WEATHER Hurricane Ike Forms In The Atlantic

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 012041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...IKE...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...FORMS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6
WEST OR ABOUT 1400 MILES...2250 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...40.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 012043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED...CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS
BASIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IKE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH
AND THE LOW SHEAR...IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN THE HWRF. THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE STORM
IS ALREADY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 40.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.0N 42.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 45.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 48.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 51.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 58.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 64.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 22.0N 69.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

[Jarhead]

Latest Models...

 

[Jarhead]

Latest Sat. Image...

 

[BaywaterRoss]

First update. 5pm Monday 1 Sep 08.

-Ross

 

[Amanda Blue]

Things sure are getting busy. I don't have time for any hurricanes. they all need to go away! There is also an invest after this one, I hope it doesn't develop into anything

 

[Jarhead]

Ah, Amanda.....

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...ON HURRICANE
HANNA...LOCATED NEAR MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND ON RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IKE...LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE (Invest 99) LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON IKE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON IKE ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[Josie]

I can't keep up with all of this!!! I just found out about Hanna!!!

 

[FireDance]

DAMMIT ROSS! Make it STOP!

 

[Jarhead]

I can't keep up with all of this!!! I just found out about Hanna!!!

he he, know what you mean!

Jarhead

 

[Lilbitsnana]

So, what's the record for number of systems/storms/canes having activity concurrently? Are we there yet?

 

[Kris Gandillon]

This is very similar to 2005 when Katrina hit...

Then the hits just kept on coming...

There were often 2-3-4 in progress and another couple of possibles waiting in the wings to materialize.

See below...


Kris

 

[penumbra]

So, what's the record for number of systems/storms/canes having activity concurrently? Are we there yet?

There's a discussion at Storm2K saying that the most ever is 5.

 

[BaywaterRoss]

DAMMIT ROSS! Make it STOP!

Yeah I WISH!!

-Ross

 

[Lilbitsnana]

There's a discussion at Storm2K saying that the most ever is 5.

Thanks. I have been switching between there and here the last 3 days. I had things to do and switched to just here this afternoon, should have stuck around there just a little longer.

 

[Jean B]

I think Josephine is after Ike. I told my husband and he said they sound like a 60's rock band....

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 020257
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...IKE CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1330
MILES...2145 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A MOTION
MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N...41.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 020300
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE
HAS ERODED A BIT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
REGARDLESS...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT
AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING RATE WITH TIME...AND SUGGEST
THAT IKE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A LITTLE DIVERGENCE IN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
BEYOND 48 HOURS. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF INTENSIFY IKE INTO A
POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE WEAKENING
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12...WITHIN IN THE DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE UKMET IS THE ONLY
GLOBAL MODEL OUTSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND INDICATES A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD MOTION. THE UKMET TRACK IS MORE THAN
LIKELY DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CREATED BY A
SLOWER MOVING HURRICANE HANNA. ACCORDINGLY...THE NHC FORECAST IS
WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS THAT SUGGEST A
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.0N 41.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.5N 43.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.2N 46.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 49.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 52.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 59.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

 

[Jarhead]

Additional tracking map and Models....

 

[Jarhead]

Latest Sat. image.....

 

[Jarhead]

Packing it in for the night. See you all in the morning.

Stay safe, everyone.

Jarhead

 

[buff]

I can't keep up with all of this!!! I just found out about Hanna!!!

We forgive you Josie...you are in Illinois...y'all are probably getting ready for snow.

good god how anyone lives in the north i'll never understand.

people ask me what direction my life is taking and i say "south"

 

[jim_bo]

By the pictures I just saw of the pending TS, the one right off of the African coast already has an eye to it, I have never seen this, does this mean it will be a storm of great intensity? Does anyone know?

Just wondering.

Praying for those in the impending storms path, my daughter along with them.

Jim_bo

 

[Josie]

DAMMIT ROSS! Make it STOP!

Maybe if we all lean to the east, it will "roll" back to where it came from!?

 

[Phlatulance]

New updated forecast graphic

hehe

 

[Seabird]

5:00 am advisory: Tuesday 9/2

Issued at: 4:55 AM AST 9/2/08 (gateway).


Ike moving westward across the open tropical atlantic ocean,

At 500 am ast, 0900z, the center of tropical storm ike was located near latitude 18.6 north, longitude 43.1 west or about 1235 miles 1985 km, east of the leeward islands.

Ike is moving toward the west near 15 mph, 24 km/hr, and a motion toward the west or west-northwest at about the same speed is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, 85 km/hr, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next two days.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, 185 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb, 29.68 inches.

Repeating the 500 am ast position, 18.6 n, 43.1 w. Movement toward, west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 50 mph. Minimum central pressure, 1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 1100 am ast.

 

[Jumpy Frog]

That's cute...................

