WEATHER Hurricane Ike Forms In The Atlantic

[penumbra]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060259
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT
TIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A
SMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OTHERWISE THE
INNER-CORE REMAINS WELL INTACT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT...OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE
ESTIMATES. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE'S STRENGTH.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT.
IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.

THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SINCE
IKE...STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE...LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND
INTERACTION. WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA...IT SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO LAND.
HOWEVER...IKE COULD BE WEAKER THAN SHOWN BELOW IF THE CENTER
MOVES OVER CUBA...AND CONVERSELY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IF IT
REMAINS OVER WATER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 22.6N 65.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 22.3N 67.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 70.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 21.9N 72.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.9N 75.3W 115 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 79.6W 110 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 82.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

 

[penumbra]

 

[Jarhead]

Add. tracking and models...

 

[Jarhead]

Image Updated: 3:10 AM GMT on September 06, 2008

 

[Jarhead]

I'm not liking the latest model run, not liking, not liking......

Did I mention I don't like the latest model runs....

Jarhead

 

[penumbra]

Watch out Key West. Talk about an evacuation nightmare!

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 060255
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2008

AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 64.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 70.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.9N 72.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.9N 75.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 79.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 65.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

 

[Hfcomms]

How about evacuation of the big easy again part duex?? That won't go over very well. Many can't or won't go again. I hope I'm wrong on this and it will take a few more days for the model concensus to really jell but this one could go real bad for the gulf coast. But hey, what do I know?? I thought that Gustav was really going to hold together better than it did too.

 

[Jarhead]

Latest Sat. images, vis, I/R, water vapor.....

 

[Jarhead]

Model Track Forecast

 

[Maranatha]

Ivan/Ike

The minute that Ivan was named, I knew it was coming to Pensacola. Since Ike was named, I've had a very uneasy feeling that the "I's have it" and once again NW FL is going to get slammed with a really BIG, STRONG hurricane. Seeing the tracks tonight, my stomach is lurching!

I am out of town, but will be home tomorrow, Lord willing. I have a very sick dog that I fear will not survive until I get home, much less the stress of an evacuation.

This will be 4 hurricanes to strike the US in a very short time period. And Ike could be the worst of all. I'm praying for all of those in the path of Hanna and of Ike.

I HATE hurricane season!!!

MARANATHA

 

[Jarhead]

From Crown Weather Services

Hurricane Ike:

I want to say up front that I continue to be very concerned about the future track and intensity of Ike and the potential impacts on the United States coastline, especially south Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas.

Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft have investigated Ike this afternoon and have confirmed what satellite imagery has been suggesting and that is that Ike is a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane this evening. Some weakening could occur in the next day or so due to persistent northerly shear and Ike could be knocked down to a low end Category 2 hurricane. However, this shear is forecast to diminish by late tomorrow and should allow strengthening by Sunday into Monday. In fact, rapid strengthening is possible late this weekend into early next week. All indications are pointing at that Ike may be a major Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane by Monday.

Ike is tracking west-southwest at a forward speed of 15 mph. Ike is forecast to turn back to the west by tomorrow night or Sunday as a ridge of high pressure to the northwest of Ike weakens somewhat. All of the global models indicate that there will be some sort of weakness in the ridge near Florida in a few days between a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.
This weakness in the ridge of high pressure may allow a west-northwest or northwest turn of the hurricane. The models that are showing the northernmost tracks, like the GFS model and NOGAPS model, are the models that are weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north faster. The models with the southernmost tracks, like the European model and GFDL model, show a stronger ridge of high pressure.
The consensus models indicate a solution somewhere in the middle of the two extremes and it tracks Ike through the central and southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and Monday and then through the Florida Keys on Tuesday. This solution seems very reasonable and I'm leaning towards the consensus models.

A few thoughts here that I want to pass onto you: None of the model guidance are forecasting Ike to recurve and miss the United States. It is looking more and more likely that Ike will have three landfalls: One in the southeast Bahamas, one in either the Florida Keys and south Florida or in northern Cuba, and one somewhere on the Gulf Coast. The trough of low pressure originally expected to turn Ike to the north is turning out to be weaker and slower moving than what was being forecast originally. All of the scenarios being depicted by the latest model runs look bad for the Florida Keys. The latest indications are that tropical storm force winds will begin affecting the Florida Keys as early as Monday night.

