WAR trouble brewing again in ukraine
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Seeker22
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I have said this before, but it bears repeating: The Russians are the leading researchers on the GSM (Grand Solar Minimum, or Ice Age to non-scientific folks). They need the Ukraine for a lot of reasons not the least of which is growing as absolute much food as humanly possible and laying it back for time of need when there will be no way to grow food, between now and the time the GSM locks in Winter for good. Ukraine is the bread basket and always and ever was.
jward
passin' thru
Ukraine Might Field A Drone Strike Force—And It Could Knock Out Russian Tanks
David Axe
Forbes Staff
Aerospace & Defense
I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
Capture from video released by the Azerbaijan ministry of defense depicting a drone strike on ... [+]
Azerbaijan ministry of defense capture via Sebastien Roblin/Forbes
The Ukrainian air force hasn’t acquired a new manned warplane since 1991. Its 125 Cold War-vintage fighters, attack planes and combat helicopters are old and getting older—and the air force with its $300-million-a-year budget simply can’t afford to replace them.
Nor should it replace them, advised Tom Cooper, an independent aviation expert.
Huge numbers of modern Russian warplanes are just a short flight away. Russian surface-to-air missiles are so close they could target Ukraine’s aircraft while they’re taking off. For Kiev, buying new manned warplanes is “neither economic, nor makes sense,” Cooper said.
Instead, the Ukrainian air force should convert to drones and loitering munitions, Cooper said. In the event of a major war, Ukraine’s robots could swarm Russian army formations, overwhelming air-defense systems and knocking out tanks and other vehicles.
The brief, bloody war between Armenia and Azerbaijan last fall could offer a preview of a possible Ukrainian drone campaign. During fighting over long-disputed territory in the so-called “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”—an Armenian-majority region that many countries recognize as belonging to Azerbaijan—Azerbaijan’s Turkish and Israeli drones and loitering munitions wreaked havoc on Armenian forces.
MORE FOR YOU
The Pentagon Fears That Deadly Microwave Weapons Are Undetectable
The U.S. Air Force Just Admitted The F-35 Stealth Fighter Has Failed
Ukraine’s Fighter Jets Are Near The End Of The Line—It Should Turn To Drones And Missiles Instead
High-flying, Turkish-made Bayraktar Tactical Block 2 drones firing tiny missiles, plus two kinds of loitering munitions—Israeli-made Harops and Orbiter-1Ks—destroyed hundreds of Armenian tanks, fighting vehicles, artillery pieces and air-defense systems.
Azeri forces surged into the gaps, capturing much of the NKR ahead of the November ceasefire.
Ukraine could adopt Azerbaijan’s organization and tactics. Indeed, there are signs that transformation already is underway. The open question, of course, is to what extent Kiev will commit to drone air power—and how effectively Moscow might counter that move.
The 1,400-pound, propeller-drive TB2—a kind of Turkish mini-Predator costing around $1 million—is the backbone of Azerbaijan’s drone strike force. Ukraine in 2019 began buying dozens of TB2s from Turkish firm Baykar. Kiev and Ankara in December signed a deal allowing Ukrainian industry to make its own copies of the TB2.
The Ukrainian military last fall organized its first field trials with the new drones.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian industry is developing loitering munitions—in essence, tiny, self-propelled drones packing warheads with the explosive force of a mortar shell. A loitering munition flies lazy circles over a battlefield until it detects a viable target—then zooms down to attack.
The hardware is available. Only time will tell if Kiev is serious about acquiring, integrating and deploying it.
It’s equally unclear how Russia might respond. Cooper for one claimed Moscow’s surface-to-air missile systems can’t defeat swarms of drones and munitions.
“Sure, these have multi-target engagement capability and lots of reloads—and the Russians are currently doing their best to make them capable of countering such small targets,” Cooper said.
“However, they can’t outmatch the latest generation of Western weapons. So, in worst case, their SAMs would be easy to run dry.” Ukrainian troops could deploy so many drones and loitering munitions—and add unarmed decoy ‘bots to the mix, too—that there simply would be more targets than Russian missiles. “Even the Russians can’t just go on reloading forever.”
Russian forces could try jamming the radio links between Ukraine’s drones and their operators.
All that is to say, Moscow might need new and better air-defenses and jammers. If Ukraine goes all in on drones, Russia might have to go all in on defenses against drones.
Ukraine Might Field A Drone Strike Force—And It Could Knock Out Russian Tanks
Follow me on Twitter. Check out my website or some of my other work here. Send me a secure tip.
David Axe
Forbes Staff
Aerospace & Defense
I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
Capture from video released by the Azerbaijan ministry of defense depicting a drone strike on ... [+]
Azerbaijan ministry of defense capture via Sebastien Roblin/Forbes
The Ukrainian air force hasn’t acquired a new manned warplane since 1991. Its 125 Cold War-vintage fighters, attack planes and combat helicopters are old and getting older—and the air force with its $300-million-a-year budget simply can’t afford to replace them.
Nor should it replace them, advised Tom Cooper, an independent aviation expert.
Huge numbers of modern Russian warplanes are just a short flight away. Russian surface-to-air missiles are so close they could target Ukraine’s aircraft while they’re taking off. For Kiev, buying new manned warplanes is “neither economic, nor makes sense,” Cooper said.
Instead, the Ukrainian air force should convert to drones and loitering munitions, Cooper said. In the event of a major war, Ukraine’s robots could swarm Russian army formations, overwhelming air-defense systems and knocking out tanks and other vehicles.
The brief, bloody war between Armenia and Azerbaijan last fall could offer a preview of a possible Ukrainian drone campaign. During fighting over long-disputed territory in the so-called “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”—an Armenian-majority region that many countries recognize as belonging to Azerbaijan—Azerbaijan’s Turkish and Israeli drones and loitering munitions wreaked havoc on Armenian forces.
MORE FOR YOU
The Pentagon Fears That Deadly Microwave Weapons Are Undetectable
The U.S. Air Force Just Admitted The F-35 Stealth Fighter Has Failed
Ukraine’s Fighter Jets Are Near The End Of The Line—It Should Turn To Drones And Missiles Instead
High-flying, Turkish-made Bayraktar Tactical Block 2 drones firing tiny missiles, plus two kinds of loitering munitions—Israeli-made Harops and Orbiter-1Ks—destroyed hundreds of Armenian tanks, fighting vehicles, artillery pieces and air-defense systems.
Azeri forces surged into the gaps, capturing much of the NKR ahead of the November ceasefire.
Ukraine could adopt Azerbaijan’s organization and tactics. Indeed, there are signs that transformation already is underway. The open question, of course, is to what extent Kiev will commit to drone air power—and how effectively Moscow might counter that move.
The 1,400-pound, propeller-drive TB2—a kind of Turkish mini-Predator costing around $1 million—is the backbone of Azerbaijan’s drone strike force. Ukraine in 2019 began buying dozens of TB2s from Turkish firm Baykar. Kiev and Ankara in December signed a deal allowing Ukrainian industry to make its own copies of the TB2.
The Ukrainian military last fall organized its first field trials with the new drones.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian industry is developing loitering munitions—in essence, tiny, self-propelled drones packing warheads with the explosive force of a mortar shell. A loitering munition flies lazy circles over a battlefield until it detects a viable target—then zooms down to attack.
The hardware is available. Only time will tell if Kiev is serious about acquiring, integrating and deploying it.
