WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

jward

jward

passin' thru
Don't want to sound alarmist, but IMO it's notable that at this time of US-China tension, 3 of China's largest/newest roll-on/roll-off civilian ferries appear to be off their normal routes and are in or have moved south toward the Taiwan Strait. All 3 are associated with the PLA.

The first of these ferries is the ZHONG HUA FU XING. Built in 2019, it's owned by the Bohai Ferry Group (as are all 3 ferries), which is organized as the 8th Transport Group of the PRC Maritime Militia. It was used to transport tanks in a 2021 exercise.


Video shows ship packed with Chinese tanks for 'future battlefield' in Taiwan | Taiwan News | 2021-10-18 12:48:00 Hundreds of tanks, assault vehicles shown inside 'big belly' of civilian RORO ship | 2021-10-18 12:48:00 Video shows ship packed with Chinese tanks for 'future battlefield' in Taiwan | Taiwan News | 2021-10-18 12:48:00

@mentions AIS data shows that this ferry left the Bohai Gulf after a port visit to Tianjin (near where it loaded tanks in 2021) and is now transiting southbound toward the northern approaches to the Taiwan Strait. Its destination is Shantou, across the Strait from S Taiwan. Image

ZHONG HUA FU XING appears to normally operate on a route between Dalian and Yantai (across the Yellow Sea), so this is a significant departure from its normal operating pattern. Image

Next up: BO HAI MA ZHU, another large Bohai Ferry vessel, built in 2015. It appears to have also departed its normal route between Dalian and Yantai, and is now down at Qingdao. Its specific location at Qingdao is not the normal ferry landing, it looks like a commercial port. Image Image Image Image

The 3rd ferry of interest is BO HAI ZUAN ZHU, also operated by Bohai Ferry and built in 2015. It appears to have loaded in Tianjin & is now in the Strait, headed for Guangou—near Shantou on the southern end of the Strait. It also normally operates between Dalian and Yantai. Image Image Image

So, what does this all mean? First, I think it's highly likely that these ferries ARE engaged in some sort of operation for the PLA, as they're way off their normal routes at the same time. It could be part of a long-planned exercise, or perhaps a reaction to recent events. ‍♂️

To be sure, these ferries alone cannot carry a large enough force to invade Taiwan itself, and the rest of China's ferries appear to be on their normal routes for now. But perhaps they could carry enough to assist in seizure of a smaller island. I guess we'll see...

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@tshugart3: Don't want to sound alarmist, but IMO it's notable that at this time of US-China tension, 3 of China's largest/newest roll-on/roll-off civilian ferries appear to be off their normal routes and are in or ...…
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Zoner said:
Details and maps are in the conversation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553406681710739459
View: https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1553406681710739459?s=20&t=I3FwQJ8T06YycJkcojY7sw
Click to expand...
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
hmm.

Doge
@IntelDoge
2h

#China's Global Times Hu Xijin in response to reports that Pelosi has begun a trip to Asia, including Taiwan, threatens "severe punishment actions" on Taiwan, says "the unbearable consequences" will fall on Taiwan's leadership.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
(No mention of Taiwan)


Pelosi to Lead Congressional Delegation to Indo-Pacific Region

July 31, 2022
Press Release
Washington, D.C. – Speaker Nancy Pelosi is leading a Congressional delegation to the Indo-Pacific region, including visits to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. The trip will focus on mutual security, economic partnership and democratic governance in the Indo-Pacific region.
“Today, our Congressional delegation travels to the Indo-Pacific to reaffirm America’s strong and unshakeable commitment to our allies and friends in the region,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi said. “In Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, our delegation will hold high-level meetings to discuss how we can further advance our shared interests and values, including peace and security, economic growth and trade, the COVID-19 pandemic, the climate crisis, human rights and democratic governance. Under the strong leadership of President Biden, America is firmly committed to smart, strategic engagement in the region, understanding that a free and flourishing Indo-Pacific is crucial to prosperity in our nation and around the globe.”
Speaker Pelosi continued, “After a fuel stop in Hawaii, we were honored with a briefing from USINDOPACOM Leadership, as well as a visit to the Pearl Harbor Memorial and the USS Arizona. Our Members paid our respects to the valiant Servicemembers who perished in the brutal attack on Pearl Harbor. Throughout our travels, we will continue to convey the endless gratitude of Congress and the Country for our brave U.S. Servicemembers stationed abroad, whose service makes the region and world more stable and safe.”
“It is my privilege as Speaker to lead this distinguished group of Members, which includes Chairs of Committees and Subcommittees of jurisdiction and champions of a strong U.S.-Asia Pacific partnership,” Speaker Pelosi said. “We look forward to productive meetings that will continue to inform Congress’s work to advance our values and interests and strengthen our partnerships in the region.”
The Members of the delegation are:
  • Speaker Nancy Pelosi
  • Chairman Gregory Meeks, Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee
  • Chairman Mark Takano, Chair of the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs
  • Congresswoman Suzan DelBene, Vice Chair, House Ways and Means Committee
  • Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, Member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; Chair of the Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform
  • Congressman Andy Kim, Member of the House Armed Services Committee; Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Points been made she went to Kiev and met Z man without announcement.
~~~~~~~~~~

Some suggest this is a bad translation and merely refers to those flights that we frequently post on/see China take around the outskirts of the island:
[URL='https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk'][URL='https://twitter.com/IntelDoge'][/URL][/URL]
~~~~~~~~~
First Squawk
@FirstSquawk


