WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean
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northern watch
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jward
passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
Main Point : Armenia and Azerbaijan is a corridor for pipelines transporting oil and gas to world markets. This is why this involves a lot of other countries.
@EndGameWW3
Main Point : Armenia and Azerbaijan is a corridor for pipelines transporting oil and gas to world markets. This is why this involves a lot of other countries.
northern watch
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jward
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Seth Frantzman
@sfrantzman
Middle East security analyst, photog., Phd, Exec Director
@MidEast_Center
@defense_news
@Jerusalem_Post
@TheNatlInterest
@spectator
RTs ≠ endorsement
sethfrantzman.comJoined March 2009
Thread: The entire conflict in Karabakh was likely planned or pushed by Ankara to create a new crisis so the ruling party can invade another country, after having invaded Syria, Iraq and Libya. NATO, EU, UN and US appeasement of Ankara created this.
We can see how it was orchestrated by Ankara by reading the propaganda pro-government media there; orchestrated first through threatening Armenia, then military flights, then claims of "PKK"; this is part of the narrative Ankara always puts forward
We can read the tweets in sequences at Daily Sabah and Yeni Safak and then the statements from Ankara: "Erdogan calls Aliyev and tells him that Turkey is ready to help Azerbaijan in every possible means against Armenia"
We can see how first the internet was shut down by Baku to control information, while telling foreign media about Armenian "aggression"...before 7 hours later claiming Azerbaijan "liberated" areas in "illegally occupied" Karabakh. Narrative switched quickly.
Ever since the illegal invasion, occupation and depopulation of Afrin the message was sent that any invasion is acceptable by Turkey and that there will never be serious attempts at peace. Russia, Iran and China understand this. Other countries in the Middle East know too.
It's hard to keep up with the social media rapidly changing narrative, but you'll see that what began as claims Armenia "attacked" and "imported PKK" is linked to justification for the next phase. No evidence of Armenia "attack" or "PKK" though. But by day two it won't matter.
My articles so far
1-Possibility of Turkey sending Syrians to fight jpost.com/middle-east/is…
2- Basic news story
jpost.com/breaking-news/…
3-How it might affect Middle East jpost.com/middle-east/ar…
4-How it might affect Israel -
Is Turkey planning to recruit Syrians to fight Armenia? Turkey has upped its rhetoric against Armenia in recent days, threatening the country and claiming Armenia is “playing with fire” and alleging Armenia has recruited “terrorists.” Is Turkey planning to recruit Syrians to fight Armenia?
Fighting erupts along Azerbaijan-Armenia border over disputed land Armenia has declared martial law, and has ordered the total mobilization of its military Fighting erupts along Azerbaijan-Armenia border over disputed land
Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes could affect wider Middle East - analysis The end of fighting in 2008 brought a period of relative calm to the Caucuses. But all these conflicts were unresolved. Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes could affect wider Middle East - analysis
Do clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan matter to Israel? - analysis With new peace deals in the Gulf and discussions about what countries might be next to recognize Israel, the Caucuses seem far away. Do clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan matter to Israel? - analysis
The overall context of the Russia-Turkey nexus, regarding air defense and Russia playing both sides is always interesting,
The tweets by @RALee85 are all necessary reading, I'm screenshoting a few because I want to show sequence since July, last two are important
The messaging on the clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan are interesting, on the one hand the claims that "Armenia attacked"...on the other celebratory pro-Turkey social media detailing the "liberation" and conquest of areas by Azerbaijan...
The clear message from Turkey is of a direct alliance against Armenia today; that's not a secret, it's official.
As information moves quickly, if this sequence is correct, along with the mobilization on both sides; rapidly this will become a larger conflict.
