HEALTH MAIN EBOLA DISCUSSION THREAD -09/01/14 - 09/15/14

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Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
It is being widely reported that "they" think it will take 18 months for the Ebola epidemic in West Africa to burn out. Kris, assuming a doubling of cases every two weeks, with a 2 or more rate, I am thinking we will see several million dead over the next three months: October, November and December. Please tell me my math is wrong!
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
It is being widely reported that "they" think it will take 18 months for the Ebola epidemic in West Africa to burn out. Kris, assuming a doubling of cases every two weeks, with a 2 or more rate, I am thinking we will see several million dead over the next three months: October, November and December. Please tell me my math is wrong!

Here is an actual screen shot of my spreadsheet...I can change the R0 in the upper left as necessary and then the numbers all re-compute. It is currently set for the 2.785 R0 we had coming out of August 2014. The numbers speak for themselves...IF NOTHING CHANGES...which of course IT WILL...but in which direction and when?
 

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Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
Doug:

To "double every week" translates into a "measles level" infection rate of R0 = 16. While Ebola is indeed very INFECTIOUS, it, so far, has not shown to be THAT contagious. Measles is somewhat airborne which is why the R0 is so high and why it is so contagious and will sweep through a population extremely quickly.

Until we see new numbers from WHO (yea, I know drastically decreasing accuracy on that front), I have seen no actual EVIDENCE of doubling every week other than hyperbolic comments to that effect.

For grins, I cranked 16 in as the R0 going forward and we're at 230 million infected with over half of them dead by Christmas. Then its all over for the whole world by the first or second week of February 2015...with 7+ billion infected or exposed and 3.8 billion dead assuming the CFR holds at 53%.

So far, I do not see REAL evidence that R0 is now 16. But I need real DATA!
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
WOW, KRIS!

It took six months, March to August, 2014 to get the first 3,685 "official dead."
It took one month, September, to add another 7,000 plus dead. This is the 100 percent increase every two weeks. 3600 plus 3,600 plus 3600 gets you to the 10, 263.

October adds another 18,000 plus.
November adds over 50,000 additional deaths.
December adds close enough for government work 140,000 dead.

By September 2015 we will have nearly 2 and one half BILLION DEAD, assuming nothing changes regarding Ebola.

Yep, we are going to have nearly one quarter million dead by the end of the year. After that, complete chaos will break out everywhere in the world.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
DATA FLAWS

We have no idea of what is really going on, Kris.

I just look at what I can find, try to make an intelligent deduction and roll the dice.

The kind of official numbers are showing explosive growth in Ebola cases and death.

It was less than three weeks ago we had 1,250 "official" cases. We now have nearly 4,000. This is where I get the doubling every two weeks rate. If you factor in the times four rate you will indeed start to get to the 16 rate for Measles you mentioned.

At any rate, even the WHO official numbers show the 2 rate is way low for what the evidence is now showing.
 

joannita

Veteran Member
Cuba is sending 165 health workers to help tackle the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, officials say.

Doctors, nurses and infection control specialists will travel to Sierra Leone in October and stay for six months.

The announcement comes as the World Health Organization says new cases in West Africa are increasing faster than the capacity to manage them.

More than 2,400 people have died from the virus in recent months and some 4,700 people have been infected.

Continue reading the main story

Start Quote
I am extremely grateful for the generosity of the Cuban government and these health professionals”
End Quote
Dr Margaret Chan

WHO

The death toll remains highest in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

World Health Organization (WHO) officials say the number of people affected is likely to be much greater than current estimates suggest.

In Liberia WHO experts say there is not a single bed left to treat patients with Ebola.

But the world football association, Fifa, says it is joining forces with the United Nations to turn the country's national stadium into a large-scale Ebola treatment unit.

Dr Margaret Chan, director of the WHO, said: "If we are going to go to war with Ebola we need the resources to fight.

"I am extremely grateful for the generosity of the Cuban government and these health professionals for doing their part to help us contain the worst Ebola outbreak ever known."

'Health diplomacy'

She added: "Cuba is world-famous for its ability to train outstanding doctors and nurses and for its generosity in helping fellow countries on the route to progress."

Through a global medical programme, doctors have been deployed to a range of countries, from Algeria to South Africa.

And many consider this medical help to be a central part of Cuba's international relations.

One of Cuba's most extensive efforts is an eye surgery programme in Venezuela where thousands of cataract operations have been performed.

Hundreds of Cuban medical workers were sent to Haiti during the earthquake in 2010.

The country also trains thousands of overseas medical students, many of whom return to their home nations to work.
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-29174923
Ebola virus disease (EVD)
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
WOW, KRIS!

It took six months, March to August, 2014 to get the first 3,685 "official dead."
It took one month, September, to add another 7,000 plus dead. This is the 100 percent increase every two weeks. 3600 plus 3,600 plus 3600 gets you to the 10, 263.

October adds another 18,000 plus.
November adds over 50,000 additional deaths.
December adds close enough for government work 140,000 dead.

By September 2015 we will have nearly 2 and one half BILLION DEAD, assuming nothing changes regarding Ebola.

Yep, we are going to have nearly one quarter million dead by the end of the year. After that, complete chaos will break out everywhere in the world.

I think you are looking at the INFECTED column...AND those numbers are already CUMULATIVE...not what happened that month...those are what the MONTH-END numbers TOTAL for the entire outbreak are by that point.
 

