11/29 H5N1-CIDRAP: Many Human H5N1 Cases are in Family Clusters

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>China: Bird flu virus in humans mutating </font>

Latest Updated by 2005-11-29 11:00:02
<A href="http://www.newsgd.com/news/China1/200511290036.htm">News Guangdon.com</a>
The H5N1 strain of bird flu seen in human cases in China has mutated as compared with strains found in human cases in Vietnam. </center>

Chinese labs have found that the genetic order of the H5N1 virus seen in humans infected in China is different from that found in humans in Vietnam, Xinhua news agency reported Monday. </b>

Doctors examine the chest X-ray results of an infant suffering from bird flu. The H5N1 strain of bird flu seen in human cases in China has mutated as compared with strains found in human cases in Vietnam.[AFP/file]

In China's human cases, the virus has mutated "to a certain degree," health ministry spokesman Mao Qun'an was quoted as saying.

"But the mutation cannot cause human-to-human transmission of the avian flu," he noted.

Mao said since the H5N1 bird flu first broke out in 1997, most human cases have been reported in Hong Kong, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and the Chinese mainland. No human case has been found in Europe so far.

The major channels of human infection involve direct contact with infected poultry or their secretion and excretion, as well as inhalation of the particles of the virus from the poultry's secretion and excretion, said Mao, noting that the general public won't get infected if they keep themselves away from sick and dead poultry.

By Nov. 25, the World Health Organization (WHO) had reported 132 laboratory-confirmed human cases of bird flu including 68 deaths.

China this month confirmed its first three human cases of bird flu, two of which were fatal. The disease has killed more than 60 people in Asia since 2003.

Health officials fear that the virus could mutate to the extent where it is easily transmitted from human-to-human, an event that could lead to a global pandemic capable of killing hundreds of millions of people.

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<B><center><font size=+1 color=brown>City takes proactive stance over bird flu </font>

Damar Harsanto,
<A href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailcity.asp?fileid=20051129.G01&irec=0">The Jakarta Post,</a>
November 29 2005
Jakarta</center>

Aside from relying on tipoffs from people about bird flu cases found in their neighborhoods, the Jakarta administration has started taking more active measures to contain the spread of the deadly virus by launching a random monitoring operation.</b>
"Besides receiving complaints from people over suspected bird flu cases, we also carry out random checks on birds in several areas to spot birds infected with avian influenza," Central Jakarta Mayor Muhayat told The Jakarta Post on Monday.

Once the officers find any infected birds through a quick blood test, Muhayat said, they would immediately kill the birds without requiring laboratory tests to confirm the presence of the virus.

"Further tests means higher costs and more time. We cannot afford that. That's why we have to react swiftly to prevent the spread of the virus to humans," he asserted.

Central Jakarta is a priority municipality in the capital since central government offices, national and foreign companies and foreign embassies are located there.

The concern of the administration over the bird flu outbreak has reached new heights after it discovered infected birds in seven of 20 subdistricts tested for the virus, predicting that cases in many more areas would be found as monitoring continued. East Jakarta had the highest cases -- with five subdistricts, while North Jakarta and West Jakarta had one infected subdistrict each.

"All five municipalities have been told to conduct random monitoring as a standard operating procedure to contain the bird flu outbreak simultaneously here," Muhayat asserted.

The Central Jakarta municipal administration killed nine birds, mostly pigeons, in Pegangsaan subdistrict near the elite residential area of Menteng over the weekend after the officers discovered birds infected by avian influenza.

"We are also intensifying our monitoring of the health of birds at the National Monument Park (Monas)," he added.

Monas is home to at least 800 pigeons after the administration released them early this year to beautify the park. Wild pigeons can also be found in several other parks in Central Jakarta, including Suropati park in Menteng.

Head of the Central Jakarta Animal Husbandry Office, Sigit Budiharjo, said his officers also found dozens of birds in Menteng infected with the virus earlier last week.

"We culled them right away," Sigit said.

Muhayat also urged the residents to help inform officers about residents who keep birds or chickens at their homes so that his officers could vaccinate the birds.

The World Health Organization-sanctioned laboratory in Hong Kong has confirmed 12 bird flu cases in Indonesia to date. Seven people have died from the virus.

The last two people to have contracted avian influenza were from Utan Kayu in East Jakarta, and Sunter Jaya in North Jakarta respectively.

