WEATHER Hurricane Ike Daily Thread, Friday/ 9-12-08
- Thread starter Jarhead
- Start date
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- Tags
- disaster hurricane ike
- Status
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
DISCUSSION...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE CLOSING IN ON THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...
AT 4 AM...IKE IS ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. THE
STORM IS MOVING W-NW AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS BY 5 AM AND AFFECT THE COAST
BY 11 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY 6 PM.
PARTS OF THE COAST WILL ENDURE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR 8 TO 10
HOURS. CURRENT TPC TRACK TAKES THE STORM RIGHT OVER GALVESTON
ISLAND AS A CATEGORY 3 STORM. RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND THESE PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN HIGH/STRONG THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE BEEFED UP QPF TOTALS AND WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE
FLOOD STATEMENT REGARDING THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE STORM SURGE
WITH THIS STORM IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN A STORM OF THIS
MAGNITUDE SHOULD PRODUCE. THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND A POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING WEATHER EVENT. PLEASE HEED ALL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SEE TCPAT4 AND HLSHGX FOR
MORE DETAILS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A COOL FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOR NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
DISCUSSION...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE CLOSING IN ON THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...
AT 4 AM...IKE IS ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. THE
STORM IS MOVING W-NW AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS BY 5 AM AND AFFECT THE COAST
BY 11 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY 6 PM.
PARTS OF THE COAST WILL ENDURE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR 8 TO 10
HOURS. CURRENT TPC TRACK TAKES THE STORM RIGHT OVER GALVESTON
ISLAND AS A CATEGORY 3 STORM. RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND THESE PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN HIGH/STRONG THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE BEEFED UP QPF TOTALS AND WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE
FLOOD STATEMENT REGARDING THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE STORM SURGE
WITH THIS STORM IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN A STORM OF THIS
MAGNITUDE SHOULD PRODUCE. THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND A POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING WEATHER EVENT. PLEASE HEED ALL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SEE TCPAT4 AND HLSHGX FOR
MORE DETAILS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A COOL FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOR NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
ParanoidNot
Veteran Member
Thank you very much!
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 121150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 MPH...176 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...92.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 121150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 MPH...176 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...92.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Rubythedane
Contributing Member
Weather after Ike
Am I reading this right? Does that mean we'll have cooler dryer air after this storm passes? That will be a blessing for those of us with out power.
Am I reading this right? Does that mean we'll have cooler dryer air after this storm passes? That will be a blessing for those of us with out power.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KHGX 121233 CCA
HLSHGX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
731 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
AT 700 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
TODAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES. AN OIL PLATFORM
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 109 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 400 FEET.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
TXZ200-213-214-235>238-131245-
/O.COR.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
731 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
...UPDATED EVACUATION INFORMATION FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY...
AT 700 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BRAZORIA COUNTY:
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL...
AND ANGLETON.
RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION
FROM BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS
TO COMPLETION.
CHAMBERS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
GALVESTON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA...
OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND...
KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.
SPECIAL NEEDS EVACUATION IS ALSO TAKING PLACE.
BUSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FOR CITIZENS THAT NEED ASSISTANCE WITH
EVACUATIONS. BUSES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING PICKUP POINTS:
BACLIFF COMMUNITY CENTER: 4500 10TH STREET...BACLIFF...77518
DICKINSON COMMUNITY CENTER: 2417 HWY 3...DICKINSON...77539
HITCHCOCK LIBRARY...8005 BARRY AVENUE...HITCHCOCK...77563
CRYSTAL BEACH ANNEX...941 NOBLE CARL DRIVE...CRYSTAL BEACH...
77650
CITIZENS SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO
EVACUATE...PLEASE REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND
IMPORTANT PAPERS.
THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.
SCHOOL CLOSINGS...THE FOLLOWING SCHOOL DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH ISLAND...HITCHCOCK...SANTA FE...CLEAR
CREEK...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON AND DICKINSON. THE FOLLOWING
DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY...LA MARQUE AND TEXAS CITY.
THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE
TO
THE PENINSULA.
UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH HOSPITAL IN GALVESTON MAY
BEGIN A COMPLETE EVACUATION OF THE HOSPITAL FACILITIES THIS
MORNING. THE EMERGENCY ROOM WILL STAY OPEN.
HARRIS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP
CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586...
77598 AND 77507.
PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR HARRIS COUNTY GOVERNMENT WORKERS...ESSENTIAL WORKERS ONLY
REPORT ON FRIDAY.
FOR RESIDENTS IN THE MANDATORY EVACUATION ZIP ZONES WHO HAVE
SPECIAL NEEDS AND ARE NOT REGISTERED...PLEASE CALL 311.
THERE WILL BE NO TRASH SERVICE ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED
HIGH WINDS.
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES IS SUSPENDING FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY
AIRPORT BEGINNING AT 9 AM TODAY.
JACKSON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A
PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR
PET. IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT
A SEPARATE FACILITY.
BE SURE TO START YOUR EVACUATION WITH A FULL TANK OF GAS.
IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318. YOU SHOULD COME TO THE BAY CITY
SERVICE CENTER OR KC HALL IN PALACIOS.
RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO
THE SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES
TO OPEN SHELTERS.
ALL SCHOOLS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY.
PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL ALSO BE CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
15TH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDE LEVELS AT GALVESTON AND NORTH JETTY ARE ALREADY 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE RISING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL EXCEED 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND ALONG THE SHORELINES OF THE BAYS BY MID
MORNING. WATER LEVELS WILL RISE STEADILY BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON
TODAY AS THE STORM SURGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WATER LEVELS WILL
RISE VERY RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 3 AM SATURDAY...AREAS NEAR
THE COAST MAY BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW DROP AFTER 3 TO 5 AM. MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES
OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 6 FEET
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...2 TO 5 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...12 TO 15 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND
INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......15 TO 20 FEET
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 25 FEET
LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!
ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL
EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH
EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
HIGH TIDE TIMES:
MORGANS POINT...
FRI 2:52 PM.
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
FRI 10:36 AM.
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT...
FRI 8:25 AM.
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR...
FRI 1:52 PM.
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
FRI 1:38 PM.
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
FRI 12:32 PM.
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH...
FRI 7:09 AM.
FRI 4:16 PM.
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS...
FRI 1:29 PM.
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT...
FRI 12:54 PM.
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR...
FRI 10:15 AM.
SAT 2:01 PM.
NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
...WINDS...
PERSONS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN
A WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
POORLY-BUILT STRUCTURES SHOULD EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH
AS A WELL BUILT HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD
CONSIDER EVACUATING AS WINDS CAN BE STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH
RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL.
THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE ARE UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY 8 TO 10 AM FRIDAY...AND SPREAD
INLAND TO THE HOUSTON AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 3 PM FRIDAY.
WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL THEN POSSIBLY
LAST ABOUT 24 HOURS.
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF IKE THE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY EVENING ON
FRIDAY AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA 9 TO 11 PM FRIDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 10 TO 12 HOURS.
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 95 TO 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.
VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND TAKES EFFECT AT 6 AM
THOUGH RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE MORE SPOTTY BUT WILL
EXPAND AND INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE.
YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 AM CDT.
$$
WTUS84 KHGX 121233 CCA
HLSHGX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
731 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
AT 700 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
TODAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES. AN OIL PLATFORM
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 109 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 400 FEET.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
TXZ200-213-214-235>238-131245-
/O.COR.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
731 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
...UPDATED EVACUATION INFORMATION FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY...
AT 700 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BRAZORIA COUNTY:
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL...
AND ANGLETON.
RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION
FROM BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS
TO COMPLETION.
CHAMBERS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
GALVESTON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA...
OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND...
KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.
SPECIAL NEEDS EVACUATION IS ALSO TAKING PLACE.
BUSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FOR CITIZENS THAT NEED ASSISTANCE WITH
EVACUATIONS. BUSES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING PICKUP POINTS:
BACLIFF COMMUNITY CENTER: 4500 10TH STREET...BACLIFF...77518
DICKINSON COMMUNITY CENTER: 2417 HWY 3...DICKINSON...77539
HITCHCOCK LIBRARY...8005 BARRY AVENUE...HITCHCOCK...77563
CRYSTAL BEACH ANNEX...941 NOBLE CARL DRIVE...CRYSTAL BEACH...
77650
CITIZENS SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO
EVACUATE...PLEASE REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND
IMPORTANT PAPERS.
THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.
SCHOOL CLOSINGS...THE FOLLOWING SCHOOL DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH ISLAND...HITCHCOCK...SANTA FE...CLEAR
CREEK...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON AND DICKINSON. THE FOLLOWING
DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY...LA MARQUE AND TEXAS CITY.
THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE
TO
THE PENINSULA.
UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH HOSPITAL IN GALVESTON MAY
BEGIN A COMPLETE EVACUATION OF THE HOSPITAL FACILITIES THIS
MORNING. THE EMERGENCY ROOM WILL STAY OPEN.
HARRIS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP
CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586...
77598 AND 77507.
PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR HARRIS COUNTY GOVERNMENT WORKERS...ESSENTIAL WORKERS ONLY
REPORT ON FRIDAY.
FOR RESIDENTS IN THE MANDATORY EVACUATION ZIP ZONES WHO HAVE
SPECIAL NEEDS AND ARE NOT REGISTERED...PLEASE CALL 311.
THERE WILL BE NO TRASH SERVICE ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED
HIGH WINDS.
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES IS SUSPENDING FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY
AIRPORT BEGINNING AT 9 AM TODAY.
JACKSON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A
PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR
PET. IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT
A SEPARATE FACILITY.
BE SURE TO START YOUR EVACUATION WITH A FULL TANK OF GAS.
IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318. YOU SHOULD COME TO THE BAY CITY
SERVICE CENTER OR KC HALL IN PALACIOS.
RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO
THE SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES
TO OPEN SHELTERS.
ALL SCHOOLS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY.
PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL ALSO BE CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
15TH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDE LEVELS AT GALVESTON AND NORTH JETTY ARE ALREADY 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE RISING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL EXCEED 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND ALONG THE SHORELINES OF THE BAYS BY MID
MORNING. WATER LEVELS WILL RISE STEADILY BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON
TODAY AS THE STORM SURGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WATER LEVELS WILL
RISE VERY RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 3 AM SATURDAY...AREAS NEAR
THE COAST MAY BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW DROP AFTER 3 TO 5 AM. MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES
OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 6 FEET
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...2 TO 5 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...12 TO 15 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND
INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......15 TO 20 FEET
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 25 FEET
LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!
ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL
EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH
EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
HIGH TIDE TIMES:
MORGANS POINT...
FRI 2:52 PM.
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
FRI 10:36 AM.
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT...
FRI 8:25 AM.
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR...
FRI 1:52 PM.
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
FRI 1:38 PM.
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
FRI 12:32 PM.
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH...
FRI 7:09 AM.
FRI 4:16 PM.
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS...
FRI 1:29 PM.
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT...
FRI 12:54 PM.
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR...
FRI 10:15 AM.
SAT 2:01 PM.
NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
...WINDS...
PERSONS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN
A WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
POORLY-BUILT STRUCTURES SHOULD EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH
AS A WELL BUILT HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD
CONSIDER EVACUATING AS WINDS CAN BE STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH
RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL.
THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE ARE UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY 8 TO 10 AM FRIDAY...AND SPREAD
INLAND TO THE HOUSTON AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 3 PM FRIDAY.
WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL THEN POSSIBLY
LAST ABOUT 24 HOURS.
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF IKE THE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY EVENING ON
FRIDAY AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA 9 TO 11 PM FRIDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 10 TO 12 HOURS.
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 95 TO 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.
VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND TAKES EFFECT AT 6 AM
THOUGH RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE MORE SPOTTY BUT WILL
EXPAND AND INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE.
YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 AM CDT.
$$
Rubythedane
Contributing Member
Storm surge map upper TX/La border
http://www.kfdm.com/sections/weather/hurricane/stormsurge/
Local TV station that will also have updates. I'm fortunate in that my location will be dry. Only have to worry about wind.
Residents below I10 have a possibilty of salt water intrusion for this storm.
All refineries in this area are in Jefferson county below I10.
http://www.kfdm.com/sections/weather/hurricane/stormsurge/
Local TV station that will also have updates. I'm fortunate in that my location will be dry. Only have to worry about wind.
Residents below I10 have a possibilty of salt water intrusion for this storm.
All refineries in this area are in Jefferson county below I10.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, September 12, 2008 720 am EDT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Ike:
Reconnaissance aircraft have found a increase in the winds with Ike this morning and the maximum winds are now 105 mph. Ike's current position as of 5 am Eastern/4 am Central Time is 26.7 North Latitude, 91.6 West Longitude or about 265 miles southeast of Galveston Texas.
Even though Ike has strengthened a little overnight, the strongest winds are still well-removed from the center, occurring about 50 to 60 miles away from the center on the north side of the hurricane. The latest central pressure was 953 millibars.