As for potential Gulf Coast impacts, there are a few scenarios:

The first is a turn to the north after Ike tracks through the Florida Keys. This type of track would impact the west coast of Florida.
The second would be that Ike does not turn to the north as quick and the hurricane would enter the Gulf of Mexico and then turn to the north late next week and impact somewhere the Gulf Coast somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and Texas.

It should be noted that it is way, way too early to be sure where on the Gulf Coast Ike could make landfall.

The Florida Keys are highly vulnerable to hurricanes, and are at great risk from Ike. There is only one road connecting the Keys to the mainland and it requires 48 to 72 hours to evacuate the Florida Keys.

It is my understanding that there will be a mandatory evacuation for all visitors starting Saturday morning. The Monroe County Office of Emergency Management says visitors must leave starting at 9 a.m. Saturday. A phased evacuation for residents will start Sunday morning. Key West and the lower Keys will be evacuated first. The middle and northern Keys will follow later in the day.

It cannot be said enough that Ike poses a significant threat to the Florida Keys and south Florida.

All interests in the Bahamas and in Florida, especially south Florida and the Florida Keys should pay very close attention to the progress of Ike and start thinking about what actions you will take when Hurricane Watches and Warnings are posted. A Hurricane Watch is already posted for the Turks and Caicos Islands and also the Southeastern Bahamas.

The next scheduled tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT Saturday morning.

Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services

 

[Hfcomms]

People don't like to evacuate and my main concern is that because Gusty wasn't as bad as feared that many will either choose to not evacuate at all this time or they simply don't have the funds to do it. A lot of folks won't leave twice. I do feel for the emergency management people. Kind of damned if you do and damned if you don't. If you don't call it early enough you can't get everyone out and then if the storm isn't too bad or misses you then people are upset and think your crying wolf. Although I if lived down there I think I would take every storm very seriously. Especially with the rapid intensification we've experienced with these things in the last few years. I guess I'd rather be safe than sorry.

 

[ejagno]

HFComms; We do take every single storm serious. Granted we may stay for a CAT 1 and maybe a CAT 2 but anything even resembling a potential CAT 3 or higher and we're nothing but a memory around here.

I just got back from evacuating and given the new runs tonight with the models I just may be making hotel reservations in the morning since they have Ike projected to visit our area again. At this juncture models are generally very unreliable but when you see a significant model consensus on one area like we did with Gus then it's a pretty sure bet that they aren't all wrong so it's best to be prepared. I will not take chances with my family's lives.

Yes, it's very costly to evacuate and stay hold up in hotels for days at a time but funeral expenses are much costlier.

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 061153
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...335
KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...22.0 N...67.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

 

[garnetgirl]

The minute that Ivan was named, I knew it was coming to Pensacola. Since Ike was named, I've had a very uneasy feeling that the "I's have it" and once again NW FL is going to get slammed with a really BIG, STRONG hurricane. Seeing the tracks tonight, my stomach is lurching!

I am out of town, but will be home tomorrow, Lord willing. I have a very sick dog that I fear will not survive until I get home, much less the stress of an evacuation.

This will be 4 hurricanes to strike the US in a very short time period. And Ike could be the worst of all. I'm praying for all of those in the path of Hanna and of Ike.

I HATE hurricane season!!!

MARANATHA

Yikes! Please don't even say that! Ivan was the one that made it all the way up here to the mountains of Western North Carolina, causing tremendous mudslides and loss of life in my town and county. I was without power for four days following that storm.

That said, praying for everyone in the paths of these storms.

