WEATHER Hurricane Ike Daily Thread, Friday/ 9-12-08

[Jarhead]

000
WTUS84 KEWX 121522
HLSEWX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1022 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE HEADED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

.AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 480 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT
195 MILES...320 KM ...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE SOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...
MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...
445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

TXZ193-194-209-223>225-121930-
/O.CON.KEWX.TI.W.0001.080913T0000Z-080914T0000Z/
BASTROP-LEE-FAYETTE-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
1022 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
BASTROP...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA AND LEE COUNTIES
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BASTROP...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA AND LEE COUNTIES SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. POORLY CONSTRUCTED
HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. A FEW
HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. A FEW
POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED. UNSECURED
LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL
DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE
DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE
UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. NUMEROUS SMALL
TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 39 TO 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IKE MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY.


...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NO LATER THAN 2 PM CDT.

$$

 

[Jarhead]

Ike's record storm surge pushing into Texas

Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:22 AM EDT on September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time.
Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita.
The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike.
According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively.
As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules.
This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.


The forecast
Ike's small inner eyewall has completely collapsed, leaving Ike with no eyewall. Creation of a new eyewall is being hampered by some dry air to the storm's west, and the presence of about 10 knots of wind shear. However, Ike is beginning to look better organized on satellite imagery, and may still intensify by 5-10 mph before landfall. Ike will not inflict extreme wind damage like Katrina's or Rita's. The big story with Ike will be the storm surge.

Ike's winds
An oil rig in Ike's path measured sustained winds of 125 mph, at 6:45 am CDT. Lower winds of 105 mph were occurring at the surface, since the rig is at an elevation of 400 feet. The Hurricane Hunters are still reporting maximum winds of 105 mph over a large region of the surface.

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, storm tides along the Mississippi coast peaked at about 6 feet above normal yesterday, with a 7 foot storm tide observed on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. At 9 am CDT, storm tides of 5-6 feet were being seen in western Louisiana, and were 4.5 feet at Freeport, Texas, and 5 feet at Galveston. According to the latest NWS forecast from the Galveston office, we can expect the following storm surges in Texas:

Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent... 4 to 6 feet

Shoreline of Matagorda Bay... 2 to 5 feet

Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass... 12 to 15 feet

Gulf-facing coastline San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Island... ... 15 to 20 feet

Shoreline of Galveston Bay...15 to 25 feet

NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 27-30 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.
The exact track of Ike is key in determining if Galveston's 17-foot sea wall gets overtopped, flooding the city. A slight wobble 30 miles to the north of Galveston would put the city into offshore winds from Ike, possibly saving it from inundation. The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border.
The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

Ike's winds in Houston and inland
Winds in the Houston metro area will increase to tropical storm force--39 mph--by about 4 pm CDT today, and remain that strong for about 24 hours. Category 1 hurricane force winds of about 75-85 mph will affect the city for about an 8-hour period from midnight to 8 am on Saturday. People in well-built homes will suffer only minor damage, but mobile homes and homes not build to code will suffer significant damage.
The extremely long duration of the hurricane force winds will cause much greater damage than is typical for a hurricane of this strength.

Winds and damage in Houston should will be slightly greater than was experienced during Hurricane Alicia of 1983. Alica had higher winds at landfall, but was a smaller storm that weakened relatively quickly inland. Ike's damage will cover a much wider area and spread farther inland, due to the large size of the storm. During Alicia, Houston Hobby Airport on the south side of the city recorded top winds of 89 mph, gusting to 99 mph.
The strongest winds recorded at Houston International Airport, on the north side of the city, were 51 mph, gusting to 78 mph. Winds from Ike will probably be sustained at 85-90 mph at Houston Hobby, and 75-80 mph at Houston International Airport.

A good guess on what kind of winds inland areas will experience can be had by using the Inland Wind Model developed by NOAA scientists Mark DeMaria and John Kaplan. This simple model shows the expected winds inland from the coast for the five Category hurricanes moving at different speeds. Plotted below (Figure 2) is the inland wind model plot that best fits the type of winds I expect will penetrate inland from Ike.
I think Ike will be a strong Category 2 hurricane moving at about 15 mph at landfall, but the hurricane's strongest winds will penetrate farther inland than is typical due to the huge size of the storm. Thus, I picked a slightly stronger storm with a higher forward speed to base my inland wind estimate on. I expect hurricane force winds of 74 mph will penetrate about 110 miles inland, near the cities of Huntsville and Livingston to the north of Galveston, and not quite reaching Lufkin. We can expect Ike to cause the largest and longest-lived power outage in Texas history, with power knocked out along a 200-mile wide swath in eastern Texas and extreme western Louisiana extending 300 miles inland to I-20.
Dallas will be at the fringe of the region of widespread power outages, and should not suffer major power failures.

