WAR trouble brewing again in ukraine

Nowski

Let's Go Brandon!
"The United States continues to stand with Ukraine and its allies and partners today, as it has from the beginning of this conflict. On this somber anniversary, we reaffirm a simple truth: Crimea is Ukraine," the Biden administration said on Feb.26.

Bullshitz.

Crimea is Russian, always was, until Khrushchev gave it to The Ukraine,
in 1954 during a power struggle, in The Kremlin.

95% of the people living in Crimea are Russians, and they voted
in a legal plebiscite, to return to Russia.

These basterds don't even know history.

Prayers for the success of the Russian people, and their military,
as they fight the ZUSA and NATO, over bullshitz in The Ukraine,
that was started by the chocolate POTUS, and the out of the pits
of hell communist demoncraps. Damn I hate them.

Please be safe everyone. AVOID THE GROID, PLEASE.

Regards to all.

Nowski
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Lads and lassies, THIS is what a cold start invasion looks like in preparation!
Mosey back a few pages (5 or 6-=- about 250 posts ) and watch as things get moved around on the battle-space, go read:
Posted for fair use.....


About the Author(s)

Bridget Bachman

Bridget Bachman is an active duty Captain with operational experience in Eastern Europe. She is currently serving as a Detachment Commander in the 6th Psychological Operations Battalion (Airborne).

And you can get an understanding of just HOW the Russians groom and prep a battlespace, using weapons that our country doesn't consider to BE weapons (more's the pity, dufi).
As you read the previous 5-6 pages THINK about maps as they get provided and think about the USA. ESPECIALLY the SOUTHERN USA.

If that ain't a battlespace being prepped without ANY defensive maneuvers I dunno what is.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
1617259764432.png

Ex2bbgxXEAM6uM8
 

jward

passin' thru
Aki Heikkinen
@akihheikkinen



Russian agricultural machinery manufacturers facing sudden logistical hurdles as cargo companies say railway carts are now in military use.
Disruptions are apparently serious as even Ministry of Agriculture stepped in to request flatbeds from Ministy of Transport as timely delivery of agricultural machinery is essential for seasonal field work (ie plowing and sowing).
Two largest Russian freight operators alone have 16 000 flatbeds. Now a tractor factory in St.Petersburg can't get 8-10 a day cause military use.
Still, Kommersant source in Ministry of Defence denies military takeover as "the need for such large transfers of military equipment arises only during planned (yearly main) strategic exercises" Highly recommend the original article. Astonishing!
View: https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1377319102545588231?s=20

View: https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1377349933750099970?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru
OSINTtechnical
@Osinttechnical



Why Russia wants to invade Ukraine, a thread. it's because of water. (It's always water isn't it?). This is the North Crimean Canal, dammed up since the Russian invasion of Crimea. Crimea is rapidly running out of water, and Russia needs this canal flowing again.
This is the canal's route, running from the Dnieper river across Crimea.
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377432689012187139?s=20

In 2014, after the Russian invasion, Ukraine decided the best option would be to cut Crimea off, so they dammed the canal.
Crimea is now running dangerously short on water, and the situation is quickly becoming untenable for the Russian occupation.
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377433702112845826?s=20

The dam is currently 16km from the border
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377434175670738944?s=20

BUT, the mouth of the canal is over 60km from the border
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377434524875821057?s=20

In order to successfully restore water to Crimea, Russia would probably have to retake this area
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377434991756419073?s=20

So, imagine if your this cheery looking fellow, Gen. Oleg Salûkov. Putin just popped into your office and told you that the canal must be taken ASAP. What would you do?
I'm going to work off the great
@Liveuamap1617253332343.png
now. You already have Ukrainian defensive positions set up against rebel forces in the west, but they aren't in the best condition. In the south, Ukrainian troops could move in quickly at any sign of military mobilization. So no surprise
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377436085295452164?s=20

If you know you can't surprise them, you have to overwhelm them. First, you have to tie down ready reserves in a quagmire to the east with the rebels. Give the rebels a bunch of armored vehicles (which has been happening over the past month) and make them distract the Ukrainians.
1617253368507.png
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377436655796240385?s=20

Now, you probably have about enough troops to meet the 3:1 ratio against a dug in opponent, lets look at the local area.
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377437429959811074?s=20

Good, this looks like a ready-made trap for any defender. Knock out the bridges over the Dneiper and the only way in or out is to the east. Make a hard push to the river and you can probably cut off most of the Ukrainian defenders. Then all you have to do is mop up any resistance
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377438223450836993?s=20

From this, you can see how the Russian troop movements fit in. Sprinkle some airborne troops to capture important objectives, and the plan starts to come together. All in all, a very attractive proposition was probably placed on Putin's desk.
Quick, easy war, complete destruction of your enemies' front line troops, and restoration of the water supply to Crimea.
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377468279866941440?s=20
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......

