GOV/MIL There is a "Real Risk" The Government Will Shut Down At The End Of The Month

Melodi

Disaster Cat
The government won't EVER freaking shutdown. They may delay getting paid a month but that's it. They will get back pay regardless.
There is no law that says the will, congress has to vote on that every time and the way the congress is so very split, I wouldn't be surprised if they couldn't pass a retroactive pay bill.

Not to mention a lot of people in the lower-paid jobs and/or younger workers start having severe problems with bills after four or more weeks without pay.

Finally, you may know this, but I'm still seeing a lot of confusion, there are two situations happening almost at the same time.

The first is the now all-too-common (used to never happen) stand-off when the two parties refuse to pass funding bills or continuing resolutions to keep the lights on and things working in government agencies. It actually costs MORE money to shut things down every year or three, but it is becoming an almost annual game of "chicken."

The second is the potential for an actual US default if Congress won't pass a bill to extend the debt ceiling. I mean that isn't something any sane person really wants, but the reality is the option of not doing so is worse.

If THAT happens, then technically, there is simply no money and nothing can be paid for. On paper that includes military pay, military operations, electric and water bills for Federal Buildings, Social Security, really anything at all.

In reality, the Federal Reserve (which is NOT part of the government) has a Plan B to try to at least keep the military paid and the military installations running, but not much else, and even that wouldn't last very long.

I hope things don't get to that point, but with this Congress, anything is possible (also with this administration).
 

SageRock

Veteran Member
Fine with me as long as they shut down the Federal Reserve and the Plunge Protection Team at the same time. Oh, wait, they're separately funded. And the Federal Reserve isn't Federal.
 

TKO

Veteran Member
There is no law that says the will, congress has to vote on that every time and the way the congress is so very split, I wouldn't be surprised if they couldn't pass a retroactive pay bill.

Not to mention a lot of people in the lower-paid jobs and/or younger workers start having severe problems with bills after four or more weeks without pay.

Finally, you may know this, but I'm still seeing a lot of confusion, there are two situations happening almost at the same time.

The first is the now all-too-common (used to never happen) stand-off when the two parties refuse to pass funding bills or continuing resolutions to keep the lights on and things working in government agencies. It actually costs MORE money to shut things down every year or three, but it is becoming an almost annual game of "chicken."

The second is the potential for an actual US default if Congress won't pass a bill to extend the debt ceiling. I mean that isn't something any sane person really wants, but the reality is the option of not doing so is worse.

If THAT happens, then technically, there is simply no money and nothing can be paid for. On paper that includes military pay, military operations, electric and water bills for Federal Buildings, Social Security, really anything at all.

In reality, the Federal Reserve (which is NOT part of the government) has a Plan B to try to at least keep the military paid and the military installations running, but not much else, and even that wouldn't last very long.

I hope things don't get to that point, but with this Congress, anything is possible (also with this administration).
Star Trek 1968: "Mr. Spock : Evil does seek to maintain power by suppressing the truth. "
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
My understanding phloydius is both bills have been written. They are just tweakuing them, like the iron dome missiles taken out of one bill, and then put back in.
They know exactly what they want in each bill. The amounts, well the various groups are brawling over that big time.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Wow! not sure why this thread isn't being posted on. The events over the weekend are catastrophic.

First, here is a link confirming the 50 Radical Progressives will vote down the 1.2 Trillion infrastructure bill if Pelosi breaks here word on the $3.5 Trillion other infrastructure bill,.


Pramila Jayapal Flexes Leftist Muscle on Biden Spending Proposals: ‘a Deal Is a Deal’
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) speaks to reporters outside of the U.S. Capitol on September 23, 2021 in Washington, DC. Lawmakers continue to work towards coming to an agreement to pass legislation to fund the government by the new fiscal year deadline on September 30th. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
WENDELL HUSEBØ27 Sep 202121
3:38
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) on Monday flexed her 94-member “Congressional Progressive Caucus” muscle on President Joe Biden’s massive tax and spending proposals.

“A deal is a deal,” Jayapal tweeted about her plan to maintain leverage over the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package. “We’ll proudly pass both bills, but we’ll only vote for the infrastructure package AFTER we get the transformational Build Back Better Act through.”

Jayapal also said the number of Democrat lawmakers joining her in maintaining leverage over Biden’s agenda is growing. “It’s actually increasing, and it’s increasing from members who aren’t just within the Progressive Caucus,” she said about the number of members who will vote “no” on the $1.2 trillion “bipartisan” infrastructure bill.

“I think it’s now probably somewhere around 60,” she added. “They’re members of the [Congressional] Black Caucus, the [Congressional] Hispanic Caucus, the [Congressional] Asian [Pacific American] Caucus, some of whom are not members of the Progressive Caucus, who feel very strongly,” Jayapal said in reference to delivering on the far-left “agenda that the president ran on.”