Tornadoes from Ike
Texas hurricanes have a history of producing strong tornadoes. Hurricane Alica spawned 23 tornadoes when it hit, including one strong F2 tornado. Hurricane Carla of 1961 unleashed 26 tornadoes, including the only violent F4 tornado ever spawned by a hurricane. The tornado hit Galveston, killing between 6 and 12 people.

Rain
Heavy rain from Ike will be the least of Texas' concerns, since the hurricane is not expected to stall, and will move quickly northwards out of the state by Sunday. The latest NOAA/HPC rain forecast predicts the swath of heaviest rains of six inches or more will cover an area about 100 miles square.

For more information
I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Jeff Masters



Figure 1. Experimental wind field analysis for Ike at 9:30 am EDT 09/12/08. The area of hurricane force winds is inside the heavy black line where the yellow color begins (64 knots). The area of tropical storm force winds is inside the heavy black line at 35 knots (turquoise colors). The total Integrated Kinetic Energy was 149 Terajoules, which makes Ike's storm surge potential a 5.4 on a scale of 1 to 6. Image credit: NOAA Hurricane Research Division.




Figure 2. Inland penetration of tropical storm and hurricane force winds from a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds moving perpendicular to the Gulf Coast at a forward speed of 17 mph. Image credit: NOAA.

 

[Jarhead]

Model Track Forecast

 

[Jarhead]

Just an Update. Galveston City has turned off the water to the island to prevent any salt water incursion. No water in Galveston! (except for the waters from Ike, that is)

Jarhead

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTUS84 KSHV 121551
HLSSHV

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE IKE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

IKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST AND TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE OUTER FEEDER BANDS
FROM IKE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY ANYWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

TXZ149-152-165>167-122300-
/O.CON.KSHV.TI.W.0002.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
/O.CON.KSHV.HI.A.0001.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
CHEROKEE-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF DEEP EAST TEXAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A HURRICANE WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
CHEROKEE...NACOGDOCHES...ANGELINA... SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SABINE
COUNTIES IN TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE SAME AREAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 1000 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES EAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...AND ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 954 MB.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SQUALLS.

A HURRICANE WIND WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH
AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED...AS THEY CAN
EASILY BECOME PROJECTILES IN HIGH WINDS. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF
GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST
IN CASE.

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE PROLONGED
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...AND
DAMAGE BUILDINGS AND HOMES. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...UPROOTED TREES WILL BE COMMON.

...WINDS...

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS MEANS WINDS OF 60 TO
75 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 90 MILES AN HOUR COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.

...INLAND FLOODING...

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PATH OF IKE.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS IN
FEEDER BANDS AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IKE MOVES NORTHWARD. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO
STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER AS ANY TORNADOES THAT FORM CAN DEVELOP
VERY RAPIDLY AND WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 400 PM CDT.

$$

 

[night driver]

You start comparing storms to Camille (see graph previous page) or Carla and saying the current storm is stronger and going to be more damaging than them I sit up and take notice...

I ALSO take notice when the forecast track looks like Agnes, which this one does.....

Ike is going to visit personally, destruction of some kind, on almost all of us East of the Rockies. And then there will be the gasoline problems......

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTUS84 KLIX 121549
HLSLIX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO
THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND THE PARISHES SURROUNDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS.

AT 1000 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 195 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT
COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

GMZ530-555-LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-122000-
/O.CON.KLIX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO
THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND THE PARISHES SURROUNDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS.

AT 1000 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 195 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT
COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 1 PM CDT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPAREDNESS MEASURES SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED BY THIS
TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND AT TIMES SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. HIGH TIDES AND SALT WATER INUNDATION IS TAKING PLACE
OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE LEVEE PROTECTION SYSTEM.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDES ARE HOLDING 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INCLUDING THE PARISHES SURROUNDING LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY OVER THE
EAST FACING SHORES OF ORLEANS...ST. BERNARD...AND PLAQUEMINES
PARISH BEFORE RECEDING ON SATURDAY. STARTING TONIGHT...TIDE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY RECEDING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. ON LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS...TIDE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING TO LEVELS 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. FLOODING OF
COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING ACCESS ROADS...OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE
PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO
OCCUR AROUND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN BACK BAYS
AND BAYOUS. FLOODING MAY BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT TIMES OF
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS TODAY.

...WINDS...

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA TIDAL LAKES...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY IN SQUALLS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE LOUISIANA TIDAL
LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. A FEW HOMES MAY
RECEIVE MOSTLY MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING.
UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND
LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND
SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SOME WEAKER SMALL TREES AND
LARGE BRANCHES MAY SNAP.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SQUALLS AND STORM
CELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 200 PM CDT.

$$

 

[Amazed]

Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time.