CHINA'S AIR FORCE IS FLYING TO THE ISLAND OF TAIWAN TO PROTECT THE NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF ITS COUNTRY - CHINESE AIR FORCE


12:49 AM · Jul 31, 2022·Twitter Web App
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
Chinese missile barrage in the Taiwan Strait: The "killers" of aircraft carriers DF-21 were deployed – Massive take-offs of fighters & helicopters (vid)
By Vassilis Kapoulas
31/07/2022 - 14:17
War News 24 / 7

Chinese missile barrage in the Taiwan Strait: The killers of aircraft carriers DF-21 were deployed – Massive take-offs of fighters & helicopters (vid)

The bases for a large-scale attack on Taiwan are being laid by the Chinese Army on the occasion of the possibility of a visit by N.Pelosi. Well-informed Chinese and Russian sources say the transfer of forces that have nothing to do with "a simple military exercise" has begun.

Nancy Pelosi's office revealed that she is expected to visit Singapore on August 1 for an American Chamber of Commerce event. It explicitly included Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan in its programme, but not Taiwan.

Chinese sources said they did not expect anything different at this stage. If pelosi's visit takes place, it will be done unannounced and will not be announced. Chinese troops will therefore remain on alert until the speaker of the House of Representatives finishes her journey.

Fighters took off – HQ-22 and MLRS were transferred

"PLA fighter jets started 24 hours ago to make exits around the island of Taiwan to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their country." This is what the official representative of the PLA-China Air Force Shen Jinke said.

At the same time, in The Fujian province of China next to Taiwan, arrays of the HQ-22 air defense system of the People's Liberation Army of China were found to be transported while the hypersonic ballistic missile DF-17 was launched.

Also transferred MLRS of 300-mm. Chinese amphibious forces perform landing simulations on beaches that resemble those of Taiwan

Missile barrage in the Taiwan Strait

The Chinese Army launched at least 50 missiles late at night towards the Taiwan Strait.

In particular, the inhabitants of the Fujian region were confronted with an unprecedented spectacle. The Chinese Army deployed heavy MLRS PHL-16 systems and launched missile attacks directed at the Taiwan Strait.

The MLRS PHL-16 is an analogue of the American HIMARS systems, however, they carry heavy guided missiles of 370 mm capable of hitting targets at distances of up to 220 kilometers, and according to some sources up to 500 kilometers.
It is worth noting that Taiwan is only 180 km away from this point, so it is within their range.

Chinese sources said that the missile strikes were given along the eastern part of the strait, while the blow was so massive that it could be observed from a distance of up to 80 kilometers

In the video frames presented, you can see the bombardment of the Taiwan Strait with Chinese PHL-16 systems. Judging by the video, at least 32 missiles were launched only from this direction.

According to Chinese experts, even 32 shots would be enough to make casualties in the combat team of the American aircraft carrier.

DF-21 ballistic systems were developed

Chinese missile forces put the hypersonic ballistic systems in full readiness.

Information indicates that against the backdrop of the appearance off the coast of China and Taiwan of the battle group of the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, China developed the hypersonic anti-ship systems DF-21.

According to Chinese sources, at least 18 ballistic systems that can destroy an entire aircraft carrier battle squad in just a few minutes have been deployed in the area.

At this time, it is known that 18 supersonic anti-ship systems DF-21 and DF-21D are in operational readiness for combat use. The latter are capable of causing high-precision blows over long distances. The flight speed of such a rocket exceeds 12 thousand km / h, and the accuracy of hitting a target reaches 10 meters.

Given the high flight speed of the DF-21D hypersonic missile, the probability of its successful interception is incredibly small.

At the moment, there is also information that China could put on full alert and DF-ZF missile systems, which are capable of hitting with heads flying at speeds of up to 12 MAX, which makes them non-stop by opposing air defenses.

