WEATHER Hurricane Ike Daily Thread For Saturday 9-13-08
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Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT24 KNHC 132031
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 95.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 425SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 95.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 95.4W
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.1N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 38.9N 88.9W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 43.0N 80.3W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 95.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT24 KNHC 132031
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 95.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 425SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 95.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 95.4W
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.1N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 38.9N 88.9W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 43.0N 80.3W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 95.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 140254
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
...IKE STILL A TROPICAL STORM AS IT HEADS INTO ARKANSAS...
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9
WEST...ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTH OF TEXARKANA...AND ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON SUNDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES LATER ON SUNDAY AS IKE
LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IKE MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...AND IT IS EXPECTED BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON SUNDAY. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BY MONDAY AFTER IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IKE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN
INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...34.3 N...93.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT34 KNHC 140254
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
...IKE STILL A TROPICAL STORM AS IT HEADS INTO ARKANSAS...
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9
WEST...ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTH OF TEXARKANA...AND ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON SUNDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES LATER ON SUNDAY AS IKE
LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IKE MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...AND IT IS EXPECTED BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON SUNDAY. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BY MONDAY AFTER IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IKE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN
INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...34.3 N...93.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT24 KNHC 140247
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC SUN SEP 14 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 93.9W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 93.9W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 94.8W
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 37.4N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 42.2N 82.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 46.8N 71.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 51.0N 59.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...MERGED WITH LARGER LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 93.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT24 KNHC 140247
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC SUN SEP 14 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 93.9W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 93.9W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 94.8W
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 37.4N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 42.2N 82.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 46.8N 71.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 51.0N 59.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...MERGED WITH LARGER LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 93.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT44 KNHC 140259
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
IKE STILL EXHIBITS SOLID AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND CERTAINLY STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT WERE REPORTED EAST OF THE CENTER AT
TEXARKANA AT SYNOPTIC TIME...AND THE BAND THAT PRODUCED THOSE WINDS
HAS NOT YET PASSED OVER ANOTHER SURFACE OBSERVING SITE. RADAR
VELOCITIES FROM SHREVEPORT AND LITTLE ROCK DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH
EVIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED THIS
EVENING...SO I AM COMPELLED TO ASSUME THAT IKE IS STILL PRODUCING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE SOMEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER LOW
AT ABOUT 982 MB. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS IKE
PROCEEDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IT COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
ROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...IKE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...AND MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
025/21. EVEN THOUGH IKE WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IKE
REMAINING A DISTINCT ENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE EXTRATROPICAL
VERSION OF IKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGER LOW AT VERY
HIGH LATITUDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 34.3N 93.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 37.4N 91.2W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/0000Z 42.2N 82.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 15/1200Z 46.8N 71.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 16/0000Z 51.0N 59.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT44 KNHC 140259
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
IKE STILL EXHIBITS SOLID AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND CERTAINLY STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT WERE REPORTED EAST OF THE CENTER AT
TEXARKANA AT SYNOPTIC TIME...AND THE BAND THAT PRODUCED THOSE WINDS
HAS NOT YET PASSED OVER ANOTHER SURFACE OBSERVING SITE. RADAR
VELOCITIES FROM SHREVEPORT AND LITTLE ROCK DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH
EVIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED THIS
EVENING...SO I AM COMPELLED TO ASSUME THAT IKE IS STILL PRODUCING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE SOMEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER LOW
AT ABOUT 982 MB. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS IKE
PROCEEDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IT COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
ROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...IKE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...AND MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
025/21. EVEN THOUGH IKE WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IKE
REMAINING A DISTINCT ENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE EXTRATROPICAL
VERSION OF IKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGER LOW AT VERY
HIGH LATITUDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 34.3N 93.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 37.4N 91.2W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/0000Z 42.2N 82.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 15/1200Z 46.8N 71.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 16/0000Z 51.0N 59.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Thanks, thyme. I kinda thought that's what was happening, but this is the first time that I remember seeing a 'cane go to a T/D and then back up (after landfall) to a T/S.
Jarhead
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 902. WATCH NUMBER 902 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
700 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 903...
DISCUSSION...OUTER ERN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NWD/NNEWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL STABILIZE SLOWLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...A FEED OF 75-80 F DEWPOINTS FROM THE S WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SOME
INSTABILITY AND RICH MOISTURE...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
STILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19045.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 902. WATCH NUMBER 902 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
700 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 903...