Both were believed to have been infected by sick birds in their neighborhoods.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>China reports two new bird flu outbreaks, as communities warned to take precautions</font>
(AP)

29 November 2005
<A href="http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2005/November/theworld_November761.xml&section=theworld&col=">Khaleej Times Online</a></center>

SHANGHAI, China - China has discovered two new bird flu outbreaks among poultry in the northwestern Xinjiang region and the central province of Hunan, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday.</b>

About 300 poultry died in Shanshan county in Xinjiang on Nov. 22 and regional experts confirmed on Nov. 25 that they were stricken by the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, the ministry said in a report posted on its Web site.

In Yongzhou city, Hunan province, about 400 birds died on Nov. 18 and the cause was determined on Nov. 25 to be the same strain of bird flu, the ministry said.

It said that 52,000 birds were culled within a 3 kilometer (2 mile) radius of the Shanshan county outbreak, and 13,500 within the same area surrounding the Yongzhou outbreak.

The report did not say what type of poultry were sickened by bird flu.

Authorities were conducting emergency vaccinations, it said.

China has reported 24 outbreaks of bird flu among poultry in recent weeks. It has reported three confirmed human cases of the disease, two of them fatal.

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>WHO experts investigate human bird flu cases in E. China province </font>

November 29 2005
<A href="http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200511/29/eng20051129_224389.html">People's Daily Online</a></center>

Experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) began Monday to investigate the two human bird flu cases in east China's Anhui Province with their Chinese counterparts. </b>

"Our purpose of this visit is to know more about the two human bird flu death cases and the prevention measures taken here," said Julie Hall, an official for communicable diseases with WHO Beijing office, adding they are at the invitation of the Chinese Ministry of Health (MOH) to do so.

The WHO experts group, together with experts from the Chinese Ministry of Health and Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, listened to a report made by the provincial health department of Anhui on the precautions it had taken to prevent human beings from infecting bird flu virus on Monday morning.

Then, the group went to the two counties of Xiuning and Zongyang on Monday afternoon, where the two human cases were reported, to carry out field investigation there in the following three days.

They would visit the disease control and prevention centers and the hospitals, where the two women were treated, in the two counties, said Julie Hall.

MOH confirmed the two human case of H5N1 bird flu in Anhui on Nov. 16 and 23 respectively.

The two cases involved a 24-year-old woman farmer surnamed Zhou in Zongyang County and a 35-year-old woman farmer surnamed Xu in Xiuning County.

Zhou and Xu both developed fever and pneumonia-like symptoms after contacts with sick and dead poultry. They died despite rescue efforts on Nov. 10 and 22 respectively.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Indonesian president urged local administrations to handle bird flu seriously</font>

November 29 2005
<A href="http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200511/29/eng20051129_224398.html">People's Daily online</a></center>

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono here Monday urged regions to handled bird flu cases seriously aimed at stopping the outbreak of the disease in the country. </b>

Certain local administrations are not yet handling avian influenza outbreaks seriously and tend to cover up the cases of infected people, said Susilo after a technical meeting with Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari and Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono.

"Governors, district heads and mayors should make serious efforts for their people. I hope they will carry out what we have instructed," Antara news agency quoted the president as saying.

Susilono said he would prefer to receive honest and objective reports on bird flu infection in a region rather than a false report to give the impression that the region was free from the disease.

"If that happens, the impact will be worse. People will become the victim of an irresponsible leader. I warn them once again, I will check them one by one," he said.

The government was planning to set up a system involving students and universities to monitor the conditions of poultry nation-wide.

In addition, a US pharmaceutical company, Baxter, had reportedly offered its cooperation to produce H5N1 vaccine for humans.

"I have taken the decision that it (the vaccine) will be made in Indonesia in cooperation with Bio Farma. As such, it will be closer to our people and the volume can be adjusted in accordance with existing need, Indonesia will also get the technology," the President said.

Last week, Roche International had expressed its rediness to give Indonesia a licence to produce Tamiflu, a recommended medicine for bird flu.

Currently, the Indonesian government was prioritizing efforts to overcome the outbreak in Jakarta, Banten, and West Java provinces where the bird flu infection rate was higher than in other provinces.

"We need door-to-door monitoring, both of the poultry and humans. Jakarta will begin door-to-door monioring," Susilo added.

So far, of the 12 people who had tested positive for the bird flu virus in Indonesia, seven had died. Eight others were suspected to have infected by the virus and three of them had died.