Be Well

may all be well
From PFI, I'm stealing time so I can't take time to do the bolding Pixie did.

The situation there is 100% heart breaking and if other countries, the UN, WHO etc are supposedly looking out for stuff like this, had done ANYTHING AT ALL it would not be this bad.

As Ebola cases accelerate, Liberia’s sick must fend for themselves.

By Lenny Bernstein September 13 at 2:44 PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...71468-3b61-11e4-9c9f-ebb47272e40e_story.html?

MONROVIA, Liberia — Steps from a chance at salvation, or at least a less excruciating death, Comfort Zeyemoh walked slowly on Saturday from the Ebola treatment center, one of only three in a city that has been brought to its knees by the lethal virus.

The center was nearly full, and Zeyemoh, 22, wasn’t sick enough to gain entry, though she had started vomiting the night before and was feeling weak. Those are telltale signs of the infection that claims the lives of more than half its victims.

“They sent us here for a checkup,” said her boyfriend, Moses Sackie, outside the Doctgors Without Borders facility. “Now they are telling us to wait for three days.”

With each day, the small group of caregivers trying to cope with the worst outbreak of Ebola on record falls farther and farther behind, as the pace of transmission of the virus rapidly accelerates. Facilities are full of the sick, and an increasing number of infected people are being turned away, left to fend for themselves.

The epidemic has killed more than 2,200 people in five African countries, and now poses a threat to Liberia’s “national existence,” according to its defense minister. Even worse, however, is what the World Health Organization has called its “exponential” growth in recent weeks, especially in Liberia.

The Doctors Without Borders center here has 160 beds and will add 25 more on Monday; at the moment it needs 1,200 — and a corresponding increase in staff — to cope with the epidemic, said Sophie-Jane Madden, a spokesman for the organization. As Ebola begins to race through this city, that number is certain to increase.

“We’re just running behind the virus, aren’t we?” Madden said, “And taking the sickest people because we don’t have the capacity.” On Friday, 23 people were admitted, 25 were turned away, nine died and seven were released after recovering, she said.

Those deaths and discharges lead to the opening of occasional slots at the center, prompting the sick to arrive each day, hopeful that their timing and symptoms will get them past the gate. Even so, seven in 10 will die inside, slightly better odds than the nine in 10 who are dying in the community, Madden said.

On Saturday morning, Josh Tugbeh’s luck did not hold. He felt sick and weak, with pain in his joints that made it difficult to walk. But he had spent an hour on a motorcycle to get to the treatment center in Paynesville, on the outskirts of Monrovia, anyway. “I come here and they say they are not accepting patients,” he said outside the ELWA 3 center, as the Doctors Without Borders facility is called. “I want to go back home but I am not able to walk to go home.”

It was the same at the JFK treatment center run by the Liberian government in another Monrovia neighborhood, where Jatu Zombo cradled her five-year-old son, Foday, beneath a tarp that someone had set up to block the sun. A few feet away, her 10-year-old boy, Zennah, lay on the ground. Both children were listless and visibly ill. They felt cold and had been vomiting. Their father had died four days earlier, and Zombo, 36, spent days calling for an ambulance that never came. Finally, her brother paid someone $20 in U.S. currency to bring them to JFK.

But there was no room for the children. “No one has spoken to us,” said Zombo’s brother, Abraham Sesky. “So we are just sitting. We don’t know.”

At the former Redemption Hospital, now a holding center for the sick and the dead where no treatment is offered, an ambulance pulled up to the front gate Saturday afternoon and dropped off two adults and a young girl. The ambulance driver said the child’s name was Cynthia and that she was ten years old.

Weak and wobbly, she walked a few steps before she lay on the concrete. Cynthia and the others could not be brought inside because workers were loading bodies, wrapped in white plastic body bags, into the back of a pickup truck. The area needed to be disinfected first.

As a small crowd gathered on the street of the New Kru Town slum, Cynthia called to the ambulance driver a short distance away, saying she wanted to go home. The driver told her not to move, to wait for the people inside to get to her. A woman began to wail and soon security personnel dispersed the crowd.
 

Be Well

may all be well
The WHO is utterly useless. They should all turn in their keys and go home.

WHO Denies Funds to Move Ebola-Sickened Doctor From Sierra Leone

43 minutes
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/eb...ve-ebola-sickened-doctor-sierra-leone-n202811

The World Health Organization said Saturday it could not meet a request from Sierra Leone to evacuate a doctor who contracted the deadly Ebola disease — and who would have been the first doctor from one of the Ebola-ravaged countries to receive treatment abroad.

Dr. Olivet Buck, a citizen of Sierra Leone, is the fourth doctor from that country to come down with Ebola, which has been blamed for 2,400 deaths in West Africa, according to the WHO. Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea have recorded the vast majority of cases. The other three Sierra Leone doctors died in the country.

Sierra Leone requested funds from the World Health Organization to evacuate the doctor to Germany on Friday, and said a Hamburg hospital was ready to receive her. But a WHO spokesman said Saturday it could not comply with the request and instead would work to give Buck "the best care possible" in Sierra Leone, including access to experimental drugs.

"WHO is unable to organize evacuation of this doctor to (Germany) but is exploring all options on how to ensure best care," WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said. Health care workers are at particular risk and 144 have died so far the three countries, exacerbating a shortage of medical staff.
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
We have no idea of what is really going on, Kris.

I just look at what I can find, try to make an intelligent deduction and roll the dice.