Galveston spokesperson estimates about half of residents have evacuated. Galveston has about 58,000 residents??

Galveston City has turned off the water to the island to prevent any salt water incursion. No water in Galveston!

So over 20,000 did NOT evacuate? I just don't get it. Sounds like a death wish to me. I pray there are no little children that must depend on the good sense of their parents left here.

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTUS84 KFWD 121610
HLSFWD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE IKE TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS...

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE
HURRICANE WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
HOUSTON TO PALESTINE TO PARIS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

TXZ135-147-148-162-175-122215-
/O.UPG.KFWD.TI.W.0001.080913T0800Z-080914T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.HI.W.0001.080913T0600Z-080914T0600Z/
HENDERSON-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LEON-ROBERTSON-
1110 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
CDT SUNDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1
AM SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CAMERON TO ATHENS LINE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH
AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED. POWER OUTAGES MAY
BE POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES... A FULL TANK OF
GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST
IN CASE.

THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES IN THE HURRICANE WIND
WARNING AREA SHOULD EVACUATE TO A PERMANENT STRUCTURE. CONSULT
LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR SHELTER LOCATIONS.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH WILL OCCUR.

BE PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES...AND SOME STRUCTURE DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...INLAND FLOODING...

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES
ON CREEKS AND STREAMS AND RESULT IN FLOODING.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER SQUALLS OF
THE OUTER RAINBANDS. RESIDENTS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL BE AROUND 4 PM.

$$

 

[penumbra]

I was watching the Weather Channel a minute ago. Jim Cantore is in Galveston. He said that residents can still leave, but he thinks the road should have already been closed due to overwash. Galveston is already flooding. Mike Sidel is at another beach town that has no seawall, and the whole island is already flooded, with the storm being 12 hours from shore. Mike also stated that the worst of it would be at approximately 3 am at high tide.

 

[Jarhead]

Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, September 12, 2008 1200 pm EDT

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike:
From this point-on, I highly doubt there will be much, if any changes in the forecast track of Ike. As of 11 am Eastern/10 am Central Time, Ike was positioned near 27.2 North Latitude, 92.6 West Longitude or about 195 miles southeast of Galveston Texas. Ike is expected to track between west-northwest and northwest right through landfall and this will bring the center of Ike very near, if not right over Galveston and then Ike will track up the west side of Galveston Bay and pretty much right over Houston. Landfall time appears to be around 3 am Eastern/2 am Central Time early Saturday morning.
I still think Ike will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of 115 to 125 mph. In fact, reconnaissance aircraft indicates wind speeds of 132 mph at just 750 feet above ground level and 146 mph winds at 1500 feet above ground level.
Also, the Hurricane Research Division has rated the wind and surge Destructive Potential Rating on a scale of 0 to 6 as a 3.4 for wind and a 5.4 for surge!!
I did notice a 131 mph flight level wind which would translate to about 110 to 115 mph at the surface. So, I do think Ike will be a Category 3 upon landfall.
So, to sum it up as of the midday hour: Ike is expected to make landfall very near, if not directly over Galveston as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 to 125 mph winds around 3 am Eastern/2 am Central Time early Saturday morning.
Storm Surge Forecast: Water levels will continue to rise very rapidly this afternoon through tonight and into the early morning hours of Saturday as the storm surge spreads onto the coast and Bayshore areas.
Maximum Storm Surge Forecast:
Texas:
Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent, including Matagorda Bay: 4 to 9 Feet.
Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass, including Freeport: 12 to 15 Feet.
Gulf-facing coastline San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Island and High Island: 15 to 21 Feet.
Shoreline of Galveston Bay: 15 to 25 Feet And Possibly Higher.
Louisiana:
Coastal Cameron Parish: 15 to 18 Feet.
Coastal Vermilion, Iberia and St. Mary Parishes: 12 to 15 Feet.
Coastal Terrebonne Parish: 9 to 12 Feet.
Coastal Southeast Louisiana, including New Orleans: 4 to 9 Feet.
Mississippi coast: 4 to 8 Feet.
Alabama and Florida Panhandle: 3 to 6 Feet.

I also wanted to note that NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast is calling for a 10% chance that the storm surge from Ike will reach 27 to 30 feet on the south and east sides of Houston. The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries.

Life threatening storm surge flooding is likely!!!

