WEATHER Hurricane Ike Daily Thread For Saturday 9-13-08

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT54 KNHC 130349
TCEAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

AT 11 PM CDT...0400Z...THE CENTER OF LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS...AND BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 28.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KBRO 130357
HLSBRO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX

1057 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY...

.AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY
NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE
...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS...AS
MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MILLIBARS...OR 28.11
INCHES.

GMZ132-TXZ251-131200-
/O.CON.KBRO.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-KENEDY-
1057 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
KENEDY COUNTY AND THE PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE IN WILLACY
COUNTY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE FOR KENEDY COUNTY WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DURING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS IKE MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THESE AREAS STARTING THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT WITH THESE
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY
DIMINISHING BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR THIS SAME
AREA IS ZERO.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 1 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KFWD 130350
HLSFWD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

1050 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE IKE TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS...

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE IKE WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HOUSTON JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IKE WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG A
LINE FROM HOUSTON TO JACKSONVILLE TO JUST EAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS.
THE STORM WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATE MORNING
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER
TOTALS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

TXZ135-147-148-162-175-131000-
/O.CON.KFWD.HI.W.0001.080913T0600Z-080914T0600Z/
HENDERSON-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LEON-ROBERTSON-
1050 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CAMERON TO ATHENS LINE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH
AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED. POWER OUTAGES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES... A FULL TANK
OF GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND
JUST IN CASE.

LOCAL OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES AND RECREATIONAL
VEHICLES IN THE HURRICANE WIND WARNING AREA SHOULD EVACUATE TO A
PERMANENT STRUCTURE. CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR SHELTER
LOCATIONS.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH WILL
OCCUR.

BE PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES...AND SOME STRUCTURE DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...INLAND FLOODING...

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES
ON CREEKS AND STREAMS AND RESULT IN FLOODING.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER SQUALLS OF
THE OUTER RAINBANDS. RESIDENTS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL BE AROUND 5 AM.

$$

TXZ143>146-157>161-174-131000-
/O.CON.KFWD.TI.W.0001.080913T0600Z-080914T0600Z/
HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-MILAM-
1050 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1
AM SUNDAY.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH
AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED...AS THEY CAN
EASILY BECOME PROJECTILES IN HIGH WINDS. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF
GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST
IN CASE.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

...INLAND FLOODING...

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER SQUALLS OF
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PARIS TO CORSICANA TO HEARNE. RESIDENTS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO
WARNINGS SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL BE AROUND 5 AM.

$$
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KHGX 130342
HLSHGX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1042 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...LARGE IKE BRINGING HURRICANE WIND GUSTS TO GALVESTON ISLAND...

.AT 1000 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY
NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS AS
MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS
FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON
ISLAND.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB OR 28.11 INCHES.

TXZ200-213-214-237-238-140345-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-LIBERTY-
1042 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

AT 1000 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

UPDATED WINDS AND TIDE OBSERVATIONS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...LIBERTY.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...EASTERN HARRIS...AND LIBERTY COUNTIES WILL
EXPERIENCE MUCH STRONGER WINDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM AS IKE
MOVES INLAND. PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE MANDATORY EVACUATION AREAS WHO
HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A WELL BUILT
STRUCTURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM.

MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH RISE BUILDINGS WILL NOT BE SAFE FOR
SHELTERING. WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER AT THE TOP
OF A HIGH RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL.

GALVESTON COUNTY HAS A CURFEW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

THE CITY OF GALVESTON HAS ESTABLISHED A SHELTER OF LAST RESORT AT
BALL HIGH SCHOOL AT 4115 AVENUE O IN GALVESTON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS REPORTED BETWEEN 930 AND 10 PM CDT:

ROLLOVER PASS - MISSING
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 5.9 FEET
MORGANS POINT - 6.0 FEET
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 7.0 FEET
EAGLE POINT - 8.5 FEET
NORTH JETTY - MISSING
PIER 21 - 9.8 FEET
PLEASURE PIER - 10.2 FEET
FREEPORT - 5.5 FEET
PORT O'CONNOR - MISSING

AS THE WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE VERY LARGE EYE TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE RISING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM TONIGHT AS THE STORM
SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE
LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS
IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET
MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

IN AREAS AROUND MATAGORDA BAY...TIDE LEVELS MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE OF
AN INCREASE.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET

GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 13 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 6 FEET

SEVERE INUNDATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYSHORE
AREAS!

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF
PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON
THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT
AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY
THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF.
COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI- STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE
DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE
FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

HIGH TIDE TIMES:

MORGANS POINT...
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT...
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR...
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH...
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS...
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT...
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR...
SAT 2:01 PM.

NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

...WINDS...

WIND SPEEDS REPORTED AT 9 AND 10 PM:

ROLLOVER PASS - SUSTAINED 45 KNOTS GUST TO 61 KNOTS
MORGANS POINT - SUSTAINED 30 KNOTS GUST TO 49 KNOTS
NORTH JETTY - SUSTAINED 51 KNOTS GUST TO 67 KNOTS
FREEPORT - SUSTAINED 38 KNOTS GUST TO 57 KNOTS
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 22 KNOTS GUST TO 44 KNOTS
EAGLE POINT - 39 KNOTS GUST TO 52 KNOTS
PLEASURE PIER - 20 KNOTS GUST TO 60 KNOTS
PORT O'CONNOR - 27 KNOTS GUST TO 35 KNOTS

PEARLAND AIRPORT - SUSTAINED 35 MPH GUST TO 54 MPH
HOUSTON HOBBY - SUSTAINED 36 MPH GUST TO 51 MPH
HOUSTON BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL - SUSTAINED 38 MPH GUST TO 52 MPH
SUGARLAND AIRPORT - SUSTAINED 35 GUST TO 47 MPH
PALACIOS - SUSTAINED 35 MPH GUST TO 49 MPH
BAY CITY - SUSTAINED 28 MPH GUST TO 40 MPH

SMITH POINT - SUSTAINED 46 MPH GUST TO 51 MPH
ANAHUAC - SUSTAINED 28 MPH GUST TO 38 MPH
ANAHUAC NWR - SUSTAINED 29 MPH GUST TO 49 MPH
COTTON BAYOU AT I-10 - SUSTAINED 22 MPH GUST TO 33 MPH
BRAZORIA NWR - SUSTAINED 29 MPH GUST TO 56 MPH
SAN BERNARD NWR - SUSTAINED 18 MPH GUST TO 49 MPH

THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL LAST UP TO 24
HOURS.

SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH WILL REACH THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST 7 TO 10 HOURS.

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF
THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION
OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF.
MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR
DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT
WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO
THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS.
OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS
IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS
WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL
BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED.
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THE FOLLOWING WATERSHEDS ARE NEAR BANK FULL OR OVER BANKS ON THE LOWER END:
CLEAR LAKE - FLOODING IN PROGRESS
CLEAR CREEK BELOW BAY AREA BOULEVARD - CURRENTLY NEAR BANK FULL
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU - HALF FULL
CEDAR BAYOU - OVER BANKS IN THE LOWER END
LOWER GOOSE CREEK
LOWER SAN JACINTO RIVER
ALL OF TAYLOR BAYOU - OVER BANKS
LOWER ARMAND BAYOU
BRAYS BAYOU BELOW INTERSTATE 45 - ONE HALF FULL
VINCE BAYOU
LITTLE VINCE BAYOU - ONE THIRD FULL
CARPENTERS BAYOU
LOWER HUNTING BAYOU
GREENS BAYOU - NEAR BANKFULL
ARMAND BAYOU
BUFFALO BAYOU
SIMS BAYOU

LOW LYING AREAS ON HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL...SAN JACINTO...SAN
JACINTO TRIBUTARIES ARE FLOODING.

A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST FORK OF THE SAN JACINTO
RIVER AT SHELDON WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND BAYOUS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ARE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA BY 11 PM.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 TO
12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL
CAUSE ADDITIONAL RAPID RISES ON THE BAYOUS DUE TO THE STORM TIDE
BACKING UP THE BAYOUS.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASING OVER CHAMBERS COUNTY
AND WILL EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE BAY AND INTO GALVESTON...HARRIS...
AND LIBERTY COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND
WEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT. YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER
IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1230 AM CDT.

$$
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WFUS54 KLCH 130404
TORLCH
LAC001-053-055-113-130430-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0101.080913T0404Z-080913T0430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

1104 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...IOTA...CROWLEY...
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...KAPLAN...ABBEVILLE...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1059 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTH
OF ABBEVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR INTRACOASTAL CITY...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 53 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ABBEVILLE BY 1110 PM CDT...
KAPLAN BY 1120 PM CDT...
CROWLEY BY 1130 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3032 9269 3046 9246 2985 9198 2978 9210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 143DEG 46KT 2987 9212

$$

GRIFFIN/KUYPER
 

Thyme

Under His Wing
OK...just saw Geraldo live in Galveston. If he's going to keep hanging around there, he needs to find a light standard, hang on to it, and broadcast as the "Pole Guy."

