SheWoff
Southern by choice
Right...same as they have been doing the past weeks with the over 1200 airline passengers! Makes no sense to me either but there it is...
HEALTH MAIN EBOLA DISCUSSION THREAD -09/01/14 - 09/15/14
- Status
Right...same as they have been doing the past weeks with the over 1200 airline passengers! Makes no sense to me either but there it is...
Fred's Horseradish
Membership Revoked
Oreally, you have summed it up very well. Now looking to get together those esp NT texts that speak of this last day event.
I am hoping to get one last 40HC container from China. Ex: tennis shoes $1 pair. We ALL need shoes. And log cabin kits for this 206 acre ranch.
SheWoff
Southern by choice
Poor will die of hunger, not just Ebola, say Sierra Leoneans
Via Reuters, a report by Plan International: Poor will die of hunger, not just Ebola, say Sierra Leoneans. Excerpt:
Supplies of food are running so low in Sierra Leone that residents fear many could die of hunger if the Ebola virus is not contained soon, reports humanitarian organisation Plan International.
Freetown residents say food prices are soaring out of control due to the lack of cross-border trade.
With borders to Liberia and Guinea closed, traders are unable to bring food from one to country to another, causing prices to spiral beyond the reach of many poor people.
“There is food shortage in the market and the demand is high, and this has urged traders to increase their prices,” said Freetown resident Alpha Bah.
“The situation in the country is getting more difficult every day, and if this virus is not tackled as quickly as possible, many Sierra Leoneans are going to die of hunger, particularly the poor citizens.”
Last week the UN warned of the effect of the Ebola crisis on food security in West Africa, citing soaring prices across the region.
It issued a special alert for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, the three countries most affected by the outbreak, which has killed at least 2,296 people since the virus was detected in the remote forests of Guinea in March.
“Things are really difficult right now in the country,” said Mariatu Kamara, who lives in the capital.
“The cost of living is gradually increasing. We rely on Guinea especially to buy food items, since it is cheaper there. Presently, we are living on stored food items, meaning food items that were bought months before the outbreak.”
According to Kamara, a bag of rice that normally costs SLL100.000 (Sierra Leonean Leone), or 25 American dollars, has now gone up to SLL180.000, or $35, with dollar exchange rates also rising.
Kadiatu Sesay, a female trader operating in Freetown, says she will soon run out of food to sell.
“I used to travel to Guinea to buy food items, but since the Ebola outbreak and the borders are closed, I am only selling the remaining food item in my store,” she explained.
“Things are getting worse every day, especially food items. All food items have increased from their normal prices due to scarcity. Also, most farmers have stopped farming due to the outbreak. Food items are now very expensive."
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/...unger-not-just-ebola-say-sierra-leoneans.html
Via Reuters, a report by Plan International: Poor will die of hunger, not just Ebola, say Sierra Leoneans. Excerpt:
Supplies of food are running so low in Sierra Leone that residents fear many could die of hunger if the Ebola virus is not contained soon, reports humanitarian organisation Plan International.
Freetown residents say food prices are soaring out of control due to the lack of cross-border trade.
With borders to Liberia and Guinea closed, traders are unable to bring food from one to country to another, causing prices to spiral beyond the reach of many poor people.
“There is food shortage in the market and the demand is high, and this has urged traders to increase their prices,” said Freetown resident Alpha Bah.
“The situation in the country is getting more difficult every day, and if this virus is not tackled as quickly as possible, many Sierra Leoneans are going to die of hunger, particularly the poor citizens.”
Last week the UN warned of the effect of the Ebola crisis on food security in West Africa, citing soaring prices across the region.
It issued a special alert for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, the three countries most affected by the outbreak, which has killed at least 2,296 people since the virus was detected in the remote forests of Guinea in March.
“Things are really difficult right now in the country,” said Mariatu Kamara, who lives in the capital.
“The cost of living is gradually increasing. We rely on Guinea especially to buy food items, since it is cheaper there. Presently, we are living on stored food items, meaning food items that were bought months before the outbreak.”
According to Kamara, a bag of rice that normally costs SLL100.000 (Sierra Leonean Leone), or 25 American dollars, has now gone up to SLL180.000, or $35, with dollar exchange rates also rising.
Kadiatu Sesay, a female trader operating in Freetown, says she will soon run out of food to sell.
“I used to travel to Guinea to buy food items, but since the Ebola outbreak and the borders are closed, I am only selling the remaining food item in my store,” she explained.
“Things are getting worse every day, especially food items. All food items have increased from their normal prices due to scarcity. Also, most farmers have stopped farming due to the outbreak. Food items are now very expensive."
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/...unger-not-just-ebola-say-sierra-leoneans.html
SheWoff
Southern by choice
I am noticing one thing this morning and it seems to be a growing trend...the places that I was getting my new from besides the twitter feed...there is less and less updating going on. MSF even on their country sites in Africa haven't been updated in two weeks. I realize they are busy fighting this but even they had been pouring out updates as this thing progressed. Local news agencies are now not posting every time they have a suspected case break out somewhere besides the norm like they were. No news coming out of Port Harcourt and such places that I can find. Seems like all the sudden they have fallen off the face of the earth here? It's a disturbing trend to say the least....And as we (the US) become more involved in this fight, I suspect they will clamp down even harder on ANY news coming out of the hot zone. I pray it wont be so, but if past actions are any indicator...
I hope I am wrong here in my assumptions...you know what they say about ass/u/me ....but my gut tells me I'm not wrong. There are a lot of op/ed pieces coming out of the area but they tend to focus more on local politics right now than the disease or the number of infected and dying. Hope someone here will have way more luck than I am having!
She (moving more supplies into camp fooked)
I hope I am wrong here in my assumptions...you know what they say about ass/u/me ....but my gut tells me I'm not wrong. There are a lot of op/ed pieces coming out of the area but they tend to focus more on local politics right now than the disease or the number of infected and dying. Hope someone here will have way more luck than I am having!
She (moving more supplies into camp fooked)
How do they come up with the target figure of "20,000" infected before the outbreak is brought under control?
And what exactly is the plan to bring it under control at that level?
I guess the weasel words they can point to are "MORE than 20,000". Yes, 200,000 or 2 million or 2 billion are all "more than 20,000" so they aren't exactly lying.
bw
Fringe Ranger
Strictly panic management, at this point.
rummer
Veteran Member
200,000 from Ebola countries have visas to enter U.S.
BY PAUL BEDARD | SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 | 9:18 AM
There are about 200,000 Africans from countries hosting the deadly Ebola virus who hold temporary visas to visit the United States, greatly raising the stakes it could spread to America, according to a group following the immigration issue.
“Based on State Department nonimmigrant visa issuance statistics, I estimate that there are about 5,000 people in Guinea, 5,000 people in Sierra Leone, and 3,500 people in Liberia who possess visas to come to the United States today,” said Jessica M. Vaughan, director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies.
Add to that “more than 195,000 Nigerians” with visas to visit, or who could already be here, she said of the country that has seen temporary U.S. visas skyrocket.
The government has promised that the U.S. is safe, but that’s not good enough for Vaughan. “At this time, with an extremely serious public health threat and more than 200,000 people who potentially could enter and spread it, either knowingly or unknowingly, the State Department and Department of Homeland Security should disclose to the public what they are doing to prevent travelers infected with Ebola from entering the country,” she told Secrets.
The Ebola crisis is also drawing attention to citizens from Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia who overstay their visas. Vaughan said that the overstay rate of those from Ebola-impacted nations should be a concern.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at pbedard@washingtonexaminer.com.
BY PAUL BEDARD | SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 | 9:18 AM
There are about 200,000 Africans from countries hosting the deadly Ebola virus who hold temporary visas to visit the United States, greatly raising the stakes it could spread to America, according to a group following the immigration issue.
