DISASTER China's Three Gorge Dam in Danger

DannyBoy

DannyBoy

Veteran Member
Donghe Surfer said:
so, good, bad, or ugly? (or unknown)?
Click to expand...
not really sure... looking at it now, half a day later, and it looks just fine from the spillway angle. Kind of strange music playing. I would expect that someone is standing next to the camera playing music? The water is flowing gently by. and like I said, the level is much lower than it has been. Of course there are no gates dumping water at this point either.
 
Walrus Whisperer

Walrus Whisperer

Hope in chains...
Dang phone throws them up, I can't watch youtubes so I swipe thm off and then go look here.... It looked like somebody was saying it's prolly finito. No posts since last nite, but the acres of floating garbage tells me that that stuff is coming probably from underneath. It isn't coming from over the top!
 
TheSearcher

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
Walrus Whisperer said:
Dang phone throws them up, I can't watch youtubes so I swipe thm off and then go look here.... It looked like somebody was saying it's prolly finito. No posts since last nite, but the acres of floating garbage tells me that that stuff is coming probably from underneath. It isn't coming from over the top!
Click to expand...

Thanks.
 
Burrito

Burrito

Veteran Member
Walrus Whisperer said:
Dang phone throws them up, I can't watch youtubes so I swipe thm off and then go look here.... It looked like somebody was saying it's prolly finito. No posts since last nite, but the acres of floating garbage tells me that that stuff is coming probably from underneath. It isn't coming from over the top!
Click to expand...
Good grief. As bw stated that view is on the lake side and not acres of floating garbage on the outflow side of the dam. Re freakn lax.
 
DannyBoy

DannyBoy

Veteran Member
Capture.JPG

Hail?? Just tuned in to catch the latest view... 10 pm local time... I would swear it sounded like hail falling... it did that for maybe five minutes, now is slowing down. Could not see it in the video, but it is viewing several hundred feet away. Wonder what the weather is really. I hear some voices in the background now, but pretty sure for a while it was hailing. Still getting a couple clinks now and then.
 
Trivium Pursuit

Trivium Pursuit

Has No Life - Lives on TB
DannyBoy said:
View attachment 222235

Hail?? Just tuned in to catch the latest view... 10 pm local time... I would swear it sounded like hail falling... it did that for maybe five minutes, now is slowing down. Could not see it in the video, but it is viewing several hundred feet away. Wonder what the weather is really. I hear some voices in the background now, but pretty sure for a while it was hailing. Still getting a couple clinks now and then.
Click to expand...
They've had everything else happen to them in China; actual hail would not surprise me one bit.
 
ShadowMan

ShadowMan

Designated Grumpy Old Fart
1d334575596e8d86f138dbeac3b7fe668a25111231408bfc280aeb3aac8146a4.jpg
 
Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
You know there are a few "regular" posters on this thread that when I see their names I wonder if I should even bother to open the link.

If you are not interested in this on-going story, please just leave it alone for now OK? I'm sure we will start a new thread or update the title if something drastically changes.

As it is, the dam either will or it won't make it until after the unusual monsoon season is finally over and even then five years from now someone may drag this thread out of the archives or start a new with:

"It's gone"

No one knows for sure the future on this one, but I consider the fact that at the first signs the dam was in trouble the designer died mysteriously, possibly by suicide, speaks volumes.

Perhaps the Chinese will get lucky, for now...but that could make for a much worse outcome later...
 
Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Melodi said:
You know there are a few "regular" posters on this thread that when I see their names I wonder if I should even bother to open the link.

If you are not interested in this on-going story, please just leave it alone for now OK? I'm sure we will start a new thread or update the title if something drastically changes.

As it is, the dam either will or it won't make it until after the unusual monsoon season is finally over and even then five years from now someone may drag this thread out of the archives or start a new with:

"It's gone"

No one knows for sure the future on this one, but I consider the fact that at the first signs the dam was in trouble the designer died mysteriously, possibly by suicide, speaks volumes.

Perhaps the Chinese will get lucky, for now...but that could make for a much worse outcome later...
Click to expand...


THANK you.

