12/13 H5N1 | US Businesses Told PREPARE NOW/Texas Wakening Up to Threat

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<B><center> Tuesday, December 13, 2005. 3:38pm (AEDT)

Indonesia reports 9th human bird flu death
<font size=+1 color=red>Indonesia's ninth human death from bird flu has been confirmed, a senior Health Ministry official has said.</font>
<A href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200512/s1530073.htm">ABC NEWSONLINe.com</a></center>

A Hong Kong laboratory affiliated with the World Health Organisation (WHO) has confirmed that the man died from the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, which scientists fear will mutate into an easily spreadable human virus and spark a pandemic in which millions could die. </b>

"We have received confirmation. (The death toll) is now nine," Hariadi Wibisono said about the findings on the man who died last month.

The confirmation raises the number of deaths from the H5N1 avian influenza globally to 71, all in Asia, out of 138 people known to have been infected.

Five other people have been confirmed to have contracted the virus in Indonesia but have survived.

The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain is endemic in poultry in parts of Asia, and has affected birds in two-thirds of the provinces in Indonesia, a sprawling archipelago of some 17,000 islands and 220 million people.

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Preparing For A Flu Pandemic</font>

Dec 12, 2005, 10:04 PM CST
<A href="http://www.kxan.com/Global/story.asp?S=4236554&nav=menu73_2_2">KXAN.com</a></center>

Experts say it's not a matter of if but when a flu pandemic will hit home. But what would you do to keep you and your family safe?

Is the government ready to help?</b>

Those are just some of the questions healthcare workers tried to answer Monday in Austin.

"Avian flu is one of the things that's caused a great deal of concern," Dr. Susan Penfield with the Texas DSHS Infectious Disease Control said.

From Thailand to Ukraine and all around the world, the bird flu is a reality.

"Now whether or not this virus will ever mutate and spread from person to person to cause a pandemic, we don't know yet. But there are several signs it could happen so we'd be pretty stupid if we didn't do all we can to be prepared for it," Paul Glezen, MD, with Baylor College of Medicine said.

Healthcare workers know it's inevitable.

"It could happen next year or it could happen 10 years from now," Penfield said.

But the problem is...

"If this pandemic were to happen in the next couple years, we're definitely not there," Pascale Wortley, MD, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

"We're more ready than we were three or four years ago but we feel like we need to become more ready, and that's one of the purposes of this meeting," Penfield said.

It's a conference created to give all levels of healthcare providers the information and tools to help you and the community.

Healthcare workers aren't the only ones with access to pandemic prevention right now.

You can log onto the Centers for Disease Control Web site for tips of your own.

"With the whole idea being that the sooner you know something's going on and the sooner you respond, the more successful you'll be in terms of controlling a potential outbreak," David Lurie with Austin/Travis County HHS Department said.

The Austin/Travis County Health Department already has some plans in place including tracking diseases in schools and around the community.

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Memo on bird flu is okayed by cabinet</font>

By Atef Hanafi
13 December 2005
<A href="http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theuae/2005/December/theuae_December370.xml&section=theuae&col=">Khaleej Times</a></center>


ABU DHABI — The cabinet yesterday approved a memorandum by Shaikh Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, and Chairman of the National Emergency Committee tasked with tackling bird flu, regarding the requirements of the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries to develop a quarantine costing Dh5 million.</b>

The cabinet held its weekly meeting chaired by Shaikh Hamdan. It lauded the Islamic Summit convened in the holy city of Makkah and the statement issued by the leaders. It approved a memorandum by the Minister of Economy and Planning regarding UAE’s contribution to supporting the United Nations’ Census Project.

The cabinet stated that it was very proud of the speech delivered by the President, His Highness Shaikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, on the occasion of the 34th Anniversary of the UAE National Day, and what the speech embodied in the context of visionary strategies, national policies, and deep-rooted concern for the welfare and prosperity of UAE people.

The cabinet affirmed that it would take the necessary steps to implement the decisions and policies outlined by the President in his speech.

The cabinet stated that the directives on elections of members to the National Executive Council was a welcome step towards the contribution of UAE citizens in making decisions and drawing up national policies for their country to achieve development in all aspects.

It said the decision was the beginning of a move to enhance public participation in the nation’s affairs. It said that the Supreme Council’s decision to form a National Security Council was a clear sign of its awareness of regional and global developments.

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<B><center>13 December 2005 1308 hrs
Channelnewsasia.com</a>

<font size=+1 color=blue>Southeast Asia eyes network for bird flu drug </font></center>

KUALA LUMPUR : Southeast Asian countries said they would create a network to link stockpiles of Tamiflu so that the drug can be sent quickly through the region to battle any human outbreaks of bird flu. </b>

The measure, agreed at the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), would allow nations in need to get supplies of the anti-retroviral treatment on very short notice.

"The feeling is that with bird flu, we want to have adequate availability of medicine to cure people," Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon told reporters on Monday.

"Countries will come in and participate in the planning of how the medicine could be distributed. We're looking at it not so much from just a national level but more on a regional level," he said.

Tamiflu is considered the most effective treatment available for the highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu virus, which has killed more than 70 people in Asia since 2003. Indonesia confirmed another bird flu death on Tuesday.

Scientists warn that continued contact between infected birds and humans may eventually result in the virus mutating into a form that could be easily passed on by humans, sparking a pandemic that could kill millions.

