ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
The U.S. doesn't want war (We, The People® ARE "the U.S.").

It is the international communist deep state, which has infiltrated the U.S. and other world governments, that wants war.


intothegoodnight
The basic problem in all of this is that the “leaders” always think of themselves as “the nation”, not the people. The leaders state what their policy or action is or will be, and the press reports that ”the US “ threatens Russia, of “the US” supports the global climate initiative. My individual portion Of and contribution into “the US“ feels mighty darned tiny, microscopic actually, insignificant, abysmally unimportant. In fact, I believe that our voicing our opinions on tb2k is the only platform where we/I actually influences ANYONE at all, Excluding, of course, our prayers to Almighty God.
 

jward

passin' thru
US spy planes appear to be monitoring a Russian enclave in Europe, possibly looking for signs of nuclear weapons activity
Charles R. Davis
5-6 minutes

In recent weeks, flight-tracking sites have spotted US surveillance flights near Kaliningrad.
Kaliningrad is a Russian territory on the Baltic sea, separated from mainland Russia by Lithuania.
In 2018, Russia conducted a "major renovation" of a nuclear weapons site there, an expert said.

The US military appears to be stepping up aerial surveillance of a Russian territory in Europe, potentially signalling concern that the Kremlin could decide to deploy or even use nuclear weapons in Ukraine as Russian leaders have warned.

On Wednesday, a US electronic surveillance plane, the Boeing RC-135, departed from a base in the United Kingdom and circled around Kaliningrad, a Russian territory along the Baltic Sea — sharing no land border with the mainland — that was annexed after World War II, according to a flight tracking website. It was at least the third such flight in the past week.

Home to nearly 500,000 people, it is sometimes referred to as Russia's "unsinkable aircraft carrier" because it is wedged between Poland and Lithuania, essentially providing the Kremlin a forward operating base within NATO territory.

In 2018, Russia carried out a "major renovation" of an active nuclear weapons storage facility in Kaliningrad some 50 kilometers from Poland, according to Hans Kristensen, a nuclear arms expert at the Federation of American Scientists. The facility, he wrote at the time, could function "as a forward storage site that would be supplied with warheads from central storage sites in a crisis."

In April, the Russian military announced that its Baltic Fleet in the Kaliningrad region conducted a "simulated missile strike exercise" using its "Iskander operational and tactical missile complexes." Iskander ballistic missiles can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.

The US Air Force's European command did not immediately respond to a request for comment. According to a military fact sheet, the RC-135V/W provides "real time on-scene intelligence collection, analysis and dissemination capabilities," with its crew — as many as 30 people — able to "detect, identify and geolocate signals throughout the electromagnetic spectrum."

Aram Shabanian, an expert on open-source intelligence gathering at the New Lines Institute in Washington, DC, said the flights around Kaliningrad are somewhat unusual but not "groundbreaking or alarming in an of itself." What they suggest, he told Insider, is that there is "an increased interest in Russian military movements by high-level decision makers in the United States."

"This comes at a time when we are, as far as I can ascertain, at the closest point to nuclear war since 1983," he added, referencing an incident where a Soviet early-warning radar system falsely reported an incoming US nuclear attack.

Politico reported this week that the US and its allies are increasingly concerned, noting that Western intelligence agencies "are stepping up efforts to detect any Russian military moves or communications that might signal that Vladimir Putin has ordered the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine," citing five current and former US officials.

Since ordering the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian leader has repeatedly hinted that he could use nuclear weapons, including in a September 21 speech announcing a military draft in which he warned that such threats are "not a bluff."

"f the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people," Putin said. Days later, Russian occupying forces held a sham referendum in eastern Ukraine to justify annexing the territory — and extending the definition of an attack on Russia to Ukrainian forces reclaiming land that has been conquered since the start of the war.

Speaking to CNN, former CIA officer Robert Baer warned that Putin, fearing for the future of his regime following major setbacks in Ukraine, could be tempted to do the previously unthinkable.

