WEATHER Hurricane Ike Forms In The Atlantic

[Jarhead]

Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Thursday, September 4, 2008

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hurricane Ike:

Of much more concern now is Hurricane Ike. This hurricane has undergone major intensification over the last 24 hours and as of early this morning is a powerful 145 mph Category 4 hurricane. Satellite imagery shows an eye embedded in very cold cloud tops. The latest SHIPS intensity model shows 30 knots or more of wind shear over Ike within the next 24 to 36 hours due to a strengthening high pressure system to the northwest of the hurricane. This large-scale environmental influence should knock Ike down to a Category 3 hurricane by late Friday.
After Saturday, some restrengthening is probable as the shear weakens and the thermodynamic environment is expected to be favorable and Ike may strengthen back up to a Category 4 hurricane by later Sunday or Monday.

Ike is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 17 mph. A ridge of high pressure is forecast by the global models to build to the northwest of Ike within the next couple of days. This weather pattern would likely cause the heading of Ike to bend to the west and even west-southwest.
By Monday and Tuesday, it is expected that Ike will have passed the center of the high and turn back to a west to west-northwest heading.
One very large question is how Ike responds to the weakness in the ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States on Tuesday.
The European model is the westernmost model and forecasts Ike to track right up the east coast of Florida from Miami to Daytona Beach on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The GFS model is the most eastern model and keeps the hurricane offshore and does not make landfall.
The Canadian model is somewhere in the middle and forecasts a hurricane to track up the US East Coast from Tuesday evening to Friday evening.
Based on this and looking at the two extremes, the middle approach of the Canadian model may be best for now, however, either one of these scenarios could occur in the end and all interests along the entire US East Coast should pay close attention to the progress of Hurricane Ike.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Friday morning.

 

[Hfcomms]

Ike's the one to watch. Somebody is going to get hit hard from this one.

 

[Wise Owl]

So it looks like Ike may follow behind Hanna up the coast?

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 041433
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...A LITTLE WEAKER...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES...
845 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE BUT INTERESTS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DATA FROM THE NASA QUIKSCAT SATELLITE INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...57.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 041434
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

IKE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL. HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW
ASYMMETRIC DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE COME DOWN A
LITTLE BIT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 120 KT. GLOBAL
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER IKE AND KEEP STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...INNER-
CORE EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR...WHICH COULD WEAKEN IKE AS WELL.
IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND SOME
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF IKE...THE HURRICANE COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THAT HAVE BEEN STIRRED UP BY HANNA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS
IKE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT ABOUT 290/14...A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
IKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST
PART OF THIS FORECAST WITH THE MODELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT. THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS
MORNING. THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE
LATITUDE INITIALLY...THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...
COMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL...SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE
BAHAMAS. WITH CREDIBLE MODELS IN EACH GROUP...IT IS PROBABLY BEST
TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A
BIAS-CORRECTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS HURRICANE. HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF
IKE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 23.2N 57.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 23.8N 58.9W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 61.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 23.6N 63.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 66.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 71.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 74.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 77.5W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

 

[Jarhead]

tracking and Models...
.

 

[Jarhead]

Image Updated: 2:49 PM GMT on September 04, 2008
.

 

[Surprise]

This ain't looking too good is it folks.

 

[Reborn]

No, it's not. Time to start praying about this one now.

 

[Jarhead]

MHO, but I've got a real bad feeling about this one. Hope I'm wrong.

Jarhead

Above from post 48.....

Agreed, this looks to be a bad one. Hope it turns into a "fish storm".

Jarhead

 

[GingerN]

tracking and Models...
.

Am I off base thinking that it could very well continue its track and come up to GA?

 

[Desperado]

This one is scary.... and it's getting way too close for comfort at this point.

 

[fairbanksb]

This one is scary.... and it's getting way too close for comfort at this point.

This one worries the heck out of me too. I have family in N. Miami and in Hollywood. Then again Ike may enter the Gulf and come at me in the panhandle. Best case scenario is he turns and heads out to sea.

 

[Jarhead]

Am I off base thinking that it could very well continue its track and come up to GA?

It could. Ike could also cross Fl and head into the GOM. A lot depends on the ridge that will steer it. Probably have a better handle on Ike's track Saturday.
Need to keep a really close eye (no pun intended) on this one.

Jarhead

 

[brandyh29]

Am I off base thinking that it could very well continue its track and come up to GA?

One of the maps has a line that goes straight across Georgia (Im in GA too).
Maybe this will do like Gustav and weaken considerably. Gustav was not as bad as people thought he would be.

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 042031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVERNIGHT....

