ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

[northern watch]

U.S. Pacific Command‏Verified account @PacificCommand · 2h2 hours ago

#TheodoreRoosevelt #CarrierStrikeGroup is underway training for future deployments in @USPacificFleet

 

[Housecarl]

It might be getting close to time to pack.
SS

he Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab

NEW: The Strategic Rocket Forces of #NorthKorea have issued a follow up statement to their earlier threats of a rocket attack on #Guam.

Steve Herman‏Verified account @W7VOA 30m30 minutes ago

Steve Herman Retweeted Steve Herman

KCNA: #DPRK seriously examining "simultaneous fire" of four Hwasong-12 IRBMs towards #Guam.https://twitter.com/IntelCrab?lang=en

https://twitter.com/Joshua_Pollack/status/895407023403225089

Joshua H. Pollack‏
@Joshua_Pollack
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Joshua H. Pollack Retweeted Aldin ����
Read it again! They're talking about a test, overflying Japan and bracketing ("enveloping") Guam.Joshua H. Pollack added,

Aldin ���� @aldin_ww
New much more detailed statement from #NorthKorea commander of the Strategic Force. #DPRK considering strikes at #Guam with 4 HS-12 IRBMs.
3:10 PM - 9 Aug 2017
123 Retweets 80 Likes The Intel CrabChris DudasAnton DrozhzhinBilly BuddKelsey D. AthertonStrategic SentinelAldin ����Sue StoneJohn Reissenweber
8 replies 123 retweets 80 likes
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Joshua H. Pollack‏ @Joshua_Pollack 59m59 minutes ago
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Replying to @Joshua_Pollack
This is an extraordinarily blunt explanation of their earlier, somewhat confusing statement.
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Joshua H. Pollack‏ @Joshua_Pollack 58m58 minutes ago
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KCNA's poor English is becoming genuinely dangerous. This is not how missile test notifications should be issued!
1 reply 27 retweets 17 likes
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Joshua H. Pollack‏ @Joshua_Pollack 54m54 minutes ago
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Much better to have a hotline for notifications.
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Joshua H. Pollack‏ @Joshua_Pollack 53m53 minutes ago
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For the NKs to telegraph a move like this is extraordinary. But it's probably their way of trying not to trigger a war.
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Joshua H. Pollack‏ @Joshua_Pollack 52m52 minutes ago
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The comparisons to the Cuban Missile Crisis can be set aside. It's more like the 1995 Taiwan Strait Crisis. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis …
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Joshua H. Pollack‏ @Joshua_Pollack 50m50 minutes ago
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If the NKs really do launch to within 30-40 km of Guam, the usual caveats about not being able to try to shoot down the tests may not apply.
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Joshua H. Pollack‏ @Joshua_Pollack 48m48 minutes ago
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The reason you can't shoot down a test is that it doesn't enter a defended area. But that wouldn't be the case with "bracketing fire."
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Joshua H. Pollack‏ @Joshua_Pollack 44m44 minutes ago
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Finally, this explanatory statement indicates that no decision has yet been taken. KJU alone can decide. (END)
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Cast‏ @thenamecast 56m56 minutes ago
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Replying to @Joshua_Pollack
So if google translate gets better, there's no nuclear war. Got it.
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Doug Pologe‏ @DougPologe 35m35 minutes ago
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Replying to @Joshua_Pollack
No, not just a test: "in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam"
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Aldin ����‏ @aldin_ww 59m59 minutes ago
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Replying to @Joshua_Pollack
I think we can expect new launch soon, not at Guam per se, but rather training showcase run from #DPRK. Just to prove their point.
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Shesha Sifting‏ @SheshaSifting 48m48 minutes ago
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Replying to @Joshua_Pollack
Ummm ... point taken but will the US government definitely interpret this as a test!? Please say yes ...
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Liberal Patriot‏ @LiberPatriot 22m22 minutes ago
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How can they definitely know there aren't warheads there? They'll have no choice but to attempt shoot down
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Shesha Sifting‏ @SheshaSifting 20m20 minutes ago
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Yeah, I asked before he clarified that in the same thread ...
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Tim Hogan‏ @TimInHonolulu 6m6 minutes ago
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Replying to @Joshua_Pollack
Didn't say test. You might infer it. Just that the goal was to hit near Guam. If he launches I'll bet 10 min. Pyongyang gets a Trident D5.

