ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Defending the Union. Zapad-2021

December 16 2021
International Centre for Defence and Security

Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation,
Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
Russian logistics vehicles moving through the Mulino Training Range.

Konrad Muzyka

The quadrennial exercise, Zapad, often prompts speculation that its real purpose is to provide cover for Russia to build up forces to attack a neighbouring state. This year’s iteration of the exercise took place during a tense period, with NATO-Russia relations at a low point, Russia moving large military units near Ukraine, and Minsk driven closer into Moscow’s embrace.

The active phase of the exercise took place in Russia’s Western Military District and Belarus between 10 and 16 September and saw the two countries rehearse large-scale conventional war against NATO. But, as this analysis demonstrates, Zapad is much more than its active warfighting phase. Other exercises take place in Russia in the overall framework of Zapad, and Russia takes the opportunity to also exercise other government bodies and its National Guard. Zapad-2021 was probably the largest command and staff exercise conducted in western Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Through Zapad-2021, Russia demonstrated its ability to move to a war footing, forward-deploy combat units, generate new fighting formations, conduct combined-arms high-tempo operations, and ensure steady logistic support to the frontlines. The exercise also confirmed the high degree of integration between the Belarusian and Russian armed forces at all levels. From the planning and operational perspectives, Belarus is a part of the Russian Western Military District.

This analysis describes the scenario and main events of Zapad-2021, and outlines other related exercises conducted in parallel. It draws some initial lessons from the exercise for NATO.

Defending the Union. Zapad-2021 - ICDS
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Russia lays out tough security demands for U.S., NATO amid Ukraine invasion fears
The tough demands appear certain to be rejected by the United States and its allies, which have emphasized that Russia doesn’t have a say in NATO’s enlargement.
Image:

Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the demand for security guarantees in last week’s video call with President Joe Biden.Mikhail Metzel / AP


Dec. 17, 2021, 7:56 AM EST / Updated Dec. 17, 2021, 7:58 AM EST
By Associated Press
MOSCOW — Russia on Friday published draft security pacts demanding NATO deny membership to Ukraine and other ex-Soviet countries and to roll back its military deployments in Central and Eastern Europe — bold demands that the United States and its allies already have rejected.
The documents, which were submitted to the U.S and its allies earlier this week, also call for a ban on sending U.S. and Russian warships and aircraft to areas from where they can strike each other’s territory and demand a rollback on alliance drills near Russia.

The tough demands appear certain to be rejected by the U.S. and its allies, which have emphasized that Russia doesn’t have a say in NATO’s enlargement. The alliance’s secretary-general warned that any security talks with Moscow would need to take into account NATO concerns and involve Ukraine and other partners.
The publication of the draft pacts come amid soaring tensions over a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine that has drawn fears of an invasion. Moscow has denied plans to attack its neighbor, but demanded the West provide a set of legal guarantees precluding NATO’s expansion to Ukraine and the deployment of the alliance’s weapons there, a demand NATO has rejected.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia’s relations with the U.S. and its NATO allies have approached a “dangerous point,” noting that alliance deployments and drills near Russia have raised “unacceptable” threats to its security.
UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT

Ukrainian soldiers keep watch on the frontline with Russia-backed separatists, not far from town of Avdiivka, Donetsk region, on Dec. 10, 2021.Anatolii Stepanov / AFP via Getty Images
The draft pacts — a Russia-U.S. security treaty and a security agreement between Moscow and NATO — contain obligations to pull back weapons and refrain from drills near the borders between Russia and the alliance members.
Ryabkov told reporters that Moscow proposed that the U.S. immediately start the talks on the proposed drafts in Geneva.
President Vladimir Putin raised the demand for security guarantees in last week’s video call with U.S. President Joe Biden. During the conversation, Biden voiced concern about a buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine and warned him that Russia would face “severe consequences” if Moscow attacked its neighbor.


NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday that the alliance had received the Russian draft documents, and noted that any dialogue with Moscow “would also need to address NATO’s concerns about Russia’s actions, be based on core principles and documents of European security, and take place in consultation with NATO’s European partners, such as Ukraine.”
He added that the 30 NATO countries “have made clear that should Russia take concrete steps to reduce tensions, we are prepared to work on strengthening confidence building measures.”
U.S. intelligence officials say Russia has moved 70,000 troops to its border with Ukraine and is preparing for a possible invasion early next year. Moscow has denied an intention to attack and accused Ukrainian authorities of planning an offensive to reclaim control of rebel-held eastern Ukraine — an allegation Ukraine has rejected.
Fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine began after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. It has killed over 14,000 people and devastated Ukraine’s industrial heartland called Donbas.
www.nbcnews.com

Russia lays out tough security demands for U.S., NATO amid Ukraine invasion fears

The tough demands appear certain to be rejected by the United States and its allies, which have emphasized that Russia doesn’t have a say in NATO’s enlargement.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
Marie

Marie

Veteran Member
danielboon said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1471534392589930496
View: https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1471534392589930496
Click to expand...

tass.com

Two strategic missile regiments to go on combat alert in Russia by yearend — commander

Missile regiment of the Kozelsk missile formation is armed with silo-based Yars missiles and a regiment of the Barnaul missile unit with mobile Yars missile systems
tass.com tass.com
17 DEC, 10:52
Two strategic missile regiments to go on combat alert in Russia by yearend — commander
Missile regiment of the Kozelsk missile formation is armed with silo-based Yars missiles and a regiment of the Barnaul missile unit with mobile Yars missile systems

MOSCOW, December 17. /TASS/. Two missile regiments armed with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) will assume combat duty in the Russian Strategic Missile Force by the end of this year, Strategic Missile Force Commander Colonel-General Sergey Karakayev said on Friday.

"We are ending the year 2021 with the effort of placing another missile regiment of the Kozelsk missile formation armed with silo-based Yars missiles and a regiment of the Barnaul missile unit with mobile Yars missile systems on combat alert," the commander said in an interview with the Defense Ministry’s Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper.

The RS-24 Yars is a Russian strategic missile system comprising a mobile or silo-based solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile with MIRVed (multiple independently targetable vehicle) warheads. The Yars is a modification of the Topol-M missile system. Russia started deploying Yars ICBM systems from 2009 when the Yars launcher was accepted for experimental combat duty in the Strategic Missile Force.
 
AlfaMan

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
naegling62 said:
Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics should of been made neutral and armed by both sides. Then turn them into an economic neutral zone facilitating trade between East and West.

Instead the West is only interested in fragmenting Russia into destabilized warring republics.

We're in this situation because the retards blew the peace dividend we won after the cold war.
Click to expand...

"Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics should of been made neutral and armed by both sides. Then turn them into an economic neutral zone facilitating trade between East and West".

A 21st century version of the Danzig corridor would do about as much as the Danzig corridor did for eastern Europe in WW2. Nothing.

Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic states should not have been touched, made neutral by others or otherwise. Those are now nations exercising their free will as free nations; kind of like how the US gained self determination after throwing off the British yoke. Those nations chose to align with the west-because they knew just how "good" the Soviet system was to them. Sure, what's a few million dead sent to the gulags, Russia was so good to us. Riiiight............

The demands and guarantees ol' Vlad wants are pipe dreams never to be acted on, and he knows it. He knows Comrade Joe is weak and incompetent; and he's using it to his full advantage. Vlad has laid down specific red lines for the world to comply with. Knowing either Europe nor the US will comply; war is going to happen. Soon. It's close; we are at the end of this political foreplay.

And those who feel the poor old downtrodden "don't pick on me" Rodina is the victim may change their minds when the RV's start destroying US cities.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
7 Signs That War With Russia Just Got Even Closer

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
SATURDAY, DEC 18, 2021 - 07:00 AM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

In this article I am going to write about something that the vast majority of the U.S. population couldn’t care less about. Sadly, most Americans simply do not care about Ukraine, Russia’s military preparations for war, or pretty much anything else that is happening on the other side of the globe. But over in Russia, things are completely different. There is constant talk about the potential for war with the west, and there is a lot of pessimism that it will be able to be avoided.



