WEATHER Official Hurricane Irma Thread- Woo Free

[Warm Wisconsin]

Here is what we know now about Irma

Irma is still very small (25 mile wide Hurricane force winds) but should grow in the next 72 hours

Irma is powerful and organized and will fluctuate in strength for the next 48 hours till it settles on a Cat 3/4.

Edit: Yes this can grow to a Cat 5 in the next week. I was just saying a Cat 3/4 before it turns north.

The big question is when will Irma turn north! The models and forecasts have had to keep adjusting west over the last few days. 30-40 miles difference will make a HUGE difference in where this storm will go.

The chances of this storm going "out to sea" are being reduced by the hour, but are NOT at zero.

The chances of this storm going into the gulf are as small as it going to sea.

Almost every model run at the moment has the storm from Florida to Washington DC. However, yesterday they had it going out to sea. (At least the Euro)

Update:

The storm is growing as expected.

The models are now starting to move to west, but in my opinion to far west. (Models and not NHC forecast) Three days ago the Euro had this going out to Sea, and now it's suggesting a Gulf of Mexico storm.

These models are bi-polar IMHO.

I will still stick with my forecast above - Florida to North Carolina with a slight chance of out to sea.

Gulf of Mexico is a very slight chance.

Still to much uncertainty at this point to know 100%. We might have to wait till Tuesday to know for sure.

 

[Vegas321]

On that run, Havana the Keys,Miami,Palm beach all up to Jacksonville and including Orlando would be wiped out if this run was to ever verify. But again it's a long range for that, and many things change.

My worst fear was to see a solution just like that. Also, the trend continues west. This storm may ride along Cuba or pass through the Keys (very strong,) and enter the GOM and never gets captured at all from the eastern trough.

 

[Vegas321]

Update:

The storm is growing as expected.

The models are now starting to move to west, but in my opinion to far west. (Models and not NHC forecast) Three days ago the Euro had this going out to Sea, and now it's suggesting a Gulf of Mexico storm.

These models are bi-polar IMHO.

I will still stick with my forecast above - Florida to North Carolina with a slight chance of out to sea.

Gulf of Mexico is a very slight chance.

Still to much uncertainty at this point to know 100%. We might have to wait till Tuesday to know for sure.

With the latest GFS run. The GOM odds are going up. What is going down, is the OTS solution or hitting the NE.

 

[BornFree]

The way I read his tweets he has not 'called it' yet.
He's still talking plenty about where it could wander off to.

Go look/see at them yourself here...
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

- Shane

I watched his Sunday video(in daily updates) which appeared at weatherbell. He sure seemed to call it in that.

 

[Night Owl]

Does anyone think it may hit Miami and NEW ORLEANS AGAIN? This is the Lastest update imaging

 

[Vegas321]

ECMWF 0Z is now running. Hour 72. Center just NE of PR. Getting strong tropical and some hurricane winds. Pressure is 959mb. Low CAT 3 with winds around 115-120 MPH at the core.

 

[Virtualco]

I'm hoping a slight bend northward. Sorry Jacksonville...

 

[Vegas321]

ECMWF 0Z (EURO Model,) is stuck at hour 72. People are reporting the ECMWF system itself has crashed. It's not with the feeder site.


If nothing happens in the next few minutes, i'm off to bed. It's been out for 25 minutes now.

 

[Vegas321]

Ok, back in business...

ECMWF 0Z at hour 96. Pressure at 949mb Strong CAT 3, Maybe a 4 with winds around 125-135 MPH. Just north of Hispaniola and entering the southern Bahamas.

 

[Vegas321]

ECMWF 0Z at hour 120. Pressure at 944mb. CAT 4 storm with winds 135-140 mph "just" north of Cuba. Cuba's shores are getting hit with 100 mph winds with gust to 120.

