection – typical bird flu symptoms.

Specimens have been taken from her for testing, and results are expected this week, the doctor said. She is in stable condition.

If tests confirm it, she would be the second Vietnamese health care worker to be sickened by the bird flu virus.

Bird flu has killed 33 people in Vietnam – 13 in the latest outbreak which began in December 2004. A Cambodian woman died earlier this year, while Thailand has reported 12 deaths.

Experts have warned that if the virus mutates into a form that can be easily transmitted between humans, it could spark a global pandemic that kills millions. There has been no evidence so far that the virus has changed its form.

Bich said health authorities are closely monitoring the health of two doctors and two other nurses at the centre who had contact with the 21-year-old man. None has shown any symptoms, he added.

The 21-year-old man is at the centre of a cluster of bird flu cases that include his 14-year-old sister and 80-year-old grandfather, who has the virus without showing any symptoms.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Jakarta: Avian Flu Virus 'All Over City'</font>

by J. Grant Swank, Jr.
Dec 2, 2005
<A href="http://www.postchronicle.com/news/health/article_2121632.shtml">The Post Chronicle</a></center>

Fear is spreading. So is the bird flu.

In Jakarta, the Indonesian capital, officials admit that "it's very serious. Based on our research, the virus has spread all over the city."</b>

In Tien Giang province, a man was taken to the hospital when saying he had a high fever, the AP reports. He was then taken to isolation. However, he said he needed to get some personal belongings back at his home.

He left the hospital and never returned. Before leaving hospital care, he informed the staff that he had become ill after he had slaughtered his bird flu sick poultry.

More than millions of birds have been killed in Indonesia due to the infection.

Indonesia has not been all that open with some of its detail nor willing to "carry out mass slaughters, citing a lack of money. But affected farmers were Friday offered some compensation."

In Indonesia's 30 provinces, 23 have been found to have the H5N1 virus. Seven humans have died from the virus.

The President stated to media last week that "domestic Tamiflu production was needed as the country's current inventory was insufficient."

Even then, no one can prove that the mutant virus would be overcome with any vaccine now available. Scientists are working to locate such a vaccine; however, it is difficult to predict the constituency of the mutant virus and thereby difficult to finalize a vaccine to attack it successfully.

"Authorities Friday also destroyed 400 fowl in a residential area of Jakarta near the home of a young girl who died from the disease."

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Thai scientist fears human-to-human cases of bird flu</font>

By KATE WALKER
UPI Correspondent
United Press International</a></center>

WASHINGTON, Dec. 2 (UPI) -- <u>Thai health officials have expressed concern that the country's two latest confirmed victims of avian influenza may be the beginning of the much feared human-to-human transmission.</u></b>

Dr. Charoen Chuchottaworn, an avian-flu expert at the Public Health Ministry, said doctors reviewing the cases were alerted by the very mild symptoms present in both patients, neither of whom had had any recent contact with birds or poultry.

The doctors are unsure as to how either of the infected contracted the disease and have raised the possibility that the virus has traded its pathogenicity for ease of transmission.

Dr. Kamnuan Ungchusak, director of Thailand's Epidemiology Bureau, refuted these assertions, saying: "Chickens were dying near their homes and chicken droppings were everywhere around their neighborhood. They might have contracted the virus through contaminated soil."

Dr. Charoen, however, fears that these cases may be the tip of a previously unconsidered iceberg and that other people infected with a mild-symptom variant of avian influenza may have been around and undiagnosed for quite some time.

It must be stressed that these cases do not signal the beginning of a human-to-human transmissible pandemic of bird flu, merely that an isolated group of scientists is suggesting that the virus may already have become more transmissible by becoming less virulent.

Meanwhile:

-- Three more villages in eastern Romania have been quarantined following the discovery of an H5 strain of avian influenza in poultry in one of the villages.

The Romanian Ministry of Agriculture suspects the presence of bird flu in the other villages but is awaiting confirmation of test results from the United Kingdom.

