12/19 H5N1: Losing Battle

Nuthatch

Inactive
World Is Losing Battle to Combat Bird Flu, UN Says (Update1)

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The world is ``losing the battle'' against avian flu in poultry, increasing the risk the gradually mutating virus will become more infectious to people and trigger an influenza pandemic, a United Nations official said.

Outbreaks among birds in Ukraine, Romania and possibly Africa show the deadly H5N1 avian flu strain is spreading, David Nabarro, the UN's avian flu coordinator, told Indonesian government officials and reporters today in Jakarta. Earlier, a health ministry official said an eight-year-old boy, who died four days ago, may be Indonesia's 11th bird-flu fatality.

``We are losing the battle against this particular'' avian influenza outbreak in birds, Nabarro said. ``We must focus on stamping it out.''

Human infections from H5N1 have more than doubled this year, prompting health authorities to warn that more needs to be done to control outbreaks in poultry, which increase the risk of the virus mutating and causing a pandemic that may kill millions.

Nabarro was appointed in September by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to coordinate UN efforts to fight bird flu and delay the next pandemic. The H5N1 virus has killed at least 71 people in Asia since 2004. There have been at least 139 human cases, including 95 this year, according to figures updated by the World Health Organization on Dec. 16.

``This H5N1 virus is slowly changing though genetic ressortment or mutation,'' Nabarro said. ``The change is slow, but if this virus undergoes the change that leads to sustained human-to-human transmission, then we have a major problem. Then we probably will have the next human pandemic influenza. This is serious risk.''

Indonesian Case

Indonesia is awaiting confirmation of its latest suspected bird flu fatality from a WHO laboratory in Hong Kong, Hariadi Wibisono, director of vector-borne disease control at the Ministry of Health, said in a telephone interview today. The Health Ministry is also awaiting test results on another suspected case: a 39-year-old man who died on Dec. 13 in Jakarta.

If either is confirmed, the infections would take to nine the number of cases confirmed in Asia this month, the most since June, when 11 cases were confirmed in Vietnam.

The eight-year-old Indonesian boy came from the Utan Kayu area in east Jakarta, where another confirmed case, a 16-year- old girl, was found.

There is a bird market in the Utan Kayu area where stores sell birds for pets, said Ilham Patu, a doctor at a Jakarta hospital treating the 16-year-old girl who died last month.

Almost all human infections have been contracted by contact with diseased fowl, health authorities have said. More than 150 million commercially raised birds have died or been destroyed in an attempt to control outbreaks of the H5N1 strain in Asia and Eastern Europe.

Stamped Out

``Detecting and culling infected birds is still the key, and for that we have to compensate the owners of chicken whose flocks are killed,'' Nabarro said. ``And we have to limit interaction between humans and birds, which is a huge challenge within an environment where people are used to living very close to their chickens.''

Romania began culling chickens in the southeastern village of Marsilieni in response to the country's 18th avian influenza outbreak, Agence France-Presse reported on Dec. 17. The poultry tested positive to an H5 avian-flu subtype, AFP said.

In a separate report the same day, AFP said diseased poultry in the Crimea area of neighboring Ukraine tested positive in a U.K. laboratory to the H5N1 bird-flu strain.

Malawi

Malawi, in southeast Africa, is investigating a possible outbreak after thousands of fork-tailed drongo birds died in the central district of Ntchisi, about 200 kilometers (124 miles) east of the capital, Lilongwe, China's official Xinhua news agency said on Dec. 16.

``We believe that it is starting to spread into Africa,'' Nabarro said. ``I do hope that the Malawi case is not H5N1. If they are, then it's very serious.''

``The close proximity between people and animals and insufficient surveillance and disease control capacities in eastern African countries create an ``ideal breeding ground'' for the virus, Joseph Domenech, chief veterinary officer with the UN's Food & Agriculture Organization, said in a statement on Oct. 19.
 

