01/17 | Viral caldron brewing... H3 & H5N1 Potential Mix?

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
New pandemic fear as cameraman falls ill in bird flu village
[January 16, 2006]

(The Mail on Sunday Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)FEARS that the bird flu virus which has killed three children in Turkey could mutate into a pandemic strain have been heightened by the discovery of a human flu bug in the same area.

The alarm was raised last night after a man who had just returned home to Belgium from the location of the Turkish outbreak ended up in hospital with flu-like symptoms.

He has tested negative for H5N1, the avian virus that has now killed 78 people around the world. But he was diagnosed with an H3 virus, a human flu strain.

The fact that human flu now appears to be circulating in the Van province of Turkey, in close proximity to the H5N1 strain, raises concerns that it could provide the perfect melting pot for a pandemic strain.

Different viruses are known to have the ability to swap or ' reassort' genetic material in a process known as 'antigenic shift'. This creates a new virus to which people have no immunity, resulting in a lethal pandemic.

The key condition is that the new strain is easily transmissible between humans. To fulfil this, the new virus would normally need material from a human virus such as H3.

The patient in Belgium is believed to be a cameraman who travelled to eastern Turkey to film on the bird flu crisis. He returned home on Thursday but checked himself into hospital in Brussels the following day.

The presence of human flu in Van is borne out by reports of dozens of local people attending hospitals with flu-like symptoms.

But only 18 have been confirmed as having the H5N1 virus.

Last night leading virologist Professor John Oxford, based at Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry in London, said: 'There is a concern. If you are infected with H3 and then H5 as well, the two could swap a few genes and you could have some unknown virus emerging. It could have the internal genes of the H3 and the H5 and the external proteins of N1, and then you have a pandemic virus.' There are already worrying signs that H5N1 is mutating. Last week scientists at the Medical Research Council in London analysed samples from two fatal cases in Turkey and found that the virus had changed so that it could be more easily passed from birds to people.

But the World Health Organisation has said that so far there is no sign that H5N1 has changed so that it can become easily transmissible between humans.

Experts fear that a mutation in the virus could lead to a repeat of the Spanish flu in 1918-19, which killed up to 50 million people around the world.

Liam Donaldson, the UK's Chief Medical Officer, has estimated that one in four Britons could be infected in a pandemic, with 50,000 deaths. But if the mortality rate was similar to that experienced during the Spanish flu, closer to one million would die.

Last night a Department of Health spokeswoman said: 'We are monitoring the situation in Belgium.'

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/jan/1289632.htm

:vik:
 
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Thank you PKVing,

I had only this one article in my compilation for the 17th's thread. So instead of transfering it to the main board, I lifted it - so as not to predate your thread.
And I'll re-post it here instead..

by gummy! It's nice to see your handle as the thread starter....




<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Cluster to Cluster Transmission of H5N1 in Sagdic Dogubeyazit?</font>

<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01160601/H5N1_Turkey_C2C.html">Recombinomics Commentary</a>
January 15, 2006</center>
Ozcan family's 15 yr old daughter Hatice Ozcan, who lives in the Sagdic village, won the battle against BF. After coming home from the hospital, Hatice was distraught with the news of her cousins death. Fatma Ozcan was put to rest yesterday afternoon in Sagdic village.</b>

The above comments suggest that Hatice Ozcan had bird flu symptoms when she was hospitalized in Van. The test result showing no H5N1 was probably false since the two siblings hospitalized with her on January 4 were both placed in the ICU and both tested positive for H5N1. False negatives at Van were common. All four fatal cases initially tested negative and eventually tested positive for H5N1. Like Hatice, the youngest sibling of the Kocyicit cluster tested negative, even though he had symptoms and all three of his older siblings died and eventually tested positive.

These data suggest that the other 7 members of the Ozcan family that were hospitalized 1 to 2 days after Hatice also had symptoms and also were infected with H5N1, even though they tested negative. Thus, the three families, Kocyicit and the two Ozcan families, had 16 family members hospitalized and 7 tested positive for H5N1, including the four fatal cases.

The above comments also suggest all three families lived in the Sagdic village section of Dogubeyazit, since Fatma was buried there and at least one of the Ozcan families lived near the Kocyicit family.

Although all three families had contact with dead or dying chickens, the proximity and relationship between the three families raises the possibility of cluster to cluster transmission of H5N1 in the Sagdic village section of Dogubeyazit..
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Nabarro Begs Richest Nations as Millions Face Bird Flu Death</font>

Jason Gale in Singapore at j.gale@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 16
<A href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&&sid=audmgEasePRg&&refer=japan">www.bloomberg.com</a></center>
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- David Nabarro led medical-relief efforts in Iraq and orchestrated aid to tsunami victims. As the United Nations' bird-flu coordinator, he faces his toughest job yet: galvanizing world leaders meeting in China this week to prevent a potential killer pandemic. </b>

The International Pledging Conference on Avian and Human Influenza, which starts in Beijing today, aims to garner support for programs to control the spread of the lethal H5N1 avian-flu virus and prepare for a pandemic it may spawn. Nabarro, an Oxford- educated physician, faces his first test when wealthy nations are asked to collectively commit as much as $1.5 billion.

``This is by far and away the toughest job I have ever had; partly because the stakes are very high, partly because the challenges I face are very great in what I have to do and also because the expectations on me are substantial,'' the 56-year-old said in a phone interview from New York on Jan. 11.

In the 84 days since UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan appointed Nabarro senior coordinator for avian and human influenza, the H5N1 virus has spread west to Eastern Europe from Southeast Asia. It's infected at least 31 more people, killing 18, and moved the globe closer to what the World Health Organization describes as humanity's most serious health challenge.

At least 148 human cases of H5N1 have been confirmed in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, China, Cambodia and Turkey, the World Health Organization said on Jan. 14. Of those, 79 have died. Contact with diseased birds is the main source of human infection, according to the United Nations health agency.

No Better Advocate

``I don't think I could have found a better adviser or a better advocate to work with me on this issue,'' Annan said of Nabarro in an interview in New York on Jan. 12. ``He knows the agencies involved and the players who are engaged in this struggle.''

Many of these people -- including Bernard Vallat, director general of the World Organization for Animal Health, European Union Health Commissioner Markos Kyprianou and China's Premier Wen Jiabao -- will be in Beijing for the two-day conference, co- sponsored by the Chinese government, the European Commission and the World Bank. Attendees include ministers and officials from international health, aid and veterinary organizations.

For the first time, rich countries will be asked to show their commitment to the influenza fight through giving aid. Nabarro said his challenge is to get well-off nations to pledge more money and deliver on the promises. He said he also has to hammer out an agreement this week on how the money is allocated, and establish a framework for international coordination.

Huge Challenge

``His function of coordinating this will be a huge challenge,'' said Anne Bauer, director of the division of emergency operations and rehabilitation with the UN's Food & Agriculture Organization in Rome. ``To fill all gaps and avoid duplication is an enormous task if at the same time one wants to mobilize all the resources of all kinds of institutions.''

Nabarro has spent the past three months crisscrossing the globe in a schedule that's keeping him away from his family in Geneva and the East Village apartment in lower Manhattan he moved into in October.

``I haven't really moved in a substantive way,'' he said. Nabarro's wife, health economist Gillian Holmes, and their children have no immediate plan to move to New York and Nabarro isn't sure how long he may stay.

``It depends on how long this job goes on for and how things evolve,'' he said. ``The one thing they have said to me is that we would all like to be together, but it's not much fun being together if I'm always on the move.''

SARS

Nabarro's job is to prepare six UN agencies and 191 member states for an international response to a flu pandemic, which World Bank officials estimated in November may cost $800 billion to control, based on the experience of the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, in East Asia in 2003.

``SARS killed less than a thousand people, whereas a pandemic, when it comes, will kill millions,'' Nabarro said in an interview in Bangkok last month. ``SARS caused billions of dollars worth of economic damage to this region. We need to be sure that when the pandemic happens, we are better prepared for the economic, social and security consequences of the influenza pandemic than we were for the consequences of SARS.''

Nabarro's appointment marks the high point of a 32-year career propelled by academic and professional qualifications that include degrees from Oxford University in animal physiology and medicine, a master's degree in public health and fellowship of the Royal College of Physicians of London.

Iraq War

Four years after completing medical training at London's University College Hospital in 1973, he worked as a district medical officer with the Save the Children Alliance in remote east Nepal, where all travel was on foot and communication was in Nepali, a language he learned to speak.

In Geneva, Nabarro was director of the Health Action in Crisis program, responsible for mobilizing medical responses to the Iraq war, Niger famine and the Asian tsunami. Before that, he spearheaded the WHO's campaign against malaria in Africa.

These roles have primed him for his current job and given him an appreciation for the enormity of his responsibilities, Nabarro said.

``I have to be pretty certain that every hour of every day is being used in a way that will lead to a reduction in the potential impact of a pandemic,'' he said.
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
The pup is exchanging it's genetic material, promises to be a BAD start to spring.:rolleyes: Please tell me I'm wrong, but don't think I am guys...
 
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<B><center>HealthWrap:
<font size=+1 color=blue>More bad flu news</font>

Jan 16 2006
By DAN OLMSTED
<A href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/index.php?feed=Science&&article=UPI-1-20060116-14423700-bc-healthwrap.xml">www.sciencedaily.com</a></center>
Avian flu has claimed a fourth human victim in Turkey, while in the United States the regular old flu has proven resistant to two drugs.</b>

A 12-year-old girl named Fatma Ozcan who died Sunday tested positive for bird flu, Turkish authorities said. She originally tested negative, but after the illness was found in her brother a new test confirmed the presence of the lethal H5N1 strain.

<u>Turkey has become the epicenter of the bird flu's breakout from Southeast Asia</u>, and Turkish officials along with World Health Organization experts have been racing to contain it. There is still no evidence of human-to-human spread, which could set off a worldwide pandemic killing millions.

The more prosaic strain of human influenza circulating in the United States this year has now defeated two common anti-virals, amantadine and rimantadine, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced. As a result, doctors shouldn't prescribe them against the influenza A (H3N2) strain circulating this year.

"This is certainly unexpected news as we now have to remove a few tools from our tool box that we use to combat influenza," said CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding. "Thankfully we still have antivirals available that work, but this new development serves as a reminder of the importance of getting people vaccinated to prevent them from getting influenza in the first place."