The simultaneous take-off of 50 Chinese Z-10 and Z-19 helicopters

Against the backdrop of the extremely difficult situation around Taiwan, China is preparing for large-scale military operations against Taiwan.

The PLA proceeded to a simultaneous take-off of 27 Z-10 attack helicopters. Russian sources say that if the Chinese Army attacks with this volume of fire Taiwan will not last even 24 hours.

The 27 Z-10 attack helicopters took off from a single Chinese military base. The latter combine high flexibility and great firepower

At the same time, Z-19 attack helicopters of the 72nd Army Aviation Brigade of the Eastern Zone of the PLA Command (Taiwan and Taiwan Strait of Taiwan and Taiwan Strait) took off.

According to Chinese sources, the PLA took off a total of 50 helicopters of this type, which suggests that Beijing's intentions to prevent the visit of the speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan are very serious.


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Chinese missile barrage in the Taiwan Strait: The "killers" of aircraft carriers DF-21 were deployed - Massive take-offs of fighters & helicopters (vid) - WarNews247
 
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passin' thru
North Korea's Latest Threat Seen as Pretext for Nuclear Test
Christy Lee


Experts see a fiery speech this week by Kim Jong Un as a bid to cast an expected seventh nuclear test as a justifiable response to full-scale joint military drills by the U.S. and South Korea, which are set to resume within weeks.
In the speech Wednesday, marking the 69th anniversary of the armistice that brought the Korean War to an uneasy close, the North Korean leader said his nuclear arsenal was “fully ready” to demonstrate its power “promptly true to its mission.”
He blamed the U.S. for “instigating” South Korea and “openly waging large-scale joint war games, which gravely threaten the security of our state.” Kim said the military drills are driving North Korea-U.S. relations to “a point of fierce collision.”
The threat comes as the U.S. and South Korea have assessed that North Korea has completed its preparations for what would be a seventh nuclear test.
Military cooperation between Washington and Seoul, meanwhile, has intensified, with a resumption of joint military drills set for late August. The exercises were canceled or scaled back during the previous Moon Jae-in government to hopes of encouraging inter-Korean dialogue.

Justifying nuclear test on joint drills
Gary Samore, who served as White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction in the Obama administration, said it was “not unusual” for North Korea to threaten to use nuclear weapons against the U.S. and South Korea.
But Kim is making new threats now “because he’s preparing for the seventh nuclear test, and he will blame the U.S. and the ROK for holding military exercises that increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula and pose a threat to North Korean security,” Samore said, using the acronym for South Korea’s official name, the Republic of Korea.
Samore said Kim was portraying Washington-Seoul military cooperation as a threat “to justify his decision to carry out a nuclear test.”
The South Korean Defense Ministry announced on July 22 that Seoul would resume full-scale exercises with the U.S. involving live field training from August 22 to September 1. The exercises will include combined air carrier strike group training and amphibious operation drills.
VOA's Korean Service asked the North Korea Mission to the U.N. in New York City for a comment on the upcoming Seoul-Washington drills but did not receive a reply.

South Korean army soldiers prepare for an exercise at a training field in Paju, South Korea, near the border with North Korea, July 27, 2022.
Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said Kim criticized the resumption of joint drills “for escalating tensions and bringing the peninsula to the brink of war.” North Korea, he said, "again depicts itself as the aggrieved party rather than the violator of U.N. resolutions.”
Pyongyang conducted 18 rounds of weapons tests this year, including multiple launches of ballistic missiles in violation of U.N. resolutions.
Samore said Pyongyang’s portrayal of the nuclear test as a response to hostile acts by Washington and Seoul would also “give the Chinese and Russians an argument for not supporting any additional U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea.”

Warning against military expansion
In his speech, Kim also warned that his forces were prepared for “any kind of military clashes with the United States.” Naming South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol for the first time but without using his title, Kim blamed Yoon for “aggravating military tension.”
Evans Revere, a former State Department official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea, said Kim’s “direct attacks” on Yoon signaled his “rejection of Yoon’s North Korean initiative,” including his offer of major assistance in exchange for an end to Kim’s nuclear programs.