Posted for fair use.....

OPINION
#RUSSIA#UKRAINE 01.04.2021 - 119 views

0 (0 votes)


The Saker: “Understanding Anti-Putin PSYOPs: Preparing For War”

Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review


Intro: cause vs pretext


It is not an exaggeration to say that in the mythology of the AngloZionist Empire Putin is something akin to Satan or, at least, that he is a kind of “Sauron” who is the epitome of evil. And, we all heard that recently, Biden, in a recorded interview, declared that Putin is “a killer”. When given a chance to soften this statement Jen Psaki did no such thing. We can, therefore, conclude that this was an official, deliberately planned, characterization of the Russian leader.


This kind of language was never used by western officials during the Cold War, at least not on the top levels. So why this seething hatred for Putin?


It is not because he is ex-PGU KGB SSSR. Yuri Andropov was a former KGB Chairman, and he did a lot to strengthen the KGB, its personnel and operations. Yet nobody called him a killer. Neither is this because of Crimea or the Donbass, at least not directly, because when the USSR invaded Czechoslovakia and, before that, Hungary, western politicians did not call Khrushchev or Brezhnev “killers”. It is not because of the shooting down of MH-17 (western leaders all know that these are lies created by western special services), because there have been quite a few civilian airliners shot down by various states, but that did not result in the kind of total demonization of the leaders of these states. I could go on and on, but you get the point: even if we carefully parse all the accusations against Putin, we find out that the kind of total demonization he has been the subject of is quite unique in its intensity and scope.

There is a huge difference between the concepts of “cause” and “pretext”, and all the examples I have given are nothing but pretexts. We need to look at the real causes of such a blind hatred for Putin.


Here we come across another list of possible reasons: first, it is undeniable that while Eltsin almost destroyed Russia as a country, Putin single-handedly “resurrected” Russia in an amazingly short time. From a country which was in tatters and a population which wanted nothing more than to become the next Germany or, failing that, at least the next Poland, Putin turned Russia into the strongest military power on the planet and he completely reshaped the Russian perception of themselves and of Russia. Not only that, but Putin used every single move by the West (like, say, sanctions, boycotts or threats) to further strengthen Russia (by means such as import substitutions, international conferences and military maneuvers). Most importantly, Putin de-coupled Russia from a lot of US controlled institutions or mechanisms, a move which also immensely served Russia.


US politicians spoke of a country with an “economy in tatters” and of a “gas station masquerading as a country”. But in the real world (Zone B), the Russia economy did much better than the western ones and, as for the “energy war” between the US, the KSA and Russia, it ended in a catastrophic defeat for the USA and a triumph for Russia and, to a lesser degree, the KSA.


Then came COVID and the truly epic disaster of the West’s total mismanagement of this crisis. Not only that, but the contrast of how Russia (and China!) handled the crisis and what the West did could not have been bigger. As for Russia being the first country to create a vaccine (by now, no less than three of them actually; now Russia is about to release yet another vaccine, this time protecting animals from COVID) and, worse, the country which created the best vaccine on the planet – this is a PR disaster for the West and there is nothing the West can do to soften the blow. If anything, things are only getting worse as shown by all the coming lockdowns in Europe – contrast that with this photo of happy Lavrov in China wearing a mask with “FCKNG QRNTN” written on it!


But that is not the real reason either, as shown by the fact that the West already hated Putin long before COVID.


The “stolen” Cold War victory


In truth, the West has a very long list of reasons for which to hate Putin and everything Russian, but I believe that there is one reason which trumps them all: the western leaders sincerely believed that they had defeated the USSR in the Cold War (even medals were made to commemorate this event) and following the collapse of the former superpower and the coming to power of a clueless, alcoholic puppet, the triumph of the West was total. At least in appearance. The reality, as always, was much more complicated.


