WEATHER Hurricane Ike Daily Thread, Friday/ 9-12-08

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SassyinAZ

Inactive
Boat storage facility on fire at the east end of Galveston Island.

Reporter on the scene saying there are two 500 gallon fuel tanks at the boat storage facility.

Thick black smoke pouring over nearby hospital.

New video showing thick black smoke and flames burning brightly

Nodding, saying they can't get any fire support to it.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Just read that high school is in the center of Galveston 6-8 blocks from the seawall, oh my!

I was going to post earlier that I had read that it was in an area that floods easily any, and the poster couldn't believe they opened it up. But, you have all of these idiots staying and it is a "last resort". Anyone know how many stories that school is? Maybe it has at least 3 floors...??
 

Knell

Deceased
Those people who didn't evacuate, who survive, will be shown on tv screaming and crying because they weren't helped. Or didn't get all the help they wanted, when they wanted it.
 

Calrissian

Membership Revoked
40% of the Galveston population did NOT evacuate! That leaves about 22,000 people there.

Good evening all.
--

That is a shockingly large number of people. I thought, maybe 10% of them would say, but almost half?

Thats crazy. The entire area is going to be cut off and underwater for most of Saturday...if not mostly destroyed.

...and I'm reading that maybe 15,000 or so (conservative guess, since some will still be leaving), will have chosen to stay.

Sigh. Well, its *their choice, all are likely to be in with a real chance of winning a Darwin award later tonight.
--

*I've seen a fair few news feeds of people on the coastline, with children. I'm a bit surprised that those will children are not legally threatened with arrest if they stay against an evac order. Adults can choose to stay, a child has no say.

I saw one mother on the seafront, with 2 young girls, shocking coverage, and it was telling to see the faces of the media...all of them had that look of " :shr: , they are going to die".

A real dramatic night ahead. All those who left...are guaranteed another day to live. Those who remained....well, they might get lucky.
 

SassyinAZ

Inactive
I was going to post earlier that I had read that it was in an area that floods easily any, and the poster couldn't believe they opened it up. But, you have all of these idiots staying and it is a "last resort". Anyone know how many stories that school is? Maybe it has at least 3 floors...??

I'd guess that it's a single floor, I'm going to find the name of it again and see if I can search something up though.
 

SassyinAZ

Inactive
Ball High School in Galveston; shelter of last resort.

2.gif
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KSHV 122152
HLSSHV

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

452 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE IKE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE
VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE BUT
COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...A MAJOR HURRICANE.

TXZ149-152-165>167-130500-
/O.UPG.KSHV.HI.A.0001.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KSHV.HI.W.0001.080913T0500Z-080913T1700Z/
/O.EXT.KSHV.TI.W.0002.080913T0000Z-080913T0500Z/
CHEROKEE-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
452 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
12 PM CDT SATURDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

CHEROKEE...ANGELINA...NACODGOCHES...SABINE...AND SAN AUGUSTINE
COUNTIES IN TEXAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON SATURDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20
INCHES.

...WINDS...

WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...AND HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS OF OVER 74 MPH MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

...INLAND FLOODING...

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH ARKANSAS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 PM.

$$
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
ARZ070-TXZ096-097-108>112-130500-
/O.UPG.KSHV.TI.A.0002.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KSHV.TI.W.0002.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
MILLER-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-
452 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008


...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

NONE.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20
INCHES.

...WINDS...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

...INLAND FLOODING...

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH ARKANSAS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 PM.

$$

LAZ003-004-012-130500-
/O.EXA.KSHV.TI.W.0002.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-BIENVILLE-
452 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

WEBSTER...CLAIBORNE...AND BIENVILLE PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20
INCHES.

...WINDS...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

...INLAND FLOODING...

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH ARKANSAS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 PM.


$$

LAZ001-002-010-011-017>020-022-TXZ124>126-136>138-150-151-153-
130500-
/O.CON.KSHV.TI.W.0002.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
CADDO-BOSSIER-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-
LA SALLE-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-RUSK-PANOLA-
SHELBY-
452 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

NONE.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

NORTHWEST LOUISIANA SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SHREVEPORT TO JENA
LOUISIANA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20
INCHES.

