WEATHER Hurricane Ike Daily Thread, Friday/ 9-12-08

[twincougars]

[FONT=Verdana, arial]
EmergencyEmail.org [/FONT]

HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A NWS TPC/NHC MIAMI FL AL092008 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHES ....

AT 1 PM CDT ...1800 UTC ...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER ... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

AT 100 PM CDT ...1800Z ...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES ...270 KM ...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES ...430 KM ...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY ...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK ...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER ...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE ...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH ...165 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE ...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS ...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS ...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM ...FROM THE CENTER ...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES ...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB ...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO NEAR 25 FEET ...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA ...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION ...27.4 N ...93.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NHC AT 400 PM CDT.

FOREC

 

[twincougars]

New Orleans; note flooding across hwy.

powered by VueTOO

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, sans-serif] New Orleans - I-10 @ Jefferson Davis Pkwy. [/FONT]

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​

 

[sassy]

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html
[4 local channels on same screen - BE SURE to MUTE because they all sound off]

http://tx.scanamerica.us/index.php?county=Galveston (click on Galveston area)
[police and rescue scanner]

 

[summerthyme]

KHOU says there's 150 people needing to be rescued on Galveston. The rescue helicopters have only rescued 20+ so far as they can only take around 3 per trip. Once the winds pick up, they can't fly in to get them any more. Scary situation getting worse by the minute.

Amazed... that absolutely infuriates me... this damned thing is still twelve hours out, there was a MANDATORY evac order (with some of the strongest language I've ever seen in a weather report/evac notice) and these morons (and I'm sorry, but I'm going to stand by that description) "chose" to exercise their free will (their right) and ignore all common sense and STAY.

And then, a few hours later, reality starts to sink in, and they're costing tens of thousands of dollars each to save their sorry asses.

I DO understand all of the issues... financial, property losses, pets, you name it. But... what part of DEAD do they not understand? ANYTHING else can be replaced. Lives... they're gone forever.

Summerthyme

 

[Usually Curious]

Summerthyme,

I hope they're given the bill for their rescue!

 

[NWPhotog]

Ike's winds

Ike's winds
An oil rig in Ike's path measured sustained winds of 125 mph, at 6:45 am CDT. Lower winds of 105 mph were occurring at the surface, since the rig is at an elevation of 400 feet. The Hurricane Hunters are still reporting maximum winds of 105 mph over a large region of the surface.




Air Temperature: 82° F / 28° C
Humidity: 87
Wind direction (W Dir): SE (135 - 144 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 91.4 kts (105.2 mph / 169.2 km/h)
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 28.58 in / 968 hPa

 

[NWPhotog]

A restaurant on the seawall in galveston

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/thespot/home.htm

surf cam

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/surfcam/home.htm

 

[Amazed]

I agree summerthyme. There are a few details though that give me a little sympathy for some of them. Apparently a lot of people could not get released from work yesterday until the city officially ordered the employers to let them go. By the time they fought their way through horrendous traffic to get home to pick up children, pets and essential supplies, it was very late and the streets were jammed. They decided to wait and leave this morning. They never expected the waters to raise so far so early before the storm was to hit. They got stranded.

There's one elderly couple that I fear for. They were late evacuating because they own a towing company and stayed to make sure everyone got out. Then they were all packed to leave when their home suddenly became surrounded by water too deep for the tow truck to get through. They are too elderly to climb on the roof to be rescued and so are forced to ride out the storm. I pray they got drinking water before the city shut the water off. They are quite religious and say they can only pray to be kept safe by the grace of God.

Then there's an old guy who absolutely refuses to leave his home facing the water. Says he's going to sit on his front porch and watch the storm come in. I think he is in mortal danger but maybe that's how he wants to go.

I won't even go into the hurricane party bunch at some bar or the exchange students who refused because they want to see the storm.

 

[Mixin]

I saw it announced on tv this afternoon they were not going to evacuate the prisoners in Galveston due to security issues.

 

[mole]

Is anybody watching FOX news? They have a live camera feed of these idiots at a beach bar called the PoopDeck riding out the storm in bathing suits, drinking and yukking it up for the camera. The commentator was just saying that these are some of the people that will be expecting to be rescued and putting the lives of first responders in jeopardy because of their stupidity. (my commentary in italics)

They are supposed to be interviewing the bartender shortly.....

I wonder what part of "certain death" they don't understand??????????????