All neighborhoods and possibly entire coastal communities will be severely flooded during the period of peak storm surge. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face life threatening flooding and may loose their life.
Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away by the water. Numerous roads will be swamped, some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff.
Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage, with massive destruction of homes, including those of block construction.
For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

Wind Forecast:
It is imperative that persons who live in mobile homes or poorly-built structures should evacuate immediately to a safer location such as a well built home. Persons who live in high rises should strongly consider evacuating immediately as winds can be much stronger at the top of a high rise than at ground level.
The wind field surrounding Ike is very large in size. Tropical storm force winds in excess of 40 mph are now crossing the Texas Coast and will continue spreading inland reaching the Houston-Metro area within the next couple of hours. Winds of at least tropical storm force are expected to last for up to 24 to 30 hours straight.
Hurricane force winds will reach the Texas coast early this evening and then spread inland reaching the Houston Metro area between 9 and 11 pm tonight. Hurricane force winds will then last for up to 12 hours straight.
Peak wind gusts of 100 to 115 mph is forecast across Harris, Liberty, Brazoria, Galveston and Chambers counties. Wind speeds in excess of 115 mph will be possible near where the center of the storm ultimately comes onshore.

As for the Houston Metro area: Winds and damage in Houston should will be slightly greater than was experienced during Hurricane Alicia of 1983.
Alica had higher winds at landfall, but was a smaller storm that weakened relatively quickly inland. Ike's damage will cover a much wider area and spread farther inland, due to the large size of the storm.
During Alicia, Houston Hobby Airport on the south side of the city recorded top winds of 89 mph, gusting to 99 mph. The strongest winds recorded at Houston International Airport, on the north side of the city, were 51 mph, gusting to 78 mph. Winds from Ike will probably be sustained at 85-90 mph at Houston Hobby, and 75-80 mph at Houston International Airport.

Structural damage will include the majority of mobile homes being severely damaged or destroyed. Those that survive will be uninhabitable until repaired. Houses of poor to average construction will have major damage, including partial wall collapse and roofs being lifted off. Many will be uninhabitable. Well constructed houses will incur minor damage to shingles, siding, gutters, as well as blown out windows. Up to one quarter of gabled roofs will fail.
Partial roof failure is expected at Industrial Parks, especially to those buildings with light weight steel and aluminum coverings.
Older low rising apartment roofs may also be torn off, as well as receiving siding and shingle damage. Up to one quarter of all glass in high rise office buildings will be blown out. Airborne debris will cause damage, injury and possible fatalities.

Natural damage will include all trees with rotting bases becoming uprooted or snapped. Nearly all large branches will snap. Between one quarter and one half of healthy small to medium sized trees will be snapped or uprooted, most common where the ground is saturated. Up to three quarters of newly planted ground crops will be damaged.

Inland Flooding:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches with isolated rainfall totals of 10 to 12 inches will be possible today through Saturday along the path of Ike. Significant river and stream flooding is possible in areas of heaviest rainfall.
Tornado Threat:
The threat for tornadoes will increase rapidly beginning late today and continue through late Saturday as Ike moves onshore. If a Tornado Warning is issued for your location, you should plan to seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor away from windows.

This is a very large hurricane in overall size. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles from the center of the storm and hurricane force winds extend outward up to 120 miles from the center of the storm. Ike's very strong winds, heavy rainfall and the threat for tornadoes will extend well inland due to the hurricane's accelerating speed at landfall. Damaging hurricane force winds are possible as far inland as 100 to 150 miles from the coast, roughly along and east of Interstate 45.
Cities like Huntsville and Livingston to the north of Galveston will see hurricane force winds. Tropical storm force winds will likely extend inland to Dallas, Tyler, Shreveport and quite possibly into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. It is very possible that Ike could cause widespread power outages over a 200 mile wide swath in eastern Texas and extreme western Louisiana and extending 300 miles inland to Interstate 20. Dallas may end up at the fringe of the region of widespread power outages, and should not suffer major power failures.

In conclusion, this is a VERY DANGEROUS hurricane. A Category 3 hurricane is forecast to make landfall very near Galveston, Texas around 3 am Eastern/2 am Central Time early Saturday morning. A large and destructive storm surge of up to 25 Feet will cross the middle and upper Texas coast.
The next update on Hurricane Ike will be issued by 8 pm EDT/7 pm CDT This Evening.

Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services

 

[Jarhead]

Coast Guard rescuing 20-50 people from rooftops in the Bolivar(Sp??) peninsula. 2-6 feet of water over the peninsula...

Jarhead

 

[penumbra]

The extremely long duration of the hurricane force winds will cause much greater damage than is typical for a hurricane of this strength.

This can really not be overstated. When Ophelia blew through here a few years ago She was barely a hurricane. However, she sat right over us for a whole day. the damage was amazing. blew windows out of hotels, and a lot of roof damage. Buildings cannot sustain winds for such a long period of time.

 

[Echo 5]

Seems to me this is getting way worse way sooner than expected.

 

[dimensiondancer]

Coast Guard rescuing 20-50 people from rooftops in the Balavor(Sp??) peninsula. 2-6 feet of water over the peninsula...