The kind of official numbers are showing explosive growth in Ebola cases and death.

It was less than three weeks ago we had 1,250 "official" cases. We now have nearly 4,000. This is where I get the doubling every two weeks rate. If you factor in the times four rate you will indeed start to get to the 16 rate for Measles you mentioned.

At any rate, even the WHO official numbers show the 2 rate is way low for what the evidence is now showing.

Doug:

Mathematically the 4X factor (or pick any factor from 2X thru 100X) doesn't really have nearly as big an impact on the overall timeline as the R0 factor. I showed that on a previous thread. The 4X kind of happens "once" and sets a baseline for going forward and then the R0 when applied is the real-game changer. The 4X factor currently accelerates the timeframe by just 2 months in the grand scheme of things.
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
We have no idea of what is really going on, Kris.

I just look at what I can find, try to make an intelligent deduction and roll the dice.

The kind of official numbers are showing explosive growth in Ebola cases and death.

It was less than three weeks ago we had 1,250 "official" cases. We now have nearly 4,000. This is where I get the doubling every two weeks rate. If you factor in the times four rate you will indeed start to get to the 16 rate for Measles you mentioned.

At any rate, even the WHO official numbers show the 2 rate is way low for what the evidence is now showing.

Doug:

Take a deep breath man, you are going over the edge! And as a result you are messing up your data and thinking....

At the end of JULY which was now over SIX (6) weeks ago is when we were at 1,324 official tracked cases.

At the end of AUGUST which was TWO (2) weeks ago, we had reached 3,685 official tracked cases.

According to WHO in various news reports (but not in anything official on their web site yet) we are at around 4,700 official tracked cases as I speak on September 13, 2014. That is an increase of about 1,000 over the course of the last 2 weeks.

The math behind that to come up with the current "in progress" R0 is this:

1,000 new cases divided by 13 days in the month so far equals about 77 new cases per day. Which is almost exactly what the per day average was during August. Hmmm....that number per day should be MUCH bigger at this point...but so far it is like things have leveled off.

Until we have hard evidence to the contrary, I simply take the 77 per day, multiply it by the 30 days in September and say "until proven otherwise, at the current rate of increase, we will be at (77 * 30) + 3,685 equals 5,995 by the end of September.

But wait, my spreadsheet using the 2.785 R0 factor says we should be at 10,263 by the end of September???!!! What is the problem????

Well...we know the counts are getting less and less accurate...that is definitely part of it.

And the way exponential formulas work which is what R0 is, the biggest increase always comes later in the month (the doubling factor, which in reality with a 2.785 R0 is actually an almost TRIPLING factor but measured MONTH over MONTH not day over day or week over week. So we COULD still get there if the end of September really increases up to the 2.785 R0 factor.

My observations and comments:

1. I would have expected the official numbers to already be way higher than just 1,000 new cases so far in September since we were already at around 150 new cases per day by the end of August, so either the poor counting is much worse than we thought or this thing is not really spiraling out of control as fast as some of the hyperbolic writers claim or it is actually slowing down or leveling off a bit.

2. Without good DATA (counts of infected and dead) NO ONE knows how bad this thing really is but if it is as bad as some claim, it will not be able to be hidden much longer. The "counts" will become self-evident by the numbers of bodies piling up and the countries affected falling into total chaos and going totally out of business.


ETA: Oh, and I forgot to to finish the R0 calculation above. The new R0 for September, SO FAR, would only be 1.627 if we are truly at "only" 4,700 cases as of today.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
WOW, KRIS!

It took six months, March to August, 2014 to get the first 3,685 "official dead."
It took one month, September, to add another 7,000 plus dead. This is the 100 percent increase every two weeks. 3600 plus 3,600 plus 3600 gets you to the 10, 263.

October adds another 18,000 plus.
November adds over 50,000 additional deaths.
December adds close enough for government work 140,000 dead.

By September 2015 we will have nearly 2 and one half BILLION DEAD, assuming nothing changes regarding Ebola.

Yep, we are going to have nearly one quarter million dead by the end of the year. After that, complete chaos will break out everywhere in the world.

Given that current world population is about 7.3 Billion, then an estimate of "2 1/2 Billion" dead by this time next year fulfills the figure the Bible mentions, when the 4 Horsemen start to ride. First 1/4 of all mankind dies from the combination of the effects of the 4 Horsemen: the Conquerer, War, Economic Collapse/Famine, Pestilence (plagues). Later on, 1/3 of the population LEFT die in subsequent warfare.

The Four horsemen are riding, now.....
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
I just added a new calc to the spreadsheet to show where an R0 of 2.785 SHOULD have us each week of the month of September 2014.

It assumes that we start off the month of September with 147 new infections on September 1 (the daily rate we ended August with) and builds for 30 days from there.

The total infections at the end of each week, assuming R0 of 2.785 during September for the 2014 Ebola Outbreak SHOULD be:

4,819 on September 7th
6,198 on September 14th
7,822 on September 21st
9,691 on September 28th
10,263 on September 30th

We are currently tracking LOWER than that according to WHO counts. Again, the "official" counts are either very far off at this point or the thing is actually slowing down a bit. The bodies piling up will tell the real tale.
 

bbbuddy

DEPLORABLE ME
I just added a new calc to the spreadsheet to show where an R0 of 2.785 SHOULD have us each week of the month of September 2014.