He looked like he was holding on to his hair to keep it from blowing away. :D


I remember when Dan Rather hung onto a poll during a cane - Dumbchits
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Image Updated: 4:28 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Catching he!! now....
.
 

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Oilpatch Hand

3-Bomb General, TB2K Army
I remember when Dan Rather hung onto a poll during a cane - Dumbchits

Last week, during Gustav, CNN-Headline News had a guy standing in a parking lot somewhere in Baton Rouge getting blown around. Every ten minutes or so, they'd cut to this poor schmoe getting pelted by rain and wind, hanging onto a light standard so he wouldn't blow away, and he'd report on how hard it was raining and how hard the wind was blowing. We started calling him "Pole Guy." They had this guy out there all afternoon, giving reports several times an hour.

"Hey...Pole Guy is still out there. Come watch the Pole Guy." :lol:

It's getting a little windy here in West Harris County, but the rain bands are east of us still. They'll be here soon enough, I guess.
 

Anjou

Inactive
Someone asked on the Friday thread about light sparkles or something... FWIW, when I was reading stuff about the 1935 hurricane in the Keys, they talked about I think it was sand that looked like fireflies... attributed to static electricity. Wouldn't be surprised... that is a LOT of energy in those storms.
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 130459
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE APPROACHING GALVESTON ISLAND...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS
...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1200 AM CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL
. STRONGER WINDS...
AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES
...445 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
GALVESTON ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1200 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WFUS54 KLCH 130507
TORLCH
LAC003-079-115-130545-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0103.080913T0507Z-080913T0545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1207 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES ELIZABETH...
SOUTHEASTERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES PITKIN...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1205 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ELIZABETH...OR ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF OBERLIN...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 51 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ELIZABETH BY 1225 AM CDT...
PITKIN BY 1235 AM CDT...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3093 9299 3107 9280 3068 9259 3061 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 0508Z 147DEG 44KT 3068 9266

$$

25
 

Anjou

Inactive
So there is something (acronym IKE) about the integrated kinetic energy of hurricanes that they've been studying, and according to a (Biloxi?) editorial I read somewhere tonight (updated: first link below), Hurricane Ike, though a strong Category 2, what with the storm surge and all that, could have the kinetic energy of a higher-category storm. This is not talking just about wind.
http://www.sunherald.com/pageone/story/811192.html

I found this, don't know the reliability of this met, but he is saying that the IKE of IKE is higher than a category-5 Katrina:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

I would read some caveats into that - again, not talking about Category 5 wind speed but factoring other stuff in.

Also, in the 11pm EDT NHC discussion, they talked about how the hurricane could have an effect on high-rise buildings of a higher-than-the-current-category hurricane, due to higher wind speeds just off the ground. They said could be a repeat of Hurricane Alicia, which shattered some downtown Houston high-rise windows.

Here's an excerpt of that 11pm:
"STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH ...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/130259.shtml?

And more about Alicia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alicia

And in the 'oh crap' department:
"Also this afternoon, the Coast Guard and the Army aborted a rescue mission to save the 22 crew members on a Cypriot freighter that had lost power in towering swells 90 miles off Galveston's coast. The ship, loaded with petroleum coke floated helplessly as Hurricane Ike approached."
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5998538.html
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
DustMusher

If anyone sees any warnings or info on the Texas Counties or AUSTIN or WASHINGTON (Seely and Bellbille or Brenham) PLEASE liet me know....Firends SIP there with their 19 Malamutes.

Only getting news for Houston and Galviston -- friends are about 50 miles WNW of Houston.

TIA

Here ya go.....

4 products issued by NWS for: 3 Miles NNE Brenham TX--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tropical Storm Wind Warning
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1042 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...LARGE IKE BRINGING HURRICANE WIND GUSTS TO GALVESTON ISLAND...

.AT 1000 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY
NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS AS
MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS
FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON
ISLAND.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB OR 28.11 INCHES.

TXZ195>197-210-211-140345-
/O.CON.KHGX.TI.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080914T1200Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-WASHINGTON-
1042 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY.
..

...NEW INFORMATION...

AT 1000 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...WASHINGTON.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

PERSONS SHOULD PREPARE THEIR PROPERTIES FOR THE EXPECTATION OF
DAMAGING WINDS. SECURE OR REMOVE ANY LOOSE ITEMS SURROUNDING YOUR
PROPERTY WHICH COULD BE BLOWN AROUND BY TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. TRIM TREES NEAR YOUR PROPERTY.

MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR
CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR
TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. UNFASTENED HOME
ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE... CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE
BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND
ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE
3 AM CDT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON
.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BEGINNING
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10
TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE
. YOU
SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

...NEXT UPDATE...