It’s equally unclear how Russia might respond. Cooper for one claimed Moscow’s surface-to-air missile systems can’t defeat swarms of drones and munitions.
“Sure, these have multi-target engagement capability and lots of reloads—and the Russians are currently doing their best to make them capable of countering such small targets,” Cooper said.
“However, they can’t outmatch the latest generation of Western weapons. So, in worst case, their SAMs would be easy to run dry.” Ukrainian troops could deploy so many drones and loitering munitions—and add unarmed decoy ‘bots to the mix, too—that there simply would be more targets than Russian missiles. “Even the Russians can’t just go on reloading forever.”
Russian forces could try jamming the radio links between Ukraine’s drones and their operators.
All that is to say, Moscow might need new and better air-defenses and jammers. If Ukraine goes all in on drones, Russia might have to go all in on defenses against drones.
Ukraine Might Field A Drone Strike Force—And It Could Knock Out Russian Tanks
Follow me on Twitter. Check out my website or some of my other work here. Send me a secure tip.
Blue 5
Veteran Member
On my way to work here on Knox I noticed that 840AM (WHAS) became fuzzier (a static-y buzzing) the closer I got to the base today. First time I can ever recall that happening. Normally it's the opposite, since the station is in Louisville and I'm heading toward it when going to work.
AlfaMan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I use a Blackberry passport phone as my GPS as well. I turned off the cell tower triangulation in it so the GPS fixes I get are straight from the satellites. Spoofing GPS in my area has been pretty bad this week.
AlfaMan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
AlfaMan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
The chernozem soil in the Ukraine is the most fertile soil in Europe. The Russians consider the Ukraine as part of the Rodina-it's a matter of national pride as well as national feeding for them wanting it back. The Ukraine is definitely land worth fighting over.
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
I encourage you to reread Dave Axe's article above. He is EVERY BIT as well wired in as Tyler Rogoway and Trevithick
AlfaMan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I'm pulling for the every day Ivans and Ivankas in the Ukraine. While I love the Russian people, Vladimir Putin is nothing more than a 21st century apparachik with dreams of past Soviet glories dancing in his bald little head. Putin wants to become Lenin for the new generations.
They suffered terribly for generations at the hands of the Soviets; I support Ukraine. It's their country and the Russians have no part in their national destiny. I'm not thrilled with Ukranian leaders either, but it's their country and right or wrong, the Ukranians should set the course of their future, not the Soviet/Russian govt. They sucked the lifeblood out of that country for generations; enough is enough.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Putin to Erdogan: "Do not violate the Treaty of Montreux" - Red alert in Britain - Sounds of war sirens in Donetsk AKAM of the USA on the Ukrainian front with the emblem "Ukraine or death"
Columnist: Vasilis Kapoulas
WarNews 247
April 9 2021
Developments are accelerating following the US decision to send warships to the Black Sea in support of Ukraine. Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, made a personal intervention to Erdogan in order to comply with the Montreux Treaty at this time.
This is terrifying news as the Russians talk of a "possible violation of the Treaty" by the US.
Meanwhile British media have revealed that the British Army and Armies of Western countries are on "red alert."
All this while in Donetsk the Russians sounded the sirens of war in a test rehearsal for the start of an armed conflict.
Security Council convened by Putin
At the same time, the President of Russia convened a Security Council with the A/OHIM and the heads of the Secret Service, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Soon after, he spoke with Erdogan.
According to Reuters, Putin stressed the importance of maintaining the status of the Montreux treaty, while accusing Ukraine of provocative actions.
The Putin-Erdogan conversation took place shortly after the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced-confirmation that the US intends to send – under the Montreux Treaty – two warships to the Black Sea via the Bosphorus Strait and that they will remain in the Black Sea until May.
Putin and Erdogan talked about Syria, Donbass, Karabakh andthe Treaty of Montreux.
Russia... reminds Turkey and the USA of the Treaty of Montreux
But why did Putin himself intervene in the Montreux Treaty at the time? Putin has asked that the Americans not violate the Treaty!
And this development here is really worrying as the Russians believe that the Americans want to violate it and perhaps send aircraft carriers or cruisers to the Black Sea.
Intervention by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Shortly afterwards, the representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, intervened again on the same issue, sending a message in all directions - with particular emphasis on Turkey, but also against the background of the imminent presence of American warships in the Black Sea.
"We see this Treaty as a key factor of stability and security in the Black Sea basin, especially with regard to the navigation of warships," stressed the Russian diplomat.
'The Montreux Treaty provides for restrictions on the total tonage of warships located in the Black Sea and their countries have no coasts there, as regards their time limits for their stay and the type of equipment for certain categories of ships. It also regulates the rules for the sign-in to it. Its basic mechanism proved its effectiveness in terms of maintaining stability, ensuring security in the region, tested over time."
In a state of war alert and Britain
After France's nuclear war rehearsal and russia's nuclear alert, Britain is now on red alert.
Security sources who spoke to the Daily Mirror revealed that Whitehall commanders and top officials are on high alert as Russia is one step ahead of the war engagement.
"The Russia-Ukraine crisis could turn into a total war within days as Russia amassed 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border.
British officials are observing the crisis with great concern.
The situation is constantly being observed. We would describe it as an "ever-increasing crisis".
The deployment of Russian IS forces and equipment on the Ukrainian border has raised concern in the West. In many countries this concern is so great that they are bringing their troops to a red alert
This also applies to the British Army."
U.S. AKAM on Ukrainian front with "Ukraine or death" emblem
Representatives of the U.S. Embassy's Defense Follower office in Ukraine went to the confrontation line, where they spoke with Ukrainian soldiers.
In the uniform of the American military follower in Ukraine, Brittany Stewart, who went to the line of confrontation in Donbass, there is the slogan Ukraine or Death.
The press centre of the Operations Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (JF) published a series of photos from the visit. In some photos, the following is depicted with the badge of the 72nd motorized Brigade of the Black Zapoozes of the land army of the Ukrainian armed forces, which has a skull and the inscription "Ukraine or death".
Πούτιν σε Ερντογάν: “Nα μην παραβιάσουν οι ΗΠΑ την Συνθήκη του Μοντρέ” – Κόκκινος συναγερμός στη Βρετανία – Ηχούν σειρήνες πολέμου στο Ντονέτσκ - WarNews247
Columnist: Vasilis Kapoulas
WarNews 247
April 9 2021
Developments are accelerating following the US decision to send warships to the Black Sea in support of Ukraine. Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, made a personal intervention to Erdogan in order to comply with the Montreux Treaty at this time.
This is terrifying news as the Russians talk of a "possible violation of the Treaty" by the US.
Meanwhile British media have revealed that the British Army and Armies of Western countries are on "red alert."
All this while in Donetsk the Russians sounded the sirens of war in a test rehearsal for the start of an armed conflict.
Security Council convened by Putin
At the same time, the President of Russia convened a Security Council with the A/OHIM and the heads of the Secret Service, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Soon after, he spoke with Erdogan.
According to Reuters, Putin stressed the importance of maintaining the status of the Montreux treaty, while accusing Ukraine of provocative actions.
The Putin-Erdogan conversation took place shortly after the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced-confirmation that the US intends to send – under the Montreux Treaty – two warships to the Black Sea via the Bosphorus Strait and that they will remain in the Black Sea until May.
Putin and Erdogan talked about Syria, Donbass, Karabakh andthe Treaty of Montreux.