The CDC's alternate recommendations for the rest of this year's flu season are Tamiflu and Relenza. Eighteen states are reporting widespread or regional outbreaks, the CDC said.

In Britain, environmental officials Monday confirmed a duck shot in Scotland did not have the lethal H5N1 strain, according to The Scotsman. The duck was infected with the H6N2 strain of bird flu, which does not infect humans, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said.
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
Dutch, we're ramping up...better hunker down very shortly...folks best prep your backends off now. The siren has been sounding for a while, but best get moving NOW.:rolleyes:
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>EU urges Asian countries to combat bird flu </font>

01/17/2006 -- 11:18(GMT+7)
<A href="http://www.vnanet.vn/NewsA.asp?LANGUAGE_ID=2&CATEGORY_ID=34&NEWS_ID=182996">www.vnanet.vn</a></center>
Brussels (VNA) - The European Union has pressed China and other Asian countries to better coordinate in fighting bird flu, EU Health Commissioner Markos Kyprianou said on Jan. 16 as he left for Beijing for a conference on the pandemic.</b>

"Better co-ordination at the global level is necessary to tackle the spread of avian flu and any possible outbreak of a human influenza pandemic," Kyprianou said.

The European Union is the co-organiser of an international conference on bird flu scheduled in Beijing on Jan. 17-18.

Meanwhile, Vice President of the World Bank Jim Adams said that countries around the world are expected to pledge at least 1 billion USD to help their poorer counterparts tackle bird flu and prepare for a potential human pandemic.

"We're anticipating a very generous EU response, we have a very strong commitment from the US and we expect Japan to pledge a strong commitment,'' he said.

His remark came on the eve of a two-day international conference in Beijing, co-organised by the EU, which is focused on raising money to fight the disease.

The World Bank has said that as many as 1.5 billion USD is needed over the next three years to fight bird flu and prepare for a pandemic.-Enditem
 
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<B><center>January 17 2006

<font size=+1 color=red>Bird flu cluster raises worries as number of fatalities climbs </font>

Abdul Khalik,
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
<A href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailcity.asp?fileid=20060117.G04&irec=3">www.thejakartapost.com</a></center>
Confirmation has come from a laboratory in Hong Kong that a 29-year-old woman who died Wednesday at Sulianti Saroso Hospital in North Jakarta had bird flu.

The laboratory, accredited by the World Health Organization, has yet to confirm whether a 13-year-old girl who died last Saturday in Indramayu, West Java, had bird flu. Two of her family members also are thought to be infected. </b>

This unusual cluster of cases has raised some concern the deadly HN51 bird flu virus has developed the ability to pass from human to human.

Sulianti Saroso Hospital spokesman and head of avian influenza surveillance Ilham Patu said the death of the 29-year-old resident of Cipayung in East Jakarta raised the number of fatalities from bird flu in the country to 13.

"The laboratory in Hong Kong confirmed last Friday she was infected with bird flu," he told The Jakarta Post on Monday.

Twenty human cases of bird flu have been confirmed here since July.

The 29-year-old woman, who was transferred to the hospital last Monday from Harapan Bunda Hospital in East Jakarta, had acute pneumonia and a high fever.

It is believed the virus was passed to her from neighborhood chickens, as a number of birds in the area died suddenly shortly before she became sick.

Tests are underway at the Hong Kong lab to determine the status of a 39-year-old man who died here last week.

Ilham said the 13-year-old girl who died Saturday in Indramayu, West Java, and her younger brother and older sister had all tested positive for bird flu in Health Ministry tests.

"We are still examining the cases. We have sent their blood samples to Hong Kong for confirmation," he said.

The 13-year-old was admitted to Indramayu Hospital last Thursday. The decision to transfer her to Sulianto Saroso came too late and she died en route to Jakarta.

Tests subsequently conducted around her neighborhood found several chickens and fowls infected with avian influenza.

Ilham said the condition of the girl's brother and sister, who are being treated at Hasan Sadikin Hospital in Bandung, had not improved.

Experts have warned that if the virus becomes more easily transmitted between birds and humans, or between humans, millions could die in a global pandemic.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Bird flu in Turkey could be adapting to humans</font>

17:18 16 January 2006
<A href="http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8590">NewScientist.com news service</a>
Debora MacKenzie </center>
Bird Flu special report, New Scientist
The first sequences of H5N1 bird flu from Turkey have mutations that scientists fear might help the virus adapt to humans. But New Scientist can reveal that these fears might be misplaced: as cases multiply in Turkey, the virus is showing none of the mutations’ expected effects.</b>

Mehmet Ali Kocyigit, 14, and his sister Fatma, 15, died of bird flu in January after handling sick chickens. Sequencing of viral genes now reveals their virus is most closely related to the distinctive H5N1 found in wild birds at Qinghai Lake in China in May 2005, according to scientists at the National Institute for Medical Research in London, UK.

This makes it almost certain that the virus reached Turkey via wild birds, underscoring the risk to other countries on the migratory flyway.

Some of the virus from Mehmet had a mutation in a surface protein called haemagglutinin. Here, an amino acid – the building blocks of proteins - called serine, was replaced another called asparagine at a crucial position.

This mutation, research has shown, allows the H5N1 virus to bind a bit more strongly to a complex sugar found on cells in the human respiratory tract, which is different from the sugar the virus normally binds to in birds, says Jeff Taubenberger of the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Rockville, Maryland, US. He found that a much stronger increase in binding helped the 1918 human pandemic flu virus evolve from a bird flu strain.

Respiratory tract
But how much the mutation really helps the virus “is currently unknown”, Taubenberger told New Scientist.

Moreover, says Alan Hay at NIMR, only some of the boy’s viruses had the mutation. Such mixtures can arise during an infection, as the virus mutates and strains that bind human receptors better emerge, says Mike Perdue at the World Health Organization. But he says “we’ll only know it means something if we see it in a cluster of human cases”, where it has been selected for because it eases spread among humans.

But this has not happened so far – Fatma’s virus did not carry the mutation, says Hay, meaning she did not get it from her brother. And all human cases in Turkey can be traced to sick birds, says the WHO.

The mutation has been seen twice before in H5N1, in a family cluster in Hong Kong in 2003, and in a fatal case in Vietnam in 2005. Then, too, it did not get passed on further.

The Turkish virus also has a mutation in another gene called PB2, which has also cropped up at Qinghai, and in human and cat H5N1 cases in Thailand and Vietnam. It allows the virus to grow at the temperature of a mammal’s respiratory tract, which is cooler than a bird’s. It also increases the deadliness of H5N1 in mice.

But, notes Hay, most recent H5N1 cases in Turkey have been notable for their mildness.

(Personal note; somehow - I just do not feel very comforted with a 25% to 40% fatalities; that isn't mild enough for me)
 
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<B><center>[January 16, 2006]
<A href="http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/-new-bird-flu-cases-indicate-disease-spreading-/2006/jan/1287894.htm">www.tmcnet.com</a>

<font size=+1 color=green>New bird flu cases indicate disease is spreading</font></center>

(Turkish Daily News Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)Preliminary tests showed five more people have been infected with the deadly H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus in Turkey, a Health Ministry official said on Monday, indicating the disease was spreading</b>

A World Health Organization (WHO) official warned on Monday that the chances the disease may mutate into a dangerous form are rising with every new human infection.

Turkish laboratories detected the H5N1 strain in the five new cases, which occurred in four separate provinces, according to a Health Ministry official speaking on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to speak to the media.

The new cases -- which have not yet been confirmed by the World Health Organization -- raise the number of suspected and confirmed cases in Turkey to 15.

In addition, more than 60 people with flu-like symptoms who had come in close contact with fowl were hospitalized around the country by Monday and were undergoing tests, officials said.

"The more humans infected with the avian virus, the more chance it has to adapt," Guenael R.M. Rodier, a senior WHO official for communicable diseases, said during a visit to Doethubayazyt, a town bordering Iran where three children have died.

"We may be playing with fire," he said.

Health officials are watching the disease's spread and development for fear it could mutate into a form easily transmitted between people and spark a pandemic. Apart from giving confirmation to the Turkish cases, WHO labs are also watching out for genetic changes in the virus that could allow it to pass from human to human.

The four cases confirmed so far involved people who were in close contact with fowl, suggesting they were most likely infected directly by birds, health officials say.

The five newest cases came from four provinces in eastern and central Turkey, as well as the Black Sea coast, according to Health Ministry official Turan Buzgan.

Ten people had earlier tested positive for H5N1 in tests in Turkish labs, four of which have been confirmed by the WHO.

Those four include two siblings who died last week in the eastern city of Van -- the first confirmed fatalities caused by the virus outside of eastern Asia, where 74 people have died from H5N1 since 2003. A third sibling also died from bird flu in Van, but a WHO lab has not yet confirmed that it was H5N1.

"It's clear that the virus is well established in the region," Rodier said. "The frontline between children and animals, particularly backyard poultry, is too large," he said, adding that contact between poultry and people must be minimized.

On Sunday, three H5N1 cases were reported in Ankara and two more in Van. Ankara is about 1,000 kilometers west of Van.

The cases in Ankara included two young brothers and a 65-year-old man, all who tested positive for H5N1 in preliminary tests by Turkish labs.

The boys in Ankara -- aged five and two -- caught the virus while playing with the gloves their father had used to handle two dead wild ducks outside of Ankara. An eight-year-old girl was hospitalized in Van with what Turkish labs showed was H5N1. She apparently contracted the virus by hugging and kissing dead chickens.

On Monday, Health Minister Recep Akdaeth along with WHO officials arrived in Doethubayazyt, where most of the cases have originated.

"If as a community, we take the necessary measures and educate [people] we can combat this in a short period of time," Akdaeth said. "We will manage to slow its progress."

However, he said that because Turkey was on the path of migratory birds, the country would continue to be at risk in years to come, and urged people to abandon raising poultry in backyards.

"The earlier we realize this, the earlier we will be rid of bird flu," he said.

Akdaeth climbed up a snowy hill to visit Zeki Kocyigit, the father of the three siblings who succumbed to the disease. As he left, villagers shouted behind him, complaining that there were not enough doctors.

The doctor who treated the three children in Van said they probably contracted the illness by playing with dead chickens.

Health officials believe the best way to fight the spread of bird flu is the wholesale destruction of poultry in the affected area. But they often run into problems in rural areas such as Doethubayazyt, where villagers have resisted turning in their animals.

