01/01 H5N1 | Honolulu Foresees 1000 Deaths-Roads Closed

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<B><center>Flu plan foresees 1,000 dead, roads closed

• PDF: State report on flu preparedness

By Kevin Dayton
Advertiser Big Island Bureau
January 01 2006
<A href="http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060101/NEWS15/601010334/1001/NEWS">honoluluadversiser.com</a>
<font size=+0 color=blue>THE STATE'S DRAFT "PANDEMIC INFLUENZA PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE PLAN" DESCRIBES IN DETAIL:</font></center>

How various agencies would coordinate during an outbreak.

How the disease would be tracked.

How vaccines and medicine would be distributed.</b>

The state plan to cope with an influenza pandemic in Hawai'i paints a grim picture of the possibility of overwhelmed hospitals, 1,000 influenza deaths statewide in eight weeks, and hospital workers who become sick themselves trying to cope with the outbreak.

The model the state used to estimate the impact of an influenza pandemic assumes one in four people statewide would become ill, and 5,000 would need to be hospitalized in an eight-week outbreak.

The draft "Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan" warns that the state's isolation may mean outside help will be slow to arrive, especially if the pandemic is sweeping Mainland states just as Hawai'i begins to suffer its effects.

Of all of the hazards that could confront Hawai'i's hospitals, no threat is greater than the possibility of an influenza pandemic, according to an analysis by the state Department of Health.

Dr. Linda Rosen, the department's deputy director for health resources administration, said the "million-dollar question" is how likely such a pandemic really is.

"All we can say is there will be another infectious disease threat some time in the future," she said. "It's inevitable, given the history of the spread of disease through populations, but whether that's going to happen in six months or six years is really very difficult to predict.

"I think everybody would agree that this type of planning, with a sense of urgency, is appropriate, because it could come sooner, and we want to be as prepared as we could be."

Experts believe there would be one to six months between the identification of a novel influenza virus, and a widespread outbreak in the U.S. How dangerous a new pandemic might be would depend on how severe the virus is, how readily it passes from person to person, and how communities respond to the outbreak.

The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic killed more people in the United States than all the wars of the 20th century combined, and the report notes the world is much more densely populated and interconnected now.

CONTROL OF MEDICINE

The draft Hawai'i plan, which is pending final approval from state Health Director Chiyome Fukino, calls for the Health Department to stockpile and assume control over all antiviral medicines as an alert is issued or influenza virus first appears in animals.

The plan is to distribute the drugs to provide the most benefit, vaccinating essential people such as high-risk medical personnel first. However, the report repeatedly observes there may not be an effective vaccine available during the pandemic, and it would likely take at least six to eight months from the time the virus is identified before any vaccine arrives.

Anti-viral medications should be stockpiled in advance because that would be the most effective medicine available in the early stages of a pandemic, and exploding worldwide demand would mean the anti-virals probably would not be available after a pandemic alert, according to the plan.

Gov. Linda Lingle last month announced plans to ask the Legislature for $15 million next session to stockpile antiviral drugs for 300,000 people, and for data management systems to track the effectiveness of the drugs during a pandemic.

The pandemic plan calls for public health campaigns in the early phases of the alert to teach people about hygiene and use of masks if that becomes necessary, and to encourage people to plan for the possibility of quarantine.

OPERATIONS CENTER

A state Health Department Operations Center would be activated as the first cases appear in humans, with hospitals and laboratories preparing their "surge capacity" to cope with expected additional patients.

By then, the Health Department will have stepped up surveillance efforts to make sure experts understand who is getting sick, and where they are.

As it becomes clear the virus is being transmitted between humans, the plan calls for quarantine and isolation efforts to try to stop the influenza spread. Quarantine can be declared by the state health director or the governor, and state Civil Defense would oversee those efforts with the help of law enforcement authorities.

The plan sets out a progression of strategies to restrict the spread of the flu, starting with educational campaigns to remind people to limit travel and avoid public gatherings. If the epidemic spreads, authorities would take steps such as closing schools, limiting the use of private vehicles, stopping bus service and closing major highways to limit travel.

