FlyLadyFan
Inactive
Wonder if Ike will cross over the peninsula and carry on in the Gulf.
Thanks again, Jarhead.
FLF
.
Thanks again, Jarhead.
FLF
.
- Status
CelticRose
Membership Revoked
I second that, Desperado!!
We're on the other side of the state but .... if Ike comes ashore straight on in the general area that some sites re projecting..... Not sure I'd want to be here as he passed through our area .......
Or worst case sceanrio is Ike managing to weave himself between the the tip of FL and Cuba and winding up in the GOM ...... And then heading north / northeast ............
Yup ..... Need to really follow this storm ..... And depending on how things look Sunday night / Monday morning ..... Might just decide to pack things up and have things set just in case we decide to take a 'cane holiday
Barry Natchitoches
Has No Life - Lives on TB
HUSH, FLF!
Don't even THINK to suggest another gulf storm!
I hate to say this, but the latest model runs do bring it into the GOM and guess where Barry? A friend of mine just sent his elderly parents back yesterday. We'll just have to pray the models are off and that it recurves.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 050854
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...MAJOR HURRICANE IKE HEADED WESTWARD...
INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740
KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A SLIGHT TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT IKE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...23.7 N...61.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT34 KNHC 050854
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...MAJOR HURRICANE IKE HEADED WESTWARD...
INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740
KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A SLIGHT TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT IKE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...23.7 N...61.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT44 KNHC 050857
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS
OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT
DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE
REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN
FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS
3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA.
MEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH
THE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER
JOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96
HOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND
IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES. THE ONLY
REASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE-DAY POINT IS
OVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY NORTH OF IKE...AS THE
HIGH-LATITUDE TROUGH DEPARTS ATLANTIC CANADA...AND THE HURRICANE IS
NOW HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR 270/13. NEXT TO DEPART THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SCENE WILL BE HANNA...AND ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SAY THAT IN
ITS PLACE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. A KEY UNKNOWN FOR THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IS HOW
STRONG THAT RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN INTACT. IN
GENERAL DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN TRACKS
MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION LONGER AND DELAYING ANY
POTENTIAL TURN TO THE NORTH. THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ON
THIS CYCLE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS ONLY SHIFTED WEST SLIGHTLY AT
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...IS JUST NUDGED TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME...AND GIVES THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS
AND HWRF. IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 23.7N 61.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 63.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 23.3N 65.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 22.8N 68.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 70.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 24.0N 78.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 26.0N 81.0W 95 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT44 KNHC 050857
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS
OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT
DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE
REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN
FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS
3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA.
MEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH
THE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER
JOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96
HOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND
IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES. THE ONLY
REASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE-DAY POINT IS
OVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY NORTH OF IKE...AS THE
HIGH-LATITUDE TROUGH DEPARTS ATLANTIC CANADA...AND THE HURRICANE IS
NOW HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR 270/13. NEXT TO DEPART THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SCENE WILL BE HANNA...AND ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SAY THAT IN
ITS PLACE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. A KEY UNKNOWN FOR THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IS HOW
STRONG THAT RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN INTACT. IN
GENERAL DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN TRACKS
MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION LONGER AND DELAYING ANY
POTENTIAL TURN TO THE NORTH. THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ON
THIS CYCLE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS ONLY SHIFTED WEST SLIGHTLY AT
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...IS JUST NUDGED TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME...AND GIVES THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS
AND HWRF. IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 23.7N 61.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 63.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 23.3N 65.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 22.8N 68.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 70.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 24.0N 78.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 26.0N 81.0W 95 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Attachments
garnetgirl
Veteran Member
Folks, looking at tropical storm Hannah's track up the east coast, I am wondering how this will affect southern Florida's evacuation possibilities if needed from Ike?
This is starting to look like a really bad situation.
garnetgirl
This is starting to look like a really bad situation.
garnetgirl
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Hanna is forecast to move NE fairly rapidity after landfall, straight up the East Coast.
I don't think she should cause a significant problem, but.....