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 020855
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...IKE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1235 MILES
...1985 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.6 N...43.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 020856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE BANDING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURFACE
CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN
3.0 OR 45 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK
AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY
OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. AS THE CUTOFF LOW CURENTLY
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
MOTION WESTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG ABOUT
20N WOULD BE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY OUR MOST
RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A RELATIVELY
TIGHT CLUSTER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE MORE NORTHERLY PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. IN THE NEAR
TERM...IKE IS IN A CONDUCIVE DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT...BUT THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARM SSTS AND A
POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO ITS SOUTH. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO 29C...BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE AS FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW EAST OF IKE AND THE UPPER
RIDGE NORTHWEST OF IKE IS PREDICTED TO PRODUCE 30 KT
NORTHEASTERLIES. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
CALLING FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
WHICH SUGGEST A MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NEARLY THE SAME AS PROVIDED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 18.6N 43.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 19.0N 45.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 19.6N 48.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.2N 51.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 20.8N 54.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 21.5N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 21.5N 66.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 72.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

 

[Jarhead]

Add. trackong and Models....

 

[Jarhead]

Sat. image...

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 021456
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...IKE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1110
MILES...1785 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...18.9 N...45.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 021459
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS A COMPACT AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
PRIMARILY BEEN LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 0847 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
HAS EXPANDED A BIT...AND A FEW 50-55 KT BARBS WERE LOCATED WITHIN
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF
IKE. MOST MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN...ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TO
DAY 5. IN FACT...WITH A LATITUDINAL SPREAD OF ONLY 5 DEGREES AT DAY
5...WE COULDN'T HAVE ASKED FOR BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE STORM HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED WITH AN AVERAGE MOTION OF
280/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST IN TANDEM
WITH THE CYCLONE. SOME OF THE MODELS... PARTICULARLY THE GFDL AND
HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD BEND AND BRING IKE VERY CLOSE TO OR
OVER HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE MODELS BRING IKE TO A
MAJOR HURRICANE...AND SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES
NOT CALL FOR SUCH STRENGTHENING...I PREFER TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS.

THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDS IKE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM...IT IS PROBABLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DRY AIR AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO UNTIL IT CAN DEVELOP JUST ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
TO ISOLATE ITSELF. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS.
THE GFDL AND HWRF APPARENTLY IGNORE SUCH SHEAR AND FORECAST IKE TO
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. WHILE THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
A POSSIBILITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.9N 45.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.3N 47.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 19.9N 50.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.5N 53.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 56.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 21.5N 62.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 68.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 21.5N 74.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

 

[Jarhead]

Add. tracking and Models...

 

[Jarhead]

Latest Sat. image... Looking pretty good (or bad, as the case might be).

 

[Jarhead]

From Weather Underground.....

Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:26 AM EDT on September 02, 2008

Ike
Tropical Storm Ike spun up yesterday in the middle Atlantic, and has the potential to become a major Cape Verdes-type hurricane. Visible satellite loops show an expanding circulation, with good upper-level outflow developing in all quadrants. Ike is in a very favorable upper-level wind environment, with an upper-level anticyclone overhead, and wind shear less than 10 knots. There is not much heavy thunderstorm activity yet, probably due to the presence of some dry air and rather cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 27°C. SSTs will gradually warm to 29°C over the next five days, but the shear is forecast by some models to increase above 20 knots by Thursday.

The SHIPS model responds by strengthening Ike only to a Category 1 hurricane. However, the HWRF and GFDL models do not depict as much shear 3-5 days from now, and intensify Ike into a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane on Friday, when it is expected to be 100-300 miles north of Puerto Rico. Both of these models predict landfall in the Dominican Republic or Haiti as a major hurricane on Saturday. This kind of intensification seems unlikely at present, due to the increased shear likely Thursday and Friday. The GFS and ECMWF foresee Ike passing through Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico next week. The first Hurricane Hunter mission into Ike is scheduled for Friday afternoon.

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 022041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES
...1655 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.2 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

 

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 022042
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AFTER LOOKING CONVECTIVELY ASYMMETRIC THIS MORNING...IKE HAS
WRAPPED A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER
EXCEPT FOR SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. CONSEQUENTLY...
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE.

IKE CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG WITHIN THE TRADES AT 280/15. THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IKE...STEERING
IT WESTWARD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC AND
RESULT IN VERY LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IN THE COMING DAYS. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...THE
MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING IS THE TRACK OF THE UKMET...
WHICH CURVES IKE TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 65W IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER
WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS...SHOWING A SLIGHT
SOUTH-OF-DUE-WEST MOTION IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE EXACT STEERING REGIME AT DAY 5 REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RECONCILES THIS BY SHOWING A MORE OR LESS
WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM...
BRINGING IKE TO A HURRICANE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A BIT RESERVED AND SHOW
PEAK INTENSITIES OF 70-80 KT BEFORE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SETS
IN BY 48 HOURS. THE HWRF MODEL IS WELL ABOVE ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE
AND IN GENERAL ITS SOLUTION IS NOT COUNTED AT THIS TIME.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON THAT INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD NOT OCCUR SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 19.2N 46.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 19.6N 48.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 20.3N 51.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 55.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.6N 57.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 63.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.5N 69.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 75.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

 

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