Kantathi said that nations with sufficient stockpiles could send supplies to others in need, making them "available to be distributed to any potential affected area in a very short period of time."

"So everyone will come and say, 'I have this much, I need this much just for the country' and maybe we could use a system in which we can distribute" the drug, he said.

ASEAN Secretary General Ong Keng Yong said coordinated efforts were required so that every nation would not have to build up major supplies the drug.

"There is networking required because the sense is that it is going to be a tremendous drain on resources if every country will stockpile medicines, hospital supply or anti viral drugs," Ong told reporters.

"We are trying to find a way to do it in a very effective and economical way," he said. - AFP/de

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>New WHO rules may help fight bird flu: official</font>

Mon Dec 12, 2005 9:56 PM ET
<A href="http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=uri:2005-12-13T025614Z_01_SPI303586_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-REGULATIONS.xml&pageNumber=1&summit=">Reuters International News</a>
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent</center>

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New regulations aimed at making it easier for countries to share information about disease outbreaks will help fight avian influenza, a senior World Health Organization official said on Monday.</b>

The new regulations, along with the experience in controlling Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), should ease the way for cooperation should there be an influenza pandemic, said Dr. David Heymann, executive director for communicable diseases at WHO.

"SARS showed us that countries are willing to give up just a little bit of their sovereignty for the good of the world," Heymann said in an interview.

SARS swept out of southern China in 2002 and by the time it was contained in mid-2003 it had infected close to 8,000 people and killed 800.

It was caused by a virus in the coronavirus family that had never been seen before. Unprecedented public health measures helped control it before it spread widely, although it got as far as Canada via jet.

H5N1 bird flu is considered much more dangerous. It is entrenched in flocks across much of Asia and as far west as Ukraine and Romania. It is not yet easily passed to people but WHO has reported 137 cases and 70 deaths in five Asian countries.

WHO is urging affected countries to report H5N1 outbreaks right away and to get help in controlling them.

New rules, called the International Health Regulations and adopted by the World Health Assembly in May, build on lessons learned from SARS, Heymann said before describing the new rules to a meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Under previous rules, WHO member states only had to report cases of cholera, plague and yellow fever. Now they must report "all events that may constitute a public health emergency of international concern."

ENSURING SURVEILLANCE

Countries must also put into place the infrastructure to make sure they can do this -- meaning laboratories and staff who can diagnose disease outbreaks. And countries must report any public health risks they are aware of, even if they fall outside their territories.

Heymann said the new rules will help if H5N1 does cause a pandemic.

"What certainly would occur is collaboration between clinicians, virologists and biologists," Heymann said.

"Every day (during SARS) there were telephone conferences and video conferences and sharing of information." This was new since scientists and doctors previously jealously guarded their research for publication in prestigious journals.

Heymann was sent to meet with heads of state during the SARS crisis and found they were willing to take the serious consequences of having the virus present in their countries, including trade and travel restrictions.

"Never once did they try to push WHO to lift the regulations," he said.

But H5N1 could cause much greater disruption than SARS.

"SARS was much easier to control because it was such a low-transmissibility disease," Heymann said. "SARS you didn't spread probably until 10 days after you got sick."

People spread flu before they even know they are ill.

If you rate infectious diseases from one to 100, based on how infectious they are, SARS would rate at 20 to 30 percent while influenza rates 90 to 100 percent, Heymann said.

SARS also did not get into developing countries that had no way to monitor or report epidemics, Heymann added. That is something influenza could easily do with disastrous consequences.

There would be a "massive disruption of services," he said. "You have to distance yourself. You have to fend for yourself."

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<center>San Antonio, Texas

<B><font size=+1 color=red>Flu crisis presents unseen hurdles</font>

12/13/2005 12:00 AM CST
Don Finley
Express-News Medical Editor
<A href="http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/metro/stories/MYSA121305.1B.pandemicflu.d43f930.html">MySA.com</a></center>

AUSTIN — Driven by the embarrassing failures of the Hurricane Katrina response, government health officials are racing to prepare for the worst when it comes to an influenza pandemic. </b>

The problem is, they don't really know what a pandemic would look like or what tools they'll have to combat it, experts said Monday at a conference the Department of State Health Services sponsored.

"If this pandemic were to occur in the next couple of years, we're definitely not there," said Dr. Pascale Wortley, a medical officer with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Immunization Program.

The federal government released its pandemic flu plan last month. Texas and other states are developing their own plans in coordination with federal officials.

The current fear is that the H5N1 avian flu virus sweeping through domestic birds in Asia and Eastern Europe might mutate, enabling it to spread efficiently from person to person. The disease has already killed several dozen people who live and work in close contact with the birds.

Avian flu might not become pandemic in humans. But some strain of flu virus eventually will — as others have three times this century, including the 1918 outbreak that killed 20 million people around the world and 500,000 in the United States.

"Yes, a pandemic will occur," said Dr. W. Paul Glezen with the Influenza Research Center at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. "We just don't know when."

Glezen said the best way to be ready for a pandemic flu is to do a good job minimizing death and hospitalizations from traditional flu strains. Right now, he added, the nation is failing.