[Sidebar: the causes and mechanisms of the collapse of the Soviet Union are not our topic today, so I will just indicate that I believe that the USSR never “collapsed” but that it was deliberately destroyed by the CPSU apparatus which decided to break up the country in order for the Party and Nomenklatura to remain in power, not at the helm of the USSR, but at the helm of the various ex-Soviet republics. Weak leaders and ideologies which nobody really believes in do not inspire people to fight for their rulers. This is why the Russian monarchy collapsed, this is why the masonic democracy of Kerenskii collapsed and this is why the Soviet Union collapsed (this is also one of the most likely reasons for the final collapse of the US as a state).]


Putin, who was not very well known in the West or, for that matter, in Russia, came to power and immediately reversed Russia’s course towards the abyss. First, he dealt with the two most urgent threats, the oligarchs and the Wahabi insurrection in the Caucasus. Many Russians, including myself, were absolutely amazed at the speed and determination of his actions. As a result, Putin suddenly found himself one of the most popular leaders in Russian history. Initially, the West went into a kind of shock, then through a process reminiscent of the so-called “Kübler-Ross model” and, finally, the West settled into a russophobic frenzy not seen since the Nazi regime in Germany during WWII.


To understand why Putin is the Devil incarnate, we have to understand that the leaders of the collective West really thought that this time around, after a millennium of failures and embarrassing defeats, the West has finally “defeated” Russia which would now become a leaderless, culture-less, spiritual-less and, of course, history-less territory whose sole purpose would be to provide resources for the “Triumphant West”. Not only that, but the AngloZionist leaders of the Empire executed the 9/11 false flag operation which gave them the pretext needed for the GWOT, but which completely distracted the West from its previous focus on the so-called “Russian threat” simply because by 2001 there was no Russian threat. So there was a certain logic behind these moves. And then, “suddenly” (at least for western leaders) Russia was “back”: in 2013 Russia stopped the planned US/NATO attack on Syria (the pretext here was Syrian chemical weapons). In 2014 Russia gave her support to the Novorussian uprising against the Ukronazi regime in Kiev and, in the same year, Russia also used her military to make it possible for the local population to vote on a referendum to join Russia. Finally, in 2015, Russia stunned the West with an extremely effective military intervention in Syria.


In this sequence, Russia committed two very different types of “crimes” (from the AngloZionist point of view, of course):


  • The minor crime of doing what Russia actually did and
  • The much bigger crime of never asking the Empire for the permission to do so

The West likes to treat the rest of the planet like some kind of junior partner, with very limited autonomy and almost no real agency (the best example is what the USA did to countries like Poland or Bulgaria). If and when any such “junior” country wants to do something in its foreign policy, it absolutely has to ask for permission from its AngloZionist Big Brother. Not doing so is something akin to sedition and revolt. In the past, many countries were “punished” or daring to have an opinion or, even more so, for daring to act on it.


It would not be inaccurate to summarize it all by saying that Putin flipped his finger to the Empire and its leaders. That “crime of crimes” was what really triggered the current anti-Russian hysteria. Soon, however, the (mostly clueless) leaders of the Empire ran into an extremely frustrating problem: while the russophobic hysteria did get a lot of traction in the West, in Russia it created a very powerful blowback because of a typical Putin “judo” move: far from trying to suppress the anti-Russian propaganda of the West, the Kremlin used its power to make it widely available (in Russian!) through the Russian media (I wrote about this in some detail here and here). The direct result of this was two fold: first, the CIA/MI6 run “opposition” began to be strongly associated with the russophobic enemies of Russia and, second, the Russian general public further rallied around Putin and his unyielding stance. In other words, calling Putin a dictator and, of course, a “new Hitler”, the western PSYOPs gained some limited advantage in the western public opinion, but totally shot itself in the leg with the Russian public.


I refer to this stage as the “phase one anti-Putin strategic PSYOP”. As for the outcome of this PSYOP, I would not only say that it almost completely failed, but I think that it has the exact opposite intended effect inside Russia.


A change of course was urgently needed.