During his inauguration speech in May, Yoon said Seoul would offer an “audacious plan” to improve North Korea’s economy and people’s quality of life if Pyongyang began genuine denuclearization. Yoon’s office said Monday that the details of the plan were being discussed, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News.
Experts said further that Kim’s threat showed Pyongyang’s willingness to stand up to the Yoon government’s renewed alliance and military cooperation with the U.S.
Harry Kazianis, president of the Rogue States Project, said Kim’s threat showed North Korea was “willing to confront the U.S.-ROK alliance,” which may mean more nuclear and ICBM tests when the timing is right for the regime’s benefit.
Revere said, “Pyongyang needs to respond to the new ROK government’s tougher stance on South-North relations and Seoul’s reference to the ROK’s ‘kill chain strategy.’ ”
That strategy, developed a decade ago to deter North Korea’s nuclear development, involves launching preemptive strikes against Pyongyang’s missiles, key facilities and senior officials if Seoul ascertains an attack is imminent.
The South Korean Defense Ministry met with Yoon on July 6 and announced it would set up a strategic command by 2024 that directs preemptive strike strategies.

Also, under the Yoon government, the U.S. Army held live-fire drills using Apache helicopters stationed in South Korea from Monday through Friday for the first time since 2019. The training took place at the Rodriguez Live Fire Complex near the Demilitarized Zone dividing the North from the South.
And on July 5, the U.S. Air Force dispatched five F-35 stealth fighters from its Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska to South Korea and joined South Korea’s F-35s for a 10-day training, according to U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) spokesperson David Kim. The dispatch was the first publicly announced arrival of F-35s since 2017.
www.voanews.com

North Korea's Latest Threat Seen as Pretext for Nuclear Test

Kim Jong Un threatens to use nuclear weapons in conflict with US, South Korea during celebrations marking anniversary of cessation of Korean War
www.voanews.com www.voanews.com
 
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TB Fanatic
China To Pelosi: You Will 'Perish' Over Taiwan

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
SUNDAY, JUL 31, 2022 - 11:00 PM

Authored by Gordon Chang via 19fortyfive.com,

“The position of the Chinese government and people on the Taiwan question is consistent, and resolutely safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people,” Chinese ruler Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden during their phone call on July 28, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. “The public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it.”
“Perish”?



Xi’s dire-sounding warning, issued in connection with reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to go to Taiwan, suggests either that Xi Jinping perceives Biden to be so weak that he can push him around or that China’s internal problems are so severe that the Communist Party must create an external crisis to distract the Chinese people. In the worst case, both are true.

For about a decade, Chinese leaders have believed the United States has been in terminal decline, and their regime will soon ascend to global dominance.

Biden, at least in their minds, has confirmed this view.
His calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan and his failure to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Beijing thinking that it can now do what it wants to Taiwan.

At the same time, Xi’s threat could be the result of regime insecurity. He needs an external crisis so that the Chinese people won’t think too much about the internal ones. Inside China, coronavirus continues to infect the population, and Xi’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy is causing widespread resentment as well as undermining the ailing economy.
China’s economy, despite the report of 0.4% year-to-year growth in the second quarter, is almost certainly contracting.

At the same time, the debt crisis, delayed for more than a decade, has been hitting the country. Evergrande Group and other large property developers are defaulting on bond and other obligations, apartment projects remain unfinished, buyers of flats are participating in a nationwide “mortgage boycott” by not paying banks, the boycott has spread to suppliers of the developers, and financial institutions across the country are tight on cash. There are bank runs, especially in Henan province, but banks in the financial capital of Shanghai are also in poor condition.

Because property sales have plunged—the sales of the top 100 developers fell 50.3% in the first half of this year—local governments, dependent on property revenue, cannot meet obligations.

A Chinese entrepreneur this month told me that local cadres are trying to extort tens of millions of dollars from his firm. The fiscal problems at lower levels mirror those at the central government. Xi, under the banner of his “Common Prosperity” program, has been extracting tens of billions of dollars from tech giants such as Tencent and Alibaba.

Xi is also leading a nationwide mobilization effort, something signaled by the amendment of China’s National Defense Law, effective the beginning of last year, to transfer power from civilian to military officials, specifically from the central government’s State Council to the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission. The State Council will no longer supervise the mobilization of the People’s Liberation Army, which reports to the Party.

Although the Party has always been in control, the amendment contemplates the mass mobilization of society for war. Owners of private businesses are now being told to manufacture what the Party dictates, a move seen as building up stockpiles for conflict.

Many American analysts say that Speaker Pelosi is provoking a crisis with her reported plans to visit self-governing and democratic Taiwan, which Beijing claims is sovereign Chinese territory. That view is incorrect.

Xi Jinping needs no “provocation” from the Speaker to lash out. Currently, Chinese forces, already below the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, are preparing to take more Indian territory in the Himalayas. In June, Beijing renewed attempts to block resupply of a Philippine outpost at Second Thomas Shoal, in the South China Sea. In the East China Sea on July 29, four Chinese warships entered Japanese sovereign water around the disputed but Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands.