Nuthatch

Inactive
Poultry raisers manage to make a living after bird flu scare

www.chinaview.cn 2005-12-19 16:47:07


HEISHAN, Liaoning Province, Dec. 19 (Xinhuanet) -- Dai Qingshan, aprivate chicken farm owner in northeast China's Liaoning Province, kept rubbing his hands for warmth as he came home after selling dates from the morning market on Monday.

He warmed himself near the stove for a while before he told his wife, smilingly, "I earned 10 yuan (1.2 US dollars) in just two hours." The temperature of this morning has dropped to minus 10 degrees Celsius in Heishan, a bird flu-hit county in Liaoning Province.

The couple were paid compensation for the 5,500 chickens culled last month in the bird flu epidemic. They spent some of the compensation on buying 150 kilograms of dates for sale at nearby markets. "Just make some small money until we're allowed to raise chickens again in six months," Dai said.

The Ministry of Agriculture announced on Nov. 4 that Dai's village in Badaohao Township, Heishan County, was hit by the H5N1 strain of highly pathogenic bird flu. The epidemic later affected at least 50,000 chicken farmers in 19 townships and villages.

When quarantine was finally lifted on Dec. 1, these former chicken farmers racked their brains to earn money in a different way.

Wang Deshuang, a farmer in Zhen'an Village, is luckier than most of his peers: he's got an offer from a poultry processing plant in Dalian, a job that pays 600 yuan (74 US dollars) a month.Wang, a former chicken farmer, lost 3,000 chickens following the bird flu outbreak.

"The crucial job for the government now is to help former chicken farmers make a living," said Qi Baode, deputy head of Heishan County. "We're following the job market in neighboring counties closely and are helping farmers grow high-yield crops."

In Shizhuzi Village, Fangshan Town, farmers are building up an irrigation system in order to grow peanuts in upcoming Spring. A local official predicted that local farmers will grow 6,000 hectares of peanuts next year.

On the other hand, the county government is mapping out detailed plans to standardize and improve poultry farming in the coming year.

Though there're still six months to go before the chicken farming ban is lifted, Jiang Haijun, a chicken farmer in Taihe Township, has begun renovating his chicken house. "I'll open extrawindows and install more ventilators to improve ventilation without letting in wild birds," he said.

Experts say the bird flu virus most probably came from wild birds as Heishan County is located on the route of migratory birds that fly from East Asia to Australia.

Wang Huijiu, an official in Taihe Township, said he is seeking permission from some nearby counties for farmers in his township to raise poultry at their chicken farms. "This will help farmers make money before the chicken farming ban is lifted on July 1."

To alleviate the burden of chicken farmers, the credit union inHeishan County has decided to lower the interest rate of loans by 30 percent and allow bankrupt farmers to postpone loan repayment. "We're ready to extend more low-interest loans to chicken farmers next year," said Yuan Guoshan, vice director of the credit union.
 

Nuthatch

Inactive
from www.english.chosun.com

No Deadly Bird Flu in Korea Yet
Korea's Agriculture Ministry has conducted a series of tests on birds on migratory routes as the birds reach their winter home in Korea but found no deadly strain of avian influenza. The ministry said 50 low-pathogenic bird flu infections were found in about 3,000 bird feces samples from more than 20 migratory routes nationwide and in civilian-restricted areas near the inter-Korean border. But the deadly H5N1 strain was not among them.
Authorities will continue to take preventive measure in rural areas until the end of February as some low-pathogenic strains, like H5 and H7, could mutate into highly-pathogenic forms.

Arirang News
 

Nuthatch

Inactive
Malaysian news: www.thestar.com (attributed to reuters)

China backs poultry trade amid bird flu scares
By Sayed Salahuddin

BEIJING (Reuters) - China has urged local governments to ensure the survival of the poultry trade after about 30 outbreaks of bird flu this year.