'DO IT RIGHT'

Dr. Duane Gubler, director of the Asia-Pacific Institute of Tropical Medicine and Infectious Diseases at the University of Hawai'i's John A. Burns School of Medicine, said the state plan is a good one, but it needs money and support from other arms of the government, including the Legislature.

"Do it, and do it right, and make it broad enough that it will protect us against all these exotic infectious agents that will be coming in on the airplanes that are so vital to our survival here," Gubler said.

He said Hawai'i's vulnerability was underscored by a recent paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that ranked Honolulu among the top 25 central cities in the world in the global airport network.

He praised the efforts of the Health Department in enlisting more doctors and other healthcare providers in state disease surveillance efforts to more rapidly report patients who may be suffering from new infectious diseases.

Identifying a new pathogen early will be critical to containing the epidemic, and the money the state and federal government spend on preparation now will be worth it, he said.

"The pandemic is only the latest threat. If you look at the last 25 years, we've seen this dramatic global re-emergence of infectious diseases, we have seen repeatedly the introduction of exotic diseases into the United States," Gubler said.

HOSPITALS LACK SPACE

One major fear is that Hawai'i hospitals, which in normal times have about 90 percent of their beds filled, would be utterly swamped in a pandemic.

Toby Clairmont, emergency program manager for the Healthcare Association of Hawai'i, said $1 million in federal money is being used to stockpile equipment and hospital supplies on O'ahu and the Neighbor Islands this year and next to prepare for an infectious disease outbreak.

By mid-July, the state hospitals will have adequate supplies to manage a pandemic, he said.

That was possible because the effort to prepare for a pandemic dovetails with federal efforts to prepare Hawai'i hospitals for bioterrorism, and the federal government has been pumping $2.5 million a year for the past three years into training, communications equipment and supplies and exercises, Clairmont said.

Over the past several years the hospitals developed a communications network so they can talk to each other, created teams to deploy crews from around the state to the site of emergencies, and ran training programs to prepare for emergencies.

By the end of 2006, five mobile acute-care modules will be deployed around the state that can set up shop in public buildings such as shopping malls or an airport terminal, he said.

CAREGIVERS GET SICK

A potential shortage of health-care professionals to care for patients is another cause for concern, with the response plan estimating up to 25 percent of healthcare workers would be ill in a pandemic.

In January, the association will launch Na Lima Kako'o to sign up retired or inactive healthcare workers who would be willing to help during an emergency. The plan is to create medical "reserve corps" on O'ahu, Maui, the Big Island and Kaua'i, and train the volunteers in advance on how to help in a disaster.

After the association has recruited people trained in medical fields, the program will recruit volunteers without medical training to fill roles in an emergency such as a pandemic, he said.

LOGISTICS CHALLENGE

One issue that troubles Clairmont is how the community would cope with a pandemic, which would drag on longer than abrupt disasters such as hurricanes. If people are required to stay home to avoid spreading infection, that raises concerns about how businesses function, and how people get the food and other goods they need to survive.

Ed Teixeira, vice director of state Civil Defense, said those are among the issues his agency will try to address in an operations supplement civil defense will draft in 2006.

A major issue is how the state would cope with interruptions in shipping, for example. "We're going to have major, major challenges in logistics," he said.

Dr. Paul Effler, state epidemiologist with the Health Department, said plans are under way to convene a governor's advisory panel on a pandemic this month or next to bring together state and private officials involved in industries such as tourism, transportation and defense.

Among other issues, the panel would look at how vital industries can continue to function in a sustained disaster that could last for weeks or months, he said.

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<B><center>Sunday, January 1, 2006. 10:28pm (AEDT)
<A href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200601/s1540380.htm">www.abc.net.au</a>

<font size=+1 color=brown>Turkish children tested for bird flu</font></center>
Reports from Turkey say four children from the same family have been rushed to hospital in the east of the country, showing symptoms of bird flu.</b>

If confirmed they would be the first human carriers of the virus in Turkey.

Doctors in the city of Van where the children were hospitalised say animals in the area had been slaughtered two weeks ago after showing signs of the potentially deadly disease.

They say the children had a fever and were coughing and bleeding from the mouth.