Russia... reminds Turkey and the USA of the Treaty of Montreux
But why did Putin himself intervene in the Montreux Treaty at the time? Putin has asked that the Americans not violate the Treaty!
And this development here is really worrying as the Russians believe that the Americans want to violate it and perhaps send aircraft carriers or cruisers to the Black Sea.
Intervention by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Shortly afterwards, the representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, intervened again on the same issue, sending a message in all directions - with particular emphasis on Turkey, but also against the background of the imminent presence of American warships in the Black Sea.
"We see this Treaty as a key factor of stability and security in the Black Sea basin, especially with regard to the navigation of warships," stressed the Russian diplomat.
'The Montreux Treaty provides for restrictions on the total tonage of warships located in the Black Sea and their countries have no coasts there, as regards their time limits for their stay and the type of equipment for certain categories of ships. It also regulates the rules for the sign-in to it. Its basic mechanism proved its effectiveness in terms of maintaining stability, ensuring security in the region, tested over time."
In a state of war alert and Britain
After France's nuclear war rehearsal and russia's nuclear alert, Britain is now on red alert.
Security sources who spoke to the Daily Mirror revealed that Whitehall commanders and top officials are on high alert as Russia is one step ahead of the war engagement.
"The Russia-Ukraine crisis could turn into a total war within days as Russia amassed 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border.
British officials are observing the crisis with great concern.
The situation is constantly being observed. We would describe it as an "ever-increasing crisis".
The deployment of Russian IS forces and equipment on the Ukrainian border has raised concern in the West. In many countries this concern is so great that they are bringing their troops to a red alert
This also applies to the British Army."
U.S. AKAM on Ukrainian front with "Ukraine or death" emblem
Representatives of the U.S. Embassy's Defense Follower office in Ukraine went to the confrontation line, where they spoke with Ukrainian soldiers.
In the uniform of the American military follower in Ukraine, Brittany Stewart, who went to the line of confrontation in Donbass, there is the slogan Ukraine or Death.
The press centre of the Operations Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (JF) published a series of photos from the visit. In some photos, the following is depicted with the badge of the 72nd motorized Brigade of the Black Zapoozes of the land army of the Ukrainian armed forces, which has a skull and the inscription "Ukraine or death".
Πούτιν σε Ερντογάν: “Nα μην παραβιάσουν οι ΗΠΑ την Συνθήκη του Μοντρέ” – Κόκκινος συναγερμός στη Βρετανία – Ηχούν σειρήνες πολέμου στο Ντονέτσκ - WarNews247
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into war in days as UK commanders on 'high alert'
EXCLUSIVE: Sources told the Daily Mirror UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials are on 'high alert' with the usual calming voices describing Russian forces as appearing to be on a war-footing
By Chris Hughes Defence and Security Editor
Daily Mirror UK
Senior Ukraine military sources fear Moscow’s war-planners may have wrong-footed Kiev by being far more battle-ready for a major land and sea attack than previously suspected.
Until recently Ukraine’s senior commanders calculated that if Putin orders an attack deep into East Ukraine and elsewhere it was most likely to come in mid-May.
But today Putin’s navy piled on further pressure on embattled Kiev by announcing the deployment of a war-fighting fleet towards Ukraine arriving within days.
Last night sources told the Daily Mirror UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials are on “high alert” over the crisis and are monitoring the situation “with growing concern.”
One said: “Aggressive Russian troop movements towards the border have caused a great deal of concern within the Ministry of Defence.
“The situation is being monitored constantly. I would definitely describe this as a growing crisis.”
More than ten heavily-armed Russian warships are now steaming towards the Caspian Sea from the Black Sea, armed with artillery and other weapons to back Putin’s land forces.
Russia’s Defence Ministry announced it was moving more than ten navy vessels, including landing boats and artillery warships to the Black Sea to take part in exercises.
This map shows Russia's latest movements
But western nations and Ukraine have voiced alarm over the build-up as a five strong alliance or “QUINT” of the UK, US, Canada, Lithuania and Poland allies backed Ukraine.
UK defence Secretary Ben Wallace was among the Quint which issued a statement warning Russia: “The Quint Defence Ministers are united in our unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of increased Russian military activity.
“We will work closely with Ukraine to monitor the situation and continue to call on Russia to de-escalate.”
The Russian Ministry of Defence said in a statement: “As part of the winter training check, more than 10 amphibious and artillery boats and vessels of the southern military district are conducting an inter-fleet move from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea.”
Just months ago the Daily Mirror witnessed UK paratroopers practising their biggest para-drop in decades alongside Ukrainian allies in a show of force against Russia (Image: Andy Stenning/Daily Mirror)
Russia’s Black Sea fleet is based in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
It is feared that within days more than 95,000 assault troops, backed by tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and even thermobaric rocket batteries will be ready to invade.
More trucks were arriving at the border in the past few days, many carrying rocket launching batteries but were alarmingly without number plates, indicating Moscow wants to keep their numbers as covert as possible.
The entire region has been buzzed by Moscow’s surveillance drones, indicating Moscow is trying to find weak points.
Months ago the Mirror witnessed 16th Air Assault Brigade Paratroops drop into a field near Mykoliav, Ukraine a short drive to the border with Russia (Image: Andy Stenning/Daily Mirror)
Russian troops have also been equipped with sophisticated river-crossing bridge-engineering equipment, further fuelling alarm that they may be poised to invade at multiple points.
Spetsnaz special forces and a large number of elite paratroopers are among the infantry units now massing at the Ukraine border having been sent from all over Russia.
They also have in their armoury large “psych-warfare” trucks which can blast battle-noises over the frontline to confuse the enemy and even create devastating diversions.
Tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops – including reservists- have been called up to the border and US advisers are believed to be “in country,” according to sources.
After landing, paras moved on the ground at their rendezvous points (Image: Andy Stenning/Daily Mirror)
It comes just months after the Daily Mirror witnessed UK paratroopers practising their biggest para-drop in decades alongside Ukrainian allies in a show of force against Russia.
And American intelligence assessments grade the threat of a major Russia-Ukraine flare-up as “potential imminent crisis” as stated by their European operations centre EUCOM.
War has raged along the 1,500 miles-long East Ukraine-Russia border since 2014 after the Euromaidan riots in Kiev and the overnight and lightning Russian invasion of neighbouring Crimea.
In brutal fighting, which has often returned to a trench warfare stand-off around 14,000 people are estimated to have been killed.
A member of the Pathfinders exits the back of a Hercules C130 aircraft to parachute into Ukraine (Image: Cpl Danny Houghton RLC)
The brutal frontline stand-off has been worsened for Ukraine in the east by pro-Russian rebels, aided by Moscow’s GRU military intelligence spies.
Bruce Jones, a Janes Russia expert told the Daily Mirror: “It is difficult to be too alarmist about this situation.
“Russia is giving a lot of evidence that it is pulling out all of the stops in order to be able to wage the widest possible range of hostilities against Ukraine.
“Any such conflict would present a serious challenge to the military capability and resolve of US, EU, NATO which inevitably includes the UK.”
The 16th Air Assault Brigade Paratroopers land in the field (Image: Andy Stenning/Daily Mirror)
Former commander of British forces in Afghanistan Colonel Richard Kemp said: “We have got to take this situation extremely seriously.
“Of course it might be a deception but we have to assume Russia intends to invade Ukraine.
“However my view is that this would be in a limited way to avoid a wider conflict with America.”