garnetgirl

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060904
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECORDED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 104 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND AN SFMR PEAK
WIND OF 96 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT METEOROLOGIST ALSO INDICATED THAT IKE HAS A CLOSED 24 NM
DIAMETER EYE. A DROPSONDE WITHIN THE EYE MEASURED 983 MB BUT THAT
WAS WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 16 KT. AS A COMPROMISE...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 982 MB. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY SHEAR
SEEMS TO BE PERSISTING OVER THE CYCLONE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AFFECTING THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AS MUCH AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY.
INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
BEFORE IKE MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT NOW
DEPICTS SOME WEAKENING AS IKE TRAVERSES THE CUBAN COAST. OF
COURSE...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WILL
EITHER ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WATER OR A LONGER PERIOD OF
WEAKENING OVER LAND. LATER ON...CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/14...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW
OF A STRONG RIDGE DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE IKE TO MOVE
IN A MORE WESTWARD FASHION. AFTERWARD...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF/STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WILL ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE IKE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. IN FACT...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS
ACTUALLY BRING THE CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS. WITHOUT
QUESTION...THE PARTICULAR TRACK THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE
SUGGESTING COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON IKE'S INTENSITY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
IS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE WESTWARD-SHIFTING MODEL TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 22.4N 67.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 22.1N 69.0W 100 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 21.8N 71.6W 100 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 21.6N 74.1W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 21.8N 76.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 80.5W 90 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
96HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 85.5W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

 

[Jarhead]

Add. tracking and models...

 

[Jarhead]

Image Updated: 11:59 AM GMT on September 06, 2008

 

[Jarhead]

Add. Models...

.

 

[Jarhead]

Latest Sat. Images

 

[Seabird]

Issued at: 7:53 AM AST 9/6/08 (gateway).


Ike continues west-southwestward,

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the northern coast of the dominican republic from cabo frances viejo westward to the northern border with haiti.

A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the northern peninsula of haiti from the northern border with the dominican republic to gonaives.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the turks and caicos islands and the southeastern bahamas. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the central bahamas. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.

A hurricane watch may be required for portions of eastern cuba later today.

All interests in the remainder of the bahamas, cuba, south florida, and the Florida keys should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 am ast, 1200z, the center of hurricane ike was located near latitude 22.0 north, longitude 67.9 west or about 210 miles, 335 km, east of grand turk island.

Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 16 mph, 26 km/hr. A continued west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west on Sunday. On this track, ike is expected to pass near or over the turks and caicos islands and the southeastern bahamas later today or early sunday, and near the central bahamas and the northern coast of eastern cuba on Sunday night and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph, 185 km/hr, with higher gusts. Ike is a category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 48 hours, but ike is expected to be a major hurricane during this period.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, 75 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles, 205 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb, 28.41 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected in the warning area near and to the north to the of the center of ike.

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is expected over the turks and caicos islands and southeastern bahamas.

Repeating the 800 am ast position, 22.0 n, 67.9 w. Movement toward, west-southwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 115 mph. Minimum central pressure, 962 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 1100 am ast.

 

[Jarhead]

Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Saturday, September 6, 2008 710 am EDT

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hurricane Ike:

Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Ike early this morning continue to find a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane. They also indicated that Ike has a closed 24 mile diameter eye and a central pressure of 982 millibars. Although northerly shear continues to affect the hurricane, it does not appear to be affecting the inner core convection as much as it was previously.

All of the intensity guidance continue to indicate that the shear will decrease by late tonight or tomorrow morning, which should allow for some strengthening before Ike moves near or over the northern coast of Cuba on Monday and Monday night.

After tracking near or over northern Cuba, conditions appear rather conducive for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and Ike has the potential to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday. Of course, any slight deviation north or south of its current forecast track will either allow for strengthening over water or a longer period of weakening over land.

So, at this point, it appears Ike will strengthen to potentially Category 4 strength before tracking near or over northern Cuba. This interaction with northern Cuba should knock the hurricane down to upper Category 1 strength. Once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday, Ike is currently forecast to intensify once more to Category 3 strength by Thursday.

Ike is tracking west-southwest at a forward speed of 16 mph within the deep layer flow of a strong ridge of high pressure digging southwestward over the Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The global models are forecasting that the ridge of high pressure will shift to a more zonal pattern during the next 24 to 36 hours which will cause Ike to move in a more westward fashion. Afterward, model guidance indicates that the southwest extension of the ridge of high pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida will erode just enough to induce a gradual turn toward the northwest by Tuesday and Wednesday. This is a lot of uncertainty in the models as to how close Ike will approach the northern coast of Cuba. In fact, the two hurricane models, the GFDL and HWRF models, actually bring the hurricane over the island in 36 hours. Without question, the particular track that the GFDL and HWRF models are suggesting could have a significant impact on Ike's intensity.