Furthermore, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley pointed out while in Sydney, “Chinese military activity is noticeably and statistically more aggressive than in previous years.” On May 26, for instance, a high-performance Chinese fighter jet accelerated and flew close to an Australian Royal Air Force P-8 reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace in the South China Sea region and released chaff, which was ingested into one of the P-8’s two engines. The Chinese jet also fired flares. This is believed to be the first time any military has used chaff and flares in this manner.

The Chinese defense ministry on July 28, in connection with Pelosi’s reported trip to Taiwan, stated “action is the most powerful language.” Chinese journalist Hu Xijin, who is often used to signal regime positions, on July 29 detailed the circumstances in which China’s military is prepared to bring down the Speaker’s plane.

There are no longer any safe options.
The most dangerous, at least in the long run, is for Speaker Pelosi to back down. By backing down, she will legitimize the most belligerent elements in the Chinese capital by showing everyone else that threats work.

This is now more than just a test of will.

China To Pelosi: You Will 'Perish' Over Taiwan | ZeroHedge
 
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TB Fanatic
jward said:
Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info


#BREAKING: Pelosi will visit #Taiwan flying from Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines on August 4 and will meet with President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei. Chinese media is reporting this based on info from Chinese intelligence. No confirmation from US sources.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553756624291917825

View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1553756624291917825?s=20&t=TOqD9MDSSccMr_ouQDoQ3Q
Click to expand...
Pelosi will visit #Taiwan flying from Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines on August 4 and will meet with President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei. Chinese media is reporting this based on info from Chinese intelligence. No confirmation from US sources.

If this be true, you will never get confirmation from US sources, I think the plan is to sneak Pelosi in and out.

The US will try all manner of deception to fool the Chinese.
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
northern watch said:
China To Pelosi: You Will 'Perish' Over Taiwan

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
SUNDAY, JUL 31, 2022 - 11:00 PM

Authored by Gordon Chang via 19fortyfive.com,

“The position of the Chinese government and people on the Taiwan question is consistent, and resolutely safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people,” Chinese ruler Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden during their phone call on July 28, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. “The public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it.”
“Perish”?



Xi’s dire-sounding warning, issued in connection with reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to go to Taiwan, suggests either that Xi Jinping perceives Biden to be so weak that he can push him around or that China’s internal problems are so severe that the Communist Party must create an external crisis to distract the Chinese people. In the worst case, both are true.

For about a decade, Chinese leaders have believed the United States has been in terminal decline, and their regime will soon ascend to global dominance.

Biden, at least in their minds, has confirmed this view.
His calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan and his failure to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Beijing thinking that it can now do what it wants to Taiwan.

At the same time, Xi’s threat could be the result of regime insecurity. He needs an external crisis so that the Chinese people won’t think too much about the internal ones. Inside China, coronavirus continues to infect the population, and Xi’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy is causing widespread resentment as well as undermining the ailing economy.
China’s economy, despite the report of 0.4% year-to-year growth in the second quarter, is almost certainly contracting.

At the same time, the debt crisis, delayed for more than a decade, has been hitting the country. Evergrande Group and other large property developers are defaulting on bond and other obligations, apartment projects remain unfinished, buyers of flats are participating in a nationwide “mortgage boycott” by not paying banks, the boycott has spread to suppliers of the developers, and financial institutions across the country are tight on cash. There are bank runs, especially in Henan province, but banks in the financial capital of Shanghai are also in poor condition.

Because property sales have plunged—the sales of the top 100 developers fell 50.3% in the first half of this year—local governments, dependent on property revenue, cannot meet obligations.

A Chinese entrepreneur this month told me that local cadres are trying to extort tens of millions of dollars from his firm. The fiscal problems at lower levels mirror those at the central government. Xi, under the banner of his “Common Prosperity” program, has been extracting tens of billions of dollars from tech giants such as Tencent and Alibaba.

Xi is also leading a nationwide mobilization effort, something signaled by the amendment of China’s National Defense Law, effective the beginning of last year, to transfer power from civilian to military officials, specifically from the central government’s State Council to the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission. The State Council will no longer supervise the mobilization of the People’s Liberation Army, which reports to the Party.

Although the Party has always been in control, the amendment contemplates the mass mobilization of society for war. Owners of private businesses are now being told to manufacture what the Party dictates, a move seen as building up stockpiles for conflict.

Many American analysts say that Speaker Pelosi is provoking a crisis with her reported plans to visit self-governing and democratic Taiwan, which Beijing claims is sovereign Chinese territory. That view is incorrect.