The redirection of US PSYOPs against Putin and Russia


I have to admit that I have a very low opinion of the US intelligence community, including its analysts. But even the rather dull US “Russia area specialist” eventually figured out that telling the Russian public opinion that Putin was a “dictator” or a “killer of dissidents” or a “chemical poisoner of exiles” resulted in a typically Russian mix of laughter and support for the Kremlin. Something had to be done.


So some smart ass somewhere in some basement came up with the following idea: it makes no sense to accuse Putin of things which make him popular at home, so let’s come up with a new list of accusations carefully tailored to the Russian public.

Continued.....
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Continued.....

Let’s call this a “phase two anti-Putin PSYOP operation”.


And this is how the “Putin is in cahoots with” thing began. Specifically, these accusations were deployed by the US PSYOPs and those in its pay:


  • Putin is disarming Syria
  • Putin will sell out the Donbass
  • Putin is a puppet of Israel and, specifically, Netanyahu
  • Putin is a corrupt traitor to the Russian national interests
  • Putin is allowing Israel to bomb Syria (see here)
  • Putin is selling the Siberian riches to China and/or Putin is subjugating Russia to China
  • Putin is corrupt, weak and even cowardly
  • Putin was defeated by Erdogan in the Nagorno-Karabakh war

The above are the main talking points immediately endorsed and executed by the US strategic PSYOPs against Russia.


Was it effective?


Yes, to some degree. For one thing, these “anti-Russian PSYOPS reloaded” were immediately picked up by at least part of what one could call the “internal patriotic opposition” (much of it very sincerely and without any awareness of being skillfully manipulated). Even more toxic was the emergence of a rather loud neo-Communist (or, as Ruslan Ostashko often calls them “emo-Marxist”) movement (I personally refer to as a sixth column) which began an internal anti-Kremlin propaganda campaign centered on the following themes:


  • “All is lost” (всепропальщики): that is thesis which says that nothing in Russia is right, everything is either wrong or evil, the country is collapsing, so is its economy, its science, its military, etc. etc. etc. This is just a garden variety of defeatism, nothing more.
  • “Nothing was achieved since Putin came to power”: this is a weird one, since it takes an absolutely spectacular amount of mental gymnastics to not see that Putin literally saved Russia from total destruction. This stance also completely fails to explain why Putin is so hated by the Empire (if Putin did everything wrong, like, say Eltsin did, he would be adored in the West, not hated!).
  • All the elections in Russia were stolen. Here the 5th (CIA/MI6 run) column and 6th column have to agree: according to both of them, there is absolutely no way most Russians supported Putin for so many years and there is no way they support him now. And nevermind the fact that the vast majority of polls show that Putin was, and still is, the most popular political figure in Russia.

Finally, the big SNAFU with the pension reform definitely did not help Putin’s ratings, so he had to take action: he “softened” some of the worst provisions of this reform and, eventually, he successfully sidelined some of the worst Atlantic Integrationists, including Medvedev himself.


Sadly, some putatively pro-Russian websites, blogs and individuals showed their true face when they jumped on the bandwagon of this 2nd strategic PSYOP campaign, probably with the hope to either become more noticed, or get some funding, or both. Hence, all the nonsense about Russia and Israel working together or Putin “selling out” we have seen so many times recently. The worst thing here is that these websites, blogs and individuals have seriously misled and distressed some of the best real friends of Russia in the West.


None of these guys ever address a very simple question: if Putin is such a sellout, and if all is lost, why does the AngloZionist Empire hate Putin so much? In almost 1000 years of warfare (spiritual, cultural, political, economic and military) against Russia, the leaders of the West have always hated real Russian patriots and they have always loved the (alas, many) traitors to Russia. And now, they hate Putin because he is such a terrible leader?


This makes absolutely no sense.


Conclusion: is a war inevitable now?


The US/NATO don’t engage in strategic PYSOPs just because they like or dislike somebody. The main purpose of such PSYOPs is to break the other side’s will to resist. This was also the main objective of both (phase one and phase two) anti-Putin PSYOPs. I am happy to report that both phases of these PYSOPs failed. The danger here is that these failures have failed to convince the leaders of the Empire of the need to urgently change course and accept the “Russian reality”, even if they don’t like it.