Tests are now being carried out in the capital, Ankara, to determine the origin of the infection.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Outbreak plan to isolate avian flu </font>

January 01 2006
<A href="http://www.24-7pressrelease.com/view_press_release.php?rID=10105">Press Release.com</a></center>
Richard Nolan, senior adviser to the director of the Strategic National Stockpile at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta commented that "theoretically, it ought to work".

/24-7PressRelease/ - NEW YORK, NY, January 01, 2006 - Richard Nolan, senior adviser to the director of the Strategic National Stockpile at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta commented that "theoretically, it ought to work". Currently, he is working on the plan, which would establish a distribution center for influenza prevention supplies.</b>

Experts realize that Asian region is the most appropriate location for mutation to take place that is why, Nolan said that Thailand would be most likely place as distribution center where supplies such as Tamiflu - the influenza medication thought most likely to be effective against avian flu - could be quickly shipped around the region".

For avian flu to become a pandemic threat, it would have to mutate into a virus that can be transmitted from person to person. So far, humans can contract the disease only from birds.

Health Specialists are already working in Asian countries to analyzing the matters of avian flu, influenza. Nolan said those teams require quick access to supplies, mostly if they determine an avian flu that spreads among people.

"People get really up close and personal with their chickens," Nolan said.

If avian flu were determined, it could take as long as nine months to develop and manufacture a vaccine. It would be more effective to corral the virus and prevent it from spreading.

He questioned and answered as he thinks, he asked "Can you isolate it enough, given the fact that it's likely to occur in a rural village?" "Yes" as he thinks.

Nolan said that the problem right now is every country in the world worried about pandemic flu is starting to ask the single manufacturer of Tamiflu for massive quantities of it but it would require an almost immediate response, including distribution of Tamiflu in the infected population.

The "recipe" for Tamiflu is patented, and Roche, the pharmaceutical company with the rights to produce it, cannot keep up with demand.

The CDC hopes to stockpile Tamiflu regimens for the Asian distribution center, which would be operated by the World Health Organization, Nolan said.

"It's likely to not be an ideal amount," he said. "It's going to be whatever we can get our hands on."

"We are discouraging people from stockpiling," said Dr. Doug Moore, chief of public health for the health department. "We want to make sure we have it for people who do need it."

Tamiflu is available by prescription from medical providers for people are who sick with influenza. It should not be put away on a shelf in case of a future illness, Moore said.

The health department has asked area providers not to dispense the drug preventively, and especially not for the remote possibility of avian flu.

"We don't know if it's going to be effective" against avian flu or even if avian flu will become a human threat, Moore said.

Meanwhile, Moore said, it is up to the federal government to stockpile Tamiflu and other supplies for the possibility of an outbreak on American soil.

"It's at the nation level. It's not done at the local level," he said.

The CDC would probably be charged with distributing supplies around the country during an outbreak, and local agencies, such as the health department, would have little control.

Moore said supplies would be targeted to areas with confirmed disease cases. If avian flu popped up in many places at once, it would be up to federal officials to prioritize dispensation.

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Preparing for the worst of bird flu</font>

Web Posted: 01/01/2006 12:00 AM CST
<A href="http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/metro/stories/MYSA010105.01B.bird_flu.370f7cf.html">MySA.com</a>
Don Finley
Express-News Medical Editor </center>

An orderly row of gently fluttering pelicans stretches 100 yards or so across Mitchell Lake, signaling the annual arrival of tens of thousands of migrating shorebirds and waterfowl to this bird paradise.

It is where the city for decades flushed its raw sewage, creating fertile mud flats for hungry bugs that then attract hungry birds — the cycle of life, in short.

It is where the city for decades flushed its raw sewage, creating fertile mud flats for hungry bugs that then attract hungry birds — the cycle of life, in short.

But this year, these amazing bird journeys — some that stretch from the frigid Arctic to the southern tip of South America — are colored by a deadly outbreak of avian influenza a half a world away. </b>

Experts say wild birds often carry strains of bird flu, usually harmless or mild. But one particularly lethal strain, A-H5N1, is killing flocks of domestic chickens, ducks and turkeys throughout Asia and parts of Eastern Europe. At least 139 people have been infected, and 71 of them have died, most of those living and working closely with the infected birds.