DISCUSSION...OUTER ERN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NWD/NNEWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL STABILIZE SLOWLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...A FEED OF 75-80 F DEWPOINTS FROM THE S WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SOME
INSTABILITY AND RICH MOISTURE...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
STILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19045.
Attachments
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
AXNT20 KNHC 140003
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 33.3N 94.8W AT 14/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 40 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA MOVING N-NE AT 18 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS ERN
TEXAS/WRN LOUISIANA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 92W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W FROM 8N-21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A
1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INDICATED
BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 39W-44W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE...A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW REGIME IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACROSS NE VENEZUELA S OF 11N BETWEEN 62W-65W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WEAK
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN
COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
73W-75W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N17W 10N21W 8N24W 7N44W 8N50W
8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
13W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 23W-26W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS ARE ACROSS THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO AS T.S. IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE N-NE ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ERN
TENNESSEE AND AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
PRODUCING GENERALLY EASTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E
OF 93W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OBSERVED OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN GULF THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN
GULF. S-SE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W AND EXTENDS ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF
76W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W
AND EXTENDS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 76W-83W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
69W-77W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING UNDER
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INVERTED UPPER TROUGHING ENTERS THE FAR SW ATLC FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 29N70W TO 23N74W AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 69W-72W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
25N46W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE ATLC N OF 22N
FROM 40W EAST TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL
ATLC W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 15N30W AND IS
GENERATING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW ALONG
43W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 65W
AND N OF 27N W OF 75W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A
1018 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W AND A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N46W.
$$
HUFFMAN
AXNT20 KNHC 140003
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 33.3N 94.8W AT 14/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 40 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA MOVING N-NE AT 18 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS ERN
TEXAS/WRN LOUISIANA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 92W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W FROM 8N-21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A
1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INDICATED
BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 39W-44W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE...A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW REGIME IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACROSS NE VENEZUELA S OF 11N BETWEEN 62W-65W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WEAK
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN
COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
73W-75W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N17W 10N21W 8N24W 7N44W 8N50W
8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
13W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 23W-26W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS ARE ACROSS THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO AS T.S. IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE N-NE ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ERN
TENNESSEE AND AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
PRODUCING GENERALLY EASTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E
OF 93W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OBSERVED OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN GULF THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN
GULF. S-SE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W AND EXTENDS ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF
76W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W
AND EXTENDS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 76W-83W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
69W-77W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING UNDER
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INVERTED UPPER TROUGHING ENTERS THE FAR SW ATLC FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 29N70W TO 23N74W AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 69W-72W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
25N46W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE ATLC N OF 22N
FROM 40W EAST TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL
ATLC W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 15N30W AND IS
GENERATING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW ALONG
43W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 65W
AND N OF 27N W OF 75W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A
1018 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W AND A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N46W.
$$
HUFFMAN
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 140548
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 52A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008
...IKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS...
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...OR
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...EAST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS AND ABOUT
105 MILES...170 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE MIDWESTERN
STATES LATER TODAY AS IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BY MONDAY AFTER IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS TODAY AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN
INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...35.4 N...93.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT34 KNHC 140548
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 52A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008
...IKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS...
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...OR
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...EAST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS AND ABOUT
105 MILES...170 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE MIDWESTERN
STATES LATER TODAY AS IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BY MONDAY AFTER IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS TODAY AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN
INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...35.4 N...93.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Watch 904 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 904
VALID 140530Z - 140640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW POE TO
25 W MLU TO 20 SW LLQ.
..MEAD..09/14/08
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 904
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-140640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-049-059-065-067-069-
073-079-083-097-107-111-115-123-127-140640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND
ST. LANDRY TENSAS UNION
VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 904
VALID 140530Z - 140640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW POE TO
25 W MLU TO 20 SW LLQ.
..MEAD..09/14/08
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 904
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-140640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-049-059-065-067-069-
073-079-083-097-107-111-115-123-127-140640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND
ST. LANDRY TENSAS UNION
VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Attachments
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on September 14, 2008
...Ike accelerating northeastward across northern Arkansas...
at 400 am CDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Ike was
located near latitude 36.4 north...longitude 92.5 west or near Bull
Shoals Arkansas. This position is also about 115 miles...
185 km...north of Little Rock Arkansas...and about 75 miles...
120 km...southeast of Springfield Missouri.