Ever since “Biden” (the “collective Biden”, of course, not the potted plant) Administration (illegally) seized power, what we saw was a sharp escalation of anti-Russian statements. Hence, the latest “uhu, he is a killer” – this was no mistake by a senile mind, this was a carefully prepared declaration. Even worse, the Empire has not limited itself to just words, it also did some important “body moves” to signal its determination to seek even further confrontation with Russia:


  • There has been a lot of sabre-rattling coming from the West, mostly some rather ill-advsied (or even outright stupid) military maneuvers near/along the Russian border. As I have explained it a billion times, these maneuvers are self-defeating from a military point of view (the closer to the Russian border, the more dangerous for the western military force). Politically, however, they are extremely provocative and, therefore, dangerous.
  • The vast majority of Russian analysts do not believe that the US/NATO will openly attack Russia, if only because that would be suicidal (the current military balance in Europe is strongly in Russia’s favor, even without using hypersonic weapons). What many of them now fear is that “Biden” will unleash the Ukronazi forces against the Donbass, thereby “punishing” both the Ukraine and Russia (the former for its role in the US presidential campaign). I tend to agree with both of these statements.

At the end of the day, the AngloZionist Empire was always racist at its core, and that empire is still racist: for its leaders, the Ukrainian people are just cannon fodder, an irrelevant third rate nation with no agency which has outlived its utility (US analysts do understand that the US plan for the Ukraine has ended in yet another spectacular faceplant such delusional plans always end up with, even if they don’t say so publicly). So why not launch these people into a suicidal war against not only the LDNR but also Russia herself? Sure, Russia will quickly and decisively win the military war, but politically it will be a PR disaster for Russia as the “democratic West” will always blame Russia, even when she clearly did not attack first (as was the case in 08.08.08, most recently).


I have already written about the absolutely disastrous situation of the Ukraine three weeks ago so I won’t repeat it all here, I will just say that since that day things have gotten even much worse: suffice to say that the Ukraine has moved a lot of heavy armor to the line of contact while the regime in Kiev has now banned the import of Russian toilet paper (which tells you what the ruling gang thinks of as important and much needed measures). While it is true that the Ukraine has become a totally failed state since the Neo-Nazi coup, there is now a clear acceleration of the collapse of not only the regime or state, but of the country as a whole. Ukraine is falling apart so fast that one could start an entire website tracking only all this developing horror, not day by day, but, hour by hour. Suffice to say that “Ze” has turned out to be even worse than Poroshenko. The only thing Poroshenko did which “Ze” has not (yet!) is to start a war. Other than that, the rest of what he did (by action or inaction) can only be qualified as “more of the same, only worse”.


Can a war be prevented?


I don’t know. Putin gave the Ukronazis a very stern warning (“grave consequences for Ukraine’s statehood as such“). I don’t believe for one second that anybody in power in Kiev gives a damn about the Ukraine or the Ukrainian statehood, but they are smart enough to realize that a Russian counter-attack in defense of the LDNR and, even more so, Crimea, might include precision “counter-leadership” strikes with advanced missiles. The Ukronazi leaders would be well-advised to realize that they all have a crosshair painted on their heads. They might also think about this: what happened to every single Wahabi gang leader in Chechnya since the end of the 2nd Chechen war? (hint: they were all found and executed). Will that be enough to stop them?


Maybe. Let’s hope so.


But we must now keep in mind that for the foreseeable future there are only two options left for the Ukraine: “a horrible ending or a horror without end” (Russian expression).


  1. The best scenario for the people of the Ukraine would be a (hopefully relatively peaceful) breakup of the country into manageable parts.
  2. The worst option would definitely be a full-scale war against Russia.

Judging by the rhetoric coming out of Kiev these days, most Ukrainian politicians are firmly behind option #2, especially since that is also the only option acceptable to their overseas masters. The Ukrainians have also adopted a new military doctrine (they call it a “military security strategy of Ukraine”) which declares Russia the aggressor state and military adversary of the Ukraine (see here for a machine translation of the official text).


This might be the reason why Merkel and Macron recently had a videoconference with Putin (“Ze” was not invited): Putin might be trying to convince Merkel and Macron that such a war would be a disaster for Europe. In the meantime, Russia is rapidly reinforcing her forces along the Ukrainian border, including in Crimea.