'Putin could get away with it - he has before'
- Analysis, by Chris Hughes, Mirror defence editor
Military bluffs and espionage have worked well for Putin in the past (Image: SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)
Just a few days ago most defence officials and experts were briefing that Russia’s troop movements were a “bluff” to test US President Joe Biden and to exploit a divided Europe.
They feel Putin believes he has to create a nationalistic stir to regain falling domestic support.
Divisions over Brexit, Covid-19 and terror threats make the time right for Russian to meddle on Europe’s doorstep.
But the usual calming voices in Whitehall are taking it extremely seriously, describing Russian forces as appearing to be on a war-footing.
Military bluffs and espionage have worked well for Putin.
He has taken huge advantage of “sub-threshold actions”, just below the justification for war but the level of military hardware and personnel thrown towards the Ukraine border is the biggest since hostilities began in 2014.
This momentum looks very much like Russian forces could launch a major offensive against Ukraine – a stated ally of the UK.
British politicians and defence chiefs have said we stand with Ukraine on this issue yet little was done when Putin annexed Crimea in 2014. “Crippling” sanctions have not stopped Russian special forces and spooks poisoning people, bombing innocents in Syria or continually breaking the rules.
The question is now not “will Putin order a full-scale invasion?” but “why would he not?”
If it is limited in its intent, it is possible he will do it and get away with it, just stopping at the line beyond which the US would go to war. He has done it before.
Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into war in days as UK commanders on 'high alert' - Mirror Online
EXCLUSIVE: Sources told the Daily Mirror UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials are on 'high alert' with the usual calming voices describing Russian forces as appearing to be on a war-footing
By Chris Hughes Defence and Security Editor
Daily Mirror UK
- 20:02, 8 APR 2021
- UPDATED21:08, 8 APR 2021
Senior Ukraine military sources fear Moscow’s war-planners may have wrong-footed Kiev by being far more battle-ready for a major land and sea attack than previously suspected.
Until recently Ukraine’s senior commanders calculated that if Putin orders an attack deep into East Ukraine and elsewhere it was most likely to come in mid-May.
But today Putin’s navy piled on further pressure on embattled Kiev by announcing the deployment of a war-fighting fleet towards Ukraine arriving within days.
Last night sources told the Daily Mirror UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials are on “high alert” over the crisis and are monitoring the situation “with growing concern.”
One said: “Aggressive Russian troop movements towards the border have caused a great deal of concern within the Ministry of Defence.
“The situation is being monitored constantly. I would definitely describe this as a growing crisis.”
More than ten heavily-armed Russian warships are now steaming towards the Caspian Sea from the Black Sea, armed with artillery and other weapons to back Putin’s land forces.
Russia’s Defence Ministry announced it was moving more than ten navy vessels, including landing boats and artillery warships to the Black Sea to take part in exercises.
This map shows Russia's latest movements
But western nations and Ukraine have voiced alarm over the build-up as a five strong alliance or “QUINT” of the UK, US, Canada, Lithuania and Poland allies backed Ukraine.
UK defence Secretary Ben Wallace was among the Quint which issued a statement warning Russia: “The Quint Defence Ministers are united in our unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of increased Russian military activity.
“We will work closely with Ukraine to monitor the situation and continue to call on Russia to de-escalate.”
The Russian Ministry of Defence said in a statement: “As part of the winter training check, more than 10 amphibious and artillery boats and vessels of the southern military district are conducting an inter-fleet move from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea.”
Just months ago the Daily Mirror witnessed UK paratroopers practising their biggest para-drop in decades alongside Ukrainian allies in a show of force against Russia (Image: Andy Stenning/Daily Mirror)
Russia’s Black Sea fleet is based in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
It is feared that within days more than 95,000 assault troops, backed by tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and even thermobaric rocket batteries will be ready to invade.
More trucks were arriving at the border in the past few days, many carrying rocket launching batteries but were alarmingly without number plates, indicating Moscow wants to keep their numbers as covert as possible.
The entire region has been buzzed by Moscow’s surveillance drones, indicating Moscow is trying to find weak points.
Months ago the Mirror witnessed 16th Air Assault Brigade Paratroops drop into a field near Mykoliav, Ukraine a short drive to the border with Russia (Image: Andy Stenning/Daily Mirror)
Russian troops have also been equipped with sophisticated river-crossing bridge-engineering equipment, further fuelling alarm that they may be poised to invade at multiple points.
Spetsnaz special forces and a large number of elite paratroopers are among the infantry units now massing at the Ukraine border having been sent from all over Russia.
They also have in their armoury large “psych-warfare” trucks which can blast battle-noises over the frontline to confuse the enemy and even create devastating diversions.
Tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops – including reservists- have been called up to the border and US advisers are believed to be “in country,” according to sources.
After landing, paras moved on the ground at their rendezvous points (Image: Andy Stenning/Daily Mirror)
It comes just months after the Daily Mirror witnessed UK paratroopers practising their biggest para-drop in decades alongside Ukrainian allies in a show of force against Russia.
And American intelligence assessments grade the threat of a major Russia-Ukraine flare-up as “potential imminent crisis” as stated by their European operations centre EUCOM.
War has raged along the 1,500 miles-long East Ukraine-Russia border since 2014 after the Euromaidan riots in Kiev and the overnight and lightning Russian invasion of neighbouring Crimea.
In brutal fighting, which has often returned to a trench warfare stand-off around 14,000 people are estimated to have been killed.
A member of the Pathfinders exits the back of a Hercules C130 aircraft to parachute into Ukraine (Image: Cpl Danny Houghton RLC)
The brutal frontline stand-off has been worsened for Ukraine in the east by pro-Russian rebels, aided by Moscow’s GRU military intelligence spies.
Bruce Jones, a Janes Russia expert told the Daily Mirror: “It is difficult to be too alarmist about this situation.
“Russia is giving a lot of evidence that it is pulling out all of the stops in order to be able to wage the widest possible range of hostilities against Ukraine.
“Any such conflict would present a serious challenge to the military capability and resolve of US, EU, NATO which inevitably includes the UK.”
The 16th Air Assault Brigade Paratroopers land in the field (Image: Andy Stenning/Daily Mirror)
Former commander of British forces in Afghanistan Colonel Richard Kemp said: “We have got to take this situation extremely seriously.
“Of course it might be a deception but we have to assume Russia intends to invade Ukraine.
“However my view is that this would be in a limited way to avoid a wider conflict with America.”
'Putin could get away with it - he has before'
- Analysis, by Chris Hughes, Mirror defence editor
Military bluffs and espionage have worked well for Putin in the past (Image: SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)
Just a few days ago most defence officials and experts were briefing that Russia’s troop movements were a “bluff” to test US President Joe Biden and to exploit a divided Europe.
They feel Putin believes he has to create a nationalistic stir to regain falling domestic support.
Divisions over Brexit, Covid-19 and terror threats make the time right for Russian to meddle on Europe’s doorstep.
But the usual calming voices in Whitehall are taking it extremely seriously, describing Russian forces as appearing to be on a war-footing.
Military bluffs and espionage have worked well for Putin.
He has taken huge advantage of “sub-threshold actions”, just below the justification for war but the level of military hardware and personnel thrown towards the Ukraine border is the biggest since hostilities began in 2014.
This momentum looks very much like Russian forces could launch a major offensive against Ukraine – a stated ally of the UK.