To the Russians, this really is the biggest crisis with the west since the Cuban missile crisis of the 1960s. The Russians have repeatedly warned that western missiles must not be stationed in Ukraine, and they have repeatedly warned that Ukraine must not become a member of NATO.

They are using the same rationale that we used during the Cuban missile crisis. We didn’t want the Russians to have missiles in Cuba that could potentially hit our major cities within just a matter of a few minutes, and likewise the Russians don’t want missiles in Ukraine that could potentially hit their major cities within just a matter of a few minutes.
The only way that Vladimir Putin will ever authorize an invasion of Ukraine is if one of his strategic “red lines” is crossed.
But instead of easing tensions and trying to talk things out, western leaders just keep provoking Russia.

If they keep on recklessly poking the bear, at some point a mistake will be made and we will have a war that nobody wants. The following are 7 signs that war with Russia just got even closer…

#1 Despite the fact that Vladimir Putin has said that such a move would cross one of his “red lines”, Ukraine was just told that it will eventually be allowed to join NATO…
Facing a building threat from Russia, Ukraine’s president sought security guarantees from NATO’s chief in a meeting on Thursday and came away with a renewed commitment that his country could eventually join the military alliance despite stiff objections from its Russian neighbors.
Click to expand...
#2 Ukraine has shocked the world by opening up the bomb shelters in Kiev…
Ukraine has opened bomb shelters in the capital of the nation as fears of a Russian invasion soar. On Wednesday a Ukrainian minister and former top spy warned the conflict could spread globally.
Click to expand...
#3 ABC’s Martha Raddatz is reporting that after Joe Biden’s recent call with Vladimir Putin, the Russians moved an additional 10,000 troops to the border with Ukraine.
#4 The EU is warning of “massive costs for Russia” if there is any more “aggression” toward Ukraine…
“At this point in time, Russia is choosing an aggressive posture vis-à-vis its neighbors. And as the European Union and its G-7 partners have made very clear, further aggressive acts against Ukraine will have massive costs for Russia,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday.
Click to expand...
#5 Banks in Belarus are preparing to switch to Russia’s version of SWIFT due to imminent sanctions by the west…
Belarusian banks are preparing for tougher Western sanctions by signing up to Russia’s alternative to the SWIFT, the international financial messaging network that underpins the global banking system, Russia’s Moskovsky Komsomolets tabloid has reported.
Russia’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) has more than 400 domestic users — practically every licensed Russian lender — but is used by only 38 banks from nine other countries. Developed in 2014, SPFS is designed to keep banking transactions in the event of Western sanctions disconnecting Russia from SWIFT.
Click to expand...
#6 It is being reported that Russia “has begun to move Tor short-range surface-to-air missile systems to the border area with Ukraine.”
#7 A bipartisan group of U.S. Senators wants to formally designate Russia as a “terrorist state”. Needless to say, the Russians are not happy about this…
On top of that – as if all that were not incendiary enough – the US Senators want to designate Russia a “terrorist state” if its “forces further invade Ukraine”. Such a designation of a nuclear superpower is unprecedented. It is an insane move that would make diplomacy and negotiation all but impossible. It’s tantamount to declaring war.
Click to expand...
We should want to try to find a way to have peace with Russia, but we just keep on moving closer to war.
And when war eventually comes, it may be global.
Most Americans don’t realize this, but Russia and China just announced a brand new “security alliance”…
On Wednesday it was announced that Russia and China had agreed to terms on a security alliance.
President Xi said regarding the deal: “At present, certain international forces under the guise of ‘democracy’ and ‘human rights’ are interfering in the internal affairs of China and Russia and brutally trampling on international law and recognised norms of international relations.”
Click to expand...
So could the U.S. find itself fighting both Russia and China at the same time someday?
Yes, that is entirely possible.
Meanwhile, European powers are warning that talks to revive the Iranian nuclear deal “are rapidly reaching the end of the road”…
A joint statement from Britain, France and Germany issued on Tuesday said “we are rapidly reaching the end of the road” to save the 2015 Iran nuclear deal after the Iranian side accused the West of stoking a “blame game” atmosphere.
“Iran’s continued nuclear escalation means that we are rapidly reaching the end of the road,” France’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nicolas de Riviere, announced. He added that Iran’s consistently blowing past development and uranium enrichment limits all while blaming the US for pulling out of the deal means “We are nearing the point where Iran’s escalation of its nuclear program will have completely hollowed out the JCPOA.”
Click to expand...
The Israelis have already been practicing for an attack on Iran, and if peace talks collapse it will make a conflict between Israel and Iran inevitable.
Of course a new war in the Middle East would give the Biden administration a way to distract us from our growing internal troubles. At this point, only 26 percent of Americans believe that the country is headed in the right direction…
A new Economist/YouGov Poll shows almost 75% of Americans are either unsure or believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Only 26% think things are going well.
Worse, just 4% believe the economy is “excellent.”
Click to expand...
Personally, I do not believe that we will see a major war erupt before the end of 2021.
But a new year is just weeks away, and I have such a bad feeling about 2022.
Over the past couple of years we have been hit with one thing after another, and “the perfect storm” that is now upon us threatens to go to an entirely new level next year.