China has culled more than 20 million birds after outbreaks in more than 10 provinces and has banned poultry exports from areas hit by the H5N1 strain deadly to humans until after quarantines are lifted.

But some local governments had restricted the movement of healthy poultry products, the People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the Communist Party, said on Monday.


China has urged local governments to ensure the survival of the poultry trade after about 30 outbreaks of bird flu this year. A man seen feeding chickens in a suburb of Hefei in east China's Anhui province, in this December 16, 2005 file photo. (REUTERS/China Newsphoto)
"Relevant places should ... resolutely eliminate regional protection barriers that affect the normal circulation of qualified poultry and poultry products," it quoted a cabinet notice as saying.

Despite the tightly centralised political system, local governments in China have been gaining more economic autonomy since market-oriented reforms started in the 1980s.

However, the state-run Outlook Weekly magazine this month accused regionalism of "hurting central authority" and preventing China from setting up a unified nationwide market.

China's top veterinarian, Jia Youling, warned last week of the possibility of fresh bird flu outbreaks with greater movement of poultry during the Lunar New Year holiday in January.
 

Nuthatch

Inactive
Setting compensation seen as key in bird flu fight
19 Dec 2005 09:18:41 GMT

Source: Reuters

By David Evans

PARIS, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Compensation for farmers whose poultry is culled to contain bird flu needs to be high enough to encourage them to report the disease but not at levels that could incite false claims, a top veterinary official said.

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has killed more than 70 people in Asia and and led to the culling of millions of poultry in the region. It has now spread to birds in eastern Europe.

Experts believe migratory birds have carried the virus over long distances and fear that Africa could be the next hot spot.

International health officials have drawn up a battle plan to halt its spread, focused on stamping the disease out at source. A key component is setting compensation for farmers.

"We need farmers to be able to come forward and say if they have cases, but you don't want to give too much or you create an advantage in having the disease," Alex Thiermann, President of the International Animal Health Code at the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) told Reuters.

He said the OIE was studying the issue of compensation and may draw up guidelines for governments in the near future.

Compensation in the recent cases in eastern Europe have been based on market prices for poultry.

Romania has set aside around $700,000 for compensation to farmers. Some 60,000 domestic birds have so far been culled.

In Russia, authorities have set the payment at $3.49 for a chicken, but more for ducks, geese and turkeys.

In Ukraine, poultry have been incinerated using napalm left over from the Soviet era, with residents receiving compensation ranging from $3 for a chicken to $18 for a turkey.

In western Europe, farmers' calls for compensation have been linked to measures forcing them to keep birds inside or for lost sales amid a dip in consumption.

In France, for example, the sector estimates lost sales have cost it 100 million euros ($120 million) and has asked the European Union to authorise compensation.

UNDER-REPORTING IN ASIA

Officials have said there has been widespread under-reporting of H5N1 in Asia, and this has caused delays in detection and halting its spread in the region.

The World Health Organisation's top bird flu expert in Asia Hitoshi Oshitani said earlier this month that countries like Indonesia lacked compensation for farmers, so there was little incentive for them to report cases that were likely to result in widespread culling.

Yet in China, where more than 20 million birds have so far been culled, officials have also cited the opposite problem.

Jai Youling, director-general of the veterinary bureau at the Agriculture Ministry has rejected accusations that the government had covered up cases and said that in fact farmers were falsely reporting cases in the hope of receiving money.

Thiermann said governments needed to consider wider issues thaN just the replacement costs of culled birds, and there were many ways to relieve the financial burden on farmers.

"A good compensation package would involve collaboration with the banking sector to look at loan repayments and with the public utilities on bill payments," he said.

The Chinese authorities have said companies involved in poultry rearing and processing could be exempt from corporate income tax this year and possibly in 2006 to help cushion the impact of an outbreak of bird flu.