Hope this helps,,,,

Jarhead
:usm:

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1230 AM CDT
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
Image Updated: 5:39 AM GMT on September 13, 2008

Getting close to landfall....... 20 miles out.
 

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penumbra

centrist member
anjou...

You and I have been reading the same stuff. Saying the Safir-Simpson scale is obsolete.

Thanks Jarhead! My "feeling" is that this is more like The Tsunami than anything else.
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT54 KNHC 130553
TCEAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 29.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
EYE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE GALVESTON AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

THE NATIONAL OCEAN SURFACE STATION AT THE GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 85 MPH...137 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Brennan's (sp?) restaurant, in downtown Houston, has burnt to the ground.
2 people, from the restaurant, taken to the hospital, condition unknown at this time.

FD in defensive mode trying to prevent the fire from spreading.

Jarhead
:usm:
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
North edge of the eye of Ike has reached the beach on Galveston Island. Center of the eye should be making landfall shortly.

Jarhead
:usm:
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Sat. image... vis and w.v.
.
 

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Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Power co. now reporting 1,000,000 customers without electricity.

Also, power co. stated that it will be weeks not days for the power to be fully restored.

And, the storm has not abated yet.

Jarhead
:usm:
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WFUS54 KLCH 130641
TORLCH
LAC019-023-053-130715-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0105.080913T0641Z-080913T0715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

141 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...IOWA...HAYES...
EAST CENTRAL CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...LACASSINE...
WESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...WELSH...FENTON...

* UNTIL 215 AM CDT

* AT 136 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 23 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HAYES...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF ROCKEFELLER
WILDLIFE RANGE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 74 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAYES BY 155 AM CDT...
WELSH AND 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF IOWA BY 200 AM CDT...
FENTON BY 205 AM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3040 9314 3043 9305 3044 9288 2984 9266
2978 9279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 156DEG 64KT 2992 9274

$$

SHAMBURGER
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 130656
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE MOVING ONTO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON....LANDFALL
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

AT 2 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES...
15 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD CROSS THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
GALVESTON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. STRONGER
WINDS...AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR
ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.
..445 KM.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN
FREEPORT AND SABINE PASS. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM
STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 76
MPH...122 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 99 MPH...159 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...94.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Track Forecast Cone
 

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Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WFUS54 KLCH 130701
TORLCH
LAC023-053-113-130730-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0106.080913T0701Z-080913T0730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

201 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES KLONDIKE...
JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...FENTON...
WEST CENTRAL VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 230 AM CDT

* AT 158 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTH
OF KLONDIKE...MOVING NORTH AT 70 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE
ARTHUR...MOVING NORTH AT 70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KLONDIKE BY 205 AM CDT...
LAKE ARTHUR BY 210 AM CDT...
WELSH BY 220 AM CDT...
7 MILES EAST OF FENTON BY 230 AM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3043 9305 3043 9273 3010 9262 2984 9247
2977 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0659Z 159DEG 61KT 2991 9260

$$

SHAMBURGER
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Tracking and models....
 

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Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Image Updated: 6:58 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
 

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Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WFUS54 KLCH 130708
TORLCH
LAC001-053-113-130745-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0107.080913T0708Z-080913T0745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
208 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...MERMENTAU...CROWLEY...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
WESTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...KAPLAN...GUEYDAN...FORKED ISLAND...

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT

* AT 208 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 17 MILES SOUTH
OF FORKED ISLAND...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PECAN ISLAND...
MOVING NORTH AT 69 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORKED ISLAND BY 220 AM CDT...
9 MILES WEST OF KAPLAN BY 230 AM CDT...
GUEYDAN BY 235 AM CDT...
7 MILES WEST OF CROWLEY BY 240 AM CDT...
MERMENTAU BY 245 AM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3017 9266 3025 9233 2958 9218 2955 9239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0708Z 165DEG 60KT 2965 9232

$$

LANDRENEAU
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Landfall

000
WTNT64 KNHC 130731
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
230 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE MAKES LANDFALL AT GALVESTON...

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE
MADE LANDFALL AT GALVESTON TEXAS AT ABOUT 210 AM CDT.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WFUS54 KLCH 130735
TORLCH
LAC003-011-053-130800-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0108.080913T0735Z-080913T0800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
235 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...REEVES...KINDER...
NORTHEASTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SUGARTOWN...DRY CREEK...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES FENTON...

* UNTIL 300 AM CDT

* AT 232 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FENTON...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF REEVES BY 240 AM CDT...
DRY CREEK BY 250 AM CDT...
SUGARTOWN BY 300 AM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3079 9323 3088 9301 3041 9275 3034 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 0735Z 154DEG 61KT 3045 9289

$$
 
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