Ukraine was left without electricity from Russia and Belarus after the ban on imports was lifted
By
Cornelius Chandler November 1, 2021
In Ukraine, on November 1, the ban on the import of electricity from Russia and Belarus ends, but so far no supplies are expected. Formally, there are no obstacles to this, although the Ukrainian authorities have threatened to extend the restrictions on supplies until 2023. However, this never happened.
Moreover, at the end of October, within the framework of the Ukrenergo auction, eight companies immediately bought out the available capacity of 2,200 MW to import electricity from Russia and Belarus. In particular, the Ukrainian Energoatom purchased 885 of the 900 available MW of interstate power transmission lines for the supply of Belarusian electricity.
But the possibility of implementing these quotas is in limbo, since auctions for the sale of electricity to Ukraine have been canceled in Russia and Belarus.
According to the head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy and Housing and Utilities Andriy Gerus, for this reason, there will be no electricity imports from November 1.
“There will be no electricity imports from the Russian Federation since November 1, Inter RAO announced an auction for the sale of electricity on October 20, but on October 21 the corresponding auction was canceled. Also, from November 1, there will be no electricity imports from Belarus, the corresponding auctions for the sale of electricity have been canceled, ”the deputy wrote in his Telegram channel.
He also noted that there were no guaranteed coal reserves in the warehouses of seven Ukrainian thermal power plants (TPPs). Gerus stressed that in total there are about 675 thousand tons of coal in the warehouses of thermal power plants and thermal power plants – according to the schedule of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, it should be over 2.9 million tons on the eve of the winter period.
Why does Ukraine need Russian-Belarusian energy
According to Strana, the issue of electricity supplies from Russia and Belarus was actively discussed in Ukraine, despite criticism from the authorities for possible purchases from unfriendly states. This decision is considered necessary to relieve tension from the Ukrainian electricity market, which is faced with a shortage of energy resources.
The main problem for Ukraine is observed with coal due to the rise in prices in the world, which caused low purchases from Ukrainian companies, as well as the stoppage of coal supplies from Russia, which was caused by an increase in domestic demand in the winter. The lack of coal leads to problems in the operation of thermal power plants, and the rapid rise in gas prices in Europe affects thermal power plants.
As a result, on the eve of the winter period, Ukraine finds itself in difficult conditions, which could be solved by the import of electricity from Russia and Belarus. According to Strana’s sources in the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, these supplies can cover about 20% of consumption in the local market.
Despite such prospects, the Ukrainian authorities do not abandon their negative rhetoric against Moscow and Minsk, which a number of Ukrainian media outlets consider as a possible reason for refusing to import electricity. Kiev often explains the problems with certain energy resources by Russia’s actions. In particular, Kiev attributed the rise in gas prices in Europe to Moscow’s attempt to push the launch of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline faster.
Ukrainian officials and politicians regard the project itself as a threat to the country, fearing an interruption in the transit of Russian gas through the territory of the state and even an “invasion of Russia.” According to the head of Naftogaz Ukrainy, Yuriy Vitrenko, the commissioning of Nord Stream 2 would supposedly relieve Russia of some kind of deterrent, thereby making Ukraine more vulnerable.
“[Если] there will be no physical transit [газа] through Ukraine, this increases the chances of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine with all its consequences “,
– Vitrenko announced in an interview with the Financial Times.
Why there is no import from Moscow and Minsk
Experts interviewed by Gazeta.Ru have different opinions on the possible refusal of Russia and Belarus to import electricity to Ukraine. For example, Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Research, is sure that there is hardly any official position of the parties on this matter.
“Delivery auctions are optional in this case. The Ukrainian media are trying to change the situation somewhat, saying what they wanted, while others do not. But Russia and Belarus did not officially speak out on this matter. These deliveries will be provided if the parties agree to this. There are no obstacles for this, ”the expert said.
At the same time, the head of the Ukrainian Institute for Policy Analysis and Management Ruslan Bortnik noted that there is no benefit for Kiev itself in the purchase of Russian and Belarusian electricity due to the political factor.
“From a political point of view, these supplies are very toxic for the Ukrainian authorities. Any supply of Russian or Belarusian electricity leads to the fact that Kiev is accused of unpatriotism, surrender of national interests and financing the budgets of “aggressor states,” the expert added.
At the same time, according to Bortnik, the refusal to supply electricity to Ukraine from Belarus and Russia can be regarded as an attempt at blackmail.
“Refusal to supply is an attempt to blackmail each other. Probably, Belarus is ready to supply electricity to Ukraine, but they want an official appeal to make it look like a step by Kiev towards admitting its political mistakes. It is unlikely that there will be any normal dialogue in this part, but there is no urgent need for electricity in the coming weeks, ”the expert emphasized.
Does Ukraine face an energy crisis?
Despite the lack of the required amount of coal for the full functioning of TPPs, we must not forget that the country’s energy system also includes hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power plants and other types of power plants that are not dependent on this resource.
From the point of view of Vladimir Bruter from the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Research, at the moment the weather in Ukraine is quite warm, so there are no problems at all.
“Subsequently, somewhere closer to December, some difficulties will appear. Probably, in such conditions, they will return to this topic (supplies from Russia and Belarus. – “Gazeta.Ru”) or will try to buy [энергоресурсы] somewhere else, ”the expert added.
Ruslan Bortnik from the Ukrainian Institute for Policy Analysis and Management agrees with this. According to him,
Ukraine has left the possibility of buying Belarusian or Russian electricity in the most extreme case, if the system is on the verge of some kind of energy collapse.
“While this is far enough away, Ukraine does not freeze and there is no major energy crisis in the country. Key energy sources will last at least until January, but then the situation may worsen, therefore, just in case, such an opportunity is left (purchase of energy from Russia and Belarus). The situation is difficult and hitting the pockets of the elites tied to energy resources, but much farther from the blackout than in 2014-2015, “the expert summed up.