 

[Vegas321]

ECMWF 0Z at hour 144. Pressure at 952mb. Makes landfall on North Central Cuba as a CAT 4

 

[Vegas321]

ECMWF 0Z at hour 168. Turns DUE NORTH! Sitting just East of Miami at 934mb. as a CAT 4

 

[Vegas321]

ECMWF 0Z at hour 192. A strong CAT 4 with 140 MPH just east of Jacksonville, with the center about 100-125 off shore.

 

[Vegas321]

ECMWF 0Z at hour 216. Slams into SC/NC boarder as a CAT 4 with 140 MPH winds.

And there you have it...

 

[tanstaafl]

It seems to me that at one time or another I recall reading something about how a direct hit on Miami with a Cat 5 was on the same list of official disaster terror as a direct hit on New Orleans, New York City, and another 1938 hurricane ripping across the Northeast (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane). We've had New Orleans (Katrina), New York (Sandy), and now Houston (Harvey), so maybe the people who should REALLY be worried are those in the Miami metro area.

 

[Vegas321]

The GFS and EURO Models are very close on track ATM except, the GFS has lower pressures and stronger winds.

See how the models behave tomorrow through Tuesday. Right now, the models are getting in better agreement past 120 hours-192. That's concerning...

 

[Lilbitsnana]

from s2k

recon data

Yeap, pressure down to 951mb, incredible drop during the night.

URNT12 KWBC 040948
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 04/09:04:14Z
B. 16 deg 47 min N
052 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2674 m
D. 107 kt
E. 135 deg 9 nm
F. 212 deg 99 kt
G. 126 deg 8 nm
H. 951 mb
I. 12 C / 3063 m
J. 15 C / 3284 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0211A IRMA OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 117 KT 315 / 12 NM 09:06:56Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 135 / 08 KTS

 

[CGTech]

September 3, 2017: Any landfall of a anywhere of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane is not going to be a good scenario, especially if the area is dealing with sea level rise prior to a landfall and thousands of residents living on the coast in high-rise buildings. The storm is strengthening and lets hope that doesn't happen. http://news.brevardtimes.com/2017/08/... https://www.scientificamerican.com/ar... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov #MrMBB333 SUBSCRIBE for UPDATES Website: https://www.mrmbb333.com **Subscribe to my channels below** YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MrMBB333 (Subscribe) CLIMATE CHAOS Channel YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCItd... Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pg/MrMBB333 Twitter: https://twitter.com/MrMBB333 Google+: https://plus.google.com/+MrMBB333 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mrmbb333

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVuzyZA1uJM

 

[Lilbitsnana]

Even thought it will change again, as of 06z GFS now has it coming into S FLorida (strong cat 3 in keys; low cat 3 when entering FL) with the eye going up along the Gulf Coast side for a little bit and then turning inland into the lower SW FL and then going up thru FL and into GA.

like I said....it will most likely change again, so we will wait and see, but the GOM/FL are much more certain looking

this one below shows the max model forecast winds in the top right (advance frames fwd/backward to see other times)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...n=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090406&fh=168

ETA: when the models are shown out to 240 hrs (these gifs only go out to 204) then it ends up in the MO/IL area

https://image.ibb.co/kMOdYa/gfs_mslp_uv850_seus_fh162_204.gif


sorry, I'm not sure how to embed it so link is above in case it doesn't work

 

[Hfcomms]

Well, the only 'good' thing about this hurricane is it appears to be moving at a pretty good clip as most of them do. It's not going to sit and meander over the same area like Harvey did. Whatever Irma does she is going to do quickly and then move on out. And as a reminder don't get too fixated over one computer model such as the GFS. There are numerous models, some better than others but it's still way too early to know precisely what Irma is going to do. However, if you live in the Florida panhandle or on the eastern side along and up the east coast you better be preparing and get your stuff. Everyone is fixated on North Korea and labor day right now. When the storm watches start going on later today and tomorrow people will start to pay attention. If you need anything including your bottled water and topping off your fuel do it today.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

Well, the only 'good' thing about this hurricane is it appears to be moving at a pretty good clip as most of them do. It's not going to sit and meander over the same area like Harvey did. Whatever Irma does she is going to do quickly and then move on out. And as a reminder don't get too fixated over one computer model such as the GFS. There are numerous models, some better than others but it's still way too early to know precisely what Irma is going to do. However, if you live in the Florida panhandle or on the eastern side along and up the east coast you better be preparing and get your stuff. Everyone is fixated on North Korea and labor day right now. When the storm watches start going on later today and tomorrow people will start to pay attention. If you need anything including your bottled water and topping off your fuel do it today.