Jayapal’s position has forced House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to break her signed promise to more temperate Democrats and push the vote for the $1.2 trillion bill from Monday to Thursday. The decision was presumably made to allow more time for Democrats to break their infighting over both the “bipartisan” bill and the reconciliation package.
The $3.5 trillion package, written by self-proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders (I-VT), is not ready for a House vote, as Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) blocked a key tax provision on proscription drug makers that Sanders believes is needed.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
The Government is going to shut down this Friday, September 30th because NEITHER infrastructure bill will pass in either the house or the senate.

And that means the debt ceiling increase will not pass either AND IT EXPIRES OCTOBER 1ST ALSO.
Do not, repeat do not confuse the October drop dead dates, or the November game playing dates with the fact that the US Government will shut down this Friday, and will default this Friday also.

It is HIGHLY LIKELY that ALL Government dispersals will descend into TOTAL CHAOS THIS FRIDAY. The reason being the markets smell a skunk even if they can't see it.

Pelosi et al Demoncrats can't get the job done this week. PREPARE FOR ECONOMIC CHAOS.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
They will play games on October 1st's government shutdown in order to disperse, food stamps, medicare and Social Security payments, plus some other "vital" programs, but the "official government shutdown" will start on October 1st, since they have already begun the planning, and will soon do the implementation of the shut down.
The debt ceiling has ALREADY BEEN BREACHED. So, they will dance around till mid October, etc. I doubt they will have, in the context of a debt default, any money for November Social Security, Medicare, or Food Stamps dispersal.

Yep, I don't see any blinking going on here.

Rock and Roll time, kiddies!:siren:
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Oh, they are in chaos now, with no way out.

The link below says it all :hof:


Report: Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer Gridlocked as Democrat Party Grows ‘Infuriated’
Speaker of the Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) (L) and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) (R) walk with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the U.S. Capitol on September 23, 2021 in Washington, DC. Congress is currently in negotiations to pass a spending bill and raise the debt limit with the threat …
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
WENDELL HUSEBØ27 Sep 2021691
3:36

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) are gridlocked on legislative measures while the Democrat party grows “infuriated.”

“Last week, as all outward appearances suggested gridlock on Capitol Hill,” the New York Times reported about Pelosi and Schumer’s inability “to salvage their $3.5 trillion social policy and climate change bill.”

On the House side, Pelosi is struggling to whip up the majority of Democrats to vote for the $1.2 trillion “bipartisan” bill. Pelosi promised “moderates” a vote on the bill Monday, but Pelosi broke her promise and pushed the vote to Thursday.

The decision was likely due to Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) and her 94-member Congressional Progressive Caucus, which opposed a vote on the “bipartisan” bill for fear of losing leverage to pass the $3.5 trillion package.
WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 12: Representative Pramila Jayapal, a Democrat from Washington, speaks during a House Judiciary Committee hearing December 12, 2019 in Washington, DC. The articles of impeachment charge Trump with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. House Democrats claim that Trump posed a 'clear and present danger' to national security and the 2020 election in his dealings with Ukraine over the past year. (Photo by Alex Edelman -Pool/Getty Images)
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) (Alex Edelman -Pool/Getty Images)

Pelosi is also fumbling over Rep. Stephanie Murphy’s (D-FL) “no” vote “against the Medicare prescription drug bargaining plan put forth by the House”

Democrats, Punchbowl News reported Monday. Pelosi needed the “yes” vote from Murphy to secure funding for the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package.
Murphy stated last week she is unhappy with Democrat infighting, which threatens President Biden’s massive tax and spend policies. “The mistrust that exists currently between members will spread to mistrust between leadership and members, and I think that wouldn’t be healthy for our Congress accomplishing Biden’s agenda,” Murphy said.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) questions witnesses during the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol on July 27, 2021 at the Cannon House Office Building in Washington, DC. Members of law enforcement testified about the attack by supporters of former President Donald Trump on the U.S. Capitol. According to authorities, about 140 police officers were injured when they were trampled, had objects thrown at them, and sprayed with chemical irritants during the insurrection. (Photo by Andrew Harnik-Pool/Getty Images)
Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) (Andrew Harnik-Pool/Getty Images)

“There’s clearly enough moderate opposition to sink” both the reconciliation package and the “bipartisan” bill in Pelosi’s chamber, Punchbowl surmised.

On the Senate side, Schumer is finding it difficult to whip his Democrat majority to pass the reconciliation package upon or if the House sends it to the Senate. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) are opposed to some of the radical provisions in the package, along with the $3.5 trillion price tag. In a vocal manor, they have threatened to derail Biden’s agenda and Schumer’s legacy.