* * *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

7 Signs That War With Russia Just Got Even Closer | ZeroHedge
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Russia sends nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over Belarus
A pair of nuclear-capable Russian long-range bombers has patrolled the skies over Belarus Saturday on a mission intended to underline close defense ties between the two allies amid tensions with the West
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV Associated Press
18 December 2021, 06:15

211212_tw_raddatz_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg

Putin ‘did not back down’ on call with Biden: Martha Raddatz

MOSCOW -- A pair of nuclear-capable Russian long-range bombers patrolled the skies over Belarus on Saturday on a mission intended to underline close defense ties between the two allies amid tensions with the West.

The Russian Defense Ministry said two Tu-22M3 flew a four-hour mission to practice “performing joint tasks with the Belarusian air force and air defense.” The bombers were escorted by Belarus' Su-30 fighter jets, which Russia has supplied to its ally.

Saturday’s Russian bomber patrol marked a third such mission since last month.

The patrol flight comes amid Western concerns over a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine that raised fears of an invasion. Moscow has denied plans for such an attack, but urged the West to provide security guarantees that would exclude NATO's expansion to Ukraine and the deployment of the alliance's weapons there — demands that are almost certain to be rejected by the U.S. and its allies.

Some Ukrainian officials have voiced concern that Russia may use the territory of its ally Belarus for attacking Ukraine.

Moscow has strongly supported Belarus amid a tense standoff last month when thousands of migrants and refugees, most of them from the Middle East, gathered on the Belarusian side of the border with Poland in the hope of crossing into Western Europe.

The European Union has accused authoritarian Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of encouraging illegal border crossings as a “hybrid attack” to retaliate against EU sanctions on his government for its crackdown on internal dissent after Lukashenko’s disputed 2020 reelection.

Amid tensions with the West, Lukashenko said last month that his country would be ready to host Russian nuclear weapons.

The Belarusian leader wouldn’t elaborate on what kind of weapons Belarus would be willing to accommodate, but noted that the ex-Soviet nation has carefully preserved the necessary military infrastructure dating back to the time of the USSR.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has described Lukashenko’s offer as a “serious warning prompted by reckless Western policy.”

Russia sends nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over Belarus - ABC News (go.com)
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Mentioned this in a prep thread.

but with all the saber rattling I suggest getting a copy of Nuclear War Survival Skills and maybe a geiger counter, for use here, if/in case we go nuclear.

Shane, a member, has a site KI4u.com for info and products.
 
Red Baron

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
northern watch said:
They are using the same rationale that we used during the Cuban missile crisis. We didn’t want the Russians to have missiles in Cuba that could potentially hit our major cities within just a matter of a few minutes, and likewise the Russians don’t want missiles in Ukraine that could potentially hit their major cities within just a matter of a few minutes.
Click to expand...

The Cuban missile crisis was spawned by U.S./NATO stationing mid range nuclear missiles on Russia's border in Turkey. Russia protested to no avail. This fact is often overlooked in many accounts of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

When Russian protests about our missiles in Turkey failed, Russia effected a -proportional- response by stationing their mid-range nuclear missiles in Cuba.