It assumes that we start off the month of September with 147 new infections on September 1 (the daily rate we ended August with) and builds for 30 days from there.

The total infections at the end of each week, assuming R0 of 2.785 during September for the 2014 Ebola Outbreak SHOULD be:

4,819 on September 7th
6,198 on September 14th
7,822 on September 21st
9,691 on September 28th
10,263 on September 30th

We are currently tracking LOWER than that according to WHO counts. Again, the "official" counts are either very far off at this point or the thing is actually slowing down a bit. The bodies piling up will tell the real tale.


Kris, from Be Well's post 969 above :

“We’re just running behind the virus, aren’t we?” Madden said, “And taking the sickest people because we don’t have the capacity.” On Friday, 23 people were admitted, 25 were turned away, nine died and seven were released after recovering, she said.

NOTE THEY ARE TURNING AWAY MORE THAN ARE ADMITTED. Those turned away are not in official counts, so we know that in
Monrovia at least the count is less than half what it should be...

From this I believe the official counts remain garbage, as they have been for a while...I just don't see evidence that it is slowing down. I only see evidence that they no longer can keep up with COUNTING let alone caring for the Ebola victims.,
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
I get what you are saying, Kris. I feel Sir Conan Doyle's famous Sherlock Holmes quote is relevant. "If you eliminate the probable, the final result, no matter how improbable, is the truth." Paraphrasing there, but you catch the drift.

I am now convinced of three things, Kris.

One is the "official" numbers for both infections and deaths are understating what is really happening on the ground in West Africa.

Two is the result of that is the increase rate is higher than it "should be" based on the still official WHO number counts.

Three is the ability to make any reasonable deductions of the RO rate is being degraded on a day by day basis in September. Further, I don't expect that to change in the future.

We know that as BBbuddy says the total number people of seeking medical treatment is over 100 percent higher than the actual number of people getting treatment. 23 people got treatment and 25 people were turned away. How that figure factors into the RO I don't quite get, but it has to have at least some impact.

I conclude from all this that the objective reality about Ebola on the ground is different from the subjective reality handed out by the media and WHO. Again, we are now in a situation where the numbers are becoming increasingly inaccurate.

I am thinking this will sort itself out by Halloween, one way or another.
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
One more important point:

The R0 number is important, but as a per person metric.

The incubation time between a person's infection, and symptoms & infectability
for Ebola is 2 to 21 days. That is a huge mathematical bugaboo for models.

Say you have an R0 of 2 and an inc_t of 4

-vs- an R0 of 4, and an inc_t of 12

The faster "cycle time" will crank out more overall victims than the more infectious version.

The time to double the number of infected is strongly influenced by the incubation time.
(And since it is so variable, there is a large uncertainty to the other numbers as well.)
 

fi103r

Veteran Member
Not playing. Listening to far-off thunder, coming this way.

That is correct.

Our time and options are going to run out at some point. I keep going back to the 80 odd cases referred to CDC already and the uncounted 'ebola' related medevacs that air taxi has been running.
And so far the only 'treatment' is serum or whole blood from recovered cases.

Yes people are dieing(spelling) as we grope for answers:
but if we can discern enough it may keep some of us alive.

q1 is this as contagious as say the notrovirius (spelling) that screws up cruise ships?

q2 what is the contagious/quarantine period after which cases can be released with out danger to the general population.

We should have gotten this info back in MARCH but WHO and all the folks that should have been on top of this were (and are) asleep at the switch(es)

That why we are here at Camp Fooked we just are not getting useful info from primay sources.

That puts us behind the eight ball on trying to dodge this ebola/nobola/newbola issue personally.

r
 

Jake Grey

Veteran Member
I need some help finding a link on one of the Ebola threads.

A few weeks ago (I think), I read about some gathering for a lecture about controlling world population (I believe it was in 2004, 2005, or 2006). IIRC, there was a professor from a Texas university (or maybe the meeting was at a TX university), who said essentially that a weaponized Ebola would be ideal for reducing the world population. The main point was that no one in academia or the media had any problem with this "dream plan" of the speaker.

If anyone can tell me what thread and what post or give me a link to the original article, I would greatly appreciate it. I've been searching TB2K and doing Internet searches without finding it. Thanks!


Just found info on net: Professor Erik Pianka of University of Texas-Austin in 2006. However, I still would like to find the post on TB2K in whichever Ebola thread.
 
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Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
I need some help finding a link on one of the Ebola threads.

A few weeks ago (I think), I read about some gathering for a lecture about controlling world population (I believe it was in 2004, 2005, or 2006). IIRC, there was a professor from a Texas university (or maybe the meeting was at a TX university), who said essentially that a weaponized Ebola would be ideal for reducing the world population. The main point was that no one in academia or the media had any problem with this "dream plan" of the speaker.

If anyone can tell me what thread and what post or give me a link to the original article, I would greatly appreciate it. I've been searching TB2K and doing Internet searches without finding it. Thanks!


Just found info on net: Professor Erik Pianka of University of Texas-Austin in 2006. However, I still would like to find the post on TB2K in whichever Ebola thread.

That was on the very FIRST (and very LONG) ebola thread, before it was closed and moved (I think) into the "Ebola Tracking" sticky thread above.