Jarhead
T/S Hanna Forecast track....
Attachments
Looks like Ike wants to visit Miami Beach!
I have a feeling this will be the bad one this season...although the forecasters have not had a good record on forecasting intensities this season and seem to be playing overly conservative.
Just wingin' it for fun I'd say Ike makes a south Miami landfall at a strong cat 1 only.
I have a feeling this will be the bad one this season...although the forecasters have not had a good record on forecasting intensities this season and seem to be playing overly conservative.
Just wingin' it for fun I'd say Ike makes a south Miami landfall at a strong cat 1 only.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, September 5, 2008 610 am EDT
Hurricane Ike:
I want to say up front that I am very concerned about the future track and intensity of Ike and the potential impacts on the United States coastline, especially south Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas.
Recent satellite images early this morning indicate that the eye of Ike has lost a little of its definition and the cloud tops of the eyewall have warmed somewhat. Maximum sustained winds early this morning are near 125 mph. Due to forecast shear over the next 24 to 36 hours, some weakening of Ike is anticipated and the hurricane will likely drop down to Category 2 strength by tomorrow.
The global models then forecast that the shear will lessen after tomorrow and Ike will still be over sea surface temperatures near 84 degrees Fahrenheit.
Therefore, restrengthening is anticipated from Sunday through Tuesday and Ike may strengthen back up to Category 4 strength.
The HWRF model forecasts Ike to be a major hurricane early next week, but the GFDL model does not because its forecast track goes over Cuba. Meanwhile, the SHIPS and LGEM models forecast a weaker hurricane, although the LGEM prediction appears more realistic since it does a better job of taking into account the eventual lessening of the shear. It should be noted that the LGEM model forecasts Ike to be a 125 mph hurricane on Tuesday morning. Therefore, it seems very possible that Ike will be a major hurricane of Category 3 or Category 4 strength early next week.
A ridge of high pressure has settled in directly north of Ike, as a trough of low pressure departs Atlantic Canada. Ike is tracking due west at a forward speed of 15 mph. Hanna is forecast to depart the western Atlantic and it curves north and then northeast over this weekend and all of the global models are forecasting that a ridge of high pressure will build in and extend southwestward to Florida by late this weekend and early next week.
A key unknown for the forecast track of Ike early next week is how strong that ridge of high pressure will be and how long it will remain intact. In general during the last day or two the models have been trending toward the ridge staying in place longer, resulting in tracks maintaining the generally westward motion longer and delaying any potential turn to the north.
That trend has continued somewhat early this morning, but the consensus model guidance has only shifted west slightly on Tuesday into Wednesday. The overall model trend and its related upper air weather pattern seems to indicate that Ike poses a significant threat to the Bahamas on Sunday and Monday. After that, it currently appears that the next trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to reach Ike and pull it to the north, so that Ike will remain on a general westward track. Even if a northward motion occurs, high pressure would eventually build in and drive Ike into some part of Florida.
On the other hand, if Ike remains south of the model consensus guidance, it may track through the Florida Straits. Therefore, Ike currently poses a significant threat to the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys. In particular, south Florida is of greatest significant risk from Ike.
All interests in the Bahamas and in Florida, especially south Florida and the Florida Keys should pay very close attention to the progress of Ike and start thinking about what actions you will take if Hurricane Watches and Warnings are posted late this weekend into next week.
The next scheduled tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT Saturday morning. I may try to post an update to this discussion sometime this evening, probably after 8 pm EDT.
Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, September 5, 2008 610 am EDT
Hurricane Ike:
I want to say up front that I am very concerned about the future track and intensity of Ike and the potential impacts on the United States coastline, especially south Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas.
Recent satellite images early this morning indicate that the eye of Ike has lost a little of its definition and the cloud tops of the eyewall have warmed somewhat. Maximum sustained winds early this morning are near 125 mph. Due to forecast shear over the next 24 to 36 hours, some weakening of Ike is anticipated and the hurricane will likely drop down to Category 2 strength by tomorrow.
The global models then forecast that the shear will lessen after tomorrow and Ike will still be over sea surface temperatures near 84 degrees Fahrenheit.