Xi Jinping needs no “provocation” from the Speaker to lash out. Currently, Chinese forces, already below the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, are preparing to take more Indian territory in the Himalayas. In June, Beijing renewed attempts to block resupply of a Philippine outpost at Second Thomas Shoal, in the South China Sea. In the East China Sea on July 29, four Chinese warships entered Japanese sovereign water around the disputed but Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands.

Furthermore, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley pointed out while in Sydney, “Chinese military activity is noticeably and statistically more aggressive than in previous years.” On May 26, for instance, a high-performance Chinese fighter jet accelerated and flew close to an Australian Royal Air Force P-8 reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace in the South China Sea region and released chaff, which was ingested into one of the P-8’s two engines. The Chinese jet also fired flares. This is believed to be the first time any military has used chaff and flares in this manner.

The Chinese defense ministry on July 28, in connection with Pelosi’s reported trip to Taiwan, stated “action is the most powerful language.” Chinese journalist Hu Xijin, who is often used to signal regime positions, on July 29 detailed the circumstances in which China’s military is prepared to bring down the Speaker’s plane.

There are no longer any safe options.
The most dangerous, at least in the long run, is for Speaker Pelosi to back down. By backing down, she will legitimize the most belligerent elements in the Chinese capital by showing everyone else that threats work.

This is now more than just a test of will.

China To Pelosi: You Will 'Perish' Over Taiwan | ZeroHedge
Click to expand...
At the same time, Xi’s threat could be the result of regime insecurity. He needs an external crisis so that the Chinese people won’t think too much about the internal ones. Inside China, coronavirus continues to infect the population, and Xi’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy is causing widespread resentment as well as undermining the ailing economy.
China’s economy, despite the report of 0.4% year-to-year growth in the second quarter, is almost certainly contracting.

From 5 Things to Start Your Day Bloomberg Asia Edition July 31 2022

China’s banks face mortgage losses of $350 billion in a worst-case scenario as confidence plunges in the nation’s property market and authorities struggle to contain deepening turmoil. A spiraling crisis of stalled projects has dented the confidence of hundreds of thousands of homebuyers, triggering a mortgage boycott across more than 90 cities.

Meanwhile China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted in July, reversing earlier economic momentum as sporadic Covid outbreaks weigh on the recovery, and real estate giant China Evergrande — the world’s most indebted developer — failed to deliver a “preliminary restructuring plan” it had promised by the end of July.

Maybe the plan is for Pelosi to give a pretext to the Chinese to start a war?
 
Last edited:
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
Pelosi lands in Singapore to kick off Asia tour
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has arrived in Singapore, kicking off her Asian tour as questions swirled over a possible stop in Taiwan that has fueled tension with Beijing
By EILEEN NG and ZEN SOO Associated Press
August 01, 2022, 1:00 AM

Nancy Pelosi

FILE - Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speaks during a news conference Friday, July 29, 2022, at the Capitol in Washington. Pelosi arrived in Singapore early Monday, kicking off her Asian tour as questions swirled over a possible stop in Taiwan that has fueled tension with Beijing. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)
The Associated Press

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia -- U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Singapore early Monday, kicking off her Asian tour as questions swirled over a possible stop in Taiwan that has fueled tension with Beijing.

A person familiar with the matter confirmed that Pelosi and her delegation landed in the city-state before dawn. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to release details to the media.

Pelosi will call on Singapore President Halimah Yacob and Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, and meet with a number of Cabinet Ministers, said a spokesperson for Singapore’s foreign ministry.

She is also expected to attend a cocktail reception with the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore. There is no media access to her visit, which has been kept under tight wraps.

In a statement over the weekend, Pelosi said she will also visit Malaysia, South Korea and Japan to discuss trade, the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, security and “democratic governance.”

She didn't confirm news reports that she might visit Taiwan, which is claimed by Beijing as its own territory. Chinese President Xi Jinping warned against meddling in Beijing’s dealings with the island in a phone call last week with his American counterpart, Joe Biden.

Beijing sees official American contact with Taiwan as encouragement to make its decades-old de facto independence permanent, a step U.S. leaders say they don’t support. Pelosi, head of one of three branches of the U.S. government, would be the highest-ranking elected American official to visit Taiwan since then-Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1997.

The Biden administration has tried to assure Beijing there was no reason to “come to blows” and that if such a visit occurred, it would signal no change in U.S. policy.

Taiwan and China split in 1949 after the communists won a civil war on the mainland. Both sides say they are one country but disagree over which government is entitled to national leadership. They have no official relations but are linked by billions of dollars of trade and investment.

The United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, but maintains informal relations with the island. Washington is obligated by federal law to see that Taiwan has the means to defend itself.