"The chances of his using nuclear weapons — at least tactical nuclear weapons — is going up by the day," Baer said.
 

DuckandCover

Proud Sheeple
And a motive for the nasty war of all nasty wars??? Gee, let me think a minute. Oh! Elections are coming soon, they need a reason for a full scale war to cancel them.

I've been hearing that excuses are going to be found for cancelling the upcoming elections for the last 30 years or more. Many election cycles and the alarm is always sounded by whichever party is not in control at the present time. In short, my money is against anyone cancelling the upcoming elections. I guess we will see one way or another.
 
The basic problem in all of this is that the “leaders” always think of themselves as “the nation”, not the people. The leaders state what their policy or action is or will be, and the press reports that ”the US “ threatens Russia, of “the US” supports the global climate initiative. My individual portion Of and contribution into “the US“ feels mighty darned tiny, microscopic actually, insignificant, abysmally unimportant. In fact, I believe that our voicing our opinions on tb2k is the only platform where we/I actually influences ANYONE at all, Excluding, of course, our prayers to Almighty God.
What you are describing is our out-of-control fascist communist puppeteers at work - and not what our Constitutional Republic is meant to represent, nor how it is supposed to operate, according to the Founding Fathers.


intothegoodnight
 
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I've been hearing that excuses are going to be found for cancelling the upcoming elections for the last 30 years or more. Many election cycles and the alarm is always sounded by whichever party is not in control at the present time. In short, my money is against anyone cancelling the upcoming elections. I guess we will see one way or another.
I dunno - "they" effectively "cancelled" the 2020 national elections, de facto.


intothegoodnight
 

jward

passin' thru
O no, not me babe, I want a front row seat- been working on my huge red arrow on poster board, and pretty pillows for my lounge chair
 

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
I've been hearing that excuses are going to be found for cancelling the upcoming elections for the last 30 years or more. Many election cycles and the alarm is always sounded by whichever party is not in control at the present time. In short, my money is against anyone cancelling the upcoming elections. I guess we will see one way or another.
They used the “pandemic“ as an excuse to keep everyone hunkered down and afraid to go out and using “mail-in” voting instead. A huge way to twist the vote. Air raid fears would lead to the same situation.
 

jward

passin' thru
Defence officials meet to discuss ramping up weapons production for Ukraine
3-4 minutes

BRUSSELS - Defence officials from more than 40 countries supplying weapons to Ukraine will meet Wednesday to talk about how many more long-range missile systems and air defences will be necessary to turn the tide of the war - and how long it could take to manufacture them.

Meetings this week of what the Pentagon calls "national armament directors", held at the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, are expected to focus on ramping up weapons production, not only for Ukraine, but also to meet longer-term demands for militaries around the world that want Nato-compatible munitions.

The talks are led by the United States, which has sent more than US$15 billion (S$22 billion) of military aid to defend Ukraine, and include allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

"We need to keep working together as Nato allies and with industry to replenish our munitions stocks and provide Ukraine with the support it needs, for as long as Ukraine needs it," Jens Stoltenberg, the military alliance's secretary-general, told the armament directors at an initial gathering on Tuesday.

They are meeting as Russian President Vladimir Putin mobilises hundreds of thousands of troops to push ahead with a war that began in February and shows no signs of abating.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked the United States to equip him with long-range missiles that can fly 190 miles (about 305km) and reach into Russian territory. But the White House has been reluctant to send such weapons to Ukraine because doing so might provoke Putin into escalating the conflict.

Final decisions about what weapons Ukraine might next receive are unlikely to be made at the meetings, said one senior US official who briefed reporters on the condition that he not be named to outline the agenda before the talks began.

The official did not specify which weapons might next be deployed to Ukraine's arsenal - or whether they would include the long-range Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, a request from Kyiv that the Biden administration has resisted.

The official also cited the need for swift manufacturing of replacement gun barrels for 155mm howitzers, steel casings for artillery shells and ball bearings as priorities for arming Ukraine. He described the discussions in Brussels as an effort among allies to pool resources to produce more of those items quickly.