...WINDS...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

...INLAND FLOODING...

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH ARKANSAS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 PM.

$$

03
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Ike closes in on Galveston

Posted by: JeffMasters, 5:10 PM EDT on September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike is hours away from landfall on the upper Texas coast, and is already generating huge storm surges in Texas and Lousiana. Although still of Category 2 strength, Ike remains larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike's Integrated Kinetic Energy has fallen from 149 Terajoules this morning to 124 at 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon. However, this is still larger than the total energy Katrina had at landfall, and Ike's storm surge potential rates a 5.1 on a scale of 1 to 6.

The forecast
Ike is attempting to create a new eyewall, and visible satellite loops and Galveston radar suggest the storm is becoming more organized. However, Ike has only a few more hours over water, and there is not time for the hurricane to intensify more than 5-10 mph before landfall. Ike will not inflict extreme wind damage like Katrina's or Rita's. The big story with Ike will be the storm surge.


Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, storm tides are running 6-8 feet above normal along the central Louisiana coast this afternoon. The nola.com web site is reporting that a 9 foot storm surge affected the Industial Canal in New Orleans. Extensive flooding of low lying towns outside the New Orleans levee system is occurring. Surge overtopped a St. Mary Parish levee near the town of Gordy, and a six-foot-wide breach was reported in a non-federal parish levee near the towns of Caernarvon, Scarsdale, White Ditch and Braithwaite.

The fact that Ike's storm surge has reached such high levels 200-300 miles north of the storm is a very bad omen for the upper Texas and western Louisiana coasts. The latest forecast surge values from NOAA:

Shoreline of Galveston Bay... 15 to 22 feet
Bolivar Peninsula... 17 to 20 feet
Galveston Island... ... 14 to 17 feet
Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass... 8 to 14 feet

I've given the mistaken impression that the Galveston sea wall will save the city from inundation. That is not the case. The wall merely protects the city from a frontal assault by the storm surge and the 20 foot waves likely to be on top of the surge. Ike will flood the city of Galveston. However, the predicted level of surge will be just beneath the sea wall. If the surge exceeds the 17 foot forecast, it will overtop the sea wall and act like a battering ram against the buildings in Galveston. It is also possible that the sea wall will be destroyed along some sections, allowing the ocean direct access to Galveston.

The situation is also grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

Ike's winds in Houston and inland
Winds in the Houston metro area will increase to tropical storm force--39 mph--early this evening, and remain that strong for about 20 hours. Houston will be on the left (weak) side of Ike, and will miss the storm's strongest winds. Nevertheless, winds of Category 1 hurricane force (75-85 mph) will affect the city for about a 4-hour period in the early morning hours of Saturday. People in well-built homes will suffer only minor damage, but mobile homes and homes not build to code will suffer significant damage. The extremely long duration of the hurricane force winds will cause much greater damage than is typical for a hurricane of this strength.

Winds and damage in Houston will be less than was experienced during Hurricane Alicia of 1983. Ike's damage will cover a much wider area and spread farther inland, due to the large size of the storm. During Alicia, Houston Hobby Airport on the south side of the city recorded top winds of 89 mph, gusting to 99 mph. The strongest winds recorded at Houston International Airport, on the north side of the city, were 51 mph, gusting to 78 mph. Winds from Ike will probably reach maximum sustained speeds of 75-80 mph at Houston Hobby, and 65-70 mph at Houston International Airport.

A good guess on what kind of winds inland areas will experience can be had by using the Inland Wind Model developed by NOAA scientists Mark DeMaria and John Kaplan. I think Ike will be a strong Category 2 hurricane moving at about 15 mph at landfall, but the hurricane's strongest winds will penetrate farther inland than is typical due to the huge size of the storm. Thus, I picked a slightly stronger storm with a higher forward speed to base my inland wind estimate on. I expect hurricane force winds of 74 mph will penetrate about 110 miles inland, near the cities of Huntsville and Livingston to the north of Galveston, and not quite reaching Lufkin. We can expect Ike to cause the largest and longest-lived power outage in Texas history, with power knocked out along a 200-mile wide swath in eastern Texas and extreme western Louisiana extending 300 miles inland to I-20. Dallas will be at the fringe of the region of widespread power outages, and should not suffer major power failures.