Washington’s “One China policy” says it takes no position on the status of the two sides but wants their dispute resolved peacefully. Beijing promotes an alternative “One China principle” that says they are one country and the Communist Party is its leader.

A visit to Taiwan would be a career capstone for Pelosi, who increasingly uses her position in Congress as a U.S. emissary on the global stage. She has long challenged China on human rights and wanted to visit Taiwan earlier this year.

Pelosi's delegation includes U.S. Reps. Gregory Meeks, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee; Mark Takano, chairman of the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs; Suzan DelBene, vice chair of the House Ways and Means Committee; Raja Krishnamoorthi, a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and chair of the Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform; and Andy Kim, a member of the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees.

———

Soo reported from Hong Kong.

Pelosi lands in Singapore to kick off Asia tour - ABC News (go.com)
 
Cowgirl4christ

Cowgirl4christ

Senior Member
I still don’t understand the mortgage industry in China. It takes a lot of hoop jumping in order to be allowed to purchase an apartment. I never understood the rules for ownership. Almost every student had never seen a house except for the ones I showed out my back door. Virtually all Chinese rent their apartments. I saw so many apartment buildings being built (cranes on building tops), it was crazy. All my student’s families rented apartments and they were they ones with $$ to spend on English lessons. Most parents couldn’t afford English lessons. I taught about three students where I thought they might have had actual homes (they were lavish) and my SIL told me about one of her students who said he had 3 homes (however if a child reported a second home, it easily could have been their grandparents home that they were referring to.) That said, I’d very curious about the mortgage collapse. Who owns all these mortgages? Apartment building owners? I’m genuinely curious as to who they are.
 
Cowgirl4christ

Cowgirl4christ

Senior Member
jward said:
8:55 PM

Monday, August 1, 2022 (GMT+8)
Time in Taiwan


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


[URL='https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts']


Instant News Alerts
@InstaNewsAlerts[/URL]
2h

#BREAKING: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan during her Asia trip, despite warnings from Biden officials worried about China's response. (CNN)
Click to expand...

Once again, I have to wonder if Pelosi will actually be on the plane? This crazy game of chicken is once again drawing us close to something very dire happening. And then we have these NY PSAs. Wow. Which way do we look? What aren’t we supposed to look AT? Left hand? Right hand?
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
'US Military Moving Assets', Markets Stall On Reports Pelosi To Visit Taiwan Tuesday

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 - 09:01 AM

US equity markets are accelerating their losses suddenly this morning (after briefly touching unchanged from overnight weakness) following headlines that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reportedly expected to land in Taiwan on Tuesday night.

Liberty Times reports, citing people familiar with the matter, Pelosi plans to visit the Legislative Yuan and meet lawmakers on Wednesday.



However, the US and Taiwan are still preparing for last minute changes, the paper adds.

Futures were sliding already but the Pelosi headlines pushed them to overnight lows...

2022-08-01_05-55-06.jpg



Bonds are bid with 10Y Yields tumbling back to unchanged...



The offshore Yuan also tumbled on the report...



Interestingly, crude prices are notably lower (after disappointing China PMIs) and are accelerating lower after the Pelosi-Taiwan headlines...



China meanwhile Monday once again warned its military is prepared to take action if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi follows through on a landmark visit to Taiwan.

According to her published itinerary, which does not as yet name Taiwan - this could see her flying to Taiwan after her delegation visits Malaysia and just ahead of going to South Korea.

Amid Chinese PLA drills ongoing in regional waters, and with the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group also in the South China Sea, Nikkei writes that "The U.S. military is moving assets, including aircraft carriers and large planes, closer to Taiwan ahead of an anticipated but unconfirmed visit to the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi."

The PLA military also on Monday issued a fresh propaganda video saying essentially 'we're ready for war' - consistent with prior messages circulating on official Chinese military channels...

As FT notes additionally of PLA muscle-flexing as a warning to Pelosi: "China’s PLA also on Saturday carried out live-fire exercises in Pintang, a coastal area in south-eastern Fujian province about 125km from Taiwan. State media also broadcast footage of a Chinese destroyer firing its weapons in the South China Sea, through which the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group is believed to be sailing after visiting Singapore."

'US Military Moving Assets', Markets Stall On Reports Pelosi To Visit Taiwan Tuesday | ZeroHedge
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Pelosi to Go Ahead With Taiwan Visit; U.S. House speaker plans meetings with Taipei officials, raising prospect of increased tensions with Beijing

Monday, August 1, 2022, 9:34 AM ET
By Wenxin Fan in Hong Kong and Joyu Wang in Taipei
Wall Street Journal

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is planning to visit Taiwan, with meetings scheduled with government officials on the self-ruled island that China claims as its own, according to a person familiar with the matter, raising the prospect of increased tensions between the U.S. and China.