The tax break will be limited to the firms' poultry-related operations, the Xinhua news agency said, quoting the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Follow the money

TPTB have done a good job on keeping the lid on the news coming out of Asia, so it does not disturb the X-mas shoping season... Come January when it's less economically critical not to have people thinking about Bird Flu, we'll be hearing more news.

SARS had a massive economic impact on Asia... they are doing all they can not to let Bird Flu do the same.

:vik:
 

Tiberius797

Inactive
Personally, I don't think the bird flu will mutate and hit us as hard as people think. Doesn't mean I am not prepared for the worst though. But I have a gut filling that this is all just hype.
 
Tiberius797 said:
Personally, I don't think the bird flu will mutate and hit us as hard as people think. Doesn't mean I am not prepared for the worst though. But I have a gut filling that this is all just hype.



<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Indonesian Officials Report Human Bird Flu Death </font>

<A href="http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-12-19-voa33.cfm">By VOA News </a>
19 December 2005</center>
Indonesian health officials say local tests show an eight-year-old boy in Jakarta has died of bird flu.

The child died last week.</b>

A World Health Organization (WHO) laboratory in Hong Kong is testing samples from the boy as well as from a 39-year-old man who was earlier reported to have contracted the disease.

Indonesian health officials announced Friday that local tests showed the man had died earlier in the week of bird flu.

Results from the WHO testing are expected in several days. If the deaths are confirmed to be caused by the bird flu virus, they will bring Indonesia's human toll from the disease to eleven.

So far, avian flu is known to have killed nine people in Indonesia, and more than 70 in Asia since 2003.
 
Tiberius797 said:
Personally, I don't think the bird flu will mutate and hit us as hard as people think. Doesn't mean I am not prepared for the worst though. But I have a gut filling that this is all just hype.



<B><center>December 19, 2005
<A href="http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200512/19/eng20051219_229176.html">People's Daily Online</a>

<font size=+1 color=brown>Bird flu mutations bringing world closer to pandemic: UN </font> </center>
No human-to-human transmission of bird flu has been found so far, but subtle mutations in the virus are bringing the world closer to a pandemic, the UN's coordinator on avian influenza has warned recently. </b>

"There are some subtle changes in the genetic makeup of H5N1 which suggest that it is making some of the mutations that would enable it to have a higher likelihood of being able to become a human-to-human transmitted virus," said David Nabarro in Phnom Penh during a one-day visit to Cambodia, which has seen at least four human bird flu deaths.

"Virologists who study these things say do not get complacent. It is quite feasible that H5N1 could mutate. The fact that it has taken some years should not lead you to believe that we are through the worst."

He warned that there are difficulties stockpiling enough anti-viral medicines to combat the illness.

"We all would like there to be much more stock of anti-viral medicines. We are in a bit of difficulty because the production capacity, particularly of (Tamiflu), is quite restricted," he said, adding that the UN was in regular talks with drug manufacturers to build up stocks.

The bird flu virus has killed more than 70 people through Asia since 2003 and resulted in the culling of millions of birds, dealing a huge blow to regional poultry industries.

Source: Xinhua
 
PCViking said:
TPTB have done a good job on keeping the lid on the news coming out of Asia, so it does not disturb the X-mas shoping season... Come January when it's less economically critical not to have people thinking about Bird Flu, we'll be hearing more news.

SARS had a massive economic impact on Asia... they are doing all they can not to let Bird Flu do the same.

:vik:



<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Test finds S. Jakarta man died of bird flu</font>

Abdul Khalik,
December 20 2005
<A href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailcity.asp?fileid=20051219.G02&irec=1">The Jakarta Post, </a>
Jakarta
A 39-year-old man, who died at the Sulianti Saroso Hospital in North Jakarta on Tuesday evening, was confirmed by local medical sources to have been infected by the avian influenza virus.</b>

Spokesman and head of the bird flu surveillance unit of the Sulianti Saroso Hospital, Ilham Patu, said that tests by the Ministry of Health's laboratory suggested that the man, who lived in Kemang Timur, Mampang Prapatan, South Jakarta, was infected by the bird flu virus.