On Sunday, a group of Turkish health workers in Doethubayazyt had to climb over a wall when a woman refused to open the door and hand over her several chickens, insisting they were not sick. The workers could not persuade her to part with the chickens and left, saying they would return with the police.

In Istanbul, where bird flu in fowl was detected in some neighborhoods on the city's outskirts, authorities imposed a quarantine, banning the entry and exit of poultry and disinfecting people leaving the area.

Panic giving way to anger: Panic gave way to anger on Monday in the eastern town of Doethubayazyt, home of Turkey's first bird flu deaths, as residents accused the government of letting them down because they are Kurds

"The authorities are not interested in us because we're Kurds," said Mehmet Gultekin, a local leader

He said they were receiving help only from municipal workers sympathetic to the Kurds in the town of around 56,000 inhabitants.

Gultekin pointed to a group of farmers who had gathered in front of the local agriculture building, clutching bags of chickens

"Look, people are bringing their chickens here themselves," he said. "They're working while the government workers sleep." Municipal teams struggling to collect the poultry said they were doing their best with limited means. "We're doing what we can, but there aren't enough of us," said Ybrahim Giglal, a local employee dressed in the increasingly familiar white overall for protection from the deadly bird flu

He said that 12 teams each consisting of three members had collected 16,000 chickens in the town of Doethubayazyt, and confirmed that none of the 84 surrounding villages had yet been investigated

"Each province has called up all their staff, so we can't get reinforcements," he added

Europe announces new measures: The European Commission, the European Union's executive arm, specifically announced new import bans on six mostly Mideastern countries surrounding eastern Turkey, where the latest outbreak is centered

Europe has been on bird flu alert since October, when a spate of cases was reported on its southeastern flank. But those outbreaks appeared to have been contained, until the latest resurgence in Turkey

An EU spokesman underlined that despite the rash of testing over the last few months -- around 25,000 birds have been tested since October -- no positive case of the disease has been found in one of the bloc's 25 member states

"There has been no reported case of H5N1 in the European Union to date," said commission spokesman Michael Mann, referring to the potentially deadly strain of bird flu responsible for deaths in Asia

The new measures banned the import of untreated feathers from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Syria, Iran and Iraq. Imports of all other at-risk products have already been banned from these countries.

Limited outbreaks were also reported in a number of countries on Europe's southeastern border, including Romania and Croatia, while the disease also spread further into Russia

In Britain on Monday, the head of the country's leading medical research organization called for vigilance, especially warning travelers to stay away from eastern Turkey and from affected urban areas in particular

"Although it's not a cause for panic, it's certainly a cause for concern, preparation and vigilance," said Colin Blakemore, chairman of the government-funded Medical Research Council.
 
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<B><center>AFX UK Focus) 2006-01-17 04:52 GMT:

Transparency, outside aid key in China bird flu fight - EU official

Article layout: raw
<A href="http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=5523464&action=article">Business Finance News</a></center>
BEIJING (AFX) - Transparent communications and external cooperation are key to controlling bird flu in China, which is on the front lines of the battle against the disease, a visiting EU official said.</b>

"Improved surveillance, transparency and technical cooperation within the region and with the EU is key to winning this battle. But most exposed and less affluent countries also need financial support, and the EU is ready to play its part," European Health and Consumer Protection Commissioner Markos Kyprianou said ahead of a bird flu conference in Beijing.

Speaking prior to the International Pledging Conference on Avian and Human Influenza, he said that better coordination at the global level is necessary to tackle the spread of avian flu and any possible outbreak of a human influenza pandemic.

"Asia, and in particular China, is at the forefront in this fight," Kyprianou said.

The commission is co-hosting the ministerial conference today and tomorrow with the World Bank and the government of China.

Kyprianou will also visit a medical laboratory specializing in avian flu and SARS, and the infectious disease ward of a local hospital, an EU statement said.

During his visit, Kyprianou will meet Prime Minister Wen Jiabao as well as the health minister Gao Qiang, the agriculture minister and the head of the Agency for Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ).

"At the bird flu conference, the European Commission will pledge its external response to the threat of avian flu. The conference's aim is to mobilize and coordinate the financial support from donors to boost the response to avian influenza and potential flu pandemic at the national, regional and global level," the EU statement said.

Most of the pledged funds will support integrated national response strategies in third countries in addition to the considerable individual efforts these countries are making. Kyprianou will formally announce the commission's pledge, coming from the external relations budget and the European Development Fund, on behalf of the commission, the statement added.

"During the conference, the commissioner will stress the need for increased monitoring of high-risk areas, surveillance of domestic poultry and wild birds, and bio-security in poultry farms. He will underline key measures to be taken in terms of networking of laboratories, cooperation between veterinary and public health authorities, exchange of information between countries, and contingency planning," the statement said.

Last week, a World Health Organization (WHO) spokesman said that two more Chinese nationals diagnosed with bird flu have died from the disease, bringing the total number of human fatalities in the country to five.

A 10-year-old girl died on Dec 16 and a 35-year-old man died on Dec 30, said Roy Wadia, the WHO's Beijing-based spokesman, adding that the health ministry had informed the organization of the deaths.

China has reported eight cases of H5N1 human infections since late last year, with five of those infected succumbing to the virus.

andrew.pasek@xinhuafinance.com

ap/tr
 

Rams82

Inactive
Israel bird flu scare proves unfounded

By JUDY SIEGEL-ITZKOVICH

The lab at Hadassah University Medical Center found on Monday night that a 50-year-old east Jerusalem man who developed flu symptoms and who raises chickens - five of which died in the past few days - does not have the deadly avian flu strain.

In making the announcement the Health Ministry said it was waiting for confirmation from the infections diseases lab at Sheba Medical Center, but expected that the results would be the same.

The man, who lives in the village of Tzur Baher, was hospitalized in isolation at Hadassah University Medical Center in Ein Kerem as a precautionary measure.

The Agriculture Ministry Veterinary Service has not yet released the results of tests of the dead chickens. Poultry can die from a variety of causes, including Newcastle disease, which is common in the region but does not harm humans.

There is no cure for avian flu, which is spread by direct contact between infected poultry or birds and humans but so far has not mutated into a strain that can be spread from person to person. It kills about half of humans infected by birds with 79 people having died worldwide in the past year, including several children in Turkey during the past two weeks.

There has been no confirmed report of the avian flu strain H5N1 in Israel this winter, although it was reported in birds here in previous years. It did not, however, infect humans. A few weeks ago, a man in the north who works with birds complained of flu symptoms but lab tests showed he had not contracted the H5N1 virus. He recovered uneventfully.

Meanwhile, Dr. Yossi Leshem, a Tel Aviv University ornithologist and director of the International Center for the Study of Bird Migration told reporters that the virus could have arrived in Israel from abroad.

"It is quite possible that some birds, such as cranes, ducks and cormorants, have recently arrived. There is also the possibility that a bird carrying the disease arrived in November and is wintering in Israel. The avian flu could have been incubated since then," Leshem said.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1136361094016&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull
 

okie medicvet

Inactive
the most discouraging part of all this for me is remebering that the 'spanish flu' took down those in their 'prime'..

funny never thought I would be glad I have been 'sick' a lot of my life..and never wished that the same could be said for mykids..

anyone want to take a bet on how soon this hits 'home'..

on how soon the US HAS CASES?

I'm willing to bet by end of summer at the latest.. dammit.. :(

"them summer colds are the worst".
 

JPD

Inactive
Liaoning Amantadane Use Signal Major H5N1 Human Outbreak?

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01160602/H5N1_Liaoning_Amantadanes.html

Recombinomics Commentary
January 16, 2006

When bird flu began killing chickens across Liaoning province in northeastern China late last year, officials took the preventive step. Without waiting to determine whether the virus had spread among people, they appear to have distributed antiviral drugs to farmers and cullers who might have been exposed to the sick birds.

Northeast Pharmaceutical Group Co., a Liaoning drug company, says it sent five million pills of amantadine, rimantadine and vitamin C to Heishan county's civil affairs department in November. Li Zunjie, office director of the Heishan Health Bureau, says that after bird flu spread to the county, the provincial health department had called on local pharmaceutical companies to donate antiviral drugs. Mr. Li, who doesn't recall how many pills were involved, says he then distributed the drugs to the farmers and cullers.

The above comments on the shipment of major quantities of amantadine and rimantadine to Liaoning province in November coincides with boxun reports of 77 human fatalities in cullers in Liaoning province.

China filed a number of OIE reports describing outbreaks in Jinshou, Fuxin, as well as six towns in Heishan county that involved domestic poultry and wild birds. The OIE reports also indicated three different bird vaccines were used.

The multiple reports and multiple vaccines suggested the outbreaks were hard to control and boxun reports indicated cullers were called in from other provinces and a fatal version of H5N1 spread through the cullers killing 77.

77 deaths would be a record number of fatalities for one region and the shipment of amantadine and rimantadine to the area supports the involvement of H5N1 wild bird flu, which is sensitive to the amantadanes. The large number of pills suggest that a major outbreak among humans may have happened.

Officially, China has only reported one human case in Liaoning Province, but the recent outbreak in Turkey suggests H5N1 can quickly spread over a large area and infect many people.

In Turkey HA S227N has been identified, which would increase the affinity for human receptors. However, all H5N1 wild bird sequences since the May 2005 outbreak at Qinghai Lake have also had PB2 E627K, which allows for more efficient replication in colder temperatures, which may have been the case in Liaoning Province in November.

If the boxun reports are accurate, the human cases in China are being significantly under reported. China has reported 3 cases in Hunan, but most reports only describe 1-2 cases and China has limited official cases to those from whom H5N1 was isolated. These stringent requirements may generate a significant undercount in official cases that would be more extreme than the undercount created by WHO requirements which are frequently not met because of poor sample collection.

A high number of human fatalities in China would be a concern because of the large number of outbreaks linked to migratory birds. These birds will likely carry H5N1 throughout China and into southeast Asia, which may be leading to larger clusters of cases in Indonesia also.

The presence of H5N1 in long rage migratory birds with have PB2 E627K fixed could have catastrophic consequences. The large number of cases and clusters in Turkey are cause for concern. Moreover, if the reports of large numbers of human fatalities in Liaoning in November are accurate, the more lethal human cases of H5N1 infections throughout China would be expected.
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
UN official urges steps for Europe to avoid flu
By Elisabeth Rosenthal International Herald Tribune

TUESDAY, JANUARY 17, 2006​

ROME With outbreaks of bird flu continuing in Turkey, European countries should adopt policies such as increased checks of airline passengers and their belongings to prevent the disease from spreading across the Continent, a UN agriculture official recommended here Monday.