Armenia is asking international community, which generally does nothing, to do something...he doesn't realize that the international community no longer exists;
Russia could use this to up the ante in Idlib;
@sfrantzman
Middle East security analyst, photog., Phd, Exec Director
@MidEast_Center
@defense_news
@Jerusalem_Post
@TheNatlInterest
@spectator
RTs ≠ endorsement
sethfrantzman.comJoined March 2009
Thread: The entire conflict in Karabakh was likely planned or pushed by Ankara to create a new crisis so the ruling party can invade another country, after having invaded Syria, Iraq and Libya. NATO, EU, UN and US appeasement of Ankara created this.
We can see how it was orchestrated by Ankara by reading the propaganda pro-government media there; orchestrated first through threatening Armenia, then military flights, then claims of "PKK"; this is part of the narrative Ankara always puts forward
We can read the tweets in sequences at Daily Sabah and Yeni Safak and then the statements from Ankara: "Erdogan calls Aliyev and tells him that Turkey is ready to help Azerbaijan in every possible means against Armenia"
We can see how first the internet was shut down by Baku to control information, while telling foreign media about Armenian "aggression"...before 7 hours later claiming Azerbaijan "liberated" areas in "illegally occupied" Karabakh. Narrative switched quickly.
Ever since the illegal invasion, occupation and depopulation of Afrin the message was sent that any invasion is acceptable by Turkey and that there will never be serious attempts at peace. Russia, Iran and China understand this. Other countries in the Middle East know too.
It's hard to keep up with the social media rapidly changing narrative, but you'll see that what began as claims Armenia "attacked" and "imported PKK" is linked to justification for the next phase. No evidence of Armenia "attack" or "PKK" though. But by day two it won't matter.
My articles so far
1-Possibility of Turkey sending Syrians to fight jpost.com/middle-east/is…
2- Basic news story
jpost.com/breaking-news/…
3-How it might affect Middle East jpost.com/middle-east/ar…
4-How it might affect Israel -
Is Turkey planning to recruit Syrians to fight Armenia? Turkey has upped its rhetoric against Armenia in recent days, threatening the country and claiming Armenia is “playing with fire” and alleging Armenia has recruited “terrorists.” Is Turkey planning to recruit Syrians to fight Armenia?
Fighting erupts along Azerbaijan-Armenia border over disputed land Armenia has declared martial law, and has ordered the total mobilization of its military Fighting erupts along Azerbaijan-Armenia border over disputed land
Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes could affect wider Middle East - analysis The end of fighting in 2008 brought a period of relative calm to the Caucuses. But all these conflicts were unresolved. Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes could affect wider Middle East - analysis
Do clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan matter to Israel? - analysis With new peace deals in the Gulf and discussions about what countries might be next to recognize Israel, the Caucuses seem far away. Do clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan matter to Israel? - analysis
The overall context of the Russia-Turkey nexus, regarding air defense and Russia playing both sides is always interesting,
The tweets by @RALee85 are all necessary reading, I'm screenshoting a few because I want to show sequence since July, last two are important
The messaging on the clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan are interesting, on the one hand the claims that "Armenia attacked"...on the other celebratory pro-Turkey social media detailing the "liberation" and conquest of areas by Azerbaijan...
The clear message from Turkey is of a direct alliance against Armenia today; that's not a secret, it's official.
As information moves quickly, if this sequence is correct, along with the mobilization on both sides; rapidly this will become a larger conflict.
Armenia is asking international community, which generally does nothing, to do something...he doesn't realize that the international community no longer exists;
Russia could use this to up the ante in Idlib;
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Fighting erupts between Armenia, Azerbaijan; 16 killed
Fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces has erupted again over the disputed separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh and a top territorial official says 16 people have been killed and more than 100 others wounded
By AVET DEMOURIAN Associated Press
27 September 2020
The Associated Press
In this image taken from a footage released by Armenian Defense Ministry on Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020, Armenian forces destroy Azerbaijani military vehicle at the contact line of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan. Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan has broken out around the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian Defense Ministry says two Azerbaijani helicopters have been shot down. Ministry spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan also said Armenian forces hit three Azerbaijani tanks. (Armenian Defense Ministry via AP)
YEREVAN, Armenia -- Fighting erupted anew Sunday between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over the disputed separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh and a top territorial official said 16 people were killed and more than 100 wounded, while Azerbaijan’s president said his military has suffered losses.