Culling has begun in the area, and authorities estimate that 9,500 birds will be killed.

-- Also in Romania, authorities have banned hunting in Braila county as a precautionary measure against the spread of bird flu.

-- A study conducted by the University of Oxford of the chest X-rays of 14 Vietnamese patients ill with avian influenza found shared abnormalities in the lungs.

While all the sets of lungs were found to be surrounded by fluid, afflicted with a variety of infections and full of pus, the scientists established that the severity of the symptoms as seen in the X-rays was a good indication of the likelihood of survival.

-- Ethiopia is conducting tests for avian influenza on dead pigeons found in the east of the African country.

There have been no outbreaks of avian influenza in Africa, and officials say that the tests are a precautionary measure. The undisclosed number of dead birds were found in a region of the country not on any migratory routes.

Seleshi Zewdie, director of the animal health department in the Ministry of Agriculture, said, "It is unlikely that the disease is bird flu. It could be a local disease strain."

-- A team from the World Health Organization investigating the deaths from avian influenza in China has said that the extent of the problem in the country -- and elsewhere -- may be worse than initially thought.

While there are no problems of transparency on the part of the Chinese government, it is feared that the systems in place for detection and prevention of the disease may not be as proficient as the WHO would like.

Dick Thompson, a WHO spokesman in Geneva, told the New York Times, "In some cases the surveillance system may not be there. We're not nosing around, but we may be able to provide (China with) some technical expertise."

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Being a day older than the article just above, this might be a re-post. But in spite of that - it links to the other articles - Shakey

<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Doctors fear latest human-to-human bird-flu cases</font>

Published on Dec 01 , 2005
<A href="http://202.60.196.117/breaking/read...en&newsid=98629">LINK</a></center>

The two latest confirmed cases of human bird flu in Thailand might be human-to-human transmissions, a senior health official said yesterday.</b>

Dr Charoen Chuchottaworn, a bird-flu expert at the Public Health Ministry's Department of Medical Services, said doctors concluded after reviewing the history of the past two cases that both victims presented very mild symptoms of avian influenza and neither had any physical contact with chickens or birds.

One of the victims was a boy in Bangkok and the other was an 18-year-old man from Nonthaburi province.

This left doctors no clues as to where the patients became infected with the H5N1 virus and showed that the avian influenza had moved from causing severe human infection to milder cases.

Charoen, who is also a member of the national committee issuing guidelines for the treatment of avian influenza, was speaking at the Joint International Tropical Medicine Meeting 2005 in Bangkok.

Dr Kamnuan Ungchusak, director of the Epidemiology Bureau, challenged Charoen's assertion about human-to-human transmissions.

He told The Nation that while neither of the patients had direct contact with chickens, they lived in an environment where the virus was prevalent.

"Chickens were dying near their homes and chicken droppings were everywhere around their neighbourhood," he said.

"They might have contracted the virus through contaminated soil."

Dr Charoen said that the milder the symptoms, the harder it is for doctors to diagnose. This means that a lot more advanced laboratory facilities are needed with a testing technique called RT-PCR to confirm cases and decide if patients should be treated with antiviral Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate).

He said this meant that avian influenza could become asymptomatic now.

The only tool available in Thailand to fight H5N1 infections at the moment is insufficient, he said. At present, Thailand has about a million capsules (for 100,000 treatments) of Tamiflu, but it is estimated that about 120 million capsules of the drug will be needed.

In the past, only severe cases of human bird flu have been detected in Thailand simply because patients went to hospital for treatment. But doctors believe that there have been many cases with mild symptoms of the disease.

"We believe that this is the tip of the iceberg," he said.

Signs of possible human-to-human transmission were closely observed in Vietnam, where 10 clusters of probable human transmissions were detected in which the victims had no contact with infected poultry, Charoen said.

Thailand and Indonesia had one official cluster, he said, but the Indonesian cluster showed clear-cut evidence because a child contracted H5N1 without going to an infected area, as her father had.