Jarhead

It's over across the ferry from east Galveston, where Crystal Beach is. All homes on stilts on the beach -no protection whatsover, further down is Rollover Pass. I tell you, I had to evacuate that way once because I stayed in Crystal Beach, front row in a minor tropical storm. The house rocked like a cradle. Rollover Pass will take you into Beaumont - Port Arthur.

It pronounced Bull-a-var peninsula, it's spelled strange and I don't remember how.

Bolivar peninsula makes West Galveston look buff in comparison.

 

[NoThing]

Hurricane Ike, Energy Infrastructure, Refineries and Damage Models Thread #4 (Updated 9/12 11:20 EDT)
Posted by Nate Hagens on September 12, 2008 - 10:15am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: Chuck Watson, gustav, henry hub, Hurricane Ike, ike, loop, louisiana offshore oil port, methaz, oil, oil infrastructure, original, peak oil, refineries, refining, shut-in production, storm surge [list all tags]

Hurricane Ike's current track currently is headed directly for Houston/Galveston and is expected by the National Hurricane Center to be Category 3 at Saturday landfall, which remains in striking distance of over 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (A little perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL). Also, the MMS reported Wednesday that staff has been evacuated from 452 production platforms (63.0%) and 81 rigs (66.9%) – (95.9% of the oil production and 73.1% of the natural gas production has been shut-in as a precautionary measure for Hurricane Ike.) Updated 9/12 11:20 EDT.

Image link... http://www.theoildrum.com/

 

[Jarhead]

Dupe... sorry

 

[NoThing]

http://www.rigzone.com/news/hurricanes/ike.asp

 

[Jarhead]

More on that ship adrift in the GOM

Freight Ship Carrying 22 People Stranded Off Galveston in Path of Hurricane Ike

GALVESTON, Texas — Twenty-two men aboard a 584-foot freighter adrift in the Gulf of Mexico faced riding out Hurricane Ike if the situation remained too dangerous for a rescue attempt, the Coast Guard said Friday.

Chief Petty Officer Mike O'Berry initially said stormy seas would prevent Coast Guard aircraft or vessels from reaching the ship about 90 miles southeast of Galveston. Category 2 Ike's 105-mph winds could cause 50-foot waves, the Coast Guard said.

But by mid-morning Friday, Petty Officer Tom Atkeson said the Coast Guard was looking at the range of the assets it had to safely get to the vessel to rescue the crew, if necessary.

"The limitations were what we had in the area at the time. Now we're looking at seeing what we can get out there, possibly in a range to assist them," Atkeson said. He did not elaborate on what aircraft the Coast Guard would need.

The Coast Guard is in constant communication with the ship via Marine radio, said Atkeson, who identified the vessel as the Antalina.

The freighter is registered out of Cyprus and owned by Perovo Shipping Ltd. The freighter's operator is TEO Shipping Corp., according to Atkeson.

There was no indication that the ship was taking on water, Atkeson said.

"We don't have any information from the crew that that's the case," Atkeson told The Associated Press. "They've lost propulsion and steering" and were drifting southwest.

The Coast Guard at 4:17 a.m. CDT Friday received a radio distress call from the vessel.

Ike's eye was forecast to strike somewhere near Galveston late Friday, but the massive system was already buffeting Texas and Louisiana.

The National Weather Service warned residents of smaller structures on Galveston they could "face certain death" if they ignored an order to evacuate; most had complied.

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTUS84 KHGX 121632 CCA
HLSHGX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TIDES INCREASING ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH THE APPROACH
OF IKE...

AT 1000 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR 195 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE SOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

TXZ200-213-214-235>238-131630-
/O.COR.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
1124 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS SECTION.
UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION.
UPDATED WINDS...INLAND FLOODING...AND TORNADOES SECTIONS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:

BRAZORIA COUNTY:

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL...
AND ANGLETON.

CHAMBERS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.

GALVESTON COUNTY:

POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA...
OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND...
KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.

SCHOOL CLOSINGS...THE FOLLOWING SCHOOL DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH ISLAND...HITCHCOCK...SANTA FE...CLEAR
CREEK...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON AND DICKINSON. THE FOLLOWING
DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY...LA MARQUE AND TEXAS CITY.

THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE
TO THE PENINSULA.

HARRIS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP
CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586...
77598 AND 77507.

PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR HARRIS COUNTY GOVERNMENT WORKERS...ESSENTIAL WORKERS ONLY
REPORT ON FRIDAY.

FOR RESIDENTS IN THE MANDATORY EVACUATION ZIP ZONES WHO HAVE
SPECIAL NEEDS AND ARE NOT REGISTERED...PLEASE CALL 311.