For more information
I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Links to follow
Galveston, TX weather
Port Arthur, TX weather
Houston, TX weather
Tide gauges along the Gulf Coast
Long-range radar out of Galveston, TX
wundermap of weather stations near Ike
Buoy 42035 22 nm SE of Galveston
I-45 traffic cams (bottom 6 on scroll-down menu are Galveston).

Jeff Masters





Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Ike from the International Space Station. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2.Current tide levels in Galveston. The green line shows the current storm surge, which was 7.5 feet at 4 pm CDT. The water level stopped rising at 2 pm because the tide began going out. When high tide comes back in at 2 am, there will be a sharp rise in the water level. There is a 2 foot difference between high tide and low tide. Image credit: NOAA TIdes and Currents.
 

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Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Ball High School in Galveston; shelter of last resort.

I'm glad that it's not just one story. Looks like it would definitely be above surge levels on upper floors. Hope it's far enough inland to avoid the waves riding on top of the surge. It's got a lot of glass, but better to be higher up that close to the coast.

(I removed the image tag to save bandwidth or whatever it's called)
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Figure 3. Inland penetration of tropical storm and hurricane force winds from a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds moving perpendicular to the Gulf Coast at a forward speed of 17 mph. Image credit: NOAA
 

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Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Governor Riley Declares State of Emergency, Price Gouging Law Goes Into Effect

Posted: Sep 12, 2008 04:58 PM CDT

Updated: Sep 12, 2008 04:58 PM CDT

MONTGOMERY - Governor Bob Riley on Friday afternoon declared a state of emergency for Alabama after he received new information from the U.S. Department of Energy that energy shortages will likely occur in the state due to Hurricane Ike.

The Governor's declaration notes that "disruption of essential utility services, systems and severe energy shortages will likely occur."

Earlier in the day, the Governor's Office noted that an Alabama governor's ability to declare a state of emergency was very limited. By law, an Alabama governor cannot declare a state of emergency unless there has been or there is anticipated to be an attack on the United States, a natural disaster of major proportions impacting Alabama or a public health emergency.

"I believe this new information means a threat to public health is a strong possibility due to the shortage of fuels," said Governor Riley. "I deem it an emergency."

The state law that prohibits "unconscionable pricing" of items for sale or rent goes into effect when the governor has declared a state of emergency.

http://www.wsfa.com/Global/story.asp?S=9000888
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KCRP 122210
HLSCRP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

510 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

.AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE WAS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. BASED UPON THIS PROJECTED TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH WHICH MAKES IKE A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
955 MILLIBARS OR 28.20 INCHES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
CATEGORY THREE STATUS...A MAJOR HURRICANE...BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL.

TXZ233-234-130415-
/O.EXT.KCRP.TI.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080913T2000Z/
GOLIAD-VICTORIA-
510 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR GOLIAD AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS LIVING
IN GOLIAD AND VICTORIA COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN RECOMMENDED FOR VICTORIA COUNTY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 700 PM THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 PM CDT.

$$

GMZ235-255-275-130415-
/O.CON.KCRP.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
510 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN BY THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT O`CONNOR
TO PORT ARANSAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT O`CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL THE NECESSARY
PREPARATIONS. BOATS SHOULD EITHER BE SECURELY FASTENED OR REMOVED
FROM THE WATER ALTOGETHER. ANY LOOSE OBJECTS ON DECK SHOULD BE
STORED IN A SAFE AND SECURE LOCATION. ALL CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO
REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH SATURDAY.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 700 PM THIS EVENING AND 400 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE RUNNING 12 TO 16 FEET
NEARSHORE...16 TO 22 FEET OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 20 TO 30 FEET TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 PM CDT.

$$
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Met. in Houston reports that Ike has been almost stationary for the past hour or so. Strange.