"Although the number has yet to increase significantly, I want the monitoring to reach all regions and nothing will be covered up, " Susilo stressed.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Bird flu 'domino effect' hits local wheat prices</font>

Tuesday, 29/11/2005
<A href="http://www.abc.net.au/rural/content/2005/s1519087.htm">ABCNet.com.au</a></center>

Bird flu is being blamed in part for the downturn in Australian wheat prices.

While China has culled many chickens, cutting back on the need for feed grain, marketers say the negative sentiment surrounding the disease has fuelled the price falls.</b>

New South Wales grain marketer Kevin Schwager says the disease has spooked traders along the entire marketing chain.

"There's a real domino effect from the bird flu virus in China," he said.

"The effect that it has is that it lessens the demand for soya beans and corn product from the US, which then dampens demand for Chicago Board of Trade futures contracts.

"That then spills over to the wheat pit.

"That dominos back to Australia as far as wheat export values."

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<B><center>EPIDEMICS

<font size=+1 color=brown>New Romanian Flu Outbreak Beyond Danube Delta</font>


<A href="http://www.terradaily.com/news/pollution-05zzd.html">New Romanian</a>
By Kate Walker
Washington (UPI) Nov 28, 2005</center>

Romania has reported its first case of avian influenza found outside the Danube Delta. The turkey, which was infected with an H5 strain of avian-flu, was found in Scarlatesti, in the eastern part of the country, during random tests of poultry.
Samples from the bird are being tested to establish whether it died from the H5N1 strain prevalent in Southeast Asia.</b>

As the village is isolated, and about 2 miles from any other inhabited area, the flu containment measures will not be large-scale. Instead the village has been quarantined, residents were given flu-shots Sunday, and as many as 17,000 birds have been culled.

Meanwhile:

-- Aid workers and health officials in Indonesia are concerned by the large-scale deaths of birds from avian influenza in the province of Aceh.

Although it is not the first area of Indonesia to suffer an avian-flu outbreak, there are still thousands of Acehnese made homeless by the 2004 tsunami who are living in close quarters in refugee camps in the region.

The conditions in refugee camps make them the ideal breeding grounds for a pandemic should human-to-human transmission occur.

-- Also in Indonesia, two further suspected cases of avian influenza in humans have been hospitalized and are in intensive care.

Confirmation of their status is awaiting test results from the World Health Organization, but the 25-year-old woman tested positive in initial tests taken last week. The man, aged 37, is only a suspected case.

-- A 61-year-old Malaysian man believed to be ill with avian influenza was confirmed Sunday to be free of the disease, and is instead believed to be suffering from a lung infection.

The man reported flu-like symptoms and respiratory difficulties five days after returning from a visit to China with his family.

Malaysia has not yet seen an incident of bird-flu in humans.

-- Taiwan announced Sunday that it will continue with the generic production of the anti-viral Tamiflu despite being denied a license by Roche, the Swiss manufacturers.

"We have to prepare enough Tamiflu to protect our people in case of a bird flu outbreak, so mass production is scheduled for next year. But we would only use the locally produced drugs if the Tamiflu we bought from Roche were not enough," Liao Chi-chou, director of the Bureau of Pharmaceutical Affairs for Taiwan's Department of Health said.

Taiwanese production of Tamiflu is intended as a fail-safe for its population, and the government has not ruled out the possibility of compensating Roche should generic versions of the drug be dispensed.

-- Shanghai has announced that it will begin screening international passengers for bird flu from Monday.

International travelers entering and leaving China through Shanghai International Airport will be asked to fill out a health declaration form stating whether or not they have had contact with birds, with people exhibiting symptoms of bird flu or have suffered any flu-like symptoms.

Travelers with high temperatures will be subjected to further examination and questioning, and those who have been in affected areas or come into contact with birds will be sent to hospital for treatment.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Many H5N1 cases bunched in families, report says</font>

Novemver 28 2005
<A href="http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/nov2805family.html">CIDRAP</A></center>

Nov 28, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – More than a third of the human cases of H5N1 avian influenza that occurred over a 19-month period were clustered within families, suggesting the possibility that some family members caught the virus from others, according to a recent report.</b>

Forty-one of 109 cases (38%) identified between January 2004 and July 2005 occurred in 15 families, with between two and five cases per family, according to the report by Sonja J. Olsen and colleagues, published as a letter in the November issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases. Olsen works in Thailand for the International Emerging Infections Program of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Most human cases of avian flu are believed to have stemmed from exposure to sick poultry. The virus has not yet shown an ability to spread easily between people, which is seen as the key missing prerequisite for an H5N1 pandemic.