As always with your extensive bird flu updates Shakey, THANK YOU!

BV

BV141 said:

As always with your extensive bird flu updates Shakey, THANK YOU!

BV

Click to expand...

Ditto. Hopefully we'll be looking at a much less deadly H2H form.

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It is apparent - from all the news articles (from different sites). That the Asian PTB are seemingly to NOW take it for granted that H5N1 is in humans......


<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>China studies new treatments for human cases of bird flu </font>

<A href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-12/03/content_3871474.htm">www.chinaview.cn</a>
2005-12-03 13:33:25 </center>

BEIJING, Dec. 3 -- China has launched a new research program to discover new clinical treatments for patients with cases of severe flu or bird flu.</b>

The new program was launched Friday in Beijing at a seminar on the clinical treatment of human cases of bird flu.

The seminar is aimed at collating and exchanging clinical experience in the medical treatment of bird flu, and discovering more reasonable and effective therapies that will relieve the current high mortality rates in human cases of bird flu.

So far, China has confirmed three human cases of bird flu, with 2 of these cases proving fatal.

Experts at the seminar call on the combined advantages of Chinese traditional medicine and western medical treatment, to design new therapies with Chinese characteristics to treat human cases of bird flu.

bump...

OMG! Thanks Shakey.

Wow... This is getting pretty damn intense! The next little while shall be...'interesting'...

Got preps everyone?

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With Jakarat admitting that their city is saturated with H5N1; now Vietnam saying that it has 304 outbreaks of it....

Me thinks that things have gotten way out of control; if TPTB ever had a shot at controling this bug. They have lost their chance now, if they ever had one, that is (IMHO).....


<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Vietnam Reports 304 H5N1 Outbreaks</font>

<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12020502/H5N1_Vietnam_304.html">Recombinomics Commentary</a>
December 2, 2005</center>

Vietnam's latest OIE filing details 304 H5N1 outbreaks. The vast majority of these outbreaks began in the last week in October or in November. The outbreaks were primarily in northern Vietnam and had the following distribution:</b>

Bac Giang (13), Bac Lieu (1), Bac Ninh (22), Cao Bang (3), Dong Thap (8), Ha Giang (1), Ha Noi (1), Hai Duong (42), Hai Phong (1), Hoa Binh (1), Hung Yen (5), Nghe An (8), Ninh Binh (31), Phu Tho (1), Quang Ninh (7), Son La (18), Thai Bonh (1), Thai Nguyen (3), Thanh Hoa (47), TP-Hai Phong (87), Vinh Phuc (3).

It is unclear if these are linked to migratory birds, but the isolates from Qinghai Lake were HPAI H5N1 and all had the PB2 polymorphism E627K, which is associated with increased virulence in mammals. Earlier this year the outbreaks in northern Vietnam were milder, but clusters were more common and larger. The outbreaks were associated with a recombinant H5N1 that had dropped an R in the HA cleavage site.

Sequence data from the recent outbreaks would be useful. All indigenous H5N1 sequences in Vietnam since 2004 have been amantadine resistant, while none of the H5N1 wild bird sequences have had mutations in the M2 ion channel, the target of the amantadines. Moreover, all of the H5N1 wild bird sequences at Qinghai Lake had the missing R and had a cleavage site of RRRKKR, matching the 1996 Guangdong goose sequence.

The mixing of the two HPAI H5N1 sequences could create new problems and may be reflected in recent concerns about increase human-to-human transmission of H5N1 in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and China.

Quick bump before bed... ^^^

Hopefully this will be Stopped like Sars!

Amazing medical technology, has amazing results! Thanks to our wonderful medical warriors such as are on this site! Thanks Shakey!

From www.forbes.com

Associated Press

Ukraine Reports First Outbreak of Bird Flu ​

12.03.2005, 07:01 AM


Ukraine reported on Saturday its first outbreak of bird flu, discovered among some 1,500 dead chickens and geese in the Black Sea region of Crimea.