There are two scenarios that may occur with Ike, and each are equally likely to happen:

Scenario 1 is that Ike turns to the west and misses the north coast of Cuba and tracks either through the Florida Straits or the lower Florida Keys as a upper end Category 3 to a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday. After that, the extension of the ridge would erode allowing for a northwestward and then northerly track to potentially impact the west coast of Florida or the Florida Panhandle late next week.

Scenario 2 is that Ike tracks further south like the model guidance is trending towards and Ike tracks across northern Cuba or perhaps even over the entire length of the island. This track would knock the hurricane down from Category 3 or 4 strength to at most a Category 1 hurricane. After that, Ike would turn more northwestward and track through the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen slowly as its inner core could be severely disrupted by the island of Cuba. With Scenario 2, a landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the Texas coast would be more possible late next week as a Category 2 or perhaps a Category 3 hurricane.

I am going to go out on a limb here, and state that I am personally leaning more towards Scenario 1. The reason for this is because the operational GFS model's depiction of the 500 mb height has not been deep enough with the trough of low pressure in the Midwest and also the heights at 500 millibars over the southwest Atlantic have been higher than what the GFS model has been depicting.

So, it is conceivable that the building ridge of high pressure may allow Ike to initially move slightly farther south than progged as it approaches the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas. Later on, the timing of the first shortwave trough, combined with a deeper Ike, could briefly cause a northward component to the track, allowing Ike to just miss Cuba and track through the Florida Straits or the southern Florida Keys as potentially a very strong hurricane.

The latest indications are that tropical storm force winds will begin affecting the Florida Keys as early as Monday night.

It should be noted that it is way, way too early to be sure where on the Gulf Coast Ike could make landfall. That landfall possibility highly depends on the track of Ike over the next 2 to 3 days. If Ike tracks through the Florida Straits or the Florida Keys, then a landfall near the Florida Panhandle or the west coast of Florida would be more likely. However, if Ike tracks across Cuba, then a landfall further west in the Gulf of Mexico, from Louisiana to the Texas coast would be more likely.

The Florida Keys are highly vulnerable to hurricanes, and are at great risk from Ike. There is only one road connecting the Keys to the mainland and it requires 48 to 72 hours to evacuate the Florida Keys.

There will be a mandatory evacuation for all visitors starting this morning. The Monroe County Office of Emergency Management says visitors must leave starting at 9 a.m. this morning. A phased evacuation for residents will start Sunday morning. Key West and the lower Keys will be evacuated first. The middle and northern Keys will follow later in the day.

All interests in the Bahamas, in south Florida and in the Florida Keys should continue to pay very close attention to the progress of Ike and start thinking about what actions you will take when Hurricane Watches and Warnings are posted for your location.

The next scheduled tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT Sunday morning. I may try to issue an update regarding the latest information about Hurricane Ike sometime this evening.

Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services

 

[Desperado]

Just thought I would pass this link along.
Very Nice Interactive Tracking map...
http://www.operationstormwatch.com/main.html

 

[Jarhead]

Just thought I would pass this link along.
Very Nice Interactive Tracking map...
http://www.operationstormwatch.com/main.html

Thanks, Desperado. Neat site...

Jarhead

 

[fairbanksb]

Just thought I would pass this link along.
Very Nice Interactive Tracking map...
http://www.operationstormwatch.com/main.html

I like the site I just don't like what it is depicting.

 

[Traveler]

Best link I ever seen. Bookmarked it. Thanks Desparato it a gem

 

[Chartreuse]

People don't like to evacuate and my main concern is that because Gusty wasn't as bad as feared that many will either choose to not evacuate at all this time or they simply don't have the funds to do it. A lot of folks won't leave twice. I do feel for the emergency management people. Kind of damned if you do and damned if you don't. If you don't call it early enough you can't get everyone out and then if the storm isn't too bad or misses you then people are upset and think your crying wolf. Although I if lived down there I think I would take every storm very seriously. Especially with the rapid intensification we've experienced with these things in the last few years. I guess I'd rather be safe than sorry.

I've been worried about this as well. Especially since they weren't allowed back right after Gustav - it's a harder decision to make if you know that even if the worst DOESN'T happen, you might be kept out of your home for days after the storm.

My totally unscientific guess is that you'll see at least twice as many people choose to stay behind this time, and a large number of people waiting until the last possible to decide if they're staying or going.