 

[NWPhotog]

Coast Guard Air Rescue

http://www.khou.com/video/news-index.html?nvid=282005&shu=1

 

[night driver]

Anyone got any 10 or 12 meter storm coms freqs?????

 

[Beach]

Is anybody watching FOX news? They have a live camera feed of these idiots at a beach bar called the PoopDeck riding out the storm in bathing suits, drinking and yukking it up for the camera. The commentator was just saying that these are some of the people that will be expecting to be rescued and putting the lives of first responders in jeopardy because of their stupidity.

They are supposed to be interviewing the bartender shortly.....

I wonder what part of "certain death" they don't understand??????????????

Call me a kook if you want, but when I look at the images of the waves crashing into the seawall...my mind sees blood in the water. I think (and pray I'm wrong) the death toll will be very significant. Signs are the direct hit will be Freeport, probably worst case scenario for Galveston.

 

[Speckled Trout1]

Summerthyme,

I hope they're given the bill for their rescue!

That will never happen - when you live your whole life by the government entitling you to anything you want at the taxpayers expense, then you think that you are entitled to stay and party if you want, and if a problem develops then you are entitled to be rescued by the same government at the taxpayers expense. The flip side is personal responsibility for your actions, but that also is not going to happen. What part of "face certain death" didn't they understand?

 

[Chartreuse]

Then there's an old guy who absolutely refuses to leave his home facing the water. Says he's going to sit on his front porch and watch the storm come in. I think he is in mortal danger but maybe that's how he wants to go.

Sounds like Harry Truman and Mt. St. Helens:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/mountsthelens/hary11.shtml

 

[penumbra]

Just saw on CNN that people who have chosen to stay in mandatory evacuation areas have been told to write their SS# on their arm.

 

[doctor_fungcool]

http://www.shetline.com/java/moonphase/moonphase.html

This storm hits during a full moon. Does anyone know how much higher the tides are during full moon?

 

[Beach]

http://www.shetline.com/java/moonphase/moonphase.html

This storm hits during a full moon. Does anyone know how much higher the tides are during full moon?

Normally the difference between the low and high tide in that area is less than a foot.

 

[Beach]

40% of the Galveston population did NOT evacuate! That leaves about 22,000 people there.

 

[night driver]

If they were SERIOUS they would have them write it on their TORSO rather than removable arms....

 

[Echo 5]

CNN says it's 24,000 people. Just found out my boss has family there. They won't leave. Yikes.

 

[Beach]

If they were SERIOUS they would have them write it on their TORSO rather than removable arms....

And they would have handed out Sharpies.

 

[onetimer]

I put the 4 cnn video feeds and the 4 Houston news stations on one page http://64.143.101.243/tmp/CNN-Houston-VideoFeeds.html they all start muted.

Enjoy

 

[SassyinAZ]

Galveston did open a shelter of last resort for those remaining at the school but only 150 peeps in it.

ETA: Oh yeah, local coverage again on DirectTV 361.

 

[Oilpatch Hand]

Is anybody watching FOX news? They have a live camera feed of these idiots at a beach bar called the PoopDeck riding out the storm in bathing suits, drinking and yukking it up for the camera. The commentator was just saying that these are some of the people that will be expecting to be rescued and putting the lives of first responders in jeopardy because of their stupidity. (my commentary in italics)

They are supposed to be interviewing the bartender shortly.....

I wonder what part of "certain death" they don't understand??????????????

Local TV coverage showed a bar in Bacliff (west shore of Galveston Bay, where a 20' storm surge is expected...that's 20' in addition to the tides and any wind-driven wave action). Some drunk chick at the bar said they were going to ride it out.

It didn't seem to occur to any of the bar patrons that if they rode this storm out, they would be doing so under at least 10' or so of water.

In a few days, relief workers will probably find those folks who had been hanging around at the bar a few miles inland, drowned and bloated. It's really kind of sad.

I'm even getting concerned for the news media in the storm surge area, since escape routes are being cut off by the encroaching gulf waters by the hour. One local reporter was hanging around the Kemah Boardwalk, watching the water rise. Her escape routes are limited, and all of them are subject to inundation.

 

[Tigerlily]

Cool, onetime. Thanks!

 

[MtnGal]

ETA: Oh yeah, local coverage again on DirectTV 361.

Thanks SassyinAZ

 

[Oilpatch Hand]

I'm watching the local feed from KPRC (Channel 2). I myself can't ever remember seeing waves crashing over the seawall onto the pavement of Seawall Boulevard. (Then again, I don't spend that much time in Galveston.)