As a result, the angst among Democrats is palpable, as they are growing “frustrated” and “infuriated” with Biden’s lack of action.

“The president needs to pick up the phone and call people,” a Democrat aide “close to the talks” told Politico Playbook. “The person argued that the White House has been in ‘listening mode’ for too long and needs to bang heads to get this vote over the finish line this week.”

“There are a lot of mistakes happening here,” the Democrat aide added, admitting the Democrat Party is scattered with no “game plan going into such a critical” time before the 2022 midterms. “There is no whip effort on the BIF [bipartisan infrastructure bill] yet. Everything is hanging by a thread. Biden needs to be more engaged.”

Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer are hoping the infighting will be resolved before Thursday’s vote on the $1.2 trillion “bipartisan” bill. But this is unlikely due to a government shutdown that will occur Friday.

Democrats can avoid a shutdown by temporarily funding the government. Yet raising the debt ceiling requires Republican support in the Senate, and Republicans are in no mood to help Democrats because doing so would enable Biden’s massive tax and spend agenda.
 

Hawkgirl_70

Veteran Member
I'm not usually a person to make fun or discuss people's looks, (or lack of), but dang!

That Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), in above pic, she is YOU-GLY as all get out!!! BLECH!!!\

P.S. - Those Dems love to use their pointy finger when lecturing, don't they?
I bet they're fun to live with.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Here is the link


Schumer Lashes Out After Senate Republicans Block Debt Limit Hike
By Cristina Laila
Published September 27, 2021 at 6:58pm
508 Comments


The Senate GOP on Monday blocked a measure that would raise the debt ceiling.

The bill needed 60 “yea” votes to overcome the filibuster and open debate.

The vote total was 48 ‘yeas’ to 50 ‘nays’ – and Schumer blew a gasket.

Schumer is expected to bring another vote to the floor later this week before government funding expires at 11:59:59 pm et Thursday.


Republican senators blocked a bill Monday night to keep the government operating and allow federal borrowing, but Democrats aiming to avert a shutdown are likely to try again — at the same time pressing ahead on President Joe Biden’s big plans to reshape government.

The efforts are not necessarily linked, but the fiscal yearend deadline to fund the government past Thursday is bumping up against the Democrats’ desire to make progress on Biden’s expansive $3.5 trillion federal overhaul.

It’s all making for a tumultuous moment for Biden and his party, with consequences certain to shape his presidency and the lawmakers’ own political futures.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said the GOP will not vote to raise the debt ceiling.

For more than two months now Senate Republicans have been completely clear about how this process will play out. So let me make it abundantly clear one more time, we will support a clean continuing resolution that will prevent a government shutdown. …We will not provide Republican votes for raising the debt ceiling,” said McConnell.
Schumer lashed out at Republicans and called the GOP “the party of default.”

Senate Republicans are playing games with the full faith and credit of the United States,” said Schumer adding that Social Security checks, Medicare benefits, veteran benefits and more are all on the chopping block.

Schumer took to the senate floor before the vote and warned it would be catastrophic if Republicans blocked the debt limit hike.
 
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Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
:siren:

I have no idea why Schumer is going to vote on this again this week since NOTHING HAS CHANGED. The same thing in the house, Sanders wrote the 3.5 Trillion infrastructure bill, and I see no way for that to pass either, since if it does, the $1.2 Trillion other infrastructure will be voted down. Quibbling over the amounts, 1.5 trillion, 1.2 trillion, 3.5 trillion, or 2.5 trillion won't make any difference.

One thing I have been fasting and praying about is for the demoncrats to act like demoncrats, and so they have. Let them default and watch what the blacks do when they really do cut the food stamps.
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
They SHOULD blame Synema and Manchin, since if they HAD voted then Kamal-a would have had to do the ONE thing she has proven competent at. Voting to break a tie.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Well, Dozdoats, as INCREDIBLE as it sounds, I'm going with a Thursday at midnight shutdown because the egos are involved now, and the ideologies, and the agendas, and the demoncrats are going to ride this down to the ground, just like Slim Pickens on the nuke in Dr. Strangelove.

Seriously, the internal dynamics of the demoncrats REQUIRE them to fight tooth and nail for this, and that crazy bitch Jaypal, from a Seattle district I guess, now has about 80? or so and she wants her goodies in the Sanders written $3.5 Trillion bill and if she can't get them, she is going to throw a hissy fit and take her marbles home.

Incredible, just incredible.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
I have a front row seat to the economic collapse of the USA, all in color, complete with raving lunatics, mentally unbalanced psychos ranting and raving. Biden was sent in to destroy the USA, Meemur, and by God he has done it, right down to the last little itsy, bitsy, teeny, tiny, part of what our country existed on January 20th, 2020. Biden even freed the Chinese traitor and spy exec for his pal Trudeau.