My post on that thread, # 3, lists ALL the threads started TO THAT DATE on the ebola crisis--
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?453540-Ebola-Tracking&p=5311203#post5311203

But the LONG thread, to which I believe the video you are thinking of was posted, is (I think) this one:

Ebola- out of control in West Africa (this is the LONG recent thread)
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...out-of-control-in-West-Africa&highlight=ebola

I remember seeing the man's FACE in the video, but am not sure what page it was on (I 'think' it was near the end of the thread)
 

ainitfunny

Saved, to glorify God.
This story. IF TRUE, does not portend success for keeping EBOLA out of South America!
But then again ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS LIE.

Brazil denies blocking Africans' entry to guard against Ebola
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/ne...ocking-africans-entry-to-guard-against-ebola/
Published September 10, 2014
EFE

Brazilian immigration authorities denied Wednesday that they are blocking the entry of African immigrants due to fears that they might be carrying the Ebola virus, which has killed nearly 2,300 people in West Africa since March.

The Federal Police, who are responsible for border control, responded to press accounts that their agents are blocking the entry of immigrants from Africa in the Amazonian state of Acre, on the border with Peru and Bolivia.

"Immigration control in the state of Acre is functioning normally and there is no order to restrict the access of Africans to the national territory," the Federal Police said in a statement.

The force said that it will adopt the necessary disciplinary measures if it is verified that any of its agents have engaged in "irregularities" while handling African immigrants.

"It also must be emphasized that the Health Ministry ruled out the risk of contamination by the Ebola virus in Brazil," the statement added.

Acre in recent years has become the main entry point into Brazil for thousands of Haitian and African immigrants seeking opportunity in Latin America's biggest economy.

Some cities in Acre, such as Brazilandia, at the beginning of this year experienced a serious crisis when their shelters were housing almost 2,500 immigrants.

In the past few days, some African immigrants have complained that they have been subjected to barriers and discrimination when they've tried to cross the border.

O Globo newspaper reported that some of the Federal Police officers working at the Acre customs station had even threatened to go on strike out of fears that they might have to come in contact with carriers of the highly-contagious Ebola virus.

Agents consulted by the daily complain that Brazilian health authorities so far have not taken any preventive measures with regard to immigrants entering the country through Amazonia and coming from countries in the midst of Ebola outbreaks.

According to figures compiled by the Federal Police, while 1,054 African immigrants were living in Brazil in 2000, by 2012 that figure had risen to 31,866.

Nearly half of them are from Portuguese-speaking countries such as Angola and Cape Verde. EFE
 

mscoffee

Veteran Member
I need some help finding a link on one of the Ebola threads.

A few weeks ago (I think), I read about some gathering for a lecture about controlling world population (I believe it was in 2004, 2005, or 2006). IIRC, there was a professor from a Texas university (or maybe the meeting was at a TX university), who said essentially that a weaponized Ebola would be ideal for reducing the world population. The main point was that no one in academia or the media had any problem with this "dream plan" of the speaker.

If anyone can tell me what thread and what post or give me a link to the original article, I would greatly appreciate it. I've been searching TB2K and doing Internet searches without finding it. Thanks!


Just found info on net: Professor Erik Pianka of University of Texas-Austin in 2006. However, I still would like to find the post on TB2K in whichever Ebola thread.

Is this it?
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...kill-billions-and-save-world&highlight=Pianka
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
One more important point:

The R0 number is important, but as a per person metric.

The incubation time between a person's infection, and symptoms & infectability
for Ebola is 2 to 21 days. That is a huge mathematical bugaboo for models.

Say you have an R0 of 2 and an inc_t of 4

-vs- an R0 of 4, and an inc_t of 12

The faster "cycle time" will crank out more overall victims than the more infectious version.

The time to double the number of infected is strongly influenced by the incubation time.
(And since it is so variable, there is a large uncertainty to the other numbers as well.)

As I explained earlier, trying to factor that level of detail in at the "micro" level is only useful if you are truly trying to predict this thing down to the hour or day. This outbreak has never had accurate enough and frequent enough numbers or tracking of contacts to figure out the average incubation time much less the individual incubation time.

At the "MACRO" level we have 13 prior outbreaks with what appear to be reasonably accurate numbers and we have 6 and a half months of history with this outbreak with somewhat questionable numbers for at least the last month.

But the bottom line is that the R0 for month-over-month calculations is about as good as it is going to get and at the end of the day (end of the outbreak) is more than adequate because ultimately there are only four numbers that matter during the outbreak (and we only have an inkling of an idea about the first 2 of them at any instant in time):

1. How many total cases have we had?

2. How many have died?

3. How many have recovered? (appears to not be tracked, at least it is never mentioned but can be computed at the end of the outbreak)

4. How many are currently infected/under care? (have not died and have not yet recovered - again, this number goes away at the end of the outbreak leaving us with only the first two numbers - cases and deaths)
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
OBAMA coming to ATLANTA to TALK to CDC about EBOLA

Apparently the phone lines between the CDC in Atlanta and Prez Obola in DC have been cut.

O is coming here to Atlanta on TUESDAY, per a report just now on WSB radio, to visit the CDC "to be briefed about ebola."

He has to travel all the way down here for that.

They are also going to "bring the President up to date" about the respiratory virus "out west" (as they put it) and the President will "thank" those involved with working the crisis.

An article I just found about it:

Obama to visit Atlanta health center to talk Ebola

By JOSH LEDERMAN

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON —

President Barack Obama will travel next week to Atlanta to address the Ebola crisis during a visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the White House said Friday.