That's why I stopped posting--too many smarty-pants. Made me feel like I was on Tree of Liberty again (which went to pieces due to letting the snot-nosed bullies take over).

As you say, if it goes, it goes. There seem to be some with an agenda that IT IS SAFE who want to discount any possible evidence to the contrary, and others who are of the more sarcastic camp that "If it hasn't fallen yet, it never will, and those of you who think it will are drama queens", etc.

But given what more knowledgeable heads have written here about erosion under the dam (cavitattion) and past examples they've given--

--and given what evidence has been presented IF you go back and follow this FROM THE BEGINNING (rather than as an 11th - hour drop-in to the party)

It is obvious that all is not well with the dam, that it was built with "corners cut" form the beginning, and that the Chinese have been EXTREMELY lucky that it hasn't failed already.

Whether it WILL hold through this MAD season of flooding is known only to God--

But I wish the naysayers wouldn't snipe at those of us who've been carefully watching this from the start and believe there is reason to be concerned.

So--again--thank you.
 
D

desertvet2

Veteran Member
I will say this for the chinese, they have done what no one else has done...so far.

Unless of course waaay back when, the big dam at the headwaters of the grand canyon.....
 
Ractivist

Ractivist

Pride comes before the fall.....Pride month ended.
O
desertvet2 said:
I will say this for the chinese, they have done what no one else has done...so far.

Unless of course waaay back when, the big dam at the headwaters of the grand canyon.....
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Only God knows for sure.

I would hate to be informed and live nearby, down stream. Living nightmare. Can’t imagine the next flood event.
 
Burrito

Burrito

Veteran Member
Countrymouse said:
It is obvious that all is not well with the dam, that it was built with "corners cut" form the beginning, and that the Chinese have been EXTREMELY lucky that it hasn't failed already.

Whether it WILL hold through this MAD season of flooding is known only to God--

But I wish the naysayers wouldn't snipe at those of us who've been carefully watching this from the start and believe there is reason to be concerned.
Click to expand...
Hope you understand that there is a big difference between a naysayer and someone that is simply pointing out errors in another persons post. The only post that actually mentioned cavitation possibly happening was from a commenter on the "live" video feed on YouTube. I'm not saying the dam wasn't/isn't in danger, I'm simply trying to stomp out the hair on fire posts.

Remember that others on this board get frustrated from posts that tend to be based on emotions with little to no real information. This thread is filled with the sky is falling posts, and very little real information.

The CCP will NEVER let there be a live streaming video of the damn if there is a hint of possible failure. They must save face and control what people see.

You kinda make yourself a target for getting sniped at sometimes. You tend to be very emotional in your posts.
 
TheSearcher

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
Burrito said:
Hope you understand that there is a big difference between a naysayer and someone that is simply pointing out errors in another persons post. The only post that actually mentioned cavitation possibly happening was from a commenter on the "live" video feed on YouTube. I'm not saying the dam wasn't/isn't in danger, I'm simply trying to stomp out the hair on fire posts.

Remember that others on this board get frustrated from posts that tend to be based on emotions with little to no real information. This thread is filled with the sky is falling posts, and very little real information.

The CCP will NEVER let there be a live streaming video of the damn if there is a hint of possible failure. They must save face and control what people see.

You kinda make yourself a target for getting sniped at sometimes. You tend to be very emotional in your posts.
Click to expand...

Personally, I like you Burrito, but I don't know why you feel like you need to tamp down the thread. Yes, sometimes there is speculation, even angst here.

People are wondering what's going to happen, and if what we expect to happen does indeed happen, it's going to have global ramifications.

So if people get their doom on and start brainstorming, it isn't necessarily a bad thing IMHO.
 
Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Burrito said:
Hope you understand that there is a big difference between a naysayer and someone that is simply pointing out errors in another persons post. The only post that actually mentioned cavitation possibly happening was from a commenter on the "live" video feed on YouTube. I'm not saying the dam wasn't/isn't in danger, I'm simply trying to stomp out the hair on fire posts.

Remember that others on this board get frustrated from posts that tend to be based on emotions with little to no real information. This thread is filled with the sky is falling posts, and very little real information.

The CCP will NEVER let there be a live streaming video of the damn if there is a hint of possible failure. They must save face and control what people see.

You kinda make yourself a target for getting sniped at sometimes. You tend to be very emotional in your posts.
Click to expand...


The information I've posted has been mostly videos and screen shots. If people can't believe what they see---what am I supposed to say to that? I admit I find that level of denial fascinating--but then "normalcy-bias" rules, I guess.

I have no knowledge of dam construction, but several here have. There have been many posts on what cavitation can do to a dam, and on what the signs of cavitation are---and we were "seeing" (for those who looked at the pictures) a good many signs of indeed the very cavitation those more knowledgeable folks told us to expect---right before the CCP CLOSED DOWN the video--and when they re-opened it---well, lo and behold---no close-up views anymore (so you can't see details as well anymore).

Plus I noted ( and most ignored) proof of the very thing you said in your post above -- (quoting: "The CCP will NEVER let there be a live streaming video of the damn if there is a hint of possible failure. They must save face and control what people see.")--that to accomplish the very thing you've noted above, the CCP has changed the time stamp of the video at the time we all started seeing signs of cavitation (this was a little prior to their shutting it down). The time zone the dam is in is exactly 12 hours opposite my own (in Eastern Daylight Time). The time on the live feed and the actual time here were in perfect sync-- until we started to see cavitation signs. It was at that time a 1-minute DELAY was put in place on the live feed. Since then, the live feed has been down several times--and I note they are always at times when new pressure is being put on the dam from upstream flooding reaching the dam.

The above are FACTS.

As for emotions--

If this thing fails, here are some consequences:
1. MILLIONS of Chinese will die.
2. It could, probably will, greatly impact the Chinese economy.
3. Which will in turn greatly impact the US economy.
4. There are several nuclear plants downstream of Three Gorges.
5. Simulations of the the dam failing have shown the extensive damage would affect those facilites.
6. Given that 2+2 still = 4, then what we saw happen after Fukushima should not require me explaining to anyone what it would mean--not just for China, but for the world--if one or more of those nuclear plants are destroyed and go critical, in terms of worldwide radioactive fallout.

Now if none of the above moves you at all---if you can look at those possiblities and NOT feel the teenist bit concerned---I would check whether your "give a hoot" meter is set too low.

I have noticed that some here like to take a very sardonic or sarcastic view of everything--to the point that they don't ever believe a disaster is going to happen until it's upon them--and often even when it happens they're the first to question or deny it until the proof that it is real becomes incontrovertible. I'm sure what they tell themselves is how "objective" or "scientific" they are being, and congratulate themselves on their superiority for having such a "cool head." Rather like the officers on the Titanic who discounted weather reports of icebergs in the area, or the military commanders who ignored the lowly radar-operator's notice of what looked to him like "multiple aircraft" headed toward Japan on December 7 (you might want to read the article at https:// www.dispatch.com/article/20100225/news/302259665 opening words are "Don't worry about it.")

I've seen more troubles come about because people pridefully IGNORED signs of danger, all my life, than has come from anyone engaged in cautious, watchful, careful observation.

If it bothers you that we do this--if such cautious, watchful, careful observation is merely "emotionalism" to you---then perhaps if you avoid the thread you won't be bothered by my "emotionalism."

But your skepticism doesn't faze me---it merely reminds me of an old saw by a pastor I once heard describing the differences between men and women:

"A woman gets worried when she sees a crack in the roof.
A man gets worried when the roof falls in."

May you be safe in all future roof collapses.

Pax.
 
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Trivium Pursuit

Trivium Pursuit

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Countrymouse said:
The information I've posted has been mostly videos and screen shots. If people can't believe what they see---what am I supposed to say to that? I admit I find that level of denial fascinating--but then "normalcy-bias" rules, I guess.

I have no knowledge of dam construction, but several here have. There have been many posts on what cavitation can do to a dam, and on what the signs of cavitation are---and we were "seeing" (for those who looked at the pictures) a good many signs of indeed the very cavitation those more knowledgeable folks told us to expect---right before the CCP CLOSED DOWN the video--and when they re-opened it---well, lo and behold---no close-up views anymore (so you can't see details as well anymore).