I think it will come quickly now, once that the idea of debt default, which despite what EVERYBODY says or thinks happens Thursday at midnight, with all the other :poop: being federale mind games, and bloated money, and assorted farces and gimmicks, that just extend the farce for another week or two or four or whatever.

Meemur and Dozdoats, when Schumer gets on the Senate floor and starts to make threats about cutting off medicare and Social Security then it is game over and all their is to it.
 

John Deere Girl

Veteran Member
I have a front row seat to the economic collapse of the USA, all in color, complete with raving lunatics, mentally unbalanced psychos ranting and raving. Biden was sent in to destroy the USA, Meemur, and by God he has done it, right down to the last little itsy, bitsy, teeny, tiny, part of what our country existed on January 20th, 2020. Biden even freed the Chinese traitor and spy exec for his pal Trudeau.

I think it will come quickly now, once that the idea of debt default, which despite what EVERYBODY says or thinks happens Thursday at midnight, with all the other :poop: being federale mind games, and bloated money, and assorted farces and gimmicks, that just extend the farce for another week or two or four or whatever.

Meemur and Dozdoats, when Schumer gets on the Senate floor and starts to make threats about cutting off medicare and Social Security then it is game over and all their is to it.
I know the shutdown would happen at midnight Thursday, but where are you seeing the default at midnight on Thursday? I understood the default could happen as early as mid October, not the first.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Well, it depends on how you define default, John Deere Girl.

The Federales fiscal/budge year ends on September 30th of 2021. The next federal/fiscal budget year begins on October 1st. Of which NO MONEY has been allocated for any thing. It all comes to a screeching halt, economics wise. Unless the house and/or senate take some specific action a continuing resolution for example, that adds money, say a month, or two, into December. They were using December 3rd for the "clean" continuing resolution, with JUST a sixty day, add whatever amount that includes Hurricane Ida relief and things like that. Now that ain't gonna happen either.

So, at midnight Thursday the USA officially defaults because first, the budget expired, and no money has been allocated for anything October 1st or later.

Next, we get to the Debt ceiling, some $28 Trillion or so, all of which has been spent, or allocated. We then have no budget resolution allocating any federal money after October 1st, and NO increase above the $28 Trillion, so in both cases THE USA IS OFFICIALLY IN DEBT DEFAULT AND HAS NO BUDGET.

Again, they, Yellen et all have been foaming in the mouth with all of their "extraordinary measures," and assorted bull:poop:, they have had the whore media spewing out the last few days. And like I said, it is like you can SMELL the skunk, but you can't SEE the skunk.

Now, whatever Yellen or any of that lot of loonies say the USA government will default at midnight Thursday. They will play games, like some form of juggling, and will say the Debt is okay, well it is not.
The actual cash will run out mid October or whatever, but that is just smoke an mirrors. The Debt limit was breached, which means they are using money that doesn't exist. Anyway, it doesn't matter in either case.

They will get the food stamps etc out in October since they are raiding various funds, and thus preventing a "federal default." Well, I take the view that if you have to use money, allocated for another purpose, to pay people food stamps this month, you are in default. Besides, even that little shuck and jive crap will be measured in weeks, as all of it will collapse by Thanksgiving at the absolute latest.

It is called a technical default, and Yellen et al, have been playing mind games.

We will indeed default this Thursday, but we will no doubt cover it with still more lies.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Wowser! Talk about RATS leaving the sinking Federale Ship, Night Driver. The fact that BOTH of them are leaving, due to stock buying ethics, :lkick:is the cover story. They see what is going to happen Thursday at midnight and are BAILING OUT.

If I had any doubt about the US defaulting Thursday at midnight, these two clowns running away seals it. Both of them are leaving October 8th, a mere 7 days after the defaults.


Kaplan Joins Rosengren In Retiring Amid Fed Ethics Probe
Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, SEP 27, 2021 - 04:03 PM
Update (1550ET): Just minutes before the market closed on Monday, the Dallas Fed Bank CEO and President Robert Kaplan announced that he is planning to retire on Oct. 8, 2021.
The decision comes shortly after we sent the following tweet (in jest, we might add).