The water has risen 9 to 10 feet on Galveston Island. By city ordinance, all dwellings have to have the main living quarters a minimum of 8 feet above ground level. If the storm surge is 20 feet, a lot of people on the island are going to get wet.

They're showing pictures of Bayshore Blvd. in San Leon, a city on Galveston Bay, on the mainland part of Galveston County. The street was dry 30 minutes ago. There's a foot and a half of water running over the road now.

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTUS84 KLCH 122126
HLSLCH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE`S FURY AIMED AT THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST...

.AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR
12 MPH. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE BUT
COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...A MAJOR HURRICANE.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS... ARE LIKELY ON
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS
TO NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST
OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN
5 FEET ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES
LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAZ051>054-130330-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAMERON-IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION-
426 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

IKE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...HEADING TOWARD
THE GALVESTON.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR VERMILION PARISH:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14
INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF ERATH AND DELCAMBRE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PARISH IS UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.

FOR IBERIA PARISH:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THOSE LIVING SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 675. THE REMAINDER OF THE PARISH
IS UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.

FOR SAINT MARY:
VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THOSE LIVING SOUTH OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY INCLUDING CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT AND
SOUTH OF THE RAILROAD IN FRANKLIN. SHELTER HAS BEEN SET UP IN
FRANKLIN FOR EVACUEES. THOSE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEEK SHELTER.

FOR CAMERON PARISH:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

CAMERON:

STORM SURGE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED
VERTICAL WATER RISE...FROM 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER
DATUM...IS EXPECTED BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BATTERING WAVES ATOP
THE HIGH WATER WILL CAUSE FURTHER DAMAGE. LA 82 AND LA 27 WILL BE
UNDERWATER. AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 FEET OF WATER WILL COVER THE STREETS
IN DOWNTOWN CAMERON. LOW LYING AREAS OF GRAND LAKE AND HACKBERRY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME ROADS COULD SEE AROUND 7 FEET
OF WATER OVER THEM.

SEVERE FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN CAMERON PARISH.

THE STORM SURGE WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE WATER
LEVELS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE RITA.

VERMILION...IBERIA AND ST.MARY:

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ITS ASSOCIATED VERTICAL WATER RISE ACROSS IBERIA AND ST. MARY
PARISHES WILL BE AROUND 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER DATUM.

ITS ASSOCIATED VERTICAL WATER RISE ACROSS VERMILION PARISH WILL BE
AROUND 12 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER DATUM.

THE STORM SURGE WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THESE WATER LEVELS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE RITA.

ACROSS VERMILION PARISH...MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY WILL BE FLOODED...INCLUDING INTRACOASTAL CITY AND PECAN
ISLAND. FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR UP TO HIGHWAY 335...AFFECTING
THE COMMUNITIES OF COW ISLAND...FORKED ISLAND...ESTHER...HENRY...
AND DELCAMBRE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED AROUND VERMILION BAY.

ACROSS IBERIA PARISH...MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LA 14 AND US 90 WILL
EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING...CUTTING OFF WEEKS ISLAND.

ACROSS ST. MARY PARISH...BURNS POINT...CYPREMORT POINT...AND MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL FLOOD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF...PERHAPS FOR MORE THAN A WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MADE WORSE BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL
EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH
EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

...WINDS...

CAMERON:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH WILL
PREVAIL...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DECREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY NOON.

VERMILION/IBERIA/ST. MARY:
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IS BEING REPORTED.


...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FALLS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
PERCENT FOR CAMERON.

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FALLS BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT FOR CAMERON.

THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
ACROSS VERMILION...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES.

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FALLS BETWEEN 70 AND
80 PERCENT ACROSS SAINT MARY...VERMILION... AND IBERIA PARISHES.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADO WATCH 898 IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 PM FRIDAY.


$$

 

[Red Baron]

Large smoke plume emanating from near the Yacht Club on Galveston Island.

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

 

[NoThing]

updated

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/f9_8_0.html

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 122030
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE'S FURY AIMED AT THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...
EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...27.7 N...93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 122031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE
WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE
ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART
TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH
TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS
THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER
LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.7N 93.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 96.0W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 35.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1800Z 38.5N 89.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

[Jarhead]

Tracking and surge maps......

 

[Jarhead]

Wind Swath Forecast Updated: 5 pm EDT/4 pm CDT September 12, 2008

 

[onetimer]

Large smoke plume emanating from near the Yacht Club on Galveston Island.