"Several tests at the ministry's laboratory confirmed that he died from bird flu. During our treatment, he also showed symptoms of bird flu. However, we will wait for the WHO-sanctioned laboratory to confirm his status," he told The Jakarta Post.

If confirmed, the man would be the 10th fatality from avian influenza in Indonesia, while an eight-year-old boy who died on Thursday was suspected of being the country's 11th victim.

To date, there have been 14 confirmed human bird flu cases in Indonesia, with nine deaths.

The man, who worked as a security guard at one of the city's prestigious housing complexes in Kemang, South Jakarta, died on Tuesday evening, a day after being transferred to Sulianti Saroso from a hospital in Cilandak, South Jakarta.

Ilham said that the man had presented with bird flu symptoms, including acute pneumonia and high body temperature.

The Ministry of Health killed ten doves and several chickens living in the man's neighborhood after they tested positive to the virus, while blood samples were taken from relatives and neighbors to see if they had contracted the disease.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Animal Husbandry, Fisheries, and Maritime Affairs Agency found over a dozen of birds infected by bird flu virus in two subdistricts in South Jakarta during surveillance tests over the weekend.

A senior official at the agency Adnan Ahmad said on Thursday that at least two birds tested positive to bird flu in Karet Kuningan, and 10 others in Pasangrahan, both in South Jakarta.

"We concentrated on testing birds in several areas in South Jakarta, while next week we will perform tests in several locations in Central Jakarta. Next targets will be North, East, and West Jakarta. We will prioritize places where many birds are kept," he told the Post.

He said that test results showed that infected birds were found in all five municipalities in Jakarta.

Earlier, dozens of infected birds were also found in 10 subdistricts in Jakarta.

The agency found dozens of infected birds in Ceger, Utan Kayu, Pondok Kelapa, Cipinang Melayu, Kampung Makassar all in East Jakarta, while several other infected birds were found in Sunter Jaya, North Jakarta, and Kapuk, West Jakarta.

They also found infected birds in Menteng, Pegangsaan, and Petojo, all in Central Jakarta.

All of the people who died from bird flu were suspected to have been infected by the virus by birds and chickens in their neighborhoods.
 
Tiberius797 said:
Personally, I don't think the bird flu will mutate and hit us as hard as people think. Doesn't mean I am not prepared for the worst though. But I have a gut filling that this is all just hype.


<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>More suspected bird flu victims in Indonesia Indonesia</font>

December 19 2005
<A href="http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stories/s1534409.htm">Radio Australia</a></center>
Tests in Indonesia show that an eight year old boy and a 39 year old man have died from bird flu.</b>

Health officials say samples from the man are being tested in a Hong Kong laboratory to determine whether he died of the H5N1 strain of bird flu.

If confirmed, the man will be the tenth fatality from avian influenza in Indonesia.

The test results on the boy are expected in the next five days.

If confirmed, he will be Indonesia's eleventh bird flu victim.

Since 2003, the H5N1 avian flu virus is known to have killed 71 people in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, China and Cambodia.
 

hillbilly

Membership Revoked
heard a doctor say last night on [C2C] everybody better have at least 3 MONTHS min. supply food water, and a place to go hide
her husband was the pres. of Mains doctor ass.
the way she talked the so called bird flu will be coming
the last place i would want to go would be the hospital when they start spreading it
sounded to me like there wasn't going to be very many doctors show up for work when they hear the first case of bird fly they are gone
 
Tiberius797 said:
Personally, I don't think the bird flu will mutate and hit us as hard as people think. Doesn't mean I am not prepared for the worst though. But I have a gut filling that this is all just hype.