"Many of the shorebirds are some of the ones that migrate the greatest distances, all the way from Alaska, the Arctic, coming all the way to the southern part of South America and down to the Antarctic," said Iliana Peña with the Mitchell Lake Audubon Center. "And that is quite a journey."

No H5N1 virus has been found in North American wild birds or any other creature here.

And the risk of the virus jumping the Pacific Ocean is theoretical at best.

Migration routes do bring Asian birds in contact with American birds in the Arctic. But scientists in Alaska have been testing those birds for some time now, without finding H5N1.

"Migratory waterfowl certainly do mix on the nesting grounds in the Arctic," Dr. Max Coats, a veterinarian with the Texas Animal Health Commission, said at a pandemic flu conference in Austin recently. "The preponderate movement of this virus (from Asia to Europe) appears to be going the wrong direction to come to us — although it's not impossible. But for this season, I would suggest we are without risk at this time."

Of more concern is whether the H5N1 virus could mutate or combine its genes with human flu to become more infectious between people. Because humans have no lingering natural defenses to the unfamiliar virus, it could sweep across the planet in a pandemic.

"We've all read the same books, we've seen what it's done in history. It's a possibility," said Linda Canas, laboratory director of the Defense Department's Global Influenza Surveillance Program at Brooks City-Base. "But it's just as possible this could mutate and end up being a mild disease. We just don't really know. So we prepare for the worst."

The Spanish flu


An Associated Press story dated Sept. 11, 1918, and published in the next day's San Antonio Express featured this understated headline: "Dreaded Spanish influenza has reached America; Disease is short-lived but uncomfortable while it lasts."
And with that began the most deadly flu pandemic of the 20th century, one that in only a few months would kill between 20 million and 50 million people worldwide, more than half a million in the United States.

The disease swept through military bases, including Fort Sam Houston in San Antonio and Camp Travis in Austin — packed with soldiers preparing to sail overseas to fight the first world war.

Unlike other flu outbreaks, which strike the very old and very young the hardest, the Spanish flu seemed to target working-age adults.

Eventually, in San Antonio, schools, theaters and churches closed their doors. The fact that many local doctors had been pressed into war service didn't help.

"Chopin's Funeral March was in the air every day," Dr. Pat Nixon wrote in his 1936 book, "A Century of Medicine in San Antonio." "The doctors were unable to handle the situation except by working 18 or 20 hours a day. These long, arduous hours lowered their resistance, and many of them developed the disease in severe form."

And when it finally was over a few months later, a survey found that San Antonio had suffered the highest rate of infection of any major U.S. city, with some 50,000 cases. The death rate here, however, was much lower than most. Nearly 2,000 San Antonians died from Spanish flu.

In 2005, using the modern tools of molecular biology, scientists announced that they had unraveled the genetic structure of that 1918 virus. They found it wasn't a strain of human flu virus that mutated or even a combination of viruses mixing their genes to form a new strain.

All eight genes in the virus appeared to be avian influenza genes, suggesting a bird flu virus had jumped to humans and then adapted to spread easily from person to person.

Genetic shift


The two subsequent flu pandemics, in 1957 and 1968, added new avian flu genes to existing flu strains. But unlike the 1918 strain, scientists think those viruses were formed when two viruses — a bird flu and human flu — infected one creature, possibly a pig, at the same time.
Flu viruses are slippery, constantly changing organisms. Protecting people against them involves reformulating a vaccine each year, with varying levels of success.

"And that means that even though you're infected by flu last year, or had the vaccine last year, you may not be protected against this year's virus," said Dr. W. Paul Glezen with the Influenza Research Center at Baylor College of Medicine.

Sometimes the vaccine works poorly, as it did in the 2002-2003 flu season, when health officials were unable to match one of the three flu strains in the vaccine to the new virus that emerged that year, A-Fujian.

When a completely foreign virus emerges — such as the new bird flu — the vaccine has to be much more potent because the body can't even muster a faint memory of a previous infection to help fight it.

If a pandemic flu emerges, some researchers say, they will need to put only one strain in the vaccine rather than three, shortening what now is a six- to eight-month process somewhat.