During his visit on Tuesday, Obama will be briefed about the outbreak and discuss the U.S. response with officials, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said. Obama will also thank the doctors, scientists and health care workers responding to the crisis.

Four Americans have been or are being treated for Ebola in the U.S. after evacuation from Africa. The Ebola outbreak is the worst in history and has been blamed for more than 2,200 deaths in West Africa. So far, the death rate is about 50 percent, with doctors and nurses at a high risk of contracting the virus.

The U.S. has spent more than $100 million responding to the outbreak and has offered to operate treatment centers for patients.

While at the CDC, Obama also will be briefed about cases of respiratory illness being reported in the Midwest, the White House said. Public health officials are monitoring a high number of reports of illness associated with human enterovirus 68 in Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and elsewhere.

After leaving Atlanta, Obama will travel to Florida to visit the headquarters of U.S. Central Command in Tampa, where he'll meet with military officials about the U.S. counterterrorism campaign against the Islamic State group. Central Command overseas U.S. military efforts in the Middle East.

Copyright The Associated Press


http://www.wsbradio.com/ap/ap/top-news/obama-to-visit-atlanta-health-center-to-talk-ebola/nhLm7/
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
WHO's refusal to evacuate an African medical doctor who had a place of treatment arranged but probably needed a special medical plane is very concerning, because rightly or wrongly it sends the message that "European/Western doctors are important and need saving, African's are not." There may be some really good reasons WHO said no (such as knowing they won't have the money to fly every African doctor who becomes ill out of the country) but that isn't how it is going to play on the ground. They might have been better to at least fly this lady out and see if they could save her using the methods that worked on the Americans and if that worked, at least they know they have a real treatment plan for a few people. And yes, as I said before, in a situation like this some lives ARE more important than others; not in a moral sense but in a practical sense. Save you doctors and nurses and you save trained people who have the potential to train other people; just let them all die and you not only have no one trained at all to deal with the crises but the few who remain are likely to leave and there will be no one left even after the epidemic is over.

Sooner or later epidemics do burn themselves out, although in the worst we know of in historical times, the death rate is now thought to be between 85 and 90 percent; that was the ultimately outcome of the last wave of Europeans entering North America in the 1500's that exposed the Native Americans to diseases for which they had no immunity at all. Think about that, 90 percent of everyone you know just gone....
 

Jake Grey

Veteran Member
Thanks Countrymouse and mscoffee!!

Given that in 2006 this professor advocated a cross between Ebola-Zaire and Ebola-Reston to reduce the world's population by 90%, and we see how different the "New Ebola" is, it makes one wonder. I could certainly understand those who smell conspiracies around every corner smelling something here. Wow, he even mentioned "good terrorists" spreading it. How evil...but he got a standing ovation.
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
WHO's refusal to evacuate an African medical doctor who had a place of treatment arranged but probably needed a special medical plane is very concerning, because rightly or wrongly it sends the message that "European/Western doctors are important and need saving, African's are not." There may be some really good reasons WHO said no (such as knowing they won't have the money to fly every African doctor who becomes ill out of the country) but that isn't how it is going to play on the ground. They might have been better to at least fly this lady out and see if they could save her using the methods that worked on the Americans and if that worked, at least they know they have a real treatment plan for a few people. And yes, as I said before, in a situation like this some lives ARE more important than others; not in a moral sense but in a practical sense. Save you doctors and nurses and you save trained people who have the potential to train other people; just let them all die and you not only have no one trained at all to deal with the crises but the few who remain are likely to leave and there will be no one left even after the epidemic is over.

Sooner or later epidemics do burn themselves out, although in the worst we know of in historical times, the death rate is now thought to be between 85 and 90 percent; that was the ultimately outcome of the last wave of Europeans entering North America in the 1500's that exposed the Native Americans to diseases for which they had no immunity at all. Think about that, 90 percent of everyone you know just gone....



Ebola Outbreak: Dr. Olivet Buck Dies in Sierra Leone
After WHO Denies Funds for Evacuation



First published September 14th 2014, 7:59 am
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/eb...ivet-buck-dies-sierra-leone-after-who-n202991

FREETOWN, Sierra Leone - Sierra Leone has lost a fourth doctor to Ebola
after a failed effort to transfer her abroad for medical treatment, a
government official said Sunday, a huge setback to the impoverished
country that is battling the virulent disease amid a shortage of health
care workers. Dr. Olivet Buck died late Saturday, hours after the World
Health Organization said it could not help medically evacuate her to
Germany, Chief Medical Officer Dr. Brima Kargbo confirmed to The
Associated Press. Sierra Leone had requested funds from WHO to
transport Buck to Europe, saying the country could not afford to lose
another doctor.


WHO had said that it could not meet the request but instead would work
to give Buck "the best care possible" in Sierra Leone, including possible
access to experimental drugs. Ebola is spread through direct contact with
the bodily fluids of sick patients, making doctors and nurses especially
vulnerable to contracting the virus that has no vaccine or approved
treatment. More than 300 health workers have become infected with
Ebola in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Nearly half of them have
died, according to WHO.

 

SheWoff

Southern by choice
Ebola Deaths Jump by Almost 200 People in a Single Day as Pandemic Explodes

By Ethan A. Huff, Natural News | September 14, 2014

A report released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday confirmed that at least 2,296 [which has now risen to over 2,400] people had died from Ebola, a jump of nearly 200 deaths in just one day. And this figure didn’t even account for the number of deaths in Liberia, the hardest-hit nation in the current Ebola outbreak, for which current data has yet to be released.