Armenia also claimed that two Azerbaijani helicopters were shot down and three Azerbaijani tanks were hit by artillery, but Azerbaijan’s defense ministry rejected that claim.
Heavy fighting broke out in the morning in the region that lies within Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since 1994 at the end of a separatist war. It was not immediately clear what sparked the fighting, the heaviest since clashes in July killed 16 people from both sides.
Nagorno-Karabakh authorities reported that shelling hit the region's capital of Stepanakert and the towns of Martakert and Martuni. Armenian Defense Ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan also said Azerbaijani shelling hit within Armenian territory near the town of Vardenis.
Artur Sarkisian, deputy head of the Nagorno-Karabakh army, said that 16 people were killed and more than 100 wounded. It wasn't immediately clear if the figure included both soldiers and civilians. Earlier, the Armenian human rights ombudsman said a woman and child had been killed in the shelling.
Another Armenian Defense Ministry spokeswoman, Shushan Stepanyan, said “the Armenian side” shot down two helicopters and hit three tanks.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev ordered martial law be imposed in some regions of the country and called for a curfew in major cities.
In a televised address to the nation, Aliyev said that “there are losses among the Azerbaijani forces and the civilian population as a result of the Armenian bombardment,” but didn't give further details. He also claimed that “many units of the enemy’s military equipment have been destroyed.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “is conducting intensive contacts in order to induce the parties to cease fire and start negotiations to stabilize the situation,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, called on the sides to stop fighting. The long-unsuccessful negotiations for resolving the territory's status has been conducted under OSCE auspices.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on Sunday said the country could reexamine whether to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as independent. Such a move would likely obstruct further negotiations.
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif of Iran, which borders both Azerbaijan and Armenia, said “We call for an immediate end to hostilities and urge dialogue to resolve differences. Our neighbors are our priority and we are ready to provide good offices to enable talks.”
Turkey’s ruling party spokesman Omer Celik tweeted: “We vehemently condemn Armenia’s attack on Azerbaijan. Armenia has once again committed a provocation, ignoring law.” He promised Turkey would stand by Azerbaijan and said, “Armenia is playing with fire and endangering regional peace.”
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin also condemned Armenia.
“Armenia has violated the cease-fire by attacking civilian settlements ... the international community must immediately say stop to this dangerous provocation," Kalin tweeted.
Mostly mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh — a region around 4,400 square kilometers (1,700 square miles) or about the size of the U.S. state of Delaware — lies 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the Armenian border. Local soldiers backed by Armenia also occupy some Azerbaijani territory outside the region.
———
Jim Heintz in Moscow, Zeynep Bilginsoy in Istanbul and Giada Zampano in Rome contributed to this story.
abcnews.go.com
Fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces has erupted again over the disputed separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh and a top territorial official says 16 people have been killed and more than 100 others wounded
By AVET DEMOURIAN Associated Press
27 September 2020
In this image taken from a footage released by Armenian Defense Ministry on Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020, Armenian forces destroy Azerbaijani military vehicle at the contact line of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan. Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan has broken out around the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian Defense Ministry says two Azerbaijani helicopters have been shot down. Ministry spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan also said Armenian forces hit three Azerbaijani tanks. (Armenian Defense Ministry via AP)
YEREVAN, Armenia -- Fighting erupted anew Sunday between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over the disputed separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh and a top territorial official said 16 people were killed and more than 100 wounded, while Azerbaijan’s president said his military has suffered losses.
Armenia also claimed that two Azerbaijani helicopters were shot down and three Azerbaijani tanks were hit by artillery, but Azerbaijan’s defense ministry rejected that claim.