THERE WILL BE NO TRASH SERVICE ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED
HIGH WINDS.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES IS SUSPENDING FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY
AIRPORT BEGINNING AT 9 AM TODAY.

JACKSON COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

ALL SCHOOLS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY.
PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL ALSO BE CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
15TH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 1030-1100 AM CDT:
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 4.2 FEET
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 4.0 FEET
ROLLOVER PASS - 4.5 FEET
EAGLE POINT - 5.2 FEET
MORGANS POINT - 4.5 FEET
NORTH JETTY - 6.8 FEET
PIER 21 - 6.4 FEET
PLEASURE PIER - 8.3 FEET
FREEPORT - 6.6 FEET
PORT O`CONNOR - 3.3 FEET

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES
OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 5 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 14 FEET

GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET

BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
BAYSHORE AREAS!

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES FACE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEATH.
MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL
BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE
IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT
AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY
THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF.
WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND.
COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE
DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION.
DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

HIGH TIDE TIMES:

MORGANS POINT...
FRI 2:52 PM.
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT...
FRI 8:25 AM.
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR...
FRI 1:52 PM.
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
FRI 1:38 PM.
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
FRI 12:32 PM.
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH...
FRI 4:16 PM.
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS...
FRI 1:29 PM.
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT...
FRI 12:54 PM.
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR...
SAT 2:01 PM.

NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

...WINDS...

PERSONS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN
A WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
POORLY-BUILT STRUCTURES SHOULD EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH
AS A WELL BUILT HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD
CONSIDER EVACUATING AS WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER
AT THE TOP OF A HIGH RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL.

THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE
HOUSTON AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL
STORM FORCE MAY LAST UP TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH AND WILL REACH THE
COASTAL COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CDT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 12 HOURS.

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF
THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.

...INLAND FLOODING...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ONTO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10
TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. YOU SHOULD
PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 PM CDT.

$$

 

[lafrteacher]

The power went off here for a few hours this morning when a squall line went through.

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTUS84 KCRP 121650
HLSCRP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1150 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE GETS CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST...

.AT 1000 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES EAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
TEXAS.

IKE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. BASED UPON THIS PROJECTED TRACK...
THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 105 MPH WHICH MAKES IKE A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
954 MILLIBARS OR 28.17 INCHES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-122300-
/O.CON.KCRP.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
1150 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

STORM INFORMATION: AT 1000 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295
MILES EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN BY THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT O`CONNOR
TO BAFFIN BAY.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O`CONNOR.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL THE NECESSARY
PREPARATIONS. BOATS SHOULD EITHER BE SECURELY FASTENED OR REMOVED
FROM THE WATER ALTOGETHER. ANY LOOSE OBJECTS ON DECK SHOULD BE
STORED IN A SAFE AND SECURE LOCATION. ALL CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO
REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH SATURDAY.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 700 PM THIS EVENING AND 400 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE RUNNING 10 TO 15 FEET
NEARSHORE...15 TO 20 FEET OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 20 TO 30 FEET TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200 PM CDT.

$$

 

[Jarhead]

37,000 may need to be rescued after Ike, military official says

HOUSTON, Texas (CNN) -- The U.S. Coast Guard on Friday morning began helicopter rescues of up to 50 residents on the Texas coast, and a U.S. military official told CNN that 37,000 people may need to be rescued after Hurricane Ike strikes.

The Coast Guard airlifted people and their pets from their cars and homes on the Bolivar Peninsula, a narrow stretch of land that separates the Gulf of Mexico from Galveston Bay, as the wind and rain from Hurricane Ike slapped the Texas coast.

Texas has asked for help, and the active-duty military has 42 search-and-rescue helicopters on standby, the official said.

The guard issued a statement saying "Coast Guard Air Station Houston launched a HH-65C rescue helicopter and crew to airlift and transport approximately 22 to 50 people" who had called authorities for help.

There had been warnings for residents to evacuate beforehand, and Chief Petty Officer Michael O'Berry, interviewed by CNN, was asked why they didn't get out in time. Watch Ike begin to spill water into Texas »

He said he believes these residents "didn't understand, I guess, the strength of the storm. As it came about, they realized it's a lot stronger than they may have anticipated."

Coast Guard officials also said 22 people were on board a 584-foot freighter that was adrift in the Gulf of Mexico and caught in the path of hard-charging Hurricane Ike.

Coast Guard officials said the best way to respond to the incident might be to let the storm push it to shallow water where it can drop anchor.

The freighter had been headed south from Port Arthur, Texas, and is loaded with petroleum coke -- a petroleum byproduct.

The Coast Guard said in a news release it received a distress call around 4 a.m. from the Antalina, a Cypriot-flagged freighter. It said the vessel had "lost main propulsion 90 miles southeast of Galveston" and was unable to steer.

