ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

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China threatens consequences over US warship's actions​


ABC News​



BANGKOK -- China threatened “serious consequences” Friday after the United States Navy sailed a destroyer around the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea for the second day in a row, in a move Beijing claimed was a violation of its sovereignty and security.
The warning comes amid growing tensions between China and the United States in the region, as Washington pushes back at Beijing's growingly assertive posture in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway it claims virtually in its entirety.
On Thursday, after the U.S. sailed the USS Milius guided-missile destroyer near the Paracel Islands, China said its navy and air force had forced the American vessel away, a claim the U.S. military denied.

The U.S. on Friday sailed the ship again in the vicinity of the islands, which are occupied by China but also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam, as part of what it called a “freedom of navigation operation" challenging requirements from all three nations requiring either advance notification or permission before a military vessel sails by.
“Unlawful and sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea pose a serious threat to the freedom of the seas, including the freedoms of navigation and overflight, free trade and unimpeded commerce, and freedom of economic opportunity for South China Sea littoral nations,” U.S. 7th Fleet spokesperson Lt. j.g. Luka Bakic said in an emailed statement.
“The United States challenges excessive maritime claims around the world regardless of the identity of the claimant,” Bakic said.
China's Ministry of National Defense responded by accusing the U.S. of “undermining the peace and stability of the South China Sea” with its actions.

“The act of the U.S. military seriously violated China’s sovereignty and security, severely breached international laws, and is more ironclad evidence of the U.S. pursuing navigation hegemony and militarizing the South China Sea,” ministry spokesperson Tan Kefei said. “We solemnly request that the US. immediately stop such actions of provocation, otherwise it will bear the serious consequences of unexpected incidents caused by this.”
He said China would take “all necessary measures” to ensure its security but did not elaborate.
Like its statement on the Thursday incident, China again said it drove the American ship away from the islands, which are in the South China Sea a few hundred kilometers (miles) off the coast of Vietnam and the Chinese province of Hainan.
Both sides said their actions were justified under international law.

Bakic told The Associated Press that the ship “was not driven away” and “continued on to conduct routine maritime security operations in international waters” after concluding its mission near the Paracel Islands.
“The operation reflects our commitment to uphold freedom of navigation and lawful uses of the sea for all nations,” he said. "The United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as Milius did today.”
The U.S. has no South China Sea claims itself, but has deployed Naval and Air Force assets for decades to patrol the strategic waterway, through which around $5 trillion in global trade transits each year and which holds highly valuable fish stocks and undersea mineral resources.

A United Nations-backed arbitration tribunal ruled in 2016 that the historical claim from China on the waters had no legal basis under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas, and Washington maintains that freedom of navigation and overflight of the waterway are in the American national interest.
U.S. forces currently operate daily in the South China Sea, and have been present for more than a century. China regularly responds angrily, accusing the U.S. of meddling in Asian affairs and impinging upon its sovereignty.
China's claims have frequently brought it into conflict with other nations in the region as well. Filipino diplomats unleashed a slew of protests Friday over China's recent targeting of a Philippine coast guard ship with a powerful military laser and other aggressive behavior.
___
Find more AP Asia-Pacific coverage at Asia Pacific
 

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BNO News Live
@BNODesk

North Korea fires ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan

5:52 PM · Mar 26, 2023
·
138
Vi
 

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I guess we're no longer telling them w/ every launch that we'll shoot em down.
Probably for the best.
 

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North Korea fires off two missiles as flurry of launches continues
Jesse Johnson
4–5 minutes

North Korea on Monday continued its recent barrage of missile launches, firing off at least two apparent short-range ballistic missiles — the nuclear-armed country’s 10th launch event this year — as a U.S. aircraft carrier was set to conduct joint drills with South Korea.

The two missiles fired Monday flew for about 350 kilometers at a maximum altitude of 50 km, Japan’s Defense Ministry said. Both missiles landed far outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone, which extends 200 nautical miles (370 km) from its coast.

South Korea’s military also confirmed the launches, calling the weapons short-range ballistic missiles. The country’s Defense Ministry announced later Monday that the nuclear-powered USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group would conduct joint exercises with South Korean navy vessels in waters off the country’s southern coast, the Yonhap news agency reported. The Nimitz was scheduled to make a port call in the city of Busan on Tuesday.

On Monday, the Japanese government condemned the North’s “repeated launches of ballistic missiles,” which it said “threaten the peace and security of Japan, the region and the international community.”

The flurry of launches has come amid the largest joint military exercises between South Korea and the U.S. in five years. Those drills wrapped up Thursday, but a joint amphibious landing exercise between the two allies that began over the weekend was continuing. The U.S. and South Korea will hold their “largest-ever” live-fire drills in June, Seoul said last week.

Pyongyang views joint drills as a rehearsal for invasion, but Seoul and Washington say they are defensive in nature.

North Korea said last Thursday that it had tested a new nuclear-capable underwater attack drone that can generate a “super-scale radioactive tsunami.” The system is designed to make sneak attacks in enemy waters and destroy naval strike groups and major operational ports, state-run media said. In the same report, it also said the country had fired cruise missiles tipped with a simulated nuclear warhead as part of training for “tactical nuclear attack missions” a day earlier.

Last Monday, it also said it had conducted a drill involving a missile with a mock atomic warhead capable of striking Japan’s west coast. That drill saw the North detonate the mock warhead at a height of about 800 meters above its target. This was believed to be the first example of the country practicing for a so-called air burst nuclear attack, which would maximize the destructive power of the weapon.

Earlier this month, the North fired off one of its powerful long-range missiles in a show of force just hours before Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol were due to meet in Tokyo for their first-ever formal summit.