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...23.6 N...58.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 042032
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THOUGH
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM...THE
CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT. STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE
SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...THOUGH
THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. IN A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND...COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM
WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...SHOULD RESULT IN
RESTRENGTHENING. THE HURRICANE'S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE
LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT. RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
CAUSING A WEST...AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE
TOMORROW. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL
BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD
SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH THE
GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA. THE
OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS
BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 23.6N 58.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 23.9N 60.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 62.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 23.2N 65.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

 

[Jarhead]

Tracking and Models...

 

[GingerN]

One of the maps has a line that goes straight across Georgia (Im in GA too).
Maybe this will do like Gustav and weaken considerably. Gustav was not as bad as people thought he would be.

I think you are just a few miles from me. The bad part is that your area normally gets more bad weather than ours.

 

[Desperado]

This one worries the heck out of me too. I have family in N. Miami and in Hollywood. Then again Ike may enter the Gulf and come at me in the panhandle. Best case scenario is he turns and heads out to sea.

This one I may just board up the house and get out of the way for awhile.
The problem is if I head north I just don't want this storm following me up the turnpike. I'll wait till Saturday or Sunday to get a better handle on it, before I decide on what I'll do.

 

[ejagno]

Load....Unload...Wash....Organize....Reload.....repeat thru Nov. 2008

Now this Euro has us reloading our vehicles quick, fast and in a hurry in the event we are evacuated again next week.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...a!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090412!!!step/

 

[Jarhead]

Image Updated: 10:21 PM GMT on September 04, 2008

 

[Jarhead]

Load....Unload...Wash....Organize....Reload.....repeat thru Nov. 2008

Now this Euro has us reloading our vehicles quick, fast and in a hurry in the event we are evacuated again next week.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...a!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090412!!!step/

I'm not liking that track at all. Especially that little jog to the NE after landfall. Right at me!

Jarhead

 

[fairbanksb]

This one I may just board up the house and get out of the way for awhile.
The problem is if I head north I just don't want this storm following me up the turnpike. I'll wait till Saturday or Sunday to get a better handle on it, before I decide on what I'll do.

Getting out of the way would be a very wise move. Good luck to you.

 

[Seabird]

I reeeeeeeeaaaaaaaly do not care for that track. Move north, Ike! C'mon. There's lot's of warm water out there in the open sea. You can spin yourself silly!

 

[FlyLadyFan]

Bump this important thread.

My dd21 has to spend the night in Puerto Rico this Saturday post-cruise and pre-flight out on Sunday. Track looks like it won't go that far south. Let's keep it that way.

FLF

.

ETA: Jarhead's post #102 -- that has real evil-eye buzz-saw look to it, don't ya'll think?

.

 

[Hfcomms]

Forecast from a professional Met off of S2K

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103030

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 050246
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE TURNS WESTWARD...REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES...
760 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 755 MILES
...1215 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...23.6 N...59.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 050247
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

IKE REMAINS A SMALL...BUT IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS
SOME EVIDENCE OF THE ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AS THE
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE HURRICANE. DESPITE THE EVIDENCE OF SHEAR....THE EYE HAS
CLEARED AND REMAINS SURROUNDED BY -70 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOUD TOPS.
BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 115 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...
WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS AGAIN BETWEEN
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE. IN ABOUT 2
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IKE TO
RE-STRENGTHEN.

IT APPEARS THAT IKE HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING OR 275/12...
HOWEVER A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD. IKE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER...IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN TAKE PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE
TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND
ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT
BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM...CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AS A REMINDER...4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY
LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 23.6N 59.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 23.6N 61.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 23.4N 64.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 22.9N 66.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 69.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 73.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 80.0W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

[Jarhead]

Add. tracking and Models.
.

 

[Jarhead]

Image Updated: 3:29 AM GMT on September 05, 2008.
.

 

[Jarhead]

Add. sat. images...
.

 

[Jarhead]

Wind Swath Forecast

 

[Sysman]

Ike could be a nasty sucker. Cat 4 now, many saying it will grow. Well worth keeping a close eye on...

I'm pretty sure that, somewhere, I have a shot of the "5 storms". Couldn't find it ATM, but I did come across this one. Note the date, this was Floyd...

Notice the storm off the SE, just like H today. And notice the mid-Atlantic monster, just like I...

Is this going to be a rerun of '99?

 

[Wise Owl]

If I lived in Miami, I would be already on the road north!

 

[Wise Owl]

Sysman, you forgot Josephine! She is bring up the rear!

 

[Jarhead]

Can anyone say "Andrew"?

Jarhead

 

[Beetree]

Where is the LIVE feed we used to get?

If I want a coloring book I can go to the dollar store.

 

[lgsracer]

Man I hope it isn't a replay of Andrew that one went on and tore up the Gulf Coast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Andrew_1992_track.png

 

[Jarhead]

Meanwhile....

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOR
IN THE BAHAMAS...ON HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 505 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM JOSEPHINE...LOCATED ABOUT 590 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN