WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean
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jward
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Update: Turkey has issued three separate new Navtex In the Aegean Sea between 19-20 September. Shooting Training will be held in the Sinop field on September 21-27.
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Update: Turkey has issued three separate new Navtex In the Aegean Sea between 19-20 September. Shooting Training will be held in the Sinop field on September 21-27.
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Evan Kohlmann
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Influential Iraqi Shiite cleric and militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr has issued a new communique significantly breaking with allied Shiite insurgent groups in Iraq who have launched provocative attacks targeting the U.S. and British embassies and embassy staff in Baghdad.
Muqtada al-Sadr: "I do not find it in our interests to target cultural and diplomatic centers... as a means to end the occupation and prevent their interference. Whoever among you [that does so] should know that they are exposing Iraq and its people to imminent danger."
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www.aspistrategist.org.au
The new eastern Mediterranean crisis
17 Sep 2020 | Hrishabh Sandilya, Kyriaki Chatzipanagiotou and Sarah Morsheimer
Earlier this month, six boats carrying Syrian and Lebanese migrants set sail from northern Lebanon and attempted to dock in Cyprus. That might not sound like much, yet it is six times more than the total number of migrant vessels that have embarked for Cyprus from Lebanon over the last year. A fast boat can cover the 100 nautical miles between Tripoli and Cape Greco, a rocky outcrop in the southeast of the island, in six hours. And with Lebanon’s government in shambles, these calm, largely unpoliced waters are a smuggler’s dream.
Because the boats are small, only a few dozen people have made the trip so far. Already, though, the Cypriots have responded in a legally dubious manner. Violating the United Nations’ 1951 Refugee Convention and the non-refoulement principle, Cypriot authorities blocked the boats at sea and returned the ‘economic migrants’ to Lebanon, claiming they have an agreement with the Lebanese government.
In fact, Cyprus is simply unprepared for a new influx of refugees. Its prison-like migrant camps are already overcrowded, and its asylum system is a thicket of Byzantine bureaucracy and convoluted laws. Processing an asylum application currently takes three to five years. And while the government has recently tried to legislate its way out of the mess, concerns about refugee rights and due process remain.
Despite the outpouring of public support for Lebanon following the massive port explosion in Beirut last month, there’s little willingness in Cyprus or elsewhere to accept additional refugees. And yet the situation in Lebanon has become increasingly precarious. On 10 September, another massive fire broke out in Beirut’s ruined port, deepening the angst of an already traumatised country.
Although geopolitical conditions in the eastern Mediterranean are rarely calm, they have grown increasingly heated in recent months, even by regional standards. Lebanon’s politicians remain fully beholden to foreign masters and are effectively holding the country’s domestic politics hostage to regional geopolitical subterfuge. As a result, Lebanon has suffered a series of economic crises, and the government has grown so desperate that it tried last year to impose a tax on WhatsApp messages.
Then came last month’s explosion, which destroyed large quantities of the country’s food stocks and dealt a near-fatal blow to people’s spirits. While many countries, including Cyprus, have been quick to respond with humanitarian aid, medicine, food and help with infrastructure repairs and capacity-building measures, it will take sustained international support over many years to restore what has been lost.
In the meantime, the Covid-19 pandemic will continue to exacerbate the effects of Lebanon’s fractious internal politics, susceptibility to external pressures and economic disarray. This perfect storm could well trigger a mass exodus of Lebanese citizens, not to mention the millions of displaced Syrians and Palestinians who have found a tenuous refuge in the country.
Worse, with the international community distracted by the pandemic, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pursuing a neo-Ottoman project to expand Turkey’s influence in the region, waging proxy wars, claiming gas fields, converting museums into mosques and threatening Europe with new waves of migrants. With Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis taking a firm stand and challenging the presence of Turkish surveyor ships in contested waters, Cyprus has been caught in the crossfire.
The political dynamics are no less tense within the European Union, where the Brexit negotiations are in disarray and border closures in response to the pandemic have called into question the future of the EU’s passport-free Schengen area.
With cold weather expected to exacerbate the pandemic, and a hard winter posing possible challenges to Lebanon, it would be wise for Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and the EU to begin preparing for a potential next wave of refugees from the Levant. In the worst-case scenario, migrant movements across freezing seas and frozen territories would combine with the ravages of a Covid-19 winter wave, producing even greater humanitarian challenges in the eastern Mediterranean.
Preparation now by local, regional, national and international authorities could mitigate such a crisis. Our own experience in Cyprus, along with that of others globally, is that innovative approaches that leverage technology and recognise the agency of migrants in co-creating practicable solutions are the best way to support them. The SDG Impact Accelerator’s work with refugee entrepreneurs in Istanbul showcases the true potential of this approach.
And while sweeping new strategies may not be possible in the near term, the EU can at least start allocating substantial emergency funds to support local and national authorities in the eastern Mediterranean. In Cyprus, and possibly in some of the easternmost Greek islands, refugee reception camps could be furnished with the necessary essentials and expanded to enable the maximum possible physical distancing. And temporary staff and translators can be hired to help speed up the asylum process.
Beyond basic operational readiness, location-specific humanitarian aid and information campaigns are needed in northern Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece and across the EU, where the media should cover the issue in ways that evoke public empathy. Cyprus and Greece will need to be able to place their trust in the principle of European solidarity, which requires refugees from Lebanon and the greater Levant to be resettled proportionally in other EU member states. And any arrangement will need Erdogan’s blessing, given that Turkey controls Northern Cyprus.
Between a potential migration crisis and the escalation of regional tensions, the situation in the eastern Mediterranean is more fraught than it has been in years. Should it unravel, Europe would face dire consequences for security on its southeastern flank. The EU must rise to the challenge and find common ground for regional cooperation. The recent fire that destroyed the Moria migrant camp on the Greek island of Lesbos is a stark reminder of how quickly the current semblance of stability can go up in smoke.
Author
Hrishabh Sandilya is director for development at Project Phoenix. Kyriaki Chatzipanagiotou is a Cypriot security analyst and researcher. Sarah Morsheimer is a researcher for Project Phoenix and Global Law Scholar at Georgetown University. The authors are conducting a systemic analysis of Covid-19’s impact on migrants in Cyprus for Project Phoenix; Tina Mykkanen is the fourth researcher involved. This article is presented in partnership with Project Syndicate © 2020. Image: Turkish Defence Ministry/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images .
The new eastern Mediterranean crisis | The Strategist
Earlier this month, six boats carrying Syrian and Lebanese migrants set sail from northern Lebanon and attempted to dock in Cyprus. That might not sound like much, yet it is six times more than the ...
www.aspistrategist.org.au
The new eastern Mediterranean crisis
17 Sep 2020 | Hrishabh Sandilya, Kyriaki Chatzipanagiotou and Sarah Morsheimer
Earlier this month, six boats carrying Syrian and Lebanese migrants set sail from northern Lebanon and attempted to dock in Cyprus. That might not sound like much, yet it is six times more than the total number of migrant vessels that have embarked for Cyprus from Lebanon over the last year. A fast boat can cover the 100 nautical miles between Tripoli and Cape Greco, a rocky outcrop in the southeast of the island, in six hours. And with Lebanon’s government in shambles, these calm, largely unpoliced waters are a smuggler’s dream.