Tensions over North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs soared in 2022 as it fired off a record number of weapons in the face of calls by the U.S. and its allies to return to denuclearization talks.

This year, Pyongyang has already fired off a total of at least 15 ballistic missiles and six nuclear-capable cruise missiles in the 10 launch events, highlighting leader Kim Jong Un’s determination to follow through on a New Year’s pledge of an exponential increase in the number of nuclear bombs his country possesses

That vow — as well as a decision by Washington,Tokyo and Seoul to double down on building up their capabilities to deter and respond to a North Korean attack — has left little room for any possible return to the talks.
 

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Saudi Arabia takes step to join China-led security bloc, as ties with Beijing strengthen​

PUBLISHED WED, MAR 29 20237:25 AM EDT
Ruxandra Iordache
CNBC

KEY POINTS
  • Saudi Arabia’s cabinet on Tuesday approved a memorandum awarding Riyadh the status of dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
  • The SCO is a political, security and trade alliance that lists China, Russia, India, Pakistan and four other central Asian nations as members.
The symbol of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the flags of its member states and observer states.

The symbol of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the flags of its member states and observer states.
Peng Song | Moment | Getty Images

Saudi Arabia’s cabinet approved a decision to join a China-led security bloc, strengthening Riyadh’s eastern ties in a further step away from U.S. interests.

The state-owned Saudi Press Agency said that, in a session presided by King Salman bin Abdulaziz, the Saudi cabinet on Tuesday approved a memorandum awarding Riyadh the status of dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — a political, security and trade alliance that lists China, Russia, India, Pakistan and four other central Asian nations as full members.

The organization further tallies four observer states — including Iran — and nine dialogue partners, counting in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. It is headquartered in Beijing and served by China’s Zhang Ming as secretary-general.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to join the SCO, while falling short of full membership, takes Riyadh’s interests further east, at a time when Beijing is testing out its sway in the Middle East in a potential hit to U.S. influence. In early March, China brokered a deal for long-time Mideast rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies in each other’s countries.

Deeper in Europe, Beijing just as ambitiously, if so far less successfully, submitted a 12-point plan to achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine.

The White House did not immediately respond to a CNBC request to comment on Saudi Arabia’s new dialogue partner status in the SCO.

Saudi interests have long been intertwined with those of leading SCO members China and Russia. Beijing is Riyadh’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade worth $87.3 billion in 2021, according to Reuters.

China is a major consumer of hydrocarbon-reliant Saudi Arabia’s oil exports, with the two countries making significant inroads in each other’s petrochemical sectors — including the recent announcement by Saudi state-controlled oil giant Aramco of a joint venture that will build a refinery and petrochemical complex in Panjin in northeast China, alongside partners Norinco and the Panjin Xincheng Industrial Group.

Separately, Riyadh is a close ally of Russia in the crude oil production policies of the OPEC+ coalition.

 

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en.yna.co.kr


S. Korea, Turkey hold high-level military talks | Yonhap News Agency​


채윤환



SEOUL, March 30 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and Turkey held annual high-level military talks in Ankara earlier this week to discuss bilateral defense cooperation, Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Thursday.
JCS Vice Chairman Lt. Gen. Park Woong and Gen. Selcuk Bayraktaroglu, the deputy chief of the Turkish General Staff, represented each side at the 14th edition of the talks on Wednesday.
The two sides discussed ways to reinforce military cooperation, such as signing a military information sharing pact, bolstering arms industry cooperation and expanding their troops' participation in multinational drills.
They noted their relationship has been deepening based on mutual trust anchored in their "strategic partnership" forged in 2012. They also agreed to hold the 15th edition of the talks in Seoul next year.
During his trip, Park met with Turkey's top military officer, Gen. Yasar Guler, and offered words of solace over a devastating earthquake that hit the country last month.
Guler thanked Park for Seoul's assistance with the recovery efforts, noting that it demonstrated the "deep trust" between the two countries, according to the JCS.
South Korea sent more than 100 rescue and relief workers to Turkey following the quake.
 

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All Talk, No Action On China
by Tyler Durden
5–6 minutes

Authored by Derek Scissors via RealClear Wire,

It might be easy to embrace recent warnings against a bellicose bipartisan consensus in Washington regarding China. But the real peril is that the true China consensus — which includes Democrats and Republicans, the administration and Congress — is to do nothing but talk, especially if action comes at a price.

Last month gave us a perfect example. February was full of anti-China speeches: Republican-run congressional hearings, Democratic-run hearings, and Biden administration revelations. In the end though, nothing of substance happened, nor is it likely to happen.

There is no standing up to the People’s Republic of China without costs. It has the world’s second largest economy as well as its second most powerful military. It is led by a dictator-for-life who intentionally hearkens back to a man who caused mass starvation. Winning even a peaceful contest would require sacrifices. Deterring Xi Jinping by preparing for conflict requires more. As sacrifice is not appealing to most American politicians, they instead spout rhetoric while hoping for a contest of convenience.

The administration’s actions include the Department of Commerce calling for tens of billions of dollars to vastly boost domestic semiconductor production, prioritizing it as a vital national interest. Given the PRC’s intent to globally dominate low-end chips, Commerce appears correct. But challenging as this goal is, Commerce is diluting its plan by also asking for better day care as part of the package. This, of course, is a counter-incentive for companies willing to build in the U.S. It creates an opposite effect to what was originally intended.

The administration has treated supply chains similarly, stirring in political priorities such as promoting green energy output without specific plans to secure green energy supply chains. While it is no surprise that political actors would use China as cover for executing domestic policies, it means far less gets done. Export controls on semiconductors were announced to great fanfare last October, with promises of more to come. Yet five months later, we don’t even have the final regulations.