Researchers previously identified one cluster, involving a young Thai girl and her mother and aunt in September 2004, as a probable result of person-to-person transmission. Too little information is available to conclude whether the virus spread from person to person in any of the other families, the new report says.

Family clusters don't necessarily mean the virus is spreading from person to person, the report notes. They may simply mean that relatives were exposed to H5N1-infected poultry at the same time.

However, in three family clusters, all in Vietnam, the first and second patients fell ill more than a week apart, which suggests that they probably didn't acquire the virus from the same source at the same time, the report says.

The authors also found that family clusters were slightly more common in the period from December 2004 through July 2005 than they were in the preceding year: 9 clusters in 243 days, or 3.7 per 100 days, versus 6 clusters in 365 days, or 1.6 per 100 days (relative risk, 2.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 6.3). The difference was similar when the researchers compared the period from December 2004 through July 2005 with the same 8-month period a year earlier.

Although this increase was not significant, the authors write, "We believe any cluster of cases is of great concern and should be promptly and thoroughly investigated because it might be the first indication of viral mutations resulting in more efficient person-to-person transmission."

The researchers defined a family cluster as two or more family members with laboratory-confirmed H5N1 avian flu or two or more family members with severe pneumonia or respiratory death, when at least one member had confirmed H5N1.

Of the 41 patients in the 15 family clusters, 25 (61%) died, the report says. Another four patients recovered, while three were never sick even though they tested positive for the virus. The outcomes for the other nine patients were unknown.

The article says that family clusters are still occurring, but they "do not appear to be increasing as a proportion of total cases."

In line with previous reports, the authors also note a decline in the overall death rate for human cases: 32 of 44 cases (73%) from December 2003 through November 2004, versus 23 of 65 cases (35%) from December 2004 through July 2005.

Olsen SJ, Ungchusak K, Sovann L, et al. Family clustering of avian influenza A (H5N1). Emerg Infect Dis 2005;11(11):1799-1801 [Full text]

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<center>

I sure wish I knew why the
news threads disappear -
every time I move one to the main
board... I cabnnot find it anywhere on
the main board - when i post it
to main... I gotta bump it! To find it!</center>

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Scientists say pigs could pass influenza virus to humans</font>

Tuesday, November 29, 2005
<A href="http://webstar.postbulletin.com/agrinews/356635654897335.bsp">Agri News - Michigan</a></center>

IOWA CITY, Iowa (AP) -- University of Iowa scientists say birds are not the only risk for human exposure to the influenza virus carried by animals. </b>

Despite the worldwide focus on the avian flu virus, research by Dr. Gregory Gray shows pigs, too, pose a threat for passing the virus to humans.

In a study published this week in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, Gray said hogs' genetic makeup make them perfect mixing vessels for producing new strains of influenza virus.

With more than 9,000 Iowa farms raising more than 25 million hogs annually, the study suggests monitoring farmers, veterinarians and meat processors for exposure to swine influenza.

If the avian flu virus or another pandemic strain enters the United States and infects swine or poultry flocks, Iowa's more than 200,000 swine and poultry workers could be at the front lines of infection, researchers said.

"We're really concerned about agricultural workers and their health," said Gray, a professor of epidemiology with the College of Public Health. "We want to make sure that whatever we can do to protect them can be done."

Between 2002 and 2004, researchers studied 111 Iowa farmers, 97 meat-processing workers, 65 veterinarians and 79 individuals uninvolved in the swine industry.

The survey found that farmers were the most likely to have antibodies in their bloodstream to fight off swine influenza, which researchers say indicates previous infection with the virus. Compared to the control group, veterinarians also had increased odds of higher antibody levels, while processors showed lower rates, perhaps from limited exposure to live pigs, the study found.

Most cases of swine flu produce mild symptoms or none at all, and the virus is not spread to humans through pork consumption, Gray said.

Researchers suggest creating a vaccination program and other health policies to control spread of the virus.

"Right now, swine workers are not included in the national pandemic plan, nor are they closely monitored for influenza," Gray said. "Should pandemic influenza virus strains enter the United States and these workers not be given special attention, we think it could be a really big problem for Iowa."