<B><font size=+3 color=red>URGENT:</font> <font size=+1 color=blue><center>Bird flu quarantine to be imposed in Crimea - Ukrainian ministry </font>

13:01 | 19/ 12/ 2005
<A href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20051219/42554376.html">RIA Novosti - World - Urgent</a></center>
KIEV, December 19 (RIA Novosti) - Bird flu quarantine will be imposed this week throughout the Crimea, an autonomy on the Black Sea, the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy said Monday. </b>

This measure may help prevent the virus from spreading throughout the autonomy and to other Ukrainian regions, Minister Oleksandr Baranivskiy said.
 
Tiberius797 said:
Personally, I don't think the bird flu will mutate and hit us as hard as people think. Doesn't mean I am not prepared for the worst though. But I have a gut filling that this is all just hype.



<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Bird flu alert </font>

19/12/2005
<A href="http://www.ifw-net.com/WebPages/ifwnet/asp/pages/GetTextSea.asp?LOGONDATE=1135012824&LOGONTIME=450285124&DATEFORMAT=UK&DB=if&DATABASES=if&LABEL=ifwnet&QUERY=&RECORD=29090&SEARCH=1&PRECISE=ON">International Freighting Weekly </a></center>
Shipping and forwarding companies need to be more aware of the risks of a flu pandemic, insurance company Aon has warned. </b>
Recent cases of ships being held in Piraeus and Malta because of dead birds on deck showed how easily the industry could get involved in the transmission of infectious diseases, it said.

"The threat of a flu pandemic and the associated economic and social costs are very real, " said Steve Allum, chairman of Aon's marine global practice group.

"Companies operating in the marine sector can play an integral role in preventing the spread of a flu pandemic and therefore need to take precautions while carrying out their everyday business." Insurance polices typically excluded damage due to the spread of infectious diseases, he said, so shipping lines should arrange additional cover.

Posted: 19/12/2005
 
Tiberius797 said:
Personally, I don't think the bird flu will mutate and hit us as hard as people think. Doesn't mean I am not prepared for the worst though. But I have a gut filling that this is all just hype.




<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>World Is Losing Battle to Combat Bird Flu, UN Says (Update1) </font>

December 19 2005
<A href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=arc6yngrteHE&refer=asia">Bloomberg.com</a></center>
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The world is ``losing the battle'' against avian flu in poultry, increasing the risk the gradually mutating virus will become more infectious to people and trigger an influenza pandemic, a United Nations official said.</b>

Outbreaks among birds in Ukraine, Romania and possibly Africa show the deadly H5N1 avian flu strain is spreading, David Nabarro, the UN's avian flu coordinator, told Indonesian government officials and reporters today in Jakarta. Earlier, a health ministry official said an eight-year-old boy, who died four days ago, may be Indonesia's 11th bird-flu fatality.

``We are losing the battle against this particular'' avian influenza outbreak in birds, Nabarro said. ``We must focus on stamping it out.''

Human infections from H5N1 have more than doubled this year, prompting health authorities to warn that more needs to be done to control outbreaks in poultry, which increase the risk of the virus mutating and causing a pandemic that may kill millions.

Nabarro was appointed in September by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to coordinate UN efforts to fight bird flu and delay the next pandemic. The H5N1 virus has killed at least 71 people in Asia since 2004. There have been at least 139 human cases, including 95 this year, according to figures updated by the World Health Organization on Dec. 16.

``This H5N1 virus is slowly changing though genetic ressortment or mutation,'' Nabarro said. ``The change is slow, but if this virus undergoes the change that leads to sustained human-to-human transmission, then we have a major problem. Then we probably will have the next human pandemic influenza. This is serious risk.''

Indonesian Case

Indonesia is awaiting confirmation of its latest suspected bird flu fatality from a WHO laboratory in Hong Kong, Hariadi Wibisono, director of vector-borne disease control at the Ministry of Health, said in a telephone interview today. The Health Ministry is also awaiting test results on another suspected case: a 39-year-old man who died on Dec. 13 in Jakarta.