“Based on State Department nonimmigrant visa issuance statistics, I estimate that there are about 5,000 people in Guinea, 5,000 people in Sierra Leone, and 3,500 people in Liberia who possess visas to come to the United States today,” said Jessica M. Vaughan, director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies.
Add to that “more than 195,000 Nigerians” with visas to visit, or who could already be here, she said of the country that has seen temporary U.S. visas skyrocket.
The government has promised that the U.S. is safe, but that’s not good enough for Vaughan. “At this time, with an extremely serious public health threat and more than 200,000 people who potentially could enter and spread it, either knowingly or unknowingly, the State Department and Department of Homeland Security should disclose to the public what they are doing to prevent travelers infected with Ebola from entering the country,” she told Secrets.
The Ebola crisis is also drawing attention to citizens from Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia who overstay their visas. Vaughan said that the overstay rate of those from Ebola-impacted nations should be a concern.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at pbedard@washingtonexaminer.com.
Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://www.naturalnews.com/046882_ebola_computer_models_disease_transmission.html#
Computer model suggests 5,000 Ebola deaths by September 24; hundreds of thousands soon after
Monday, September 15, 2014 by: Jonathan Benson, staff writer
Tags: Ebola, computer models, disease transmission
(NaturalNews) Based on its current rate of spread, the West African Ebola outbreak is expected to surge in the coming weeks, according to a new study published in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. Researchers from Northeastern University in Boston have projected that as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola will be confirmed by September 24, with about 5,000 of these resulting in death.
Using the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model as a benchmark, Marcelo F. C. Gomes and his colleagues estimated the likelihood of disease spread with 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. This included looking at daily airline passenger traffic worldwide as well as disease spread within hospitals, at funerals and within entire communities.
With a reproductive number (Re) of 1 representing the tipping point at which disease spreads -- anything higher than 1 means that the outbreak will continue to spread, while anything less means that it is being contained -- the team estimates the current Ebola outbreak to be between 1.5 and 2.0. In the short term, this means continued and increasing spread throughout West Africa.
In the long term, international spread is also a possibility, with the strong likelihood of exponential growth if the situation is not contained sooner rather than later. As far as Liberia is concerned, where a bulk of the current outbreak is occurring, the figures don't look very promising -- the number of dead over the past several months could more than double in just a few weeks.
"The numbers are really scary," stated Alessandro Vespignani, a physicist at Northeastern and author of the study. "We all hope to see this NOT happening."
Hundreds of thousands could catch Ebola by December 1
Even with bolstered international aid, Vespignani and his team say this is not enough to prevent an exponential spike in Ebola infections. If things continue as they currently are, more than 100,000 people -- just in Liberia -- will have Ebola by December 1. And beyond that date, the number will continue to skyrocket at an exponential rate.
"If the epidemic in Liberia were to continue in this way until the 1st of December, the cumulative number of cases would exceed 100,000," said Christian Althaus, a mathematical epidemiologist from the University of Bern who is also building his own Ebola models, as quoted by Science magazine.
Up to 75 percent of actual Ebola cases go unreported, say expert
Because of a lack of data and difficulties knowing exactly how many people are currently infected with Ebola, scientists admit that their data are mostly speculative. But it is conservatively speculative, if anything, as up to three-quarters of actual Ebola cases likely go unreported. This means that many more people than are currently being reported already have Ebola, and the actual number on September 24 will be far higher.
Then there is the question of how quarantines are affecting the spread of Ebola. With some fearing the repercussions of coming forward, many infected individuals are likely staying out of the limelight, potentially spreading the disease to their friends, families and communities with authorities none the wiser.
"Quarantines and curfews tend to instill fear and distrust towards the whole of the outbreak response including health structures," stated a representative from Doctors Without Borders, one of the primary aid groups on the ground in West Africa, to Science.
To review the new study in its entirety, including plotted graphs of the expected rise in infections, visit:
Currents.PLOS.org.
Learn more about natural defenses against viral outbreaks at BioDefense.com.
Sources for this article include:
http://currents.plos.org
http://news.sciencemag.org
http://www.fhcrc.org
http://science.naturalnews.com
http://www.naturalnews.com/046882_ebola_computer_models_disease_transmission.html#
Computer model suggests 5,000 Ebola deaths by September 24; hundreds of thousands soon after
Monday, September 15, 2014 by: Jonathan Benson, staff writer
Tags: Ebola, computer models, disease transmission
(NaturalNews) Based on its current rate of spread, the West African Ebola outbreak is expected to surge in the coming weeks, according to a new study published in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. Researchers from Northeastern University in Boston have projected that as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola will be confirmed by September 24, with about 5,000 of these resulting in death.
Using the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model as a benchmark, Marcelo F. C. Gomes and his colleagues estimated the likelihood of disease spread with 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. This included looking at daily airline passenger traffic worldwide as well as disease spread within hospitals, at funerals and within entire communities.
With a reproductive number (Re) of 1 representing the tipping point at which disease spreads -- anything higher than 1 means that the outbreak will continue to spread, while anything less means that it is being contained -- the team estimates the current Ebola outbreak to be between 1.5 and 2.0. In the short term, this means continued and increasing spread throughout West Africa.
In the long term, international spread is also a possibility, with the strong likelihood of exponential growth if the situation is not contained sooner rather than later. As far as Liberia is concerned, where a bulk of the current outbreak is occurring, the figures don't look very promising -- the number of dead over the past several months could more than double in just a few weeks.
"The numbers are really scary," stated Alessandro Vespignani, a physicist at Northeastern and author of the study. "We all hope to see this NOT happening."
Hundreds of thousands could catch Ebola by December 1
Even with bolstered international aid, Vespignani and his team say this is not enough to prevent an exponential spike in Ebola infections. If things continue as they currently are, more than 100,000 people -- just in Liberia -- will have Ebola by December 1. And beyond that date, the number will continue to skyrocket at an exponential rate.
"If the epidemic in Liberia were to continue in this way until the 1st of December, the cumulative number of cases would exceed 100,000," said Christian Althaus, a mathematical epidemiologist from the University of Bern who is also building his own Ebola models, as quoted by Science magazine.
Up to 75 percent of actual Ebola cases go unreported, say expert
Because of a lack of data and difficulties knowing exactly how many people are currently infected with Ebola, scientists admit that their data are mostly speculative. But it is conservatively speculative, if anything, as up to three-quarters of actual Ebola cases likely go unreported. This means that many more people than are currently being reported already have Ebola, and the actual number on September 24 will be far higher.
Then there is the question of how quarantines are affecting the spread of Ebola. With some fearing the repercussions of coming forward, many infected individuals are likely staying out of the limelight, potentially spreading the disease to their friends, families and communities with authorities none the wiser.
"Quarantines and curfews tend to instill fear and distrust towards the whole of the outbreak response including health structures," stated a representative from Doctors Without Borders, one of the primary aid groups on the ground in West Africa, to Science.
To review the new study in its entirety, including plotted graphs of the expected rise in infections, visit:
Currents.PLOS.org.
Learn more about natural defenses against viral outbreaks at BioDefense.com.
Sources for this article include:
http://currents.plos.org
http://news.sciencemag.org
http://www.fhcrc.org
http://science.naturalnews.com
See my bolding, highlighting and underlining above....
These people just kill me...but it does continue to prove this:
bw
Fringe Ranger
Heck, I hope to be unimaginably wealthy by Christmas. No useful strategy flows from that hope, however.
Possible Impact
TB Fanatic
UN Security Council to Meet on Ebola
UNITED NATIONS — Sep 15, 2014, 3:27 PM ET
By EDITH M. LEDERER Associated Press
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/diplomat-security-council-meet-ebola-25516380
The United States called an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security
Council Thursday on the Ebola crisis in West Africa, saying the situation
on the ground is "dire" and getting worse every day.
