WAR trouble brewing again in ukraine

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Yeah and TRUMP was SanFranNan's "totally out of control warmonger"

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Conventional wisdom reads Russia and East Ukraine (well Donbass etc.)at about 2:1.
There are ,ore than a few problems with that back of the napkin analysis. NATO is a wild card which to reverse those numbers. The US fleet ALONE could reverse those numbers (cf the Ike).
The Ike Carrier task group (or whatever they're calling them today) with their MEU(SOC) could make the ground war NOT what VVP plans on (in terms of how fast a Blitz he can get).

remember you are watching a "Cold Start Invasion" here. This is what it looks like.
Yes, we get to see LOTS of pretty armor and artillery being run on roads and railroads, and lots of serious looking troopers being run on roads in trucks.
BUT, NOWHERE IS IT WRITTEN that this is NOT a feint, but a pressure move. Or some kind of maskirovka NOT leading to war. Why it's called a Cold Start Invasion. Done RIGHT the troops AT the line of demarcation are NOT the first to cross, The REAL invasion force is 2-3-4 kliks away from the demarcation line so they get up a decent head of velocity before they crash into the opponents lines. Speed and violence of force can win battles when the smaller force hits the larger. Just like personal attacks. Your BEST defense is a VIOLENT ACT with a LOT OF NOISE.
 
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adgal

Veteran Member
.. that's what, 3rd time in as many weeks that they(we've) reaffirmed our support for Ukraine..normal dance step, or is the reiteration as odd as it seems.. :shr:

OSINTtechnical
@Osinttechnical

12m


US SECDEF- "I had a productive call with Ukrainian Minister of Defence Andrii Taran today. We discussed regional security, and I reaffirmed our unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and Euro-Atlantic aspirations."

View attachment 259168
Is that $125 million with or without the Biden Family Tax?
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
oh boy... will Russia turn back or ...
This seals it. Not only is he Austin the 3rd, and who the F#%%% names a kid Austin the 3rd, and not only does he. like Britain guarantee Poland after Hitler takes Czechoslovakia, he now fully commits our fat incompetent transgendered PC troops to fight the lethal Russian military.

PREPRE FOR MILITARY DEFEAT.

We got some time left die to General Mud, but maybe 4 weeks, the end of April. Hitler went into Russia on June 22nd, due to delays from Greece etc. No later than June 1st, and no earlier than May 1st, so we are looking at sometime in May. 30 to 60 days max.
 

Squid

Veteran Member
IMHO Ukraine is being played. It is likely they are acting under US crazed state department actors playing ‘fun games’ with real people and the likely back door lies about full US and Nato support.

When the bear over-runs Ukraine, all the information and many witnesses for the sweetheart money deals with all those democrats including the Bidens are destroyed by the Russians.

Next the media will pull all the sob stories out and say see we told you Russians are bad, and trot this out as ‘proof’ Russian collusion, orange man bad 2024 etc... etc...

The ultimate oops is when so much military is packed in such a space on alert status hyped mode ultra a we didn’t want that to happen usually happens.

Morons...
 

Oreally

Right from the start
We got some time left die to General Mud, but maybe 4 weeks, the end of April. Hitler went into Russia on June 22nd, due to delays from Greece etc. No later than June 1st, and no earlier than May 1st, so we are looking at sometime in May. 30 to 60 days max.

on the ground there now ...
50% rainy days over the next week, very wet everywhere...so late april/early may.

but personally i think US and NATO will back down, and not 'allow' Ukr forces to instigate a bigger fight...

mainly because of all the assets swimming and flying all around CONUS clearly stoked and ready for the real thing..

think... who is most likely behind this crap?

Obama , a phony crack smoking faggot up against...

Vlad Putin, chess master, black belt, ex-KGB, ruthless gangster...

who is likely to cave first?
 

naegling62

Veteran Member
So besides Serbia, when was the last time white folks fought each other? Yeah I don't like the answer to that.
 

naegling62

Veteran Member
on the ground there now ...
50% rainy days over the next week, very wet everywhere...so late april/early may.

but personally i think US and NATO will back down, and not 'allow' Ukr forces to instigate a bigger fight...

mainly because of all the assets swimming and flying all around CONUS clearly stoked and ready for the real thing..

think... who is most likely behind this crap?

Obama , a phony crack smoking faggot up against...