Despite an increase in the percentage of high-risk elderly people vaccinated against flu, from about 40 percent in 1989 to 67 percent in 1997, deaths and hospitalizations from flu have continued to rise. Studies show that older people have a reduced immune response to vaccine.

That might require rethinking current vaccination strategies to focus on vaccinating children and working adults, who get flu more often and spread it to high-risk populations, Glezen said.

Early detection will be critical to responding effectively to pandemic flu. But influenza is not among the diseases doctors are required to report to state health officials.

Instead, Texas relies on a network of about 70 volunteer sentinel clinics scattered across the state to report suspected flu cases — far short of the 200 it should have, said Irene Brown, an influenza surveillance coordinator with the state.

Wortley, of the National Immunization Program, said clinical trials of an experimental H5N1 vaccine have shown that it needs to be 12 times more potent than the normal flu vaccine — reducing by tenfold the ability to manufacture it quickly.

Other vaccine methods, including a vaccine made from human cell culture rather than chicken eggs, are in the works but years away. The largest part of $7.1 billion that President Bush has budgeted for pandemic flu would go to developing a cell-based vaccine.

Tamiflu, an antiviral drug, works to lessen the severity of bird flu. But the U.S. has managed to stockpile only a little more than 4 million doses, Wortley said. The new federal plan sets a goal of stockpiling enough antiviral medicine to treat a quarter of all Americans.

"How do you plan for something when there are so many unknowns?" Wortley said.

"We don't know what the epidemiology will look like — will working-age people be affected like they were in 1918 or not, or will it be the young and the elderly? We don't know how much vaccine or drugs will be available. We don't know to what extent community containment measures will be effective."

Wortley said Texas has an advantage over many other states because officials at all levels of government worked together in response to hurricane disasters this year.

"There's so much we don't know," she said. "I think one of the important points is just to not be paralyzed by that."

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Linkwell Receives Purchase Orders from 12 Hospitals to Fight Avian Flu </font>

13 December 2005 <A href="http://www.chinaknowledge.com/news_detail.asp?cat=general&ID=1610">(CHINA KNOWLEDGE PRESS) </a></center>

Dec. 13, 2005 (China Knowledge) – Linkwell Corp., a developer, manufacturer and distributor of healthcare related disinfectants in China, has received purchase orders from 12 hospitals in Shanghai. The hospitals have purchased over 30 units of Linkwell's air sterilizers designed to prevent the spread of airborne viruses such as avian flu and human influenza.</b>

Linkwell's air disinfectant devices have been approved by China's Ministry of Public Health as well as the Shanghai Bureau of Food and Drug Administration for sale nationwide. The company’s "Lvshaxing" air sterilization series was designed specifically to combat the spread of airborne viruses through ventilation systems.

Linkwell develops, manufactures, and distributes disinfectant healthcare products in China through its 90% owned subsidiary Shanghai Likang Disinfectant High Tech Company. Linkwell is a U.S. corporation headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

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I didn not post yesterday's H5N1 thread; so I will add those news articles to today's thread - Shakey

<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Britain could grind to a halt in a bird flu pandemic, experts fear </font>

Jo Revill, health Editor
Sunday December 11, 2005
<A href="http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,6903,1664655,00.html">The Observer Guardian</a></center>

Britain is not as prepared for bird flu as it should be, an influential Lords committee will say this week, because thousands of companies have not investigated how they would keep going during a pandemic that could last four months and affect a quarter of their employees.</b>

Supermarkets and smaller shops need to work out more detailed plans for maintaining food supplies. The committee also fears the transport industry has not yet come up with any strategic plan for keeping trains and buses running.

The Lords select committee on science and technology took evidence of the country's readiness for a pandemic from experts across Britain earlier this year.

Its report, to be published on Friday, is expected to say there are well developed plans for the health service but a worrying lack of schemes to keep other essential services running.

A pandemic would last for between three and four months and infect an estimated 25 per cent of the population so, according to government estimates, up to 7 per cent of staff would be off at any one time.

But some companies think the real rate of absenteeism would be far higher - up to 60 per cent off at any one time.

Kevin Hawkins, director of the British Retail Consortium, told the committee last month the great vulnerability would be a shortage of lorry drivers to distribute food: 'I think our main challenge would be to keep the food supply chain going.'

Other industry figures were worried about 'cascades of failure', such as the impact if mobile phone networks were closed down by a major power failure across London.

The health service, however, has spent the past year developing detailed plans to keep services running. The World Health Organisation has said Britain and France are in the forefront of developed nations with advanced plans for such an emergency.

Tomorrow doctors across this country can begin training in how to diagnose bird flu. The website Doctors. net.uk is giving online teaching to 20,000 of them for the Department of Health.

Dr Tim Ringrose, from the site, said: 'Within weeks we expect that the majority of doctors will be better prepared for a pandemic.'

A Thai boy yesterday became the 70th person to die of bird flu, after close contact with infected chickens. But doctors stressed that the five-year-old did not reach hospital until nine days after he fell ill, too late to save him.

There have now been 137 cases of human infection with the lethal H5N1 strain of bird flu, first seen in Hong Kong in 1997. It started to become a serious problem in Vietnam and Thailand in 2003, and since then has spread across south-east Asia.

The strain is still hard for humans to catch, but scientists fear it could mutate into a form easily transmitted between people. If that happens it will lose some of its power, but remain dangerous because humans have no natural immunity to it.