But all these measures can only deter a regime which has no agency. The outcome shall be decided in Washington DC, not Kiev. I am afraid that the traditional sense of total impunity of US political leaders will, once again, give them a sense of very little risk (for them personally or for the USA) in triggering a war in the Ukraine. The latest news on the US-Ukrainian front is the delivery by the USN of 350 tonnes of military equipment in Odessa. Not enough to be militarily significant, but more than enough to further egg on the regime in Kiev to an attack on the Donbass and/or Crimea.


In fact, I would not even put it past “Biden” to launch an attack on Iran while the world watches the Ukraine and Russia go to war. After all, the other country whose geostrategic position has been severely degraded since Russia moved her forces to Syria is Israel, the one country which all US politicians will serve faithfully and irrespective of any costs (including human costs for the USA). The Israelis have been demanding a war on Iran since at least 2007, and it would be very naive to hope that they won’t eventually get their way. Last, but not least, there is the crisis which Bliken’s condescending chutzpah triggered with China which, so far, has resulted in an economic war only, but which might also escalate at any moment, especially considering all the many recent anti-Chinese provocations by the US Navy.


Right now the weather in the eastern Ukraine is not conducive to offensive military operations. The snow is still melting, creating very difficult and muddy road conditions (called “rasputitsa” in Russian) which greatly inhibit the movement of forces and troops. These conditions will, however, change with the warmer season coming, at which point the Ukronazi forces will be ideally poised for an attack.


In other words, barring some major development, we might be only weeks away from a major war.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For all the embedded twitter links see article source......

Posted for fair use.....




Russian Armor Floods Toward Border With Ukraine Amid Fears Of An "Imminent Crisis"
A flurry of alarming reports and social media posts indicate that Russia is pouring military hardware into Crimea and its border with Eastern Ukraine.
By Joseph Trevithick March 31, 2021


A still from a video reportedly showing a trainload of tanks in southwestern Russia headed in the direction of the border with Ukraine.
via Twitter
SHARE



Joseph Trevithick View Joseph Trevithick's Articles

@FranticGoat







Trains loaded with large amounts of Russian military hardware, including tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery, appear to be streaming toward the country's borders with Ukraine. There are unconfirmed reports that the scale of these movements is so significant that it has, to the dismay of Russian farmers, disrupted shipments of tractors and other agricultural equipment ahead of the spring harvest season. U.S. officials are now worried that a new major round of fighting between Russia and Ukraine may be imminent as a ceasefire is at risk of expiring tomorrow.
It's not entirely clear when the Russian buildup began, but video footage and other imagery reportedly showing armored vehicles and other military equipment on trains heading toward southwestern Russian has been appearing on social media since at least March 27, 2021. There have also been sightings of large ground convoys and groups of aircraft.



message-editor%2F1617234452467-msta-s-train.jpg

via Twitter

152mm Msta-S self-propelled howitzers loaded on a train reportedly seen recently in Kerch on the Crimean Peninsula.









This includes at least one clip of a trainload of 152mm 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, BMP-3 infantry fight vehicles, and other military vehicles, crossing a bridge that now links Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, and footage of what appears to be the same train in the Crimean city of Kerch. Russian forces seized this region from Ukraine in 2014 and the Kremlin subsequently annexed it.








Some military movements in the same general region had been observed earlier the month and appeared to be related to a previously announced exercise. However, there have now been reports that Russian forces that took part in those drills remained deployed after the training officially wrapped up on March 23. In addition, subsequent deployments had reportedly seen troops, including units not known to have been involved in the aforementioned drills, head out to locations outside of the publicly announced exercise areas.
"We've reached out to Russia to try to gain a little more clarity on what's going on," top Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said on March 31. U.S. Army General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had reached out to his Russian counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov, on March 31, 2021, to ask about the troop movements, but it's unclear what the Russian response was to those queries. Milley also spoke with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Ruslan Khomchak about the developing situation.






“The Russian Federation continues its aggressive policy towards Ukraine,” Khomchak had told his country's parliament on March 30. “An additional concentration of up to 25 tactical groups is expected, which, together with the already deployed forces near the state border of Ukraine, poses a threat to the military security of the state."