British politicians and defence chiefs have said we stand with Ukraine on this issue yet little was done when Putin annexed Crimea in 2014. “Crippling” sanctions have not stopped Russian special forces and spooks poisoning people, bombing innocents in Syria or continually breaking the rules.
The question is now not “will Putin order a full-scale invasion?” but “why would he not?”
If it is limited in its intent, it is possible he will do it and get away with it, just stopping at the line beyond which the US would go to war. He has done it before.
Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into war in days as UK commanders on 'high alert' - Mirror Online
Last edited:
AlfaMan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
"This momentum looks very much like Russian forces could launch a major offensive against Ukraine – a stated ally of the UK."
When Poland was invaded by the Germans in 1939, the UK was a stated ally of the Polish as well. And you can read how much "help" the Polish got from them.
Maybe things will change this time.
When Poland was invaded by the Germans in 1939, the UK was a stated ally of the Polish as well. And you can read how much "help" the Polish got from them.
Maybe things will change this time.
jward
passin' thru
EHA News
@eha_news
2m
'Escalation in Ukraine poses threat to Russia' Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov said that 'Russia fears the restart of aggression in Ukraine which would pose a threat to country's security' 'The escalation in Ukraine pushes Russia to take measures to assure its security' he said.
View: https://twitter.com/eha_news/status/1380758567226064898?s=20
@eha_news
2m
'Escalation in Ukraine poses threat to Russia' Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov said that 'Russia fears the restart of aggression in Ukraine which would pose a threat to country's security' 'The escalation in Ukraine pushes Russia to take measures to assure its security' he said.
View: https://twitter.com/eha_news/status/1380758567226064898?s=20
Hognutz
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Biden and the rest of globohomo support Ukraine, therefore I support Putin. As far as sucking the lifeblood from something just wait until The Swamp has no more use for Ukraine...
that is definitely going to be a problem.
i live in Lviv , kinda by accident, but here i am.
and every, literally, every person here absolutely F'ing HATES and fears the Russians with a passion. everyone. my landlady, musicians i play with, several GF's, kids, store keepers, everyone...
so without a massive occupation force and a new murderous NKVD, there is no way they are going to be able to take the farmland south and east of here (beautiful country going to Ivano Frankvovsk) and make use of it. people will literally destroy all their stuff rather than give it to the Russians.
i mean, there is graffiti all over the city, which has only two ncrossed out letters, the two letters which differentiates Ukrainian Cyrillic from Russian Cyrillic. all over town.
big site in town is the old prison building, now a museum, where the NKVD murdered 6,000 citizens just before the Nazi arrived in 1941.
naegling62
Veteran Member
You express a polar opposite of the view I have and also many on this forum. Your description of that position is very accurate. I enjoy reading your insights.
Either way, not my folk, not my history, not my land and not my fight.
naegling62
Veteran Member
I hope you keep us updated with events on the ground. Thank you for your input.
Henry Bowman
Veteran Member
THIS^^^
We have no skin in this game. Neither side is innocent nor does this represent a threat to me and mine ( Nor to the fine folks on the board either ) we need to follow the advise of George Washington on alliances.
Joke Biden will help to keep the Ukrainian President quiet on his and his drug addled son misdeeds.
As for the Russians, No Russian ever called me a Domestic Terrorist, The Insurgent Communist/Globalist US Government has.
The enemy of my enemy may not be my friend but i will use his distraction to my benefit should the need arise.
Seeker22
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I am in a similar situation in Texas' Southwest. When this pops off and attention is elsewhere, I feel sure the hordes will pour across the border and the Cartels will wrest power from the current governments on both sides of it, or make the attempt. The country is beautiful and full of Spring wildflowers and many birds and animals. The land is fertile and has fed us well for many years.
I thank you for letting me see how it is there. You are in my prayers. What you face this time will make the Holodomor seem tame.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Escobar: Ukraine Redux - War, Russophobia, & Pipelineistan
BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
SATURDAY, APR 10, 2021 - 07:00 AM
Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,
The deep state/NATO combo's using Kiev to start a war to bury Nord Stream 2 and German-Russian relations...
A Ukrainian serviceman walks in a fortified position at the front line with Russia-backed separatists not far away, in Avdiivka, Donetsk region, on April 5, 2021. Photo: AFP
Ukraine and Russia may be on the brink of war – with dire consequences for the whole of Eurasia. Let’s cut to the chase, and plunge head-on into the fog of war.
On March 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky, for all practical purposes, signed a declaration of war against Russia, via decree No. 117/2021.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a joint press conference with European Council President in Kiev on March 3, 2021. Photo: AFP / Sergey Dolzhenko
The decree establishes that retaking Crimea from Russia is now Kiev’s official policy. That’s exactly what prompted an array of Ukrainian battle tanks to be shipped east on flatbed rail cars, following the saturation of the Ukrainian army by the US with military equipment including unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare systems, anti-tank systems and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
More crucially, the Zelensky decree is the proof any subsequent war will have been prompted by Kiev, debunking the proverbial claims of “Russian aggression.” Crimea, since the referendum of March 2014, is part of the Russian Federation.
It was this (italics mine) de facto declaration of war, which Moscow took very seriously, that prompted the deployment of extra Russian forces to Crimea and closer to the Russian border with Donbass. Significantly, these include the crack 76th Guards Air Assault Brigade, known as the Pskov paratroopers and, according to an intel report quoted to me, capable of taking Ukraine in only six hours.
It certainly does not help that in early April US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, fresh from his former position as a board member of missile manufacturer Raytheon, called Zelensky to promise “unwavering US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.” That ties in with Moscow’s interpretation that Zelensky would never have signed his decree without a green light from Washington.
On March 8, 2021, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaks during observance of International Women’s Day in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC. Photo: AFP / Mandel Ngan
Controlling the narrative
Sevastopol, already when I visited in December 2018, is one of the most heavily defended places on the planet, impervious even to a NATO attack. In his decree, Zelensky specifically identifies Sevastopol as a prime target.
Once again, we’re back to 2014 post-Maidan unfinished business.
To contain Russia, the US deep state/NATO combo needs to control the Black Sea – which, for all practical purposes, is now a Russian lake. And to control the Black Sea, they need to “neutralize” Crimea.
If any extra proof was necessary, it was provided by Zelensky himself on Tuesday this week in a phone call with NATO secretary-general and docile puppet Jens Stoltenberg.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg gives a press conference at the end of a NATO Foreign Ministers’ meeting at the Alliance’s headquarters in Brussels on March 24, 2021. Photo: AFP / Olivier Hoslet
Zelensky uttered the key phrase: “NATO is the only way to end the war in Donbass” – which means, in practice, NATO expanding its “presence” in the Black Sea. “Such a permanent presence should be a powerful deterrent to Russia, which continues the large-scale militarization of the region and hinders merchant shipping.”
All of these crucial developments are and will continue to be invisible to global public opinion when it comes to the predominant, hegemon-controlled narrative.
The deep state/NATO combo is imprinting 24/7 that whatever happens next is due to “Russian aggression.” Even if the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) launch a blitzkrieg against the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics. (To do so against Sevastopol in Crimea would be certified mass suicide).
In the United States, Ron Paul has been one of the very few voices to state the obvious:
What’s implied is that Washington/Brussels don’t have a clear tactical, much less strategic game plan: only total narrative control.
And that is fueled by rabid Russophobia – masterfully deconstructed by the indispensable Andrei Martyanov, one of the world’s top military analysts.