U.S. U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power said the United States has asked
the 193 U.N. member states to come to the meeting with "concrete
commitments" to tackle the outbreak, especially in hardest-hit Liberia,
Sierra Leone and Guinea.
"The trendlines in this crisis are grave, and without immediate
international action we are facing the potential for a public health crisis
that could claim lives on a scale far greater than current estimates, and
set the countries of West Africa back a generation," Power told reporters
on Monday. "This is a perilous crisis but one we can contain if the
international community comes together to meet it head on."
The worst Ebola outbreak in history has hit Liberia, Sierra Leone and
Guinea hardest and also reached Nigeria and Senegal. It has been
blamed for more than 2,200 deaths. Ebola is spread through direct
contact with the bodily fluids of sick patients, making doctors and nurses
especially vulnerable to contracting the virus that has no vaccine or
approved treatment.
"We can contain this," Power said. "We know how to do it and we must
avoid panic and fear, but our collective response to date has not been
sufficient. We must move forward aggressively in a coordinated fashion."
Power said the meeting Thursday afternoon would mark a rare occasion
when the Security Council, which is responsible for threats to
international peace and security, addresses a public health crisis.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected to brief the council along
with World Health Organization chief Dr. Margaret Chan and Dr. David
Nabarro, the recently named U.N. coordinator to tackle the disease, as
well as representatives from the affected countries.
A diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because the official
announcement has not yet been made, said it would be only the
second time the council takes on a public health issue.
The late former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Richard
Holbrooke, organized a council meeting in January 2000 on the AIDS
pandemic, which was addressed by then vice-president Al Gore.
Intestinal Fortitude
Have Faith
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11325383
Guinea says it is clear to host games amid Ebola
6:25 AM Tuesday Sep 16, 2014
CONAKRY, Guinea (AP) The Guinea football federation says it has been cleared to host African Cup qualifying games again after the deadly Ebola outbreak led to a temporary ban.
Federation spokesman Blaise Mamadouba Camara said Monday the Confederation of African Football has lifted the embargo on games in the country, where nearly 500 people have died in the West African Ebola crisis.
According to Camara, Guinea can now host Ghana at the 28 September Stadium in Conakry in its next Group E qualifier next month. Guinea played its first home game in the final round of 2015 African Cup of Nations qualifiers in neutral Morocco.
CAF had said it would reassess the situation in Guinea in mid-September but is yet to announce the lifting of the temporary ban.
AP
This story has been automatically published from the Associated Press wire which uses US spellings
Guinea says it is clear to host games amid Ebola
6:25 AM Tuesday Sep 16, 2014
CONAKRY, Guinea (AP) The Guinea football federation says it has been cleared to host African Cup qualifying games again after the deadly Ebola outbreak led to a temporary ban.
Federation spokesman Blaise Mamadouba Camara said Monday the Confederation of African Football has lifted the embargo on games in the country, where nearly 500 people have died in the West African Ebola crisis.
According to Camara, Guinea can now host Ghana at the 28 September Stadium in Conakry in its next Group E qualifier next month. Guinea played its first home game in the final round of 2015 African Cup of Nations qualifiers in neutral Morocco.
CAF had said it would reassess the situation in Guinea in mid-September but is yet to announce the lifting of the temporary ban.
AP
This story has been automatically published from the Associated Press wire which uses US spellings
This is insane. Clear of Ebola?
review in mid September?
Jesus help us as the inmates are running the asylum.
bw
Fringe Ranger
Beam me up Scotty; there's no intelligent life down here.
Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/cdc-issues-ebola-checklist-now-is-the-time-to-prepare/article/2553396
CDC issues Ebola checklist: 'Now is the time to prepare'
By Paul Bedard | September 15, 2014 | 11:34 am
Topics: Washington Secrets FEMA HHS CDC Ebola
Photo -
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warning hospitals and doctors that “now is the time to prepare,” has issued a six-page Ebola “checklist” to help healthcare workers quickly determine if patients are infected.
While the CDC does not believe that there are new cases of Ebola in the United States, the assumption in the checklist is that it is only a matter of time before the virus hits home.
For example, one part reads: “Encourage healthcare personnel to use a ‘buddy system’ when caring for patients.” Another recommends a process to report cases to top officials:
Plan for regular situational briefs for decision-makers, including:
-- Suspected and confirmed EVD patients who have been identified and reported to public health authorities.
-- Isolation, quarantine and exposure reports.
-- Supplies and logistical challenges.
-- Personnel status, and policy decisions on contingency plans and staffing.
The checklist has been distributed to major hospitals and even little ones, including an urgent center in Leesburg, Va.
“Every hospital should ensure that it can detect a patient with Ebola, protect healthcare workers so they can safely care for the patient, and respond in a coordinated fashion,” warns the CDC.
“While we are not aware of any domestic Ebola Virus Disease cases (other than two American citizens who were medically evacuated to the United States), now is the time to prepare, as it is possible that individuals with EVD in West Africa may travel to the United States, exhibit signs and symptoms of EVD, and present to facilities,” it adds.
Several hospital and medical websites have just begun to post the checklist online.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at pbedard@washingtonexaminer.com.
«
Page 1 of 6
»
Original Document (PDF) »
Contributed by: Paul Bedard, Washington Examiner
http://washingtonexaminer.com/cdc-issues-ebola-checklist-now-is-the-time-to-prepare/article/2553396
CDC issues Ebola checklist: 'Now is the time to prepare'
By Paul Bedard | September 15, 2014 | 11:34 am
Topics: Washington Secrets FEMA HHS CDC Ebola
Photo -
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warning hospitals and doctors that “now is the time to prepare,” has issued a six-page Ebola “checklist” to help healthcare workers quickly determine if patients are infected.
While the CDC does not believe that there are new cases of Ebola in the United States, the assumption in the checklist is that it is only a matter of time before the virus hits home.
For example, one part reads: “Encourage healthcare personnel to use a ‘buddy system’ when caring for patients.” Another recommends a process to report cases to top officials:
Plan for regular situational briefs for decision-makers, including:
-- Suspected and confirmed EVD patients who have been identified and reported to public health authorities.
-- Isolation, quarantine and exposure reports.
-- Supplies and logistical challenges.
-- Personnel status, and policy decisions on contingency plans and staffing.
The checklist has been distributed to major hospitals and even little ones, including an urgent center in Leesburg, Va.
“Every hospital should ensure that it can detect a patient with Ebola, protect healthcare workers so they can safely care for the patient, and respond in a coordinated fashion,” warns the CDC.
“While we are not aware of any domestic Ebola Virus Disease cases (other than two American citizens who were medically evacuated to the United States), now is the time to prepare, as it is possible that individuals with EVD in West Africa may travel to the United States, exhibit signs and symptoms of EVD, and present to facilities,” it adds.
Several hospital and medical websites have just begun to post the checklist online.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at pbedard@washingtonexaminer.com.
«
Page 1 of 6
»
Original Document (PDF) »
Contributed by: Paul Bedard, Washington Examiner
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
Kris, I am making several assumptions here.
The first is Ebola will be first a regional African epidemic. Granted, the decision to allow continued air travel is stupid, but I haven't seen much indication Ebola is spreading widely into First World countries. This means to me that the time frame for a global pandemic is slower than for the regional African one. I think your figures, in terms of time frame, are more likely to apply to Africa than to the rest of the world. I am not saying Ebola won't go global, but I am saying that I think it will take longer to do so, start slower than Africa and take longer.
I am basing this on several factors. The way Ebola spreads, UNTIL IT MUTATES INTO A TRUE AIRBORNE VECTOR, means you have to have somewhat close physical contact. The reason Ebola is spreading so widely and rapidly in Africa specifically relates to certain cultural practices, like washing corpses etc, the general lack of aseptic techniques, the poor training and equipping of medical personnel. The ongoing social collapse, combined with the medical system collapse means to me Ebola is finding fertile ground.