Coast Guard Capt. Bill Diehl said the freighter had been "in the direct line of the path of the storm and lost its engines."

Coast Guard Petty Officer Thomas Blue told CNN that officials are still weighing their options, but "we're getting to the point where the wind gusts are too high to launch our helicopter."

The guard also said in the news release that its ability to respond is "extremely limited" because the helicopters had been "prestaged for post-hurricane response" and because of "the proximity of the Antalina to Hurricane Ike."

"The best case scenario is that Hurricane Ike pushes this freighter up into shallow water where they can drop anchor and ride out the storm," Blue said.


Taking all 22 people off the ship would eliminate the chance of dropping anchor, leaving the ship to drift.

He said the Coast Guard is keeping radio communications with the freighter, and its news release said the Coast Guard is in hourly contact with the crew.

CNN's Mike Ahlers, Jeanne Meserve and Barbara Starr contributed to this report

 

[Lilbitsnana]

I'm reading on another forum that CNN says 20,000 people still on Galveston Island, TWC says 30,000 people still on the island...I didn't hear any of that, but if true, I would expect to see the death toll to be twice as high as the 1900 Hurricane.

I don't know whether to be angry or cry.

 

[TIK]

Sorry to intrude on this...I guess I finally woke up. Believe it or not, I'm not in Kansas anymore...I mean, Southern California anymore. I'm actually typing this from Belleville, Illinois, a pleasant little city just on the Illinois side of St. Louis, MO. I'm reading these storm tracks as putting Ike literally on top of this city by Sunday morning. Am I correct? And...does that mean most likely that I will NOT be able to fly back home out of St. Louis International by Sunday morning? Just curious if anyone can comment and give me some direction...

And I'm back here on some business in case anyone is curious as to why I'm not safe and dry in Southern California right now.

Thank you!!

 

[Jarhead]

Image Updated: 4:59 PM GMT on September 12, 2008

 

[Jarhead]

TIK.... here ya go..

Point Forecast: Belleville IL
38.55N -90.01W (Elev. 548 ft)

This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. East wind around 6 mph.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind around 8 mph.

Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind between 9 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 67. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 76. North wind between 8 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 75.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-131115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
649 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PROUDUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE MOVE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION ON A LIMITED BASIS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

 

[NoThing]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/f9_8_0.html

 

[Lilbitsnana]

I'm reading on another forum that CNN says 20,000 people still on Galveston Island, TWC says 30,000 people still on the island...I didn't hear any of that, but if true, I would expect to see the death toll to be twice as high as the 1900 Hurricane.

I don't know whether to be angry or cry.

On the same forum mentioned above, someone just posted that only 10-15% of the population of Galveston died in the 1900 storm.

That might explain why so many people stayed, if they knew those statistics? So, the death toll might not end up as bad as I had feared. One can only hope and pray.

 

[NoThing]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/f7_8_0.html

 

[adgal]

Sorry to intrude on this...I guess I finally woke up. Believe it or not, I'm not in Kansas anymore...I mean, Southern California anymore. I'm actually typing this from Belleville, Illinois, a pleasant little city just on the Illinois side of St. Louis, MO. I'm reading these storm tracks as putting Ike literally on top of this city by Sunday morning. Am I correct? And...does that mean most likely that I will NOT be able to fly back home out of St. Louis International by Sunday morning? Just curious if anyone can comment and give me some direction...

And I'm back here on some business in case anyone is curious as to why I'm not safe and dry in Southern California right now.

Thank you!!

Hey, TIK, welcome to Illinois!! Looks like St. Louis is expected to have heavy rain on Saturday into Sunday - but clearing by Sunday night.
Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind between 9 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 66. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 75. North wind between 8 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE
IKE APPROACHES....

AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF
PORT ARANSAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270
MILES...430 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N...93.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

[Jarhead]

Tracking....

 

[Red Baron]

Sorry to intrude on this...I guess I finally woke up. Believe it or not, I'm not in Kansas anymore...I mean, Southern California anymore. I'm actually typing this from Belleville, Illinois, a pleasant little city just on the Illinois side of St. Louis, MO. I'm reading these storm tracks as putting Ike literally on top of this city by Sunday morning. Am I correct? And...does that mean most likely that I will NOT be able to fly back home out of St. Louis International by Sunday morning? Just curious if anyone can comment and give me some direction...

And I'm back here on some business in case anyone is curious as to why I'm not safe and dry in Southern California right now.

Thank you!!

Welcome to the Midwest!

You should be OK. Some heavy rain and a scattered T-Storm shouldn't have a great effect on flight operations. Especially take offs can occur during stormy weather. Landings need better weather than takeoffs.

It may be a bumpy ride however until you get up to altitude.

That's what they make Martini's for!