Jarhead
:usm:
 

SassyinAZ

Inactive
I'm glad that it's not just one story. Looks like it would definitely be above surge levels on upper floors. Hope it's far enough inland to avoid the waves riding on top of the surge. It's got a lot of glass, but better to be higher up that close to the coast.

(I removed the image tag to save bandwidth or whatever it's called)

I'm just not feeling as optimistic as you, nana, I'm trying reallyyyyyyyy hard though.

Reporting now that houses in Seabrook with water inside and people trapped.
 

Echo 5

Funniest guy on TB2K
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20-foot surge — a rapid rising of water inundating areas and moving inland — for a large swath of Texas and the Louisiana coasts. Above that, the center predicts “large and dangerous battering waves.” Waves could be 50 feet tall, said hurricane center spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,420783,00.html

:siren:
 

SassyinAZ

Inactive
I'm just not feeling as optimistic as you, nana, I'm trying reallyyyyyyyy hard though.

Reporting now that houses in Seabrook with water inside and people trapped.


Updating: Police are going to try and ferry Seabrook residents to the mainland; cut-off at this time.
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Those fires breaking out sure are suspicious with the chem/petro facilities located around there.........

Power was still on in most of Galveston Island.

Calculated risk which can result in transformer explosions.

Since they declared a mandatory evacuation they should have set a time to turn off the power.

That would preserve infrastructure and reduce fires.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
I'm just not feeling as optimistic as you, nana, I'm trying reallyyyyyyyy hard though.

Reporting now that houses in Seabrook with water inside and people trapped.

Not optimistic. Just picture me clicking the heals of my red shoes together as I type all of the optimistic sounding posts. People get accused of "wishcasting" so I am guilty of "clickcasting".

Besides, every time I hear of something that makes me feel better about this storm, I hear two more things that make me fearful of the worst again, sigh.
 

SassyinAZ

Inactive
The roof has blown off from the Hooters restaurant/bar in Galveston and the pier footings are being loosened by the surf.

hmmmm wondering if I should send Buff a pm, ok not funny.
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 122255
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
600 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT BEARS DOWN ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...RISING WATER LEVELS AND BATTERING WAVES AFFECTING THE AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES
...170 KM...SOUTH OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE IKE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 600 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...93.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WFUS54 KLCH 122255
TORLCH
LAC045-099-101-122330-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0088.080912T2255Z-080912T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

555 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES STEPHENSVILLE...
ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...PATTERSON...MORGAN CITY...BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL POSSIBLE TORNADOS ACROSS ST. MARY AND LOWER ST. MARTIN
PARISHES...WITH THE BEST INDICATION JUST NORTH OF PATTERSON. ALL
WERE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHEASTERN IBERIA PARISH AT 610 PM CDT
RURAL NORTHERN ST. MARY PARISH AT 610 PM CDT
RURAL CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISH AT 610 PM CDT
RURAL NORTHERN IBERIA PARISH AT 620 PM CDT

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 2960 9118 2954 9124 2955 9127 2950 9126
2948 9129 2951 9137 2974 9160 2984 9143
3012 9170 3025 9148 3012 9146 3011 9138
3007 9136 3005 9122 2999 9125 2986 9118
2982 9108 2971 9110 2963 9107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 145DEG 46KT 2981 9137

$$

LANDRENEAU
 

BlueNewton

Membership Revoked
So over 20,000 did NOT evacuate? I just don't get it. Sounds like a death wish to me. I pray there are no little children that must depend on the good sense of their parents left here. :shk:

Sadly this group includes multiple immediate family members of mine and their families. Geez. What were they thinking? I just got an email from one. They got out and wore themselves out trying to convince the others to leave. Folks just get hurricane fatigue after so many years. I am clearly extremely concerned. I have seen the photos of beach neighborhoods already underwater, about one mile down the island from where I have family. The seawall street is underwater. The rest of the island is LOWER than the seawall. The island is narrow and long. The water could wash right over the width of it. I am very concerned. I hope they all had enough sense to get to the hospital--a common refuge during severe hurricanes.
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1245 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS


EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SLIDELL
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 897. WATCH NUMBER 897 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1245 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION REVOLVING AROUND HURRICANE IKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND MAINTAIN THREAT OF ROTATION/ISOLATED
TORNADOES...WITH THREAT SPREADING SLOWLY WWD INTO MORE OF SWRN LA
THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 11040.