The first hurdle Ebola has to meet is to physically get to the First World. The second is it has to infect a second wave of people. I am reasonably confident that Mr. Sawyer, if he had made it to the US, would have been dealt with in a more professional and aseptic manner. Kris, when I take a hard look at the stupid and ineffective methods African authorities have taken in regard to Ebola, I have to think the First World countries will do a better job. Now if I am wrong, then I think your figures come into play.
Finally, I think it will be several months or more, well into the spring/summer/fall time frame before Ebola gets to the First World countries. Once here it will fact a more advanced, more functional, better trained and much better supplied medical care system.
Ebola is going to get to the USA eventually, Kris. I am just saying that we need to be careful and realize the dismal African response does not translate into what will happen in the USA. I actually find it comforting the number of "suspected" Ebola cases in the USA. If you compare the medical response to these cases, with the level of stupidity in Africa I am somewhat optimistic we will have a better handle on it.
I realize with a nickname like Doomer Doug I am expected to expect the worst case. I do fully expect the utter and complete worst case in Africa. Africa is DOOMED! I am on record as saying what we now know as Africa isn't going to exist one year from now. It will take that long for BOTH EBOLA EPIDEMICS, the West African one, as well as the DRC one, to kick in and spread into every single African country with lethal results. Still, that has little real impact on the rest of the world. Ebola may spread into the middle east due to the Muslim religious festival. It may spread into South America or the Far East. If, or when it does, it will find the same dysfunctional health care systems and corrupt governments. The results will be predictable.
Of course, I could be wrong in the time frame for Ebola to make it to Europe or the USA. Even if it does it will not spread as fast as in Africa. Kris, who do you know that washes corpses? The media coverage means that anybody in the USA who sees some black person vomiting on a bus for instance is going to FREAK OUT and notify authorities. For all their legion of faults, both WHO and the CDC have at least been reasonably competent in alerting American health authorities to Ebola's potential. Again, they are in full CYA and political cover mode, but as long as the right thing is being done I don't care.
I just don't see Mr. Sawyer, or the other runners, being allowed to run around infecting people in the USA at all.
The first is Ebola will be first a regional African epidemic. Granted, the decision to allow continued air travel is stupid, but I haven't seen much indication Ebola is spreading widely into First World countries. This means to me that the time frame for a global pandemic is slower than for the regional African one. I think your figures, in terms of time frame, are more likely to apply to Africa than to the rest of the world. I am not saying Ebola won't go global, but I am saying that I think it will take longer to do so, start slower than Africa and take longer.
I am basing this on several factors. The way Ebola spreads, UNTIL IT MUTATES INTO A TRUE AIRBORNE VECTOR, means you have to have somewhat close physical contact. The reason Ebola is spreading so widely and rapidly in Africa specifically relates to certain cultural practices, like washing corpses etc, the general lack of aseptic techniques, the poor training and equipping of medical personnel. The ongoing social collapse, combined with the medical system collapse means to me Ebola is finding fertile ground.
The first hurdle Ebola has to meet is to physically get to the First World. The second is it has to infect a second wave of people. I am reasonably confident that Mr. Sawyer, if he had made it to the US, would have been dealt with in a more professional and aseptic manner. Kris, when I take a hard look at the stupid and ineffective methods African authorities have taken in regard to Ebola, I have to think the First World countries will do a better job. Now if I am wrong, then I think your figures come into play.
Finally, I think it will be several months or more, well into the spring/summer/fall time frame before Ebola gets to the First World countries. Once here it will fact a more advanced, more functional, better trained and much better supplied medical care system.
Ebola is going to get to the USA eventually, Kris. I am just saying that we need to be careful and realize the dismal African response does not translate into what will happen in the USA. I actually find it comforting the number of "suspected" Ebola cases in the USA. If you compare the medical response to these cases, with the level of stupidity in Africa I am somewhat optimistic we will have a better handle on it.
I realize with a nickname like Doomer Doug I am expected to expect the worst case. I do fully expect the utter and complete worst case in Africa. Africa is DOOMED! I am on record as saying what we now know as Africa isn't going to exist one year from now. It will take that long for BOTH EBOLA EPIDEMICS, the West African one, as well as the DRC one, to kick in and spread into every single African country with lethal results. Still, that has little real impact on the rest of the world. Ebola may spread into the middle east due to the Muslim religious festival. It may spread into South America or the Far East. If, or when it does, it will find the same dysfunctional health care systems and corrupt governments. The results will be predictable.
Of course, I could be wrong in the time frame for Ebola to make it to Europe or the USA. Even if it does it will not spread as fast as in Africa. Kris, who do you know that washes corpses? The media coverage means that anybody in the USA who sees some black person vomiting on a bus for instance is going to FREAK OUT and notify authorities. For all their legion of faults, both WHO and the CDC have at least been reasonably competent in alerting American health authorities to Ebola's potential. Again, they are in full CYA and political cover mode, but as long as the right thing is being done I don't care.
I just don't see Mr. Sawyer, or the other runners, being allowed to run around infecting people in the USA at all.
Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00032577.html
West Africa: Obama to Announce Ebola Czar As Businesses, Senators Press for More
ALLAFRICA.COM, 13 SEPTEMBER 2014
By Tami Hultman and Reed Kramer
Washington, DC — President Obama will announce the appointment of a high-level coordinator to manage the U.S. response to the Ebola outbreak when he visits Atlanta on Tuesday, administration sources have told AllAfrica.
White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said Friday that the president is visiting the Atlanta, Georgia-based U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to receive a briefing from officials at the organization, whose director, Dr. Thomas Frieden, visited the region last month.
Obama will also discuss U.S. assistance to fight the Ebola virus and will thank the doctors, scientists and health care workers who have been engaged in the effort to stop its escalating spread. A stepped-up administration plan, which has been discussed by officials from across the executive branch for more than a month, received higher level attention this past week as the scope of the outbreak became more widely acknowledged – at least partly in response to pressure from private sector companies engaged in the most-affected countries and from members of Congress [See Ebola 'Racing Ahead' of Response]
Companies Organizing, Deploying Aid
ArcelorMittal, a multinational steel manufacturing corporation headquartered in Luxembourg - which has profitable iron ore mining operations in Liberia - has been hosting telephone conferences for a number of weeks among dozens of global companies, mostly in mining, on an Ebola response. After internal discussions, the companies widened the dialogue to include health officials, such as World Health Organization Director Margaret Chan.
Last Monday, chief executives from 11 of the companies operating in the three most-affected countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, made an urgent appeal for the international community "to pool its resources and lend support" to fight Ebola.
"Our companies have made long term commitments to these countries and their people and we intend to honour these commitments," the executives said. "Despite the challenging environment, we are continuing where possible with normal operations, with the health and safety of our employees being the absolute priority at all times."
Riva Levinson, whose boutique Washington DC-based firm KRL International serves both government and corporate clients in west Africa, applauded the private sector efforts as "a valuable tool for mobilization of resources". She noted that the corporate consultations started before global health organizations and governments, with few exceptions, recognized the urgency of a large-scale response.
Businesses have been sharing information and pooling assets for the Ebola fight in a creative and coordinated way that other sectors should emulate, she said in an interview.
"Companies are inventorying their assets to deploy on the front line to support humanitarian and healthcare workers on a real-time emergency basis," she said. Their activities include grading roads, providing equipment, including generators, and contributing materials such as chlorine solutions.
"It's not going to turn the tide," Levinson said of the corporate effort, "but it's going to have an impact."
United States envoys in the three most-affected countries are now points of contact for the broader donor and in-country efforts. There are working groups led by company teams at the operational level in each of the countries, and in Liberia that coordination is managed by a Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) from USAID.
