CRISIS Gotta ask, is da sh*t hittin' da fan?

DazedandConfused

Veteran Member
This is the SHTF scenario. This is huge. The Pale Horse rides.

Hope everyone here makes it through this.

This is life altering. We actually don't even know all the facts about this virus.

Look how China has handled this, they may actually stop the spread in their country while not telling the rest of the world any details, and may quickly rise as the single super power when this is over.

Life on our planet will be different from now on.

The US will be drastically different in a short time.

Prepare your minds for the new shift that has started.

Be smart. Try not to stress as life as we know it drastically changes.

The calm and prepared mind wins.

Try to see yourself as surviving this and everything that comes with it.

We have no idea what happens tomorrow, next week, next month. Accept that everything will change.

Pray, Pray, Pray. Prayers are answered. Be specific. Believe and receive.

This is our SHTF scenario. This is our SHTF scenario. If you aren't thinking that already... get woke.


Personally, I have mentally accepted the fact that my $ in the markets is toast, so be it.
I have mentally accepted the fact that my $ in the banks is at risk of evaporating. Accepted mentally.
I am going to be in a rough mood about everything, but hope to look to my Savior and the Father to guide my footsteps.
Don't know what that will be. But know that I have a certain role.

Accept it. This is SHTF!
 

NBCsurvivor

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Please elucidate further?

What percentage would you say are canceling?

I can tell you that my time at airports yesterday was an eye opener. Things are pretty quiet in the airports.


I can't give a percentage, but I can say that folks are calling in and specifically saying that they are cancelling due to the KungFlu. We were just told to start keeping track of that specific reason in regards to cancellations a few days ago, so there are no hard numbers yet that I am aware of. I can tell you that it's a fair amount. Plus, folks are leaving early from their reservations too. This weekend will tell the tale. I'll report back early Monday on that front.
 

nwillitts

Veteran Member
This is the SHTF scenario. This is huge. The Pale Horse rides.

Hope everyone here makes it through this.

This is life altering. We actually don't even know all the facts about this virus.

Look how China has handled this, they may actually stop the spread in their country while not telling the rest of the world any details, and may quickly rise as the single super power when this is over.

Life on our planet will be different from now on.

The US will be drastically different in a short time.

Prepare your minds for the new shift that has started.

Be smart. Try not to stress as life as we know it drastically changes.

The calm and prepared mind wins.

Try to see yourself as surviving this and everything that comes with it.

We have no idea what happens tomorrow, next week, next month. Accept that everything will change.

Pray, Pray, Pray. Prayers are answered. Be specific. Believe and receive.

This is our SHTF scenario. This is our SHTF scenario. If you aren't thinking that already... get woke.


Personally, I have mentally accepted the fact that my $ in the markets is toast, so be it.
I have mentally accepted the fact that my $ in the banks is at risk of evaporating. Accepted mentally.
I am going to be in a rough mood about everything, but hope to look to my Savior and the Father to guide my footsteps.
Don't know what that will be. But know that I have a certain role.

Accept it. This is SHTF!
fatalist.
 

ChicagoMan74

ULTRA MAGA
What is MEH? Plz? Ty
Meh (/mɛ/) is an interjection used as an expression of indifference or boredom. It is often regarded as a verbal equivalent of a shrug of the shoulders. The use of the term "meh" shows that the speaker is apathetic, uninterested, or indifferent to the question or subject at hand. It is occasionally used as an adjective, meaning something is mediocre or unremarkable.[1]

Meh's popularity surged after its use on the American animated television series The Simpsons.

699b2080005e27e0b01be91a05eb093f.jpg
 

Practical

Veteran Member
Of the current 125,000 cases of the virus worldwide:

AGE​
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities


PRE-EXISTING CONDITION​
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%

54,781

Currently Infected Patients

49,070 (90%)
in Mild Condition

5,711 (10%)
Serious or Critical
Show Graph



Show Statistics
Closed Cases

73,052

Cases which had an outcome:

68,335 (94%)
Recovered / Discharged

4,717 (6%)
Deaths
Show Graph

And now for the regular flu:

34,000,000 – 49,000,000
flu illnesses

person coughing icon

16,000,000 – 23,000,000
flu medical visits

doctor patient icon

350,000 – 620,000
flu hospitalizations

hospital room icon

20,000 – 52,000
flu deaths

flu virus icon


If people want to see the end of the world, they will. This is being politicized to hell and gone and it is going to bring about some new form of government agency which we will all be thankful for that will grind away a bit more freedom, and we will cheer as it happens. Sorry if I seem jaded, but I am jaded. We always say on this board, watch what the other hand is doing. Folks, we need to watch what the other hand is doing!
 