Because the boats are small, only a few dozen people have made the trip so far. Already, though, the Cypriots have responded in a legally dubious manner. Violating the United Nations’ 1951 Refugee Convention and the non-refoulement principle, Cypriot authorities blocked the boats at sea and returned the ‘economic migrants’ to Lebanon, claiming they have an agreement with the Lebanese government.
In fact, Cyprus is simply unprepared for a new influx of refugees. Its prison-like migrant camps are already overcrowded, and its asylum system is a thicket of Byzantine bureaucracy and convoluted laws. Processing an asylum application currently takes three to five years. And while the government has recently tried to legislate its way out of the mess, concerns about refugee rights and due process remain.
Despite the outpouring of public support for Lebanon following the massive port explosion in Beirut last month, there’s little willingness in Cyprus or elsewhere to accept additional refugees. And yet the situation in Lebanon has become increasingly precarious. On 10 September, another massive fire broke out in Beirut’s ruined port, deepening the angst of an already traumatised country.
Although geopolitical conditions in the eastern Mediterranean are rarely calm, they have grown increasingly heated in recent months, even by regional standards. Lebanon’s politicians remain fully beholden to foreign masters and are effectively holding the country’s domestic politics hostage to regional geopolitical subterfuge. As a result, Lebanon has suffered a series of economic crises, and the government has grown so desperate that it tried last year to impose a tax on WhatsApp messages.
Then came last month’s explosion, which destroyed large quantities of the country’s food stocks and dealt a near-fatal blow to people’s spirits. While many countries, including Cyprus, have been quick to respond with humanitarian aid, medicine, food and help with infrastructure repairs and capacity-building measures, it will take sustained international support over many years to restore what has been lost.
In the meantime, the Covid-19 pandemic will continue to exacerbate the effects of Lebanon’s fractious internal politics, susceptibility to external pressures and economic disarray. This perfect storm could well trigger a mass exodus of Lebanese citizens, not to mention the millions of displaced Syrians and Palestinians who have found a tenuous refuge in the country.
Worse, with the international community distracted by the pandemic, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pursuing a neo-Ottoman project to expand Turkey’s influence in the region, waging proxy wars, claiming gas fields, converting museums into mosques and threatening Europe with new waves of migrants. With Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis taking a firm stand and challenging the presence of Turkish surveyor ships in contested waters, Cyprus has been caught in the crossfire.
The political dynamics are no less tense within the European Union, where the Brexit negotiations are in disarray and border closures in response to the pandemic have called into question the future of the EU’s passport-free Schengen area.
With cold weather expected to exacerbate the pandemic, and a hard winter posing possible challenges to Lebanon, it would be wise for Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and the EU to begin preparing for a potential next wave of refugees from the Levant. In the worst-case scenario, migrant movements across freezing seas and frozen territories would combine with the ravages of a Covid-19 winter wave, producing even greater humanitarian challenges in the eastern Mediterranean.
Preparation now by local, regional, national and international authorities could mitigate such a crisis. Our own experience in Cyprus, along with that of others globally, is that innovative approaches that leverage technology and recognise the agency of migrants in co-creating practicable solutions are the best way to support them. The SDG Impact Accelerator’s work with refugee entrepreneurs in Istanbul showcases the true potential of this approach.
And while sweeping new strategies may not be possible in the near term, the EU can at least start allocating substantial emergency funds to support local and national authorities in the eastern Mediterranean. In Cyprus, and possibly in some of the easternmost Greek islands, refugee reception camps could be furnished with the necessary essentials and expanded to enable the maximum possible physical distancing. And temporary staff and translators can be hired to help speed up the asylum process.
Beyond basic operational readiness, location-specific humanitarian aid and information campaigns are needed in northern Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece and across the EU, where the media should cover the issue in ways that evoke public empathy. Cyprus and Greece will need to be able to place their trust in the principle of European solidarity, which requires refugees from Lebanon and the greater Levant to be resettled proportionally in other EU member states. And any arrangement will need Erdogan’s blessing, given that Turkey controls Northern Cyprus.
Between a potential migration crisis and the escalation of regional tensions, the situation in the eastern Mediterranean is more fraught than it has been in years. Should it unravel, Europe would face dire consequences for security on its southeastern flank. The EU must rise to the challenge and find common ground for regional cooperation. The recent fire that destroyed the Moria migrant camp on the Greek island of Lesbos is a stark reminder of how quickly the current semblance of stability can go up in smoke.
Author
Hrishabh Sandilya is director for development at Project Phoenix. Kyriaki Chatzipanagiotou is a Cypriot security analyst and researcher. Sarah Morsheimer is a researcher for Project Phoenix and Global Law Scholar at Georgetown University. The authors are conducting a systemic analysis of Covid-19’s impact on migrants in Cyprus for Project Phoenix; Tina Mykkanen is the fourth researcher involved. This article is presented in partnership with Project Syndicate © 2020. Image: Turkish Defence Ministry/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images .
jward
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The Cavell Group
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Syria: At least two more civilians kidnapped in Afrin this week, that’s more than 100 since summer began in the region. Much speculation about latest perpetrators. Kidnappings occur for ransoms, sex and information. Women regularly targeted and often killed.
jward
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Foreign Policy
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan used to express support for China’s Uighur minority, much to the chagrin of the Chinese government. But recently he has changed his tune, most likely in response to Beijing’s support for the Turkish economy.
View: https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/1307469562762457088?s=20
@ForeignPolicy
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan used to express support for China’s Uighur minority, much to the chagrin of the Chinese government. But recently he has changed his tune, most likely in response to Beijing’s support for the Turkish economy.
View: https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/1307469562762457088?s=20
jward
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EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
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Taiwanese FM on China: 'After Hong Kong, Taiwan might be next' http://f24.my/6sYZ.Tvia
@FRANCE24
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1307490099840651267?s=20
Evan Kohlmann
@ntelTweet
13m
Influential Iraqi Shiite cleric and militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr has issued a new communique significantly breaking with allied Shiite insurgent groups in Iraq who have launched provocative attacks targeting the U.S. and British embassies and embassy staff in Baghdad.
Muqtada al-Sadr: "I do not find it in our interests to target cultural and diplomatic centers... as a means to end the occupation and prevent their interference. Whoever among you [that does so] should know that they are exposing Iraq and its people to imminent danger."
Posted for fair use.....
Iranian front groups claim responsibility for recent attacks against Coalition targets in Iraq | FDD's Long War Journal
Four newly-formed front groups for Iran have claimed several recent attacks across Iraq. American officials have attempted to downplay the events.
www.longwarjournal.org
Iranian front groups claim responsibility for recent attacks against Coalition targets in Iraq
By Caleb Weiss & Joe Truzman | September 18, 2020 | weiss.caleb2_@gmail.com |
From top left: Avenger Brigades, Sariya Qassem al-Jibareen, Zulfiqar Forces, and People of the Cave.