Concerning licensing permissions, Commerce has gone from terrible to mediocre under the Biden administration. Last year, it accepted 70% of applications to export controlled items to the PRC. Not exactly tight restrictions, but still a substantial improvement over the Trump Commerce Department’s performance, during a supposed “trade war,” where the number may have been over 90%.

Part of the blame is with Congress. Being placed on Commerce’s “Entity List,” which imposes license requirements on foreign individuals, entities, or governments, requires just a license application. Yet many members of Congress have pretended for years that this is a blacklist preventing designated foreign firms from receiving American technology. In fact, tens of billions of dollars’-worth in licenses have been granted to these firms, most of whom were also eligible for American investment. The Entity List has always been fraudulent, and Congress willingly plays along.

Will the new House Select Committee on China mean more effective legislation? Doubtful. Members within the Select Committee are genuinely concerned with the economic and military risks China poses, and they have allies elsewhere in Congress. But the Select Committee has no official jurisdiction — it can only talk, not act. This is an ideal outcome for those who want to appear politically strong while having no obligation at all to back up their words.

The Financial Services Committee, possibly the most important House committee, held a China hearing in early February. According to its Republican chairman and Republican-called witnesses, the top China threat is the U.S. responding in any serious way to China. Their conclusion: The U.S. should face up to the PRC’s military buildup, its domestic and international repression, and its economic predation by continuing to invest freely in the PRC.

With this “pressure” from some Republicans, the Biden administration does not feel compelled to truly compete. An executive order to address the more than $1 trillion the U.S. has invested in the PRC is many months overdue. Even if issued, it may prove an almost entirely empty action.

Other consequences to inaction are looming. China continues to steal intellectual property (IP), subsidize production that uses the IP, and drive advanced American companies out of business. It will also spread repression and more intensely target Taiwan. Politicians who take this seriously must propose policies that involve some pain, because that is what’s required for the U.S. to win. Politicians who don’t take the PRC seriously are easy to spot. They’ll be pushing some domestic agenda unrelated to China, tilting at windmills, and, above all, talking.

Derek Scissors is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He is also the chief economist of the China Beige Book. The views expressed are the author's own.
 

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North Korea executes people for South Korean videos, drugs - report​


2 minute read
March 30, 2023
2:30 AM CDT
Last Updated 2 hours ago




SEOUL, March 30 (Reuters) - North Korea executes people for drugs, sharing South Korean media, and religious activities as it stifles its citizens' human rights and freedom, its rival, South Korea, said in a report on Thursday.
South Korea's Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, based the 450-page report on testimony collected from 2017 to 2022 from more than 500 North Koreans who fled from their homeland.
"North Korean citizens' right to life appears to be greatly threatened," the ministry said in the report.

"Executions are widely carried out for acts that do not justify the death penalty, including drug crimes, distribution of South Korean videos, and religious and superstitious activities."
Reuters could not independently verify the South Korean government's findings but they were in line with U.N. investigations and reports from non-governmental organisations.
North Korea has rejected criticism of its rights conditions as part of a plot to overthrow its rulers.

The report gave details of rampant state-led rights abuses in communities, prison camps and elsewhere, including public executions, torture and arbitrary arrests.
Deaths and torture regularly occur in detention facilities and some people were summarily executed after being caught trying to cross the border, the ministry said.

The report came as South Korea seeks to highlight its isolated neighbour's failure to improve living conditions while racing to boost its nuclear and missile arsenals.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said the report should better inform the international community of the North's "gruesome" abuses, saying North Korea deserved "not a single penny" of economic aid while it pursues its nuclear ambitions.

The approach by the conservative Yoon is a distinct departure from that of his liberal predecessor, Moon Jae-in, who faced criticism for his less outspoken position on the North's rights as he sought to improve ties and build rapport with its leader, Kim Jong Un.
The Unification Ministry is required by law to make an annual assessment of the North's rights situation.
Nearly 34,000 North Koreans have settled in South Korea but the number of defectors has fallen sharply because of tighter border security.
North Korean arrivals hit an all-time low of just 63 in 2021, amid COVID-19 shutdowns, before edging up to 67 in 2022, ministry data showed.
 

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'Sinking Our Future': Biden's Budget Cuts Funds to U.S. Navy As China Ramps Up Shipbuilding​

Biden wants to prematurely retire dozen ships, put U.S. on track to be outgunned on seas by China​

2022-01-20T055136Z_2_LYNXMPEI0J080_RTROPTP_4_TAIWAN-USA-DEFENCE_736x514.jpg

The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold, forward-deployed to the U.S. 7th Fleet in the Indo-Pacific region, transits the Philippine Sea, June 14, 2018. Sarah Myers/U.S. Navy/Handout via REUTERS

Adam Kredo
Free Beacon
March 29, 2023

The Biden administration wants to enact sharp budget cuts to the U.S. Navy that would force it to prematurely retire almost a dozen ships and take offline critical missile systems that serve as a primary deterrent to Chinese aggression.

President Joe Biden’s 2024 budget proposal would deal a massive blow to the already strained American Navy—the White House wants to prematurely retire eight ships and two combat vessels. By taking these ships out of action, the Navy would lose more than 600 vertical launch missile systems—a missile capability that serves as the primary deterrent to Chinese military attacks in the Pacific, according to congressional research provided to the Washington Free Beacon.

"The Biden Administration’s defense budget would hollow out our fleet and scrap Navy radars and missile systems we desperately need to deter China," Sen. Roger Wicker (R., Miss.), the Senate Armed Services Committee’s ranking member, told the Free Beacon. "Prematurely retiring our ships sends exactly the wrong signal to China as they continue to build their own Navy at a historic pace."