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The Gunslinger‏ @Gunslinger_V1 7m7 minutes ago
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Replying to @Joshua_Pollack @BlogsofWar
And what if a missile has a fault and comes down on a populated area of Japan? ��
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Bob teh Beagle‏ @BobtehBeagle 13m13 minutes ago
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Replying to @Joshua_Pollack @joshtpm
Thats the way I read it yesterday. You are the first I have seen that didnt go with the "attacking Guam" story.

 

[Cascade Failure]

Notice they're talking about a conventional weapons only capability platform...

I thought the B model was still nuke capable?

 

[Housecarl]

I thought the B model was still nuke capable?

No they that was removed per the last Russian-US arms control agreement....

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://warontherocks.com/2017/08/bombs-over-pyongyang-the-windows-already-closed/

BOMBS OVER PYONGYANG? THE WINDOW’S ALREADY CLOSED

VAN JACKSON AND MIRA RAPP-HOOPER
AUGUST 9, 2017

Don’t call it a comeback! In this episode of “Pacific Pundit,” we explain the many perils of preventive attacks against North Korea. Our history segment discusses the crazy options the U.S. considered to prevent China from going nuclear in the 1960s. In a satirical role play with Mira Rapp-Hooper (Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center and the Center for a New American Security), we walk through every argument that war hawks might make in favor of bombing North Korea. We also discuss research that highlights the theories and risks of preventive attacks against North Korea, and urges making the avoidance of nuclear conflict the foremost policy goal for the Korean Peninsula.

Podcast

Music: Carl Ranson Vorpahl; Producer: Tre Hester; Image: Leah Garton, Department of Defense

 

[Cascade Failure]

No they that was removed per the last Russian-US arms control agreement....

Well its not my first time being wrong. Thanks.

 

[northern watch]

From Shacknasty Shagrat

Steve HermanþVerified account @W7VOA 30m30 minutes ago

Steve Herman Retweeted Steve Herman

KCNA: #DPRK seriously examining "simultaneous fire" of four Hwasong

The question is "Is this going to be a night time launch? As a test of battle conditions?

 

[Countrymouse]

Aldin
����‏ @aldin_ww
New much more detailed statement from #NorthKorea commander of the Strategic Force. #DPRK considering strikes at #Guam with 4 HS-12 IRBMs.

I appreciate the screen-shot, but is there no LINK so we can read this announcement easier? It is VERY small and hard-to-read, and I fear many may just skip over it.

Here's a transcription, until we get a LINK:


General Kim Rak Gyom, commander of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army, released the following statement on August 9:

As already clarified, the Strategic Force of the KPA is seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the US.

On Tuesday, the KPA Strategic Force through a statement of its spokesman fully warned the US against its all-round sanctions on the DPRK and moves of maximizing military threats to it. But the US president at a gold links again let out a load of nonsense about "fire and fury," failing to grasp the on-going grave situation. This is extremely getting on the nerves of the infuriated Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA.

It seems that he has not yet understood the statement.

Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him. This is the judgment made by the service personnel of the KPA Strategic Force.

The military action the KPA is about to take will be an effective remedy for restraining the frantic moves of the US in the southern part of the Korean peninsula and its vicinity.

The Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA Strategic Force are replete with a strong determination to fully demonstrate once again the invincible might of the force, which has developed into a reliable nuclear force of the Worker's Party of Korea and the world's strongest strike service, through the planned enveloping strike targeting the US imperialist bases of aggression.

This unprecedented step is to give stronger confidence in certain victory and courage to the Korean people and help them witness the wretched plight of the US imperialists.