Ike is generally tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph. There isn't any real changes in the overall forecast setup this morning. Ike is tracking around the periphery of a large ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States toward a weakness caused by a trough of low pressure over the southwestern United States.
The latest global models and the reliable track model guidance are in generally very good agreement on a landfall somewhere in Brazoria or Galveston Counties. With that said, the latest GFS model forecasts a more westward track before landfall and forecasts a landfall on the Matagorda-Brazoria county line on Saturday morning.
At this point, the GFS model is considered a outlier and I am going along with the UKMET, GFDL and European models and am still looking at a landfall very near, if not directly over Galveston and then right up Galveston Bay around 3 am Eastern/2 am Central Time early Saturday morning.
It does appear that Ike is undergoing about 15 knots of northerly shear early this morning. The SHIPS model forecasts northerly shear of 8 to 15 knots until landfall. That, combined with the lack of an inner core, suggests slow strengthening right up to landfall.
The GFDL and HWRF models forecast some modest strengthening before landfall, with the GFDL forecasting an intensity of just over 115 mph. Based on this, I do think Ike will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of 115 to 125 mph.
So, to sum it up this morning:
Ike is expected to make landfall very near, if not directly over Galveston as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 to 125 mph winds around 3 am Eastern/2 am Central Time early Saturday morning.
Storm Surge Forecast:
Tide levels at Galveston and North Jetty are already 3 feet above normal tide levels. Tide levels will continue rising through the morning and will exceed 5 feet above mean lower low water along the Upper Texas coast and along the shorelines of the bays by mid-morning. Water levels will rise steadily beginning late this afternoon as the storm surge moves into the area. Water levels will rise very rapidly tonight through early Saturday morning.
Maximum Storm Surge Forecast:
Texas:
Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent, including Matagorda Bay: 4 to 9 Feet.
Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass, including Freeport: 12 to 15 Feet.
Gulf-facing coastline San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Island and High Island: 15 to 21 Feet.
Shoreline of Galveston Bay: 15 to 25 Feet And Possibly Higher.
Louisiana:
Coastal Cameron Parish: 15 to 18 Feet.
Coastal Vermilion, Iberia and St. Mary Parishes: 12 to 15 Feet.
Coastal Terrebonne Parish: 9 to 12 Feet.
Coastal Southeast Louisiana, including New Orleans: 4 to 9 Feet.
Mississippi coast: 4 to 8 Feet.
Alabama and Florida Panhandle: 3 to 6 Feet.
Life threatening storm surge flooding is likely!!!
All neighborhoods and possibly entire coastal communities will be severely flooded during the period of peak storm surge. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face life threatening flooding and may loose their life.
Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere.
Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away by the water.
Numerous roads will be swamped, some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff.
Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland.
Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff.
Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage, with massive destruction of homes, including those of block construction.
For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.
Wind Forecast:
It is imperative that persons who live in mobile homes or poorly-built structures should evacuate immediately to a safer location such as a well built home. Persons who live in high rises should strongly consider evacuating immediately as winds can be much stronger at the top of a high rise than at ground level.
The wind field surrounding Ike is very large in size. Tropical storm force winds in excess of 40 mph are expected to reach the coast of Texas by 8 to 10 am this morning and spread inland to the Houston Metro area between 11 am and 3 pm today. Winds of at least tropical storm force will then last for up to 24 to 30 hours straight.
Hurricane force winds will reach the Texas coast early this evening and then spread inland reaching the Houston Metro area between 9 and 11 pm tonight. Hurricane force winds will then last for up to 12 hours straight.
Peak wind gusts of 100 to 115 mph is forecast across Harris, Liberty, Brazoria, Galveston and Chambers counties. Wind speeds in excess of 115 mph will be possible near where the center of the storm ultimately comes onshore.
Structural damage will include the majority of mobile homes being severely damaged or destroyed. Those that survive will be uninhabitable until repaired. Houses of poor to average construction will have major damage, including partial wall collapse and roofs being lifted off. Many will be uninhabitable.
Well constructed houses will incur minor damage to shingles, siding, gutters, as well as blown out windows. Up to one quarter of gabled roofs will fail.
Partial roof failure is expected at Industrial Parks, especially to those buildings with light weight steel and aluminum coverings.
Older low rising apartment roofs may also be torn off, as well as receiving siding and shingle damage. Up to one quarter of all glass in high rise office buildings will be blown out. Airborne debris will cause damage, injury and possible fatalities.
Natural damage will include all trees with rotting bases becoming uprooted or snapped. Nearly all large branches will snap. Between one quarter and one half of healthy small to medium sized trees will be snapped or uprooted, most common where the ground is saturated. Up to three quarters of newly planted ground crops will be damaged.
Inland Flooding:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches with isolated rainfall totals of 10 to 12 inches will be possible today through Saturday along the path of Ike. Significant river and stream flooding is possible in areas of heaviest rainfall.
Tornado Threat: The threat for tornadoes will increase rapidly beginning late today and continue through late Saturday as Ike moves onshore. If a Tornado Warning is issued for your location, you should plan to seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor away from windows.
This is a very large hurricane in overall size. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles from the center of the storm and hurricane force winds extend outward up to 120 miles from the center of the storm. Ike's very strong winds, heavy rainfall and the threat for tornadoes will extend well inland due to the hurricane's accelerating speed at landfall. Damaging hurricane force winds are possible as far inland as 100 to 150 miles from the coast, roughly along and east of Interstate 45. Tropical storm force winds will likely extend inland to Dallas, Tyler, Shreveport and quite possibly into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
In conclusion, this is a VERY DANGEROUS hurricane. A Category 3 hurricane is forecast to make landfall very near Galveston, Texas around 3 am Eastern/2 am Central Time early Saturday morning. A large and destructive storm surge of up to 25 Feet will cross the middle and upper Texas coast. The next update on Hurricane Ike will be issued by 2 pm EDT/1 pm CDT This Afternoon.
Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, September 12, 2008 720 am EDT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Ike:
Reconnaissance aircraft have found a increase in the winds with Ike this morning and the maximum winds are now 105 mph. Ike's current position as of 5 am Eastern/4 am Central Time is 26.7 North Latitude, 91.6 West Longitude or about 265 miles southeast of Galveston Texas.
Even though Ike has strengthened a little overnight, the strongest winds are still well-removed from the center, occurring about 50 to 60 miles away from the center on the north side of the hurricane. The latest central pressure was 953 millibars.
Ike is generally tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph. There isn't any real changes in the overall forecast setup this morning. Ike is tracking around the periphery of a large ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States toward a weakness caused by a trough of low pressure over the southwestern United States.