Biden’s budget would decrease the total number of active Navy ships, retiring at least 11 ships while only requesting the construction of nine new vessels. The Navy currently has 294 battle force ships, far short of the 355 it is required to have by law. Biden’s budget would further reduce this number, according to information about the White House’s 2023 budget proposal codified by Wicker’s office.

China, meanwhile, expects to field more than 400 ships by 2025 amid a rapid growth plan that will modernize its fleet with aircraft carriers, guided missile destroyers, and surface combat vessels, according to American defense officials. China’s current fleet stands at around 340 ships.

The White House’s budget proposal disregards repeated requests from the Marine Corps for a minimum of 31 amphibious warships—which would serve a critical role in any military conflict with China
. Three of these ships are being retired, and the Biden administration is expected to order a "strategic pause" in the purchase of modernized warships, leaving the force below its statutory requirement of 31 ships.

Rebeccah Heinrichs, a national security analyst with the Hudson Institute think tank, said the Biden administration "seems to be under the illusion that the PRC will be deterred by strongly worded government reports and joint pressers with allies."

"Navy and Marine leaders have said what they need to do that, and this White House has decided they know better," she said. "There is no way around the fact that building the Navy this country needs to deter China, and to win if war comes, will cost Americans money."

Internal disagreement on this issue within the Biden administration recently spilled into public view, when the Pentagon rejected a Navy proposal to build more ships that are capable of ferrying American troops and equipment into the Pacific region as a part of a strategic shift away from the Middle East.

Biden’s budget flattens the Navy’s shipbuilding request, providing just 2.5 percent growth over last year’s budget, a figure that does not keep up with inflation. The total new ship requests will also shrink from 12 to 9 and includes a halt in future years on construction of rescue and salvage ships, fast transport ships, and amphibious warfare ships, according to Wicker’s office.

By retiring 11 ships, the Navy would lose a sizable portion of its vertical launching system cells, which contain the missiles primarily used to deter Chinese attacks in the Pacific region, Wicker’s office says.

Biden’s budget also aims to reduce spending on naval reactors—which power nuclear-armed submarines—by 5.6 percent, or $1.96 billion, relative to last year’s budget, according to the budget information provided by Wicker.

These spending reductions will further strain America’s submarine industrial base, which is already facing pressure after the United States announced it will accelerate Australia’s provision of several nuclear-powered submarines.

"The president’s defense budget is, in practice, sinking our future fleet," Wicker warned in recent remarks.

 

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'Sinking Our Future': Biden's Budget Cuts Funds to U.S. Navy As China Ramps Up Shipbuilding​

Biden wants to prematurely retire dozen ships, put U.S. on track to be outgunned on seas by China​

2022-01-20T055136Z_2_LYNXMPEI0J080_RTROPTP_4_TAIWAN-USA-DEFENCE_736x514.jpg

The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold, forward-deployed to the U.S. 7th Fleet in the Indo-Pacific region, transits the Philippine Sea, June 14, 2018. Sarah Myers/U.S. Navy/Handout via REUTERS

Adam Kredo
Free Beacon
March 29, 2023

The Biden administration wants to enact sharp budget cuts to the U.S. Navy that would force it to prematurely retire almost a dozen ships and take offline critical missile systems that serve as a primary deterrent to Chinese aggression.

President Joe Biden’s 2024 budget proposal would deal a massive blow to the already strained American Navy—the White House wants to prematurely retire eight ships and two combat vessels. By taking these ships out of action, the Navy would lose more than 600 vertical launch missile systems—a missile capability that serves as the primary deterrent to Chinese military attacks in the Pacific, according to congressional research provided to the Washington Free Beacon.

"The Biden Administration’s defense budget would hollow out our fleet and scrap Navy radars and missile systems we desperately need to deter China," Sen. Roger Wicker (R., Miss.), the Senate Armed Services Committee’s ranking member, told the Free Beacon. "Prematurely retiring our ships sends exactly the wrong signal to China as they continue to build their own Navy at a historic pace."

Biden’s budget would decrease the total number of active Navy ships, retiring at least 11 ships while only requesting the construction of nine new vessels. The Navy currently has 294 battle force ships, far short of the 355 it is required to have by law. Biden’s budget would further reduce this number, according to information about the White House’s 2023 budget proposal codified by Wicker’s office.

China, meanwhile, expects to field more than 400 ships by 2025 amid a rapid growth plan that will modernize its fleet with aircraft carriers, guided missile destroyers, and surface combat vessels, according to American defense officials. China’s current fleet stands at around 340 ships.

The White House’s budget proposal disregards repeated requests from the Marine Corps for a minimum of 31 amphibious warships—which would serve a critical role in any military conflict with China
. Three of these ships are being retired, and the Biden administration is expected to order a "strategic pause" in the purchase of modernized warships, leaving the force below its statutory requirement of 31 ships.

Rebeccah Heinrichs, a national security analyst with the Hudson Institute think tank, said the Biden administration "seems to be under the illusion that the PRC will be deterred by strongly worded government reports and joint pressers with allies."

"Navy and Marine leaders have said what they need to do that, and this White House has decided they know better," she said. "There is no way around the fact that building the Navy this country needs to deter China, and to win if war comes, will cost Americans money."

Internal disagreement on this issue within the Biden administration recently spilled into public view, when the Pentagon rejected a Navy proposal to build more ships that are capable of ferrying American troops and equipment into the Pacific region as a part of a strategic shift away from the Middle East.

Biden’s budget flattens the Navy’s shipbuilding request, providing just 2.5 percent growth over last year’s budget, a figure that does not keep up with inflation. The total new ship requests will also shrink from 12 to 9 and includes a halt in future years on construction of rescue and salvage ships, fast transport ships, and amphibious warfare ships, according to Wicker’s office.