Therefore, restrengthening is anticipated from Sunday through Tuesday and Ike may strengthen back up to Category 4 strength.
The HWRF model forecasts Ike to be a major hurricane early next week, but the GFDL model does not because its forecast track goes over Cuba. Meanwhile, the SHIPS and LGEM models forecast a weaker hurricane, although the LGEM prediction appears more realistic since it does a better job of taking into account the eventual lessening of the shear. It should be noted that the LGEM model forecasts Ike to be a 125 mph hurricane on Tuesday morning. Therefore, it seems very possible that Ike will be a major hurricane of Category 3 or Category 4 strength early next week.
A ridge of high pressure has settled in directly north of Ike, as a trough of low pressure departs Atlantic Canada. Ike is tracking due west at a forward speed of 15 mph. Hanna is forecast to depart the western Atlantic and it curves north and then northeast over this weekend and all of the global models are forecasting that a ridge of high pressure will build in and extend southwestward to Florida by late this weekend and early next week.
A key unknown for the forecast track of Ike early next week is how strong that ridge of high pressure will be and how long it will remain intact. In general during the last day or two the models have been trending toward the ridge staying in place longer, resulting in tracks maintaining the generally westward motion longer and delaying any potential turn to the north.
That trend has continued somewhat early this morning, but the consensus model guidance has only shifted west slightly on Tuesday into Wednesday. The overall model trend and its related upper air weather pattern seems to indicate that Ike poses a significant threat to the Bahamas on Sunday and Monday. After that, it currently appears that the next trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to reach Ike and pull it to the north, so that Ike will remain on a general westward track. Even if a northward motion occurs, high pressure would eventually build in and drive Ike into some part of Florida.
On the other hand, if Ike remains south of the model consensus guidance, it may track through the Florida Straits. Therefore, Ike currently poses a significant threat to the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys. In particular, south Florida is of greatest significant risk from Ike.
All interests in the Bahamas and in Florida, especially south Florida and the Florida Keys should pay very close attention to the progress of Ike and start thinking about what actions you will take if Hurricane Watches and Warnings are posted late this weekend into next week.
The next scheduled tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT Saturday morning. I may try to post an update to this discussion sometime this evening, probably after 8 pm EDT.
Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
There are flights planned today to look at Ike and perhaps get a better feel for where it might go.
Check the following for active tropical storms, including the latest on Ike and Hanna:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=59&sid=0311e156c93792622468c7792f46cc63
Check the following for active tropical storms, including the latest on Ike and Hanna:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=59&sid=0311e156c93792622468c7792f46cc63
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 DEPART AT 05/0800A FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0109A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A IKE
C. 05/1530Z
D. 24.0N 62.6W
E. 05/1700Z TO 05/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGT THREE -- NOAA 42 DEPART AT 05/2000Z FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0309A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT
FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0409A IKE
C. 06/0400Z
D. 23.4N 64.9W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 43 DEPART AT 06/0900Z FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0509A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE ON HANNA.
BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE IKE AT 06/1800Z. A G-IV
MISSION FOR 07/0000Z. NOAA WP-3'S CONTINUE RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO IKE EVERY 12 HRS.
4. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION WITH 04/1730Z T.O.CANCELED.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I think, well at least I hope that was a joke Jar. Can't get much more "real time" than this...
Keep up the great job!
Let us know if you need some relief. We'll get somebody like Kickapoo in here to sub for a while...
Where is Kick anyway???
Thanks, Sysman. I have a Dr.'s appt. this morning, so if someone could cover the 11 AM update, it's appreciated.
Thanks again,
Jarhead
penumbra
centrist member
000
WTNT34 KNHC 051442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...IKE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...
INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...
685 KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 550 MILES...885 KM
...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...
IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT IKE
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTNT34 KNHC 051442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...IKE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...
INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...
685 KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 550 MILES...885 KM
...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...
IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT IKE
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
penumbra
centrist member
000
WTNT44 KNHC 051444
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO A TAKE A TOLL ON IKE. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR AND THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...A RECENT
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE NORTH
SIDE. USING A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT...AND
THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. ALMOST
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECREASING SHEAR OVER IKE IN ABOUT A
DAY DUE TO A WEAKENING OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER WINDS. EXCEPT
FOR A SMALL PATCH OF SSTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WATERS ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE DUE TO
THE SHEAR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS
UPPER-WINDS SLACKEN...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. IN
A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE LONGER-RANGE AS THE HWRF AND
GFDL SHOW A MORE INTENSE HURRICANE. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW
STRONG IT IS...ALL SIGNS ARE THAT IKE WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
FOR DAYS TO COME.
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABOUT
260/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE WEDGING INTO
BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...STEERING THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN
THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION COULD MATERIALIZE. GENERALLY THE MODELS
THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS...SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY
SEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
WELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED
SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IT CANNOT BE REPEATED ENOUGH THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 23.2N 62.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 22.9N 64.7W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.4W 90 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 22.2N 69.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 22.2N 72.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 82.0W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTNT44 KNHC 051444
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO A TAKE A TOLL ON IKE. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR AND THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...A RECENT
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE NORTH
SIDE. USING A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT...AND
THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. ALMOST
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECREASING SHEAR OVER IKE IN ABOUT A
DAY DUE TO A WEAKENING OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER WINDS. EXCEPT
FOR A SMALL PATCH OF SSTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WATERS ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE DUE TO
THE SHEAR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS
UPPER-WINDS SLACKEN...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. IN
A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE LONGER-RANGE AS THE HWRF AND
GFDL SHOW A MORE INTENSE HURRICANE. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW
STRONG IT IS...ALL SIGNS ARE THAT IKE WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
FOR DAYS TO COME.
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABOUT
260/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE WEDGING INTO
BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...STEERING THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN
THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION COULD MATERIALIZE. GENERALLY THE MODELS
THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS...SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY
SEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
WELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED
SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IT CANNOT BE REPEATED ENOUGH THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 23.2N 62.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 22.9N 64.7W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.4W 90 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 22.2N 69.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 22.2N 72.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 82.0W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Reborn
Seeking Aslan's Country
11 am
000
WTNT34 KNHC 051442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...IKE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...
INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 550 MILES...885 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
$$
FORCASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT34 KNHC 051442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...IKE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...
INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 550 MILES...885 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
$$
FORCASTER BLAKE
penumbra
centrist member
000
WTNT64 KNHC 051748
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FROM THE 1100 AM ADVISORY.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
WTNT64 KNHC 051748
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FROM THE 1100 AM ADVISORY.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
Issued at: 7:59 PM AST 9/5/08 (gateway).
The eye of ike reappears, still heading toward the bahamas,
A hurricane watch remains in effect for the turks and caicos islands and the southeastern bahamas. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.
All interests in the rest of the bahamas, cuba, south Florida, and the Florida keys should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 800 pm ast, 0000z, the eye of hurricane ike was located near latitude 22.8 north, longitude 64.7 west or about 315 miles, 510 km, north-northeast of san juan Puerto Rico and about 420 miles, 675 km, east of grand turk island.
Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph, 24 km/hr. A motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected tonight and tomorrow, with a general motion to the west expected by Sunday. On this track, ike is expected to pass near or over the turks and caicos islands and the southeastern bahamas late Saturday or early sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph, 185 km/hr, with higher gusts. Ike is a category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are forecast during the next 24 hours, but ike is expected to be a major hurricane as it nears the bahamas.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, 75 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles, 195 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb, 28.29 inches.
Repeating the 800 pm ast position, 22.8 n, 64.7 w. Movement toward, west-southwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 115 mph. Minimum central pressure, 958 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 1100 pm ast.
The eye of ike reappears, still heading toward the bahamas,
A hurricane watch remains in effect for the turks and caicos islands and the southeastern bahamas. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.