If either is confirmed, the infections would take to nine the number of cases confirmed in Asia this month, the most since June, when 11 cases were confirmed in Vietnam.

The eight-year-old Indonesian boy came from the Utan Kayu area in east Jakarta, where another confirmed case, a 16-year- old girl, was found.

There is a bird market in the Utan Kayu area where stores sell birds for pets, said Ilham Patu, a doctor at a Jakarta hospital treating the 16-year-old girl who died last month.

Almost all human infections have been contracted by contact with diseased fowl, health authorities have said. More than 150 million commercially raised birds have died or been destroyed in an attempt to control outbreaks of the H5N1 strain in Asia and Eastern Europe.

Stamped Out

``Detecting and culling infected birds is still the key, and for that we have to compensate the owners of chicken whose flocks are killed,'' Nabarro said. ``And we have to limit interaction between humans and birds, which is a huge challenge within an environment where people are used to living very close to their chickens.''

Romania began culling chickens in the southeastern village of Marsilieni in response to the country's 18th avian influenza outbreak, Agence France-Presse reported on Dec. 17. The poultry tested positive to an H5 avian-flu subtype, AFP said.

In a separate report the same day, AFP said diseased poultry in the Crimea area of neighboring Ukraine tested positive in a U.K. laboratory to the H5N1 bird-flu strain.

Malawi

Malawi, in southeast Africa, is investigating a possible outbreak after thousands of fork-tailed drongo birds died in the central district of Ntchisi, about 200 kilometers (124 miles) east of the capital, Lilongwe, China's official Xinhua news agency said on Dec. 16.

``We believe that it is starting to spread into Africa,'' Nabarro said. ``I do hope that the Malawi case is not H5N1. If they are, then it's very serious.''

``The close proximity between people and animals and insufficient surveillance and disease control capacities in eastern African countries create an ``ideal breeding ground'' for the virus, Joseph Domenech, chief veterinary officer with the UN's Food & Agriculture Organization, said in a statement on Oct. 19.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Wahyudi Soeriaatmadja in Jakarta at wahyudi@bloomberg.net;
Soraya Permatasari in Jakarta at soraya@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 19, 2005 03:10 EST
 

Nuthatch

Inactive
Bird flu could cost Canada $12b: report

www.chinaview.cn 2005-12-20 01:58:21

OTTAWA, Dec. 19 (Xinhuanet) -- If an avian flu pandemic spreads to Canada, it could carve as much as 14 billion Canadian dollars (12 billion US dollars) off the country's economy and as many as 6.2 million people could get infected with 133,000 likely to die, financial officials said.

An outbreak could cut as much as 1.2 percent off the country's annual gross domestic product. That may slice almost in half the pace of healthy economic growth, which is expected to grow at an average of 2.8 percent in 2005, Canadian Press reported Monday citing relevant documents.

Certain sectors would be hit harder than others, should a deadly avian flu strain begin to spread from person to person in Canada, the analysis by Finance economists suggests.

Travel and tourism would be obvious early targets but the hospitality and entertainment sectors would also be hit hard as people would likely avoid going out socially and risking infection.

Health experts around the globe are deeply concerned that a pandemic could happen and have been planning for the worst-case scenario.

So far, the virulent H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed at least 71 people in Asia since 2003. Most cases have been linked to contact with infected birds.

Experts have said repeated outbreaks in poultry are increasing the risk the virus could mutate into a form that can spread easily among people, possibly sparking a global pandemic.

Canadian Finance Department officials reviewed several other studies of likely pandemic outcomes, with their calculations largely based on the experience of the 1918 global flu pandemic.

The 1918 outbreak eventually infected half the world's population and killed 40 million people, the vast majority of them between the ages of 20 and 40.

They also considered the economic impacts of flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968, as well as the SARS outbreak in 2003, which killed 44 Canadians and walloped parts of the economy.
 
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