The dead birds, mostly domesticated chickens and geese, tested positive for the H5 type of bird flu, the Agriculture Ministry said. It said samples would be sent to laboratories in Italy and Britain for tests to determine whether it is the virulent H5N1 strain, which can be deadly to humans.

The bird flu outbreak began in 2003 in Asia, where it has devastated flocks and jumped from birds to humans, killing at least 68 people, most of them in Vietnam and Thailand. Some experts fear the disease could mutate into a form that is easily transferable among humans and cause a pandemic.

Bird flu has been detected in neighboring countries, and Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula has been an area of special concern because it is a landing spot for many migratory birds.

The dead birds were found in the Crimea's Sovetskiy and Nizhnegorskiy regions, said Oleksandr Horobets, spokesman for the Agriculture Ministry. Experts were dispatched to the Black Sea peninsula to investigate, Horobets added.

He said authorities had imposed a quarantine on the villages, and people in contact with the dead birds were being monitored for health problems.

President Viktor Yushchenko's chief-of-staff, Oleh Rybachuk, convened a special meeting Saturday to discuss how to prevent more outbreaks.

The ex-Soviet republic had already adopted tough border controls and strengthened regulations in its own poultry industry.

On Saturday, the country banned all sales of domestic fowl in the Crimea.

Shakey, sad as it is to say, we can't stop one terrorist from crossing our southern border. There is no way to stop a contaminated soul from coming here and spreading this like wildfire.

We're in big trouble folks. Trust me on that one. The plans are in place to change the face of America.

Enjoy the checkpoints.

Ffrom Reuters.com

Indonesia confirms eighth death from bird flu​

Sat Dec 3, 2005 8:46 AM GMT


JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia has had its eighth human death due to bird flu confirmed by a Hong Kong laboratory affiliated with the World Health Organization, a senior Health Ministry official said on Saturday.

Hariadi Wibisono told Reuters the results on the 25-year-old woman, who died earlier this week, made her Indonesia's eighth confirmed death from the H5N1 strain of bird flu.

"We got the result this morning. She was positive," said Wibisono, who heads a department charged with eradicating animal-borne diseases.

Officials have previously said the woman had contact with dead chickens before being admitted to a Jakarta hospital.

Another five people have been confirmed to have contracted the virus in Indonesia but have survived.

The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain is endemic in poultry in parts of Asia, where it has killed more than 60 people.

Experts fear H5N1 could mutate into a form that passes easily among people, just like human influenza. If it does, millions could die because they would have no immunity.

Most human bird flu cases in Asia have been blamed on direct or indirect contact with infected chickens.

God help us.



Terri in Indiana

My feeling about this is same as above, no human way to prevent the spread.

The social reactions to this will probably be as bad or worse than the disease itself.

be prepared for both..

SlateWiper? We will know one of these days. This year? Next year? Very bad.

"Dr Charoen Chuchottaworn, a bird-flu expert at the Public Health Ministry's Department of Medical Services, said doctors concluded after reviewing the history of the past two cases that both victims presented very mild symptoms of avian influenza and neither had any physical contact with chickens or birds.

"One of the victims was a boy in Bangkok and the other was an 18-year-old man from Nonthaburi province.

"This left doctors no clues as to where the patients became infected with the H5N1 virus and showed that the avian influenza had moved from causing severe human infection to milder cases."


It seems that this might in fact be good news or at least not so alarming. The hope has been that if H5N1 acquires the H2H transmissibility, that it would lose virulence. And that is what seems to be the case here.

JC Refuge said:

"This left doctors no clues as to where the patients became infected with the H5N1 virus and showed that the avian influenza had moved from causing severe human infection to milder cases."


It seems that this might in fact be good news or at least not so alarming. The hope has been that if H5N1 acquires the H2H transmissibility, that it would lose virulence. And that is what seems to be the case here.