Jubilee on Earth

Veteran Member
Now the universities are shutting down/going online for two or three weeks. And yet the CFR for people in that age bracket barely registers.

I think it’s common knowledge now that while younger age brackets certainly fare better, they can still harbor the virus and spread it around as carriers. Dorm rooms are close quarters, and many professors are in the 60+ bracket. It was the prudent thing to do.
 

naturallysweet

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Of the current 125,000 cases of the virus worldwide:

AGE​
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities


PRE-EXISTING CONDITION​
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
54,781


Currently Infected Patients

49,070 (90%)
in Mild Condition

5,711 (10%)
Serious or Critical
Show Graph



Show Statistics

Closed Cases

73,052

Cases which had an outcome:

68,335 (94%)
Recovered / Discharged

4,717 (6%)
Deaths
Show Graph

And now for the regular flu:

34,000,000 – 49,000,000
flu illnesses

person coughing icon

16,000,000 – 23,000,000
flu medical visits

doctor patient icon

350,000 – 620,000
flu hospitalizations

hospital room icon

20,000 – 52,000
flu deaths

flu virus icon


If people want to see the end of the world, they will. This is being politicized to hell and gone and it is going to bring about some new form of government agency which we will all be thankful for that will grind away a bit more freedom, and we will cheer as it happens. Sorry if I seem jaded, but I am jaded. We always say on this board, watch what the other hand is doing. Folks, we need to watch what the other hand is doing!
The 'it's just like the flu' folks are starting to look mentally challenged as the world turns everything off. We are dealing with a really bad virus and a lot of dominoes falling.

Btw, saying it's ok that my elderly family die is pretty psychopath. Especially with so many elderly , and with preexisting. Conditions, on this board. You really should think before you post
 

David Nettleton

Veteran Member
Of the current 125,000 cases of the virus worldwide:

AGE​
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities


PRE-EXISTING CONDITION​
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
54,781


Currently Infected Patients

49,070 (90%)
in Mild Condition

5,711 (10%)
Serious or Critical
Show Graph



Show Statistics

Closed Cases

73,052

Cases which had an outcome:

68,335 (94%)
Recovered / Discharged

4,717 (6%)
Deaths
Show Graph

And now for the regular flu:

34,000,000 – 49,000,000
flu illnesses

person coughing icon

16,000,000 – 23,000,000
flu medical visits

doctor patient icon

350,000 – 620,000
flu hospitalizations

hospital room icon

20,000 – 52,000
flu deaths

flu virus icon


If people want to see the end of the world, they will. This is being politicized to hell and gone and it is going to bring about some new form of government agency which we will all be thankful for that will grind away a bit more freedom, and we will cheer as it happens. Sorry if I seem jaded, but I am jaded. We always say on this board, watch what the other hand is doing. Folks, we need to watch what the other hand is doing!
Demo motto: "Never wast a good crisis."
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Well, basketball season is canceled, and baseball season might be canceled. If so, there will be a number of sports fanatics chewing the carpet.

And that is a whole bunch of people looking for something else to focus their attention upon, like the election. This could get real interesting....
 

coalcracker

Veteran Member
Did you ever wonder why more Jewish people didn't leave Germany back in the 1930s?

They had to see it coming, and yet only a handful were willing to take the necessary action to leave the country. At one point, the German authorities would arrest you if you were a Jew boarding a train with luggage to escape to a border town.

Solution? You and your family had to set out on a picnic. No luggage. Just a small basket of food. You would then buy a ticket for a nearby destination. You got off the train and bought the next ticket for just a few miles down the line. Hours later, you'd buy your last ticket to the border town. It would be on foot to the border from there. Nazi soldiers would see your ticket and picnic basket, and they'd let you pass right onto the train. You were obviously just a local going on a picnic.

Inconvenient? Absolutely.

Costly? You had to leave ALL your stuff behind.

What's the point?

Looking back in history, it's easy to see that was the correct move, yet so many at the time chose not to do so.

They were attached to their lifestyles and possessions. "This won't be so bad," they told themselves. They were wrong - DEAD wrong.

Here in 2020, some of us are already taking inconvenient and costly actions to mitigate the dangers ahead. Others are happy just living life and hoping for the best.

Has the SHTF?

Yes, but it is a process rather than a single event. Years before Auschwitz there was Kristallnacht. Those years became the season of the SHTF for the Jews.

We are in that season now.
 