"Europe in particular ought to step up in this type of risk management," said Samuel Jutzi, head of the animal production and health division at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome.

European nations, he said, should consider requiring arriving travelers to fill out forms detailing their travel history and the agricultural products in their possession, as has long been the policy when entering the United States. Jutzi noted that some of those products, such as feathers and chicken parts, might introduce the bird flu virus H5N1 into countries where it is not yet present.

There are 80 flights a day into Frankfurt alone from countries now affected by bird flu, for example, and passengers are largely unscreened, Jutzi said. When the German authorities carried out spot checks on 300 flights over a three-month period at the end last year, they confiscated 9.5 tons "of items that should not have been brought in," he said.

As the World Bank prepared to convene a meeting of international donors in Beijing on Tuesday to solicit more than $1 billion to fight bird flu, officials here stressed that human commerce must be better monitored and controlled. While they acknowledged the Turkish claim that the country was vulnerable because it is at a crossroads of wild bird migration routes, they said that was only part of the story.

"It's very easy to blame bird migration, because then no one's responsible," said Juan Lubroth, a senior UN scientist who has spent the last week in Turkey investigating the outbreaks there. "Migrating birds may introduce the virus into an area, but it is human activity that spreads it."

Jutzi said there was "no reason to believe that the virus in eastern Turkey had not already passed the border into neighboring countries," and researchers would be sent to investigate that possibility. The remote towns of eastern Turkey most affected by bird flu in recent weeks are on trade routes into Iran and Armenia and other nearby countries should be aware as well. "Syria is at risk, Bulgaria is at risk," Jutzi said.

In Turkey, Lubroth said, the simultaneous outbreaks in distant regions of the country may have been caused in part by the practice of commercial poultry farms sending huge truckloads of old and unproductive hens to the countryside to sell to poor farmers, potentially seeding outbreaks if even one of those birds was ill. "That practice has come to a standstill," he said.

Twenty people in Turkey, all of whom had close contact with sick birds, have been confirmed as infected over the past two weeks and four of them have died. The most recent victim was a 12-year-old girl, Fatma Ozcan, who initially tested negative for the disease. She died Sunday and it was determined Monday that she had the virus.

In Southeast Asia, where bird flu first appeared in 1997, there have been about 140 cases over a period of three years. Jutzi said that Turkey's colder temperatures might allow the virus to live longer and give humans a greater chance of becoming infected.

There are now 19 confirmed outbreaks of bird flu in Turkey and the government announced Monday that it was culling birds in 29 provinces where flu was "confirmed or suspected."

Lubroth suggested there might well be more to come. "As we are now combing the countryside to identify new outbreaks, we will see if this is the tip of the iceberg," he said.

All of the deaths in Turkey have occurred in the eastern city of Dogubayazit - 40 kilometers, or 25 miles, from Iran. Truckloads of old hens from other parts of Turkey arrived regularly in Dogubayazit until about three weeks ago, residents said.

The H5N1 virus does not readily spread from animal to man, and there is no evidence at all of human to human transmission. But scientists are worried that the virus might acquire that ability and precipitate a pandemic.

Lubroth praised Turkey's current "response and transparency," noting that over the weekend Ankara had created a special commission to fight the disease and recruited provincial governors into the fight, a move that made the army available for control efforts. In the last week, 760,000 birds have been killed to contain the disease, the government announced Monday.

In its early stages, flu outbreaks can be contained by culling all birds and restricting animal movements in an out of the affected areas.

But Lubroth said that lack of funds was a major impediment to containing disease. He said the government still had a chance to prevent the virus from becoming permanently entrenched, "if the Turkish government has enough resources," he said.

To that end, officials here expressed hope that far more money would be available after the Beijing conference. "The international community will finally come up with the funding to fight this disease," Jutzi said.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/16/news/flu.php

:vik:
 

JPD

Inactive
Turkish boy critical in bird-flu battle​

http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=169457650&p=y69458356

17/01/2006 - 09:58:29

A five-year-old boy battling the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain in Turkey was reported to be in a critical condition today as experts awaited test results on three others admitted to hospital with symptoms at Europe’s doorstep.

Muhammet Ozcan, whose 12-year-old sister, Fatma, died on Sunday of the disease, was listed as critical at a hospital in the eastern city of Van. He was being treated for fever and a lung infection.

Both children came from Dogubayazit, the same town where three siblings died of bird flu about 10 days ago. Fatma was the fourth Turkish child to die of H5N1, according to preliminary tests, and the country’s 20th human case.

Five patients have been discharged from hospitals, leaving only 11 still being treated, the health ministry said yesterday.

In Geneva, World Health Organisation (WHO) spokeswoman Maria Cheng said the agency accepted the 20 human cases reported by Turkey, but was waiting for the results of further tests by a British lab before changing its official toll, which stands at four cases, including two deaths.

Samples had been held up by a religious holiday in Turkey, but were expected to arrive in Britain, Cheng said. Results would start coming back this week, she said.

Experts are concerned that the virus could mutate into a form that would spread easily among humans, triggering a pandemic capable of killing millions. The WHO has stressed that it has no evidence of person-to-person infection occurring in Turkey.

Turkey’s crisis continued to unnerve its neighbours Greece’s health minister urged Greeks to avoid travelling to Turkey, and Syria said it had begun disinfecting people and vehicles at border crossings.

A politician in Russia, meanwhile, said his government would fly home more than 8,000 hajj pilgrims who had travelled to Mecca via Turkish provinces to avoid subjecting them to further risk.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation warned that bird flu might already have spread from Turkey to neighbouring countries, though it said it had no confirmation of that. It said Armenia, Georgia, Iran and Syria were at risk along with Bulgaria, Moldova, Iraq and Ukraine.

“You have to face the fact that the virus is in their neighbourhood,” said Samuel Jutzi, who heads the agency’s animal health-division.

Turkish agriculture minister Mehdi Eker also asserted that the disease had spread, and suggested some countries were concealing it.

“Certain closed regimes are hiding this. We know for fact that this disease exists in other places, but there are some (countries) that are hiding it,” he said in an interview with NTV television.

With Turks complaining of symptoms still checking into hospitals, there were concerns that the virus might still be spreading despite the precautionary slaughter of 931,000 chickens, geese and turkeys.

Health officials said all 20 people with confirmed H5N1 infection appeared to have touched or played with birds.

Among those getting treatment were three children with bird-flu symptoms in Istanbul, where Europe and Asia meet at the Bosporus Strait. Officials were waiting to see if tests confirmed that they, too, were infected with H5N1.

At least 77 people in east and south-east Asia have died since the virus first surfaced there in 2003, the WHO says. It has been tracking the outbreak closely to determine whether the virus is changing.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip’s cabinet met to discuss further measures to combat the outbreak, and authorities yesterday banned the transport of all birds and hoofed animals, except racehorses, as a precaution.
 

JPD

Inactive
Turkish Five-Member Family in Hospital with Probable Bird Flu Infection​

http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?catid=127&ch=0&newsid=80880&PHPSESSID=ruhacb56envtc5at9l4rpbb541

17 January 2006 | 11:01 | FOCUS News Agency

Konya. A five-member family from Konya province in Turkey has been admitted into the Konya town hospital on account of feeling sick after eating chicken meat, online edition Interhaber informs. Hatidje (27), Kamile (55), Erol (38) and the two children had eaten the meat of the chicken they own.
 

JPD

Inactive
More bird flu deaths as experts meet on crisis​

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/new...120105Z_01_DIT050257_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU.xml

By Ben Blanchard and Lindsay Beck

BEIJING (Reuters) - Bird flu experts meeting in Beijing said on Tuesday the world urgently needed to amass a war chest to fight bird flu and prepare nations should a pandemic strain emerge.

Underscoring that urgency, Indonesia's health ministry said a toddler who died on Tuesday was being tested for bird flu days after his 13-year-old sister died of the H5N1 virus, according to local tests. A surviving sister is also being tested.

Turkey said on Monday a fourth person had died of avian flu, as authorities slaughtered tens of thousands of birds to try to contain the outbreak. Neighbouring nations feared the virus might spread.

"There is a significant shortfall of funds in many affected countries ... which will seriously hamper their prevention and control efforts," Qiao Zonghuai, Chinese vice foreign minister, told the donors' conference in Beijing.

"In the fight against avian influenza, no country can stay safe by looking the other way," he said.

Bird flu has killed at least 79 people since 2003 and has now arrived at the gates of Europe and the Middle East.

While difficult for people to catch, nearly 150 people are known to have been infected by H5N1 in six countries, killing more than half its victims, a death rate that reinforced fears about the havoc the virus could wreak if a pandemic occurs.

"It is going more and more toward the western part of the world," Food and Agriculture Organization Chief Veterinary Officer Joseph Domenech told Reuters in Beijing.

"If the mobilization of the funds is not coming immediately, in a couple of months we'll need more money."

FEAR AND UNCERTAINTY

The World Bank estimates that between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion will be needed to prepare for and respond to outbreaks. The Bank has estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting a year could cost the global economy up to $800 billion.

A senior World Health Organization official told delegates the risks from a bird flu pandemic were great.

"Timing is unpredictable and the severity is uncertain," Margaret Chan, the WHO's top pandemic expert, told the conference, attended by delegates from 89 countries and more than 20 international organizations.

The Bank approved a $500 million line of credit last week toward the $1.2 billion target and the European Union has pledged $100 million in aid. More significant pledges are expected.

In Indonesia, a health ministry official said the latest local test results on the dead 3-year-old boy were not conclusive, although an initial result had earlier shown he was positive for the virus. His 13-year-old sister died of the virus, local tests show.

H5N1 is already endemic across parts of Asia and has been found in wild birds and poultry over a third of Turkey.

Turkish officials said the country had recorded a total of 20 human cases, including the four deaths, in two weeks.

The brother of the girl who died on Sunday was in critical condition in eastern Turkey. He has tested positive for H5N1.

Turkish authorities have culled 932,000 birds over the past two weeks to try to contain the crisis. The Agriculture Ministry had imposed a nationwide ban on the transit of poultry.

The FAO's Domenech said there was still the chance to keep the virus from becoming endemic in Turkey.