A possibly hopeful sign is that on March 31, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, talked on the phone about the proverbial “issues of mutual interest.”
Days later, a Franco-German statement came out, calling on “all parties” to de-escalate. Merkel and Macron seem to have gotten the message in their videoconference with Putin – who must have subtly alluded to the effect generated by Kalibrs, Kinzhals and assorted hypersonic weapons if the going gets tough and the Europeans sanction a Kiev blitzkrieg.
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks as German Chancellor Angela Merkel looks on after a German-French Security Council video conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris, on February 5, 2021. Photo: AFP / Thibault Camus
The problem is Merkel and Macron don’t control NATO. Yet Merkel and Macron at least are fully aware that if the US/NATO combo attacks Russian forces or Russian passport holders who live in Donbass, the devastating response will target the command centers that coordinated the attacks.
What does the hegemon want?
As part of his current Energizer bunny act, Zelensky made an extra eyebrow-raising move. This past Monday, he visited Qatar with a lofty delegation and clinched a raft of deals, not circumscribed to LNG but also including direct Kiev-Doha flights; Doha leasing or buying a Black Sea port; and strong “defense/military ties” – which could be a lovely euphemism for a possible transfer of jihadis from Libya and Syria to fight Russian infidels in Donbass.
Right on cue, Zelensly meets Turkey’s Erdogan next Monday. Erdogan’s intel services run the jihadi proxies in Idlib, and dodgy Qatari funds are still part of the picture. Arguably, the Turks are already transferring those “moderate rebels” to Ukraine. Russian intel is meticulously monitoring all this activity.
A series of informed discussions – see, for instance, here and here – is converging on what may be the top three targets for the hegemon amid all this mess, short of war: to provoke an irreparable fissure between Russia and the EU, under NATO auspices; to crash the Nord Steam 2 pipeline; and to boost profits in the weapons business for the military-industral complex.
So the key question then is whether Moscow would be able to apply a Sun Tzu move short of being lured into a hot war in the Donbass.
On the ground, the outlook is grim. Denis Pushilin, one of the top leaders of the Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics, has stated that the chances of avoiding war are “extremely small.” Serbian sniper Dejan Beric – whom I met in Donetsk in 2015 and who is a certified expert on the ground – expects a Kiev attack in early May.
The extremely controversial Igor Strelkov, who may be termed an exponent of “orthodox socialism,” a sharp critic of the Kremlin’s policies who is one of the very few warlords who survived after 2014, has unequivocally stated that the only chance for peace is for the Russian army to control Ukrainian territory at least up to the Dnieper river. He stresses that a war in April is “very likely”; for Russia war “now” is better than war later; and there’s a 99% possibility that Washington will not fight for Ukraine.
On this last item at least Strelkov has a point; Washington and NATO want a war fought to the last Ukrainian.
Rostislav Ischenko, the top Russian analyst of Ukraine whom I had the pleasure of meeting in Moscow in late 2018, persuasively argues that, “the overall diplomatic, military, political, financial and economic situation powerfully requires the Kiev authorities to intensify combat operations in Donbass.
Gotta defend Europe
Let’s assume the worst in Donbass. Kiev launches its blitzkrieg. Russian intel documents everything. Moscow instantly announces it is using the full authority conferred by the UNSC to enforce the Minsk 2 ceasefire.
In what would be a matter of 8 hours or a maximum 48 hours, Russian forces smash the whole blitzkrieg apparatus to smithereens and send the Ukrainians back to their sandbox, which is approximately 75km north of the established contact zone.
In the Black Sea, incidentally, there’s no contact zone. This means Russia may send out all its advanced subs plus the surface fleet anywhere around the “Russian lake”: They are already deployed anyway.
Russian President Vladimir Putin looks on as Novator Design Bureau director-general Farid Abdrakhmanov and Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko shake hands during a signing ceremony for government contracts in Alabino, Moscow region, Russia. on June 27, 2019. Photo: AFP / Alexei Druzhinin / Sputnik
Once again Martyanov lays down the law when he predicts, referring to a group of Russian missiles developed by the Novator Design Bureau: “Crushing Ukies’ command and control system is a matter of few hours, be that near border or in the operational and strategic Uki depth. Basically speaking, the whole of the Ukrainian ‘navy’ is worth less than the salvo of 3M54 or 3M14 which will be required to sink it. I think couple of Tarantuls will be enough to finish it off in or near Odessa and then give Kiev, especially its government district, a taste of modern stand-off weapons.”
The absolutely key issue, which cannot be emphasized enough, is that Russia will not (italics mine) “invade” Ukraine. It doesn’t need to, and it doesn’t want to. What Moscow will do for sure is to support the Novorossiya people’s republics with equipment, intel, electronic warfare, control of airspace and special forces. Even a no-fly zone will not be necessary; the “message” will be clear that were a NATO fighter jet to show up near the frontline, it would be summarily shot down.
And that brings us to the open “secret” whispered only in informal dinners in Brussels, and chancelleries across Eurasia: NATO puppets do not have the balls to get into an open conflict with Russia.
One thing is to have yapping dogs like Poland, Romania, the Baltic gang and Ukraine amplified by corporate media on their “Russian aggression” script. Factually, NATO had its collective behind unceremoniously kicked in Afghanistan. It shivered when it had to fight the Serbs in the late 1990s. And in the 2010s, it did not dare fight the Damascus and Axis of Resistance forces.
When all fails, myth prevails. Enter the US Army occupying parts of Europe to “defend” it against – who else? – those pesky Russians.
That’s the rationale behind the annual US Army DEFENDER-Europe 21, now on till the end of June, mobilizing 28,000 soldiers from the US and 25 NATO allies and “partners.”
This month, men and heavy equipment pre-positioned in three US Army depots in Italy, Germany and the Netherlands will be transferred to multiple “training areas” in 12 countries. Oh, the joys of travel, no lockdown in an open air exercise since everyone has been fully vaccinated against Covid-19.
Pipelineistan uber alles
Nord Stream 2 is not a big deal for Moscow; it’s a Pipelineistan inconvenience at best. After all the Russian economy did not make a single ruble out of the not yet existent pipeline during the 2010s – and still it did fine. If NS2 is canceled, there are plans on the table to redirect the bulk of Russian gas shipments towards Eurasia, especially China.
Connecting German infrastructure for Nord Stream 2 is in place. In this handout photo released February 4, 2020, by the press service of Eugal, a view shows the Eugal pipeline, in Germany. The Eugal pipeline, which will receive gas from Nord Stream 2 in the future, has reached full pumping capacity, and the second line of the pipeline has been introduced. Photo: AFP / Press-service of Eugal / Sputnik
In parallel, Berlin knows very well that canceling NS2 will be an extremely serious breach of contract – involving hundreds of billions of euros; it was Germany that requested the pipeline to be built in the first place.
Germany’s energiewende (“energy transition” policy) has been a disaster. German industrialists know very well that natural gas is the only alternative to nuclear energy. They are not exactly fond of Berlin becoming a mere hostage, condemned to buy ridiculously expensive shale gas from the hegemon – even assuming the Hegemon will be able to deliver, as its fracking industry is in shambles. Merkel explaining to German public opinion why they must revert to using coal or buy shale from the US will be a sight to see.