The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA will cross the sky above SHimane, Hiroshima, and Koichi Prefectures of Japan. They will fly 3 356.7 km for 1.065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 km away from Guam.

The KPA Strategic Force will finally complete the plan until mid-August and report it to the commander-in-chief of the DPRK Nuclear Force and wait for his order.

We keep closely watching the speech and behavior of the US.

 

[onetimer]

Thanks CM

It was a twitter pic and yes, hard to read.

 

[northern watch]

The Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab · 31m31 minutes ago

Replying to @IntelCrab

Said plan would involve the launching of B-1B bombers; likely via the @36WingPA in #Guam.

 

[minkykat]

So what the...they will do this by mid August or they will do so now and wait for a reply until mid August?

 

[Countrymouse]

So what the...they will do this by mid August or they will do so now and wait for a reply until mid August?

Media in my area is interpreting it that they WILL FIRE THE FOUR MISSILES some time next week---


they will fly the missiles RIGHT OVER Japan and land NEAR Guam--as a "warning" to the US


AFTER that, the "commander in chief" (KOREAN, not ours) will "make a decision" what FURTHER action to take, based on the US response.



Apparently he expects us to run away yelping like a scalded dog.....

 

[Vegas321]

They fire one or a dozen towards Guam, and even if they are test with no warheads. That constitutes an act of war. I would expect Trump, and his top generals to hit back hard. REAL HARD
The sheep in South Korea better get with it fast, they are going to be in this hell of a battle, no matter what.

The Norks are not the normal type of people who care about loss of life. They practice torture and murder every day.

99% chance a MAJOR, very high casualty war with the Norks will occur.

If not Guam, it will be Hawaii, Alaska, or the Pacific coast will be the target of the next launch. I don't think we are going to see anymore High Altitude test from them in the near future. They are going to aim at our doorstep. Also, new nuke test should be coming again soon.

 

[Sacajawea]

I struggled with the translation some too. It reads to me, as if they're saying it will take a couple weeks to finalize their plan, which then needs approval from the "dear leader". Not entirely sure that's what they're saying; just how it reads to me.

 

[Housecarl]

They fire one or a dozen towards Guam, and even if they are test with no warheads. That constitutes an act of war. I would expect Trump, and his top generals to hit back hard. REAL HARD
The sheep in South Korea better get with it fast, they are going to be in this hell of a battle, no matter what.

The Norks are not the normal type of people who care about loss of life. They practice torture and murder every day.

99% chance a MAJOR, very high casualty war with the Norks will occur.

If not Guam, it will be Hawaii, Alaska, or the Pacific coast will be the target of the next launch. I don't think we are going to see anymore High Altitude test from them in the near future. They are going to aim at our doorstep. Also, new nuke test should be coming again soon.

I'm guessing we might see one more high apogee test launch for both the launch vehicle/ICBM and any tweeks they may have made to their RVs.

After that, IMHO if they conduct another high apogee test, it will culminate in a high altitude nuclear weapons test detonation at whatever maximum yield the North Koreans can attain, and it will be over North Korean territory.

 

[Red Sky]

No more NK rockets should be allowed to leave NK air space, whether carrying a warhead or not. Enough is enough.

 

[northern watch]

The Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab · 33m33 minutes ago

Former #US ambassador to the #UN says #NorthKorea catching #US off guard is "a massive intelligence failure."

 

[Zoner]

Martin Armstrong is saying this weekend is a strong possibility for conflict.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/north-korea-beware-august-2017/

 

[northern watch]

Mike Valerio‏Verified account @MikevWUSA · 2h2 hours ago

Happening Now - Rally Against Nuclear War at the White House.
This is the start of a 24-hour vigil #NorthKoreaNukes @WUSA9

 

[Housecarl]

Mike Valerio‏Verified account @MikevWUSA · 2h2 hours ago

Happening Now - Rally Against Nuclear War at the White House.
This is the start of a 24-hour vigil #NorthKoreaNukes @WUSA9

Well that didn't take too long....