Click to expand...

I think that's actually a bad thing... A decrease in the 'kill factor' would lead to an increase in transmission...

If it's killing 50%+ of those infected right now, it makes it harder to spread... If it drops to say 10%, it should theoretically be able to spread more rapidly and widely... At least that's been my understanding of the situation...

Hey Shakey, thanks loads for the info! I've got my food stores up to snuff, but since I got my new shotgun, I need more ammo. Thankfully, this bug is going to give me the chance needed to fix that problem. I need slugs, double aught, and aughts. Man, this could get expensive!

gappedout said:

If it's killing 50%+ of those infected right now, it makes it harder to spread... If it drops to say 10%, it should theoretically be able to spread more rapidly and widely... At least that's been my understanding of the situation...

Click to expand...

Sure, 10% would be devastating--even the 2-3% that the "Spanish Flu" killed was disastrous. Right now, though, with this variant spreading fast in Indonesia and Vietnam (and China?), there aren't reports of a lot of deaths. It's obviously very early to even see mortality rates in this current epidemic, but the silence is more reassuring than if there were reports of deaths left and right being attributed to this right now.

I totally agree with you! That would be pretty darn scary - even more so than it already is!

Thank you for the updates.
pf

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Ukraine's president declares bird flu emergency </font>

03/12/2005 - 17:49:10
<A href="http://www.breakingnews.ie/2005/12/03/story233320.html">BreakingNews.ie.Ukraine</a></center>

President Viktor Yushchenko ordered a state of emergency in parts of Ukraine’s Crimea region today following confirmation of the country’s first bird flu outbreak.</b>

More than 1,600 birds have died in the region.

Yuschchenko’s order affects four villages in the Black Sea peninsula region where the dead birds – domesticated chickens and geese – tested positive for the H5 subtype of the virus, spokeswoman Irina Gerashchenko said.

Agriculture Minister Oleksandr Baranivsky said earlier that officials had also identified a third region, but said that experts were still waiting for a diagnosis.

Authorities had already imposed a quarantine on the villages, and people in contact with the dead birds were being monitored for health problems.

The carcasses were being burned, Emergency Situations Ministry spokesman Ihor Krol said.

Samples would be sent to laboratories in Italy and Britain for further tests to determine whether the disease could be the deadly H5N1 strain, which is being monitored for fear it could mutate into a form that is easily transferable among humans.

Baranivsky attributed the outbreak to contact between migratory birds at the Crimea’s Lake Savash and domestic birds.

He said 1,621 birds had died, and officials would being culling all birds in the area tomorrow.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>State of emergency declared in bird flu-hit parts of Crimea</font>

Dec 3 2005 7:45PM
<A href="http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/28.html?id_issue=11430337">Interfax>Politics</a></center>

KYIV. Dec 3 (Interfax) - President Viktor Yushchenko declared a state of emergency in parts of the Ukrainian region of Crimea on Saturday after outbreaks of bird flu were recorded in the regions, his press service said. </b>

The state of emergency decree followed a conference that considered urgent measures to counter the disease.

Emergencies Minister Viktor Baloha, Finance Minister Viktor Pynzenyk, Health Minister Yury Polyachenko, Agriculture Minister Oleksandr Baranovsky, and Interior Minister Yury Lutsenko took part in the conference.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Minister confirms avian flu cases in Ukraine</font>
03.12.2005, 21.07
<A href="http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=2688451&PageNum=0">ITAR-TASS</a></center>
KIEV, December 3 (Itar-Tass) -- Agricultural Policy Minister Alexander Baranivsky confirmed avian flu cases in Ukraine. </b>

“We have findings confirming the presence of the H5 avian flu virus in Ukraine,” the minister said on Saturday.

He said President Viktor Yushchenko had summoned a special meeting to discuss the issue and signed a decree that orders the creation of a crisis management group to be led by the emergencies minister, who has already flown to the Crimea where bird flu cases have been registered.