 

[penumbra]

00
WTNT34 KNHC 061445
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GRANMA...CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
240 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IKE
IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.9 N...68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

 

[penumbra]

00
WTNT44 KNHC 061446
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

IKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER
TODAY...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS
UPWELLED BY HANNA. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.
IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR
TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING. THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND. BY
DAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY
WARM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT
96 AND 120 HR. GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND
INTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE.

IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN
WESTWARD. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH
OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL
TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF
THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 21.9N 68.8W 95 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 21.4N 70.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 72.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 21.2N 75.4W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 77.6W 95 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 84.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

 

[Barry Natchitoches]

How about evacuation of the big easy again part duex?? That won't go over very well. Many can't or won't go again. I hope I'm wrong on this and it will take a few more days for the model concensus to really jell but this one could go real bad for the gulf coast. But hey, what do I know?? I thought that Gustav was really going to hold together better than it did too.

I worked with alot of these folks.


I understand some shelters -- such as the one that ejagno was at (which had alot of Louisiana folks working it) were alot better than the FEMA/Red Cross shelter operations that I was assigned to work here in Memphis.


But here in Memphis, we had large numbers of people crammed into a small space, and almost NOTHING at all for these folks to do all day. Sure, some of them did volunteer to help with the shelter work, but we were not set up to allow them to do more than menial things like cleaning up. For the most part, cramped living quarters, lousy food, idleness, and frustration/anger were all the residents had for an entire week. They were so glad to get on that train yesterday and head home, and lots of them said they would never evack again. I even read in a newspaper account (the Times Picayune online, I think) that one evacuee -- who went to a shelter in Louisiana, not Memphis -- told reporters it was like being in jail.


This is what I was afraid of when I posted that thread on the main board about a week ago, asking what if folks went through all this trouble to evack New Orleans folks and then Gustav turned out to be like almost every hurricane that looked like it was headed towards New Orleans in my lifetime: it ended up being a No Show, or Near No Show.


I anticipate that many will NOT leave for Ike. And I anticipate that fewer will volunteer to work with Ike evacuees -- especially those from New Orleans -- than were willing to work with the Gustav group.


This is NOT a good situation, folks.


I pray this thing will NOT head in the direction of New Orleans.

 

[penumbra]

 

[ejagno]

Barry, I was NOT in a shelter for Gustav.
We opened and ran a shelter for Katrina evacuees in 2005.
For Rita I stayed with some friends between Baton Rouge and New Orleans.
For Gustav, I was in Springdale, Arkansas at a hotel.
Thankfully I've never ever had to be a shelter resident due to our prepardness efforts.

We are all keeping an eye on Ike. We still have quite a few New Orleans residents here due to sewage back-up in their areas. They do not want to bring their children and families home until that is resolved and I don't blame them.

 

[PilotFighter]

Looks like Ike has a good bead on us in the latest computer models. West Blockton here I come. Already getting my fishing poles ready for the pond up there.

 

[ejagno]

Pilot; Good fresh fish to replenish your freezers will be nice when you return. LOL

Looks like the models are still trending west as I type. Ike has slowed down some which always makes coastal residents nervous.

Ike is now back up to a CAT 4. We need to pray that he gets hung up in the cuban mountainous regions that will weaken him severely before he re-emerges into the Gulf or Carribean. If not, combined with the prime GOM waters then we will have major problems on our hands not only to our home and properties but nationwide if oil production is knocked out on some of those platforms.

Prepping for the worst and praying for the best for everyone.

 

[SassyinAZ]

HFComms; We do take every single storm serious. Granted we may stay for a CAT 1 and maybe a CAT 2 but anything even resembling a potential CAT 3 or higher and we're nothing but a memory around here.

I just got back from evacuating and given the new runs tonight with the models I just may be making hotel reservations in the morning since they have Ike projected to visit our area again. At this juncture models are generally very unreliable but when you see a significant model consensus on one area like we did with Gus then it's a pretty sure bet that they aren't all wrong so it's best to be prepared. I will not take chances with my family's lives.

Yes, it's very costly to evacuate and stay hold up in hotels for days at a time but funeral expenses are much costlier.