Ike is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph...50 km/hr. A
general motion toward the northeast with an additional increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. This
motion should bring the center of Ike through the mid-Mississippi
Valley today and into the eastern Great Lakes states by Monday
morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike should lose tropical characteristics during the next 12
to 24 hours as it merges with a cold front. The system could
strengthen as a non-tropical low Sunday night or Monday. Winds of
30 to 35 mph...50 to 55 km/hr...with gusts of 40 to 45 mph...65 to
70 km/hr...have been reported at several stations in eastern
Arkansas during the past few hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 986 mb...29.12 inches.
Water levels will gradually subside along the Upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts today.
Ike is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches from Missouri into Illinois...northern Indiana...and
Southern Lower Michigan through Sunday evening.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today from southeastern Missouri and
the Tennessee Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley.
Repeating the 400 am CDT position...36.4 N...92.5 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 30 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...986 mb.
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future advisories on Ike will be issued by
the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center in Washington DC.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on September 14, 2008
...Ike accelerating northeastward across northern Arkansas...
at 400 am CDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Ike was
located near latitude 36.4 north...longitude 92.5 west or near Bull
Shoals Arkansas. This position is also about 115 miles...
185 km...north of Little Rock Arkansas...and about 75 miles...
120 km...southeast of Springfield Missouri.
Ike is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph...50 km/hr. A
general motion toward the northeast with an additional increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. This
motion should bring the center of Ike through the mid-Mississippi
Valley today and into the eastern Great Lakes states by Monday
morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike should lose tropical characteristics during the next 12
to 24 hours as it merges with a cold front. The system could
strengthen as a non-tropical low Sunday night or Monday. Winds of
30 to 35 mph...50 to 55 km/hr...with gusts of 40 to 45 mph...65 to
70 km/hr...have been reported at several stations in eastern
Arkansas during the past few hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 986 mb...29.12 inches.
Water levels will gradually subside along the Upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts today.
Ike is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches from Missouri into Illinois...northern Indiana...and
Southern Lower Michigan through Sunday evening.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today from southeastern Missouri and
the Tennessee Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley.
Repeating the 400 am CDT position...36.4 N...92.5 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 30 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...986 mb.
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future advisories on Ike will be issued by
the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center in Washington DC.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Tropical Depression Ike Discussion Number 53
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 14, 2008
Surface observations indicate that Ike weakened to a tropical
depression during the past several hours...with 25 to 30 kt winds
and higher gusts occurring well to the southeast of the center. The
surface data show a cold front is approaching Ike...with an area of
25-35 kt winds developing behind the front from southwestern
Missouri across northwestern Arkansas into eastern Oklahoma. This
is the first sign of extratropical transition...and it is expected
that Ike will lose tropical characteristics during the next 24
hours as it merges with the front. Some re-intensification is
expected after extratropical transition is complete...with Ike
producing gale-force winds until it merges with a larger low in
about 72 hr.
The initial motion is now 045/26. Ike is expected to accelerate
toward the northeast during the next 24 hours...and then continue
rapidly northeastward until the system merges with the larger low
at very high latitude.
This is the last advisory on Ike from the National Hurricane Center.
Future advisories will be issued by the Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center in Washington DC.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/0900z 36.4n 92.5w 30 kt...inland
12hr VT 14/1800z 40.4n 87.0w 30 kt...becoming extratropical
24hr VT 15/0600z 45.6n 76.5w 35 kt...inland extratropical
36hr VT 15/1800z 50.0n 65.3w 40 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 16/0600z 55.0n 52.5w 40 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 17/0600z...merged with larger low
$$
forecaster Beven
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 14, 2008
Surface observations indicate that Ike weakened to a tropical
depression during the past several hours...with 25 to 30 kt winds
and higher gusts occurring well to the southeast of the center. The
surface data show a cold front is approaching Ike...with an area of
25-35 kt winds developing behind the front from southwestern
Missouri across northwestern Arkansas into eastern Oklahoma. This
is the first sign of extratropical transition...and it is expected
that Ike will lose tropical characteristics during the next 24
hours as it merges with the front. Some re-intensification is
expected after extratropical transition is complete...with Ike
producing gale-force winds until it merges with a larger low in
about 72 hr.
The initial motion is now 045/26. Ike is expected to accelerate
toward the northeast during the next 24 hours...and then continue
rapidly northeastward until the system merges with the larger low
at very high latitude.
This is the last advisory on Ike from the National Hurricane Center.