Last edited:

ChicagoMan74

ULTRA MAGA
I think it’s common knowledge now that while younger age brackets certainly fare better, they can still harbor the virus and spread it around as carriers. Dorm rooms are close quarters, and many professors are in the 60+ bracket. It was the prudent thing to do.
I cannot understand this line of reasoning. So instead...have them shack up at mom and dads. And they just won't stay in...but be out and about all over multiple communities instead of staying in their college community. I just don't see how that is prudent.
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
The herd is waking up now and I’m in a rural area. All the local radio stations are talking about it and people are confused as they don’t know what or who to believe. On one hand they are told this is just a little worse than common flu that only endangers the older people. But OTOH countries are shutting down, quarantines are being increased, the markets are plunging, colleges and schools are shutting down and now major sport leagues are shutting down their seasons.

Mixed messages and sheep, well...being sheep are waiting to be told what to do and sans that are nervously watching each other to see what others are doing. I made my weekly grocery run first thing this morning as soon as the store opened as is my regular habit and now I’m definitely seeing holes in stock that is unusual. Toilet paper and hand sanitizer hit hard. Stock boys are talking to each other about so many people buying toilet paper as they are afraid of getting sick.

As I went to the checkout the girl that is always working said to me that she was surprised I wasn’t buying toilet paper. She said that it was getting crazy with everyone buying TP. I played coy and asked her what was so surprising about people buying TP. She said one woman came a few days in a row and was filling her cart with multiple packs of TP. I told her that I hope she was buying food as well because if you don’t put anything in you don’t get anything out. :jstr:

There was still lower quality TP and sanitation wipes on the shelves but they were picked over pretty good. Holes in some of the canned goods, etc. The public’s programing over the years has gone well. They don’t think for themselves, they wait for the government and medical establishment to tell them what to do and lacking that they stare dumbly at each other. They all have Internet, they can research what we do, they can see markets crashing and see the toll in other countries and still sit back unable to think and make informed decisions.

And then to top it off on the way home I’m listening to the local ESPN affiliate talking about the NBA shutdown and they had a ‘expert’ doctor on that said a lot of this seemed to be over reacting as after all the virus wasn’t airborne. I guess this MD hasn‘t read anything coming out of China or even some of the studies coming out of the Lancet and JAMA which is indicating the opposite. His reasoning was nil, he was just blindly following the recommendations of the CDC.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
Did you ever wonder why more Jewish people didn't leave Germany back in the 1930s?



Has the SHTF?

Yes, but it is a process rather than a single event. Years before Auschwitz there was Kristallnacht. Those years became the season of the SHTF for the Jews.

We are in that season now.
Well, good luck. You are gonna have to go off-planet to run from this one.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
I cannot understand this line of reasoning. So instead...have them shack up at mom and dads. And they just won't stay in...but be out and about all over multiple communities instead of staying in their college community. I just don't see how that is prudent.
College/Universities are always a hacking, gacking mess...after Christmas break and after Spring break. Major sources of pestilence for their own, and the surrounding community. The move to close the physical schools makes HUGE sense.
 

Jubilee on Earth

Veteran Member
I cannot understand this line of reasoning. So instead...have them shack up at mom and dads. And they just won't stay in...but be out and about all over multiple communities instead of staying in their college community. I just don't see how that is prudent.

Liability, my friend. Liability. Better to shove them off at mom and dad's instead of keeping them in the dorms and risking lawsuits because they didn't take action.
 

Raffy

Veteran Member
Of the current 125,000 cases of the virus worldwide:

AGE​
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities


PRE-EXISTING CONDITION​
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
54,781


Currently Infected Patients

49,070 (90%)
in Mild Condition

5,711 (10%)
Serious or Critical
Show Graph



Show Statistics

Closed Cases

73,052

Cases which had an outcome:

68,335 (94%)
Recovered / Discharged

4,717 (6%)
Deaths
Show Graph

And now for the regular flu:

34,000,000 – 49,000,000
flu illnesses

person coughing icon

16,000,000 – 23,000,000
flu medical visits

doctor patient icon

350,000 – 620,000
flu hospitalizations

hospital room icon

20,000 – 52,000
flu deaths

flu virus icon


If people want to see the end of the world, they will. This is being politicized to hell and gone and it is going to bring about some new form of government agency which we will all be thankful for that will grind away a bit more freedom, and we will cheer as it happens. Sorry if I seem jaded, but I am jaded. We always say on this board, watch what the other hand is doing. Folks, we need to watch what the other hand is doing!

I'd like to add that the statistics given above for the flu are for cases within the USA, and don't include the rest of the world. The statistics given for the coronavirus are for the whole world.
 