Over the past few days, a surge of assaults against American and Coalition forces inside Iraq have been reported across the country. Four nascent armed factions, all of which are believed to be Iranian-backed, have claimed responsibility.
On Sept. 13, People of the Cave claimed to have detonated an IED on a transport convoy of vehicles belonging to the American-led coalition in Iraq’s Salahuddin Province.
After the explosion, the group stated, its men briefly engaged in a firefight with Coalition troops. However, it is unclear if the statement was referring to American or Iraqi soldiers.
While the alleged firefight has not been reported in local media, an IED on an Iraqi logistics convoy near the village of Al-Rayyash was indeed reported. At least one Iraqi driver was injured in the explosion.
People of the Cave, which originated earlier this year, has previously claimed other strikes against logistics convoys in Iraq.
On Sept. 14, two Katyusha rockets were launched against the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. American air-defense systems were able to detect and destroy the incoming rockets before they could impact the Green Zone.
Not long after, another ascending armed group, Zulfiqar Forces, published a statement and later a video claiming responsibility for the rocket barrage. The statement and video were both released via the group’s Telegram channel.
“The resistance fighters last night began to remember the martyr Hajj Qasem Soleimani and the martyr Hajj al-Muhandis, and they showered you in the name of the two martyrs with two missiles at the headquarters of the sinister base [U.S. Embassy],” the statement read.
The video also ended with a reminder that the barrage was in “revenge” for the killing of Soleimani and Muhandis.
The next day, at least one IED targeted British diplomatic vehicles while they were traveling between Baghdad’s Green Zone and the airport. The convoy was reportedly returning from dropping off a British diplomat at the airport when the attack occurred.
Later that day, yet another newly-formed group, the Avenger Brigades, claimed responsibility for the assault in a statement released online, alleging that two IEDs were used.
“Avenger Brigades confirms that it detonated two IEDs targeting convoys of American intelligence officers with their staff in the regional office in security of the American Embassy in a quality operation and the initial news confirms that three American officers were killed,” the statement read.
Although the statement claimed the group attacked ‘American officers’ and that some were killed, this is not true. While purported photos of the aftermath appear to show heavy damage to the vehicles, no one was reported injured in the blast.
Much like the People of the Cave or Zulfiqar Forces, the Avenger Brigades is likely another Iranian front group inside Iraq. It brands itself within the pro-Iran “Islamic Resistance,” while its media has been shared on similarly branded channels as well as outlets linked to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
And similar to other Iranian proxies in the Middle East, its logo is a carbon copy of the IRGC. This branding is often used to demonstrate a position within Iran’s ‘axis of resistance,” or a network of state and non-state actors opposed to American presence in the region.
Then on Sept. 16, sirens again sounded inside Baghdad’s Green Zone after a rocket was launched toward the area. Local reports documented that some damage did occur against a building and vehicles inside the zone’s perimeter. This assault has yet to be claimed by any group, however.
Yesterday, a new group emerged to claim two additional IEDs against logistical convoys contracted by the U.S.-led coalition. Sariya Qassem al-Jibareen, a moniker used in reference to Qassem Soleimani, said that it was responsible for IEDs on convoys near Latifiya, just south of Baghdad, and in the western Baghdad suburb of Abu Ghraib.
While one IED on a convoy near Latifiya has been reported by local media, no such incident has been confirmed near Abu Ghraib. Another IED was reported near Al-Nile in Babil Governorate, which sits south of Latifiya, but it is unclear if the group is referring to that explosion.
Sariya Qassem al-Jibareen joins the chorus of other ascending Iranian-backed fronts in Iraq. It’s announcement and claims have been propagated by ‘Islamic Resistance’ channels on social media. Like other groups in this branding, its logo is also a carbon copy of the IRGC.
Then last night, an IED detonated outside the ‘American Institute for English’ in Najaf, though no casualties were reported. As of the time of publishing, no group has taken responsibility for the blast. However, it has been widely shared and celebrated on channels linked to both the ‘Islamic Resistance in Iraq’ and the IRGC.
FDD’s Long War Journal spoke with Colonel Wayne Marotto, the official military spokesperson of Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) about this week’s offensives and if there was concern of this recent surge in attacks by Iranian-backed groups.
Colonel Maratto stressed that “there has been an increase in simple low level attacks by Daesh or outlaw groups.” But that “[the Coalition] has not observed any indication of a resurgence.”
Colonel Marotto also stated: “Despite what Daesh and outlaw groups claim, they are not attacking the Coalition. They are attacking Iraqi Security Forces civilian contracted logistics convoys or vehicles. They are attacking ISF sites and Iraqi civilians.”
While a lot of these assaults have indeed been on Iraqi personnel, these groups have also managed to fire rockets into bases in which U.S. troops are based, as well as into Baghdad’s Green Zone including the U.S. Embassy. UN personnel have also been targeted by IEDs planted by these organizations.
And now with a confirmed IED on the British diplomatic corps, it is clear these attacks have broadened from just “attacking ISF sites and Iraqi civilians.”
When pressed by FDD’s Long War Journal on this, Col. Marotto again emphasized that “historic attack numbers are down.” While it is true that numbers are in fact down from the height of the Islamic State surge in Iraq from 2014-2017, it is hard to downplay the worrying number of Iranian-backed strikes inside the country since the beginning of the year – especially as two U.S. service members and one UK soldier have so far been killed by these groups.
And with six confirmed attacks by these groups in the last week alone, three of which on high-profile targets, this is further indicative of a worrying trend brewing in Iraq.
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oilprice.com
A Major Power Play In Libya
By Editorial Dept - Sep 18, 2020, 12:00 PM CDT
Libya: A New Twist to Haftar’s Power Play
Turkey would like the world to think that the resignation of the eastern government this week signifies the weakening of General Haftar. The opposite is true. This clears the way for Haftar and weakens Turkey’s power in the country.
Protests that are engulfing Tobruk in eastern Libya—Haftar’s stronghold—may not be what they seem. This week has seen the resignation of the eastern interim government of Abdullah al-Thani. That resignation will make it impossible for Speaker of Parliament Aguila Saleh to agree to any sort of a peace deal with the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli.
Also take note that the protests--particularly intense in the eastern city of Benghazi--have a very specific emphasis: Corruption. And protesters are conveniently calling on the military (read: Haftar) to sort out that corruption—hence al-Thani’s resignation. In other words, al-Thani is linked to Saleh, and Haftar wants them out of the way, which opens the door for the military to assume full control in Benghazi.
Saleh has been a thorn......(rest behind membership/pay wall HC)
Posted for fair use.....
A Major Power Play In Libya | OilPrice.com
The conflict in Libya is at a tipping point, with some key resignations suggesting that General Haftar has gained the upper hand
oilprice.com
A Major Power Play In Libya
By Editorial Dept - Sep 18, 2020, 12:00 PM CDT
Libya: A New Twist to Haftar’s Power Play
Turkey would like the world to think that the resignation of the eastern government this week signifies the weakening of General Haftar. The opposite is true. This clears the way for Haftar and weakens Turkey’s power in the country.
Protests that are engulfing Tobruk in eastern Libya—Haftar’s stronghold—may not be what they seem. This week has seen the resignation of the eastern interim government of Abdullah al-Thani. That resignation will make it impossible for Speaker of Parliament Aguila Saleh to agree to any sort of a peace deal with the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli.
Also take note that the protests--particularly intense in the eastern city of Benghazi--have a very specific emphasis: Corruption. And protesters are conveniently calling on the military (read: Haftar) to sort out that corruption—hence al-Thani’s resignation. In other words, al-Thani is linked to Saleh, and Haftar wants them out of the way, which opens the door for the military to assume full control in Benghazi.
Saleh has been a thorn......(rest behind membership/pay wall HC)
Hummm......
Posted for fair use.....
www.al-monitor.com
Why is Turkey acquiescing to Egypt’s role in Libya?
Egyptian mediation in Libya could prove a silver lining for Turkey as its ability to influence the conflict seems to wane, bearing also on its energy ambitions in the eastern Mediterranean.
Fehim Tastekin
@fehimtastekin
Sep 18, 2020
Turkey appears increasingly pressed to downscale its goals in the conflict in Libya, which has become closely intertwined with its gas exploration rows in the eastern Mediterranean. The course of developments in the region dictates a more realistic attitude from Ankara, including acceptance of Egypt’s role in Libya, provided that certain Turkish expectations are met, and even laying the ground for normalizing ties with Cairo.
With settlement efforts gaining pace, Egypt has proved capable of mediating between the opposing sides in Libya, though it had thrown its weight behind the eastern forces fighting the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and its Misratan allies, which Turkey has backed with military, intelligence and militia support. Ankara’s rigid attitude in the conflict has reduced its clout to influence over only its allies. And the infighting in the GNA presents a further risk to Turkish interests in the upcoming settlement process.
In other words, Turkey has failed to preserve the advantage it gained through its scale-tipping military intervention since the rival parties called for a cease-fire last month, opening the door to negotiations. The arm-wrestling between GNA head Fayez al-Sarraj and his interior minister, Fathi Bashagha, has made Ankara realize that it cannot control everything in Tripoli by deploying soldiers and militia. Certainly, those setbacks do not mean that Turkey will bow out and let others run the show.
The parties in Libya were forced into talks by a stalemate on the battlefield after Egypt drew a red line at the strategically significant Sirte and al-Jufra and Russia reinforced the region in response to Turkey’s military intervention, which had set Sirte, al-Jufra and the Oil Crescent as its next targets after securing Tripoli. An Egyptian-sponsored cease-fire proposal by the eastern forces — represented by Khalifa Hifter, commander of the Libyan National Army, and Aguila Saleh, head of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives — in early June was followed by simultaneous cease-fire calls from Saleh and Sarraj on Aug. 21.
Ensuing street protests across Libya over economic grievances further pushed the parties toward negotiations as the rivalry between Sarraj and Bashagha boiled over in late August. Sarraj suspended Bashagha who, many believed, was eyeing the premier’s post with Turkey’s support, and replaced other key officials in Tripoli. In the east, the popular anger forced the resignation of the government allied with the House of Representatives.
Amid the fast-moving events, Turkey focused on keeping the GNA from unraveling. As a result, Bashagha, whose influence draws on the Misratan forces, was reinstated. Yet Sarraj irritated Ankara by moving to diversify his foreign ties, while reinforcing his position at home. Having already replaced the chief of general staff, Sarraj sought to tighten his grip over security, intelligence and media bodies, promoting figures who irked the Muslim Brotherhood and Misratan groups and even triggered calls for civil disobedience.
Since the Sarraj-Bashagha showdown, many have tended to see an anti-Turkish move in any step Sarraj takes. He seemed to back off from a meeting in Paris, to which Saleh and Hifter were invited as well, after his apparent willingness to attend sparked questioning of his loyalty to Ankara. But Bashagha, too, has been courting France and Egypt, despite leaning on Turkey.
Either way, both actors remain in need of Turkey’s support at present, as evidenced by Sarraj’s Sept. 6 visit to Ankara, shortly after Bashagha’s trip to Turkey that had coincided with his suspension. Sarraj was the one to sign the maritime demarcation deal with Ankara in November 2019, reportedly under Turkish pressure and fears of Tripoli falling to Hifter. The accord, which became a mainstay of Turkey’s gas exploration claims in the eastern Mediterranean, remains without a parliamentary ratification and its survival depends on the survival of the GNA.
On top of all those controversies, Sarraj announced Sept. 16 a desire “to hand over [his] duties to the next executive authority no later than the end of October.” Referring to the settlement efforts, he expressed hope that “the dialogue committee will complete its work and choose a new presidential council and prime minister.”
By speaking of stepping down while trying to consolidate power, Sarraj is believed to be trying to get rid of pressures ahead of prospective peace talks in Geneva. For Ankara, his announcement resonates as a warning: “If I’m gone, the maritime accord is gone as well.” The move, however, might stoke the infighting in Tripoli.
In sum, the balance among its Libyan allies is too fragile to allow Ankara to steer them as it wishes. This, in turn, makes it all the more difficult for Ankara to steer the dialogue between its allies and their eastern opponents.
Delegations from the House of Representatives and Tripoli’s High State Council held five-day talks in Morocco last week, reaching some understandings on power-sharing. The talks sparked objections from several dozen members of both bodies, who complained about the composition of their respective delegations. Khaled Mishri, head of the High State Council who is close to Turkey, said the talks were of consultative nature and not binding for the council.
Also last week, representatives of Sarraj and Saleh held talks in Cairo, agreeing to set a date for elections no later than October 2021, restructure the GNA’s Presidential Council on the basis of a 3+1 formula — one president and two deputies and an independent prime minister — and address economic issues such as wealth management and equitable distribution of resources.
The Cairo meeting followed Sarraj’s latest visit to Ankara, where the mood was far from upbeat. Cairo’s emergence as a platform for reconciliation is not something that Ankara prefers, but also not something that it is seeking to prevent. Turkey’s flexibility can be attributed to several reasons. Above all, Ankara realizes that Libya’s main oil fields have gone beyond its reach after the Russian buildup in Sirte and al-Jufra and that it will now remain stuck in the Tripoli-Misrata enclave. And with the fragile coalition in Tripoli creaking, Ankara has no option but to give way to negotiations.
In return for acquiescing to Egypt’s role, Turkey hopes to make certain gains, namely the sidelining of Hifter as a solution partner and the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) exclusion from the settlement process.
The talks in Cairo were limited to representatives of Saleh and Sarraj, thus meeting Ankara’s reservation on Hifter. And if Egypt’s mediation would push back the role of the UAE, the chief sponsor of the 14-month siege on Tripoli, that would be a lesser evil for Ankara, which sees Emirate interference in its areas of interest as more dangerous.