Baranivsky said the results of additional analysis are expected to arrive from Britain and Italy on Wednesday or Thursday.

He said the situation at poultry farms raises no concerns. “We see no threat there,” he said.

The minister also assured the population that “there is no threat to people”.

He said the virus dies at the temperature of 70 degrees Celsius above zero, and there is no risk of getting infected through food. However he urged people in the Crimea to minimise contact with fowl.

Some countries may ban poultry imports from Ukraine. However Baranivsky believes these measures will not affect the Ukrainian market of poultry that is supplied mainly to domestic consumers.

He said fowl consumption in Ukraine is growing. In the first 10 months of 2005, poultry production increased by 80,000 tonnes from the same period of last year.

The minister announced a ban on fowl hunting in the Crimea.

Meanwhile authorities have imposed quarantine in four Crimean villages.

“According to the Crimean veterinary department, an epizootic examination has exposed highly pathogenic flu cases among domestic fowl,” the Emergencies Ministry said earlier.

At 33 out of 488 households in the village of Nekrasovka, Sovetsky district, 887 fowls have died since October 18. In the village of Zapovit Leninsky, Dzhankoi district, 279 hens and geese have died in five households since November 1. Three hundred and fifty fowls have died in two villages in the Nizhnegorsky district.

“To prevent the spread of a possible viral infection, quarantine restrictions have been imposed in these villages,” the ministry said.

Trade in fowl has been banned. The owners have been told to keep all fowl indoors. The dead fowls have been burnt in the presence of veterinary specialists.

A mobile group of specialists from the Emergencies Ministry is working in the Crimea. The ministry has also set up a crisis-management team that works 24 hours a day. The Ukrainian government has created an emergency epizootic commission.

The head of the Ukrainian president’s Secretariat, Oleg Rybachuk, summoned an emergency meeting to discuss the situation in the Crimea. Participating in the meeting were the agriculture, health, and interior ministers, the heads of other agencies.

At the end of September, ornithologists warned about a possible outbreak of avian flu in the Crimea. Poultry farms started taking precautions after the warning.

The Crimea has always been a transit point for migrant birds on their way to the Mediterranean, Africa, and America in the autumn, and back in the spring. Each time, up to half a million ducks, geese, and swans make stopovers on Lake Sivash.

With Jakarat admitting that their city is saturated with H5N1; now Vietnam saying that it has 304 outbreaks of it....

Me thinks that things have gotten way out of control; if TPTB ever had a shot at controling this bug. They have lost their chance now, if they ever had one, that is (IMHO).....

Click to expand...

I think you are right there Shakey.

Message is-- Soon coming to a city near you for the world.

Bump

CelticRose said:

Bump

Click to expand...

Again.

This could be the beginning of something very bad for everyone. This forum is here for just this type of info.

Bump
Bump
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The Crimea has always been a transit point for migrant birds on their way to the Mediterranean, Africa, and America in the autumn, and back in the spring. Each time, up to half a million ducks, geese, and swans make stopovers on Lake Sivash.


Scarey scenario...just be ready...

BTTT

JC Refuge said:

"Dr Charoen Chuchottaworn, a bird-flu expert at the Public Health Ministry's Department of Medical Services, said doctors concluded after reviewing the history of the past two cases that both victims presented very mild symptoms of avian influenza and neither had any physical contact with chickens or birds.

"One of the victims was a boy in Bangkok and the other was an 18-year-old man from Nonthaburi province.

"This left doctors no clues as to where the patients became infected with the H5N1 virus and showed that the avian influenza had moved from causing severe human infection to milder cases."


It seems that this might in fact be good news or at least not so alarming. The hope has been that if H5N1 acquires the H2H transmissibility, that it would lose virulence. And that is what seems to be the case here.

Click to expand...

The first wave of 1918 was mild. It needed time to get a better grip on humans. I do not find this comforting in the least.

Thanks Shakey! Time will tell!