What a refreshing, intelligent and realistic attitude

Despite all the postings to the contrary above, if one CHOOSES to live in hurricane ally and refuses to evacuate because they've hurricane fatigue and the shelters are shelters (gasp, not hotels, not gourmet restaurants and not a movie theater) and they've not made their own personal preparations for the season, then they should move.

 

[ejagno]

THE BIG DOGS ARE STEPPING IN NOW

Ike: No Electricity May Complicate New Evacuations
by CNN
Published: September 06 2008 - 1:24 am Last Updated: September 06 2008 - 4:17 am

The federal government is "working with great urgency" to restore one-third of the households in Louisiana that still have no power days after after Hurricane Gustav, the chief of Homeland Security said Friday.

With Hurricane Ike possibly heading toward the Gulf Coast, the lack of electricity could greatly complicate possible evacuations.

"One of the concerns we had ... was making sure we got enough power up, particularly in the gas stations, so that if people did need to leave again, they could gas their car up and they could go," Chertoff said Friday.

Power has been restored to some gasoline stations in Louisiana, and Chertoff said fuel trucks capable of pumping gas directly into cars may be an alternative for other drivers.

Electricity is "the Achilles heel of recovery," he said. If power is restored, problems of food distribution, medical care, and water and sewer service can be addressed, allowing people to return to their houses.

"If you don't have that electricity, everything stalls, and then the government ends up having to feed people meals-ready-to-eat and bottles of water," Chertoff added.

The Homeland Security secretary said that more redundancy is needed in the power system so that when a key piece of equipment is damaged or destroyed, there is something to fall back on. That is often not the "We live in a world in which the business model is 'Just in time.' ... Do just enough in order to provide the service, but don't do anything extra, because it is considered wasteful."

Though acknowledging that he is not an engineer, Chertoff suggested that utility companies place crucial assets in less vulnerable locations and put some below ground.
WKRG.com © 2007 Media General Inc.

 

[summerthyme]

My totally unscientific guess is that you'll see at least twice as many people choose to stay behind this time, and a large number of people waiting until the last possible to decide if they're staying or going.

Unfortunately, this is probably true. And sooner or later (if not this year, then next... or the one after that) large numbers of people are going to DIE because of these choices.

I completely agree with Sassy:

Despite all the postings to the contrary above, if one CHOOSES to live in hurricane ally and refuses to evacuate because they've hurricane fatigue and the shelters are shelters (gasp, not hotels, not gourmet restaurants and not a movie theater) and they've not made their own personal preparations for the season, then they should move.

The unpopular truth is, "beachfront property" *used to be* the province of the rich (mostly) for a very good reason... it's a damned expensive place to live, because of the potential losses when storms hit. (the other end of the economic spectrum also managed *before welfare*, because 1. they had little to lose. And 2. they were used to scraping by, making do, and handling life's problems (which they saw frequently) themselves.

If New Orleans sees one more direct hit with the level of damage Katrina caused (and I see no reason to think that won't happen at some point), insurance will no longer be available for any property owners there, for love or money. At that point, the only ones who will be able to afford to stay will be those who can "self insure".

Hard times all around.

Summerthyme

 

[Barry Natchitoches]

Barry, I was NOT in a shelter for Gustav.
We opened and ran a shelter for Katrina evacuees in 2005.
For Rita I stayed with some friends between Baton Rouge and New Orleans.
For Gustav, I was in Springdale, Arkansas at a hotel.
Thankfully I've never ever had to be a shelter resident due to our prepardness efforts.

We are all keeping an eye on Ike. We still have quite a few New Orleans residents here due to sewage back-up in their areas. They do not want to bring their children and families home until that is resolved and I don't blame them.

My mistake, ejagno.


Thank you for correcting me.

 

[nharrold]

I've been worried about this as well. Especially since they weren't allowed back right after Gustav - it's a harder decision to make if you know that even if the worst DOESN'T happen, you might be kept out of your home for days after the storm.

My totally unscientific guess is that you'll see at least twice as many people choose to stay behind this time, and a large number of people waiting until the last possible to decide if they're staying or going.

I suspect that your guess is pretty accurate. I think I'd be one of those you've described. I really feel for those people with marginal incomes who just do not have the money to make a long trip, then pay for motels and meals for a week or more, especially if they have children. I couldn't do that, myself. Not to mention the problem of caring for critters...