As of September 6, WHO was aware of 4,293 confirmed cases of Ebola in West Africa, minus any new ones in Liberia. Within the next two to three weeks, however, WHO expects that number to jump dramatically, along with total deaths, as Liberian health officials release new figures taking into account exponential disease spread.

Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf told the media on the same day as the WHO announcement that her country is in major trouble, lacking adequate supplies and international support. She says the dwindling number of remaining health workers is struggling to keep up with the rate of disease spread, and that it could be weeks before things relent.

“It remains a very grave situation,” she somberly explained to an audience at Harvard University during a recent conference through Skype. “It is taking a long time to respond effectively…. We expect it to accelerate for at least another two or three weeks before we can look forward to a decline.”

Liberia Could Collapse From Ebola Epidemic, Says Official
But even this is just a hopeful expectation, as Ebola is showing no signs of decline, at least not in the immediate future. Liberia’s Minister of National Defense warned the United Nations Security Council that the viral disease is threatening the underpinnings of the country, and that its very existence is now on the line.

“Liberia is facing a serious threat to its national existence,” warned Brownie Samukai. “The deadly Ebola virus has caused a disruption of the normal functioning of our State.”

Both the UN and WHO are having problems not only containing Ebola but also tracking its spread and severity. The situation is constantly evolving, with rates of infection and death now entering exponential territory. Despite the fact that the Ebola outbreak technically began last December, roughly 60 percent of all deaths, at least in Liberia, have occurred within the past three weeks.

Ebola ‘Spreading Like Wildfire’; Liberia’s ‘Gravest Threat Since War’
If it remains on its current accelerating trajectory, Ebola could end up infecting tens of thousands of people by the end of the month, and potentially hundreds of thousands by the end of the year. This would fulfill the statements made by Defense Minister Samukai that the current Ebola outbreak is Liberia’s “gravest threat since war.”

“[Ebola] is now spreading like wildfire, devouring everything in its path,” she recently stated. “The already weak health infrastructure of the country has been overwhelmed.”

Samukai’s war reference pertains to two different civil wars that took place in Liberia between 1989 and 2003, which cumulatively resulted in more than 250,000 deaths. These wars completely destabilized the country, which was still in recovery when the current Ebola outbreak began last December.

“The Ebola crisis has become complex, with political, security, economic and social implications that will continue to affect the country well beyond the current medical emergency,” stated Karin Landgren, the UN special envoy to Liberia.

Liberia, WHO and even Doctors Without Borders, the most prominent aid group on the ground in West Africa, all admit that there are no longer enough resources or personnel to handle the outbreak. This puts over 4 million people in the region, and potentially the rest of the world, at risk.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/955...-ebola/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 

SheWoff

Southern by choice
'Closing Schools Does Not Make Sense' - Health Minister

The minister opined that there is no reason why schools should not resume on September 22 as earlier rescheduled, NAN reports.

It "doesn’t simply make any sense" to keep primary and secondary schools in the country closed, says Nigeria's Minister of Education, Onyebuchi Chukwu.
Chukwu's comment is coming at a time when many, including the House of Representatives, are raising concerns over the dreaded Ebola Virus Disease (EVD).
The minister opined that there is no reason why schools should not resume on September 22 as earlier rescheduled, NAN reports.
“So, I want to make it clear that from the technical point of view, there is absolutely no reason why any school, except if they have other problems that are not medical, cannot reopen,’’ Chukwu said.

“You notice that Nigeria has not closed any market, church, mosque and children follow their parents to these places.
“So it doesn’t simply make any sense yet to continue shutting down the schools."
He added that re-opening schools on schedule would present an opportunity to teach the children about the Ebola virus disease and also activate what the teachers have been trained on.
“It will even give us opportunity to teach the children what EVD is all about.
“It is going to offer us opportunity to reinforce what we are already teaching their teachers because the teachers are going through programmes on how they should handle children who are sick."

He revealed that there is no existing Ebola case at the moment, even though the Ministry remains prepared to tackle any case.
“We know now that there is no place in Nigeria now that we are treating anyone for EVD, but we have not started celebrating yet for the simple reason that we have not yet won the war.

“We do not want surprises.
“No one for now has active EVD in Nigeria, but that is not to say that will be surprised if we have one tomorrow,’’ Chukwu said.
It will be recalled that the House of Representatives last Tuesday tasked its Committee on Education to review the resumption date for private and public primary/secondary schools in the country.

http://www.dailynews-ng.com/link/13...g-schools-does-not-make-sense-health-minister
 

SheWoff

Southern by choice
Homeland Security botched pandemic preparedness : U.S. report

Hadn't seen this posted yet...very important info...par for the course...
She
--------------------------------------------

Homeland Security botched pandemic preparedness : U.S. report

The Department of Homeland Security failed to assess the supplies it needed to deal with a potential pandemic and now has expired stockpiles including medications, 200,000 respirators and 4,184 bottles of hand sanitizers, an inspector general report showed.

The department bought 16 million surgical masks and 350,000 white coverall suits without establishing the need for them, according to its inspector general’s report, which included photographs of stacks of unopened boxes piled high in a storeroom.

Eighty-one percent of DHS’ supply of 296,000 doses of antiviral medication, called medical countermeasures, will expire next year, according to the report completed in late August and released on Monday.