In a statement, Kaplan said it had been his "great honor" to lead the Dallas Fed for the last six years. But unlike Rosengren who blamed health issues for his decision to retire, Kaplan noted in his statement to the public that his recent trading controversy had created "a distraction to the Federal Reserve’s execution of that vital work."
It has been my great honor to serve as the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas for the past six years and to work with the superbly talented professionals at the Bank who are helping to build a stronger economy for all communities in the Eleventh District and our nation. It also has been a privilege to work with my Federal Reserve System colleagues and serve as a member of the Federal Open Market Committee. The Federal Reserve is approaching a critical point in our economic recovery as it deliberates the future path of monetary policy. Unfortunately, the recent focus on my financial disclosure risks becoming a distraction to the Federal Reserve’s execution of that vital work. For that reason, I have decided to retire as President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, effective Friday, October 8, 2021. During my tenure, I have adhered to all Federal Reserve ethical standards and policies. My securities investing activities and disclosures met Bank compliance rules and standards. I am proud of the work we have done at the Dallas Fed during the past six years and am confident that my colleagues will continue to play a vital role in supporting our nation’s economic recovery.
Powell released a separate statement celebrating Kaplan's career after releasing a separate statement celebrating Rosengren's career earlier in the day.
We are grateful for Rob’s six years of service as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and as a valued colleague in the FOMC. He has been a passionate and forceful public voice on a wide range of issues, including the critical value of early childhood education and literacy. In addition, he strengthened the Bank’s economic research and played a very constructive role in Systemwide management, budget and technology efforts. We wish him well.
Other senior Fed officials released a combined statement.
Under Rob’s leadership, the Dallas Fed has elevated its role as a convener to bring interested people together to solve problems that are restricting the economic performance of their communities. Rob was able to accomplish these things by emphasizing talent development at the Dallas Fed with a focus on diversity, equity and inclusion.
Rob made the decision to retire as President and CEO of the Bank, effective October 8 to eliminate any distractions to the Federal Reserve System surrounding his personal investment activities. Upon joining the Bank, Rob systematically sold all of his personal holdings related to financial institutions over which the Federal Reserve had regulatory oversight or were otherwise restricted. Rob also conducted his investment activities in accordance with the rules and policies of the Federal Reserve System.
So, while the Board of the Dallas Fed understands Rob’s motivation to put the Federal Reserve System above any personal considerations, we accept his retirement with deep regret and believe the nation and the Eleventh District will feel the impact of the loss of his leadership.
The Dallas Fed board thanks Rob for his many contributions and wishes him the best in his future endeavors. He will be missed.
Fortunately for the Dallas Fed, First Vice President Meredith Black has graciously agreed to delay her impending retirement to serve as interim president during this transition.


The dual resignations also come just days after The Wall Street Journal reported that two advocacy groups and a former Fed adviser demanded that The Fed should fire at least one (and perhaps both) of the Fed officials over their "pandemic profiteering trading conduct."
Better Markets, a group that pushes for tighter financial regulation; the left-leaning Center for Popular Democracy’s Fed Up campaign; and Andrew Levin, a former top Federal Reserve staff member and now a professor at Dartmouth College, are calling for the Fed to take action against Messrs. Kaplan and Rosengren.
“It’s time for the Fed to do what leaders are supposed to do: Lead by example,” Better Markets president and chief executive officer Dennis Kelleher wrote in a letter sent to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday.
Messrs. Kaplan and Rosengren, both should resign or be fired “for having lost the confidence and trust of the American people and, one would think, the Chairman of the U.S. central bank,” Mr. Kelleher said.
As The Fed is about to shift policy regimes into a taper of its unprecedented fre-money-gasm-machines, Mr. Kelleher added:
“This is no time for the American people to lose confidence and trust in the Fed, which must be above reproach, not set the lowest bar for ethical and legal conduct,”

Some Fed watchers said the trading raises questions about who policy was designed to help.
“There are a lot of reasons that working people are right to wonder if the Fed has their best interests in mind,” said Benjamin Dulchin, campaign director for Fed Up.
“These trades are only the most obvious reason, but it makes it harder for the Fed to do its job,” Mr. Dulchin said, adding if he were Mr. Kaplan or Mr. Rosengren, “I would resign.”
The timing of both resignations couldn't be worse for Powell, who will now be forced to explain them to the Senate Banking Committee during his testimony tomorrow. The toughest question for Powell, according to CNBC's Steve Leisman, will be explaining why those two had to retire while the Fed Chairman gets to hang on to his seat (despite opposition to his reappointment by a group of progressive Dems from both the House and Senate).
* * *
In other words, Kaplan copped the the air of hypocrisy created by the he and his colleagues trading (and the public backlash to it).
A few weeks ago, Kaplan and Rosengren promised to dump their entire equity portfolios following the "outrage" generated by their trading scandals (Kaplan executed the most and largest trades among his colleagues, often making trades in the multi-million-dollar territory.