By retiring 11 ships, the Navy would lose a sizable portion of its vertical launching system cells, which contain the missiles primarily used to deter Chinese attacks in the Pacific region, Wicker’s office says.

Biden’s budget also aims to reduce spending on naval reactors—which power nuclear-armed submarines—by 5.6 percent, or $1.96 billion, relative to last year’s budget, according to the budget information provided by Wicker.

These spending reductions will further strain America’s submarine industrial base, which is already facing pressure after the United States announced it will accelerate Australia’s provision of several nuclear-powered submarines.

"The president’s defense budget is, in practice, sinking our future fleet," Wicker warned in recent remarks.

Is Joe Biden a Manchurian Candidate?
 

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asiatimes.com

China’s diplomatic wins rise from America’s losses​


Christopher McCallion​




China’s diplomatic maneuvers over the past weeks have produced all sorts of alarm among members of the Washington foreign policy establishment and media that America’s influence is being supplanted in favor of a new and hostile “world order.”
The failure to see current events in balance-of-power terms goes a long way toward explaining how this situation has come about in the first place.

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow to affirm the Sino-Russian “no limits partnership” the same week the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for war crimes against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Earlier in the month, China successfully brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to re-establish diplomatic ties between the Gulf rivals. In late February, Beijing released a 12-point peace plan for the war in Ukraine to which Kiev signaled both skepticism and openness.

Xi concluded his trip to Moscow by telling Russian President Vladimir Putin “Now there are changes that haven’t happened in 100 years. When we are together, we drive these changes.”
American commentators responded that China is “emerging[…] as the leader of a Eurasian bloc,” that “[a]lliances and rivalries that have governed diplomacy for generations have[…] been upended,” and that an “anti-US world order [is] taking shape.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin share a toast, March 21, 2023. Image: Screengrab / SCMP video / Youtube
The question seems to be limited to “whether this confrontation will heat up, pushing three nuclear powers to the brink of World War III, or merely marks the opening chords of Cold War 2.0. [emphasis mine]”
Few seem interested in asking whether both World War III and Cold War 2.0 can be avoided, or why it is that China has found such a receptive audience for its diplomatic overtures.

A notable exception is Fareed Zakaria’s admirable recent column, which states bluntly that, “America’s unipolar status has corrupted the country’s foreign policy elite. Our foreign policy is all too often an exercise in making demands and issuing threats and condemnations. There is very little effort made to understand the other side’s views or actually negotiate.”
Given the Biden administration’s framing of international politics as a struggle of “democracy vs autocracy” and America’s eschewal of meaningful diplomacy with non-allies, it is unsurprising that Washington would find itself shut out from relations between Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Riyadh.

Beijing recently stated in unusually strong terms that the US was seeking to “contain” China, an assessment which appears accurate in light of increasingly unambiguous American commitments to Taiwan and Western imposition of export restrictions on technology to China.
Washington’s attempts to isolate and hobble the Russian economy have made it inevitable that Moscow should look east for its energy exports, and increases the possibility of a renminbi-dominated trade zone eroding the global role of the dollar.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement that European leaders should turn Putin over to the ICC – a body whose authority the US does not even recognize – not only makes the US look hypocritical in claiming to protect the “rules-based international order,” but is tantamount to a declaration that regime change in Moscow is now official US policy.
This threatens to make the Ukrainian conflict more intractable and dangerous escalation more likely. By issuing an arrest warrant for Putin, the ICC has merely ensured that Moscow can no longer engage in normal diplomacy with the West, including an eventual settlement to the Ukraine war. This all but guarantees that if a broker emerges to negotiate an end to the war, they will not be from the West or reflect its preferences.

While continuing the Trump administration’s hawkish line towards Iran and failing to resuscitate the JCPOA nuclear deal, the Biden administration simultaneously promised to make Saudi Arabia, Tehran’s arch-nemesis, a “pariah.”
Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat (center), in Beijing on March 10, 2023, with counterparts Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban of Saudi Arabia and Ali Shamkhani of Iran. Image: China Daily
Despite decades of picking favorites in the region, the US has diminishing influence in either Riyadh or Jerusalem. US saber-rattling remains the primary motivation for Iran to develop nuclear weapons, an outcome the US claims it wants to avoid. And Saudi Arabia and Syria appear to be on the brink of a rapprochement, this time brokered by Moscow.
China’s mediation of a deal in the Middle East, and its growing involvement in the region, are hardly a bad thing for the US. As my colleague Ben Friedman has recently written, there is little to fear from China filling the “vacuum” left by our disengagement from the region.

Indeed, a cynical realpolitiker could only hope that Beijing would be foolish enough to follow in our footsteps.
The scorecard for American diplomacy over the past few decades is not pretty. The US, which has long sought to avoid the emergence of a hegemon on the Eurasian landmass, has united the other two great powers in an entente bound primarily by opposition to the US.

Despite a rough balance of power in the Middle East which should maximize the United States’ bilateral leverage vis-a-vis all parties, the US has somehow found a way to alienate both of the major players in the Gulf.
All this is to say: who’s isolating whom? As the foreign policy establishment wrings its hands over the formation of hostile alliances and being cut out of the diplomatic loop, it might be worth considering that if you treat everyone else as a “pariah,” you eventually become a pariah yourself.
Christopher McCallion is a Fellow at Defense Priorities. This article is republished with the kind permission of Defense Priorities

China’s diplomatic wins rise from America’s losses
 

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OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I wonder what percentage of world trade now avoids the US Dollar?