All interests in the rest of the bahamas, cuba, south Florida, and the Florida keys should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 800 pm ast, 0000z, the eye of hurricane ike was located near latitude 22.8 north, longitude 64.7 west or about 315 miles, 510 km, north-northeast of san juan Puerto Rico and about 420 miles, 675 km, east of grand turk island.
Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph, 24 km/hr. A motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected tonight and tomorrow, with a general motion to the west expected by Sunday. On this track, ike is expected to pass near or over the turks and caicos islands and the southeastern bahamas late Saturday or early sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph, 185 km/hr, with higher gusts. Ike is a category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are forecast during the next 24 hours, but ike is expected to be a major hurricane as it nears the bahamas.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, 75 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles, 195 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb, 28.29 inches.
Repeating the 800 pm ast position, 22.8 n, 64.7 w. Movement toward, west-southwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 115 mph. Minimum central pressure, 958 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 1100 pm ast.
PilotFighter
Bomb & Bullet Technician
Told ya I jinxed us all here on the Gulf by getting that new metal roof put on. It's all my fault. This one I'm worried about. This one told me he is coming to Bama. LOL
Looks like I'll be running up to West Blockton after all. At least I can fish for a day or two up there before it starts raining.
Looks like I'll be running up to West Blockton after all. At least I can fish for a day or two up there before it starts raining.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Fl. Keys.... Mandatory evac.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:25 PM EDT on September 05, 2008
Just a quick update on the expected track for Hurricane Ike--the latest 18Z (2 pm EDT) computer model runs have completed. The newest tracks of the GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET are all about 50 miles further south than before, bringing Ike over eastern Cuba, then along Cuba or just south of Cuba before popping out into the Gulf of Mexico. The other two models, the GFS and NOGAPS, did not change their forecasts appreciably, and forecast a track through the Keys without hitting Cuba.
These new model runs imply a slight lessening of the risk of Ike hitting South Florida, Southwest Florida, and the central and western Bahamas. However, the risk to the Keys is still unacceptably high, and a mandatory evacuation order has been given.
I urge all Keys residents to comply with the evacuation orders. Ike is capable of causing a 14-foot storm surge in the Keys, as Hurricane Donna did in 1960. This is a storm you must evacuate for.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:25 PM EDT on September 05, 2008
Just a quick update on the expected track for Hurricane Ike--the latest 18Z (2 pm EDT) computer model runs have completed. The newest tracks of the GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET are all about 50 miles further south than before, bringing Ike over eastern Cuba, then along Cuba or just south of Cuba before popping out into the Gulf of Mexico. The other two models, the GFS and NOGAPS, did not change their forecasts appreciably, and forecast a track through the Keys without hitting Cuba.
These new model runs imply a slight lessening of the risk of Ike hitting South Florida, Southwest Florida, and the central and western Bahamas. However, the risk to the Keys is still unacceptably high, and a mandatory evacuation order has been given.
I urge all Keys residents to comply with the evacuation orders. Ike is capable of causing a 14-foot storm surge in the Keys, as Hurricane Donna did in 1960. This is a storm you must evacuate for.
CelticRose
Membership Revoked
Ike appears to be shaping up to be a serious 'cane .... I so hope thatf it does continue on its current path, it doesn't head toward LA.
No one neds a 'cane and I know I don't want it to veer in towards the Tampa Bay area, but ......... LA has already had one this season and that whole area (LA, MS, TX and such) is stil trying to get it back together after Katrina, Rita and Gustav .......
Thank you to eveyone who has been posting all the updates!! You're doing a great job!!
Be safe, all!
No one neds a 'cane and I know I don't want it to veer in towards the Tampa Bay area, but ......... LA has already had one this season and that whole area (LA, MS, TX and such) is stil trying to get it back together after Katrina, Rita and Gustav .......
Thank you to eveyone who has been posting all the updates!! You're doing a great job!!
Be safe, all!
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Prolly a good choice EJ.....
APPARENTLY Ike is gonna run the slot into the Gulf....
APPARENTLY Ike is gonna run the slot into the Gulf....
penumbra
centrist member
000
WTNT34 KNHC 060256
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS...
AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 060256
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS...
AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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