Senators Call on Administration and Congress to Act
Speaking on the Senate floor on Thursday, Delaware Democrat Chris Coons, who heads the Foreign Relations Africa Subcommittee, called for the appointment of a coordinator, saying it is "critical" for the U.S. government to have "one leadership point". Coons appealed to the administration and members of Congress "to dramatically increase our support as communities across West Africa struggle to confront and combat Ebola."
Vermont Democrat Patrick Leahy also addressed the Senate, decrying "the lack of urgency exhibited by much of the international community" and governments, "including our own." He paid tribute to "courageous public health workers who have risked their lives" and to the Liberian government for its efforts "in the face of woefully inadequate resources."
Leahy, who chairs the subcommittee that oversees appropriations for the State Department and other international activities and is the Senate's most senior member, said large budget cuts at the World Health Organization contributed to the slow response, with "ample blame to go around."
He said Ebola is "a public health issue, a moral issue, and one that should unite us all to do what is necessary to defeat this epidemic."
On the House side of the U.S. Congress a hearing has been scheduled for Wednesday by the Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations to hear from the National Institutes of Health and other experts.
Waiting for More Government Engagement
The Obama administration raised hopes a week ago for the more robust response that the private sector and front-line treatment organizations – most prominently Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF / Doctors Without Borders) have been advocating. In an NBC Meet the Press interview last Sunday, Obama called Ebola "a national security priority" and pledged that "military assets" would be deployed to assist with efforts to end the epidemic.
The 11 corporate CEOs welcomed "the declaration by President Obama concerning US military support" as "exactly the type of action that is required."
The private sector and WHO had been calling for logistical and material support for treatment and isolation facilities in the region. They believed that international health workers would be reassured that they could be taken care of if they answered the call to support the hundreds of local clinicians and thousands of local volunteers who have felt abandoned in their efforts.
But the revelation that one of the interventions will be a 25-bed hospital in Monrovia to treat health workers spurred scathing critiques from despairing public health professionals and prompted a Twitter storm of derision. Administration officials countered the angry reactions by insisting that the complex facility is only one element of a larger response.
But even those who publicly praised the U.S. response have said it is still far too little to make the critical difference necessary if the epidemic is to be contained in the west African region.
President-to-President Appeal
Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, whose country has been hardest hit by the unprecedented outbreak, partly because of the improved road network leading from the border with Guinea to the Liberian capital Monrovia, made a direct appeal to her American counterpart in a letter dated 9 September.
"Our already limited resources have been stretched to breaking point and up to now only a private charity, Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), has responded robustly in all the affected countries," she wrote. "But they too have reached their limits."
Johnson Sirleaf pointed out that MSF has over 400 beds of Ebola patients in the region "and not a single staff - medical or support - has ever gotten infected in those centers." The Liberian president also told President Obama: "Without more direct help from your government, we will lose this battle against Ebola."
Those working in the three countries - whether businesses or non-governmental organizations - share the conviction that much more must be done by the international community and that there must be a 'command and control' authority to coordinate the disparate efforts of both local governments and global partners. Only the United Nations, many believe, is positioned to play that essential role.
On Friday, during a meeting of the National Security Council Principals Committee, the Obama administration's senior interagency foreign policy decision-making forum, where Ebola was a principal topic for the second time that week, a series of new measures were agreed. Among them, according to officials familiar with the deliberations who are not authorized to speak on the record, was the naming of a senior official to oversee the government's efforts.
USAID, whose personnel in the affected countries include the DART team in Liberia, has contributed $19.5 million for the Ebola response in west Africa. The 'continuing resolution' on the U.S. budget that Congress is expected to pass before adjourning would add another $88 million designated for Ebola efforts. If additional funding the White House has requested for CDC is approved, the U.S. contribution would total about $250 million.
Bipartisan support appears to be growing in Congress for a larger scale supplemental appropriation to urgently address the escalating crisis.
The White House has not released details on an additional role for the Defense Department or the Pentagon's Africa Command. But on Friday, the American ambassador to Liberia, Deborah Malac, told reporters in Monrovia that Liberian security forces would be receiving training from the U.S. military.
The CDC that Obama will visit Tuesday is on "highest alert level", Dr. Tom Kenyon, director of the CDC Center for Global Health, told a briefing Friday for representatives of American companies at the Corporate Council on Africa (CCA) in Washington DC. Kenyon, who travelled to the three countries most directly impacted by the disease with CDC head Frieden, said that alert has only occurred four times this decade. CDC has nearly 200 personnel working on Ebola in Atlanta and about 105 in west Africa, he said.
The briefing included presentations by Deputy Secretary of State Bisa Williams, Dr. Marcos Espinal from the World Health Organization and Carol Chan from USAID. The officials stressed the pressing need for additional human and material resources and appealed for private sector assistance, particularly from those with applicable assets on the ground.
Company representatives expressed support but said efforts were hampered by lack of clarity on what is needed and uncertainty about coordination. They requested specifics on what medical supplies, pharmaceuticals and other forms of assistance are needed, and Dr. Espinal said WHO will be issuing a list within the next few days.
"Companies need to know where to go when they want to contribute materials, provide logistics or expertise or get advice for their employees," said CCA President Stephen Hayes, summing up what he is hearing from his corporate members. "Right now, I don't think that command-and-control function is in place - or if it is, it is not obvious to the private sector."
Tami Hultman reported from Kigali
http://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00032577.html
West Africa: Obama to Announce Ebola Czar As Businesses, Senators Press for More
ALLAFRICA.COM, 13 SEPTEMBER 2014
By Tami Hultman and Reed Kramer
Washington, DC — President Obama will announce the appointment of a high-level coordinator to manage the U.S. response to the Ebola outbreak when he visits Atlanta on Tuesday, administration sources have told AllAfrica.
White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said Friday that the president is visiting the Atlanta, Georgia-based U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to receive a briefing from officials at the organization, whose director, Dr. Thomas Frieden, visited the region last month.
Obama will also discuss U.S. assistance to fight the Ebola virus and will thank the doctors, scientists and health care workers who have been engaged in the effort to stop its escalating spread. A stepped-up administration plan, which has been discussed by officials from across the executive branch for more than a month, received higher level attention this past week as the scope of the outbreak became more widely acknowledged – at least partly in response to pressure from private sector companies engaged in the most-affected countries and from members of Congress [See Ebola 'Racing Ahead' of Response]
Companies Organizing, Deploying Aid
ArcelorMittal, a multinational steel manufacturing corporation headquartered in Luxembourg - which has profitable iron ore mining operations in Liberia - has been hosting telephone conferences for a number of weeks among dozens of global companies, mostly in mining, on an Ebola response. After internal discussions, the companies widened the dialogue to include health officials, such as World Health Organization Director Margaret Chan.
Last Monday, chief executives from 11 of the companies operating in the three most-affected countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, made an urgent appeal for the international community "to pool its resources and lend support" to fight Ebola.
"Our companies have made long term commitments to these countries and their people and we intend to honour these commitments," the executives said. "Despite the challenging environment, we are continuing where possible with normal operations, with the health and safety of our employees being the absolute priority at all times."
Riva Levinson, whose boutique Washington DC-based firm KRL International serves both government and corporate clients in west Africa, applauded the private sector efforts as "a valuable tool for mobilization of resources". She noted that the corporate consultations started before global health organizations and governments, with few exceptions, recognized the urgency of a large-scale response.
Businesses have been sharing information and pooling assets for the Ebola fight in a creative and coordinated way that other sectors should emulate, she said in an interview.
"Companies are inventorying their assets to deploy on the front line to support humanitarian and healthcare workers on a real-time emergency basis," she said. Their activities include grading roads, providing equipment, including generators, and contributing materials such as chlorine solutions.
"It's not going to turn the tide," Levinson said of the corporate effort, "but it's going to have an impact."
United States envoys in the three most-affected countries are now points of contact for the broader donor and in-country efforts. There are working groups led by company teams at the operational level in each of the countries, and in Liberia that coordination is managed by a Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) from USAID.