The latest global models and the reliable track model guidance are in generally very good agreement on a landfall somewhere in Brazoria or Galveston Counties. With that said, the latest GFS model forecasts a more westward track before landfall and forecasts a landfall on the Matagorda-Brazoria county line on Saturday morning.
At this point, the GFS model is considered a outlier and I am going along with the UKMET, GFDL and European models and am still looking at a landfall very near, if not directly over Galveston and then right up Galveston Bay around 3 am Eastern/2 am Central Time early Saturday morning.
It does appear that Ike is undergoing about 15 knots of northerly shear early this morning. The SHIPS model forecasts northerly shear of 8 to 15 knots until landfall. That, combined with the lack of an inner core, suggests slow strengthening right up to landfall.
The GFDL and HWRF models forecast some modest strengthening before landfall, with the GFDL forecasting an intensity of just over 115 mph. Based on this, I do think Ike will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of 115 to 125 mph.
So, to sum it up this morning:
Ike is expected to make landfall very near, if not directly over Galveston as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 to 125 mph winds around 3 am Eastern/2 am Central Time early Saturday morning.
Storm Surge Forecast:
Tide levels at Galveston and North Jetty are already 3 feet above normal tide levels. Tide levels will continue rising through the morning and will exceed 5 feet above mean lower low water along the Upper Texas coast and along the shorelines of the bays by mid-morning. Water levels will rise steadily beginning late this afternoon as the storm surge moves into the area. Water levels will rise very rapidly tonight through early Saturday morning.
Maximum Storm Surge Forecast:
Texas:
Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent, including Matagorda Bay: 4 to 9 Feet.
Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass, including Freeport: 12 to 15 Feet.
Gulf-facing coastline San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Island and High Island: 15 to 21 Feet.
Shoreline of Galveston Bay: 15 to 25 Feet And Possibly Higher.
Louisiana:
Coastal Cameron Parish: 15 to 18 Feet.
Coastal Vermilion, Iberia and St. Mary Parishes: 12 to 15 Feet.
Coastal Terrebonne Parish: 9 to 12 Feet.
Coastal Southeast Louisiana, including New Orleans: 4 to 9 Feet.
Mississippi coast: 4 to 8 Feet.
Alabama and Florida Panhandle: 3 to 6 Feet.
Life threatening storm surge flooding is likely!!!
All neighborhoods and possibly entire coastal communities will be severely flooded during the period of peak storm surge. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face life threatening flooding and may loose their life.
Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere.
Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away by the water.
Numerous roads will be swamped, some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff.
Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland.
Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff.
Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage, with massive destruction of homes, including those of block construction.
For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.
Wind Forecast:
It is imperative that persons who live in mobile homes or poorly-built structures should evacuate immediately to a safer location such as a well built home. Persons who live in high rises should strongly consider evacuating immediately as winds can be much stronger at the top of a high rise than at ground level.
The wind field surrounding Ike is very large in size. Tropical storm force winds in excess of 40 mph are expected to reach the coast of Texas by 8 to 10 am this morning and spread inland to the Houston Metro area between 11 am and 3 pm today. Winds of at least tropical storm force will then last for up to 24 to 30 hours straight.
Hurricane force winds will reach the Texas coast early this evening and then spread inland reaching the Houston Metro area between 9 and 11 pm tonight. Hurricane force winds will then last for up to 12 hours straight.
Peak wind gusts of 100 to 115 mph is forecast across Harris, Liberty, Brazoria, Galveston and Chambers counties. Wind speeds in excess of 115 mph will be possible near where the center of the storm ultimately comes onshore.
Structural damage will include the majority of mobile homes being severely damaged or destroyed. Those that survive will be uninhabitable until repaired. Houses of poor to average construction will have major damage, including partial wall collapse and roofs being lifted off. Many will be uninhabitable.
Well constructed houses will incur minor damage to shingles, siding, gutters, as well as blown out windows. Up to one quarter of gabled roofs will fail.
Partial roof failure is expected at Industrial Parks, especially to those buildings with light weight steel and aluminum coverings.
Older low rising apartment roofs may also be torn off, as well as receiving siding and shingle damage. Up to one quarter of all glass in high rise office buildings will be blown out. Airborne debris will cause damage, injury and possible fatalities.
Natural damage will include all trees with rotting bases becoming uprooted or snapped. Nearly all large branches will snap. Between one quarter and one half of healthy small to medium sized trees will be snapped or uprooted, most common where the ground is saturated. Up to three quarters of newly planted ground crops will be damaged.
Inland Flooding:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches with isolated rainfall totals of 10 to 12 inches will be possible today through Saturday along the path of Ike. Significant river and stream flooding is possible in areas of heaviest rainfall.
Tornado Threat: The threat for tornadoes will increase rapidly beginning late today and continue through late Saturday as Ike moves onshore. If a Tornado Warning is issued for your location, you should plan to seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor away from windows.
This is a very large hurricane in overall size. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles from the center of the storm and hurricane force winds extend outward up to 120 miles from the center of the storm. Ike's very strong winds, heavy rainfall and the threat for tornadoes will extend well inland due to the hurricane's accelerating speed at landfall. Damaging hurricane force winds are possible as far inland as 100 to 150 miles from the coast, roughly along and east of Interstate 45. Tropical storm force winds will likely extend inland to Dallas, Tyler, Shreveport and quite possibly into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
In conclusion, this is a VERY DANGEROUS hurricane. A Category 3 hurricane is forecast to make landfall very near Galveston, Texas around 3 am Eastern/2 am Central Time early Saturday morning. A large and destructive storm surge of up to 25 Feet will cross the middle and upper Texas coast. The next update on Hurricane Ike will be issued by 2 pm EDT/1 pm CDT This Afternoon.
Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KSHV 121336
HLSSHV
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
836 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE IKE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES. AN OIL PLATFORM
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 89 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 400 FEET.
IKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST AND TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE OUTER FEEDER BANDS
FROM IKE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY ANYWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
TXZ149-152-165>167-122045-
/O.CON.KSHV.TI.W.0002.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
/O.CON.KSHV.HI.A.0001.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
CHEROKEE-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
836 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF DEEP EAST TEXAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A HURRICANE WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
CHEROKEE...NACOGDOCHES...ANGELINA... SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SABINE
COUNTIES IN TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE SAME AREAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 400 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES EAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON
TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SQUALLS.
A HURRICANE WIND WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH
AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED...AS THEY CAN
EASILY BECOME PROJECTILES IN HIGH WINDS. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF
GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST
IN CASE.