Britain has ordered a stockpile of the antiviral medication Tamiflu. It relieves the symptoms but is not a cure, and it is impossible to know how many lives it would save.

How well would they cope?

The police

Police forces have detailed plans for a bird flu pandemic. Their tasks will include guarding the antiviral medications in GPs' surgeries, preventing civil unrest and helping mortuary staff. Large gatherings such as football matches would be cancelled to curb the spread of infection.

Schools

Each local education authority will have to decide for itself whether to keep schools open. In the first fortnight of a pandemic, those in the infected areas might shut, as children often carry it into the home.

Hospitals

When a pandemic comes, all routine surgery will be cancelled and beds set aside for patients with serious flu complications. There is a nationwide shortage of specialist equipment such as ventilators that would be needed to keep thousands of patients alive, but intensive care doctors are looking at how to reorganise hospitals to give the best care.

Shops

Supermarkets are working on plans for ensuring food gets to the shops. Hauliers may only be able to deliver basic goods. There might have to be limits on how much each family could buy.

Transport

Very little evidence that transport companies have planned for a pandemic. Should one happen, train and bus drivers would be off sick so train companies would only run limited services. The government has asked them for detailed plans to ensure that commuters could still get to work.

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>New office to direct health crisis responses</font>

December 11 2005
<A href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200512/s1528492.htm">ABC Online</a></center>

The Federal Government is going to provide $185 million over five years to boost Australia's capacity to respond to major health emergencies like an outbreak of bird flu.</b>

The money will fund an office of health protection within the Health Department, which will be based in Canberra.

It will coordinate a national response to health emergencies.

Also included in the funding is $80 million to purchase additional antivirals and antibiotices for the national medical stockpile.

Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott says there should be enough medicine to cover 28 per cent of the population in the event of a bird flu outbreak.

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<B><center>Ukraine bird flu 'fatal to humans'
December 10 2005
<A href="http://news.scotsman.com/latest_international.cfm?id=2381402005">Scotsman.com News</a></center>

<font size=+0 color=green>A Russian veterinary official has said that the bird flu strain found in Ukraine is the same one that has decimated flocks of birds in Asia, a Russian agency reported.</font>

Ukrainian officials refused to confirm the report.


Ukraine announced its first case of bird flu on December 3, revealing that some 2,500 domestic fowl had died suddenly in a marsh area on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea.</b>

The Health Ministry reported that the outbreak, initially confined to six villages, had spread to nine by Friday, and dying birds were reported in a total of 16 villages and the peninsula's regional capital, Simferopol.

Authorities sent samples from the dead birds to laboratories in Britain and Italy, seeking to confirm whether the strain was H5N1, the same type that has affected Asia.

Experts fear the strain could trigger a human flu pandemic if it mutates into a form that is easily spread between people. Since 2003, the virus has killed at least 69 people in Asia - most of them farm workers who came into close contact with infected birds.

Sergei Dankvert, the chief of Russia's Federal Veterinary Service, was quoted by ITAR-Tass as saying that a laboratory in the Russian city of Vladimir had confirmed the strain found in Ukraine was "the so-called Asian strain H5N1 that poses a potential threat to man."

The Russian veterinary service press department could not confirm the ITAR-Tass report, and the laboratory, the All-Russia Research Institute of Animal Protection, referred callers to the Agriculture Ministry in Moscow, which oversees the vet service.

Petro Kovalenko, a senior official at Ukraine's Veterinary Service, however, said they had not received any confirmation.

He refused to comment on whether the Russian laboratory results would satisfy Ukraine, saying the main priority was to continue working to stem the outbreak. Earlier, the Agriculture Ministry had said it would wait for findings considered more definitive from a British laboratory.

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<B><font size=+2 color=blue><center>Business <u>urged to prepare now</u> for possible pandemic flu</font>

By Marilyn Geewax
Palm Beach Post-Cox News Service</a>
Sunday, December 11, 2005</center>

WASHINGTON — In 1999, business owners spent December scrambling to prepare for Y2K, a software glitch that threatened to cause computer chaos when the calendar rolled over to 2000.

Today they must brace for yet another potentially expensive disruption: an avian flu pandemic.</b>

Corporations need to "anticipate and prepare now" for the possible emergence of a virus that could sicken or kill many workers, disrupt supply chains, shut down essential government services and make overseas travel impossible, according to Robert Wilkerson, corporate preparedness expert at Kroll Inc., a New York-based risk consulting company.

In survey released Dec. 2 by the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions and the ERISA Industry Committee, 66 percent of employers said their company had not adequately planned to protect itself from a pandemic flu outbreak. Another 14 percent said their company had adequately planned, and 20 percent were undecided.

But just as with Y2K, businesses are facing high costs to cope with a problem that may not materialize.

The unknowns are so great that many smaller businesses are ignoring the threat. Larger corporations, however, are gearing up to minimize potential disruptions, he said.

"There are some obvious parallels with Y2K because the flu would be a global event" with the potential to derail economic growth, Wilkerson said.

The sense of urgency is greater this time because a flu pandemic could be a mass killer, he said.

"There were a number of people who read about Y2K in 1997 but didn't do anything about it until 1999," he said. "People were worried about possible accidents, but they didn't think it would have an immediate impact on health and life."