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/stream.pl?username=david.drummond&uid=17

video with map

 

[Jarhead]

Storm-Centered Satellite Image

Image Updated: 9:29 PM GMT on September 12, 2008

 

[Red Baron]

Large smoke plume emanating from near the Yacht Club on Galveston Island.

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

Boat storage facility on fire at the east end of Galveston Island.

Reporter on the scene saying there are two 500 gallon fuel tanks at the boat storage facility.

Thick black smoke pouring over nearby hospital.

New video showing thick black smoke and flames burning brightly

 

[SassyinAZ]

Galveston did open a shelter of last resort for those remaining at the school but only 150 peeps in it.

ETA: Oh yeah, local coverage again on DirectTV 361.

Just read that high school is in the center of Galveston 6-8 blocks from the seawall, oh my!

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTUS84 KHGX 122123
HLSHGX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY AS IKE APPROACHES...

AT 400 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT
COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

TXZ200-213-214-235>238-132130-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
423 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

CHANGED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION.
CHANGED WINDS...TORNADOES...AND INLAND FLOODING SECTIONS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE MANDATORY EVACUATION AREAS WHO HAVE NOT
EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A WELL BUILT
STRUCTURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM.

MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH RISE BUILDINGS WILL NOT BE SAFE FOR
SHELTERING. WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER AT THE
TOP OF A HIGH RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL.

THE CITY OF GALVESTON HAS ESTABLISHED A SHELTER OF LAST RESORT AT
BALL HIGH SCHOOL AT 4115 AVENUE O IN GALVESTON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

WIND SPEEDS REPORTED AT 330 PM-400 PM:

SEA RIM STATE PARK - SUSTAINED 40 KNOTS GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS
ROLLOVER PASS - SUSTAINED 32 KNOTS GUSTS TO 42 KNOTS
NORTH JETTY - SUSTAINED 34 KNOTS GUSTS TO 44 KNOTS
EAGLE POINT - SUSTAINED 29 KNOTS GUSTS TO 38 KNOTS
PLEASURE PIER - SUSTAINED 23 KNOTS GUSTS TO 31 KNOTS
FREEPORT - SUSTAINED 30 KNOTS GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
PORT O`CONNOR - SUSTAINED 23 KNOTS GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS
GALVESTON - SUSTAINED 24 KNOTS GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS

ANAHUAC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE - SUSTAINED 26 MPH GUSTS TO 41 MPH
ANGLETON - SUSTAINED 23 MPH GUSTS TO 39 MPH
HOUSTON HOBBY - SUSTAINED 25 MPH GUSTS TO 32 MPH
PALACIOS - SUSTAINED 30 MPH GUSTS TO 37 MPH

TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 300-330 PM CDT:

ROLLOVER PASS - 6.4 FEET
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 5.9 FEET
MORGANS POINT - 6.4 FEET
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 5.6 FEET
EAGLE POINT - 7.2 FEET
NORTH JETTY - 8.1 FEET
PIER 21 - 7.8 FEET
PLEASURE PIER - 9.1 FEET
FREEPORT - 7.4 FEET
PORT O`CONNOR - 4.0 FEET

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE
STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES
OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET

GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 13 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 6 FEET

SEVERE INUNDATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYSHORE
AREAS!

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY. VEHICLES LEFT
BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-
STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE
PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING
THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE
YEARS TO REPAIR.

HIGH TIDE TIMES:

MORGANS POINT...
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT...
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR...
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH...
FRI 4:16 PM.
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS...
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT...
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR...
SAT 2:01 PM.

NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

...WINDS...

THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE HOUSTON METRO AREA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL LAST UP TO
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST 7 TO 10 HOURS.

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF
THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.

...INLAND FLOODING...

STORM SURGE INDUCED FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE FOLLOWING WATERSHEDS:
CLEAR CREEK BELOW BAY AREA BOULEVARD
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU
LOWER CEDAR BAYOU
LOWER GOOSE CREEK
LOWER SAN JACINTO RIVER
ALL OF TAYLOR BAYOU
LOWER ARMAND BAYOU
BRAYS BAYOU BELOW INTERSTATE 45

A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST FORK OF THE SAN JACINTO
RIVER AT SHELDON WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND BAYOUS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ONTO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10
TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. YOU
SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 630 PM CDT.

$$