Well, I hope it is like Ebola Restin rather than Ebola Zaire............ Sorry for spelling.........as if that ever mattered................

Shakey are you getting as NERVOUS as I am

A few points from my brilliant mind


1. The Crimea is big. The black death began in the Ukraine when Tartars, descendants of Genghis Khan's Mongols, laid seige to Sevasapol I think and lobbed plague infected body parts into the city. The disease then spread to Venice by Italian Ship crews trading with infected cities. This is where we get the word quarantine, it is from the Italian word for forty and refers to the Italians keeping ships out to sea for forty days and waiting to see if anyone died.

This is big and the Ukranian ministers comment about nobody having anything to fear is both pathetic and bitterly ironic.

2. the bird flu is now from Eastern and Central Europe all the way to the Russian Far East, China, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. It is a global pandemic for sure. It is on six continents, except Anartica?, probably.

The bird flu is a done deal, REPEAT A DONE DEAL. The milder version is very likely what I have been dealing with myself off and on since October.

I DO NOT FIND THE LESSENING OF VIRULENCE, LETHALITY, OF THE BIRD FLU TO BE A GOOD THING!!!!!! I am extremely disturbed by it as I see it, in medical terms, as the final precursor to global pandemic. We now have human to human transmission FINALLY being confirmed by the corrupt and degenerate third world cesspool governments who have lied to us about bird flu for a long time now.We now have admission of the global spread of bird flu. The chickens have literally, come home to roost. And they have bird flu.

TPTB know what is coming and they are just trying to hold the fraying ropes together for the shopping season. If you are a lethal virus, with a 50% kill rate, you will logically change yourself to infect more people with a lower kill rate. A 50% kill rate means one out of two virus' die with the host. Biologically this is unacceptable. What you would do is lower your kill rate to increase your infection rate so you can survive better.

We are IMHO Shakey on the verge, the imminent verge of the mass outbreak I have long feared. Unless I am terribly mistaken we will begin to see Jakarta, et al just explode with bird flu cases, with a lower overall kill rate. However, the virus will stalk the population like a wolf pace and kill the weakest it can find. People banter around a 2% or a 3% or a 10% kill rate like it is no big deal. Assuming we have 150 million Americans infected, about 50% of our total population, a 10% kill rate is 15 million people. The American Social order would collapse in terms of day to day existence from this.

Shakey you will be remembered as a great hero in future days. I am going to hunt down my end of antibiotics post and bump it. I am turning into a true prophet of doom to be sure.

Society is not finished in the sense of total collapse. It is ending in the sense of normal control mechanisms and the usual social order systems. What is on a broad range of institutions, from the Roman Catholic church, to our political and economic system have outlived their usefulness. The bird flu is a biological flushing of the system toilet. It is a natural process and is long overdue. The bird flu is the biological version of the Old Testament Year of Jubilee. And these fools who trust in Tamiflu are going to die from that. YOu will live or you will die and it is a function of healthy lifestyle more than anything.

And caplock IT IS NEVER POSSIBLE TO HAVE ENOUGH SHOTGUN AMMO.

better living through massed firepower

Its hard to get accurate numbers of the outbreak when it is obvious that the information hasn't been realistic all along. There are lots of reasons why but all teh same you have to watch the numbers. If teh numbers start to square themselves then its a true outbreak. so if vietnam had 4 deaths in the next days and its human to human you might see 12-16 deaths next week.
FOr example the nurse who is infected in one ofthe stories, did she bring to her family befoer she got sick? And why did she catch it, are they using proper technique, does she have proper gear.etc..?
This thing has been really hyped and I never trust hype. If a strain develops in asia that is human to human its already different than the strain going bird to bird. It actually complicates the situation in an interesting way. (or a abd way if you want to see it that way.) A human to human mutation is no longer the same virus but the world will still have the problem of bird outbreaks infection humans with out having mutated. It will make the task of tracking teh epidemic more complicated.