People whom Mrs. Pelosi is planning to meet with in Taiwan have been informed of her imminent arrival, this person said, though some details remain in flux. Some of Ms. Pelosi’s meetings have been scheduled for Tuesday evening, but most are set for Wednesday, the person said, adding that they include, but aren’t limited to, Taiwanese government officials.

“She’s definitely coming,” the person said. “The only variable is whether she spends the night in Taipei.”

The trip is almost certain to anger Beijing, which has warned against a Taiwan visit by Mrs. Pelosi and threatened unspecified countermeasures should the visit take place.

Mrs. Pelosi arrived in Singapore on Monday to begin her closely watched Asia tour as China, marking the anniversary of the founding of its military, staged exercises near the island.

On Monday, Mrs. Pelosi and four other Democratic members of Congress met with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who hailed the importance of stable U.S.-China relations for regional peace and security, according to a statement by Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Mrs. Pelosi then appeared at a closed-door reception with the American business community. Mrs. Pelosi didn’t respond to questions outside the venue.

The delegation’s trip includes high-level meetings in Malaysia, Japan and South Korea, according to a statement issued by Mrs. Pelosi’s office on Sunday. The announcement didn’t mention Taiwan.

Even so, China’s Foreign Ministry on Monday repeated earlier threats warning Mrs. Pelosi against stopping over in Taiwan.

Spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a regular daily briefing that China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, “will not sit idly by” if Mrs. Pelosi were to make the visit. He didn’t elaborate on what actions China might take.

In a phone call last week between the Chinese and American leaders, Xi Jinping told President Biden that China would safeguard national sovereignty, describing it as “the unbending will of 1.4 billion Chinese people.” “Those who play with fire will perish by it,” Mr. Zhao said last week in his readout of the phone call.

Mr. Biden, for his part, told the Chinese leader that U.S. policy on Taiwan hasn’t changed and that Washington opposes unilateral changes to the status quo.

A potential stop in Taiwan by Mrs. Pelosi’s delegation has discomfited the Biden administration. Should Mrs. Pelosi’s delegation forgo a stop there, Republican lawmakers are poised to criticize the Democrats for backing down, but if she does go ahead with the visit, the already sharp tensions between China and the U.S. are expected to escalate further.

Beijing claims Taiwan as Chinese territory and has vowed to use force to take the democratically governed island, a longstanding U.S. partner.

Mrs. Pelosi’s arrival in Asia coincides with the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. While ceremonial speeches by Mr. Xi and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe offered general words of endorsement for military modernization, China also spoke through other military events tied to the anniversary.

On Saturday, China’s state broadcaster showed footage of a Chinese navy fleet firing weapons in the South China Sea, one of the several live-fire drills conducted in the region in the past week, as the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier headed toward the waters. One of the Chinese military drills was conducted in the waters near Pingtan, an area off the coast of Fujian province opposite Taiwan.

The training will continue until at least Wednesday, according to official announcements posted on the website of China’s maritime-safety authorities.

On Sunday, Chinese Air Force spokesperson Shen Jinke explicitly highlighted the capability of Chinese warplanes and said they had made flights around the island of Taiwan, a demonstration of the PLA’s enhanced capabilities.

In 1997, then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich traveled to Taiwan after a high-profile visit to the mainland. The plan initially irritated Chinese authorities, who threatened military action.

But the visit to Taipei eventually went through after Mr. Gingrich agreed to China’s condition that he fly first to Tokyo from Beijing before going to Taipei.

While the priority for Chinese leaders at that time was a smooth handover of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty, the stakes this time are much higher for Beijing and for Mr. Xi in particular. Having cemented his authority over the past decade, he is poised to break with recent precedent and secure a third term in power at a Communist Party congress set for later this year.

Meanwhile, in Taipei on Monday, Taiwanese Premier Su Tseng-chang didn’t offer a direct reply when asked if the self-ruled island was preparing for a visit by Mrs. Pelosi.

“We always extend a warm welcome to distinguished foreign guests who visit our country,” he said. “We of course respect the visitors’ own planning.”

In Seoul, the office of Kim Jin-pyo, the speaker of South Korea’s legislature, said that he would meet with Mrs. Pelosi on Thursday to discuss regional security, economic cooperation and other issues.

Write to Wenxin Fan at Wenxin.Fan@wsj.com and Joyu Wang at joyu.wang@wsj.com

Pelosi to Go Ahead With Taiwan Visit - WSJ
 
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