Plus I noted ( and most ignored) proof of the very thing you said in your post above -- (quoting: "The CCP will NEVER let there be a live streaming video of the damn if there is a hint of possible failure. They must save face and control what people see.")--that to accomplish the very thing you've noted above, the CCP has changed the time stamp of the video at the time we all started seeing signs of cavitation (this was a little prior to their shutting it down). The time zone the dam is in is exactly 12 hours opposite my own (in Eastern Daylight Time). The time on the live feed and the actual time here were in perfect sync-- until we started to see cavitation signs. It was at that time a 1-minute DELAY was put in place on the live feed. Since then, the live feed has been down several times--and I note they are always at times when new pressure is being put on the dam from upstream flooding reaching the dam.

The above are FACTS.

As for emotions--

If this thing fails, here are some consequences:
1. MILLIONS of Chinese will die.
2. It could, probably will, greatly impact the Chinese economy.
3. Which will in turn greatly impact the US economy.
4. There are several nuclear plants downstream of Three Gorges.
5. Simulations of the the dam failing have shown the extensive damage would affect those facilites.
6. Given that 2+2 still = 4, then what we saw happen after Fukushima should not require me explaining to anyone what it would mean--not just for China, but for the world--if one or more of those nuclear plants are destroyed and go critical, in terms of worldwide radioactive fallout.

Now if none of the above moves you at all---if you can look at those possiblities and NOT feel the teenist bit concerned---I would check whether your "give a hoot" meter is set too low.

I have noticed that some here like to take a very sardonic or sarcastic view of everything--to the point that they don't ever believe a disaster is going to happen until it's upon them--and often even when it happens they're the first to question or deny it until the proof that it is real becomes incontrovertible. I'm sure what they tell themselves is how "objective" or "scientific" they are being, and congratulate themselves on their superiority for having such a "cool head." Rather like the officers on the Titanic who discounted weather reports of icebergs in the area, or the military commanders who ignored the lowly radar-operator's notice of what looked to him like "multiple aircraft" headed toward Japan on December 7 (you might want to read the article at https:// www.dispatch.com/article/20100225/news/302259665 opening words are "Don't worry about it.")

I've seen more troubles come about because people pridefully IGNORED signs of danger, all my life, than has come from anyone engaged in cautious, watchful, careful observation.

If it bothers you that we do this--if such cautious, watchful, careful observation is merely "emotionalism" to you---then perhaps if you avoid the thread you won't be bothered by my "emotionalism."

But your skepticism doesn't faze me---it merely reminds me of an old saw by a pastor I once heard describing the differences between men and women:

"A woman gets worried when she sees a crack in the roof.
A man gets worried when the roof falls in."

May you be safe in all future roof collapses.

Pax.
Click to expand...
Pax to you, Countrymouse! The Internet comes littered with crackpots and morons. Unfortunately we have a few here. Rest assured that when you talk about something important, a few of them will pop out. Ignoring them = not feeding them. The solid people on here know what a treasure you are. And everyone with at least half a clue knows what a seismic event the collapse of this dam would be for the entire planet. Keep up the good work.
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
Oreally said:
if the dam holds, then the CCP can advertise it as a "400 year flood dam" and be telling the truth!!!!
Click to expand...

Even if it doesn't break catastrophically, it's apparently been heavily damaged. We'll have to see how they approach repairs, and how open they are about them.
 
DannyBoy

DannyBoy

Veteran Member
Well, after the discussion above, not sure if this is desired info or not... but I thought it was interesting. This is the first time, since I have been watching the dam at least, that there have been folks fishing on the water in front of the downstream camera. They are indeed fishing, you can see them casting using fishing poles. Early (6:30) in the morning there...3gdam. 9-28-20-manonrocks-fishing2.JPG
3gdam. 9-28-20-manonrocks3.JPG

The water is relatively low still, that stairs on the left is still showing.
 