Heavy fighting broke out in the morning in the region that lies within Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since 1994 at the end of a separatist war. It was not immediately clear what sparked the fighting, the heaviest since clashes in July killed 16 people from both sides.
Nagorno-Karabakh authorities reported that shelling hit the region's capital of Stepanakert and the towns of Martakert and Martuni. Armenian Defense Ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan also said Azerbaijani shelling hit within Armenian territory near the town of Vardenis.
Artur Sarkisian, deputy head of the Nagorno-Karabakh army, said that 16 people were killed and more than 100 wounded. It wasn't immediately clear if the figure included both soldiers and civilians. Earlier, the Armenian human rights ombudsman said a woman and child had been killed in the shelling.
Another Armenian Defense Ministry spokeswoman, Shushan Stepanyan, said “the Armenian side” shot down two helicopters and hit three tanks.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev ordered martial law be imposed in some regions of the country and called for a curfew in major cities.
In a televised address to the nation, Aliyev said that “there are losses among the Azerbaijani forces and the civilian population as a result of the Armenian bombardment,” but didn't give further details. He also claimed that “many units of the enemy’s military equipment have been destroyed.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “is conducting intensive contacts in order to induce the parties to cease fire and start negotiations to stabilize the situation,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, called on the sides to stop fighting. The long-unsuccessful negotiations for resolving the territory's status has been conducted under OSCE auspices.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on Sunday said the country could reexamine whether to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as independent. Such a move would likely obstruct further negotiations.
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif of Iran, which borders both Azerbaijan and Armenia, said “We call for an immediate end to hostilities and urge dialogue to resolve differences. Our neighbors are our priority and we are ready to provide good offices to enable talks.”
Turkey’s ruling party spokesman Omer Celik tweeted: “We vehemently condemn Armenia’s attack on Azerbaijan. Armenia has once again committed a provocation, ignoring law.” He promised Turkey would stand by Azerbaijan and said, “Armenia is playing with fire and endangering regional peace.”
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin also condemned Armenia.
“Armenia has violated the cease-fire by attacking civilian settlements ... the international community must immediately say stop to this dangerous provocation," Kalin tweeted.
Mostly mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh — a region around 4,400 square kilometers (1,700 square miles) or about the size of the U.S. state of Delaware — lies 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the Armenian border. Local soldiers backed by Armenia also occupy some Azerbaijani territory outside the region.
———
Jim Heintz in Moscow, Zeynep Bilginsoy in Istanbul and Giada Zampano in Rome contributed to this story.
Fighting erupts between Armenia, Azerbaijan; 18 killed
Fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces has erupted again over the disputed separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh and the territory's defense ministry says 16 soldiers and two civilians have been killed and more than 100 others wounded
abcnews.go.com
jward
passin' thru
Seth Frantzman
@sfrantzman
The area where the clashes are unfolding in Nagorno-Karabakh area between Armenia and Azerbiajan. Note that Turkey would like to play a larger role. Armenia's position is complex facing a conflict that could escalate. It would require Russia's support to keep air defenses secure.
Updated map with new places listed that have appeared on reports of clashes. No way to verify this so just adding points on the map.
Updated with the seven villages Azerbaijan claimed to have "liberated"
jward
passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
9m
Turkey vows support for Azerbaijan in conflict with Armenia
Turkey vows support for Azerbaijan in conflict with Armenia over separatist Karabakh region
The New Arab Staff & Agencies
Turkey vows support for Azerbaijan in conflict with Armenia over separatist Karabakh region
Erdogan said he would support Azerbaijan 'with all means' [Getty]
Date of publication: 27 September, 2020
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Following the outbreak of fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces on Sunday over the breakaway region of Nagorny Karabakh, Turkish President Erdogan has vowed to support Azerbaijan
Turkey on Sunday vowed complete support for Baku and called on Armenia to give up its "aggression" after heavy fighting erupted in Azerbaijan's breakaway region of Nagorny Karabakh.