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE PROLONGED
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...AND
DAMAGE BUILDINGS AND HOMES. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...UPROOTED TREES WILL BE COMMON.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS MEANS WINDS OF 60 TO
75 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 90 MILES AN HOUR COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PATH
OF IKE.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS IN
FEEDER BANDS AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IKE MOVES NORTHWARD. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO
STAY
TUNED TO THE WEATHER AS ANY TORNADOES THAT FORM CAN DEVELOP VERY
RAPIDLY AND WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT.
$$
WTUS84 KSHV 121336
HLSSHV
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
836 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE IKE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES. AN OIL PLATFORM
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 89 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 400 FEET.
IKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST AND TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE OUTER FEEDER BANDS
FROM IKE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY ANYWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
TXZ149-152-165>167-122045-
/O.CON.KSHV.TI.W.0002.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
/O.CON.KSHV.HI.A.0001.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
CHEROKEE-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
836 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF DEEP EAST TEXAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A HURRICANE WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
CHEROKEE...NACOGDOCHES...ANGELINA... SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SABINE
COUNTIES IN TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE SAME AREAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 400 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES EAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON
TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SQUALLS.
A HURRICANE WIND WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH
AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED...AS THEY CAN
EASILY BECOME PROJECTILES IN HIGH WINDS. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF
GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST
IN CASE.
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE PROLONGED
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...AND
DAMAGE BUILDINGS AND HOMES. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...UPROOTED TREES WILL BE COMMON.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS MEANS WINDS OF 60 TO
75 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 90 MILES AN HOUR COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PATH
OF IKE.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS IN
FEEDER BANDS AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IKE MOVES NORTHWARD. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO
STAY
TUNED TO THE WEATHER AS ANY TORNADOES THAT FORM CAN DEVELOP VERY
RAPIDLY AND WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT.
$$
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Continuous coverage, live of Ike Link: http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826&live=yes&noad=yes
Jarhead
Jarhead
dimensiondancer
Inactive
They should have named this storm ISSAC, it would fit it to a tee.
ISSAC'S STORM, PART II
ISSAC'S STORM, PART II
Mail Lady
Inactive
Continuous coverage, live of Ike Link: http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826&live=yes&noad=yes
Jarhead
At the above link, coverage was showing the waves already overtopping the seawall, sloshing up on the roadway, on Galveston Island.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Sea floods Texas island; get out or 'certain death'
HOUSTON, Texas (CNN) -- Floodwaters surged into Galveston Island neighborhoods Friday morning with the center of Hurricane Ike still more than 200 miles from landfall.
Waves washed for blocks inland, the beginning of a storm surge that forecasters warned could reach up to 22 feet and bring "certain death" to anyone who remained in Galveston Bay homes.
Rarely do forecasters use such forceful language.
The last time they did was three years ago as Hurricane Katrina closed in on New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.
Forecasters expect Ike, a Category 2 storm, to strengthen before its center makes landfall late Friday or early Saturday. The storm is so big that it fills most of the Gulf of Mexico.
In the turbulent Gulf, 22 people were stranded aboard a freighter that had lost its engines and was adrift in the path of Ike, the Coast Guard reported.
The 584-foot Panamanian-flagged Antolena was trying to beat the storm steaming south from Port Arthur, Texas, when it lost power about 90 miles south of Galveston, Coast Guard Capt. Bill Diehl said. The guard was assessing rescue options, he said.
Although the weather service reports when a hurricane's center will hit land, it also says that the worst of the storm can hit before or after that.
Roughly 3.5 million people live in the storm's impact zone, according to federal estimates.
The weather service painted a vivid picture in its warning of the destruction it expects: a towering wall of water, possibly up to 22 feet high, crashing over the Galveston Bay shoreline as the brunt of Ike comes ashore. That wall of water could send floodwaters surging into Houston, more than 20 miles inland.
"All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the peak storm tide," the weather service warned. "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one- or two-story homes will face certain death."
But farther inland, 4 million Houston-area residents were told to hunker down and stay home, even as government offices and schools prepared to close Friday in anticipation of the hurricane.
"We are only evacuating areas subject to a storm surge," said Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, the county's chief executive officer. "Yes, we know you will lose electricity. But you're not in danger of losing your life, so stay put."
Forecasters find Hurricane Ike so intimidating because of the location they expect it to land -- near Galveston Island, just south of Houston. The city of Galveston is on the island.
If that happens -- hurricane tracks are hard to predict and subject to change -- the storm's counter-clockwise rotation would push water into Galveston Bay for hour upon hour, battering sea walls and structures.
The final storm surge, the one that could exceed 20 feet in height, would come as the hurricane's eye crosses the shoreline.
Galveston spokeswoman Mary Jo Naschke estimated Friday morning that just over half of the city's 58,000 people had been evacuated.
Others chose to stay.
"I've decided not to evacuate," said iReporter Matteu Erchull on Galveston Island. "We have a lot of faith in the seawall, and we have boards on the windows. Most people on the island live on second or third stories, so they don't have to worry about the water so much.
"The actual stores down here ran out of sand so we took some ice bags and filled them with sand from the beach," he said.
Paul King of Galveston said hurricanes are part of life on the Texas coast, according to CNN affiliate KSAT-TV.
"You enjoy it 360 days of the year," he said of his Galveston Island property. "And the other five, you have to get out of town."
A slight northward change in Ike's path could spare much of the Houston area and its millions of residents from catastrophic flooding by keeping the surge out of the bay and pushing it to less-populated areas.
The August 2005 warning for Katrina said "most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks ... perhaps longer" and that people and animals "exposed to the winds will face certain death."
The warning proved largely correct. Parts of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast still bear the scars of Katrina and remain uninhabitable.
More than 1,800 people died as a result of Hurricane Katrina. Hundreds more were never accounted for.
Ike's outer bands began moving across the Texas shore Friday morning, even though the storm's center was hundreds of miles from land.
"Do not take this storm lightly," Michael Chertoff, secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, said Thursday afternoon. "This is not a storm to gamble with. It is large; it is powerful; it carries a lot of water."
Chertoff and representatives from the Federal Emergency Management Agency said their efforts were focused on evacuations as Ike moved northwest at 13 mph across the central Gulf of Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
Chertoff also urged people not to succumb to "hurricane fatigue," referring to concerns that authorities were overestimating Ike's potential impact.
"Unless you're fatigued with living, I suggest you want to take seriously a storm of this size and scale," he said Thursday.
Houston Mayor Bill White said he's heard that some people who live in areas under a mandatory evacuation order say they plan to stay home. He strongly urged against it.
"If you think you want to ride something out, and people are talking about a 20-foot wall of water coming at you, then you better think again," White said.
At 8 a.m. ET Friday, the hurricane center said hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 120 miles from Ike's center. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 275 miles.