Some joked at the time that the whole controversy was a setup to allow the Fed leaders to dump their portfolios at the top.
The big question now is what will Fed Chairman Jerome Powell do? Will he also step aside? Or will he hang on to his post? Speaking during the Q&A last Wednesday, Powell said he had "nothing for you on that today", a reference to his reappointment as Fed Chairman and whether the trading scandal might have an impact on that? At another point during the briefing, Powell said much of the trading conflicts he raised involved small lots of securities, like muni bonds he purchased years ago, long before he could have foreseen that the central bank wold be buying munis as part of the Fed's emergency pandemic-inspired asset-purchase program.
At this point, the Fed should hire Ted Lasso to help "motivate" the remaining Fed branch bank heads (and board of governors' members) to avoid their day-trading losses.

* * *

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, one of the senior Fed officials caught up in the trading disclosures scandal earlier this month, has abruptly decided to retire on Sept. 30, newswires report.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren
His first vice president, Kenneth Montgomery, will assume the role of interim president and CEO of the Boston Fed bank until a permanent replacement can be found. But crucially, as of now, Montgomery will be the one casting the Boston Fed's vote on the FOMC starting next year, unless a permanent replacement for Rosengren can be found more quickly.

While many have already likely assumed Rosengren's departure is related to the trading ethics scandal (and he was not the only senior Fed official to have been ensnared, with his colleague Robert Kaplan in Dallas and even Powell to an extent), according to Rosengren, he has a kidney condition, and staving off dialysis is dependent on him making "lifestyle changes". Previously, he had planned on retiring in June 2022, in according with the mandatory retirement at 65 rule.
In a message to the Bank’s staff, Dr. Rosengren revealed for the first time that he qualified for the kidney transplant list in June of 2020, during the pandemic, upon the worsening of a kidney condition he has had for many years. Delaying the need for dialysis might be improved if he makes lifestyle changes now to lessen the risks of his condition.
Rosengren said, “It has been an honor to serve at the Federal Reserve System, in a job where one can be constantly engaged in pursuing the economic and financial well-being of the country and New England. I know that my colleagues will build on our progress, and continue making a difference for the public we serve.”
There were notably calls from some for the officials involved to step down from the Fed in the wake of the ethics scandal. Chair Powell has already ordered a formal review.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has already released a statement: "Eric has distinguished himself time and again during more than three decades of dedicated public service in the Federal Reserve System. He led the Fed's work in managing several emergency lending facilities in two separate periods of economic crisis. In addition to his monetary policy insights, Eric brought a relentless focus on how best to ensure the stability of the financial system. My colleagues and I will miss him."
As has Dr. Christina Paxson, the president of Brown University and chair of the Bank’s board of directors: "Eric’s leadership has been outstanding on so many fronts. As a result of his tireless work, the Bank is making cutting-edge contributions across all its functions, and positively affecting the economic and financial security of people in New England and the nation. His commitment to ‘Main Street’ economic issues and opportunity for all has inspired his staff, colleagues, and countless others to innovate in service to the public. And let me add that Eric is one of those rare people who combines the highest standards of intellectual rigor with the warmest collegiality, inclusiveness, and humanity. The directors wish him the very best as he focuses on improving his health."
Rosengren's premature departure from the FOMC will have a major impact on the pace of Fed policy since he would have become a voter in 2022, and is known for his hawkish stance.
And as for Rosengren's kidney issue, we can't help but wonder: is this a recent development? It's not for us to speculate but the timing certainly seems...curious.

While we trust Rosengren's health issue is serious, some couldn't resist cracking a joke (with a kernel of truth: Rosengren agreed to sell his entire portfolio of stocks after the trading disclosures).

Readers can find Rosengren's complete resignation letter to Powell below:
20210927 Rosengren Letter to Chair Announcing Retirement by Zerohedge on Scribd

As far as succession goes, the Boston Fed's search committee will consist of the six non-banker board of directors members, and will be chaired by Dr. Paxson. According to US = law, only directors not affiliated with regulated banks or financial institutions are eligible to help select a Federal Reserve Bank president. The choice must be approved by the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Here is more info about the Senate voting down the debt increase bill.


Senate Republicans Vote Down Pelosi's Debt Ceiling Bill, As Expected
Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, SEP 27, 2021 - 07:06 PM
Having detailed the 'debt limit game of chicken' last week, tonight's vote in the Senate is exactly what was expected.
Senate Republicans on Monday voted down the House-passed bill to fund the government through Dec. 3 and raise the debt limit.
The final vote was 48-50 (60 votes were needed to advance the measure), with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) changing his vote from Yes to No so he could later bring the bill back up for a vote.