"We really think they still have the capacity to eradicate it even if they've had so many outbreaks," he told reporters.

IRAN AND CAUCASUS

But Turkey's neighbors were also under threat.

"The Caucasus region and Iran are countries where the usual trade movements are bringing very high risk of contamination. So the surveillance in these countries has to be intensified.

"If the virus keeps circulating in this area (Turkey), during next spring when wildlife is coming back from places like Africa it will stop again in these areas and go further," he said.

With donors and lending agencies focused on ramping up the fight against bird flu, there have been concerns that money might be drawn from other health programs.

"My argument is, whatever resources you put in place, compared to the possible economic loss in the event of a pandemic, is peanuts," Chan told reporters in Beijing.

"The kind of investment for pandemic preparedness will serve the long-term interests of global health security," she said.

Some poor nations are also worried about missing out on crucial flu-fight funds, fearing they might be overlooked. Tanzania called for specific country pledges and regional, rather than global, funding.

A conference statement from the Tanzanian delegation in Beijing said the country was at risk because it is along migratory bird routes and needed $9.3 million but could only raise about $120,000 from internal resources.

(For more stories, pictures and video on bird flu see: http://today.reuters.com/News/GlobalCoverage.aspx?type=globalNew

s) (Additional reporting by Paul de Bendern and Daren Butler in

Turkey)
 

Seabird

Veteran Member
The coming months are a concern, as the Southern Hemisphere enters it's winter season (while we play with hurricanes in the States). But this bug will get to continue it's mutation through their cold and flu season, giving it an endless opportunity. Not good.

But I do wish to say to all of the health care workers on this board: be wary of the germs in your hospitals. I went to visit one of my employees who was in a severe car accident Friday night. She was in the Surgical ICU, where everything was scrubbed and sterile around her. All I did was put my hand on the rail at the end of her bed. That's all. I went home and not even seven hours later, I was sick as a dog. I called the hospital to see if my employee needed anything the next day, and the nurse said that a wicked virus was going around the place.

I run preschools, and no bug travels that fast. If something really deadly like BF comes to your hospital, there would be little chance of escaping it. It makes me think the virus' are truly becoming resistant to antibacterial cleaners. Pretty scary.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Kazakhstan Braces For Possible Bird-Flu Outbreaks </font>

(RFE/RL)
<A href="http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/01/becd15e3-3d0c-44c4-8662-40ff690272b5.html">www.rferl.org</a></center>
17 January 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Kazakhstan is warning that migratory birds could bring more outbreaks of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu to the country this spring.</b>

Kenes Ospanov, a top physician at the Health Ministry, said today the country has equipped labs to conduct preliminary tests of any reported human cases of avian influenza within hours.

"In our labs we have diagnostic equipment which allow us to conduct checkups -- 300-350 people per day. We bought them with the help of American companies. If need be -- God protect us -- we are able to clarify the bird-flu situation within three hours," Ospanov said.

An outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain in July killed hundreds of geese in the north of Kazakhstan.

World Health Organization official Bernardos Ganter told RFE/RL that migrating birds could spread the virus to other Central Asian nations.

Nearly 80 people have died from bird flu in East Asia and Turkey since 2003. Most human cases have been traced to contact with infected birds.

(RFE/RL's Kazakh and Uzbek services, AP)
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Turkey confirms 21st human bird flu case</font>

(01.17.06, 16:43)
<A href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3201834,00.html">Ynetnews.com</a></center></b>
Another child has tested positive for the deadly bird flu virus which has already killed four children in Turkey, the health ministry said on Tuesday.

The latest case brings the total number of confirmed H5N1 cases among humans in Turkey to 21 over the past two weeks, including the four deaths. (Reuters)
 
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<B><font size=+0 color=green><center>CHINA REJECTS TAIWAN'S PARTICIPATION IN BEIJING BIRD FLU MEETING </font>

2006-01-17 22:40:16
<A href="http://www.cna.com.tw/eng/cepread.php?id=200601170045">www.cna.com</a></center></b>
Taipei, Jan. 17 (CNA) Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) officials expressed deep regret and discontent Tuesday over China's refusal to allow Taiwan to take part in an international conference on bird flu control and prevention in Beijing.
 
=



<B><center>Britian


<font size=+1 color=blue>'FLU PANDEMIC PLANS IN PLACE' </font>

12:00 - 17 January 2006
<A href="http://www.thisisexeter.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=137199&command=displayContent&sourceNode=136986&contentPK=13847834&folderPk=79934">www.thisisexeter.co.uk</a></center>
Plans are in place to deal with a flu pandemic, according to a Devon health boss. Becky Jenkins, director of public health at Mid Devon Primary Care Trust, said: "Major incident and communicable disease plans are in place.</b>

"Planning specifically for the flu pandemic is an ongoing process and plans will be updated further as we learn more. There is no vaccine for pandemic flu yet and it is not possible to create one until the virus is circulating.

"The extent of pressure on the health care system will not be established until a pandemic is under way but business continuity plans to ensure GP practices, pharmacy, and community services work together are being established.

"Our local plan follows an agreed framework across Devon."
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Bird flu crisis meeting amid more deaths</font>

January 17, 2006
<A href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Bird-flu-crisis-meeting-amid-more-deaths/2006/01/17/1137466996022.html">www.theage.com.au</a></center>
Bird flu experts meeting in Beijing say the world urgently needs to amass a war chest to fight bird flu and prepare nations should a pandemic strain emerge.</b>

Underscoring that urgency, Indonesia's health ministry said a toddler who died on Tuesday was being tested for bird flu days after his 13-year-old sister died of the H5N1 virus, according to local tests. A surviving sister is also being tested.

Turkey said a fourth person had died of avian flu, as authorities slaughtered tens of thousands of birds to try to contain the outbreak. Neighbouring nations feared the virus might spread.

"There is a significant shortfall of funds in many affected countries ... which will seriously hamper their prevention and control efforts," Qiao Zonghuai, Chinese vice foreign minister, told the donors' conference in Beijing.

"In the fight against avian influenza, no country can stay safe by looking the other way," he said.

Bird flu has killed at least 79 people since 2003 and has now arrived at the gates of Europe and the Middle East.

While difficult for people to catch, nearly 150 people are known to have been infected by H5N1 in six countries, killing more than half its victims, a death rate that reinforced fears about the havoc the virus could wreak if a pandemic occurs.

"It is going more and more towards the western part of the world," Food and Agriculture Organisation Chief Veterinary Officer Joseph Domenech told Reuters in Beijing.

"If the mobilisation of the funds is not coming immediately, in a couple of months we'll need more money."

The World Bank estimates that between $US1.2 billion ($A1.59 billion) and $US1.4 billion ($A1.86 billion) will be needed to prepare for and respond to outbreaks. The Bank has estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting a year could cost the global economy up to $US800 billion ($A1.06 trillion).

A senior World Health Organisation official told delegates the risks from a bird flu pandemic were great.

"Timing is unpredictable and the severity is uncertain," Margaret Chan, the WHO's top pandemic expert, told the conference, attended by delegates from 89 countries and more than 20 international organisations.

The Bank approved a $US500 million ($A663.22 million) line of credit last week towards the $US1.2 billion ($A1.59 billion) target and the European Union has pledged $US100 million ($A132.64 million) in aid. More significant pledges are expected.

In Indonesia, a health ministry official said the latest local test results on the dead three-year-old boy were not conclusive, although an initial result had earlier shown he was positive for the virus. His 13-year-old sister died of the virus, local tests show.

H5N1 is already endemic across parts of Asia and has been found in wild birds and poultry over a third of Turkey.

Turkish officials said the country had recorded a total of 20 human cases, including the four deaths, in two weeks.

The brother of the girl who died on Sunday was in critical condition in eastern Turkey. He has tested positive for H5N1.

Turkish authorities have culled 932,000 birds over the past two weeks to try to contain the crisis. The Agriculture Ministry had imposed a nationwide ban on the transit of poultry.

The FAO's Domenech said there was still the chance to keep the virus from becoming endemic in Turkey.

"We really think they still have the capacity to eradicate it even if they've had so many outbreaks," he told reporters.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>China Hosts Bird Flu Conference Amid Pandemic Warnings</b></font>

<i>"In the fight against avian influenza, no country can stay safe by looking the other way," Qiao told the conference. (Reuters).</i>

<B><A href="http://www.islamonline.org/English/News/2006-01/17/article02.shtml">www.islamonline.org</a></center>
BEIJING, January 17, 2006 (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies) – A two-day international donors' meeting opened here on Tuesday, January 17, with the aim of raising $1.5 billion to help fight bird flu amid warnings of a "great risk" of a global pandemic.</b>

"We live on the same planet and our destinies are interconnected," China's Vice Foreign Minister Qiao Zonghuai told the opening session of the International Pledging Conference on Avian and Human Influenza, reported Agence France-Presse (AFP).

"In the fight against avian influenza, no country can stay safe by looking the other way."

Officials from almost half the world's nations and 25 organizations gathered to come up with the money needed to finance a three-year action plan that was laid out at the first donors' conference in Geneva in November.

The conference, co-sponsored by China, the European Commission and the World Bank, is aiming to assess the financing needs at country, regional and global levels.

It will invite the international community to pledge financial support and discuss how to set up mechanisms to coordinate the fight against bird flu.

Global Risk

Margaret Chan, the World Health Organization's special representative on pandemic influenza, gave a stark picture of the uncertainty facing the world over the H5N1 strain of the virus.

"The risk of a pandemic is great. The timing is unpredictable and the severity is uncertain," Chan told the conference.

Bird flu, which has killed nearly 80 people mostly in East Asia since 2003, has spread to the Middle East and Europe over the past year.

Turkey confirmed on Monday, January 16, its fourth human fatality. Three children have earlier died from avian flu in Turkey, the first human victims reported outside east Asia since H5N1 reemerged in 2003.

A man from Al-Quds (occupied east Jerusalem) was undergoing urgent tests on Monday for possible bird flu after a number of chickens he was keeping died.

The highly pathogenic strain of bird flu is endemic in poultry in parts of Asia, and has affected birds in two-thirds of the provinces in Muslim Indonesia, an archipelago of about 17,000 islands and 220 million people.

Since reappearing in Southeast Asia in 2003, the H5N1 strain of bird flu has infected about 150 people, killing about 80, in six countries, according to the WHO's toll.