Senators Call on Administration and Congress to Act
Speaking on the Senate floor on Thursday, Delaware Democrat Chris Coons, who heads the Foreign Relations Africa Subcommittee, called for the appointment of a coordinator, saying it is "critical" for the U.S. government to have "one leadership point". Coons appealed to the administration and members of Congress "to dramatically increase our support as communities across West Africa struggle to confront and combat Ebola."
Vermont Democrat Patrick Leahy also addressed the Senate, decrying "the lack of urgency exhibited by much of the international community" and governments, "including our own." He paid tribute to "courageous public health workers who have risked their lives" and to the Liberian government for its efforts "in the face of woefully inadequate resources."
Leahy, who chairs the subcommittee that oversees appropriations for the State Department and other international activities and is the Senate's most senior member, said large budget cuts at the World Health Organization contributed to the slow response, with "ample blame to go around."
He said Ebola is "a public health issue, a moral issue, and one that should unite us all to do what is necessary to defeat this epidemic."
On the House side of the U.S. Congress a hearing has been scheduled for Wednesday by the Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations to hear from the National Institutes of Health and other experts.
Waiting for More Government Engagement
The Obama administration raised hopes a week ago for the more robust response that the private sector and front-line treatment organizations – most prominently Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF / Doctors Without Borders) have been advocating. In an NBC Meet the Press interview last Sunday, Obama called Ebola "a national security priority" and pledged that "military assets" would be deployed to assist with efforts to end the epidemic.
The 11 corporate CEOs welcomed "the declaration by President Obama concerning US military support" as "exactly the type of action that is required."
The private sector and WHO had been calling for logistical and material support for treatment and isolation facilities in the region. They believed that international health workers would be reassured that they could be taken care of if they answered the call to support the hundreds of local clinicians and thousands of local volunteers who have felt abandoned in their efforts.
But the revelation that one of the interventions will be a 25-bed hospital in Monrovia to treat health workers spurred scathing critiques from despairing public health professionals and prompted a Twitter storm of derision. Administration officials countered the angry reactions by insisting that the complex facility is only one element of a larger response.
But even those who publicly praised the U.S. response have said it is still far too little to make the critical difference necessary if the epidemic is to be contained in the west African region.
President-to-President Appeal
Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, whose country has been hardest hit by the unprecedented outbreak, partly because of the improved road network leading from the border with Guinea to the Liberian capital Monrovia, made a direct appeal to her American counterpart in a letter dated 9 September.
"Our already limited resources have been stretched to breaking point and up to now only a private charity, Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), has responded robustly in all the affected countries," she wrote. "But they too have reached their limits."
Johnson Sirleaf pointed out that MSF has over 400 beds of Ebola patients in the region "and not a single staff - medical or support - has ever gotten infected in those centers." The Liberian president also told President Obama: "Without more direct help from your government, we will lose this battle against Ebola."
Those working in the three countries - whether businesses or non-governmental organizations - share the conviction that much more must be done by the international community and that there must be a 'command and control' authority to coordinate the disparate efforts of both local governments and global partners. Only the United Nations, many believe, is positioned to play that essential role.
On Friday, during a meeting of the National Security Council Principals Committee, the Obama administration's senior interagency foreign policy decision-making forum, where Ebola was a principal topic for the second time that week, a series of new measures were agreed. Among them, according to officials familiar with the deliberations who are not authorized to speak on the record, was the naming of a senior official to oversee the government's efforts.
USAID, whose personnel in the affected countries include the DART team in Liberia, has contributed $19.5 million for the Ebola response in west Africa. The 'continuing resolution' on the U.S. budget that Congress is expected to pass before adjourning would add another $88 million designated for Ebola efforts. If additional funding the White House has requested for CDC is approved, the U.S. contribution would total about $250 million.
Bipartisan support appears to be growing in Congress for a larger scale supplemental appropriation to urgently address the escalating crisis.
The White House has not released details on an additional role for the Defense Department or the Pentagon's Africa Command. But on Friday, the American ambassador to Liberia, Deborah Malac, told reporters in Monrovia that Liberian security forces would be receiving training from the U.S. military.
The CDC that Obama will visit Tuesday is on "highest alert level", Dr. Tom Kenyon, director of the CDC Center for Global Health, told a briefing Friday for representatives of American companies at the Corporate Council on Africa (CCA) in Washington DC. Kenyon, who travelled to the three countries most directly impacted by the disease with CDC head Frieden, said that alert has only occurred four times this decade. CDC has nearly 200 personnel working on Ebola in Atlanta and about 105 in west Africa, he said.
The briefing included presentations by Deputy Secretary of State Bisa Williams, Dr. Marcos Espinal from the World Health Organization and Carol Chan from USAID. The officials stressed the pressing need for additional human and material resources and appealed for private sector assistance, particularly from those with applicable assets on the ground.
Company representatives expressed support but said efforts were hampered by lack of clarity on what is needed and uncertainty about coordination. They requested specifics on what medical supplies, pharmaceuticals and other forms of assistance are needed, and Dr. Espinal said WHO will be issuing a list within the next few days.
"Companies need to know where to go when they want to contribute materials, provide logistics or expertise or get advice for their employees," said CCA President Stephen Hayes, summing up what he is hearing from his corporate members. "Right now, I don't think that command-and-control function is in place - or if it is, it is not obvious to the private sector."
Tami Hultman reported from Kigali
Posted for fair use and discussion. H/t Pixie
http://medicalxpress.com/news/2014-09-dutch-doctors-ebola-hospital.html?
Dutch doctors feared to have Ebola leave hospital
September 15, 2014
Two Dutch doctors flown home from west Africa after fears they might have been contaminated with the killer Ebola virus have left hospital "in good health," their employer, the Lion Heart Medical Centre, said Monday.
But the pair, Erdi Huizenga and Nick Zwinkels, have put themselves into voluntary quarantine for another two weeks at an unspecified location in the Netherlands as a precaution, it added in a statement on its Facebook page.
"They don't want to pose any risk for those around them and think that it would be best to not yet return to their homes," the charity said.
Huizenga, 39, and Zwinkels, 31, were on Sunday repatriated from Sierra Leone, where they had been working in a clinic their charity runs in the western town of Yele.
They were not presenting any symptoms of Ebola, a virus which has killed more than 2,400 people in west Africa so far this year in an epidemic international organisations said was running out of control.
But Zwinkels recently told Dutch state television that he and Huizenga has come into contact with Ebola-infected patients in the Sierra Leone clinic, which mostly treats malaria cases, and were "very concerned" because one other staff member in the hospital had died of the virus.
Several Western health workers have been flown home after being contaminated and given experimental drugs to combat the disease. Most have recovered.
The Ebola outbreak ravaging west Africa has killed more than 2,400 people since it erupted earlier this year, according to the World Health Organization.
Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia are the hardest-hit countries.
Although no vaccine is commercially available, early treatment involving constant rehydration and medication to alleviate fever increases the chances of survival.
http://medicalxpress.com/news/2014-09-dutch-doctors-ebola-hospital.html?
Dutch doctors feared to have Ebola leave hospital
September 15, 2014
Two Dutch doctors flown home from west Africa after fears they might have been contaminated with the killer Ebola virus have left hospital "in good health," their employer, the Lion Heart Medical Centre, said Monday.
But the pair, Erdi Huizenga and Nick Zwinkels, have put themselves into voluntary quarantine for another two weeks at an unspecified location in the Netherlands as a precaution, it added in a statement on its Facebook page.
"They don't want to pose any risk for those around them and think that it would be best to not yet return to their homes," the charity said.
Huizenga, 39, and Zwinkels, 31, were on Sunday repatriated from Sierra Leone, where they had been working in a clinic their charity runs in the western town of Yele.
They were not presenting any symptoms of Ebola, a virus which has killed more than 2,400 people in west Africa so far this year in an epidemic international organisations said was running out of control.