Another factor compelling Turkey to acquiesce to Egypt’s role is Russia’s influential posture on the ground. It was Russia’s delicate engineering that raised Saleh’s profile on the eastern camp at the expense of Hifter. Hence, Russia is Turkey’s only channel to exert influence on the eastern forces.
Last but not least, breaking the ice with Egypt in Libya might give Turkey room to maneuver to pull Egypt away from Greece, its chief adversary in the eastern Mediterranean. Last month, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed ongoing contacts with Egypt on the level of intelligence officials amid growing calls in Turkey, led by influential retired generals, to mend fences with Egypt and Israel to break Turkey’s isolation in the eastern Mediterranean. While Ankara’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood — Cairo’s archenemy — remains a fundamental stumbling block, Turkey’s allies in Libya, too, acknowledge that Egypt is a crucial neighbor and has legitimate security concerns.
More from Fehim Tastekin
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Why is Turkey acquiescing to Egypt’s role in Libya?
Egyptian mediation in Libya could prove a silver lining for Turkey as its ability to influence the conflict seems to wane, bearing also on its energy ambitions in the eastern Mediterranean.
www.al-monitor.com
Why is Turkey acquiescing to Egypt’s role in Libya?
Egyptian mediation in Libya could prove a silver lining for Turkey as its ability to influence the conflict seems to wane, bearing also on its energy ambitions in the eastern Mediterranean.
Fehim Tastekin
@fehimtastekin
Sep 18, 2020
Turkey appears increasingly pressed to downscale its goals in the conflict in Libya, which has become closely intertwined with its gas exploration rows in the eastern Mediterranean. The course of developments in the region dictates a more realistic attitude from Ankara, including acceptance of Egypt’s role in Libya, provided that certain Turkish expectations are met, and even laying the ground for normalizing ties with Cairo.
With settlement efforts gaining pace, Egypt has proved capable of mediating between the opposing sides in Libya, though it had thrown its weight behind the eastern forces fighting the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and its Misratan allies, which Turkey has backed with military, intelligence and militia support. Ankara’s rigid attitude in the conflict has reduced its clout to influence over only its allies. And the infighting in the GNA presents a further risk to Turkish interests in the upcoming settlement process.
In other words, Turkey has failed to preserve the advantage it gained through its scale-tipping military intervention since the rival parties called for a cease-fire last month, opening the door to negotiations. The arm-wrestling between GNA head Fayez al-Sarraj and his interior minister, Fathi Bashagha, has made Ankara realize that it cannot control everything in Tripoli by deploying soldiers and militia. Certainly, those setbacks do not mean that Turkey will bow out and let others run the show.
The parties in Libya were forced into talks by a stalemate on the battlefield after Egypt drew a red line at the strategically significant Sirte and al-Jufra and Russia reinforced the region in response to Turkey’s military intervention, which had set Sirte, al-Jufra and the Oil Crescent as its next targets after securing Tripoli. An Egyptian-sponsored cease-fire proposal by the eastern forces — represented by Khalifa Hifter, commander of the Libyan National Army, and Aguila Saleh, head of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives — in early June was followed by simultaneous cease-fire calls from Saleh and Sarraj on Aug. 21.
Ensuing street protests across Libya over economic grievances further pushed the parties toward negotiations as the rivalry between Sarraj and Bashagha boiled over in late August. Sarraj suspended Bashagha who, many believed, was eyeing the premier’s post with Turkey’s support, and replaced other key officials in Tripoli. In the east, the popular anger forced the resignation of the government allied with the House of Representatives.
Amid the fast-moving events, Turkey focused on keeping the GNA from unraveling. As a result, Bashagha, whose influence draws on the Misratan forces, was reinstated. Yet Sarraj irritated Ankara by moving to diversify his foreign ties, while reinforcing his position at home. Having already replaced the chief of general staff, Sarraj sought to tighten his grip over security, intelligence and media bodies, promoting figures who irked the Muslim Brotherhood and Misratan groups and even triggered calls for civil disobedience.
Since the Sarraj-Bashagha showdown, many have tended to see an anti-Turkish move in any step Sarraj takes. He seemed to back off from a meeting in Paris, to which Saleh and Hifter were invited as well, after his apparent willingness to attend sparked questioning of his loyalty to Ankara. But Bashagha, too, has been courting France and Egypt, despite leaning on Turkey.
Either way, both actors remain in need of Turkey’s support at present, as evidenced by Sarraj’s Sept. 6 visit to Ankara, shortly after Bashagha’s trip to Turkey that had coincided with his suspension. Sarraj was the one to sign the maritime demarcation deal with Ankara in November 2019, reportedly under Turkish pressure and fears of Tripoli falling to Hifter. The accord, which became a mainstay of Turkey’s gas exploration claims in the eastern Mediterranean, remains without a parliamentary ratification and its survival depends on the survival of the GNA.
On top of all those controversies, Sarraj announced Sept. 16 a desire “to hand over [his] duties to the next executive authority no later than the end of October.” Referring to the settlement efforts, he expressed hope that “the dialogue committee will complete its work and choose a new presidential council and prime minister.”
By speaking of stepping down while trying to consolidate power, Sarraj is believed to be trying to get rid of pressures ahead of prospective peace talks in Geneva. For Ankara, his announcement resonates as a warning: “If I’m gone, the maritime accord is gone as well.” The move, however, might stoke the infighting in Tripoli.
In sum, the balance among its Libyan allies is too fragile to allow Ankara to steer them as it wishes. This, in turn, makes it all the more difficult for Ankara to steer the dialogue between its allies and their eastern opponents.
Delegations from the House of Representatives and Tripoli’s High State Council held five-day talks in Morocco last week, reaching some understandings on power-sharing. The talks sparked objections from several dozen members of both bodies, who complained about the composition of their respective delegations. Khaled Mishri, head of the High State Council who is close to Turkey, said the talks were of consultative nature and not binding for the council.
Also last week, representatives of Sarraj and Saleh held talks in Cairo, agreeing to set a date for elections no later than October 2021, restructure the GNA’s Presidential Council on the basis of a 3+1 formula — one president and two deputies and an independent prime minister — and address economic issues such as wealth management and equitable distribution of resources.
The Cairo meeting followed Sarraj’s latest visit to Ankara, where the mood was far from upbeat. Cairo’s emergence as a platform for reconciliation is not something that Ankara prefers, but also not something that it is seeking to prevent. Turkey’s flexibility can be attributed to several reasons. Above all, Ankara realizes that Libya’s main oil fields have gone beyond its reach after the Russian buildup in Sirte and al-Jufra and that it will now remain stuck in the Tripoli-Misrata enclave. And with the fragile coalition in Tripoli creaking, Ankara has no option but to give way to negotiations.
In return for acquiescing to Egypt’s role, Turkey hopes to make certain gains, namely the sidelining of Hifter as a solution partner and the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) exclusion from the settlement process.