At a Council on Foreign Relations seminar last month, Gerald Komisar, senior vice president for insurance giant American International Group Inc., said that if a flu pandemic were to erupt, travel restrictions might prevent AIG from bringing its overseas workers home to hunker down.

Moreover, the company would "have a lot of clients that are going to be dependent on us in a scenario where they will need to file claims," he said. As a result, AIG plans to keep employees in place but make sure they can telecommute.

"We need to make it possible for those key people... to be able to work at home," he said.

The need to expand telecommuting capabilities should be a high priority even for companies whose workers are in the United States, Wilkerson said.

In a pandemic, government officials here might shut down mass transit systems or order people to stay home.

Even in the absence of government edicts, people may decide to stay home because they are sick or fear catching the disease. Many will have to stay home with children whose schools have been closed, he said.

But many businesses don't lend themselves to telecommuting. Health care workers, food preparers, repair technicians, factory workers and many others must show up at the workplace.

Kim Elliott, deputy director for Trust for America's Health, a nonprofit health policy group, said such companies must "identify their absolute core functions and then cross-train workers" so that if one is sick another can fill in.

Smaller companies that can't afford to expand computer capacity or launch massive training programs still should prepare for a pandemic by examining their labor policies, she said.

For example, companies should have compensation policies that allow workers to stay home when sick, she said.

Often, infectious people come to work because of "the fear of losing wages or even their jobs," she said. "The one thing you don't want is to have people coming to work sick" and spreading disease.

Kroll's Wilkerson said that just as the threat of Y2K forced many business to upgrade their computers, flu preparations could have some positive effects even if the pandemic never strikes.

Companies will be in better shape to face other disasters that might be caused by terrorists, nuclear accidents or Mother Nature.

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza so far has inflicted most of its economic harm on the poultry industry, particularly in Asia. That's because the virus, in its current form, primarily affects birds.

But H5N1 has been transmitted from birds to humans in some areas, killing at least 68 people so far, according to the World Health Organization.

Health officials fear that the virus could mutate and develop the ability to spread easily from human to human. If that was to happen, a pandemic could spread worldwide within months, causing illness, absenteeism and death.

In a worst-case scenario, 150 million people could die.

The economic impact could be enormous. When severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, emerged in Asia in 2003, travel was disrupted in the region for months. Businesses lost an estimated $60 billion.

In the case of a bird flu pandemic, the World Bank estimates losses might hit $800 billion, causing a 2 percent decline in global economic output.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Frist warns against delaying flu funds </font>

The Associated Press
Published: December 11, 2005
<A href="http://www.adn.com/24hour/politics/story/2968939p-11647198c.html">Anchorage Daily News</a></center>

WASHINGTON (AP) - Failure by Congress to immediately approve the president's request for $7.1 billion in emergency funds would hamper efforts to prepare for a possible outbreak of bird flu, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said Sunday. </b>

"It had better pass" before Congress adjourns for the year, said Frist, R-Tenn. "We need to be prepared. I'm very hopeful that we will invest $7.1 billion to look at prevention, to look at care, to look at treatment."

Federal officials spent four hours on Saturday in a drill to see how well the government was ready to handle an outbreak. They said saving lives will require more planning in local communities and increased vaccine production.

The prospects for the $7.1 billion are not clear. Conservatives in the House oppose rubber-stamping the request without finding spending cuts elsewhere in the budget.

Fears of a pandemic have increased as a virus infecting millions of birds has spread throughout Asia and parts of Europe. Bird flu has not yet appeared in the United States or spread from person to person. But officials worry it could mutate and, because humans have no immunity to it, become as contagious globally as the annual flu.

Citing a new report on the potential economic fallout of a pandemic, Frist noted that the request is just a fraction of the $675 billion hit that the economy would take, killing an estimated 2 million Americans and sickening 90 million others.

"I don't think it's going to happen right now or tomorrow. But if it does happen, it's devastating," Frist said on "Fox News Sunday."

Around Asia's markets: Avian flu casts pall over H.K. hoteliers

By Hanny Wan
Bloomberg News

MONDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2005


Shares of Hong Kong's hotel owners are slumping amid concern that bird flu will drive away business, just as severe acute respiratory syndrome did two years ago.

The stock price of Regal Hotels International, which operates five hotels in Hong Kong and two in Shanghai, has fallen 23 percent since two United Nations teams said in late June that an outbreak of bird flu in the western Chinese province of Qinghai might spread. Shares of Shangri-La Asia, the region's largest luxury-hotel operator, are down about 10 percent.

"Investors are trying to stay away from hotel stocks because of emerging bird-flu cases," said Kenny Tang, head of research at Tung Tai Securities in Hong Kong. "People will still try to avoid hotel stocks unless it is confirmed there won't be any more bird-flu outbreaks."

Hotel chains said they have seen little effect on their bookings. Business hotels run by companies including Regal and Global Hyatt reserved 10,000 rooms for attendees at the World Trade Organization meeting that runs this week, said James Lu, executive director of the Hong Kong Hotels Association.

Health officials are concerned that the bird-flu virus could mutate and cause a pandemic among humans. Two years ago, Hong Kong's hotel occupancy rates slumped when the SARS outbreak killed 299 people in the city.