Doat

Veteran Member
Not yet. But when the health care workers and public safety workers don't show up for work that will be the time. And IMO its time to consider hazard pay for these folks.
 

Jackpine Savage

Veteran Member
Here on the farm not so much. For some definitely yes.

My DW's career was in production lighting. She worked entertainment as well as industrial shows. All her friends on Faceborg are lamenting that their gigs are cancelling left and right. These people make good money, but from the sounds of it haven't saved any. The SHTF for some of them.
 

rhughe13

Heart of Dixie
I sort of felt sorry for the gal, but had to laugh at the same time.

The news this morning, said a gal had to postpone her wedding because her wedding gown and bridesmaid dresses she ordered were all made in China, and she didn't expect them to arrive in time. I doubt she knew this, as most places want to make a huge profit off China sales.
 

Sub-Zero

Veteran Member
This is the SHTF scenario. This is huge. The Pale Horse rides.

Hope everyone here makes it through this.

This is life altering. We actually don't even know all the facts about this virus.

Look how China has handled this, they may actually stop the spread in their country while not telling the rest of the world any details, and may quickly rise as the single super power when this is over.

Life on our planet will be different from now on.

The US will be drastically different in a short time.

Prepare your minds for the new shift that has started.

Be smart. Try not to stress as life as we know it drastically changes.

The calm and prepared mind wins.

Try to see yourself as surviving this and everything that comes with it.

We have no idea what happens tomorrow, next week, next month. Accept that everything will change.

Pray, Pray, Pray. Prayers are answered. Be specific. Believe and receive.

This is our SHTF scenario. This is our SHTF scenario. If you aren't thinking that already... get woke.


Personally, I have mentally accepted the fact that my $ in the markets is toast, so be it.
I have mentally accepted the fact that my $ in the banks is at risk of evaporating. Accepted mentally.
I am going to be in a rough mood about everything, but hope to look to my Savior and the Father to guide my footsteps.
Don't know what that will be. But know that I have a certain role.

Accept it. This is SHTF!
Nah, brah... nah. It'll be fine.

Besides, it ain't truly TEOTWAKI until gold and silver go up like a thousand percent, brah.
 

Freeholder

This too shall pass.
Those charts above? They show the older child/younger adult categories with a .2% death rate. That is twice the overall death rate from the flu (.1%, including the elderly). It may not be the Black Death, but it is certainly nothing to take lightly, even for the young and healthy. For those of us in the older categories, things could get rather grim. I’ve been making mental lists of family and friends who are at high risk....

Even without the economic effects, this would be bad. With them, it’s going to be very, very rough times for a lot of people. And it may lead to war. Do I think it’s the end of the world? No. But I suspect we are very near the beginning of the Tribulation. Now would be a really good time to make sure of your salvation by believing on Jesus Christ, if you haven’t already. As John the Baptist taught, repent and be baptized.

(By very near, I mean could start this year or next year, but very likely within a few years at least. No, I am not setting a day or an hour, but Jesus said we WOULD and SHOULD recognize the season.)

Kathleen
 

Sub-Zero

Veteran Member
Exactly.

That being said, I do have three months supply of le paper de toilette. I started this ramp up in purchasing about three weeks ago because I saw the herd moving. The reason doesn't matter, that it is happening, does. And, quite frankly, I like taking pictures of my stash and forwarding them to people I know in the medical profession to ask them, "Iz I preparred fer korona vyris now?" It usually sets them off on a Facebook tirade of memes. I like memes, but I don't like to do the work of searching them out. It's kind of a Tom Sawyer approach to the problem.

We are good on everything else.

When this fizzles out, I am hoping that the people who panicked will have lost all confidence in the media and be so torqued off that even more people vote for President Trump.

The most interesting part of this to me is that yes, the toilet paper shelves are bare, but there is plenty of food in every aisle, especially canned food.
 

Practical

Veteran Member
The 'it's just like the flu' folks are starting to look mentally challenged as the world turns everything off. We are dealing with a really bad virus and a lot of dominoes falling.