The talks in Cairo were limited to representatives of Saleh and Sarraj, thus meeting Ankara’s reservation on Hifter. And if Egypt’s mediation would push back the role of the UAE, the chief sponsor of the 14-month siege on Tripoli, that would be a lesser evil for Ankara, which sees Emirate interference in its areas of interest as more dangerous.
Another factor compelling Turkey to acquiesce to Egypt’s role is Russia’s influential posture on the ground. It was Russia’s delicate engineering that raised Saleh’s profile on the eastern camp at the expense of Hifter. Hence, Russia is Turkey’s only channel to exert influence on the eastern forces.
Last but not least, breaking the ice with Egypt in Libya might give Turkey room to maneuver to pull Egypt away from Greece, its chief adversary in the eastern Mediterranean. Last month, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed ongoing contacts with Egypt on the level of intelligence officials amid growing calls in Turkey, led by influential retired generals, to mend fences with Egypt and Israel to break Turkey’s isolation in the eastern Mediterranean. While Ankara’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood — Cairo’s archenemy — remains a fundamental stumbling block, Turkey’s allies in Libya, too, acknowledge that Egypt is a crucial neighbor and has legitimate security concerns.
More from Fehim Tastekin
Does France’s failure in Mali spell a victory for Turkey?
Sep 14, 2020
What is Turkey’s role in Tripoli political tremor?
Sep 3, 2020
Turkey’s militarized Africa opening fuels influence wars
Aug 31, 2020
CaryC
Has No Life - Lives on TB
What with all the peace talks of Sunni's in the Abraham Accord, between possible descendants of Abraham, who MAY make up those who don't go to war with Israel in Eze. 38-9.
In the mean time in other news:
US Sends More Armored Infantry Units Into Syria Amid Increased Russian Presence
US Sends More Armored Infantry Units Into Syria Amid Increased Russian Presence
Amid increasing tense encounters between American and Russian military convoys in northeast Syria, which in at least one recent encounter ended in a ramming incident, additional US mechanized infantry units have been ordered into Syria on Friday, including Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
“CJTF-OIR plans to position mechanized infantry assets, including Bradley Fighting Vehicles, to Syria to ensure the protection of Coalition forces and preserve their freedom of movement so they may continue Defeat Daesh operations safely,” the Pentagon said in a press release.
Ostensibly the counter-ISIS mission was offered as the prime rationale, but it's clear it has more to do with the ratcheting cat-and-mouse encounters between US and Russian forces, which could at any moment result in an exchange of fire incident.
Ironically Trump at the same time told White House reporters that "we are out of Syria" but troops only remain solely with a mission of "guarding the oil."
Meanwhile Russia is appearing to get more involved in determining the future political fate of Syria, as reported by The New Arab this week:
"Russia has now thrown its weight behind the UN supported Syrian Constitutional Committee, which involves members of the regime, opposition, and civil society and viewed as perhaps the best solution on offer to ending the war," The New Arab report concludes.
In the mean time in other news:
US Sends More Armored Infantry Units Into Syria Amid Increased Russian Presence
US Sends More Armored Infantry Units Into Syria Amid Increased Russian Presence
Amid increasing tense encounters between American and Russian military convoys in northeast Syria, which in at least one recent encounter ended in a ramming incident, additional US mechanized infantry units have been ordered into Syria on Friday, including Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
“CJTF-OIR plans to position mechanized infantry assets, including Bradley Fighting Vehicles, to Syria to ensure the protection of Coalition forces and preserve their freedom of movement so they may continue Defeat Daesh operations safely,” the Pentagon said in a press release.
Ostensibly the counter-ISIS mission was offered as the prime rationale, but it's clear it has more to do with the ratcheting cat-and-mouse encounters between US and Russian forces, which could at any moment result in an exchange of fire incident.
Ironically Trump at the same time told White House reporters that "we are out of Syria" but troops only remain solely with a mission of "guarding the oil."
Meanwhile Russia is appearing to get more involved in determining the future political fate of Syria, as reported by The New Arab this week:
Amid a rapidly deteriorating economic situation given far-reaching US-led sanctions, Moscow apparently wants to arrive at a final political solution fast, ensuring stability but in a way that might end Damascus' international isolation in order to revive the economy.
"Russia has now thrown its weight behind the UN supported Syrian Constitutional Committee, which involves members of the regime, opposition, and civil society and viewed as perhaps the best solution on offer to ending the war," The New Arab report concludes.
Merde.........
Posted for fair use.....
www.arabnews.com
Russian jets strike Syrian rebel-held bastion in heaviest strikes since cease-fire
Smoke billows following a reported Russian airstrike on the western outskirts of the mostly rebel-held Syrian province of Idlib, on September 20, 2020. (AFP)
Updated 5 sec ago
Reuters
September 20, 2020 15:39
AMMAN: Syrian opposition sources said Russian jets bombed rebel-held northwestern Syria on Sunday in the most extensive strikes since a Turkish-Russian deal halted major fighting with a cease-fire nearly six months ago.
Witnesses said the warplanes struck the western outskirts of Idlib city and that there was heavy artillery shelling in the mountainous Jabal al Zawya region in southern Idlib from nearby Syrian army outposts. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
“These 30 raids are by far the heaviest strikes so far since the cease-fire deal,” said Mohammed Rasheed, a former rebel official and a volunteer plane spotter whose network covers the Russian air base in the western coastal province of Latakia.
Other tracking centers said Russian Sukhoi jets hit the Horsh area and Arab Said town, west of the city of Idlib. Unidentified drones also hit two rebel-held towns in the Sahel Al-Ghab plain, west of Hama province.
There has been no wide-scale aerial bombing since a March agreement ended a Russian-backed bombing campaign that displaced over a million people in the region which borders Turkey after months of fighting.
There was no immediate comment from Moscow or the Syrian army who have long accused militant groups who hold sway in the last opposition redoubt of wrecking the cease-fire deal and attacking army-held areas.
The deal between Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin also defused a military confrontation between them after Ankara poured thousands of troops into Idlib province to hold back Russian-backed forces from new advances.
Western diplomats tracking Syria say Moscow piled pressure on Ankara in the latest round of talks on Wednesday to scale down its extensive military presence in Idlib. Turkey has more than ten thousand troops stationed in dozens of bases there, according to opposition sources in touch with Turkish military.
Witnesses say there has been a spike in sporadic shelling from Syrian army outposts against Turkish bases in the last two weeks. Rebels say the Syrian army and its allied militias were amassing troops on front lines.
Two witnesses said a Turkish military column comprising at least 15 armored vehicles was seen overnight entering Syria through the Kafr Lusin border crossing in the direction of a main base in rural Idlib.