As it stands, NATO provocations against NS2 proceed unabated – via warships and helicopters. NS2 needed a permit to work in Danish waters, and it was granted only a month ago. Even as Russian ships are not as fast in laying pipes as the previous ships from Swiss-based Allseas, which backed down, intimidated by US sanctions, the Russian Fortuna is making steady progress, as noted by analyst Petri Krohn: one kilometer a day on its best days, at least 800 meters a day. With 35 km left, that should not take more than 50 days.
Conversations with German analysts reveal a fascinating shadowplay on the energy front between Berlin and Moscow – not to mention Beijing. Compare it with Washington: EU diplomats complain there’s absolutely no one to negotiate with regarding NS2. And even assuming there would be some sort of deal, Berlin is inclined to admit Putin’s judgment is correct: the Americans are “not agreement-capable.” One just needs to look at the record.
Behind the fog of war, though, a clear scenario emerges: the deep state/NATO combo using Kiev to start a war as a Hail Mary pass to ultimately bury NS2, and thus German-Russian relations.
At the same time, the situation is evolving towards a possible new alignment in the heart of the “West”: US/UK pitted against Germany/France. Some Anglosphere exceptionals are certainly more Russophobic than others.
The toxic encounter between Russophobia and Pipelineistan will not be over even if NS2 is completed. There will be more sanctions. There will be an attempt to exclude Russia from SWIFT. The proxy war in Syria will intensify. The hegemon will go no holds barred to keep creating all sorts of geopolitical harassment against Russia.
What a nice wag-the-dog op to distract domestic public opinion from massive money printing masking a looming economic collapse. As the empire crumbles, the narrative is set in stone: it’s all the fault of “Russian aggression.”
Escobar: Ukraine Redux - War, Russophobia, & Pipelineistan | ZeroHedge
BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
SATURDAY, APR 10, 2021 - 07:00 AM
Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,
The deep state/NATO combo's using Kiev to start a war to bury Nord Stream 2 and German-Russian relations...
A Ukrainian serviceman walks in a fortified position at the front line with Russia-backed separatists not far away, in Avdiivka, Donetsk region, on April 5, 2021. Photo: AFP
Ukraine and Russia may be on the brink of war – with dire consequences for the whole of Eurasia. Let’s cut to the chase, and plunge head-on into the fog of war.
On March 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky, for all practical purposes, signed a declaration of war against Russia, via decree No. 117/2021.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a joint press conference with European Council President in Kiev on March 3, 2021. Photo: AFP / Sergey Dolzhenko
The decree establishes that retaking Crimea from Russia is now Kiev’s official policy. That’s exactly what prompted an array of Ukrainian battle tanks to be shipped east on flatbed rail cars, following the saturation of the Ukrainian army by the US with military equipment including unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare systems, anti-tank systems and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
More crucially, the Zelensky decree is the proof any subsequent war will have been prompted by Kiev, debunking the proverbial claims of “Russian aggression.” Crimea, since the referendum of March 2014, is part of the Russian Federation.
It was this (italics mine) de facto declaration of war, which Moscow took very seriously, that prompted the deployment of extra Russian forces to Crimea and closer to the Russian border with Donbass. Significantly, these include the crack 76th Guards Air Assault Brigade, known as the Pskov paratroopers and, according to an intel report quoted to me, capable of taking Ukraine in only six hours.
It certainly does not help that in early April US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, fresh from his former position as a board member of missile manufacturer Raytheon, called Zelensky to promise “unwavering US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.” That ties in with Moscow’s interpretation that Zelensky would never have signed his decree without a green light from Washington.
On March 8, 2021, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaks during observance of International Women’s Day in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC. Photo: AFP / Mandel Ngan
Controlling the narrative
Sevastopol, already when I visited in December 2018, is one of the most heavily defended places on the planet, impervious even to a NATO attack. In his decree, Zelensky specifically identifies Sevastopol as a prime target.
Once again, we’re back to 2014 post-Maidan unfinished business.
To contain Russia, the US deep state/NATO combo needs to control the Black Sea – which, for all practical purposes, is now a Russian lake. And to control the Black Sea, they need to “neutralize” Crimea.
If any extra proof was necessary, it was provided by Zelensky himself on Tuesday this week in a phone call with NATO secretary-general and docile puppet Jens Stoltenberg.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg gives a press conference at the end of a NATO Foreign Ministers’ meeting at the Alliance’s headquarters in Brussels on March 24, 2021. Photo: AFP / Olivier Hoslet
Zelensky uttered the key phrase: “NATO is the only way to end the war in Donbass” – which means, in practice, NATO expanding its “presence” in the Black Sea. “Such a permanent presence should be a powerful deterrent to Russia, which continues the large-scale militarization of the region and hinders merchant shipping.”
All of these crucial developments are and will continue to be invisible to global public opinion when it comes to the predominant, hegemon-controlled narrative.
The deep state/NATO combo is imprinting 24/7 that whatever happens next is due to “Russian aggression.” Even if the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) launch a blitzkrieg against the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics. (To do so against Sevastopol in Crimea would be certified mass suicide).
In the United States, Ron Paul has been one of the very few voices to state the obvious:
What’s implied is that Washington/Brussels don’t have a clear tactical, much less strategic game plan: only total narrative control.
And that is fueled by rabid Russophobia – masterfully deconstructed by the indispensable Andrei Martyanov, one of the world’s top military analysts.
A possibly hopeful sign is that on March 31, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, talked on the phone about the proverbial “issues of mutual interest.”
Days later, a Franco-German statement came out, calling on “all parties” to de-escalate. Merkel and Macron seem to have gotten the message in their videoconference with Putin – who must have subtly alluded to the effect generated by Kalibrs, Kinzhals and assorted hypersonic weapons if the going gets tough and the Europeans sanction a Kiev blitzkrieg.
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks as German Chancellor Angela Merkel looks on after a German-French Security Council video conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris, on February 5, 2021. Photo: AFP / Thibault Camus
The problem is Merkel and Macron don’t control NATO. Yet Merkel and Macron at least are fully aware that if the US/NATO combo attacks Russian forces or Russian passport holders who live in Donbass, the devastating response will target the command centers that coordinated the attacks.
What does the hegemon want?
As part of his current Energizer bunny act, Zelensky made an extra eyebrow-raising move. This past Monday, he visited Qatar with a lofty delegation and clinched a raft of deals, not circumscribed to LNG but also including direct Kiev-Doha flights; Doha leasing or buying a Black Sea port; and strong “defense/military ties” – which could be a lovely euphemism for a possible transfer of jihadis from Libya and Syria to fight Russian infidels in Donbass.
Right on cue, Zelensly meets Turkey’s Erdogan next Monday. Erdogan’s intel services run the jihadi proxies in Idlib, and dodgy Qatari funds are still part of the picture. Arguably, the Turks are already transferring those “moderate rebels” to Ukraine. Russian intel is meticulously monitoring all this activity.
A series of informed discussions – see, for instance, here and here – is converging on what may be the top three targets for the hegemon amid all this mess, short of war: to provoke an irreparable fissure between Russia and the EU, under NATO auspices; to crash the Nord Steam 2 pipeline; and to boost profits in the weapons business for the military-industral complex.
So the key question then is whether Moscow would be able to apply a Sun Tzu move short of being lured into a hot war in the Donbass.
On the ground, the outlook is grim. Denis Pushilin, one of the top leaders of the Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics, has stated that the chances of avoiding war are “extremely small.” Serbian sniper Dejan Beric – whom I met in Donetsk in 2015 and who is a certified expert on the ground – expects a Kiev attack in early May.