...EVANS


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 121740
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

TORNADO WATCH 898 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-005-007-009-011-019-023-033-037-039-045-047-051-053-
055-057-063-071-075-077-079-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-
105-109-113-115-117-121-125-130300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0898.080912T1745Z-080913T0300Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALCASIEU CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE IBERIA
IBERVILLE JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE
RAPIDES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE
VERMILION VERNON WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA


MSC005-113-147-157-130300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0898.080912T1745Z-080913T0300Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AMITE PIKE WALTHALL
WILKINSON


GMZ450-452-455-530-550-130300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0898.080912T1745Z-080913T0300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...
 

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SassyinAZ

Inactive
Fox reporting 90k did not evacuate the coastal areas, 10k in Galveston.

And Texas, after Rita, only issued mandatory evacuations in surge areas.
 

SassyinAZ

Inactive
Sadly this group includes multiple immediate family members of mine and their families. Geez. What were they thinking? I just got an email from one. They got out and wore themselves out trying to convince the others to leave. Folks just get hurricane fatigue after so many years. I am clearly extremely concerned. I have seen the photos of beach neighborhoods already underwater, about one mile down the island from where I have family. The seawall street is underwater. The rest of the island is LOWER than the seawall. The island is narrow and long. The water could wash right over the width of it. I am very concerned. I hope they all had enough sense to get to the hospital--a common refuge during severe hurricanes.

BlueNewton,

I'm feeling for you but, yes there's always a but, I don't know what is unclear about "certain death" that is hard for peeps to understand.

Is the hospital even up high enough?
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KCRP 122315
HLSCRP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

615 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

.AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES
...170 KM...SOUTH OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR
HURRICANE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

GMZ235-255-275-130515-
/O.CON.KCRP.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
615 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 260 MILES
EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN BY THOSE WITH INTERESTS
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT O`CONNOR TO PORT
ARANSAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT O`CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 260 MILES
EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL THE NECESSARY
PREPARATIONS. BOATS SHOULD EITHER BE SECURELY FASTENED OR REMOVED
FROM THE WATER ALTOGETHER. ANY LOOSE OBJECTS ON DECK SHOULD BE
STORED IN A SAFE AND SECURE LOCATION. ALL CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO
REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH SATURDAY.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 700 PM THIS EVENING AND 400 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE RUNNING 12 TO 16 FEET
NEARSHORE...16 TO 22 FEET OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 20 TO 30 FEET TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 PM CDT.

$$

TXZ245>247-130515-
/O.CON.KCRP.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
615 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 260 MILES
EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS LIVING
IN ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND REFUGIO COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND
REFUGIO COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 260 MILES
EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR CALHOUN COUNTY. EVACUATIONS
SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED THIS MORNING ACROSS CALHOUN COUNTY.
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ALSO EXIST FOR AUSTWELL...BAYSIDE AND
TIVOLI IN REFUGIO COUNTY WITH VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR REFUGIO
AND WOODSBORO. THE MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ARANSAS COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELED WHILE THE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN
LOW LYING FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AND THOSE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS IN
ARANSAS COUNTY REMAINS IN PLACE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDES CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. AS HURRICANE
IKE MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY.

STORM SURGE WILL PRODUCE WATER LEVELS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
MATAGORDA AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EAST FACING SHORES OF CALHOUN COUNTY WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON. WATER LEVEL RISES OF
AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN BAYS FROM SAN ANTONIO BAY TO
ARANSAS BAY.

PREDICTED HIGH TIDE AT PORT O`CONNOR WAS AT 1015 AM CDT TODAY...
HOWEVER WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF IKE TO THE NORTHEAST. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND IKE
BEGIN TO PUSH WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST.