But Dr. Pascale Wortley, a medical officer with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Immunization Program, noted at the Austin conference: "If this pandemic were to occur in the next couple of years, we're definitely not there."

An H5N1 vaccine is undergoing human testing. The government also is stockpiling the antiviral drug Tamiflu, which can reduce the severity of avian flu, and it has about 4 million doses. The goal is to stockpile enough for a quarter of the U.S. population.

Other strategies for combating a flu pandemic have problems, officials admit. The federal pandemic flu plan released recently includes strategies for limiting travel and quarantining the sick.

But unlike the SARS epidemic, which was effectively limited with such methods, along with tracking down those who might have been exposed to people diagnosed with the illness, flu is a lot harder to contain.

For one thing, Wortley pointed out, people with flu can infect others before they even develop symptoms.

Right now, U.S. officials are prepared to concentrate their efforts in Asia, should the virus mutate soon into a more dangerous strain there.

"I don't think anybody realistically thinks that a pandemic can be averted," Wortley said. "But the idea is that if you can jump on things early enough you can slow things down and buy some time to get closer to" a vaccine.

Close to home


In early February 2004, the operator of a small commercial poultry farm in Gonzales, about 70 miles east of San Antonio, became concerned when he found several of his chickens dead.
The farmer, Butch Jackson, gathered an armful of the dead birds and took them to the Texas Veterinary Medical Diagnostic Laboratory a few miles away.

On Feb. 17, the lab notified state animal health officials that the birds were infected with avian influenza.

Initial tests indicated the strain was mild. Test birds infected with the virus didn't sicken and die as they normally would with a highly pathogenic strain. But at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Veterinary Services Laboratory in Ames, Iowa, the virus was found to be identical to a highly pathogenic strain seen overseas, H5N2.

"We had not had highly pathogenic avian influenza in the U.S. for over 20 years," said Coats, of the Texas Animal Health Commission.

The day after the USDA released its findings, technicians in hazmat suits destroyed all 6,608 of Jackson's birds. After determining they wouldn't put the water table at risk, the carcasses were buried in a field on the property.

Thousands of additional birds were destroyed at an outdoor poultry market in Houston, where Jackson had bought a few birds he suspected might have caused the infection.

Under guidelines long in place, state and federal officials quarantined all commercial and noncommercial poultry within a five-mile radius of Jackson's farm. A surveillance zone was established over an additional five-mile radius.

"Then we had another 50-kilometer buffer zone imposed on us by our Japanese trading partners," Coats said.

The entire episode required testing countless birds in all three zones for weeks to establish that the virus had not spread. Several nations banned imports of U.S. poultry products. Texas alone exports $123 million worth of poultry products a year.

The problem at hand


In San Antonio and many other parts of the world, flu — traditional, seasonal flu — is starting to gather steam. The predominant strain is an H3N2 virus called A-California. Health officials say it seems well matched to the vaccine this year.
In other years, A-H1N1 flu viruses, and B viruses, can circulate. Each year, the vaccine contains protection against all three types.

Glezen, of the Influenza Research Center, noted that H3N2 viruses were the primary causes of flu from 1997 to 2000. Those strains are believed to have killed more than 180,000 people in the U.S. in those years.

"We're actually seeing mortality in pandemic proportions right now in the United States with severe H3N2 epidemics," Glezen said.

The reasons for such poor results against existing flu strains are many, he said. One is the short window between the availability of the vaccine and when the flu actually hits. In three of the past five years in Texas, he notes, the flu has begun in October, before many people have had a chance to get vaccinated.

Another reason, he said, is that health officials target the elderly and the very young for vaccination because they are at highest risk for complications. But those are also the people whose immune systems are least likely to benefit from vaccine.

Fixing the problem may require better vaccine technology and perhaps shifting the vaccination priority to older children and working adults, who often spread the illness to those at high risk and can be reached the easiest to inoculate them.