The storm was centered about 365 miles east of Corpus Christi and about 235 miles southeast of Galveston. It was moving west-northwest at near 13 mph.
Mandatory evacuations remained in effect for low-lying coastal areas northeast and southwest of Galveston, in Chambers, Matagorda and Brazoria counties.
Ships in port were told to leave, said Port of Houston spokeswoman Linda Whitlock. The area's two major airports, George Bush Intercontinental and William P. Hobby, also halted all commercial flights.
CNN's Mike Mount contributed to this report.
**
Gulf of Mexico waters wash into a neighborhood on Galveston Island, Texas, on Monday morning.
HOUSTON, Texas (CNN) -- Floodwaters surged into Galveston Island neighborhoods Friday morning with the center of Hurricane Ike still more than 200 miles from landfall.
Waves washed for blocks inland, the beginning of a storm surge that forecasters warned could reach up to 22 feet and bring "certain death" to anyone who remained in Galveston Bay homes.
Rarely do forecasters use such forceful language.
The last time they did was three years ago as Hurricane Katrina closed in on New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.
Forecasters expect Ike, a Category 2 storm, to strengthen before its center makes landfall late Friday or early Saturday. The storm is so big that it fills most of the Gulf of Mexico.
In the turbulent Gulf, 22 people were stranded aboard a freighter that had lost its engines and was adrift in the path of Ike, the Coast Guard reported.
The 584-foot Panamanian-flagged Antolena was trying to beat the storm steaming south from Port Arthur, Texas, when it lost power about 90 miles south of Galveston, Coast Guard Capt. Bill Diehl said. The guard was assessing rescue options, he said.
Although the weather service reports when a hurricane's center will hit land, it also says that the worst of the storm can hit before or after that.
Roughly 3.5 million people live in the storm's impact zone, according to federal estimates.
The weather service painted a vivid picture in its warning of the destruction it expects: a towering wall of water, possibly up to 22 feet high, crashing over the Galveston Bay shoreline as the brunt of Ike comes ashore. That wall of water could send floodwaters surging into Houston, more than 20 miles inland.
"All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the peak storm tide," the weather service warned. "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one- or two-story homes will face certain death."
But farther inland, 4 million Houston-area residents were told to hunker down and stay home, even as government offices and schools prepared to close Friday in anticipation of the hurricane.
"We are only evacuating areas subject to a storm surge," said Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, the county's chief executive officer. "Yes, we know you will lose electricity. But you're not in danger of losing your life, so stay put."
Forecasters find Hurricane Ike so intimidating because of the location they expect it to land -- near Galveston Island, just south of Houston. The city of Galveston is on the island.
If that happens -- hurricane tracks are hard to predict and subject to change -- the storm's counter-clockwise rotation would push water into Galveston Bay for hour upon hour, battering sea walls and structures.
The final storm surge, the one that could exceed 20 feet in height, would come as the hurricane's eye crosses the shoreline.
Galveston spokeswoman Mary Jo Naschke estimated Friday morning that just over half of the city's 58,000 people had been evacuated.
Others chose to stay.
"I've decided not to evacuate," said iReporter Matteu Erchull on Galveston Island. "We have a lot of faith in the seawall, and we have boards on the windows. Most people on the island live on second or third stories, so they don't have to worry about the water so much.
"The actual stores down here ran out of sand so we took some ice bags and filled them with sand from the beach," he said.
Paul King of Galveston said hurricanes are part of life on the Texas coast, according to CNN affiliate KSAT-TV.
"You enjoy it 360 days of the year," he said of his Galveston Island property. "And the other five, you have to get out of town."
A slight northward change in Ike's path could spare much of the Houston area and its millions of residents from catastrophic flooding by keeping the surge out of the bay and pushing it to less-populated areas.
The August 2005 warning for Katrina said "most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks ... perhaps longer" and that people and animals "exposed to the winds will face certain death."
The warning proved largely correct. Parts of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast still bear the scars of Katrina and remain uninhabitable.
More than 1,800 people died as a result of Hurricane Katrina. Hundreds more were never accounted for.
Ike's outer bands began moving across the Texas shore Friday morning, even though the storm's center was hundreds of miles from land.
"Do not take this storm lightly," Michael Chertoff, secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, said Thursday afternoon. "This is not a storm to gamble with. It is large; it is powerful; it carries a lot of water."
Chertoff and representatives from the Federal Emergency Management Agency said their efforts were focused on evacuations as Ike moved northwest at 13 mph across the central Gulf of Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
Chertoff also urged people not to succumb to "hurricane fatigue," referring to concerns that authorities were overestimating Ike's potential impact.
"Unless you're fatigued with living, I suggest you want to take seriously a storm of this size and scale," he said Thursday.
Houston Mayor Bill White said he's heard that some people who live in areas under a mandatory evacuation order say they plan to stay home. He strongly urged against it.
"If you think you want to ride something out, and people are talking about a 20-foot wall of water coming at you, then you better think again," White said.
At 8 a.m. ET Friday, the hurricane center said hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 120 miles from Ike's center. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 275 miles.
The storm was centered about 365 miles east of Corpus Christi and about 235 miles southeast of Galveston. It was moving west-northwest at near 13 mph.
Mandatory evacuations remained in effect for low-lying coastal areas northeast and southwest of Galveston, in Chambers, Matagorda and Brazoria counties.
Ships in port were told to leave, said Port of Houston spokeswoman Linda Whitlock. The area's two major airports, George Bush Intercontinental and William P. Hobby, also halted all commercial flights.
CNN's Mike Mount contributed to this report.
**
Gulf of Mexico waters wash into a neighborhood on Galveston Island, Texas, on Monday morning.
Attachments
Mail Lady
Inactive
Seawall is now no longer visible and only road leading to mainland is impassable. Heaven help those people who chose to stay... no way out now.
ETA: Heard that the causeway is still open. They're showing folks riding bicycles on the beach, people out there taking pictures, etc.
ETA: Heard that the causeway is still open. They're showing folks riding bicycles on the beach, people out there taking pictures, etc.
Last edited:
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Yep! And the storm is still 200+ miles from the coast. I hate to think what will happen as Ike gets closer.
Also.... Update on the freighter in the above CNN article. KHOU reported that the Coast Guard WILL NOT attempt a rescue due to conditions being too hazardous.
Jarhead
dimensiondancer
Inactive
My great grandfather was a survivor of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. I was born after he died, so I didn't hear any of the stories firsthand. They settled in Galveston straight from Germany and after that horrible storm, moved to Brenham, TX.
This storm (IKE) is being compared to that unnamed storm on 9-8-1900.