But Zwinkels recently told Dutch state television that he and Huizenga has come into contact with Ebola-infected patients in the Sierra Leone clinic, which mostly treats malaria cases, and were "very concerned" because one other staff member in the hospital had died of the virus.
Several Western health workers have been flown home after being contaminated and given experimental drugs to combat the disease. Most have recovered.
The Ebola outbreak ravaging west Africa has killed more than 2,400 people since it erupted earlier this year, according to the World Health Organization.
Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia are the hardest-hit countries.
Although no vaccine is commercially available, early treatment involving constant rehydration and medication to alleviate fever increases the chances of survival.
Posted for fair use and discussion. H/t Pixie
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...6f208-3d17-11e4-b0ea-8141703bbf6f_story.html?
Leading from behind the curve on Ebola
By Michael Gerson
Opinion writer
September 15 at 7:55 PM
The nation of Liberia — founded by liberated American slaves with support from Henry Clay, Daniel Webster and James Monroe — is not unacquainted with suffering. Two civil wars in the period from 1989 to 2003 and decades of economic mismanagement caused an 80 percent decline in per capita GDP — perhaps worse than any country since World War II. Warlords reduced Liberia’s infrastructure to rubble. In the 15 years following 1991, there was no electricity in the country except for private generators.
When I last visited in 2012, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf (Africa’s first female president) was leading a tentative recovery. She talked of action plans on reconstruction, development and health infrastructure. All are now in ruins. Sirleaf recently sent a letter to President Obama saying that Ebola threatens to “overwhelm us.” Her defense minister warns that Liberia’s “national existence” is at stake. Sirleaf just sacked 10 senior government officials who have fled the country and refused to return — hardly a reassuring development in a frightened nation.
What difference does one more misfortune make in a distant, unfortunate place? A big difference, it turns out. The welcome globalization of markets, culture and travel also involves the unavoidable globalization of threats, including terrorism and pandemic diseases. A virus infecting a single patient — perhaps, in this case, a 2-year-old boy from a Guinea border town who died just before Christmas in 2013 — can reduce three countries (Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone) to desperation and civil disorder, result in the August declaration of an international health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) and raise the prospect of further spread and (more remotely) of disastrous genetic mutation. There is no escape, no isolation, no sanctuary. Any doctrine of “non-intervention” in such a world is not only a dream but a danger.
This is the context in which President Obama has properly decided to step up the U.S. response to the Ebola outbreak — a plan involving additional hospital beds, an expanding role for the Defense Department and broader efforts to prevent the rapid spread of the disease in places such as Nigeria (which would be a regional and global nightmare).
Whatever the intentions of the president’s plan, its success will be measured by a few things. Speed is essential — even days of delay would have large consequences given the upward curve of cases. Coordination is key — other governments, international institutions and nongovernmental organizations need someone to be unequivocally in charge on the ground. And a massive education effort will be essential — the next stage of preventing transmission may require people who fear they are infected to stay in place, wait to see if they get sick and then be nursed by relatives with home-care kits (if an Ebola treatment facility is not readily available).
The Ebola outbreak is a continuing crisis that will doubtlessly demand further resources and effort. But it is also a stress test for future emergencies. The virus, at this point, spreads through contact with bodily fluids. Future threats may only require a touch or a cough. This is not alarmism but a repeated pattern of struggle between humans and microbes, in which humans have often suffered massive casualties (the 1918 flu pandemic killed *3 percent to 5 percent of the world’s population).
This test has revealed several weaknesses:
First, we have seen how diseases take root and grow in parts of the world with fragile or nonexistent health systems, where the normal responses to disease outbreaks (case investigation, contact tracing) quickly break down. There is no better argument than Ebola for addressing massive global disparities in health infrastructure.
Second, we have seen the essential hollowness of the response of international institutions. The United Nations and WHO issue warnings and assemble road maps and blueprints, but they do not constitute an effective emergency response mechanism. The world needs one.
Third, we have seen that the U.S. government’s response to an outbreak can be fragmented and slow off the mark. The administration offered an incrementally growing response to an exponentially growing problem. In this case, expertise and a sense of urgency were scattered unevenly across bureaucracies including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the Department of Health and Human Services, the State Department, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Defense Department.
All these varied capabilities — so essential during a global health emergency — become more difficult to summon from behind the curve.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...6f208-3d17-11e4-b0ea-8141703bbf6f_story.html?
Leading from behind the curve on Ebola
By Michael Gerson
Opinion writer
September 15 at 7:55 PM
The nation of Liberia — founded by liberated American slaves with support from Henry Clay, Daniel Webster and James Monroe — is not unacquainted with suffering. Two civil wars in the period from 1989 to 2003 and decades of economic mismanagement caused an 80 percent decline in per capita GDP — perhaps worse than any country since World War II. Warlords reduced Liberia’s infrastructure to rubble. In the 15 years following 1991, there was no electricity in the country except for private generators.
When I last visited in 2012, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf (Africa’s first female president) was leading a tentative recovery. She talked of action plans on reconstruction, development and health infrastructure. All are now in ruins. Sirleaf recently sent a letter to President Obama saying that Ebola threatens to “overwhelm us.” Her defense minister warns that Liberia’s “national existence” is at stake. Sirleaf just sacked 10 senior government officials who have fled the country and refused to return — hardly a reassuring development in a frightened nation.
What difference does one more misfortune make in a distant, unfortunate place? A big difference, it turns out. The welcome globalization of markets, culture and travel also involves the unavoidable globalization of threats, including terrorism and pandemic diseases. A virus infecting a single patient — perhaps, in this case, a 2-year-old boy from a Guinea border town who died just before Christmas in 2013 — can reduce three countries (Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone) to desperation and civil disorder, result in the August declaration of an international health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) and raise the prospect of further spread and (more remotely) of disastrous genetic mutation. There is no escape, no isolation, no sanctuary. Any doctrine of “non-intervention” in such a world is not only a dream but a danger.
This is the context in which President Obama has properly decided to step up the U.S. response to the Ebola outbreak — a plan involving additional hospital beds, an expanding role for the Defense Department and broader efforts to prevent the rapid spread of the disease in places such as Nigeria (which would be a regional and global nightmare).
Whatever the intentions of the president’s plan, its success will be measured by a few things. Speed is essential — even days of delay would have large consequences given the upward curve of cases. Coordination is key — other governments, international institutions and nongovernmental organizations need someone to be unequivocally in charge on the ground. And a massive education effort will be essential — the next stage of preventing transmission may require people who fear they are infected to stay in place, wait to see if they get sick and then be nursed by relatives with home-care kits (if an Ebola treatment facility is not readily available).
The Ebola outbreak is a continuing crisis that will doubtlessly demand further resources and effort. But it is also a stress test for future emergencies. The virus, at this point, spreads through contact with bodily fluids. Future threats may only require a touch or a cough. This is not alarmism but a repeated pattern of struggle between humans and microbes, in which humans have often suffered massive casualties (the 1918 flu pandemic killed *3 percent to 5 percent of the world’s population).
This test has revealed several weaknesses:
First, we have seen how diseases take root and grow in parts of the world with fragile or nonexistent health systems, where the normal responses to disease outbreaks (case investigation, contact tracing) quickly break down. There is no better argument than Ebola for addressing massive global disparities in health infrastructure.
Second, we have seen the essential hollowness of the response of international institutions. The United Nations and WHO issue warnings and assemble road maps and blueprints, but they do not constitute an effective emergency response mechanism. The world needs one.
Third, we have seen that the U.S. government’s response to an outbreak can be fragmented and slow off the mark. The administration offered an incrementally growing response to an exponentially growing problem. In this case, expertise and a sense of urgency were scattered unevenly across bureaucracies including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the Department of Health and Human Services, the State Department, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Defense Department.