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Culling wild birds ineffective against flu: UN agency</font>

<A href="http://www.newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Bird+Flu&x=7&y=5">UN NEWS CENTRE</a> </center>

29 November 2005 – The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization () today warned against culling wild birds in cities in countries affected by bird flu, saying this could distract attention from the campaign to contain the disease among poultry in the battle against the virus that could spark a potentially lethal human pandemic.</b>

“This is unlikely to make any significant contribution to the protection of humans against avian influenza,” FAO senior officer responsible for infectious animal diseases Juan Lubroth said of reports that wild birds were being killed in Ho Chi Minh City in Viet Nam as a precautionary measure.

“There are other, much more important measures to be considered that deserve priority attention. Fighting the disease in poultry must remain the main focus of attention,” he added. “Wild bird species found in and around cities are different from the wetland waterfowl that have been identified as carriers of the avian influenza virus.”

The Agency has previously warned that the H5N1 strain that has hit several Asian countries is likely to be carried over long distances along the flyways of wild water birds to the Middle East, Europe, South Asia and Africa, with the potential to trigger a global human pandemic.

“Controlling the virus in poultry is the most effective way by which the likelihood of the bird flu virus acquiring human-to-human transmissibility can be reduced,” Mr. Lubroth said.

Ever since the first human case of H5N1, linked to widespread poultry outbreaks in Viet Nam and Thailand, was reported in January last year, UN health officials have warned that the virus could evolve into a human pandemic if it mutates into a form which could transmit easily between people.

The so-called Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-1920 is estimated to have killed from 20 million to 40 million people worldwide. Overall, there have been 132 reported human H5N1 cases, 68 of them fatal, all in South-East and East Asia. Some 150 million domestic birds have died or been culled in an effort to curb the spread.

FAO, along with the UN World Health Organization (WHO) and the inter-governmental World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), has recommend a series of measures to fight the virus, including improved veterinary services, emergency preparedness plans, and control campaigns such as culling infected animals, vaccination and compensation for farmers to encourage them to report outbreaks.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Govt advised to make NZ vaccine </font>

29 November 2005
By ANNA SAUNDERS
<A href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3494443a6160,00.html">STUFF:Political</a></center>

A New Zealand bird flu expert is urging the Government to consider producing a pandemic vaccine locally using existing agricultural facilities. </b>

Professor Robert Webster, a New Zealand influenza expert working in Memphis, warned that New Zealand may not be able to count on obtaining vaccines supplies from other countries quickly enough.

He told an ESR conference in Porirua yesterday that local facilities manufacturing animal vaccines should be considered as a back-up to sourcing vaccines from overseas.

But manufacturers say upgrading facilities could cost millions and take up to a year.

New Zealand has a contract with the Australian Government's Commonwealth Serum Laboratories (CSL) to be supplied with a vaccine within 15 to 27 weeks after a pandemic is recognised by the World Health Organisation.

Webster warned that unless contracts with overseas suppliers were "watertight", it was likely that overseas contractors would prepare vaccines for their local populations first.

Health authorities have also said that by the time a vaccine is developed, the first wave of the deadly virus could already have swept New Zealand.

The technology for making vaccines was "not that sophisticated", Webster said.

Auckland company ICPbio manufactures a sheep vaccine and operations manager Dr Andy Herbert was previously the vaccine development director at overseas influenza vaccine company Sanofi Pasteur.

Manufacturing a bird flu vaccine required a very different process to the one used at ICPbio and could take up to a year to convert facilities and millions of dollars.

It would be a "gamble" for the Government over whether the risk of an outbreak was serious enough, he said.

A spokeswoman for Pfizer New Zealand, which has animal vaccine facilities in Upper Hutt, said the company had not been approached by the Government but would be happy to meet.

But testing human medicines was very different to testing animal medicine.

An Agresearch spokesman would not comment on whether Webster's proposals were viable, saying it was speculative.

Upper Hutt-based Schering-Plough also manufactures an animal tetanus vaccine, but general manager Ian Porcin said making a bacterial vaccine was very different to making a viral vaccine.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Batten down for bird flu</font>

Chris Jones
30nov05
<A href="http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,17408300%255E664,00.html">Herald Sun</a></center>

STOCKMARKET investors have been told to start thinking seriously about their portfolio, with a long-feared human outbreak of bird flu now appearing almost certain.</b>

Among those investment banks which have begun advising clients about stockmarket bird flu plays is Citigroup, which has laid out a flowchart of possibilities and risks which would result from a pandemic.
According to Citigroup, the key question for investors is how many people would catch and die from the feared -- but now expected -- human transmissable form of bird flu.