"I changed my vote from yes to no in order to reserve the option of additional action on the House-passed legislation. Keeping the government open and preventing a default is vital to our country's future and we'll be taking further action to prevent this from happening this week," Schumer said.
All Republicans voted against the bill as expected.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has said he will vote for the "clean" continuing resolution if Democrats' move forward with that plan.
“For more than two months now Senate Republicans have been completely clear about how this process will play out. So let me make it abundantly clear one more time, we will support a clean continuing resolution that will prevent a government shutdown. ...We will not provide Republican votes for raising the debt ceiling,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

Congress is now just 72 hours away from a potential shutdown, and as Goldman's Alec Phillips wrote today, assuming that Republicans do not vote for a debt limit suspension in the near-term, this seems likely to come to head in the second half of October.
The deadline is not entirely clear, but we think it is most likely to fall in late October.
We expect the Treasury to provide a specific projection sometime after Oct. 1.
A deadline still a few weeks off makes it less likely that Congress will deal with it in the coming week.
If not, the debt limit is likely to get tangled up in other issues later in October, including another shutdown deadline (if Democrats decide to extend spending authority for a few weeks instead of a couple of months) and the debate over the pending fiscal packages.
The most likely scenario seems to be that Democrats will need to pass a debt limit increase via the reconciliation process with only Democratic votes, but there are several procedural and political disadvantages to doing this.
With no attractive options, it is hard to see Congress acting on the debt limit until the deadline for action seems imminent.

The market is already pricing in issues until mid-November (and the bid for short-term debt has sent the early October bill yields negative...

We can already hear the virtue-signaling cries from Schumer and Pelosi over the fact that Republicans are about to plunge America into its darkest period of history ever (well at least since the January 6th amble-around-the-Capitol).
Schumer has already called the GOP position “unhinged,” arguing that there was a choice between “preserving our full faith and credit or vote in favor of an unprecedented default.”
They are “deliberately sabotaging our country’s ability to pay the bills and likely causing the country’s first-ever default in American history,” Schumer said.
To pre-empt those anguished comments, here is Nancy Pelosi herself from January/February 2018...



“Holding the debt limit hostage ... is a dangerous, illogical, and irresponsible way to express that concern,” the Democratic lawmakers wrote.
His response - in the words of Nancy Pelosi - #DoYourJob!
29,062132
 

SageRock

Veteran Member
The latest official date from the Secretary of the Treasury is now October 18th. If so, that means that some October Social Security payments will not be made. Here is the link and the text of the letter sent to Congress:

Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen Sends Letter to Congressional Leadership on the Debt Limit

September 28, 2021

WASHINGTON – Today, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen sent a letter to Congressional leadership regarding the debt limit.

The full text of the letter and it is also available below.

The Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Speaker
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515

Dear Madam Speaker:

I am writing to follow up on my previous letters regarding the debt limit and to provide additional information regarding the Department of the Treasury’s ability to continue to finance the operations of the U.S. government.

In my September 8 letter, I explained that Treasury’s cash and extraordinary measures would most likely be exhausted sometime during the month of October. Based on our most recent information, including tax payments associated with the September 15 deadline for third quarter estimated tax payments for businesses and individuals, I am now able to further refine that projection.

We now estimate that Treasury is likely to exhaust its extraordinary measures if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by October 18. At that point, we expect Treasury would be left with very limited resources that would be depleted quickly. It is uncertain whether we could continue to meet all the nation’s commitments after that date. While this is our best estimate, the federal government’s cash flows are subject to unavoidable variability. For example, the government’s daily gross cash flow (excluding financing) over the past year averages nearly $50 billion per day and has exceeded $300 billion. As a result, it is important to remember that estimates regarding how long our remaining extraordinary measures and cash may last can unpredictably shift forward or backward. This uncertainty underscores the critical importance of not waiting to raise or suspend the debt limit. The full faith and credit of the United States should not be put at risk.

Furthermore, we know from previous debt limit impasses that waiting until the last minute can cause serious harm to business and consumer confidence, raise borrowing costs for taxpayers, and negatively impact the credit rating of the United States for years to come. Failure to act promptly could also result in substantial disruptions to financial markets, as heightened uncertainty can exacerbate volatility and erode investor confidence.

I am also writing to notify you, pursuant to 5 U.S.C. §§ 8348(l)(2), of my determination that, by reason of the statutory debt limit, I will continue to be unable to fully invest the portion of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF) not immediately required to pay beneficiaries, and that a “debt issuance suspension period,” previously determined to end on September 30, 2021, will continue through October 18, 2021. As a result, the Treasury Department will continue to suspend additional investments of amounts credited to, and will redeem an additional portion of the investment held by, the CSRDF, as authorized by law.

In addition, because the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act of 2006 provides that investments in the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund (PSRHBF) shall be made in the same manner as investments for the CSRDF, the Treasury Department will also continue to suspend additional investments of amounts credited to, and will redeem an additional portion of the investments held by, the PSRHBF. By law, the CSRDF and PSRHBF will be made whole once the debt limit is increased or suspended. Federal retirees and employees will be unaffected by these actions.