More broadly, defence officials will look for ways to bind allies by building and sharing weapons systems that can be used by multiple nations against threats for years to come. That would require defence contractors to accelerate production, in part by reducing supply chain bottlenecks, the defence official said.

The meetings are being held under the auspices of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group - a collection of about 50 nations created by the US Defence Department in the months after the Russian invasion. The group brings the top civilian and uniformed military leaders of member nations together for monthly meetings to discuss arming Ukraine.

It has hit a critical juncture: Nato countries must now increase domestic arms production in addition to sending weapons from their stockpiles. NYTIMES
 

jward

passin' thru
Ukraine Situation Report: Another 18 HIMARS Launchers For Ukraine
Dan Parsons


The weapons and equipment in the latest aid package will be bought directly from industry on Ukraine’s behalf under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), meaning they are not yet built and could take some time to reach the battlefield.

Items in the $1.1 billion package include:

18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition
150 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs)
150 Tactical Vehicles to tow weapons
40 trucks and 80 trailers to transport heavy equipment
Two radars for Unmanned Aerial Systems
20 multi-mission radars
Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems
Tactical secure communications systems, surveillance systems, and optics
Explosive ordnance disposal equipment
Body armor and other field equipment
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment

The announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid- and long-term, according to the Pentagon.

“This USAI package underscores the U.S. commitment to continuing to support Ukraine over the long term,” the Pentagon said in a statement. “It represents a multi-year investment in critical capabilities to build the enduring strength of Ukraine’s Armed Forces as it continues to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and territory in the face of Russian aggression.”

The United States has committed $16.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since January 2021. Since 2014, the United States has donated $19 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, of which $16.2 billion was promised or delivered since the beginning of Russia’s invasion on February 24.

HIMARS has undeniably been one of the most impactful weapons the U.S. has donated to Ukraine’s war effort. While the Pentagon cautiously progressed with deliveries at the outset while Ukrainian troops proved they could use the precision weapons effectively, there are now 16 firing precision rockets at Russian positions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov mentioned HIMARS by name when thanking the U.S. government for its latest military assistance.

The wheeled launchers and M270 tracked launchers donated by NATO allies – both of which fire the precision Guided Multiple-Launch Rocket System, or GMLRS, munitions – played a critical opening role in Ukraine’s ongoing dual-pronged offensive in the north around Kharkiv and south around Kherson. Both launch systems also can fire the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has a 190-mile range. The U.S. has so far declined to provide Ukraine with such a long-range missile capable of striking targets well inside Russia.

A systematic campaign using GMLRS to target Russian ammunition storage and logistics capabilities set conditions for Ukraine’s rapid liberation of vast swathes of occupied territory. The War Zone explained how both launcher types, loaded with the M30/31 rockets, would be used as precision-strike weapons and very effective even in relatively small numbers in this piece.

HIMARS has achieved cult status as it obliterated Russian positions in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian media began spreading the news of more inbound HIMARS systems even before the Pentagon announced Wednesday.

Russia has repeatedly claimed to have destroyed some of Ukraine’s HIMARS launchers, going so far as to chalk up the elimination of more weapons than had even been donated. Knowing Russian forces would seek out and target the HIMARS launchers, Ukrainian forces made mock-ups from plywood to compel the enemy into wasting valuable ammunition.

Introducing another 18 HIMARS will more than double the number of them in Ukraine’s arsenal, although the timeline for achieving this is still unknown. Every wheeled launcher can precisely strike targets within a 43-mile radius of its position. As Ukraine pushes consistently eastward along its two axes of advance, its HIMARS can reach further into Russian-occupied territory.

There have been concerns that U.S. ammunition stockpiles are insufficient to keep Ukrainian forces firing GMLRS while leaving enough for the U.S. military in case of major contingency operations.