Vlad Putin, chess master, black belt, ex-KGB, ruthless gangster...

who is likely to cave first?
Let's just have a contest on who can get up a set of stairs first without tripping and call it a day.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Russian FM says relations with West have 'hit the bottom'
Russia’s top diplomat says the country’s relations with the United States and its allies have “hit the bottom” and no date has been set for sending the Russian ambassador back to Washington

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV Associated Press
1 April 2021, 14:11


Sergey Lavrov

Image Icon
The Associated Press
In this photo released by the Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attends a signing ceremony with his Turkmenistan's counterpart Rasit Meredow following their talks in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, April 1, 2021. Lavrov said Thursday that the Russian-U.S. relations have "hit the bottom," adding there is no plan yet to send the Russian ambassador back to Washington. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

MOSCOW -- Russia's top diplomat said Thursday that the country's relations with the United States and its allies have “hit the bottom” and no date has been set for sending the Russian ambassador back to Washington.

Russia recalled its ambassador to the United States after U.S. President Joe Biden was asked in an interview if thought Russian President Vladimir Putin was a “killer” and replied, “I do.”

Addressing the issue Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Biden's remarks “appalling” and said they had forced Moscow to rethink its ties with Washington.

Lavrov also voiced regret about Washington’s rejection of Putin’s offer to arrange a quick public call with Biden to help defuse the tension over the remarks.

“The confrontation has hit the bottom,” the Russian minister said in televised remarks. “But on the other hand, there is a hope that they are all grown-up people who realize the risks linked with inciting more tensions. I hope that common sense will prevail."

Lavrov said it would be up to Putin to decide when Ambassador Anatoly Antonov returns to Washington.

Biden has said the days of the U.S. “rolling over” to Putin are done. And he has taken pains to contrast his approach with that of former President Donald Trump, who avoided direct confrontation with Putin and frequently spoke about the Russian leader with approval.

The Biden administration has warned that Russia would face sanctions soon over the massive SolarWinds hacks and attempts to influence last year's U.S. presidential election to help keep Trump in the White House.

Russia’s relations with the United States and the European Union already had plunged to post-Cold War lows after Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea, election meddling, hacking attacks and most recently, the poisoning and imprisonment of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

“So I’m aware of the comments of the Russian foreign minister. I’m also aware of the backdrop and that is what is important to us. Why we are where we are in terms of the bilateral relationship with Russia,” said U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price. “It remains true that we continue to look for a stable and predictable relationship with Russia. Just because we have these profound disagreements, just because the relationship is where it is right now doesn’t mean that there aren’t going to be any areas of tactical alignment.”

Lavrov argued that the U.S.-led pressure on Russia “has absolutely no chance for success.” He also blamed the European Union for the collapse of Russia-EU ties, denying that Moscow has ever tried to sow discord among the bloc's member nations.

“We are interested in the EU being strong and independent,” he said. lamenting what he described as the EU's eagerness to toe the U.S. policy on Russia.

“We will always be ready to restore our relationship, to raise it from the ashes,” Lavrov said. “But we won't knock on the closed door.”

Lavrov also rejected the idea of Russia using its energy supplies to EU nations as political leverage. He said Moscow would never cut shipments even if the West moved to step up sanctions on Russia.

“We won't engage in a situation when we ‘freeze’ EU citizens,” he said.

While pointing at Russia's increasingly close ties with China, the foreign minister emphasized that Moscow and Beijing have no intention of forging a military alliance or coordinating a joint stance against the West.

“We don't need a military alliance in the classic sense like NATO,” Lavrov said.

Russian FM says relations with West have 'hit the bottom' - ABC News (go.com)
 

jward

passin' thru
Europe News
April 1, 202111:50 AMUpdated 11 hours ago
NATO says it is concerned about Russian military build-up near Ukraine
By Reuters Staff
1 Min Read

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - NATO said on Thursday it was concerned about a Russian military build-up near Ukraine’s borders, as NATO ambassadors met to discuss the recent spike in violence in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region.

A NATO official told Reuters that Moscow was undermining peace efforts in eastern Ukraine. “Allies shared their concerns about Russia’s recent large scale military activities in and around Ukraine. Allies are also concerned about Russian violations of the July 2020 ceasefire that led to the death of four Ukrainian soldiers last week.

“Russia’s destabilising actions undermine efforts to de-escalate tensions,” the NATO official said.

 

vestige

Deceased
Europe News
April 1, 202111:50 AMUpdated 11 hours ago
NATO says it is concerned about Russian military build-up near Ukraine
By Reuters Staff
1 Min Read

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - NATO said on Thursday it was concerned about a Russian military build-up near Ukraine’s borders, as NATO ambassadors met to discuss the recent spike in violence in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region.

A NATO official told Reuters that Moscow was undermining peace efforts in eastern Ukraine. “Allies shared their concerns about Russia’s recent large scale military activities in and around Ukraine. Allies are also concerned about Russian violations of the July 2020 ceasefire that led to the death of four Ukrainian soldiers last week.

“Russia’s destabilising actions undermine efforts to de-escalate tensions,” the NATO official said.

Kinda sounds like war talk
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Ukrainian Dependency on Belarusian Fuels in Light of the Belarus Sanctions Debate
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 18 Issue: 53
By: Mateusz Kubiak

April 1, 2021 05:37 PM Age: 7 hours

As Russia appears to be escalating the war in eastern Ukraine (see EDM, March 11), the debate in the West on possible sanctions against Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime goes on. One of the potential actions presumably under consideration may be the imposition of an embargo on Belarusian oil product exports to Europe. Such a policy, however, would only be partially effective without Ukrainian participation, as the latter accounts for up to approximately one-third of Belarusian fuel export volumes (Argusmedia.com, February 16). And for this same reason, it would be highly unlikely that Kyiv could back such a sanctions proposal.

The Ukrainian petroleum refinery sector effectively collapsed over the past few years, and as a result, the country is heavily dependent on fuel imports. The only large-scale Ukrainian crude oil processing plant in operation is the Kremenchug refinery, which is controlled by Ihor Kolomoysky (one of the country’s most powerful oligarchs, designated by the Department of State for his involvement in high-level corruption efforts—State.gov, March 5). In 2020, this asset covered only a small part of Ukraine’s domestic fuel demand: 21 percent of combined diesel and gasoline consumption. As much as 64 percent of the country’s combined demand for diesel and gasoline was secured through imports from Belarus and the Russian Federation (also taking advantage of an existing, post-Soviet oil-product pipeline connecting Russia with Ukraine and Hungary) (Argusmedia.com, February 16).

Taking that fact into account (along with other, not mentioned here, sectoral interdependencies between the two countries), it seems fully understandable why Ukraine is likely to be rather reluctant to support economic sanctions against Belarus. However, it is still important to delve into the details, as the problem is of a twofold nature.

On the one hand, a hypothetical embargo on Belarusian fuel supplies to Ukraine (51 percent of gasoline and 30 percent of diesel consumption in 2020Argusmedia.com, February 16) could effectively destabilize the market situation in the latter country, creating an additional burden for the Ukrainian people in the shape of higher fuel prices. The potential risks should be considered relatively high due to a few reasons. First, Ukrainian fuel importers already face the possibility of fuel shortages, as Rosneft’s diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supplies are to be halted from April 1 of this year (Argusmedia.com, March 15). Second, the Ukrainian population as a whole remains economically vulnerable, and the potential domestic fuel price hikes, if significant, could spark protests across the country. Indeed, a similar situation already took place in January of this year, with people going out into the streets to oppose the rise in natural gas tariffs; these demonstrations ultimately forced the government to put a cap on gas prices (Opendemocracy.net, March 15).

On the other hand, the issue of possible sanctions against Belarus should also be analyzed in the context of the associated risks to mobility of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukraine’s military is currently supplied with fuel (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel) via a public e-procurement system, ProZorro. And in 2020, the Armed Forces entered into numerous agreements with as many as ten different domestic companies (Enkorr.ua, February 11). However, due the Ukrainian oil product market’s dependency on imports from Belarus, most of the above-mentioned suppliers also rely on the Belarusian refineries’ production.

In 2020, the total volume of fuel requested by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense (via open procurement processes) reached 200,000 tons, which is around 40 percent more than the year before and the highest figure over the past seven-year period (Enkorr.ua, February 11). From a market-wide perspective, 200,000 tons is not so much; and so a ban on supplies from Belarus would be unlikely to result in extended fuel shortages for the Ukrainian military. Nevertheless, even temporary disruptions in some cases could be problematic, at least in the short term—for instance, were the war in Donbas to escalate rapidly, and/or if Russia simultaneously halted all supplies to Ukraine.