China has reported 31 outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry this year. In the past two years, avian flu has infected at least 133 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia and China and killed 68, the World Health Organization said Nov. 29. China has reported at least five cases of human infection as of Thursday.

The prospect that the disease may spread to Hong Kong poses a threat to the increase in occupancy rates since the end of the SARS outbreak. Hotels benefited from a surge in tourist arrivals after China's government made it easier for mainland residents to visit Hong Kong.

Regal is the third-worst performer in the 201-member Hang Seng Composite index since the beginning of September. Only HKR International, a property developer, and IDT International, a consumer-electronics company, have fallen more.

During the 12 months through July, shares of Regal almost tripled and shares of Shangri-La Asia jumped 86 percent. Shares of Hongkong & Shanghai Hotels, the Hong Kong-based company that owns the Peninsula chain of luxury hotels, gained 82 percent. Since then, Regal has fallen 32 percent, Shangri-La lost 16 percent, while Hongkong & Shanghai Hotels dropped nearly 11 percent.

The decline in Regal was exacerbated by a failure to reach agreement with Las Vegas Sands to build a hotel in Macao, said Andes Cheng, an analyst at South China Finance & Management in Hong Kong.

About 3.4 million business travelers visit Hong Kong annually, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board. The meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions area "is the fastest growing segment and the biggest spender as far as hotel spending is concerned," CitisecOnline.com said in a July report.

The trade organization meeting will be the first gathering of trade ministers from all WTO member countries since the 2003 meeting in Cancun, Mexico. Hong Kong expects 11,000 delegates and journalists to the city. The meeting may also draw another 10,000 protesters.

Hotels may also benefit from the Dec. 21 opening of AsiaWorld-Expo, an exhibition and event venue integrated with the international airport. The exhibition center has teamed up with 12 hotels that can offer up to 1,600 rooms at any time, and has more than 30 events confirmed for next year.

Shares of Hong Kong's hotel owners are slumping amid concern that bird flu will drive away business, just as severe acute respiratory syndrome did two years ago.

The stock price of Regal Hotels International, which operates five hotels in Hong Kong and two in Shanghai, has fallen 23 percent since two United Nations teams said in late June that an outbreak of bird flu in the western Chinese province of Qinghai might spread. Shares of Shangri-La Asia, the region's largest luxury-hotel operator, are down about 10 percent.

"Investors are trying to stay away from hotel stocks because of emerging bird-flu cases," said Kenny Tang, head of research at Tung Tai Securities in Hong Kong. "People will still try to avoid hotel stocks unless it is confirmed there won't be any more bird-flu outbreaks."

Hotel chains said they have seen little effect on their bookings. Business hotels run by companies including Regal and Global Hyatt reserved 10,000 rooms for attendees at the World Trade Organization meeting that runs this week, said James Lu, executive director of the Hong Kong Hotels Association.

Health officials are concerned that the bird-flu virus could mutate and cause a pandemic among humans. Two years ago, Hong Kong's hotel occupancy rates slumped when the SARS outbreak killed 299 people in the city.

China has reported 31 outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry this year. In the past two years, avian flu has infected at least 133 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia and China and killed 68, the World Health Organization said Nov. 29. China has reported at least five cases of human infection as of Thursday.

The prospect that the disease may spread to Hong Kong poses a threat to the increase in occupancy rates since the end of the SARS outbreak. Hotels benefited from a surge in tourist arrivals after China's government made it easier for mainland residents to visit Hong Kong.

Regal is the third-worst performer in the 201-member Hang Seng Composite index since the beginning of September. Only HKR International, a property developer, and IDT International, a consumer-electronics company, have fallen more.

During the 12 months through July, shares of Regal almost tripled and shares of Shangri-La Asia jumped 86 percent. Shares of Hongkong & Shanghai Hotels, the Hong Kong-based company that owns the Peninsula chain of luxury hotels, gained 82 percent. Since then, Regal has fallen 32 percent, Shangri-La lost 16 percent, while Hongkong & Shanghai Hotels dropped nearly 11 percent.

The decline in Regal was exacerbated by a failure to reach agreement with Las Vegas Sands to build a hotel in Macao, said Andes Cheng, an analyst at South China Finance & Management in Hong Kong.

About 3.4 million business travelers visit Hong Kong annually, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board. The meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions area "is the fastest growing segment and the biggest spender as far as hotel spending is concerned," CitisecOnline.com said in a July report.

The trade organization meeting will be the first gathering of trade ministers from all WTO member countries since the 2003 meeting in Cancun, Mexico. Hong Kong expects 11,000 delegates and journalists to the city. The meeting may also draw another 10,000 protesters.

Hotels may also benefit from the Dec. 21 opening of AsiaWorld-Expo, an exhibition and event venue integrated with the international airport. The exhibition center has teamed up with 12 hotels that can offer up to 1,600 rooms at any time, and has more than 30 events confirmed for next year.

"It could happen next year or it could happen 10 years from now," Penfield said.

But the problem is...

"If this pandemic were to happen in the next couple years, we're definitely not there," Pascale Wortley, MD, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

"We're more ready than we were three or four years ago but we feel like we need to become more ready, and that's one of the purposes of this meeting," Penfield said.

Click to expand...

Things almost always strike when people are the least ready for them to...

I hope and pray though that in this instance particularly that it isn't the case. I hope that we as a species are given enough time to prepare..