 

[homepark]

Which ambassador, I wonder. There is no intel failure. DoD has known of the NORKS capabilities for quite some time. The will at the top is what has been lacking.

 

[northern watch]

From Shacknasty Shagrat

Steve Herman‏Verified account @W7VOA 30m30 minutes ago

Steve Herman Retweeted Steve Herman

KCNA: #DPRK seriously examining "simultaneous fire" of four Hwasong

Noon in Koreaþ @NoonInKorea · 48m48 minutes ago

Replying to @NoonInKorea

That would be before the start of Ulchi Freedom-Guardian military exercise which starts on 8/21. The statement is attributed to Kim Rak-Gyom

 

[Red Sky]

Mike Valerio‏Verified account @MikevWUSA · 2h2 hours ago

Happening Now - Rally Against Nuclear War at the White House.
This is the start of a 24-hour vigil #NorthKoreaNukes @WUSA9

Why don't they go to NK and rally? That is where the problem is.

 

[The Mountain]

I'll post this in the China/India thread too, but Kalika reminded me that China has implied that they plan to do something about the Dokhlam situation on the day of (or very close to) the Aug 21 eclipse, which seems to line up with this missile threat from the Norks. Made me wonder (idle speculation, not intended to be woo) if the two are collaborating on their actions.

 

[Racing22]

Media in my area is interpreting it that they WILL FIRE THE FOUR MISSILES some time next week---

Any chance that when our satellites see them getting these 4 missiles ready for launch, we just might send in some well placed Tomahawk cruise missiles?

 

[homepark]

Any chance that when our satellites see them getting these 4 missiles ready for launch, we just might send in some well placed Tomahawk cruise missiles?

Makes sense to me.

 

[Mongo]

Which ambassador, I wonder. There is no intel failure. DoD has known of the NORKS capabilities for quite some time. The will at the top is what has been lacking.

Ayup!

 

[northern watch]

Strategic Sentinel‏Verified account @StratSentinel · 28m28 minutes ago

Strategic Sentinel Retweeted Yonhap News Agency

#ROK National Security Council holds an emergency meeting over #DPRK threats

 

[northern watch]

Mil Radar‏ @MIL_Radar · 3h3 hours ago

9 AUG: JASDF jets scrambled to intercept 1x Chinese Y-8

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

!

The Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab · 33m33 minutes ago

Former #US ambassador to the #UN says #NorthKorea catching #US off guard is "a massive intelligence failure."

WHAT?!

It's Obama who was asleep at the wheel. Trump has been on this since day 1. I would also like to know which UN ambassador this was.

HD

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

Comment I made on another thread that I will add to this one on MAIN:

I'm guessing that Trump's statement yesterday was in response to intel he was given of NK planning the missile attack aimed at Guam. Once it was clear to NK Trump had the intel (which they deduced from his threat yesterday), NK verbally released the threat and then released their formal statement. So it went in this order: NK plans to attack Guam, Trump finds out and ramps up his warning to them, they realize Trump knows and state their intent for the world to hear, then release the statement.

Trump will not attack first and didn't threaten to attack first. Trump WILL respond if Guam is attacked. And he made that very clear to Kim last night.

imho
HD

 

[northern watch]

Nathan J Hunt‏ @ISNJH · 28m28 minutes ago

ROK to hold emergency security meeting over DPRK missile threat today at 2PM Local time

 

[northern watch]

Nathan J Hunt‏ @ISNJH · 2h2 hours ago

DPRK statement only makes statement of overflight of Japan but not ROK which could-indicate launch would likely come from East coast region

 

[northern watch]

Nathan J Huntþ @ISNJH · 2h2 hours ago

Its also unlikely that Japan will tolerate an overflight of 4 ballistic missiles over their country or U.S would let missiles land near Guam

 

[Countrymouse]

The Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab · 33m33 minutes ago

Former #US ambassador to the #UN says #NorthKorea catching #US off guard is "a massive intelligence failure."