Therefore, Europe and the United States’ possible responses to the mass violence and repressions imposed by Lukashenka’s regime should be properly assessed, with particular attention devoted to whether sanctions could generate additional risks for the Belarusian people or, like in the discussed case, for pro-Western countries in the region. Even if sectoral or economic sanctions are ultimately deemed necessary due to the ongoing situation inside Belarus, they will nevertheless come with a price. And this should not surpass the expected benefits.

Ukrainian Dependency on Belarusian Fuels in Light of the Belarus Sanctions Debate - Jamestown
 

jward

passin' thru
As Russian Tanks Move Toward Ukraine, Earth Braces For Possibility Of World War III Eruption
Written by: Michael Snyder
Published on: April 1, 2021

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At this hour, more Russian military forces are massed near Ukraine’s borders than we have ever seen before. Western military leaders say that they are concerned that the troop movements that we have witnessed in recent days may be leading up to an invasion, and if an invasion does happen it will greatly test the resolve of the Biden administration, EU leaders and NATO brass. In particular, the hawks in the Biden administration would almost certainly not be willing to just sit back and let the Russians conquer all of Ukraine. There would likely be a major response by the United States, and that could set off a chain reaction that could ultimately spark World War 3

So what made the Russians suddenly move a massive invasion force toward Ukraine?
Well, it turns out that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky essentially signed a declaration of war against Russia on March 24th. The document that he signed is known as Decree No. 117/2021, and you won’t read anything about it in the corporate media.
I really had to dig to find Decree No. 117/2021, but eventually, I found it. I took several of the paragraphs at the beginning of the document and I ran them through Google translate…

In accordance with Article 107 of the Constitution of Ukraine, I decree:
1. To put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine of March 11, 2021 “On the Strategy of deoccupation and reintegration of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol” (attached).
2. To approve the Strategy of deoccupation and reintegration of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol (attached).
3. Control over the implementation of the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, enacted by this Decree, shall be vested in the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.
4. This Decree shall enter into force on the day of its publication.
President of Ukraine V.ZELENSKY
March 24, 2021
Basically, this decree makes it the official policy of the government of Ukraine to retake Crimea from Russia.
Of course, the Russians will never hand over Crimea willingly because they consider it to be Russian territory, and so Ukraine would have to take it by force.
This is essentially a declaration of war against Russia, and Zelensky would have never signed such a document without the approval of the Biden administration.
Following the signing of Decree No. 117/2021, we started to see Russian forces pour into Crimea and into separatist-held areas of eastern Ukraine at a staggering rate.
For example, you can watch a column of Russian tanks being transported by rail right here.
Крым, 30 марта pic.twitter.com/yaMoN7leio
— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) March 30, 2021
And you can see a massive column of Russian forces on the Crimea bridge right here.
Russian military equipment on the Crimean Bridge. 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, various trucks, BMP-3 IFVs.
29.03.21 pic.twitter.com/c4W2aNqp5M
— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) March 31, 2021

In addition, it is being reported that the 56th Guards Air Assault Brigade is on the move, and that is not a good sign at all.
For those who don’t know, this isn’t the brigade you want to see on the move.
The 56th Guards Air Assault Brigade is an airborne brigade of the Russian Airborne Troops. The brigade was first formed in 1979 and fought in the Soviet–Afghan War, the 1st & 2nd Chechen War. https://t.co/lAthOpiIvw
— ASB News / MILITARY〽️ (@ASBMilitary) March 31, 2021
The Russians are taking Zelensky’s declaration of war very seriously, but the corporate media in the western world is blaming “Russian aggression” for the increase in tensions in the region.
But the truth is that the Russians never would have made any of these moves if warmongers in the Biden administration had not given Zelensky the green light to sign Decree No. 117/2021.