More will ditch America, and it’s dollar. Soon, America will be all but alone in the world. The more WOKE and insane our leadership, the fewer allies we will have. America will soon cease to exist. Enemies large and small will seek its end, and their desire will come to fruition- all because its people would not accept the responsibility for their actions. They had many, many good and wondrous promised, and squandered it all…

OA
 

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Japan Ministry of Defense/Self-Defense Forces
@ModJapan_en
15h

Japan government organization
On Mar 31, the “Hotline between Japanese and Chinese Defense Authorities” which had been coordinated towards operational status by spring this year, has now completed its equipment/line settings on Japanese and Chinese side, and has become operational.
 

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Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
3h

BREAKING: Satellite images show a high level of activity at North Korea's main nuclear site, a US think tank says
 

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Growing Activity at North Korea's Experimental Light Water Reactor - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea​


Peter Makowsky, Jack Liu

9–11 minutes






Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates a high level of activity around the complex. The 5 MWe Reactor continues to operate, and construction has started on an additional support building around the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). Furthermore, water discharges have been detected that could be associated with testing of the ELWR’s cooling system. This is not the first time water discharges have been observed coming from the ELWR over the past few years but may indicate the reactor is nearing completion.
Additionally, new construction has started around the Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP) area, likely intended to expand the uranium conversion capabilities. Together, these developments seem to reflect Kim Jong Un’s recent directive to increase the country’s fissile material production to expand its nuclear weapons arsenal.
The ELWR: New Construction
Satellite imagery from March 17 revealed the foundation of a new building measuring approximately 42 meters by 15 meters. The foundation appears to have approximately 20 rooms on the base floor. Given its location, this building will likely serve an administrative function, such as accommodating additional staff required to operate the reactor or providing research and engineering spaces.
Figure 1. Overview of reactor area. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
The building construction started in February in a space previously used as a construction material staging area and is the second new administration building that has been built near the engineering building—the first was completed in December 2022.
Figure 2. New building construction near the ELWR’s engineering building. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
The ELWR: Preparations for Operations
On imagery from March 3, water discharge is observed coming from a pipe that empties into the Kuryong River approximately 75 meters south of the ELWR’s pump house. This is not the first time water discharge has been detected around the ELWR, but does suggest some activities are taking place within the reactor itself.
Fig3a-Yongbyon-Upd-23-0401_23-0306-AIR-768x576.jpg

Figure 3a. Water discharge observed south of ELWR pump house on March 6, 2023. mage Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Imagery of trench work done in 2012 showed two substantial pipes running from the ELWR’s turbine building to the pump house. While only an onsite inspection can confirm the function of the actual cooling arrangements, the lines could be carrying the spent steam from the turbine to a river water cooled condenser in the pump house and condensed feedwater back to the ELWR steam generators. Alternatively, the condenser may be in the turbine building, and cooling river water is pumped in and out over those lines.
The discharge being observed now is not from the main discharge line, but from what has been termed the secondary discharge pathway. It could consist of river water-cooling discharge from other ELWR service/support systems. These support systems include normal radioactive decay heat removal (RHR) that must be performed when the reactor is shut down for refueling, maintenance or safety-related cooling for various emergency hot shutdown situations.
The emergency cooling systems are, by design, usually located entirely within the reactor building to prevent radioactivity release in the case of an accident. The RHR must be available for continuous operation when the reactor is on a scheduled hot shutdown to prevent damaging overheating from radioactive decay.[1] The amount of heat energy that must be carried away is considerably less than when the reactor is operating at full power, which may explain the small among of discharge seen from the secondary discharge pathway. RHR testing is part of readiness testing, as it needs to work reliably before the ELWR can be started.
Together, the new construction and this recent water discharge seem to suggest that the ELWR is nearing a transition to operational status.
5 MWe Reactor
The 5 MWe Reactor has been operating since July 2021. Based on the irradiation campaigns in 2003-2007 and 2013-2018, it is probably approaching the point of discharging spent fuel and refueling. However, there appears to be new construction work ongoing at the reactor’s Spent Fuel Storage Building, which may prevent a near-term fuel discharge.
Figure 4. New construction aggregate at Spent Fuel Storage Building. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Uranium Conversion Area
For the past year, construction and refurbishment activity has been ongoing within the complex south of the Uranium Enrichment Plant. The majority of work has been done at the UO2-UF4 Conversion Building.[2] The removal of a large section of its roof, observed in July 2022, suggested at first that the building was possibly being dismantled. However, by December, a new roof was added, confirming the structure was being renovated. Work on the western sections of the building continues, and whether those portions will be razed or also renovated is unknown.
On imagery from March 3, 2023, roofing was being applied to a newly constructed, single-story support building located next to the Metal Alloy Workshop, which in the past, was used to produce cladding material for the 5 MWe Reactor fuel. By March 17, the roofing appears to have been completed. The building’s future function is yet to be determined.
Fig5a-Yongbyon-Upd-23-0401_22-1018-AIR-768x576.jpg

Figure 5a. Construction and renovations to facilities in the uranium conversion area on imagery from October 18, 2022. Image Pleiades © CNES 2023, Distribution Airbus DS. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Three additional buildings are under construction in an area south of the UO2-UF4 buildings. These measure 42 by 15 meters, 55 by 12 meters, and 30 by 14 meters. Construction began between February 13 and March 3, when the foundations were being prepared. By March 17, their interior walls were being added. The size of the interior rooms suggests they will likely be offices for administrative or technical purposes.
Fig6a-Yongbyon-Upd-23-0401_23-0321-AIR-768x576.jpg