I cannot believe there are people staying in hotels on the seawall and still partying down. On the news last night I saw a 72 year old man staying in the "Poop Deck", a old rundown hotel, sitting on his balcony and defying anyone saying to leave. He was busy with his margaritas. Oh well, he's had a full life already.
This storm is going to leave a lot of bodies.
This storm (IKE) is being compared to that unnamed storm on 9-8-1900.
I cannot believe there are people staying in hotels on the seawall and still partying down. On the news last night I saw a 72 year old man staying in the "Poop Deck", a old rundown hotel, sitting on his balcony and defying anyone saying to leave. He was busy with his margaritas. Oh well, he's had a full life already.
This storm is going to leave a lot of bodies.
Galveston spokesperson estimates about half of residents have evacuated. Galveston has about 58,000 residents?? National Weather Service advises that Galveston residents in one or two story homes face certain death from storm surge. Either the NWS has "overstated the case" here, or there will be a tragic news story to be told come next week. It is fascinating to watch this unfold from a safe distance. Prayers for the folks in Ike's way.
dvo
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 121453
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...100 MPH PLUS WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WEATHER SHOULD DETERIORATE EARLIER...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 195 MILES...320 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
SOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...27.2 N...92.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 121453
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...100 MPH PLUS WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WEATHER SHOULD DETERIORATE EARLIER...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 195 MILES...320 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
SOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...27.2 N...92.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT44 KNHC 121456
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT
DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS
REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY
TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE
CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE
HURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD.
ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.2N 92.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 95.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1200Z 36.0N 93.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT44 KNHC 121456
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT
DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS
REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY
TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE
CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE
HURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD.
ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.2N 92.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 95.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1200Z 36.0N 93.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT24 KNHC 121450
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 92.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 92.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 92.2W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.0N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 92.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT24 KNHC 121450
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 92.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 92.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 92.2W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.0N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 92.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KHGX 121456 AAA
HLSHGX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
956 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...IKE MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
AT 1000 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 195 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
SOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
TXZ200-213-214-235>238-131500-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
956 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
CHANGES TO STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION:
UPDATED CURRENT TIDE LEVELS.
CLARIFICATION OF CALL-TO-ACTION WORDING IN THE SECTION.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BRAZORIA COUNTY:
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL...
AND ANGLETON.
RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION
FROM BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS
TO COMPLETION.
CHAMBERS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
GALVESTON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA...
OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND...
KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.
SPECIAL NEEDS EVACUATION IS ALSO TAKING PLACE.
BUSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FOR CITIZENS THAT NEED ASSISTANCE WITH
EVACUATIONS. BUSES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING PICKUP POINTS:
BACLIFF COMMUNITY CENTER: 4500 10TH STREET...BACLIFF...77518
DICKINSON COMMUNITY CENTER: 2417 HWY 3...DICKINSON...77539
HITCHCOCK LIBRARY...8005 BARRY AVENUE...HITCHCOCK...77563
CRYSTAL BEACH ANNEX...941 NOBLE CARL DRIVE...CRYSTAL BEACH...
77650
CITIZENS SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO
EVACUATE...PLEASE REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND
IMPORTANT PAPERS.
THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.
SCHOOL CLOSINGS...THE FOLLOWING SCHOOL DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH ISLAND...HITCHCOCK...SANTA FE...CLEAR
CREEK...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON AND DICKINSON. THE FOLLOWING
DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY...LA MARQUE AND TEXAS CITY.
THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE
TO THE PENINSULA.
UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH HOSPITAL IN GALVESTON MAY
BEGIN A COMPLETE EVACUATION OF THE HOSPITAL FACILITIES THIS
MORNING. THE EMERGENCY ROOM WILL STAY OPEN.
HARRIS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP
CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586...
77598 AND 77507.
PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR HARRIS COUNTY GOVERNMENT WORKERS...ESSENTIAL WORKERS ONLY
REPORT ON FRIDAY.
FOR RESIDENTS IN THE MANDATORY EVACUATION ZIP ZONES WHO HAVE
SPECIAL NEEDS AND ARE NOT REGISTERED...PLEASE CALL 311.
THERE WILL BE NO TRASH SERVICE ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED
HIGH WINDS.
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES IS SUSPENDING FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY
AIRPORT BEGINNING AT 9 AM TODAY.
JACKSON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A
PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR
PET. IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT
A SEPARATE FACILITY.
BE SURE TO START YOUR EVACUATION WITH A FULL TANK OF GAS.
IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318. YOU SHOULD COME TO THE BAY CITY
SERVICE CENTER OR KC HALL IN PALACIOS.
RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO
THE SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES
TO OPEN SHELTERS.
ALL SCHOOLS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY.
PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL ALSO BE CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
15TH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDE LEVELS AS OF 900 AM CDT:
PLEASURE PIER - 7.5 FEET
SAN LUIS PASS - 6.3 FEET
NORTH JETTY - 6.2 FEET
MORGANS POINT - 4.0 FEET
EAGLE POINT - 4.7 FEET
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 3.8 FEET
ROLLOVER PASS - 3.7 FEET
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL - 4.0 FEET
PORT O`CONNOR - 3.2 FEET
WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 3 AM SATURDAY AS THE STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO
THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AERAS. AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAY BEGIN TO
SEE A SLOW DROP AFTER 3 TO 5 AM. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN
THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET
MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 6 FEET
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...2 TO 5 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...12 TO 15 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND
INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......15 TO 20 FEET
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 25 FEET
LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
BAYSHORE AREAS!
NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY
RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE
DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY.
NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE
WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF.
WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND.
COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE
DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION.
DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
HIGH TIDE TIMES:
MORGANS POINT...
FRI 2:52 PM.
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
FRI 10:36 AM.
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT...
FRI 8:25 AM.
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR...
FRI 1:52 PM.
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
FRI 1:38 PM.
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
FRI 12:32 PM.
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH...
FRI 7:09 AM.
FRI 4:16 PM.
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS...
FRI 1:29 PM.
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT...
FRI 12:54 PM.
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR...
FRI 10:15 AM.
SAT 2:01 PM.
NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
...WINDS...
PERSONS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN
A WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
POORLY-BUILT STRUCTURES SHOULD EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH
AS A WELL BUILT HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD
CONSIDER EVACUATING AS WINDS CAN BE STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH
RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL.
THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE ARE UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY 8 TO 10 AM FRIDAY...AND SPREAD
INLAND TO THE HOUSTON AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 3 PM FRIDAY.
WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL THEN POSSIBLY
LAST ABOUT 24 HOURS.
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF IKE THE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY EVENING ON
FRIDAY AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA 9 TO 11 PM FRIDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 10 TO 12 HOURS.