Kennedy's war cabinet and the fawning media so in love with "Camelot" and the whoring JFK fanned the war flames to a Cold War fever pitch. Not unlike our current MSM.

Russia did exactly what we did to them. We started it.

Kennedy was the one who blinked, not Russia. Kennedy agreed to remove our nukes from Turkey and Russia removed their nukes from Cuba. A proportionate de-escalation. Russia even agreed to keep our Turkey nukes a secret so the Kennedy administration could save face domestically after all of the hysteria. I think that was mighty white of the Russians.

So now we are at Cuba Crisis Part II.

Lovely . . .

`
 
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Red Baron

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Doughboy42 said:
One problem in negotiating/listening to Putin is when he talks about Red Lines. Obama taught us that Red Lines were meant to be crossed. I don't believe Putin thinks so.
Click to expand...

Russia lost 20 million+ soldiers and civilians in WWII. Russia was perfectly willing to starve 5-10 million Ukrainians during the 30's to ensure food supplies to Russia. Stalin was perfectly willing to kill thousands of "non-loyal", non-Russians in it's officer corps leading up to WWII severely impacting it's military readiness. 10,000 or so Polish officers were massacred after Stalin and Hitler agreed to partition Poland.

Pre, trans, and post Communism, Russia is all about Russia.

Russian "red lines" are serious business. Thinking otherwise is patently dangerous.
 
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CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Doughboy42 said:
One problem in negotiating/listening to Putin is when he talks about Red Lines. Obama taught us that Red Lines were meant to be crossed. I don't believe Putin thinks so.
Click to expand...
I put up an article some days ago, ......somewhere it is written....that the west, and in particular the US, makes decisions on policies while looking over their shoulders, and the political gain, or loss, they receive from it.

While the Russians/Putin do not. Does Putin really care what we, much less what his opponents, think of his decisions? No, he does not. So his red lines, really are red lines, and best pay attention, or suffer the consequences.

The only time Putin smiles is when someone is destroyed. He has no sense of humor. The only time he laughs is when Biden speaks.
 
S

Squid

Veteran Member
Red Baron said:
The Cuban missile crisis was spawned by U.S./NATO stationing mid range nuclear missiles on Russia's border in Turkey. Russia protested to no avail. This fact is often overlooked in many accounts of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

When Russian protests about our missiles in Turkey failed, Russia effected a -proportional- response by stationing their mid-range nuclear missiles in Cuba.

Kennedy's war cabinet and the fawning media so in love with "Camelot" and the whoring JFK fanned the war flames to a Cold War fever pitch. Not unlike our current MSM.

Russia did exactly what we did to them. We started it.

Kennedy was the one who blinked, not Russia. Kennedy agreed to remove our nukes from Turkey and Russia removed their nukes from Cuba. A proportionate de-escalation. Russia even agreed to keep our Turkey nukes a secret so the Kennedy administration could save face domestically after all of the hysteria. I think that was mighty white of the Russians.

So now we are at Cuba Crisis Part II.

Lovely . . .

`
Click to expand...
I have a slightly different take. Yes the missiles became pawn in the de-escalation but even without the European missile moves I absolutely believe the play to forward base missiles in Cuba would have been attempted.

Hell with the dem morons running the show it would not surprise me if there weren’t missiles there today.
 
Red Baron

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
danielboon said:
Buckel up
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1472309044715139077
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1472309044715139077
Click to expand...

Germany needs to, quite simply, shut the hell up. Period. End of discussion.

Russia lost 20+ million in WWII against Germany. Even today, Russia will swat Germany down in a heartbeat if Germany puts any German troops on the Russian border, anywhere. If Germany is too stupid to realize this, then they deserve what they get. I just don't want such a weak NATO partner dragging the U.S. into a conflict.

Germany may be the economic leader in the EU but they are a totally toothless tiger on the NATO military front.

- Germany has downsized their post Cold War military forces to almost laughable levels.

- About 30% of German energy requirements are solely dependent on Russia.

- Germany has not committed to minimum NATO defense level spending requirements for decades.
 
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