Figure 6a. New buildings under construction south of UO2-UF4 building. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Supply of Chemicals to UEP and Uranium Conversation Area
On March 3, three specialized railcars were present, albeit one of the cars, as in past practice, had been separated from the unit and left on the spur.[3] A white tank car, which has been seen previously, was also present. On March 17, all but one of the specialized railcars had departed, and none were present in the city railyard, where they have occasionally appeared before departing the Yongbyon area. One car being left behind is unusual, and its continued presence on March 21 raises questions about its purpose.
A recent CSIS report suggests that these specialized railcars may be associated with a chemical plant located in Manpho.
Fig7a-Yongbyon-Upd-23-0401_23-0306-AIR-768x576.jpg

Figure 7a. Specialized railcars present in UEP area on imagery from March 6, 2023. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Pressurized Light Water Reactor Cooling Systems
Light water reactors, like the ELWR, require cooling to dissipate waste heat produced when converting superheated steam generated by the nuclear reactor into electricity and also heat from support systems. This schematic of the ELWR power generation process, previously published on 38 North, shows where the reactor’s primary coolant system heats feedwater in superheated/dry steam generators that send the steam to turbines that spin generators to produce electricity. The spent steam must, in turn, be converted back into feedwater by a condenser cooled with water pumped (in this case) from the Kuryong River through it and discharged back into the river.
When the ELWR becomes operational, thermodynamics of power generation with steam limits electrical power to be one-third of the applied heat power. Therefore, if the ELWR produces 150 MWth, the turbine-generators can generate 50 MWe, and the cooling river water must carry away the remaining 100 MWth. That will require a substantial river water flow.
YB_Addendum-pic-1-1024x670.jpg


  1. [1]
    It works by extracting heat from the reactor core by running secondary loop feedwater contained in the steam generator through a small heat exchanger cooled by a much lower flow of river water.
  2. [2]
    Uranium dioxide (UO2) and uranium tetrafluoride (UF4).
  3. [3]
    Chemicals are normally brought in via three similarly configured railcars, each with four to five cylindrical canisters mounted on them. While their content remains unknown, they bring or remove from the site chemical agents used at the uranium conversion facility and/or at the UEP. These same three railcars tend to appear three to four times annually, a pattern that can be documented back to 2003.



Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
3h

BREAKING: Satellite images show a high level of activity at North Korea's main nuclear site, a US think tank says
 

jward

passin' thru

N. Korea says its nuclear capabilities 'not empty talk' | Yonhap News Agency​


이치동

~2 minutes



SEOUL, April 2 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is not making "empty talk" about its nuclear capabilities, Pyongyang's state media said Sunday, adding that the United States and South Korea are engaging in "wrong behavior of bringing themselves to a grave danger."

In a commentary, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) strongly criticized the allies' ongoing joint military drills and their scheme to hold a massive live-fire exercise in June.
"The warmongers' desperate acts are going to the extremes," it said in the English-language commentary. It cited the 11-day Freedom Shield exercise held in March.

"Their war hysteria is running up to the climax along with the start of Ssangyong, a joint landing drill," it added.
The Ssangyong (double dragon) training began March 20, the allies' first major combined amphibious landing exercise in five years. It is set to end Monday.
The KCNA also took issue with the two sides' plan to stage their largest-ever "combined joint firepower annihilation drill" in June to mark the 70th anniversary of their alliance.

"This reminds the people and army of the DPRK of June 1950 when they had to be subject to war calamity, and further arousing their high vigilance," the KCNA said. The DPRK is the acronym for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
It stressed, "The U.S. and its followers should never forget the fact that their rival state has possessed the nuclear attack capability in practice as well as the characteristics of the people and army of the DPRK which do not make empty talk."
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Guam, where America’s next war may begin​

The tourist island and vital military outpost is surprisingly vulnerable​

This August 17, 2016 US Air Force handout photo shows L-R a B-52 Stratofortress, a B-2 Spirit and a B-1 Lancer flying over Guam after launching from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, for an integrated bomber operation. - This mission marks the first time in history that all three of Air Force Global Strike Command's strategic bomber aircraft are simultaneously conducting integrated operations in the U.S. Pacific Command area of operations. (Photo by Joshua SMOOT / US AIR FORCE / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT AFP PHOTO / US AIR FORCE / SA JOSHUA SMOOT - NO MARKETING - NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS

Apr 2nd 2023 | ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE
The Economist

Like many of America’s bases in the Pacific, Guam mixes hedonism with war jitters. Japanese and South Korean visitors revel on the sand of Tumon Bay, a coral-reef lagoon. Above, f-15 fighters and b-1 bombers bank to land at Andersen Air Force Base nearby. Below, nuclear attack submarines slip in and out of Apra Harbour. The marines are building a base up the road. Around lie reminders of the Pacific war between America and Japan. The last Japanese soldier surrendered in 1972.

“Where America’s day begins”, as Guam likes to sell itself (incorrectly), is also where a future American war with China may begin. This westernmost speck of America, just 30 miles (48km) long and with a population of about 170,000, helps it project power across the vast Pacific. As tension over Taiwan worsens, war games often predict early and sustained Chinese missile strikes on Guam, and perhaps the use of nuclear weapons against it.

Startlingly, for such a vital military complex, Guam is only thinly defended. Its thaad missile-defence battery is not always switched on. It is in any case intended to parry only a limited attack from North Korea, not an onslaught from China.

Andersen has no Patriot ground-to-air missiles, though they are deployed at American bases in South Korea and Japan. Warships with Aegis air-defence systems offer extra protection, but they may not always be nearby. To judge from the ubiquitous metal traps on fences around Guam’s bases, commanders seem more worried about the brown tree snake, an invasive species, than a surprise Chinese strike.