Before we get to the details of everything else happening in the fight for Ukraine, take a moment to revisit our rolling coverage of the conflict here.
The Latest

In addition to detailing what was in the announced $1.1 billion in USAI funding, a senior U.S. defense official said that Ukraine is consolidating the territorial gains it has made in recent weeks of the seven-month-long war. From the other side of the line, Russia is thought to be increasing strikes against civilian targets.

In the Donetsk region, Ukrainian forces have nearly encircled the city of Lyman, according to pro-Russian media sources. The map below shows Russian forces almost surrounded in and around the city, with Ukrainian troops pushing to close the pincer from the north and south in their rear.

The same push to cut off Russian troops in Lyman is reflected in the U.K. Ministry of Defense intelligence assessment map of the conflict for Sept. 28.

Ukraine has pressed its offensive operations in the north-east of the country over the last few days, the U.K. MoD said in its latest intelligence assessment of the conflict.

“Units are making slow advances on at least two axes east from the line of the Oskil and Siverskyy Donets rivers, where forces had consolidated following their previous advance earlier in the month,” the U.K. MoD said. “Russia is mounting a more substantive defense than previously, likely because the Ukrainian advance now threatens parts of Luhansk Oblast as voting in the referendum on accession to the Russian Federation closes. Heavy fighting also continues in the Kherson region where the Russian force on the right bank of the Dnipro remains vulnerable.”

The specter of nuclear weapons continues to loom larger over the conflict in Ukraine. NATO is clearly taking the threats more seriously than they had been, while it seems that Putin has chosen the troop surge route instead, at least for now.

In Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces continue to put abandoned Russian vehicles and equipment to good use. In the video below, a Ukrainian crew tows a captured Russian Msta-B 152mm howitzer with a captured Russian T-80 main battle tank, according to the Ukrainian MoD.

It appears that was not the only Russian T-80 tank Ukrainian forces were able to capture in working order during their Kharkiv offensive.

More Western-donated vehicles are on their way to Ukraine, including the LAV 6.0 troop carrier recently seen in Germany. The vehicle is part of a $500 million aid package from Canada.

Ukraine still has an insatiable appetite for artillery and has made do with any weapons at its disposal, including an apparent museum piece. A Soviet-era M240 240mm mortar, a type that entered service in 1950, was recently seen in Ukrainian service. While the weapon is not known to be in Ukrainian inventories, one was displayed in a Kyiv museum before the war.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda piled on with other Western leaders in denouncing the referendums Russia recently orchestrated in occupied territories of Ukraine. He called the votes – which unrealistically nearly unanimously favor of Russian annexation – as “desperate attempts by Russia to annex Ukrainian territory.”

Nevertheless, the Russia-installed leaders of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts were flown to Moscow in the wake of the highly suspect votes.

The quality of firearms training for those that are lucky enough to get any is also suspect. The photo below appears to show a Russian shooting skills instructor holding the palm of his right hand over the muzzle of a trainee’s AK pattern rifle. The move is an egregious safety violation even if the weapon is unloaded.

Near Lyman, a Russian vehicle was seen with its turret draped in damaged body armor meant to protect humans. The weathered vests seem to have provided little protection to the vehicle and certainly did no good for whomever they were issued to.

At worst, Russian military leaders are aware that conscripted soldiers have little chance against a hardened Ukrainian military that already has succeeded against Russia's professional soldiers. In at least one instance, Russian officers appear to have stated this fact to a group of recruits, calling them “cannon fodder” and “meat” to be sent into combat, as reported by Russian independent media outlet Meduza.

The War Zone broke the news today that Russia has closed off Sevastopol harbor, home of its Black Sea Fleet, likely in response to the appearance of Ukrainian “suicide” drone boats and other threats as Ukraine ramps up operations around Crimea.

U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante on Wednesday chaired the first meeting of the National Armaments Directors (NADs) from member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) in Brussels, Belgium. He was joined by defense industry leaders and representatives from 45 countries, the European Union, and NATO, according to a statement from the Defense Department.

“The forum enabled frank and open dialogue about defense industrial base challenges and opportunities to increase production of capabilities critical to Ukraine’s long-term defense,” according to DoD spokesperson Jessica Maxwell.