DHS also did not keep track of its supplies or where they were kept.

“As a result, the department has no assurance it has sufficient personal protective equipment and antiviral medical countermeasures for a pandemic response,” it concluded.

The report comes as the United States prepares to help African countries devastated by the rapid spread of the Ebola virus and work to keep it from spreading to its shores.

The inspector general said DHS spent $47 million Congress appropriated in 2006 for a potential pandemic on the preparedness equipment, medication, research and exercises.

The Transportation Security Administration’s stock of pandemic preparedness equipment includes 200,000 respirators that are past the five-year manufacturer’s guaranteed usability, the report said.

The inspector general said 84 percent of the department’s 4,982 bottles of hand sanitizers were expired, some by up to four years.

The inspector general made 11 recommendations.

“While DHS concurs with the OIG’s recommendations, we had already previously identified many of the issues prior to the review, and have taken comprehensive actions to address them,” including finalizing the recall of the expired medicines, DHS spokesman S.Y. Lee said in a statement.

Homeland Security, with more than 240,000 employees, is charged with protecting the United States from a range of threats from weather disasters to terrorism, including threats to water supplies, power plants and other infrastructure.

“The mounting risk of a worldwide influenza pandemic poses numerous potentially devastating consequences for critical infrastructure in the United States,” the report said.

http://plutodaily.com/homeland-security-botched-pandemic-preparedness-u-s-report/
 

Uhhmmm...

Veteran Member
DOJ has been totally politicized. The only thing they keep track of are conservatives, libertarians, and Tea Party types.

What? I thought the DOJ and DHS were different cabinet posts. They both have the letter 'D' in their tla's, after all. I believe the OIG and DOJ produced the report, but what would that have to do with the political leanings of the DOJ?

If you could clarify your post MM, I would appreciate it.
 
Last edited:

NWPhotog

Veteran Member
Forgive me,please. I love stats.

I agree with the thunder comment. I was just thinking about the people who had to die to create those stats. The horror we can only watch and wait.

I will say again that if ebola is around Cameroon, it is in Cameroon. 20 years ago, they downplayed HIV stats even though the Drs. knew how bad it was. They didn't want the stigma of HIV.
 

Shacknasty Shagrat

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Kris, from Be Well's post 969 above :

“We’re just running behind the virus, aren’t we?” Madden said, “And taking the sickest people because we don’t have the capacity.” On Friday, 23 people were admitted, 25 were turned away, nine died and seven were released after recovering, she said.

NOTE THEY ARE TURNING AWAY MORE THAN ARE ADMITTED. Those turned away are not in official counts, so we know that in
Monrovia at least the count is less than half what it should be...

From this I believe the official counts remain garbage, as they have been for a while...I just don't see evidence that it is slowing down. I only see evidence that they no longer can keep up with COUNTING let alone caring for the Ebola victims.,

Interesting approach, bbbuddy
The people giving out the data about patients being turned away are Doctors and hospital administrators. These are pretty responsible people and right on scene. They could have an evil self interest in inflating the turn away figures with a motive of getting more money coming in, leading to their higher salaries, new boats..etc but that seems to be a little paranoid thinking. They are probably much more concerned about staying alive and doing their job for several more months/weeks.
So using the wonders of math and computers, today, we have reports of 30 people being turned away, so tomorrow 37 et seq.??
When the hospital is turning 50 patients away, the extent of the problem will be very clear to many.
SS
















.
 

bbbuddy

DEPLORABLE ME
Interesting approach, bbbuddy
The people giving out the data about patients being turned away are Doctors and hospital administrators. These are pretty responsible people and right on scene. They could have an evil self interest in inflating the turn away figures with a motive of getting more money coming in, leading to their higher salaries, new boats..etc but that seems to be a little paranoid thinking. They are probably much more concerned about staying alive and doing their job for several more months/weeks.
So using the wonders of math and computers, today, we have reports of 30 people being turned away, so tomorrow 37 et seq.??
When the hospital is turning 50 patients away, the extent of the problem will be very clear to many.
SS

.

SS,
WHO's "official numbers" have been garbage for quite a while according to both Doctors Without Borders and Samaritans Purse. Testimony in front of Congress by one doctor said their count could be off by 2 to 4 times lower than the real numbers.

I don't think you have to wait for higher numbers being turned away to KNOW there is a problem that may be too late to get a grip on...more being turned away than treated says it ALL.
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
SS,
WHO's "official numbers" have been garbage for quite a while according to both Doctors Without Borders and Samaritans Purse. Testimony in front of Congress by one doctor said their count could be off by 2 to 4 times lower than the real numbers.

I don't think you have to wait for higher numbers being turned away to KNOW there is a problem that may be too late to get a grip on...more being turned away than treated says it ALL.

So word gets out that they are turning people away,
they then just go to the "Tribal Medicine Man", and help spread the disease even further.
(Tribal/Traditional Herbalists are very good at the "classical" ailments that they have experience with,
Ebola is throwing them a situation they can't handle.)
 

bbbuddy

DEPLORABLE ME
So word gets out that they are turning people away,
they then just go to the "Tribal Medicine Man", and help spread the disease even further.
(Tribal/Traditional Herbalists are very good at the "classical" ailments that they have experience with,
Ebola is throwing them a situation they can't handle.)

Exactly. It was reported that a large amount of the early spread came from people going to their traditional "healers"....laying on of hand and all that...
 
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