Related
3616
Middle-East
US military strengthens deployment in Syria
898
Middle-East
UN warns of possible ‘war crimes’ in Turkish-controlled Syria
Russian jets strike Syrian rebel-held bastion in heaviest strikes since cease-fire
AMMAN: Syrian opposition sources said Russian jets bombed rebel-held northwestern Syria on Sunday in the most extensive strikes since a Turkish-Russian deal halted major fighting with a cease-fire nearly six months ago. Witnesses said the warplanes struck the western outskirts of Idlib city and...
www.arabnews.com
Russian jets strike Syrian rebel-held bastion in heaviest strikes since cease-fire
Smoke billows following a reported Russian airstrike on the western outskirts of the mostly rebel-held Syrian province of Idlib, on September 20, 2020. (AFP)
- 30 areas struck the western outskirts of Idlib city
- There were no immediate reports of casualties
Updated 5 sec ago
Reuters
September 20, 2020 15:39
AMMAN: Syrian opposition sources said Russian jets bombed rebel-held northwestern Syria on Sunday in the most extensive strikes since a Turkish-Russian deal halted major fighting with a cease-fire nearly six months ago.
Witnesses said the warplanes struck the western outskirts of Idlib city and that there was heavy artillery shelling in the mountainous Jabal al Zawya region in southern Idlib from nearby Syrian army outposts. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
“These 30 raids are by far the heaviest strikes so far since the cease-fire deal,” said Mohammed Rasheed, a former rebel official and a volunteer plane spotter whose network covers the Russian air base in the western coastal province of Latakia.
Other tracking centers said Russian Sukhoi jets hit the Horsh area and Arab Said town, west of the city of Idlib. Unidentified drones also hit two rebel-held towns in the Sahel Al-Ghab plain, west of Hama province.
There has been no wide-scale aerial bombing since a March agreement ended a Russian-backed bombing campaign that displaced over a million people in the region which borders Turkey after months of fighting.
There was no immediate comment from Moscow or the Syrian army who have long accused militant groups who hold sway in the last opposition redoubt of wrecking the cease-fire deal and attacking army-held areas.
The deal between Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin also defused a military confrontation between them after Ankara poured thousands of troops into Idlib province to hold back Russian-backed forces from new advances.
Western diplomats tracking Syria say Moscow piled pressure on Ankara in the latest round of talks on Wednesday to scale down its extensive military presence in Idlib. Turkey has more than ten thousand troops stationed in dozens of bases there, according to opposition sources in touch with Turkish military.
Witnesses say there has been a spike in sporadic shelling from Syrian army outposts against Turkish bases in the last two weeks. Rebels say the Syrian army and its allied militias were amassing troops on front lines.
Two witnesses said a Turkish military column comprising at least 15 armored vehicles was seen overnight entering Syria through the Kafr Lusin border crossing in the direction of a main base in rural Idlib.
Related
3616
Middle-East
US military strengthens deployment in Syria
898
Middle-East
UN warns of possible ‘war crimes’ in Turkish-controlled Syria
northern watch
TB Fanatic
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
Azerbaijani soldier martyred in Armenian attack
Azerbaijani soldier martyred in Armenian attack
Armenian provocation, cease-fire violation come in wake of Russia's Kavkaz-2020 military drill with attendance of Yerevan - Anadolu Agency
aa.com.tr
11:51 AM · Sep 21, 2020·Twitter Web App
@EndGameWW3
Azerbaijani soldier martyred in Armenian attack
Azerbaijani soldier martyred in Armenian attack
Armenian provocation, cease-fire violation come in wake of Russia's Kavkaz-2020 military drill with attendance of Yerevan - Anadolu Agency
aa.com.tr
11:51 AM · Sep 21, 2020·Twitter Web App
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
Gantz to fly to Washington to meet with U.S. defense secretary, Pentagon officials
Gantz to fly to Washington to meet with U.S. defense secretary, Pentagon officials
***
haaretz.com
11:35 AM · Sep 21, 2020·Twitter Web App
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
53m
I will stick to my guns. Something is up. For Gantz to be making a trip during a pandemic to meet with U.S. Sec of Defense means there is some sh*t going down behind the scenes.
@EndGameWW3
Gantz to fly to Washington to meet with U.S. defense secretary, Pentagon officials
Gantz to fly to Washington to meet with U.S. defense secretary, Pentagon officials
***
haaretz.com
11:35 AM · Sep 21, 2020·Twitter Web App
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
53m
I will stick to my guns. Something is up. For Gantz to be making a trip during a pandemic to meet with U.S. Sec of Defense means there is some sh*t going down behind the scenes.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
1h
US Defense Secretary: We will stand with our allies to confront Iranian policies in the region
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
1h
I put out the Poll yesterday of chances of war with Iran before the U.S. elections. The U.S./Israel are trying their hardest to get Iran to pull the trigger. A lot of moving pieces between the U.S. and Israel today against Iran. Keep an eye open.
@EndGameWW3
·
1h
US Defense Secretary: We will stand with our allies to confront Iranian policies in the region
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
1h
I put out the Poll yesterday of chances of war with Iran before the U.S. elections. The U.S./Israel are trying their hardest to get Iran to pull the trigger. A lot of moving pieces between the U.S. and Israel today against Iran. Keep an eye open.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
Amichai Stein
@AmichaiStein1
·
15m
#BREAKING: Israel PM Netanyahu has left the goverment meeting "for a conversation of national importance." Told ministers: This is an 'important' conversation
Amichai Stein
@AmichaiStein1
·
15m
#BREAKING: Israel PM Netanyahu has left the goverment meeting "for a conversation of national importance." Told ministers: This is an 'important' conversation
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
Amichai Stein
@AmichaiStein1
·
15m
#BREAKING: Israel PM Netanyahu has left the goverment meeting "for a conversation of national importance." Told ministers: This is an 'important' conversation
Now that so many countries have signed together, does this mean war is in the immediate offing?
Blessed Be
OldArcher, Witch
northern watch
TB Fanatic
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Sadly it looks that way
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
*Sigh* Merde...
Stupid human religio-political tricks...
Blessed Be,
OldArcher, Witch
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
First Squawk
@FirstSquawk
·
1h
FRANCE'S MACRON SAYS ALONG WITH PARTNERS BRITAIN, GERMANY, WILL NOT ACCEPT IRAN'S VIOLATIONS OF 2015 NUCLEAR DEAL
First Squawk
@FirstSquawk
·
1h
FRANCE'S MACRON SAYS ALONG WITH PARTNERS BRITAIN, GERMANY, WILL NOT ACCEPT IRAN'S VIOLATIONS OF 2015 NUCLEAR DEAL
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
AFP news agency
@AFP
·
1h
#BREAKING Rouhani says next US president will have to "surrender" to Iran demands
AFP news agency
@AFP
·
1h
#BREAKING Rouhani says next US president will have to "surrender" to Iran demands
jward
passin' thru
Evan Kohlmann
@IntelTweet
1h
Interestingly, the weapon used in last night's Shiite insurgent rocket attack targeting FOB Union III near the Green Zone in Baghdad was not Katyushas as is typical--but rather apparently involved a makeshift multiple rocket launch system using RPG rounds.
View: https://twitter.com/IntelTweet/status/1308474819256737792?s=20
Other evidence posted by "Sabereen News" suggests that the experimental RPG-based rocket system used to target FOB Union III is part of a broader effort by Shiite insurgents to defeat incoming fire defense systems at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad.
jward
passin' thru
INTELSky
@Intel_Sky
8m
#BREAKING IED attack two logistic conveyes US military in two different area , one in Abu Greab the other on Alheal city.