Anyone from western MS border to the East Coast should be paying attention and at least start checking things over and seeing what needs replaced, etc.


I don't think it will come into LA (other than maybe some outer bands) but it does keep moving west.

 

[prudentwatcher]

Well, I live in the middle of Florida between Orlando and Jacksonville, so some of these predictions are scary. I was in Walmart last night and they had NO water. I stay pretty well stocked up on things, but wouldn't mind getting another 4-6 cases of water. Will definitely get some more tarps this afternoon. And will be keeping a very close eye on this one.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

Well, I live in the middle of Florida between Orlando and Jacksonville, so some of these predictions are scary. I was in Walmart last night and they had NO water. I stay pretty well stocked up on things, but wouldn't mind getting another 4-6 cases of water. Will definitely get some more tarps this afternoon. And will be keeping a very close eye on this one.

Lots of people all over FL reported last night that their local stores were out of water.

At least there is still quite a bit of time for a few restocks at the store.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

from NHC


000
WTNT31 KNHC 041148
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IRMA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.6W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

 

[2x2]

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Irma is running in a "clean" channel from east to west with no upward pressure from the lower boundary of said channel to turn Irma north. The upper boundary looks to be squeezed downward as indicated by the thin clouds rotating down wards.
The far west end of this channel is retreating even farther west as indicated by the clouds rotating or sliding west. Irma may not turn until it hits the Gulf of Mex.
Irma needs to turn soon or just keep going west.

 

[Hfcomms]

I was in Walmart last night and they had NO water.

Gallon sized distilled water perhaps? Unless all that was scarfed up as well. One thing you can do of course although it's not convenient is to put up your own. Get a bunch of 2 liter pop bottles if you don't already have them and fill them up. You could also get some 5 gallon plastic jugs that are used to store either gas or kerosene. Gas jugs might be selling out but the blue kerosene ones are probably in stock and you could use those. Also consider a water filtration device then you don't need to store so much water. If you don't already have one you can jump on line and get one from Amazon and have it to you within two days at a reasonable price.

 

[Snyper]

You can also use large trash bags to line most any container and use it to hold water. It doesn't have to be anything fancy or expensive.

Save the bottled stuff to drink and use the bulk for flushing and bathing.

 

[Martinhouse]

I once filled a bunch of standard sized plastic trashcans with water and stored them on the north side of my house where the sun couldn't shine on them. After a few months, the sides down at the bottom of about half of the cans blew out. Cracks running vertically from the ground and up about four to six inches.

If I ever do this again, I will first tightly wrap at least the bottom ten inches of each trashcan with duct tape. Probably Gorilla tape, since the regular stuff, even name brand, isn't worth a poop any more.

 

[Martinhouse]

If you want to use a big container like a flower pot to store water, one with holes in it, put an old rag rug, or equivalent, in the bottom of the pot before you line it with the plastic bag. That will keep the plastic from bulging through the holes and bursting. Whatever you use will be greatly compressed, so be sure it will still be thick enough after it's compressed.

 

[Jonas Parker]

Made the grocery run yesterday, before the rest of the folks in town figure out what's coming at us. If Irma goes the way I think she will, things should get exciting here by the end of the week as the natives go into "panic mode".

 

[SmithJ]

The Georgia and Carolina coasts will play hell evacuating if gas is still in short supply with the colonial pipeline shut in or running at reduced capacity!