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 95 TO 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.
VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND TAKES EFFECT AT 6 AM
THOUGH RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE MORE SPOTTY BUT WILL
EXPAND AND INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE.
YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 AM CDT.
$$
WTUS84 KHGX 121456 AAA
HLSHGX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
956 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...IKE MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
AT 1000 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 195 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
SOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
TXZ200-213-214-235>238-131500-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
956 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
CHANGES TO STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION:
UPDATED CURRENT TIDE LEVELS.
CLARIFICATION OF CALL-TO-ACTION WORDING IN THE SECTION.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BRAZORIA COUNTY:
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL...
AND ANGLETON.
RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION
FROM BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS
TO COMPLETION.
CHAMBERS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
GALVESTON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA...
OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND...
KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.
SPECIAL NEEDS EVACUATION IS ALSO TAKING PLACE.
BUSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FOR CITIZENS THAT NEED ASSISTANCE WITH
EVACUATIONS. BUSES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING PICKUP POINTS:
BACLIFF COMMUNITY CENTER: 4500 10TH STREET...BACLIFF...77518
DICKINSON COMMUNITY CENTER: 2417 HWY 3...DICKINSON...77539
HITCHCOCK LIBRARY...8005 BARRY AVENUE...HITCHCOCK...77563
CRYSTAL BEACH ANNEX...941 NOBLE CARL DRIVE...CRYSTAL BEACH...
77650
CITIZENS SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO
EVACUATE...PLEASE REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND
IMPORTANT PAPERS.
THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.
SCHOOL CLOSINGS...THE FOLLOWING SCHOOL DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH ISLAND...HITCHCOCK...SANTA FE...CLEAR
CREEK...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON AND DICKINSON. THE FOLLOWING
DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY...LA MARQUE AND TEXAS CITY.
THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE
TO THE PENINSULA.
UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH HOSPITAL IN GALVESTON MAY
BEGIN A COMPLETE EVACUATION OF THE HOSPITAL FACILITIES THIS
MORNING. THE EMERGENCY ROOM WILL STAY OPEN.
HARRIS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP
CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586...
77598 AND 77507.
PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR HARRIS COUNTY GOVERNMENT WORKERS...ESSENTIAL WORKERS ONLY
REPORT ON FRIDAY.
FOR RESIDENTS IN THE MANDATORY EVACUATION ZIP ZONES WHO HAVE
SPECIAL NEEDS AND ARE NOT REGISTERED...PLEASE CALL 311.
THERE WILL BE NO TRASH SERVICE ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED
HIGH WINDS.
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES IS SUSPENDING FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY
AIRPORT BEGINNING AT 9 AM TODAY.
JACKSON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A
PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR
PET. IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT
A SEPARATE FACILITY.
BE SURE TO START YOUR EVACUATION WITH A FULL TANK OF GAS.
IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318. YOU SHOULD COME TO THE BAY CITY
SERVICE CENTER OR KC HALL IN PALACIOS.
RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO
THE SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES
TO OPEN SHELTERS.
ALL SCHOOLS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY.
PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL ALSO BE CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
15TH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDE LEVELS AS OF 900 AM CDT:
PLEASURE PIER - 7.5 FEET
SAN LUIS PASS - 6.3 FEET
NORTH JETTY - 6.2 FEET
MORGANS POINT - 4.0 FEET
EAGLE POINT - 4.7 FEET
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 3.8 FEET
ROLLOVER PASS - 3.7 FEET
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL - 4.0 FEET
PORT O`CONNOR - 3.2 FEET
WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 3 AM SATURDAY AS THE STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO
THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AERAS. AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAY BEGIN TO
SEE A SLOW DROP AFTER 3 TO 5 AM. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN
THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET
MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 6 FEET
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...2 TO 5 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...12 TO 15 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND
INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......15 TO 20 FEET
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 25 FEET
LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
BAYSHORE AREAS!
NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY
RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE
DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY.
NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE
WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF.
WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND.
COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE
DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION.
DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
HIGH TIDE TIMES:
MORGANS POINT...
FRI 2:52 PM.
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
FRI 10:36 AM.
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT...
FRI 8:25 AM.
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR...
FRI 1:52 PM.
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
FRI 1:38 PM.
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
FRI 12:32 PM.
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH...
FRI 7:09 AM.
FRI 4:16 PM.
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS...
FRI 1:29 PM.
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT...
FRI 12:54 PM.
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR...
FRI 10:15 AM.
SAT 2:01 PM.
NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
...WINDS...
PERSONS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN
A WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
POORLY-BUILT STRUCTURES SHOULD EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH
AS A WELL BUILT HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD
CONSIDER EVACUATING AS WINDS CAN BE STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH
RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL.
THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE ARE UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY 8 TO 10 AM FRIDAY...AND SPREAD
INLAND TO THE HOUSTON AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 3 PM FRIDAY.
WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL THEN POSSIBLY
LAST ABOUT 24 HOURS.
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF IKE THE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY EVENING ON
FRIDAY AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA 9 TO 11 PM FRIDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 10 TO 12 HOURS.
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 95 TO 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.
VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND TAKES EFFECT AT 6 AM
THOUGH RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE MORE SPOTTY BUT WILL
EXPAND AND INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE.
YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 AM CDT.
$$
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Ike is like you sitting and drinking out of a straw from your pop. Ike has made a sort of straw out of some of his winds and his internal pressure is low enough that he is lifting water in that straw up 10-20 ish feet. WHOLLY ASIDE from the water his winds are pushing along to his lee.
PRAYERS are about all the good citizens who stayed have left. I'm saying some, and going out and clearing MY yard of blowable "stuff" this afternoon.
But Chuck, you live in CLEVELAND and this is in GALVESTON, WTF,O? Ike is scheduled to hit Lake Erie as a Tropical Depression, as a TRACKABLE Tropical Depression.....which means 35-50 mph winds with gusts above.....
If you live in Houston I'm prayin for ya. WE can expect to deal with local flooding up HERE from what is left of Ike.
PRAYERS are about all the good citizens who stayed have left. I'm saying some, and going out and clearing MY yard of blowable "stuff" this afternoon.
But Chuck, you live in CLEVELAND and this is in GALVESTON, WTF,O? Ike is scheduled to hit Lake Erie as a Tropical Depression, as a TRACKABLE Tropical Depression.....which means 35-50 mph winds with gusts above.....
If you live in Houston I'm prayin for ya. WE can expect to deal with local flooding up HERE from what is left of Ike.
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
SOME of you follow the ASI Hotspots e-mail notices. Here is the story from them on the storm:
- Status