"SARS showed us that countries are willing to give up just a little bit of their sovereignty for the good of the world," Heymann said in an interview.

Uh, No that was not giving up sovereignty, that was getting and giving help as needed. Part of being in the 'Global' society. :yak:

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<B><center>Public must not become inured to flu warnings

December 13 2005
<A href="http://www.coloradoan.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051213/OPINION01/512130308/1014/OPINION">The Coloradoan</a>

<font size=+1 color=red>Public health officials correct to plan now for potential crisis</font>


Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.</center>

Local, national and world health officials appear to be heeding that sage advice as they study how best to approach a potential avian flu pandemic.</b>

In November, World Health Organization officials said the rapid spread of bird flu in the past year is contributing to concerns that the current bird virus could mutate into a form that could spread easily from person to person.

"We don't know when this will happen. But we do know that it will happen," Lee Jong-Wook, director general of WHO said in a USA Today story.

Dr. Adrienne LeBailly, director of Larimer County Department of Health and Environment, has been discussing the potential for a pandemic for years. Last week, county health officials and local leaders met to discuss possible reaction to a pandemic.

In Colorado, such an outbreak could mean up to 30 percent of residents will become ill and 2 percent to 5 percent of the population - most of whom would be younger than 35 - could die from the virus. Schools, many businesses, daycare centers, malls and theaters would close to prevent the spread of the flu. City services, including utilities, may not be operational because workers might not be available. A vaccine could take months to create and distribute.

Those are frightening scenarios. Yet, such stark possibilities are precisely what health officials should be considering as they develop action plans to both thwart the virus and treat its victims. Certainly, there is no guarantee that avian flu will grow into a pandemic, but preparation and training now will be the key to saving lives later if the crisis occurs.

Public health officials will be the people carrying the water when it comes to dealing with the ramifications from avian flu. The challenge rests not just in the details, but in the message. They are charged with keeping concerns about avian flu on the public agenda without creating undue panic. Ring the alarm without alarming the masses, so to speak. The public, in turn, cannot be inured to these warnings.

Certainly there is no guarantee avian flu will grow into a pandemic, but preparation and training now will be the key to saving lives later if the crisis occurs.

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<B><center>Economy in B.C. 'more at risk' from bird flu

<font size=+1 color=brown>Pandemic threat greater here because we rely on trade with Asia, economist says </font>

Wency Leung
<A href="http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/story.html?id=6a58f447-bc0b-415a-abeb-0b1e054a3819&k=24594">Vancouver Sun</a>
Published: Tuesday, December 13, 2005 </center>

An avian influenza pandemic would likely hurt B.C.'s economy more than the rest of the country, and Vancouver may be particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on trade with Asia, according to an economist with the Asian Development Bank.</b>

Tourism, trade and service-related businesses -- all of which contribute in large part to B.C.'s economy -- would be hardest hit by a flu pandemic that would have the potential to spur a global recession and cause global trade to contract 14 per cent, Erik Bloom said in an interview.

"You're a service centre, much like Hong Kong or Singapore . . . So, you'll be relatively worse off than Ontario or Manitoba," said Bloom, who last month co-wrote an Asian Development Bank report titled Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia.

"Manitoba will likely feel an uncomfortable recession . . . . They'll survive. Here, as a service centre, you'll be hit more severely."

Medical experts have warned that avian influenza could develop into a global pandemic, causing large-scale health and economic damage, should it mutate into a form transmissible between humans.

Based on the economic impact of SARS in 2003, Bloom projected that a bird flu pandemic could pose the most serious threat to development in Asia since the financial crisis of 1997. It would cause a slump in consumer confidence and a sharp decline in the demand for goods and services, he said.

A pandemic would also affect the supply of goods and services as ill workers were forced to stay at home.

For the Canadian economy, however, the aggregate impact of a pandemic will not be as serious as one might expect, Bloom said. Canadians may curb their spending abroad and exports may decline, but Canadians will be more inclined to spend their money at home, he said.

However, he added that increased domestic spending might not help B.C., since the province's economy depends on imports as well as exports.

The housing boom in Vancouver could also be impacted as real estate sales to foreigners would decrease if restrictions on travel were introduced, Bloom said.

A pandemic would also hurt B.C. companies trying to establish ties in Asian countries such as China, where a more personalized approach to business requires face-to-face meetings.

Bloom, who is based in the Philippines, noted, however, that there is no way of accurately predicting the consequences of a pandemic, nor how or when it will occur.

But, he said, based on the experiences of SARS, the psychological effects on the economy will likely be wide-reaching.

"SARS wasn't easy to catch and yet reaction to that was massive," he said. "The fear of the disease is greater than the actual impact of the disease." Market overreaction, as well as government bans on imports and travel could further exacerbate any economic damage, Bloom said.

But he predicted that the negative effects of a pandemic on the economy will not likely last more than two or three years.

"I don't think it's going to last forever," he said. "Experience from other big diseases show that the economy can recover quite quickly."