“The U.S. delegation outlined the Department’s analytical approach to identifying supply-chain constraints for major components and sub-components and plans to increase production of ground-based long-range fires, air defense systems, air-to-ground munitions, and other capabilities. Nearly 20 international partners briefed similar efforts to strengthen and expand their nations’ industrial base to accelerate production, spurring productive dialogue on areas for multi-national coordination.”

We will continue to update this post until we state otherwise.

Contact the author: Dan@thewarzone.com
 

jward

passin' thru

raven

TB Fanatic
Where is said event? There are some curious as to a location.
small town (pop 3000) in Ok.
It is not that it is particularly special. It is not that it is cheap.
I'm sure you have Prime Rib near you.

We went a few weeks ago for the first time and
I watched the carver bring out the whole prime rib and watched as he carved.
It is unusual to find this kind of restaurant in this small of a town.
 

onetimer

Veteran Member
Hopefully this "speaking with one voice against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine" angle is exactly what's going on here but I can't help but think these are heads up conversations on a reality that's going to happen.

Politico: US asks China, India to convince Putin not to use nuclear weapons. The. U.S. officials are urging countries of the Pacific region to put pressure on Putin and communicate to him that the use of nuclear weapons will have a harsh response, Politico reports.

"We'd made the point in a number of conversations with countries in the Indo-Pacific region – ally, partner, or otherwise – of the importance of speaking with one voice against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine," an unnamed senior State Department official told Politico.


View: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1575463918285225985?s=20&t=bsC1VYeY2tR9oBU5rE3Obg
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
So what would you do if your neighbor was taking money from your antagonistic enemy and shelling your friendly neighbors and extended family?
Frankly, I don't think stealing part of my antagonistic neighbor's garage would be the solution.

That being said, you're missing the point. Russia enforces a vote that is miraculously uniform and almost 100% in Russia's favor, so it decides to say that a big chunk of a sovereign country is now part of Russia. You KNOW that the sovereign country is going to disagree and has already shown a propensity to fight for their sovereignty. And the sovereign country has friends to back them up.

You know this, I know this. And by God Putin frikking knows this. All this does is guarantee escalated conflict. That's why this is stupid. The only possible intention is to extend the fighting, or worse, give causus belli for Russia to do more, because they will now claim THEIR sovereignty is being attacked.

And to be fair, to take some of the burden of the future off of Putin's shoulders, nobody is doing much to stop the fighting on any side. This is just more stupid added onto a burning pyre of the stuff.
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
NATO admits Finland & Sweden and, simultaneously, cheers go up and it is recognized that Russia has advanced on NATO.
but when
Russia beings in four states that Ukraine has been at war with for seven years and . . .
Russia is stealing four states, as it stole Crimea. They are now going to be considered part of Russia, by Russia. Understandably, the Ukraine is going to disagree. And they are going to resist violently the attempt by Russia to expand its territory by fiat. There is no other sequence of events that makes logical sense, unless I am missing something. Putin knows this, so it must be intentional.

Finland and Sweden remain sovereign counties within an alliance, with a pledge of defense if attacked, as long as they agree to participate in the defense of other alliance states. That's pretty much it. If the the member states of the alliance do not hold up their end of the bargain, they are subject to expulsion from the alliance. They remain sovereign throughout those conditions, they are not forced to merge with another country,, or anything like that.