Again, I respectfully urge Congress to protect the full faith and credit of the United States by acting as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

Janet L. Yellen


Identical letter sent to:

The Honorable Kevin McCarthy, House Republican Leader
The Honorable Charles E. Schumer, Senate Majority Leader
The Honorable Mitch McConnell, Senate Republican Leader

cc:
The Honorable Richard E. Neal, Chairman, House Committee on Ways and Means
The Honorable Kevin Brady, Ranking Member, House Committee on Ways and Means
The Honorable Ron Wyden, Chairman, Senate Committee on Finance
The Honorable Mike Crapo, Ranking Member, Senate Committee on Finance
 

Valann

Contributing Member
The latest official date from the Secretary of the Treasury is now October 18th. If so, that means that some October Social Security payments will not be made. Here is the link and the text of the letter sent to Congress:

Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen Sends Letter to Congressional Leadership on the Debt Limit

September 28, 2021

WASHINGTON – Today, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen sent a letter to Congressional leadership regarding the debt limit.

The full text of the letter and it is also available below.

The Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Speaker
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515

Dear Madam Speaker:

I am writing to follow up on my previous letters regarding the debt limit and to provide additional information regarding the Department of the Treasury’s ability to continue to finance the operations of the U.S. government.

In my September 8 letter, I explained that Treasury’s cash and extraordinary measures would most likely be exhausted sometime during the month of October. Based on our most recent information, including tax payments associated with the September 15 deadline for third quarter estimated tax payments for businesses and individuals, I am now able to further refine that projection.

We now estimate that Treasury is likely to exhaust its extraordinary measures if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by October 18. At that point, we expect Treasury would be left with very limited resources that would be depleted quickly. It is uncertain whether we could continue to meet all the nation’s commitments after that date. While this is our best estimate, the federal government’s cash flows are subject to unavoidable variability. For example, the government’s daily gross cash flow (excluding financing) over the past year averages nearly $50 billion per day and has exceeded $300 billion. As a result, it is important to remember that estimates regarding how long our remaining extraordinary measures and cash may last can unpredictably shift forward or backward. This uncertainty underscores the critical importance of not waiting to raise or suspend the debt limit. The full faith and credit of the United States should not be put at risk.

Furthermore, we know from previous debt limit impasses that waiting until the last minute can cause serious harm to business and consumer confidence, raise borrowing costs for taxpayers, and negatively impact the credit rating of the United States for years to come. Failure to act promptly could also result in substantial disruptions to financial markets, as heightened uncertainty can exacerbate volatility and erode investor confidence.

I am also writing to notify you, pursuant to 5 U.S.C. §§ 8348(l)(2), of my determination that, by reason of the statutory debt limit, I will continue to be unable to fully invest the portion of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF) not immediately required to pay beneficiaries, and that a “debt issuance suspension period,” previously determined to end on September 30, 2021, will continue through October 18, 2021. As a result, the Treasury Department will continue to suspend additional investments of amounts credited to, and will redeem an additional portion of the investment held by, the CSRDF, as authorized by law.

In addition, because the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act of 2006 provides that investments in the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund (PSRHBF) shall be made in the same manner as investments for the CSRDF, the Treasury Department will also continue to suspend additional investments of amounts credited to, and will redeem an additional portion of the investments held by, the PSRHBF. By law, the CSRDF and PSRHBF will be made whole once the debt limit is increased or suspended. Federal retirees and employees will be unaffected by these actions.

Again, I respectfully urge Congress to protect the full faith and credit of the United States by acting as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

Janet L. Yellen


Identical letter sent to:

The Honorable Kevin McCarthy, House Republican Leader
The Honorable Charles E. Schumer, Senate Majority Leader
The Honorable Mitch McConnell, Senate Republican Leader

cc:
The Honorable Richard E. Neal, Chairman, House Committee on Ways and Means
The Honorable Kevin Brady, Ranking Member, House Committee on Ways and Means
The Honorable Ron Wyden, Chairman, Senate Committee on Finance
The Honorable Mike Crapo, Ranking Member, Senate Committee on Finance

And when it gets close to the social security payments being withheld the republicans will cave, nevermind that the SS payments should be the priority over, say, other programs where nothing is paid in by the recipients.
 

TxGal

Day by day
I think I'm right in that Fed retirees and Social Security recipients will be receiving their payments as usual, health benefits/Medicare/Medicaid will continue uninterrupted, etc. The Treasury just won't be adding to those giant appropriations, only adding what is needed to pay beneficiaries (recipients). I believe this also will mean SNAP benefits will continue (the old food stamps program).

I think the USPS is classed as essential services and will continue to function as it does now.
 
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