@Intel_Sky
8m
#BREAKING IED attack two logistic conveyes US military in two different area , one in Abu Greab the other on Alheal city.
jward
passin' thru
Evan Kohlmann
@IntelTweet
41s
Shiite insurgent faction Ashab al-Kahf claims to have telephoned Iraqi companies providing logistical services to the U.S. military, demanding that a specific convoy in Iraq's Salahudeen Province halt its movement because it allegedly "contains dangerous biological materials."
@IntelTweet
41s
Shiite insurgent faction Ashab al-Kahf claims to have telephoned Iraqi companies providing logistical services to the U.S. military, demanding that a specific convoy in Iraq's Salahudeen Province halt its movement because it allegedly "contains dangerous biological materials."
Hummm.....this got lost in the rest of the normal day to day mess......
Posted for fair use.....
www.al-monitor.com
US official alleges Hezbollah stashed ammonium nitrate throughout Europe
The claim came amid a Trump administration push for the EU to fully designate Hezbollah's political wing a terrorist group.
Al-Monitor Staff
Sep 19, 2020
A senior US official has accused Lebanon’s Hezbollah of stockpiling ammonium nitrate at sites in multiple European countries amid a push to get the European Union to designate the organization’s political wing as a terrorist group.
The US State Department’s top counterterrorism official, Nathan Sales, told the American Jewish Committee on Thursday that Hezbollah had transported ammonium nitrate caches via Belgium into France, Spain, Italy, Switzerland and Greece.
“Since 2012, Hezbollah has established caches of ammonium nitrate throughout Europe, by transporting first-aid kits whose cold packs contain the substance,” Sales told reporters on a conference call.
“I can also reveal that significant ammonium nitrate caches have been discovered or destroyed in France, Greece and Italy,” Sales said. “We have reason to believe that this activity is still under way. Ammonium nitrate caches are still suspected throughout Europe,” particularly in Greece, Italy and Spain, he said, providing no further details.
Ammonium nitrate is commonly used as a fertilizer but can be used as an explosive. A huge amount of ammonium nitrate being held at Beirut's port exploded last month, killing more than 200 and causing major damage to the Lebanese capital.
The EU designated Hezbollah’s military wing as a terrorist organization in July 2013, after Hezbollah members blew up an Israeli tourist bus in Bulgaria.
In 2015, the effects of the ruling were demonstrated when a Lebanese national named Hussein Bassam Abdallah was sentenced in Cyprus to six years in prison for participating in a terrorist group and plotting violence after it was discovered he had assembled more than 8 tons of ammonium nitrate.
The United Kingdom and Germany already recognize Hezbollah's political wing as a terrorist group. But some European governments do not consider group's political wing a terrorist group, something Sales said the US government would like to see changed.
The Trump administration is engaged in what it calls a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran and the militias and organizations it supports abroad. The Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran amid accusations Tehran had exploited the deal to expand its influence in the region via proxy militias and ballistic missile development.
The Trump administration has praised recent decisions by Lithuania, Kosovo and Serbia to designate Hezbollah as a whole as a terrorist group. Sales on Thursday also lauded moves by Argentina, Paraguay and Honduras to designate or ban the group over the last two years.
Earlier this week, the US Treasury rolled out sanctions on 47 individuals and entities that it said were likely associated with Hezbollah. The move followed sanctions on two former Lebanese officials accused of providing political favors to the group.
“Hezbollah itself has been perfectly clear, that they do not themselves recognize the distinction between their terrorist operations and so-called political branch," Sales said, adding, “Our sanctions against Hezbollah are and always have been directed at the entirety of the organization.”
Sales said that US efforts to cut off Hezbollah’s funding streams recently led the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, to solicit donations.
“By starving these organizations of resources, you prevent them from committing acts of mass murder,” he said.
Posted for fair use.....
US official alleges Hezbollah stashed ammonium nitrate throughout Europe
The claim came amid a Trump administration push for the EU to fully designate Hezbollah's political wing a terrorist group.
www.al-monitor.com
US official alleges Hezbollah stashed ammonium nitrate throughout Europe
The claim came amid a Trump administration push for the EU to fully designate Hezbollah's political wing a terrorist group.
Al-Monitor Staff
Sep 19, 2020
A senior US official has accused Lebanon’s Hezbollah of stockpiling ammonium nitrate at sites in multiple European countries amid a push to get the European Union to designate the organization’s political wing as a terrorist group.
The US State Department’s top counterterrorism official, Nathan Sales, told the American Jewish Committee on Thursday that Hezbollah had transported ammonium nitrate caches via Belgium into France, Spain, Italy, Switzerland and Greece.
“Since 2012, Hezbollah has established caches of ammonium nitrate throughout Europe, by transporting first-aid kits whose cold packs contain the substance,” Sales told reporters on a conference call.
“I can also reveal that significant ammonium nitrate caches have been discovered or destroyed in France, Greece and Italy,” Sales said. “We have reason to believe that this activity is still under way. Ammonium nitrate caches are still suspected throughout Europe,” particularly in Greece, Italy and Spain, he said, providing no further details.
Ammonium nitrate is commonly used as a fertilizer but can be used as an explosive. A huge amount of ammonium nitrate being held at Beirut's port exploded last month, killing more than 200 and causing major damage to the Lebanese capital.
The EU designated Hezbollah’s military wing as a terrorist organization in July 2013, after Hezbollah members blew up an Israeli tourist bus in Bulgaria.
In 2015, the effects of the ruling were demonstrated when a Lebanese national named Hussein Bassam Abdallah was sentenced in Cyprus to six years in prison for participating in a terrorist group and plotting violence after it was discovered he had assembled more than 8 tons of ammonium nitrate.
The United Kingdom and Germany already recognize Hezbollah's political wing as a terrorist group. But some European governments do not consider group's political wing a terrorist group, something Sales said the US government would like to see changed.
The Trump administration is engaged in what it calls a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran and the militias and organizations it supports abroad. The Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran amid accusations Tehran had exploited the deal to expand its influence in the region via proxy militias and ballistic missile development.
The Trump administration has praised recent decisions by Lithuania, Kosovo and Serbia to designate Hezbollah as a whole as a terrorist group. Sales on Thursday also lauded moves by Argentina, Paraguay and Honduras to designate or ban the group over the last two years.
Earlier this week, the US Treasury rolled out sanctions on 47 individuals and entities that it said were likely associated with Hezbollah. The move followed sanctions on two former Lebanese officials accused of providing political favors to the group.
“Hezbollah itself has been perfectly clear, that they do not themselves recognize the distinction between their terrorist operations and so-called political branch," Sales said, adding, “Our sanctions against Hezbollah are and always have been directed at the entirety of the organization.”
Sales said that US efforts to cut off Hezbollah’s funding streams recently led the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, to solicit donations.
“By starving these organizations of resources, you prevent them from committing acts of mass murder,” he said.