All these varied capabilities — so essential during a global health emergency — become more difficult to summon from behind the curve.
ainitfunny
Saved, to glorify God.
MAJOR NEWS!
Common sense triumphs! Obama's idea to station US NAVY Hospital ships off Liberia to treat Ebola patients SCRAPPED,
AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN!!
Common sense triumphs! Obama's idea to station US NAVY Hospital ships off Liberia to treat Ebola patients SCRAPPED,
AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN!!
meandk0610
Veteran Member
"Although no vaccine is commercially available, early treatment involving constant rehydration and medication to alleviate fever increases the chances of survival. "
So you need to try to reduce the fever instead of letting the fever help? (BTW, anyone else's internet just suck tonight?
So you need to try to reduce the fever instead of letting the fever help? (BTW, anyone else's internet just suck tonight?
bw
Fringe Ranger
Fever over about 104-105 can cause brain damage, IIRC. Other than that, let it run IMO.
And I totally agree....and have since the beginning. Early on I pointed out that this thing can stay almost entirely isolated to the continent of Africa, population 1.1 Billion+ through August 2015. That would put us at potentially the whole continent exposed/infected with over 500 million dead IN AFRICA alone at that point.
The last 2-3 months after that ( up to worldwide 7 Billion) only happen if it gets totally out of control in the 1st world countries, which at this point, I agree is unlikely but not impossible.
Kris
Medical Maven
Deceased
The collateral damage deaths will extend to the rest of the world even if New Ebola never breaks out of Africa in a big way. The financial/geopolitical repercussions of having a whole continent go down are incalculable. In very short order such a happening is likely to spin-off multiple vectors of bloody chaos. We who are elsewhere will not go unscathed, far from it. And following the chaos we will be vulnerable to the spread of New Ebola
And never forget New Ebola's ace-in-the-hole for spread to the rest of the world-TERRORISM. And that can happen any time, near term or following the resultant chaos of having all of Africa go down.
So in the two above ways, despite our best efforts, the World Killer comes to our Door.
bw
Fringe Ranger
That's a billion chances at becoming airborne. Odds are in Ebola's favor, IMO. And once/if that happens, the fact that we don't much lay hands on corpses in the first world will not help us.
UN Security Council to Meet on Ebola
UNITED NATIONS — Sep 15, 2014, 3:27 PM ET
By EDITH M. LEDERER Associated Press
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/diplomat-security-council-meet-ebola-25516380
The United States called an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security
Council Thursday on the Ebola crisis in West Africa, saying the situation
on the ground is "dire" and getting worse every day.
U.S. U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power said the United States has asked
the 193 U.N. member states to come to the meeting with "concrete
commitments" to tackle the outbreak, especially in hardest-hit Liberia,
Sierra Leone and Guinea.
"The trendlines in this crisis are grave, and without immediate
international action we are facing the potential for a public health crisis
that could claim lives on a scale far greater than current estimates, and
set the countries of West Africa back a generation," Power told reporters
on Monday. "This is a perilous crisis but one we can contain if the
international community comes together to meet it head on."
The worst Ebola outbreak in history has hit Liberia, Sierra Leone and
Guinea hardest and also reached Nigeria and Senegal. It has been
blamed for more than 2,200 deaths. Ebola is spread through direct
contact with the bodily fluids of sick patients, making doctors and nurses
especially vulnerable to contracting the virus that has no vaccine or
approved treatment.
"We can contain this," Power said. "We know how to do it and we must
avoid panic and fear, but our collective response to date has not been
sufficient. We must move forward aggressively in a coordinated fashion."
Power said the meeting Thursday afternoon would mark a rare occasion
when the Security Council, which is responsible for threats to
international peace and security, addresses a public health crisis.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected to brief the council along
with World Health Organization chief Dr. Margaret Chan and Dr. David
Nabarro, the recently named U.N. coordinator to tackle the disease, as
well as representatives from the affected countries.
A diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because the official
announcement has not yet been made, said it would be only the
second time the council takes on a public health issue.
The late former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Richard
Holbrooke, organized a council meeting in January 2000 on the AIDS
pandemic, which was addressed by then vice-president Al Gore.
they are trying to put a fence around this.
Yes, imo this is one of the stages of societal breakdown as well as political damage control. Its an important indicator to watch for as each of these nations disintegrates.
Posted for fair use and discussion. H/t Monotreme
http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-military-to-send-3-000-to-battle-ebola-virus-1410840310
U.S. Military to Send 3,000 to Battle Ebola Virus
Betsy Mckay Sept. 16, 2014
The U.S. military will deploy about 3,000 personnel to West Africa to coordinate international aid, build treatment centers and train health-care workers as part of President Barack Obama's offensive against a rapidly worsening Ebola outbreak, a senior administration official said Monday.
The military will make up the largest component of an intensified U.S. government response to the outbreak that Mr. Obama plans to discuss during a visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta on Tuesday.
His proposal, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, calls for the U.S. to lead a stepped-up international effort to subdue the epidemic, which has sickened more than 4,784 people, of whom at least 2,400 have died, with most of the cases in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.
The U.S. Africa Command, one of the Defense Department's six regional units, will set up a headquarters in Monrovia, Liberia, "to provide command and control to support the U.S. military activities and to facilitate coordination with the U.S. government interagency and international relief efforts," the administration official said.
An army general will arrive in Monrovia by the end of this week to lead the effort, called Operation United Assistance, the official said.
The military will establish a staging base to distribute equipment, supplies and personnel, and deploy engineers to identify sites for and help build 17 treatment centers, each with 100 beds.
A facility to train as many as 500 health-care workers a week for up to six months also will be set up.
The efforts are part of a response that includes one of the CDC's largest ever deployments of public-health specialists, as well as health and disaster assistance from the U.S. Agency for International Development.
Public health and disaster experts have been calling for the U.S. to bolster its role and coordinate an aid effort that has been lacking and diffuse.
Still, it could take time.
The official said it would be a "couple of weeks" before the military has staff on the ground to conduct training for health-care workers, for example.
"What is needed here is a stepped-up and increased response and American leadership and know how," another senior administration official said.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-military-to-send-3-000-to-battle-ebola-virus-1410840310
U.S. Military to Send 3,000 to Battle Ebola Virus
Betsy Mckay Sept. 16, 2014
The U.S. military will deploy about 3,000 personnel to West Africa to coordinate international aid, build treatment centers and train health-care workers as part of President Barack Obama's offensive against a rapidly worsening Ebola outbreak, a senior administration official said Monday.
The military will make up the largest component of an intensified U.S. government response to the outbreak that Mr. Obama plans to discuss during a visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta on Tuesday.
His proposal, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, calls for the U.S. to lead a stepped-up international effort to subdue the epidemic, which has sickened more than 4,784 people, of whom at least 2,400 have died, with most of the cases in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.
The U.S. Africa Command, one of the Defense Department's six regional units, will set up a headquarters in Monrovia, Liberia, "to provide command and control to support the U.S. military activities and to facilitate coordination with the U.S. government interagency and international relief efforts," the administration official said.
An army general will arrive in Monrovia by the end of this week to lead the effort, called Operation United Assistance, the official said.
The military will establish a staging base to distribute equipment, supplies and personnel, and deploy engineers to identify sites for and help build 17 treatment centers, each with 100 beds.
A facility to train as many as 500 health-care workers a week for up to six months also will be set up.
The efforts are part of a response that includes one of the CDC's largest ever deployments of public-health specialists, as well as health and disaster assistance from the U.S. Agency for International Development.
Public health and disaster experts have been calling for the U.S. to bolster its role and coordinate an aid effort that has been lacking and diffuse.
Still, it could take time.
The official said it would be a "couple of weeks" before the military has staff on the ground to conduct training for health-care workers, for example.
"What is needed here is a stepped-up and increased response and American leadership and know how," another senior administration official said.
- Status