GIVEN THE FORECAST WATER LEVELS DUE TO STORM SURGE...THE
FOLLOWING IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE:

ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF BEACHES AND
BEACH ACCESS ROADS WITH MAJOR DUNE EROSION LIKELY ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS. LARGE SECTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE
FLOODED.

IN CALHOUN COUNTY...FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
WATERFRONT AND IN LOW LYING AREAS OF PORT O`CONNOR. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IN INDIANOLA WILL OCCUR WITH WATER 1 TO 2 FEET DEEP IN
MANY AREAS. ROADS ALONG MATAGORDA BAY BETWEEN MAGNOLIA BEACH AND
INDIANOLA WILL REMAIN FLOODED IN LOW LYING AREAS. THIS INCLUDES
PARTS OF HIGHWAY 316 AND STORES AND BAIT STANDS AT INDIANOLA.

IN ARANSAS COUNTY...LOW LYING AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE
REFUGE WILL BE FLOODED. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF HIGHWAY 35 BETWEEN
ARANSAS PASS AND ROCKPORT IS POSSIBLE.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CALHOUN COUNTY
BY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 700 PM THIS EVENING AND 400 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 PM CDT.

$$
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WFUS54 KLCH 122324
TORLCH
LAC001-039-055-097-099-130000-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0089.080912T2324Z-080913T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

624 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES CARENCRO...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUNSET TO 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CARENCRO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
NORTH OF CHURCH POINT TO BREAUX BRIDGE...MOVING NORTH AT 18 MPH.

* TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SUNSET BY 635 PM CDT...
GRAND COTEAU BY 640 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3071 9236 3042 9194 3020 9193 3055 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 171DEG 15KT 3054 9227 3028 9195

$$

06
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KLIX 122325
HLSLIX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

625 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT BEARS DOWN ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND THE PARISHES SURROUNDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
LAKE MAUREPAS...

.AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES
SOUTH OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE IKE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE
IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE
AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR
HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

LAZ056-065-066-132330-
/O.CON.KLIX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ASSUMPTION-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
625 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES
SOUTH OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE IKE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE
IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE
AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR
HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPAREDNESS MEASURES SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED BY THIS
TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND AT TIMES SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH TIDES AND SALT WATER INUNDATION IS TAKING PLACE OUTSIDE THE
HURRICANE LEVEE PROTECTION SYSTEM.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL KEEP STORM SURGE
FLOODING AT LEVELS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. FLOODING OF
COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING ACCESS ROADS...OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE
PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT.

...WINDS...

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH...MAINLY IN
SQUALLS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN OLDER MOBILE HOME PARKS. NEWLY PLANTED
TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. WEAK
TREE BRANCHES MAY SNAP. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED
ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SQUALLS AND STORM
CELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 830 PM CDT.

$$
 

BlueNewton

Membership Revoked
The water has risen 9 to 10 feet on Galveston Island. By city ordinance, all dwellings have to have the main living quarters a minimum of 8 feet above ground level. If the storm surge is 20 feet, a lot of people on the island are going to get wet. QUOTE]

This is only true of structures which are NOT built behind the Seawall. The vast majority of housing on the island is behind what is left of the seawall. It is built directly on the ground, just like anywhere else. All areas of the island are lower than the seawall boulevard itself.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
Jarhead... I've been praying for two days straight!

BlueNewton... I honestly do not know what to say.

Calrissian... they CAN'T leave now. The causeway has apparently been unsafe for at least two hours... I suspect because of gusts of wind and possibly overtopping by waves. The Mayor of Galvaston issued a statement a couple hours ago basically saying that anyone who was still there would just have to hunker down.

And that school.. OMG. LOOK AT ALL THAT GLASS!!

Anyone know... have they boarded it up? They must have tried, right?

This is starting to have the feel of one of those nightmares, where you're wading in quicksand with the wind howling, and you just can't wake up.

May God have mercy on those poor people.

Summerthyme
 
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