 

[seraphima]

There's a good discussion over at the Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com about the possible impacts Ike may have on the shoreline refineries clustered near Houston.

Here's a snippet:" Peak wave heights are in the 30-40 ft range across the entire GoM lease areas. These are within the range modern equipment can handle, however, as with Gustav, some of the older platforms with 35ft air gaps may have damage, but the newer deep water stuff should be OK. We will probably permanently lose 2-3% production as these older platforms will not be replaced. Overall, despite losing most of September production, by the end of October we should be back to 75%+ and offshore production should recover to 90-95% by the end of the year.

The key question is refinery damage. Storm surge flooding is definitely the big risk. If the storm center makes landfall on or north of Galveston, the peak surges will be north of the main refineries. In fact the latest WRF run puts the peaks over Port Arthur (attached). There is a lot of infrastructure out there. Current models are showing that there will be at least 1 MMBBL offline for 30 days, with the potential for 5 MMBBL offline at 30 days and 4 MMBBL at 60 days, 1 to 2 MMBBL out through the end of the year. That would certainly cause significant shortages of refined products (e.g., gasoline)."

Got gas? If you are forecasting gasoline prices, looks like up is going to be the way it goes!

 

[mole]

wow, jarhead, your weather powers are phenomenal! I whined late yesterday about it tracking directly over us and dumping more rain on my poor miserable soul, and today it has danced just enough west to not fly over our rooftop. considering myself mightily blessed this day!

everyone in this monster's path - and I do mean monster - stay safe! prayers continue...........

 

[Jonas Parker]

TXZ149-152-165>167-122300-
/O.CON.KSHV.TI.W.0002.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
/O.CON.KSHV.HI.A.0001.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
CHEROKEE-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF DEEP EAST TEXAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A HURRICANE WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
CHEROKEE...NACOGDOCHES...ANGELINA... SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SABINE
COUNTIES IN TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE SAME AREAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 1000 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES EAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...AND ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 954 MB.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SQUALLS.

A HURRICANE WIND WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH
AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED...AS THEY CAN
EASILY BECOME PROJECTILES IN HIGH WINDS. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF
GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST
IN CASE.

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE PROLONGED
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...AND
DAMAGE BUILDINGS AND HOMES. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...UPROOTED TREES WILL BE COMMON.

...WINDS...

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS MEANS WINDS OF 60 TO
75 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 90 MILES AN HOUR COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.

...INLAND FLOODING...

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PATH OF IKE.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS IN
FEEDER BANDS AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IKE MOVES NORTHWARD. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO
STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER AS ANY TORNADOES THAT FORM CAN DEVELOP
VERY RAPIDLY AND WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 400 PM CDT.

TXZ149-152-165>167-122300-
/O.CON.KSHV.TI.W.0002.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
/O.CON.KSHV.HI.A.0001.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
CHEROKEE-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF DEEP EAST TEXAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A HURRICANE WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
CHEROKEE...NACOGDOCHES...ANGELINA... SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SABINE
COUNTIES IN TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE SAME AREAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 1000 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES EAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...AND ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 954 MB.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SQUALLS.

A HURRICANE WIND WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH
AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED...AS THEY CAN
EASILY BECOME PROJECTILES IN HIGH WINDS. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF
GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST
IN CASE.

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE PROLONGED
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...AND
DAMAGE BUILDINGS AND HOMES. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...UPROOTED TREES WILL BE COMMON.

...WINDS...

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS MEANS WINDS OF 60 TO
75 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 90 MILES AN HOUR COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.

...INLAND FLOODING...

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PATH OF IKE.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS IN
FEEDER BANDS AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IKE MOVES NORTHWARD. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO
STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER AS ANY TORNADOES THAT FORM CAN DEVELOP
VERY RAPIDLY AND WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 400 PM CDT.

 

[Amazed]

KHOU says there's 150 people needing to be rescued on Galveston. The rescue helicopters have only rescued 20+ so far as they can only take around 3 per trip. Once the winds pick up, they can't fly in to get them any more. Scary situation getting worse by the minute.

 

[Chartreuse]

KHOU says there's 150 people needing to be rescued on Galveston. The rescue helicopters have only rescued 20+ so far as they can only take around 3 per trip. Once the winds pick up, they can't fly in to get them any more. Scary situation getting worse by the minute.

Oh geez...and from the satellite photos it looks like the outer bands of the storm are already there. Even this morning on the news they had footage of water already rising and some pretty huge waves.

If I had a really solid, hurricane-proofed home on high ground, I could understand staying, but when you're down near the water why would you risk it?

 

[twincougars]

Ike situation page; multiple maps, reports, videos

http://www.vuetoo.com/vue1/SituationPageNews.asp?sit=2190