The extremely controversial Igor Strelkov, who may be termed an exponent of “orthodox socialism,” a sharp critic of the Kremlin’s policies who is one of the very few warlords who survived after 2014, has unequivocally stated that the only chance for peace is for the Russian army to control Ukrainian territory at least up to the Dnieper river. He stresses that a war in April is “very likely”; for Russia war “now” is better than war later; and there’s a 99% possibility that Washington will not fight for Ukraine.
On this last item at least Strelkov has a point; Washington and NATO want a war fought to the last Ukrainian.
Rostislav Ischenko, the top Russian analyst of Ukraine whom I had the pleasure of meeting in Moscow in late 2018, persuasively argues that, “the overall diplomatic, military, political, financial and economic situation powerfully requires the Kiev authorities to intensify combat operations in Donbass.
Gotta defend Europe
Let’s assume the worst in Donbass. Kiev launches its blitzkrieg. Russian intel documents everything. Moscow instantly announces it is using the full authority conferred by the UNSC to enforce the Minsk 2 ceasefire.
In what would be a matter of 8 hours or a maximum 48 hours, Russian forces smash the whole blitzkrieg apparatus to smithereens and send the Ukrainians back to their sandbox, which is approximately 75km north of the established contact zone.
In the Black Sea, incidentally, there’s no contact zone. This means Russia may send out all its advanced subs plus the surface fleet anywhere around the “Russian lake”: They are already deployed anyway.
Russian President Vladimir Putin looks on as Novator Design Bureau director-general Farid Abdrakhmanov and Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko shake hands during a signing ceremony for government contracts in Alabino, Moscow region, Russia. on June 27, 2019. Photo: AFP / Alexei Druzhinin / Sputnik
Once again Martyanov lays down the law when he predicts, referring to a group of Russian missiles developed by the Novator Design Bureau: “Crushing Ukies’ command and control system is a matter of few hours, be that near border or in the operational and strategic Uki depth. Basically speaking, the whole of the Ukrainian ‘navy’ is worth less than the salvo of 3M54 or 3M14 which will be required to sink it. I think couple of Tarantuls will be enough to finish it off in or near Odessa and then give Kiev, especially its government district, a taste of modern stand-off weapons.”
The absolutely key issue, which cannot be emphasized enough, is that Russia will not (italics mine) “invade” Ukraine. It doesn’t need to, and it doesn’t want to. What Moscow will do for sure is to support the Novorossiya people’s republics with equipment, intel, electronic warfare, control of airspace and special forces. Even a no-fly zone will not be necessary; the “message” will be clear that were a NATO fighter jet to show up near the frontline, it would be summarily shot down.
And that brings us to the open “secret” whispered only in informal dinners in Brussels, and chancelleries across Eurasia: NATO puppets do not have the balls to get into an open conflict with Russia.
One thing is to have yapping dogs like Poland, Romania, the Baltic gang and Ukraine amplified by corporate media on their “Russian aggression” script. Factually, NATO had its collective behind unceremoniously kicked in Afghanistan. It shivered when it had to fight the Serbs in the late 1990s. And in the 2010s, it did not dare fight the Damascus and Axis of Resistance forces.
When all fails, myth prevails. Enter the US Army occupying parts of Europe to “defend” it against – who else? – those pesky Russians.
That’s the rationale behind the annual US Army DEFENDER-Europe 21, now on till the end of June, mobilizing 28,000 soldiers from the US and 25 NATO allies and “partners.”
This month, men and heavy equipment pre-positioned in three US Army depots in Italy, Germany and the Netherlands will be transferred to multiple “training areas” in 12 countries. Oh, the joys of travel, no lockdown in an open air exercise since everyone has been fully vaccinated against Covid-19.
Pipelineistan uber alles
Nord Stream 2 is not a big deal for Moscow; it’s a Pipelineistan inconvenience at best. After all the Russian economy did not make a single ruble out of the not yet existent pipeline during the 2010s – and still it did fine. If NS2 is canceled, there are plans on the table to redirect the bulk of Russian gas shipments towards Eurasia, especially China.
Connecting German infrastructure for Nord Stream 2 is in place. In this handout photo released February 4, 2020, by the press service of Eugal, a view shows the Eugal pipeline, in Germany. The Eugal pipeline, which will receive gas from Nord Stream 2 in the future, has reached full pumping capacity, and the second line of the pipeline has been introduced. Photo: AFP / Press-service of Eugal / Sputnik
In parallel, Berlin knows very well that canceling NS2 will be an extremely serious breach of contract – involving hundreds of billions of euros; it was Germany that requested the pipeline to be built in the first place.
Germany’s energiewende (“energy transition” policy) has been a disaster. German industrialists know very well that natural gas is the only alternative to nuclear energy. They are not exactly fond of Berlin becoming a mere hostage, condemned to buy ridiculously expensive shale gas from the hegemon – even assuming the Hegemon will be able to deliver, as its fracking industry is in shambles. Merkel explaining to German public opinion why they must revert to using coal or buy shale from the US will be a sight to see.
As it stands, NATO provocations against NS2 proceed unabated – via warships and helicopters. NS2 needed a permit to work in Danish waters, and it was granted only a month ago. Even as Russian ships are not as fast in laying pipes as the previous ships from Swiss-based Allseas, which backed down, intimidated by US sanctions, the Russian Fortuna is making steady progress, as noted by analyst Petri Krohn: one kilometer a day on its best days, at least 800 meters a day. With 35 km left, that should not take more than 50 days.
Conversations with German analysts reveal a fascinating shadowplay on the energy front between Berlin and Moscow – not to mention Beijing. Compare it with Washington: EU diplomats complain there’s absolutely no one to negotiate with regarding NS2. And even assuming there would be some sort of deal, Berlin is inclined to admit Putin’s judgment is correct: the Americans are “not agreement-capable.” One just needs to look at the record.
Behind the fog of war, though, a clear scenario emerges: the deep state/NATO combo using Kiev to start a war as a Hail Mary pass to ultimately bury NS2, and thus German-Russian relations.
At the same time, the situation is evolving towards a possible new alignment in the heart of the “West”: US/UK pitted against Germany/France. Some Anglosphere exceptionals are certainly more Russophobic than others.
The toxic encounter between Russophobia and Pipelineistan will not be over even if NS2 is completed. There will be more sanctions. There will be an attempt to exclude Russia from SWIFT. The proxy war in Syria will intensify. The hegemon will go no holds barred to keep creating all sorts of geopolitical harassment against Russia.
What a nice wag-the-dog op to distract domestic public opinion from massive money printing masking a looming economic collapse. As the empire crumbles, the narrative is set in stone: it’s all the fault of “Russian aggression.”
Escobar: Ukraine Redux - War, Russophobia, & Pipelineistan | ZeroHedge
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I've noticed the AM reception here in the SF Bay Area has been poor and spotty since February.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
That Music, OMG . . .
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
phloydius
Veteran Member
View: https://twitter.com/Lojistik31/status/1380921347480633344
I think this says 2 Russian troops were killed by Ukraine artillery in the Donetsk area. (1 hour ago)
Anyone know if this is legit & properly translated?
I think this says 2 Russian troops were killed by Ukraine artillery in the Donetsk area. (1 hour ago)
Anyone know if this is legit & properly translated?
Zagdid
Veteran Member
How quickly he forgets that it was Putin that warned him of a western backed coup attempt taking place in his own country and saved him from overthrow.