The H3N2 viruses haven't been around forever. H3N2 caused the last worldwide pandemic in 1968. It was created when two avian flu genes combined with an existing human virus.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Bird Flu Virus May Be More Active in Eastern Europe Than Asia </font>
January 01 2006
<A href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aCJXeYrGJPLk&refer=asia">Bloomberg.com</a></center>
Jan. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Outbreaks of bird flu in East European poultry flocks the past week indicate the lethal disease may be more active in that region than in Asia. </b>

Russia reported 62 outbreaks of avian influenza in birds as of Dec. 30, 11 more than a week earlier, the World Organization for Animal Health said on its Web site. Romania counted 36 outbreaks, or 10 more than on Dec. 23, the Paris-based organization said. In the same period, no new animal outbreaks were reported in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia or China.

Authorities are concerned new outbreaks among birds create more opportunity for human infection and increase the risk of the virus changing into a form that is more contagious to people. Human cases from the lethal H5N1 avian flu strain more than doubled in 2005 as the animal illness spread further in Asia and to Eastern Europe, probably carried by infected migratory birds.

``Currently bird migration is on peak'' in parts of Eastern Europe, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on Romania's outbreaks released on Dec. 27. ``The Romanian veterinary authority anticipates additional outbreaks'' along flyways used by migratory birds, such as wild ducks.

The H5N1 virus has infected at least 142 people in Asia since 2003, including 98 in 2005, according to a tally kept by the World Health Organization last updated on Dec. 30. At least 74 people have died from the disease, including 42 last year.

Avian flu is denting demand for poultry meat in some countries where the disease has broken out. In Romania, which first reported the virus in October, poultry meat sales are 40 percent lower than they were in September, the USDA report said.

The following table shows the number of outbreaks of the H5 subtype of avian influenza as of Dec. 30, according to the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health



===========================================================
COUNTRY OUTBREAKS
Vietnam 2,141
Thailand 1,164
Indonesia 216
China 78
Russia 62
Romania 36
Ukraine 22
South Korea 19
Cambodia 15
Japan 11
Malaysia 10
Hong Kong 4
Mongolia 2
Croatia 2
Turkey 2
Laos 1
Kazakhstan 1
===========================================================

To contact the reporter on this story:
Jason Gale in Singapore at j.gale@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 31, 2005 22:38 EST

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<B><center> Sunday 1 January 2006
<A href="http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=131403&Sn=BNEW&IssueID=28287">Gulf Daily News</a>

<font size=+1 color=red>Bahrain 'taking adequate measures to fight bird flu' </font>
By MOHAMMED AL A' ALI

BAHRAIN is taking every precaution to protect people against bird flu, Health Minister Dr Nada Haffadh told MPs yesterday.</b>

Safety measures are in place to keep the disease out of the country and to protect Haj pilgrims from this and other potential illnesses, she said.

The Bahrain Haj Mission health team will be there to help safeguard pilgrims, she told parliament. But she cautioned that while Bahrain was well protected, the disease could mutate, which is a cause for global worry.

"It is still not known if the disease can be transferred from human to human and everything is possible," said Dr Haffadh.

She said Bahrain had imported the medical means to combat the disease in its current form.

Dr Hfaadh was responding to a question by Al Menbar Bloc president Dr Salah Abdulrahman on the ministry's preparations to combat this disease.

He said that the ministry had acquired 40,000 vaccinations, which could be only used by 40,000 people.

"What about the rest? What would happen if this disease comes? What will happen to us?" Dr Abdulrahman asked.

"The ministry has known about the disease in 2003, before it plagued the globe and yet it didn't do anything."

Dr Haffadh said that the ministry was going with the World Health Organisation requirements and was doing everything according to precautions taken worldwide and even better.

"Oman has two million people and they just acquired 10,000 shots, while we acquired 40,000 and this shows that we are very concerned about the welfare of the people," she said.

"Bahrain is on top of this and is doing its best to ensure this disease doesn't plague the nation."

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These are the sum of my noteworthy finds on H5N1 (avian flu) this morning. I want to take this time - and space to say Happy News Years to everyone who reads these news threads. And to make a few observations:

Where to begin?

2005 was an eventful year - on two fronts. The H5N1 avian flu; and just recently, the upsurge in hostilities in the Middle East and Asia.

Mother Nature has added to the world's events, with earth quakes, Hurricanes, droughts, floods. All the usual events, which one might expect from Mother Nature. And saving for the increase in the numbers of Hurricanes this past year. Mother Nautre has been herself - completely unpredictable.