Ukraine Cleared To Move Javelin Missiles To Front Lines To Blow Up Russian Tanks "Defensively" By Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone

Ukrainian Officer Details Russian Electronic Warfare Tactics Including Radio "Virus" By Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone

All You Need To Know About Bombing Of Top Separatist Leader In Ukraine And Why It Matters By Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone

Russia Even Ripped Out The Toilets Before Returning Ukraine's Ships It Seized By Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone

B-52 Bombers Fly Unprecedented Patrol Along Edge Of Russian-Controlled Territory In Ukraine (Updated) By Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone


Khomchak had also said that Russia has around 32,700 military personnel in Crimea, at present. Since annexing the territory in 2014, the Kremlin has significantly expanded its military presence there to include air, naval, and ground-based assets, including anti-ship cruise missile and surface-to-air missile batteries.
Russia also oversees some 28,000 personnel in "separatist" units in areas of eastern Ukraine known collectively as the Donbass who have been fighting the government in Kyiv since 2015. Though the Kremlin denies it, the evidence is clear that a substantial portion of these forces is simply regular Russian military units deployed on Ukrainian soil. There are also strong links between Russia's intelligence services and ostensibly "local" forces.



message-editor%2F1617232726731-osce.jpg

OSCE

A map provided by the multinational Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) showing the activities of its Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine that gives a general sense of the eastern Donbass region of the country. The red "line of contact" represents the de facto boundary between areas occupied by "separatist" forces and the rest of Ukraine.


It's not clear exactly how much additional Russian military hardware is actually heading towards the border with Ukraine, but there are reports that the deliveries are substantial enough to have disrupted the movement of other goods via rail, such as agricultural tractors, in the country, according to the Kommersant newspaper. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not respond to Kommersant's queries on the matter and, interestingly, the outlet's sources within the country's defense establishment denied the claims that large numbers of flatbed railcars have been requisitioned from state railroad operators for military use.
Though the new Russian military buildup is clearly at least a message meant for Ukrainian authorities, what the Kremlin's exact plan is remains unclear. The Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which includes representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the multinational Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), reportedly failed to agree on the terms of an extension of an existing ceasefire agreement in Donbass beyond April 1.
The Ukrainian delegation pointed the finger squarely at the Russians for the breakdown in talks, according to reports. Both sides routinely accuse each other of violating the current ceasefire, regardless, with Ukrainian officials saying 26 of its soldiers have died in fighting this year already.





The immediate concern is that major fighting in Donbass could resume after the ceasefire expires tomorrow. The New York Times reported today that U.S. European Command (EUCOM) had changed Ukraine's status on an internal watch list from "possible crisis" to "potential imminent crisis," the latter being the most serious level on the scale.
It is important to point that there have been concerning spikes in Russia's military activity near Ukraine in the past, but the timing of these developments around the expiration of the ceasefire seems particularly notable. The very visible massing of Russian forces in areas along Ukraine's borders could simply be intended as a deterrent against a new Ukrainian offensive into Donbass. At the same time, if a new round of large-scale fighting were to erupt in eastern Ukraine, there is also the possibility that Russia might seek to change the status quo around areas presently occupied by "separatist" elements to put additional pressure on the government in Kyiv.
The pressure resulting from any outburst of fighting in Ukraine could also apply to the United States. Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly responded in an unusually angry fashion to remarks U.S. President Joe Biden had made in an interview with ABC News's George Stephanopoulos. Biden had agreed with the characterization of Putin as a "killer" and said that he would “pay a price” for interference in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, something the Kremlin denies.









U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken did reiterate the U.S. government's support for Ukraine's "sovereignty and territorial integrity" in a call today with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. The United States, as well as most of the international community, does not recognize Russia's occupation of Crimea or "separatist" claims in Donbass. However, Ukraine is not a NATO member or otherwise a formal American ally, though they are an important regional security partner, and it's unclear how willing or able the U.S. government would be to prevent any new major incursion by Russia into Ukraine.