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China makes no secret that Guam is in its cross-hairs. The df-26 missile, with a range of 4,000km, is commonly called the “Guam killer”. In 2020 a Chinese propaganda video depicted an h-6k bomber attacking an undisclosed air base: the satellite image was unmistakably of Andersen. To survive within China’s “weapons engagement zone”, the American air force is developing “agile combat employment”. This involves scattering aircraft to deny China an easy shot, and networking them with distant “sensors” and “shooters” to give battle. It practised such tactics at the Cope North exercise with Japan and Australia on Guam and nearby islands in February. At the end of each day, though, the jets were all parked together in neat rows in the open. The base has no hardened shelters for aircraft, and its fuel is stored in closely packed tanks above ground.

The vulnerability of Guam is belatedly getting attention in Washington, not least because successive heads of Indo-Pacific Command (indopacom) in Hawaii, in charge of any future war with China, keep pleading for better protection. At last, a plan is emerging. The Pentagon has requested $1.5bn to start beefing up the island’s air defences in the 2024 fiscal year (which starts in October 2023)
, much of it for the Missile Defence Agency (mda), which focuses mainly on missile threats against the American homeland, and the rest to the army. indopacom is pushing for $147m more.

“We are playing catch-up,” admits Vice-Admiral Jon Hill, director of the mda. He says the first step will be to put the ship-based Aegis system on land. Unlike “Aegis ashore” systems in Poland and Romania, the version on Guam will have better radars, and many components will be “distributed”: movable on wheels to improve their chances of surviving attack. There will be several radars to give all-round coverage. Together with thaad, this will provide more robust protection against ballistic missiles.

Cruise missiles may prove a bigger menace because of their greater numbers, and ability to fly low and turn. These would be taken on mainly by a combination of army systems: Patriot; its new and more powerful radar, ltamds; and a shorter-range system called ifpc. The first elements should be in place by 2024. Future kit will be integrated as it becomes available. It may eventually include weapons to take out hypersonic missiles, which are hard to hit because they fly fast and manoeuvre, and “directed energy” systems (using lasers and microwaves)

All this raises questions. One is the timetable: several of the components are not yet in production, and much of the money is still going on research and development. Another is whether disparate systems from the mda, navy and army can be fully integrated so that commanders can fight off many kinds of missiles from many directions. A third is whether a polarised Congress will pass a budget on time. And last, many of Guam’s people may well ask: will ever more military hardware on Guam endanger us, or scare away the tourists?

 
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jward

passin' thru
breakingdefense.com


Why North Korea responds the way it does to US-ROK exercises​


Colin Clark​


Breaking Defense
@BreakingDefense
7m

“It is important to keep in mind that while the US and ROK certainly have the right to conduct drills as they see fit, what they have been doing is NOT business as usual,” Jenny Town, a Korean analyst at the Stimson Center in Washington, wrote in an email.

SYDNEY — As the US and South Korea conduct their largest joint military exercise since 2018, North Korea has ramped up its launches of medium and intercontinental range ballistic missiles. It’s a classic North Korean response to US-ROK military maneuverers, but one that is open to interpretation.

Exercise Ssang Yong, which kicked off this week and will go through April 3, was clearly on North Korea’s radar. The US Marines and South Korean troops practiced an amphibious landing for the first time since 2018 on Monday, supported by USS Makin Island bearing F-35Bs and Ospreys, and seven South Korean navy ships, all while the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group arrived earlier in the week and was operating somewhere near the South Korean coast.
For its part, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles that flew approximately 230 miles on Monday.
Those were the seventh series of missile launches this month, putting the total at 11 for this year. The week before North Korea executed a three-day exercise that the Hermit Kingdom said simulated nuclear attacks on South Korean targets. On top of that, the north also claimed to have tested a nuclear-capable underwater drone supposedly designed to set off a “radioactive tsunami.”

Given North Korea’s history, it’s not unusual that they would react with some military bombast. But, two analysts say, the relatively intense pace of weapons being tossed into the sea — again, over half the missile launches of the year just in the past month — is notable.
“North Korea has been adamantly protesting the ongoing, back-to-back, large-scale, live-fire military exercises that the US and South Korea have been conducting. Pyongyang has warned several times that if the US and ROK keep exercising in this manner and frequency that North Korea would also up their game, describing such potential actions as using the East Sea as ‘target practice,'” Jenny Town, a respected Korean analyst at the Stimson Center in Washington, wrote in an email. “It is important to keep in mind that while the US and ROK certainly have the right to conduct drills as they see fit, what they have been doing is NOT business as usual.”

Leonid Petrov, a Korean expert at the Australian National University in Canberra, said Kim Jong Il is ordering these tests to maintain the terrible sense of perpetual crisis in the peninsula and to keep his country on a war footing.
“They need the war, they need instability and they need a great leader,” he said. “So if it’s a war they need to demonstrate the image of the victorious leader and the self-proclaimed nuclear power which is definitely not going to lose, and may even prevail over the enemy,” Petrov said. “Yeah, the North Koreans keep demonstrating, developing, demonstrating, testing, showcasing and now even giving the weapons to Russia in exchange for food and electricity and other basic needs.”
The latest tests, Petrov assesses, may well constitute sales pitches for a Russia increasingly hungry for ammunition and replacement weapons because “Russians in Ukraine badly need sophisticated weapons. North Korea’s showcasing what they have.”

Towns, however, sees the choice of weapons as being more about “demonstrating the ability to strike both regional and long-range targets, all part of North Korea’s deterrence messaging,” she said.
“They are framing several of these launches as their own operational and deployment drills — equivalent to what the US and ROK and doing, although technically the North Koreans are prohibited from these activities under UN Security Council resolutions. It is clear they are working to demonstrate a credible ICBM capability, which will also help advance their satellite launch capabilities as well, and reinforce the notion that their forces are diverse, mobile and nuclear capable if needed.”

 
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