Btw, saying it's ok that my elderly family die is pretty psychopath. Especially with so many elderly , and with preexisting. Conditions, on this board. You really should think before you post
Where oh where did I even suggest that I think it is ok for someone to kick it, regardless of age group? People want to see doom and gloom, go for it. Want to shelter in your basement living on freeze dried, go for it. SARS was going to kill us all, it didn't. Bird flu was going to kill us all, it didn't. Swine flu, this is the end of us all! It wasn't. If this one is the for really really we are all going to die, I will come back and apologize. But something tells me that aside from a whole lot of new agencies, this too shall pass and we will all shelter in place for the next thing that is going to kill everyone. Why is not one single network talking about the actual recovery percentages of those who get it?
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
Where oh where did I even suggest that I think it is ok for someone to kick it, regardless of age group? People want to see doom and gloom, go for it. Want to shelter in your basement living on freeze dried, go for it. SARS was going to kill us all, it didn't. Bird flu was going to kill us all, it didn't. Swine flu, this is the end of us all! It wasn't. If this one is the for really really we are all going to die, I will come back and apologize. But something tells me that aside from a whole lot of new agencies, this too shall pass and we will all shelter in place for the next thing that is going to kill everyone. Why is not one single network talking about the actual recovery percentages of those who get it?

BECAUSE THEY DON'T KNOW THEM YET!

*recovery* from all but an extremely mild or asymptomatic case takes time... if it's anything like a bad flu, minimum of 4 weeks for healthy people to "get back to normal", and it's appearing that many will "recover", but have permanent lung, kidney or heart damage. Brand new virus, and the only country which has experienced it long enough to start providing some data such as you want have been lyi g through their teeth from the beginning.

Summerthyme
 

Sub-Zero

Veteran Member
The 'it's just like the flu' folks are starting to look mentally challenged as the world turns everything off. We are dealing with a really bad virus and a lot of dominoes falling.

Btw, saying it's ok that my elderly family die is pretty psychopath. Especially with so many elderly , and with preexisting. Conditions, on this board. You really should think before you post
He's just posting facts. Do you have a problem with facts?

And, we'll let hindsight determine who was mentally challenged during this time.
 

hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
For no good reason I looked at a few of the big bank stocks yesterday. All the ones I checked were down roughly 40%. How much lower can they go without repercussions?
 

Seeker22

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Germ laden paper money is easily made pure and wholesome with Lysol.

My wallet smells lemon fresh.

How does your change jar smell?

And to answer the OP's question? It isn't hitting the fan if you prepped the way you were supposed to. I was prepping before it became kewel. We called it laying in supplies and was just something you did as an adult functioning hooman. One who generally had pets and livestock to care for as well as ourselves.

Those who didn't reject this demon infested modernity are going to get creamed. Those who can make do or do without- not so much.

I am not making light of all the dying, just addressing the economic side. The dying and who does it when is far above my pay grade and can only be approached with prayer and tears.
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
The 'it's just like the flu' folks are starting to look mentally challenged as the world turns everything off. We are dealing with a really bad virus

Oh BS. People are reacting EMOTIONALLY rather than PRAGMATICALLY, which is exactly what the Deep State wants, because it hurts the country, the economy, and most of all Bad Orange Man.
 
Last edited:

mossyoak1985

Senior Member
i might have a unique perspective on this idk. i do not watch any tv or news. i stay away from almost everything political based on the constant attacks by the media. this shit started with fox and obama. i do not agree with the guy or like him, but fox went after him everyday for 8 years just like the rest are doing to trump. i got rid of cable and stopped watching news. the only news i see is on here, so i do not think my views are as clouded as most. if they are, i am pretty sure this site leans a bit to the right..

moving on. i have watched this for over 2 months. it has grown as predicted by doctors and scientists around the world. we have wondered why it was ignored by the media for a month, while china was locked down. nobody had a clue about this a month ago, other than a few people talking about it. i was concerned before i heard it went political. the first thing i saw posted was from tucker carlson, was he the first person to break the story here? if so, did he do it to hurt trump like everyone else?

i know how the animals in the media are, and i am sure since they became aware of it they are using everything they can find against trump. its pathetic but expected. but the problem was growing before those twats shifted from impeachment to the virus. i know that's what i saw.

i hope this fizzles out but the data behind it has too many holes to take lightly. ANY new virus is unknown. it may have traits that are predictable, but time is what it takes to KNOW how a virus works. i think the cfr will go down because most wont get tested due to mild symptoms, so i have some hope there.

as far as the economy, that might hurt for a bit. outsourced parts are in everything. everything will struggle for a time. until we have full ports and trucks lined up to haul it, we are in a risky place.

civil disruption is a concern. lots or reasons there. so end of the world? not yet, but i see life changing a bit. if this is a yearly thing that will make its way back around the world, all bets are off. every country is setting up how it will be handled next year if it comes back. if it is stronger next year after doing all this people will expect the same shutdowns and bailouts. if not we have alot of angry people, if so we eventually go bankrupt due to seasonal illness. so has the shtf? not yet, but maybe
 
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