Future advisories will be issued by the Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center in Washington DC.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/0900z 36.4n 92.5w 30 kt...inland
12hr VT 14/1800z 40.4n 87.0w 30 kt...becoming extratropical
24hr VT 15/0600z 45.6n 76.5w 35 kt...inland extratropical
36hr VT 15/1800z 50.0n 65.3w 40 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 16/0600z 55.0n 52.5w 40 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 17/0600z...merged with larger low
$$
forecaster Beven
Attachments
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KWNH 141525
TCPAT4
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 54 FOR REMNANTS OF IKE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL092008
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008
...REMNANTS OF IKE RACING NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL TEXAS INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL FLOOD AND
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
MUCH OF ILLINOIS...ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.
MANY COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
THROUGH THESE AREAS.
AT 1000 AM CDT...15Z...LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS IKE...WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST...OR 60 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS MISSOURI. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH OR 64 KM/HR.
THE LOW WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ACROSS INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 TO 40 MPH...55 TO 65 KM/HR...WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 987 MB...OR
29.15 INCHES.
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 700 AM CDT
...LOUISIANA...
NATCHITOCHES 3.68
GOLDONNA 2.57
MONROE 2.45
...TEXAS...
MISSION BEND 7.37
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 4.99
HUNTSVILLE 4.90
COLLEGE STATION 3.45
TYLER 2.69
PARIS 2.44
...ARKANSAS...
FAYETTEVILLE/DRAKE 4.35
HARRISON 2.26
FORT SMITH 2.23
...MISSISSIPPI...
...ILLINOIS...
QUINCY 3.04
PEORIA 3.67
...MISSOURI...
FAIR GROVE 5.52
ASHLAND 5.39
BUFFALO 5.28
LIBERAL 5.25
CROSS TIMBERS 5.18
BROOKFIELD 5.11
COLE CAMP 5.06
PLATTSBURG 5.06
HERMITAGE 5.06
JEFFERSON CITY 5.06
HIGHLANDVILLE 5.02
WHEATLAND 5.02
FORNEY AAF 4.63
COLUMBIA 4.60
...KANSAS...
MCCUNE 3.80
COFFEYVILLE 3.16
...OKLAHOMA...
CLAREMORE 2.44
MUSKOGEE 2.38
SAND SPRINGS 2.10
THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...39.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE
89.0 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 TO 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SUNDAY BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.
ECKERT/FRACASSO
FORECAST POSITIONS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 39.0N 89.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 15/0000Z 42.2N 81.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 15/1200Z 48.1N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
WTNT34 KWNH 141525
TCPAT4
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 54 FOR REMNANTS OF IKE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL092008
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008
...REMNANTS OF IKE RACING NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL TEXAS INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL FLOOD AND
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
MUCH OF ILLINOIS...ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.
MANY COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
THROUGH THESE AREAS.
AT 1000 AM CDT...15Z...LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS IKE...WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST...OR 60 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS MISSOURI. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH OR 64 KM/HR.
THE LOW WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ACROSS INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 TO 40 MPH...55 TO 65 KM/HR...WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 987 MB...OR
29.15 INCHES.
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 700 AM CDT
...LOUISIANA...
NATCHITOCHES 3.68
GOLDONNA 2.57
MONROE 2.45
...TEXAS...
MISSION BEND 7.37
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 4.99
HUNTSVILLE 4.90
COLLEGE STATION 3.45
TYLER 2.69
PARIS 2.44
...ARKANSAS...
FAYETTEVILLE/DRAKE 4.35
HARRISON 2.26
FORT SMITH 2.23
...MISSISSIPPI...
...ILLINOIS...
QUINCY 3.04
PEORIA 3.67
...MISSOURI...
FAIR GROVE 5.52
ASHLAND 5.39
BUFFALO 5.28
LIBERAL 5.25
CROSS TIMBERS 5.18
BROOKFIELD 5.11
COLE CAMP 5.06
PLATTSBURG 5.06
HERMITAGE 5.06
JEFFERSON CITY 5.06
HIGHLANDVILLE 5.02
WHEATLAND 5.02
FORNEY AAF 4.63
COLUMBIA 4.60
...KANSAS...
MCCUNE 3.80
COFFEYVILLE 3.16
...OKLAHOMA...
CLAREMORE 2.44
MUSKOGEE 2.38
SAND SPRINGS 2.10
THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...39.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE
89.0 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 TO 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SUNDAY BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.
ECKERT/FRACASSO
FORECAST POSITIONS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 39.0N 89.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 15/0000Z 42.2N 81.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 15/1200Z 48.1N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