The deadly virus is not known to pass easily between humans at the moment, but experts fear it could develop that ability and set off a global pandemic that might kill millions of people.

Funds


"The EU, we're dedicating a pledge of 100 million euros, which is roughly 120 million dollars," Kyprianou told AFP. (Reuters).


Qiao lamented a "significant shortfall of funds" in many affected countries and international agencies, which would "seriously hamper" their prevention and control efforts.

"Convened at this crucial moment, the pledging conference, therefore, is of great significance to mobilizing necessary resources and technical assistance and enhancing international cooperation."

The EU will increase its financial pledge to fight bird flu to $120 million (100 million euros), a senior official said.

"The European Union, we're dedicating a pledge of 100 million euros, which is roughly 120 million dollars," Markos Kyprianou, EU Commissioner for Health and Consumer Protection, told AFP.

The offer is $20 million more than the initial pledge the EU said last week it would make at the conference.

Kyprianou said the EU pledge will be on a par with the pledge from the US.

The sum will include 35 million euros earmarked for Asian countries, said another senior EU official last week.

Funds raised will be given to needy countries in the form of grants and low-interest loans to help them strengthen surveillance.

This will include the training of agriculture and health workers and strategies to better detect outbreaks and cases, and how to respond to them.

Money will also be used to expand the global stockpile of anti-viral drugs and to prepare a currently non-existent human vaccine.

Drugs Donations

The global effort to stockpile drugs received a timely boost at the conference with the WHO announcing that Swiss drugs maker Roche had agreed to donate a second batch of Tamiflu, the frontline medicine against H5N1.

"They were very generous. They have agreed to donate another two million courses, that is 20 million doses for use by affected countries," Chan said.

The donation is in addition to a pledge Roche made last year to provide 30 million Tamiflu doses to the WHO.

Experts told the conference that for the global plan to work and the funding to be used effectively, it was crucial the global community showed strong political commitment, was transparent and coordinated with each other.

"Unless we are working as one, we don't get a good result," said David Nabarro, senior UN system coordinator for avian and human influenza.

Scientists fear that the more the virus spreads, the greater the chance H5N1 will mutate into a form that is easily transmissible between humans. This could spark a global pandemic that could claim millions of lives.

"This is not just a meeting to raise money. What's also an important outcome is acknowledgement by the international community that this is a global threat," Kyprianou said.

"We're not to help certain countries or regions out of charity. It's because it's a global threat and we need a global defense."
 

JPD

Inactive
May be a tad bit too conservative....

Bird Flu Pandemic May Cost $133 Bln; Nations Prepare (Update1)​

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aHftYejEv3h0&refer=europe

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- An avian influenza outbreak in humans may cost life insurance companies as much as $133 billion, a U.S.-based industry group estimated today as world leaders met in Beijing to discuss measures against a pandemic.

Expenses from death claims from a moderate flu outbreak may run as high as $31 billion, Insurance Information Institute economist Steven Weisbart wrote in a report on the group's Web site. By comparison, U.S. life insurers paid about $51 billion on individual and group policy claims in 2004, the report said.

Bird flu has spread from Southeast Asia to the fringe of Europe in recent weeks, heightening concerns that it may mutate into a form that can be passed from one person to the other. Such a virus may touch off a pandemic similar to the one that killed as many as 50 million people in 1918.

``We have no modern experience with vast health disasters,'' Weisbart wrote in the report on life insurers.

Scientists, government leaders and health experts are gathered in Beijing this week to discuss how to prevent a pandemic. As much as $1.5 billion is being sought from countries attending the conference.

Economic Impact

The SARS epidemic cost an estimated $800 billion to the world economy, said Andrew Vorkink, World Bank's Turkey director. If avian influenza was full blown to a global pandemic, it could costs ``hundreds of billions,'' he said in a phone interview from Ankara.

Bird flu outbreaks in Turkey won't hurt the country's economy because the effect is limited to the poultry industry, which accounts for less than 1 percent of the gross domestic product, Vorkink said. The tourism industry will be hurt if the spread of the virus in Turkey can't be stopped, since visitors are the country's second-biggest source of foreign currency behind textiles, he said.

Turkey's situation has ``galvanized people's attention,'' James Adams, vice president of operational policy at the World Bank, said in an interview today. ``If anything, people are going to commit a little larger funds than we are asking for.''

Tamiflu Donation

Bird flu has spread to more provinces of Turkey, where the health ministry today confirmed another case, bringing the total number of infected people to 21. Poultry outbreaks are confirmed in 13 of Turkey's 81 provinces and suspected outbreaks in 23 provinces are under investigation, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said today in a televised speech.

The H5N1 virus has killed at least 79 people of the 148 known to have been infected, according to the WHO.

Roche Holding AG is giving enough of its Tamiflu flu medication to the WHO to treat 2 million people in developing countries. Turkey has distributed 15,000 doses of the medicine and ordered another 100,000 doses, according to Erdogan.

The Swiss company said today it's giving 20 million doses of Tamiflu, which has shown it can fight the virus in animals, in addition to the 3 million treatments Roche donated in August. The WHO now has access to just over 5 million doses.

`Fire Blanket'

The August donation was ``meant as the fire blanket used to contain damage if we were receiving signals that we are moving into the beginning of a pandemic,'' Margaret Chan, the WHO's senior avian influenza coordinator, told reporters in Beijing. The latest one is intended for use in developing countries that may not be able to afford Tamiflu, Chan said.

The World Bank said in November it may give $500 million in loans and grants and try to get donations of another $500 million to help developing countries fight the disease.

The European Union today raised its promised contribution to 100 million euros ($121 million) from the 80 million euros pledged last week. The money will come from the centralized budget of the 25-nation EU and individual countries will further swell the figure, spokesman Philip Tod said in Brussels.
 

JPD

Inactive
Avian flu endangers unprotected employers​

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10873985/

By Katy Lieber
East Bay Business Times
Updated: 7:00 p.m. ET Jan. 15, 2006

The avian flu could sicken 75 million to 90 million Americans and employers better get ready.

Companies that don't have a communicable disease policy could face a multitude of challenges, from operations to human resources, warns the San Francisco-based employment and labor law firm Littler Mendelson PC.

"From an employer's standpoint, in the event of a bird flu pandemic, having an up-to-date communicable illness policy is critical," said Michael E. Brewer, a shareholder in the firm's Walnut Creek office.

The avian flu, a contagious disease that infects birds and some mammals, was first transferred to humans in 1997 in Hong Kong, killing at least six people. By 2004, the flu had evolved and spread beyond Southeast Asia and China into Central Asia and Europe, according to a December 2005 Congressional Budget Office report.

Brewer noted a slight uptick in interest in such policies among companies since news of the avian flu broke.

Fifty-nine percent of respondents to a November 2005 survey by the San Diego-based nonprofit organization Disability Management Employer Coalition Inc. said they were discussing how they would handle a potential outbreak. But more than one-third of them, 34.4 percent, were waiting for additional information on the threat from the Centers for Disease Control.

Brewer says there are three areas of concern for employers: compensation, leave, benefits and labor relations issues; Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSHA) concerns; and medical privacy rights.

If as many as 40 percent of a company's work force is struck with such an ailment, employers must be prepared to adjust benefit plans accordingly. That could include increasing sick leave or using contract employees or retirees to replace sick workers.

In terms of OSHA, a company could be cited if an infected employee comes to work and spreads the virus. Unless an employer has a policy in place to deal with the problem, it also may face workers' compensation claims.

Medical privacy issues also could prove troublesome, Brewer said. He advises employers to have a clear understanding about what illnesses and exposure risks need to be disclosed.

But, unlike mandatory sexual harassment training recently required by the state, there is no clear directive as to what should be included in such a policy.

Emeryville-based biotechnology company Chiron Corp., with more than 5,000 employees at offices throughout the world, is uniquely prepared for an outbreak - it produces the avian flu vaccine.

"If there were something that were shutting down companies, of course it is vital that our company continues to run and produce vaccine," said Chiron spokeswoman Alison Marquiss.

The company does not have a plan in place specific to an avian flu outbreak, but it is covered in Chiron's emergency preparedness plan, which encompasses earthquakes, terrorism and industrial accidents.
 
=




<B><center>Tests show another child in Turkey has bird flu

<font size=+1 color=red>Latest case brings total to 21, killing four in European country</font>

January 17 2006
<A href="http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10890975/">msnbc.msn.com</a></center>
ANKARA - Another child has tested positive for the deadly bird flu virus which has already killed four children in Turkey, the health ministry said on Tuesday.

The latest case brings the total number of confirmed H5N1 cases among humans in Turkey to 21 over the past two weeks, including the four deaths.</b>

The ministry said the child had tested positive while undergoing checks in the eastern Turkish city of Erzurum. Like the four people who died, the infected child comes from the town of Dogubayazit near the Iranian border.

Samples of the child’s tissue have been sent to a laboratory in London for further tests, the ministry said.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday five patients with H5N1 had recovered and had been discharged from hospital.

Many of the remaining 12 people are reported to be stable, but doctors said on Tuesday the condition of Muhammet Ozcan, the five-year-old brother of a girl who died on Sunday, was serious.

“He (Muhammet) is in intensive care and his treatment is continuing with him attached to respiratory equipment. I cannot say he is critical but he is serious,” Huseyin Avni Sahin, chief doctor at Van hospital in eastern Turkey, told Reuters.

The four dead Turkish children are the first human bird flu fatalities outside China and Southeast Asia since the deadly virus re-emerged in late 2003. INTERACTIVE





But as experts puzzle over the rise of bird flu cases in Turkey, the country that’s been Ground Zero for the frightening virus is enjoying a quiet victory: Vietnam hasn’t seen any new cases in people since November and no new poultry outbreaks have been reported in the past month.

The relief felt in Vietnam offers comfort despite the flu’s worrying appearance in Turkey. So far, the virus has not mutated to a form that spreads easily between people. The Turkish cases are still being investigated, but experts say it appears that all of people involved were in close contact with birds. There is no hard evidence pointing to any direct human-to-human infection.

Health experts also say the latest human infections in Eastern Europe were not unexpected.

“We’ve seen it expanding in the last two years and so to have it cause human cases in countries outside of Asia is not surprising,” said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, a flu expert at the World Health Organization in Geneva. Still, he cautioned, “we’re all sort of holding onto the seat of our pants.”

Virus keeps 'surprising us'
About 120 million birds were vaccinated in Vietnam, where the bulk of human deaths have occurred. Since early October, nearly 4 million birds died or were slaughtered as 24 provinces battled outbreaks. All those areas have since gone at least 21 days with no new flare-ups, the time required to consider an outbreak contained. No new human cases have been reported since Nov. 14, according to the Health Ministry Web site.

Although the virus is now endemic in Vietnam, the communist country has taken aggressive steps to try to slow the spread, including regulating the transport of poultry and products and ridding large urban centers of live birds. High-level government officials have also taken a strong role in working to raise awareness about the disease.

China also embarked on an ambitious poultry vaccination program, but sporadic outbreaks have continued in birds and the WHO confirmed two new human deaths last week. WHO also confirmed another death in Indonesia on Saturday.

In Turkey, officials were scurrying to slaughter poultry in affected areas where at least 20 people have tested positive for the H5N1 virus this month. So far, the virus has killed 77 people in east Asia since it re-emerged in late 2003, according to the WHO. In addition Turkey has reported four deaths, all children, but the WHO has only confirmed two.

The virus itself continues to baffle experts, but they are slowly learning more about it.

A recent study suggested it is not nearly as deadly as thought and has probably infected far more people who became mildly ill and recovered. The research was only circumstantial and scientists are calling for blood tests to get a better handle on how many people may actually have been infected with bird flu without needing hospitalization.

WHO is hoping to take blood samples and throat swabs of villagers in Turkey where the disease has shown up.

The official count of cases by WHO suggests that half those infected die, but many experts now believe that only the most serious cases have been noticed and that many people become ill without seeing a doctor.

Dr. Hitoshi Oshitani, a communicable disease control and response consultant for WHO, said researchers have much to learn about the ever-changing virus.

“We still have many unanswered questions regarding this virus,” he said. “This H5N1 virus keeps surprising us.”
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Children Seen At Risk For Turkey Bird Flu</font>

UPDATED: 2:05 pm EST January 17, 2006
<A href="http://www.wral.com/aphealthandwellnewsnews/6184847/detail.html">www.WRAL.com</a></center>
ANKARA, Turkey -- One victim is a 5-year-old boy who fell critically ill after killing a duck for New Year's dinner. Another is his 12-year-old sister, who died last weekend. Three were siblings who succumbed in rapid succession, leaving their grieving parents with just one surviving child.</b>

Just as in East and Southeast Asia, where at least 77 people have died of bird flu since 2003, children appear to be particularly susceptible to the lethal H5N1 strain _ if only because they are more likely to touch or play with diseased birds.

"So far it looks like the same pattern," World Health Organization spokeswoman Maria Cheng told The Associated Press Tuesday.

Cheng said the U.N. health agency did not yet have figures for the number of children who have contracted H5N1 worldwide and declined to offer an estimate. But in Turkey, WHO had a clearer picture: All but two of the 21 confirmed human cases, it said, have involved children and teens aged 4 to 18.

Turkey's Health Ministry said Tuesday that preliminary tests had detected the deadly strain in yet another child, who was hospitalized Jan. 12 in the eastern city of Erzurum. It said the 4 1/2-year-old, whose gender was not immediately released, came from Dogubayazit _ the hometown of all four of the children who so far have died.

Officials said samples from the child, who was in intensive care, were being sent to a WHO laboratory in Britain for independent confirmation.

Experts fear the virus could mutate into a form spread easily among humans, triggering a pandemic capable of killing millions. The WHO has stressed it has no evidence of person-to-person infection in Turkey, and another agency spokeswoman, Cristiana Salvi, said the mortality rate in Turkey was 20 percent _ substantially lower than the 58 percent fatality rate that had been seen in Asia.

Salvi cited early detection and treatment as the likely explanation, but cautioned: "There could be other factors which we are investigating, as a lot of cases are still in the hospital. We need to know how the cases progress."

Health authorities noted that chickens, geese and turkeys often run free in yards where children play, and that even if youngsters don't touch the birds, they can become infected through contact with contaminated bird droppings.

"I appeal to citizens: Please do not get into close contact with your fowl, and especially keep your children away," Health Minister Recep Akdag said Tuesday in an address to parliament.

Doctors in the eastern city of Van were closely monitoring a 5-year-old boy _ also from Dogubayazit, near the border with Iran _ who was reported in critical condition after contracting H5N1 by killing a duck for dinner on Jan. 1.

The boy, Muhammet Ozcan, was being treated for an infection spreading in his lungs and was receiving oxygen, the Anatolia news agency quoted the hospital's chief physician, Dr. Huseyin Avni Sahin, as saying. His sister, Fatma, died Sunday after being rushed to the hospital bleeding from her mouth. The two had slaughtered the duck together and became ill three days later, WHO said.

A team of U.S. influenza experts met Tuesday with WHO and Turkish health officials in the capital, Ankara, and planned to decide later whether to travel to other afflicted areas. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control also sent experts to Turkey to help combat the disease.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged Turks to be "careful and cool-headed" and reassured the nation that everything was being done to contain the crisis.

Later Tuesday, Erdogan met with Zeki Kocyigit, the father of the three siblings who died, and promised to pay for the education of their only surviving child, 6-year-old Hasan Ali. He said the family had decided to move to Ankara.

With Turks complaining of symptoms still checking into hospitals, there were concerns the virus might still be spreading to people despite the precautionary slaughter of nearly 1 million domestic fowl.

Among those getting treatment were three children with bird flu symptoms in Istanbul, where Europe and Asia meet at the Bosporus Strait. Officials were waiting to see if tests confirmed that they, too, were infected with H5N1, which would bring the virus in humans right to Europe's doorstep.
 
=





<B><font size==1 color=green><center>Two Cases of People Infected with Bird Flu Registered in Northern Cyprus</font>

16 January 2006 | 15:09
FOCUS News Agency
<A href="http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?catid=132&newsid=80830&ch=0&datte=2006-01-16">www.focus-fen.net</a></center>
Nicosia. Two supposed cases of people infected with the bird flu have been registered in Northern Cyprus, Cyprus CNA news agency reports citing Northern Cyprus newspapers.</b>

According to the publications the authorities of the acknowledged only in Ankara Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus have been trying to conceal the fact.

A girl with bird flu symptoms has been admitted into hospital in the Turkish part of Nicosia. There is also information about a soldier infected with the bird flu virus.
According to some publications in Ortam newspaper the doctors are waiting for results from sample analyses that are being made in Ankara.

The newspaper notes that the Northern Cyprus Ministry of Healthcare has not made any statement on the case.

According to a publication in Africa newspaper the import of foreign poultry from Turkey is permitted in the northern part of the island and at the same time the import of poultry from the Republic of Cyprus is forbidden.
 
=



<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>WHO experts say Asia still most at risk for bird flu</font>

Published: Tuesday, January 17, 2006
<A href="http://www.saukvalley.com/news/285197347715225.bsp">www.saukvalley.com</a></center>
HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — As experts puzzle over the rise of bird flu cases in Turkey, the country that's been Ground Zero for the frightening virus is enjoying a quiet victory: Vietnam hasn't seen any new cases in people since November and no new poultry outbreaks have been reported in the past month. </b>

The relief felt in Vietnam offers comfort despite the flu's worrying appearance in Turkey. So far, the virus has not mutated to a form that spreads easily between people. The Turkish cases are still being investigated, but experts say it appears that all of people involved were in close contact with birds. There is no hard evidence pointing to any direct human-to-human infection.

Health experts also say the latest human infections in Eastern Europe were not unexpected.

"We've seen it expanding in the last two years and so to have it cause human cases in countries outside of Asia is not surprising," Dr. Keiji Fukuda, a flu expert at the World Health Organization in Geneva., said. Still, he cautioned, "we're all sort of holding onto the seat of our pants."

As for Vietnam, Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO's regional director for the Western Pacific, said an ambitious mass poultry vaccination program last fall may have helped slow outbreaks this winter, although there is no scientific evidence to that effect.

Omi also warned the country must still get past the Lunar New Year late this month when the transport of people and poultry is at its highest.


Click for larger view.
"Vietnam is very excited, of course it's too early for us to make any conclusions to say that in Vietnam the situation is under control," Omi said. "But ... this rather silent period may indicate, partly, that their commitment paid off."

About 120 million birds were vaccinated in Vietnam, where the bulk of human deaths have occurred. Since early October, nearly 4 million birds died or were slaughtered as 24 provinces battled outbreaks. All those areas have since gone at least 21 days with no new flare-ups, the time required to consider an outbreak contained. No new human cases have been reported since Nov. 14, according to the Health Ministry Web site.

Although the virus is now endemic in Vietnam, the communist country has taken aggressive steps to try to slow the spread, including regulating the transport of poultry and products and ridding large urban centers of live birds. High-level government officials have also taken a strong role in working to raise awareness about the disease.

China also embarked on an ambitious poultry vaccination program, but sporadic outbreaks have continued in birds and the WHO confirmed two new human deaths last week. WHO also confirmed another death in Indonesia on Saturday.

In Turkey, officials were scurrying to slaughter poultry in affected areas where at least 20 people have tested positive for the H5N1 virus this month. So far, the virus has killed 77 people in east Asia since it re-emerged in late 2003, according to the WHO. In addition Turkey has reported four deaths, all children, but the WHO has only confirmed two.

The virus itself continues to baffle experts, but they are slowly learning more about it.

A recent study suggested it is not nearly as deadly as thought and has probably infected far more people who became mildly ill and recovered. The research was only circumstantial and scientists are calling for blood tests to get a better handle on how many people may actually have been infected with bird flu without needing hospitalization.

WHO is hoping to take blood samples and throat swabs of villagers in Turkey where the disease has shown up.

The official count of cases by WHO suggests that half those infected die, but many experts now believe that only the most serious cases have been noticed and that many people become ill without seeing a doctor.

Dr. Hitoshi Oshitani, a communicable disease control and response consultant for WHO, said researchers have much to learn about the ever-changing virus.

"We still have many unanswered questions regarding this virus," he said. "This H5N1 virus keeps surprising us."

Scientists have been monitoring the virus since it first appeared in Hong Kong in 1997 when it killed six people. It flared up again in late 2003 and spread quickly across Asia, ravaging the region's poultry stocks. It has since killed or led to the slaughter of an estimated 140 million birds.

Meanwhile, preparations for a possible worldwide human flu epidemic continue. More than 20 countries met in Tokyo last week to discuss the importance of formulating rapid response and containment plans to try to stamp out, or at least stall, the emergence of a pandemic flu strain if it surfaces within their borders.

A funding conference is scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday in Beijing to see if international donors will produce the $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion the United Nations and World Bank have said poor countries and international organizations need to fight bird flu and prepare for a potential flu pandemic. So far, about $1 billion has been firmly committed.
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
More deaths in Turkey and Indonesia from bird flu
Disease/Infection News
Published: Tuesday, 17-Jan-2006​

The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed Turkish health officials tests that show a fourth person, a young girl, has died from the H5N1 virus.

Indonesia also suspects that a 13-year-old girl has died of bird flu; two of the girl's siblings are also sick, but the WHO has yet to confirm this.

To date Indonesia has reported 12 deaths from bird flu.

The brother of the Turkish girl is in a critical condition, and has also tested positive for the H5N1 virus.

Meanwhile authorities in Turkey continue the slaughter of thousands of birds in an attempt to contain the outbreak.

Turkish authorities have culled 932,000 birds over the past two weeks to try to contain the crisis.

The Agriculture Ministry had imposed a nationwide ban on the transit of poultry.

According to the WHO the young girl who died came from the same eastern town of Dogubayazit, where three other children died from the virus earlier this month.

All were apparently infected in late December or early January.

Until these deaths human victims of the virus had all been in Asia and it demonstrates quite clearly that the lethal H5N1 strain has reached the gateway to Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

Turkish authorities say they have had a total of 20 human cases, including the four deaths, in two weeks.

The virus has claimed at least 79 lives since 2003 and has infected some 150 others.

Nevertheless the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization FAO maintains that Turkey can still prevent bird flu from becoming endemic among its bird population.

Juan Lubroth, senior FAO animal health officer, says there is still time to prevent the virus spreading if the Turkish veterinary services have access to enough resources.

Bird flu has been found in wild birds and poultry over a third of Turkey's territory, hitting villages from Istanbul at Europe's gates to Van near the Iranian and Iraqi borders.

The FAO has previously expressed fears that the virus could gain a foothold in neighboring countries such as Georgia, Iran, Syria and Armenia.

The virus is already endemic across parts of Asia and scientists have long feared the H5N1 strain could mutate from a disease that affects mainly birds to one that can pass easily between people, leading to a human pandemic.

At a donor conference this week the senior U.N. coordinator for avian and human influenza will push for money to be pledged to fight the spread of the virus.

The World Bank aims to raise $1.2 billion at the conference in Beijing, but David Nabarro said he would like to see the world investing $1.5 billion.

Guenael Rodier, head of the WHO mission in Turkey, says more human cases are to be expected before the virus in birds has completely disappeared, but he believes the tally it is going down daily.

Elsewhere, an Israeli hospital tested a Palestinian for the bird flu virus on Monday after his chickens died and he became sick.

Greece is urging its citizens to avoid unnecessary travel to Turkey, but as yet has not closed its borders.

Iran has also culled tens of thousands of birds and has closed its border with Turkey to day trippers and has banned the import of live birds and poultry products from Turkey.

While Turkish financial markets shrugged off the crisis as trading resumed after a long religious holiday, fears remain that the outbreak will significantly damage Turkey's $20 billion tourism industry.

http://www.news-medical.net/print_article.asp?id=15414

:vik:
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Follow da money....

Now here is an article to make ya ponder contributing factors in the economic impact of Avian Flu...

US bird flu outbreak could cost insurers $133 bln
Tue Jan 17, 2006 8:13 PM GMT​

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A U.S. avian flu pandemic on the scale of one that took place in 1918 could take the lives of an estimated 1.9 million people and cost the life insurance industry $133 billion in extra death claims, according to a study released on Tuesday.

A moderate influenza outbreak, based on similar events in 1957 and 1968, could cause 209,000 deaths, according to a report released by the Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.), which cites data from U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. That compares with a typical year when 36,000 Americans die from the flu.

The moderate outbreak scenario could cost the life insurance industry $31 billion in extra death claims, the I.I.I. said.

Companies affected by an outbreak would include the largest U.S. life insurers as measured by revenues such as MetLife Inc., Prudential Financial Inc. and New York Life Insurance.

Some insurers have been preparing investors for potential bird flu outcomes.

For example, the world's largest insurance company by market value and a major U.S. life insurer, American International Group Inc. said in its last quarterly earnings report that "an outbreak of a pandemic disease, such as the Avian Influenza A Virus (H5N1), could adversely affect AIG's business and operating results..."

Using the HHS "severe" forecast of 1.9 million deaths, the I.I.I. estimates death claims from the flu would be $54 billion for group life insurance policies and $79 billion for individual life insurance policies.

For a moderate pandemic, estimated costs are $11 billion for group life insurance and $20 billion for individual life insurance, for a total of $31 billion.

If the next influenza pandemic follows the mortality pattern of the 1918 outbreak, with about one-half of the deaths in the 18 to 35 age range, many who die would be covered by both group and individual life insurance.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/new...2763_RTRIDST_0_HEALTH-BIRDFLU-INSURERS-DC.XML

:vik:
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
H3N2, circulating in the United States this year has defeated two common anti-virals!

More Bad Flu News
By Dan Olmsted
UPI Senior Editor
Ankora (UPI) Jan 16, 2006​

Avian flu has claimed a fourth human victim in Turkey, while in the United States the regular old flu has proven resistant to two drugs.

A 12-year-old girl named Fatma Ozcan who died Sunday tested positive for bird flu, Turkish authorities said. She originally tested negative, but after the illness was found in her brother a new test confirmed the presence of the lethal H5N1 strain.

Turkey has become the epicenter of the bird flu's breakout from Southeast Asia, and Turkish officials along with World Health Organization experts have been racing to contain it. There is still no evidence of human-to-human spread, which could set off a worldwide pandemic killing millions.

The more prosaic strain of human influenza circulating in the United States this year has now defeated two common anti-virals, amantadine and rimantadine, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced. As a result, doctors shouldn't prescribe them against the influenza A (H3N2) strain circulating this year.

"This is certainly unexpected news as we now have to remove a few tools from our tool box that we use to combat influenza," said CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding. "Thankfully we still have antivirals available that work, but this new development serves as a reminder of the importance of getting people vaccinated to prevent them from getting influenza in the first place."

The CDC's alternate recommendations for the rest of this year's flu season are Tamiflu and Relenza. Eighteen states are reporting widespread or regional outbreaks, the CDC said.

In Britain, environmental officials Monday confirmed a duck shot in Scotland did not have the lethal H5N1 strain, according to The Scotsman. The duck was infected with the H6N2 strain of bird flu, which does not infect humans, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said.

http://www.terradaily.com/news/More_Bad_Flu_News.html

:vik:
 

Hammer

Veteran Member
How many in Turkey are better

Just wondering. There are now 21 confirmed BF cases in TUrkey with 4 dead. What is the status of the other 17? Are they all in hospital fighting for their lives? All better now? How many even needed hospitalization? This is important to see whether the BF in Turkey is still as bad as what they have been getting in the East.

Hammer
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
Seabird said:
The coming months are a concern, as the Southern Hemisphere enters it's winter season (while we play with hurricanes in the States). But this bug will get to continue it's mutation through their cold and flu season, giving it an endless opportunity. Not good.

But I do wish to say to all of the health care workers on this board: be wary of the germs in your hospitals. I went to visit one of my employees who was in a severe car accident Friday night. She was in the Surgical ICU, where everything was scrubbed and sterile around her. All I did was put my hand on the rail at the end of her bed. That's all. I went home and not even seven hours later, I was sick as a dog. I called the hospital to see if my employee needed anything the next day, and the nurse said that a wicked virus was going around the place.

I run preschools, and no bug travels that fast. If something really deadly like BF comes to your hospital, there would be little chance of escaping it. It makes me think the virus' are truly becoming resistant to antibacterial cleaners. Pretty scary.


Believe it or not Seabird...the ICU is notorious for festering of nasty bugs. I've seen many secondary infections in individuals in ICU. You're right though, in the healthcare field we're constantly dodging nasty buggers, we just have to remain diligent in our handwashing and contact precautions when they are warranted.
 

JPD

Inactive
Are U.S. Employers Prepared for Bird Flu?

http://hr.blr.com/display.cfm/id/17691

Last month, the Congressional Budget Office projected that 90 million Americans could fall ill from avian influenza (widely known as 'bird' flu, since it is transmitted from birds to humans), and within a matter of days, more than a third of the nation's workforce would be calling in sick, if it reached a pandemic in the United States.

The Charlotte Observer ( North Carolina ) recently laid out the 'worst-case scenario' for employers who don't have communicable disease policies in place. Such employers might face:

Collective-bargaining breeches if employers hire certain types of temporary employees or rehire retirees.

Overtime violations in the event companies require a short staff to work extra hours.

OSHA violations should employees be exposed to the disease at work.
Privacy and discrimination claims should employers inappropriately request employees to disclose what sort of illness they have.

The disease has killed more than 70 people to date in Southeast Asia, and at least four in Turkey , where infected birds recently were discovered, the Observer reports. While the disease is transmitted from birds to humans, it is feared the disease may be soon be transmittable from human to human. The Centers for Disease Control has reported there would be little immunity to the disease if it became communicable between humans.

The Observer interviewed a number of employers in Charlotte who reported, for the most part, that they had contingency plans or disaster preparedness plans in place, but none specific to avian flu policy--at least not as of yet. One company with operations in the Carolinas , London-based HSBC Holdings, recently announced that it was preparing for operating with less than half of its staff if there's a bird flu pandemic, the newspaper reports.

Lynn Daniel, management consultant at The Daniel Group in Charlotte , told the Observer that in addition to curtailing travel (particularly to places where there is an outbreak) employers should have certain contingencies in place, such as:
Telecommuting -- working from home reduces risk of exposure and transmission of communicable illness.

A wellness program and online and print information that reinforces healthy lifestyle choices.

Budget alternative or extended shifts, where employees work 10-hour days.
 

Seabird

Veteran Member
Fuzzychick said:
Believe it or not Seabird...the ICU is notorious for festering of nasty bugs. I've seen many secondary infections in individuals in ICU. You're right though, in the healthcare field we're constantly dodging nasty buggers, we just have to remain diligent in our handwashing and contact precautions when they are warranted.


Fuzzychick, all I can say is take care of yourself.
 
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