No, it's a Massive CLINTON--OBAMA failure.............(with a whiff of Jimmy Carter thrown in)

 

[Tortie]

It says NK is "seriously examining a plan to..." and not that they are going to do it, just thinking about doing it. There is a difference

 

[Housecarl]

Mil Radar‏ @MIL_Radar · 3h3 hours ago

9 AUG: JASDF jets scrambled to intercept 1x Chinese Y-8

FYI, the Y-8 is a four engine turboprop medium transport based on the Antonov An-12 that is also used for ELINT, EW/ECM, airborne command post/AWACS, AEW and maritime patrol/ASW.

 

[Countrymouse]

Martin Armstrong is saying this weekend is a strong possibility for conflict.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/north-korea-beware-august-2017/

 

[Countrymouse]

It says NK is "seriously examining a plan to..." and not that they are going to do it, just thinking about doing it. There is a difference

except they gave a DATE---middle of August---which is next week....

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

WHAT?!

It's Obama who was asleep at the wheel. Trump has been on this since day 1. I would also like to know which UN ambassador this was.

HD

sheesh. Once again, a quote taken out of context. Ignore the inflammatory headline by CBS and read the whole conversation. I should've known better.

I do not see this as him blaming Trump for the last 6 months. This has been an intelligence failure FOR YEARS. And I think that's what he's implying. Of course, that's not what the headline is implying. Fake news at its finest.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/richard...u-s-off-guard-a-massive-intelligence-failure/
(fair use applies)


Richardson: North Korea catching U.S. off guard "a massive intelligence failure"
CBS News
August 9, 2017, 7:11 PM

The war of words between North Korea and the U.S. is escalating. Last week, the United Nations Security Council approved new sanctions against the country, which responded with a vow of "thousand-fold revenge" against the U.S.

On Tuesday, an intelligence report that came to light concluded that North Korea has the ability to build a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on top of a ballistic missile. President Trump then warned North Korea, vowing "fire and fury like the world has never seen" if threats against the U.S. continue.

CBS News' Anthony Mason spoke with Bill Richardson, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and an expert on North Korea, about the increasing tensions -- and where we go from here.

What follows is a transcript of the interview, which aired August 9, 2017, on the "CBS Evening News."

ANTHONY MASON: Mr. Ambassador, where do we go after "fire and fury"? What's the best option for the U.S. now?

BILL RICHARDSON: The best option is diplomacy, the best option is continued sanctions, see if they work. Continue to pressure China, continue the military exercises, but find a way to talk to the North Koreans.

MASON: But Kim Jong Un hasn't shown a lot of interest in diplomacy to this point.

RICHARDSON: We don't know what he wants. He's an unpredictable character. We don't know what his intentions are. He wants to stay in power. But I think in the end, once he knows that he can hit the United States with a missile, he can start negotiating. That's the way his father was. But I think keeping the talk about preemptive military strikes and the president's very incendiary statement, which was not helpful, is not the way to go.

MASON: What do you make of North Korea's threat towards Guam?

RICHARDSON: This is part of their foreign policy. However, the intensity of the attack, the specificity bothers me. The fact that the foreign minister himself -- who's a reasonable guy, I've dealt with him, Foreign Minister Re -- was so intense that I'm just a little worried that that intensity is a little too strong. What you don't want to have is a miscalculation.

MASON: What's the risk here that we could start a war by accident?

RICHARDSON: The risk is strong. A fishing boat is shot by the North Koreans, airspace is invaded and the North Koreans react, the South Koreans react -- everybody's trying to out-macho each other.

MASON: Lastly, Mr. Ambassador, U.S. intelligence seemed to be surprised by the technical advances in North Korea. Does that worry you?

RICHARDSON: That worries me because we should've been on this long ago. We should consider finding ways to put more intelligence, over-flights, more spies, because we were caught off guard. North Korea was way more advanced than our intelligence people told us. That's a massive intelligence failure that should never happen again.

MASON: Ambassador Bill Richardson, thank you so much for being with us.

RICHARDSON: Thank you.