And what most people in the western world don’t know is that fighting has already begun in Ukraine. The ceasefire that was agreed to in July 2020 has been violated hundreds of times over the past week…
The OSCE’s civilian Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine has reported hundreds of cease-fire violations in recent days. On March 26, four Ukrainian soldiers were killed and two others injured in the eastern part of the country.
The Ukrainian military said its soldiers were hit by a mortar attack it blamed on Russian troops. Russia denies having a military presence in eastern Ukraine, where it backs separatist forces.
At this point, the ceasefire of July 2020 is completely dead.
In response to the renewed fighting, U.S. European Command “has raised its alert status to the highest level”
U.S. European Command has raised its alert status to the highest level after fighting resumed between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian soldiers in the Donetsk Region of eastern Ukraine, marking the end of a June 2020 ceasefire, and Russian forces began building up military equipment along the border.
And we just learned that the chairman of the joint chiefs actually had a telephone call with his counterpart in Russia on Wednesday to address the escalating situation
In a statement on Facebook on Wednesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that at the initiative of the U.S., chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Mark Milley, had a telephone conversation with his counterpart. “Issues of mutual interest were discussed,” the statement said.
In the days ahead, the corporate media in the western world is going to continue talking about “Russian aggression”, and the Russians are going to continue to blame Zelensky and the Biden administration for the rise of tensions in the region.
Ultimately, we could spend countless hours debating who is in the right and who is in the wrong.
But what really matters is keeping this from escalating into a global conflict. Because if someone does something really stupid and the Russians feel a need to send their invasion force into Ukraine, there will be no going back ever.
I have been warning about a future conflict between the United States and Russia for a very long time, and we have never been closer than we are right now.

With Trump in the White House, relations with Russia were relatively stable, but now Joe Biden is in charge.
Biden is a hothead that is showing signs of advanced cognitive decline, and he is surrounded by a team of warmongers that are determined to put Russian President Vladimir Putin in his place.
The inmates are running the asylum, and it won’t take much of a mistake at all for things to go horribly, horribly wrong.
Article permission from Michael Snyder

Posted for fair use
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
I'd be a LOT more confident about where this is headed if I ACTUALLY KNEW WHO the Shotcallers were in DC.
is Nuland in the picture, either openly or covertly? Is Maddy Halfbright ANYWHERE NEAR the levers (or is she even alive??) Is is Barry 1 on speed dial or is he on a continuous intercom with the Executive Bedroom??
Is packyderm's wife right about Lewy Body dementia??

Is there ANY truth out there??

Or am i doomed to hear Jack Nicholson bellowing at that I can't HANDLE the Truth??


On fourth thought, perhaps if I knew who was calling the shots in DC, perhaps I would be a LOT MORE worried...
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
I am counting on General Mud to slow things down for at least the month of April. There is no way for a modern army to move armor, trucks, troop carriers off road effectively before the ground hardens. Period. No sooner than May 1st, and no later than June 1st. Lots of time for Massive forward combat deployments to happen.
A lot of time for continual small arms fire and shelling. General Mud has no impact on fixed positions and trains can bring up enough 152 shells to stir things up. Armor columns rolling into the mud? Nope. Firing 100's of artillery rounds per day, oh yeah.
 

jward

passin' thru
That is the crux of the bulk of my uncertainty as well. I am "ok" ish knowing there's a triumvirate holding my fate in their hands, but as I've been noting for a month or so, I just wish I knew which one of them held the strings to the blowing things up segment. The defense blowing things up, that is.

They're doing good blowing things up across the board with their "FREE MONEY" "FEELZ RULZ" Insanity. I'm guessing it's rice/brennon and whomever bats on that team? Guess Oprah and abrahms are in that bull pen too? O gawd. Haven't slept for two days, and my hair is gorgeous, but... .. ...that thought has me reaching for the lighter and ready to run! :hof:
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Besides, I ordered my butt stock adapter for my Vtac 2 point sling and my sling for my mossberg 20 gauge.
Given the DISMAL delivery times from fedex and ups it will be three weeks to one month before they get here. And no WW3 till I can at least move my weapons. Now if I can only figure out how to deal with the front swivel. :arg:
 

jward

passin' thru
Reschedule, Dougie. We are NOT having those kinda fire works on me birthday!! And, if we DO :: sigh :: I expect plenty of scrumptious strawberries on me cake. : (
 

jward

passin' thru
Tech, thanks for offering your opinion on Michael, I had meant to ask peoples experiences with him. I couldn't say if his stats are correct, but the overall sense this is how the great wars kick off is certainly not limited to him, nor reading as an outlying opinion. Our cookies get crumbled just so, and we risk starting the party in earnest.

One thing I've not understood is why a bunch of countries with such declining birth rates, and folks unfit for service from the actual # of live bodies, wants to go treating lives like cannon fodder? :shr:
 
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