Prompting some level of crisis with Ukraine could also help the Kremlin distract attention from domestic issues, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, in Russia. Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin faced unusually large protests over the arrest of political dissident Alexei Navalny. Navalny is a long-time critic of Putin, as well as other Russian officials, and has headed up an organization dedicated to exposing government corruption in Russia.
Navalny is now on a hunger strike in prison after being convicted of what he and his lawyers say were politically motivated charges in February. He was arrested immediately after returning to Russian from treatment in Germany following an assassination attempt last year involving one of a secretive family of chemical weapons referred to collectively as Novichoks.
Whatever the exact goals of Russia's new military buildup near Ukraine might be, it has already succeeded in provoking concerns about a new escalation in the conflict between the two countries.
Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com


Don't forget to sign up

Your Email Address



MORE TO READ

 

Squid

Veteran Member
The morons running US foreign direct the world toward war, at this point whether by idiocy or evil plan it doesn’t matter.

This will only end well for China.
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic
The morons running US foreign direct the world toward war, at this point whether by idiocy or evil plan it doesn’t matter.

This will only end well for China.
actually russia will benefit greatly
" But, when America burns, the Lord will raise China, Japan, and other nations to go against the Russians. They will beat the Russians and push them all the way to the gates of Paris.

Over there they will make a treaty, and appoint the Russians as their leaders."

THE MESSAGE FOR AMERICA The Message For America
Dumitri Duduman
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Update: Ukraine is Reportedly Calling Reserve Personnel to the Army.
EndGameWW3

@EndGameWW3

·
12m


“Soldiers understand the damage that will be caused by actions aimed at starting a hot conflict. I hope that the soldiers will not be encouraged in this direction by the politicians who have been provoked by the US-led West."
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Morning report on the situation in the area of the Joint Forces operation as of 7.00 on April 1, 2021 [THIS PAGE HAS BEEN TRANSLATED}
9 hours ago | ID: 62165

Glory to Ukraine!
During the past 24 hours, on March 31, in the area of the Joint Forces operation, the armed forces of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire 5 times.
In the area of responsibility of the operational and tactical group "East", near the settlements of SAND and WATER, in the Azov Sea, the occupiers opened fire with grenade launchers of various systems, large-caliber machine guns and small arms.
In the area of responsibility of the operational and tactical group "North", near the settlements of SVITLODARSKE, LUHANSKE and ZOLOTE-4, the invaders fired at our positions with automatic machine-gun and hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers, large-caliber machine guns and machine guns.
There are no combat losses among servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian side of the SCCC reports gross violations by the armed forces of the Russian Federation in the temporarily occupied territory.
After the meeting of the Tripartite Contact Group, during which the occupiers did not support the peace initiatives of the Ukrainian side, the mercenaries of the Russian Federation carried out a number of provocations along the entire line of demarcation.
In addition, the occupiers intensified work on retrofitting the old and arranging new defensive positions.
On March 31, the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine recorded the performance of engineering works by the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the creation of new fortifications in the direction of the demarcation line on the outskirts of KALINIVKA, in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk region.
The above facts indicate that the representatives of the Russian occupation forces continue to violate previously reached agreements.
We emphasize that the Armed Forces of Ukraine strictly adhere to the agreements reached on the ceasefire and are consistent in fulfilling their commitments.
As of 7 a.m. on April 1, 3 shellings by Russian occupation forces were recorded. In particular, not far from SVITLODARSKAYA and ZOLOTE-4 the enemy opened fire from grenade launchers of various systems and large-caliber machine guns, and near the village of NOVHORODSKE from small arms.
Ukrainian troops continue to monitor the situation in the area of the Joint Forces operation and adhere to the ceasefire.
Glory to Ukraine!
RESULTS FOR THE PAST DAY
Other components of the Defense Forces shall perform tasks in the area of the Joint Forces operation.
During the day, the police units of the combined units inspected 4,889 vehicles, 4,835 people, of which 4,302 at the Information Center. One person was taken to the territorial subdivisions to be involved in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and its mercenaries. 87 administrative offenses were revealed.
During this period, police uncovered 19 crimes.
Last day, 1,014 people followed the entry-exit checkpoint "Stanytsia Luhanska" into the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, and 795 people arrived in the territory controlled by Ukraine.
 

Sid Vicious

Veteran Member
I think it's going to be a stalemate. I suspect the Russians are going to lose a ton of armored units. Ukraine has been buying attack drones from anyone willing to sell them. We have seen how effective those were against the Armenian armored groups.
 
Top