DannyBoy

DannyBoy

Veteran Member
So, I poked around on google earth and google maps... came up with this observation/revelation... that downstream viewing of the spillway is not on the east side of the channel as I had thought all along... since the camera has been repositioned, it is now obvious that it is on the west back ("right descending bank" if you are a mariner), because the current is flowing left to right. The earlier miss-positioning of the camera showed a kind of park area to its left, where observers visited a large viewing area (remember the folks taking pics and selfies?) I am convinced now that what we were looking at is the circular area on that corner to the left of my arrows. I think the camera is somewhere in the area shown by the arrows.

For what it is worth... if the camera happens to be up if indeed the dam does fail, it might be nice to know where the camera is.3gorges viewing1.JPG

3gorges viewing2.JPG
 
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Old Greek

Old Greek

Veteran Member
Countrymouse said:
The information I've posted has been mostly videos and screen shots. If people can't believe what they see---what am I supposed to say to that? I admit I find that level of denial fascinating--but then "normalcy-bias" rules, I guess.

I have no knowledge of dam construction, but several here have. There have been many posts on what cavitation can do to a dam, and on what the signs of cavitation are---and we were "seeing" (for those who looked at the pictures) a good many signs of indeed the very cavitation those more knowledgeable folks told us to expect---right before the CCP CLOSED DOWN the video--and when they re-opened it---well, lo and behold---no close-up views anymore (so you can't see details as well anymore).

Plus I noted ( and most ignored) proof of the very thing you said in your post above -- (quoting: "The CCP will NEVER let there be a live streaming video of the damn if there is a hint of possible failure. They must save face and control what people see.")--that to accomplish the very thing you've noted above, the CCP has changed the time stamp of the video at the time we all started seeing signs of cavitation (this was a little prior to their shutting it down). The time zone the dam is in is exactly 12 hours opposite my own (in Eastern Daylight Time). The time on the live feed and the actual time here were in perfect sync-- until we started to see cavitation signs. It was at that time a 1-minute DELAY was put in place on the live feed. Since then, the live feed has been down several times--and I note they are always at times when new pressure is being put on the dam from upstream flooding reaching the dam.

The above are FACTS.

As for emotions--

If this thing fails, here are some consequences:
1. MILLIONS of Chinese will die.
2. It could, probably will, greatly impact the Chinese economy.
3. Which will in turn greatly impact the US economy.
4. There are several nuclear plants downstream of Three Gorges.
5. Simulations of the the dam failing have shown the extensive damage would affect those facilites.
6. Given that 2+2 still = 4, then what we saw happen after Fukushima should not require me explaining to anyone what it would mean--not just for China, but for the world--if one or more of those nuclear plants are destroyed and go critical, in terms of worldwide radioactive fallout.

Now if none of the above moves you at all---if you can look at those possiblities and NOT feel the teenist bit concerned---I would check whether your "give a hoot" meter is set too low.

I have noticed that some here like to take a very sardonic or sarcastic view of everything--to the point that they don't ever believe a disaster is going to happen until it's upon them--and often even when it happens they're the first to question or deny it until the proof that it is real becomes incontrovertible. I'm sure what they tell themselves is how "objective" or "scientific" they are being, and congratulate themselves on their superiority for having such a "cool head." Rather like the officers on the Titanic who discounted weather reports of icebergs in the area, or the military commanders who ignored the lowly radar-operator's notice of what looked to him like "multiple aircraft" headed toward Japan on December 7 (you might want to read the article at https:// www.dispatch.com/article/20100225/news/302259665 opening words are "Don't worry about it.")

I've seen more troubles come about because people pridefully IGNORED signs of danger, all my life, than has come from anyone engaged in cautious, watchful, careful observation.

If it bothers you that we do this--if such cautious, watchful, careful observation is merely "emotionalism" to you---then perhaps if you avoid the thread you won't be bothered by my "emotionalism."

But your skepticism doesn't faze me---it merely reminds me of an old saw by a pastor I once heard describing the differences between men and women:

"A woman gets worried when she sees a crack in the roof.
A man gets worried when the roof falls in."

May you be safe in all future roof collapses.

Pax.
Click to expand...
I for one, love your posts! Please continue. Thanks for all your time!!
 
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