Man's actions though; that is a different matter.

In this new year we face the growing likehood of a global conflict looming on the horizon; in just this past week, the last week of 2005. We have heard:

That:

Stratergic Air Command has been reactivated.

Russia has moved her Topol-M ICBMs to an Operational mode.

Iran had bought a billion dollar ant-air craft missle system.

Pakistan had taken Iran's side in any possible conflic with the US.

Israel has been struck numerous times with longer range missles from Lebanon.

Israel is again striking both Gaza - and Lebanon with air attacks.

Israel has taken delivery of 2 "second-strike" nuclear capable submarines from Germany.

Israel now has pocession of long-range fighter/bombers.

There is open speculation in the major news medias as to when the US will attack Iran.

I could go on for a bit more concerning the events, events which link with each other.

And yes, there are questions in my thoughts, questions about me personally.

Is it time for a New Year's resolution for myself? And am I spending way too much time on the internet? Is me posting the news actually helping anyone; as I had hoped I would be, when I first started posting the news - five years ago?

I know, I am almost resigned to the fact that TB2000's approuch to posting the news - which is IMHO; the equalivent of a "Saturday Night in Dodge City" (circa 1880).

I have tried to suggest that there should be daily threads for topics and that the news should be placed on those threads.

But to no avail!

Even those whom one would think, at first contemplation, would naturally be posting in that manner. Even they post single news article threads - and filling up the board; like some "wild West shot-out." The news is "shot gun-like" scattered everywhere.

But again - I want to say - Happy News Years everyone

Perhaps "I shall finish the game."

But then again; "The Game may Finish Me".

The only "certain" thing we can be certain of in the new year - is this; 2006 will have it's shocks, surprises and catastrophes as 2005 did.....

happy new year's, to you too, doc
thanks for all the work you do to bring us the news. i'm too busy on the homestead to read through papers every day, and we trashed the tv three years ago. i must say that i appreciate your updates.
breezyhill

BREWER

I'm with Breezy. Thank you Dutch for all the time and effort you put into gathering all these articles on H5N1. I must say they are my main source of information and I share them with friends and family. Everyone who reads these articles is always amazed that they have not heard anything like what I bring them courtesy of you and your efforts. Happy New Year my friend.Please keep up the great work
BUMP

Up to date Doom and Gloom.....I love it. Keep up the good work.

Dutchman, I am a member of the "silent majority" on this board who actively read your work but don't post, but do not think for a minute that your efforts are futile. You are a strong, respected voice here at TB2K and I pray your warnings are heeded.

May you have a happy and flu-free 2006.

DoomBuggy said:

Dutchman, I am a member of the "silent majority" on this board who actively read your work but don't post, but do not think for a minute that your efforts are futile. You are a strong, respected voice here at TB2K and I pray your warnings are heeded.

May you have a happy and flu-free 2006.

Click to expand...

Yes - I completely agree! Dutchman, I love being able to click on your posts, knowing that I will get a comprehensive picture of what is going on with a particular topic. You are very much appreciated!

Writermom

Is me posting the news actually helping anyone; as I had hoped I would be, when I first started posting the news - five years ago?

Click to expand...

YOU BET IT IS!!! AND
THANK YOU for doing it!!

I get more here than hours of surfing can ever give me......and yes, I am the newsbearer for many in my own community, THANKS to your efforts!! People are always amazed at what I am able to tell them to.....and are also appreciative, so, you see, your "FAME" and IMPACT go FAR beyond this board.....all the way to a very very small town of about 500 in rural Missouri.
I don't have TV either, so you are a life line for me!!

breezyhill said:

happy new year's, to you too, doc
thanks for all the work you do to bring us the news. i'm too busy on the homestead to read through papers every day, and we trashed the tv three years ago. i must say that i appreciate your updates.
breezyhill

Click to expand...

"doc" ???

dear dutch,
my sincerest apologies. i was checking in on this thread for updates and i see where i called you by the wrong name. please excuse me. i seem to be suffering lately from the dreaded CRS.

thanks, dutch, again, for all the information you bring to us here at tbtk.

breezyhill