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Australia 'unprepared' for bird flu</font>

From: AAP By Danny Rose
December 13, 2005
<A href="http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,17562822-29277,00.html">www.news.com.au</a></center>

IF a bird flu pandemic were to hit Australia tomorrow, front-line GPs and health authorities would face vital lines of communication jammed with red tape, the Australian Medical Association (AMA) has warned.</b>

A forum convened to discuss the nation's frontline response to a flu pandemic has heard the federal government's pledge of an extra $180 million would not deliver the streamlined system of communication sought by GPs.
AMA President Dr Mukesh Haikerwal told forum attendees in Melbourne today that GPs also felt they had been ignored during the planning process, and they were under-prepared for a mass flu outbreak which could kill up to 44,000 people and affect a quarter of Australia's population.

"The funding doesn't appear to cover the development of a comprehensive communication system that permits doctors, hospitals and other health facilities to get access to the right information at the right time from a single reliable source," the AMA president said today.

In his opening address, Dr Haikerwal also said critical early warning systems were not adequate and there was not enough information going out to GPs who "do not feel they know what is going on".

"They do not trust that it will be okay on the day, the weeks and months when the health system will be overwhelmed with critically ill people," he said.

The comments follow Sunday's announcement by Federal Health Minister Tony Abbot that an extra $184.8 million would be spent over five years to boost the nation's bird flu preparedness.
Dr Haikerwal also said it was important to remind the public that recent cases of avian flu seen in Asia were different from a pandemic flu.

He said the virus, in its present form, could not be transmitted between people.

"It can only become a pandemic after significant mutation of the virus," Dr Haikerwal said, adding efforts in Asia would reduce the chance of this occurring.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Bird flu lines jammed, AMA warning</font>

December 13, 2005 - 11:19PM
<A href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Bird-flu-lines-jammed-AMA-warning/2005/12/13/1134236068901.html">TheAge.com.au</a></center>

AdvertisementIf a bird flu pandemic were to hit Australia, front-line GPs and health authorities would face vital lines of communication jammed with red tape, the Australian Medical Association (AMA) has warned.</b>

A forum convened to discuss the nation's frontline response to a flu pandemic has heard the federal government's pledge of an extra $180 million would not deliver the streamlined system of communication sought by GPs.

AMA President Dr Mukesh Haikerwal told forum attendees in Melbourne on Tuesday that GPs also felt they had been ignored during the planning process, and they were under prepared for a mass flu outbreak which could kill up to 44,000 people and affect a quarter of Australia's population.

"The funding doesn't appear to cover the development of a comprehensive communication system that permits doctors, hospitals and other health facilities to get access to the right information at the right time from a single reliable source," the AMA president said on Tuesday.

In his opening address, Dr Haikerwal also said critical early warning systems were not adequate and there was not enough information going out to GPs who "do not feel they know what is going on".

"They do not trust that it will be okay on the day, the weeks and months when the health system will be overwhelmed with critically ill people," he said.

The comments follow Sunday's announcement by Federal Health Minister Tony Abbot that an extra $184.8 million would be spent over five years to boost the nation's bird flu preparedness.

Dr Haikerwal also said it was important to remind the public that recent cases of avian flu seen in Asia were different from a pandemic flu.

He said the virus, in its present form, could not be transmitted between people.

"It can only become a pandemic after significant mutation of the virus," Dr Haikerwal said, adding efforts in Asia would reduce the chance of this occurring.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Planning for a pandemic</font>

13 Dec 2005
<A href="http://www.management-issues.com/display_page.asp?section=blog&id=2852">www.management-issues.com</a></center>

Thousands of companies in Britain have not planned how they will keep going during a bird flu pandemic, with the melt-down of public transport services and disruption to the food distribution chain among the biggest worries taxing emergency planners.</b>

A pandemic would last for between three and four months and infect an estimated 25 per cent of the population so, according to government estimates, up to 7 per cent of staff would be off at any one time.

But some companies think the real rate of absenteeism would be far higher - up to 60 per cent off at any one time.

Other industry figures were worried about 'cascades of failure', such as the impact if mobile phone networks were closed down by a major power failure across London.

In particular, the Guardian suggests, there is little evidence that transport companies have planned for a pandemic. Should one happen, train and bus drivers would be off sick so train companies would only run limited services.

"The government has asked them for detailed plans to ensure that commuters could still get to work," the Guardian adds.

The Guardian | Britain could grind to a halt in a bird flu pandemic, experts fear

Back during the run-up to y2k a Netizen named Infomagic published an essay called Charlotte's Web about the impact that even small disruptions would have on the network of services we require to maintain civilization. I'm sure most of us here remember it. After reading this thread, I have to ask: Won't bird flu make Charlotte's Web come true?

Saying that only 7 percent of a company's staff will be sick at any one time ignores the fact that almost 100 percent will be terrified of catching it and doing everything possible to avoid exposure. I have a hard time believing that the cashiers and stock clerks and floor managers at the local supermarket are going to be working when they come into contact with thousands of people every day, any one of whom can infect them with a potentially fatal disease just by breathing in their direction.

So what happens when the majority -- or even just a significant minority -- of people decide to stay home? How long will water systems and power networks and the Internet continue to function without constant maintenance? And how long will the recovery take, given what we've already seen on the Gulf Coast?

Could be interesting.

CW

>So what happens when the majority -- or even just a significant minority -- of people decide to stay home?

They won't. They have bills to pay. There will be a significant portion of idiots who will keep working, even if they are extremely ill. I see that now, especially amongst 20-something guys living away from home for the first time. They deny being ill until they pass out or have an accident at work that requires a trip to the hospital.