It said the extent of the outbreak was key to any pandemic-related investment strategy.

While a mild pandemic would likely be quickly dealt with by health authorities, Citigroup said it would spark an initial sell-off in airlines, luxury goods makers, hotels, insurers and shopping mall companies followed by a quick rebound.

This provided an opportunity to buy into the oversold stocks when they bottomed out.

On the flipside, stocks to immediately benefit from a mild pandemic would be drug companies, hospital chains, cleaning-product makers and home entertainment providers.

But any stock price appreciation in these would be likely to quickly subside once the threat eased, meaning they should only be seen as short-term buys in such a scenario.

A virulent outbreak, on the other hand, would demand a different investment strategy, Citigroup says.

Rather than presenting an almost immediate buying opportunity, a major outbreak would lead to protracted weakness on the financial markets as the fundamentals deteriorated.

It would put a swift end to all unnecessary international travel (sparking a fall in airline and tourism related stocks) and force people to stay at home rather than mingle in pubs and restaurants (hurting stocks with exposure to malls, pubs and casinos).

Central banks would then come under intense pressure to ease interest rates aggressively to shore up their economies, flowing through to a second wave of stock sell-offs as declining economic activity hit home.

But under such a worst-case scenario, telecommunications companies would join the list of winners as people called their friends and relatives rather than travelling to see them.

The WHO has the current Pandemic Level at Phase 3.

Per the above, the WHO should soon raise their Pandemic Level to Phase 4.

I suspect that level 5 is when TS really hits the global economic fan.

WHO has developed a global influenza preparedness plan , which defines the stages of a pandemic, outlines the role of WHO, and makes recommendations for national measures before and during a pandemic. The phases are:

Interpandemic period

Phase 1 : No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low.

Phase 2 : No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease.

Pandemic alert period

Phase 3 : Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Phase 4 : Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

Phase 5 : Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Pandemic period

Phase 6 : Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.

Notes: The distinction between phases 1 and 2 is based on the risk of human infection or disease resulting from circulating strains in animals. The distinction is based on various factors and their relative importance according to current scientific knowledge. Factors may include pathogenicity in animals and humans, occurrence in domesticated animals and livestock or only in wildlife, whether the virus is enzootic or epizootic, geographically localized or widespread, and other scientific parameters.

The distinction among phases 3 , 4, and is based on an assessment of the risk of a pandemic. Various factors and their relative importance according to current scientific knowledge may be considered. Factors may include rate of transmission, geographical location and spread, severity of illness, presence of genes from human strains (if derived from an animal strain), and other scientific parameters.



http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/pandemics.htm

Click to expand...

STOCKMARKET investors have been told to start thinking seriously about their portfolio, with a long-feared human outbreak of bird flu now appearing almost certain.

Among those investment banks which have begun advising clients about stockmarket bird flu plays is Citigroup, which has laid out a flowchart of possibilities and risks which would result from a pandemic.
According to Citigroup, the key question for investors is how many people would catch and die from the feared -- but now expected -- human transmissable form of bird flu.

Click to expand...

that's it. Now I can officially worry. When the money people get serious about this, it's time for EVERYONE to get serious about it. period.

okie medicvet said:

that's it. Now I can officially worry. When the money people get serious about this, it's time for EVERYONE to get serious about it. period.

Click to expand...

that's funny -sort of. I don't think they're really concerned; but they are plotting to somehow profit from it.

bump

BTTT

Well, of COURSE it's freaking mutating. That's what virii do. And guess what, OBVIOUSLY it's occuring in family clusters, especially in Asia, where contact between humans occurs quite frequently within the family thus spreading the virus between the members, which incidentally share more genetic traits than people not related to each other.

Kar98 said:

Well, of COURSE it's freaking mutating. That's what virii do. And guess what, OBVIOUSLY it's occuring in family clusters, especially in Asia, where contact between humans occurs quite frequently within the family thus spreading the virus between the members, which incidentally share more genetic traits than people not related to each other.

Click to expand...

<center>

Then I must asume, from your tenor.
That I your HO we have nothing to
worry about with H5N1- just so long as
cousin Jill or Jack pay us a visit while
they are ill?



And that I am just *busting my Bricks*
hunting down the news and for no
good reason....</center>

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<center>

I would seem that the interest
has waned on this thread.



Time to send it to Infectious Diseases</center>