 

[ontheright]

Recon coming in for another pass into #Irma's eye. Real-time data available here: https://t.co/BK4OQ0MJkl https://t.co/r6Z0a6HhPV

 

[ontheright]

Even thought it will change again, as of 06z GFS now has it coming into S FLorida (strong cat 3 in keys; low cat 3 when entering FL) with the eye going up along the Gulf Coast side for a little bit and then turning inland into the lower SW FL and then going up thru FL and into GA.

like I said....it will most likely change again, so we will wait and see, but the GOM/FL are much more certain looking

this one below shows the max model forecast winds in the top right (advance frames fwd/backward to see other times)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...n=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090406&fh=168


https://image.ibb.co/kMOdYa/gfs_mslp_uv850_seus_fh162_204.gif


sorry, I'm not sure how to embed it so link is above in case it doesn't work

Great right over my new house

 

[Warm Wisconsin]

The Georgia and Carolina coasts will play hell evacuating if gas is still in short supply with the colonial pipeline shut in or running at reduced capacity!

That is a very good point. Get gas now this will be a problem

 

[ontheright]

#Irma forecast shifted more to the west. Now moving WNW 14 mph. Max winds 120 mph. Florida impacts pos by Saturday. Must monitor @wdsu https://t.co/5M7Lw8viyh

Check out @MargaretOrrs Tweet: https://twitter.com/MargaretOrr/status/904699237966983169?s=09

 

[The Traveler]

Even thought it will change again, as of 06z GFS now has it coming into S FLorida (strong cat 3 in keys; low cat 3 when entering FL) with the eye going up along the Gulf Coast side for a little bit and then turning inland into the lower SW FL and then going up thru FL and into GA.

like I said....it will most likely change again, so we will wait and see, but the GOM/FL are much more certain looking

this one below shows the max model forecast winds in the top right (advance frames fwd/backward to see other times)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...n=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090406&fh=168


https://image.ibb.co/kMOdYa/gfs_mslp_uv850_seus_fh162_204.gif


sorry, I'm not sure how to embed it so link is above in case it doesn't work

Damn that run of the GFS is 100 miles further west than the run Vegas posted last night.

 

[Hfcomms]

Made the grocery run yesterday, before the rest of the folks in town figure out what's coming at us. If Irma goes the way I think she will, things should get exciting here by the end of the week as the natives go into "panic mode".

Especially with what happened with Harvey still fresh in everyone's mind. Come tomorrow once Labor Day is over the mind of the hive will start buzzing so git her done today.

 

[The Traveler]

#Irma forecast shifted more to the west. Now moving WSW 14 mph. Max winds 120 mph. Florida impacts pos by Saturday. Must monitor @wdsu https://t.co/5M7Lw8viyh

Check out @MargaretOrrs Tweet: https://twitter.com/MargaretOrr/status/904699237966983169?s=09

FIFY

 

[psychgirl]

So, being in Athens/Atlanta area this weekend isn't looking so hot right now if you ask me.
I hate to make this "all about me", truly I'm not. I'm paranoid about the trip as it is anyway and driving into torrential rains isn't making me feel too good.

 

[summerthyme]

I once filled a bunch of standard sized plastic trashcans with water and stored them on the north side of my house where the sun couldn't shine on them. After a few months, the sides down at the bottom of about half of the cans blew out. Cracks running vertically from the ground and up about four to six inches.

If I ever do this again, I will first tightly wrap at least the bottom ten inches of each trashcan with duct tape. Probably Gorilla tape, since the regular stuff, even name brand, isn't worth a poop any more.

Rather than that, go with good galvanized cans, or look for a source of blue barrels that held food. Probably be cheaper in the long run.

For storing just a few gallons of your own water, Wal-Mart and other places sell containers with spigot that hold anywhere from 1 to 5 gallons. I started filling up a couple with our artesian well water and sending it home with our son and his wife every time they visit. It saves them a few bucks on purchased water.

Like this:
https://www.amazon.com/Arrow-Produc...d=1504533719&sr=8-4&keywords=Water+containers
Summerthyme