The worst clashes since 2016 broke out on Sunday between arch-foes Azerbaijan and Armenia who have been locked for decades in a territorial dispute over Nagorny Karabakh.
Turkey is a key ally of Azerbaijan with close cultural and linguistic ties with Azerbaijan.
Ankara has no diplomatic relations with Yerevan due to a dispute over the mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, which Armenia says is a genocide.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Sunday warned against Turkish interference in the conflict.
"I call on the international community to use all existing levers to prevent Turkey's meddling which can once and for all destabilise the [Caucasus] region," Pashinyan said in a televised statement.
He added that Turkish "aggressive behaviour causes serious concerns," and denounced Ankara's support for its ally Baku.
Read more: Armenia and Azerbaijan - a decades-long and volatile rivalry
"The Turkish people will support our Azerbaijani brothers with all our means as always," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tweeted.
He accused Armenia of "being the biggest threat in the region to peace and stability" and criticised the international community for failing to give the "necessary and sufficient reaction" to Armenia's "aggression".
Erdogan also said he held a phone call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during which he was "witness once again to his shrewd and determined position".
"The greatest obstacle to peace and stability in the Caucasus is Armenia's aggression, and it should give up this aggression which will throw the region into fire," Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said in a statement.
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin "strongly" condemned the clashes and said Armenia "once again violated international law"
He called on the international community to "say stop to this dangerous provocation" in a tweet.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov discussed the crisis on Sunday during a telephone conversation, a Turkish diplomatic source said, without giving details.
Turkey vows support for Azerbaijan in conflict with Armenia
Following the outbreak of fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces on Sunday over the breakaway region of Nagorny Karabakh, Turkish President Erdogan has vowed to support Azerbaijan
jward
passin' thru
Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
3m
BREAKING: "We have lost positions - in the direction of Talish and in the south of Artsakh. There are dozens of dead and dozens of wounded", according to the president of Artsakh Arayik Harutyunyan. This means that Azerbaijan has captured Armenian-held areas
@Faytuks
3m
BREAKING: "We have lost positions - in the direction of Talish and in the south of Artsakh. There are dozens of dead and dozens of wounded", according to the president of Artsakh Arayik Harutyunyan. This means that Azerbaijan has captured Armenian-held areas
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
jward
passin' thru
Doge (BAL 2-0)
@IntelDoge
·
My concern now is that Armenia could trigger Article 4 in CSTO, if the Turkish F-16 claim by President Harutyunyan is accurate. Definitely something to watch.
Article 4 states "If one of the States Parties is subjected to aggression by any state or group of states, then this will be considered as aggression against any of the participating States, all other participating states will provide him with the necessary assistance, --
including military, and will also provide support at their disposal in exercising the right to collective defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter."
@IntelDoge
·
My concern now is that Armenia could trigger Article 4 in CSTO, if the Turkish F-16 claim by President Harutyunyan is accurate. Definitely something to watch.
Article 4 states "If one of the States Parties is subjected to aggression by any state or group of states, then this will be considered as aggression against any of the participating States, all other participating states will provide him with the necessary assistance, --
including military, and will also provide support at their disposal in exercising the right to collective defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter."
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Yeah this could draw in a bunch of countries
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Wow, talk about tangled up.....With all of that, so much for any enforcement of sanctions on Iran for their nuclear program.....
jward
passin' thru
Cavid ⛧
@cavidaga
Late night statement by AzMOD claims casualty of Armenian side as 22 tanks and other armored vehicles, 15 OSA, 18 UAV, 8 artillery, 3 armories and 500 men (both dead and wounded). As usual, they deny any ArmMOD claim.
Statement updated, AzMOD claims more than 550 dead and wounded on Armenian side. Plus a video
View: https://twitter.com/cavidaga/status/1310333120030412800?s=20