Please look at this stuff logically. Remove Zelinsky's assholish nature out of it, and look at things as they are, not how the propaganda is trying to steer us.
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
Putin isn't about to use nuclear weapons. He's not that crazy.
I think it depends on if he truly considers those regions to be Russia. Ukraine isnt going to stop attacking and we arent going to stop providing weapons. And the Russians dont seem like they are going to be able to stop the Ukrainian advances. So what does making those regions part of Russia allow him to do conventionally that he couldnt before? Formally declare war? My fear is he starts running out of conventional options. If even a quarter of the rumors/pics about the poor recruits and equipment is true they have real issues. I dont believe that he is holding his AF back. I suspect it is in very bad shape and he cant afford to risk losing what he has left in the Ukraine. The Nordstream sabotage pushes him further into a corner as he has most likely lost his biggest bargaining chip as well a future income stream. My WAG is it definitely on the table but I dont think he will unless we go after Crimea. Luhansk and Donetsk are pawns for him but Crimea is traditionally Russia. TO hedge that bet I would make sure I get to the Prime Rib buffet right as the doors open because I am just guessing.
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
Russia is stealing four states, as it stole Crimea. They are now going to be considered part of Russia, by Russia. Understandably, the Ukraine is going to disagree. And they are going to resist violently the attempt by Russia to expand its territory by fiat. There is no other sequence of events that makes logical sense, unless I am missing something. Putin knows this, so it must be intentional.

Finland and Sweden remain sovereign counties within an alliance, with a pledge of defense if attacked, as long as they agree to participate in the defense of other alliance states. That's pretty much it. If the the member states of the alliance do not hold up their end of the bargain, they are subject to expulsion from the alliance. They remain sovereign throughout those conditions, they are not forced to merge with another country,, or anything like that.

Please look at this stuff logically. Remove Zelinsky's assholish nature out of it, and look at things as they are, not how the propaganda is trying to steer us.
I dont believe that there is any provision for a member of NATO to be kicked out. They can leave voluntarily.
 

kochevnik

Senior Member
Supposedly - Germany is on the hook for paying for Nord Stream gas until 2030 - even if it does not get delivered.


some other interesting facts :

Ukraine has not imported gas directly from Russia since 2015, but it buys it from Western traders as part of the Russian gas that goes through Ukrainian territory to Europe. In 2021, Ukraine consumed 27.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, with its own production of about 19.8 bcm.

and get this :

Ukraine has tremendous natural resources for meeting domestic oil and gas production needs, with estimates of approximately 900 billion cubic meters of proven reserves of natural gas. In Europe, Ukraine ranks second for gas reserves. Three Ukrainian regions contain hydrocarbons resources: the Dnipro-Donetsk basin, the Carpathian region in western Ukraine, and the Black Sea and Crimea region in the south. The Dnipro-Donetsk basin is a major oil and gas producing region accounting for 90 percent of all current Ukrainian production.

that may be the main reason the Ukrainians are fighting so hard to get these regions back.

and


Ukraine Route May Close

Gazprom said on Sep. 27 that it rejects Naftogaz’ arbitration claim, filed recently over the unpaid volumes of prebooked gas transit. Gazprom believes it should not have to pay for capacity which is technically not available because of Kyiv’s decision to close one of the two entry points on the Russian border in May.

Ukraine closed the Sokhranovka entry point, where Gazprom had booked 32.6 million cubic meters per day, or 30% of the total booked transit capacity under a five-year deal signed in late 2019. Kyiv cited interference of the Russian military in operations at the compressor and metering station and said that Gazprom could send more gas via the remaining Sudzha entry point where Gazprom now ships just around 42 MMcm/d, well below the booked 77 MMcm/d capacity.

Flows could stop completely, as Gazprom said that Naftogaz’ arbitration claim was an “unfriendly” move, which could force the Russian authorities to blacklist the Ukrainian company. As a result, Gazprom won’t be able to fulfill its obligations under the contract with Naftogaz, including making financial transactions, the Russian exporter said in a statement.

Gazprom already stopped gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline in May after Russia imposed sanctions against EuRoPol Gaz, the owner of the Polish section of the pipeline.

If the Ukrainian transit is closed, the only route for Russian gas to Europe will be Turk Stream, which reaches a limited number of European countries in the south but can technically bring part of the gas to the Baumgarten hub in Austria, where it can be available to a wider range of buyers. Turk Stream’s Europe-bound capacity is 15.75 billion cubic meters per year, or some 43 MMcm/d. Last week it shipped an average 37.5 MMcm/d.
 
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