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Philippines names 4 new camps for US forces amid China fury​

The Philippine government has identified four new military camps, including some across the sea from Taiwan, where rotating batches of American forces will be allowed to be stationed indefinitely despite strong objections from China
By JIM GOMEZ Associated Press
April 3, 2023, 7:42 AM

wirestory_4db2a71161398e2769cceb2838fa2750_16x9_992.jpg

MANILA, Philippines -- The Philippine government on Monday identified four new military camps, including some across the sea from Taiwan, where rotating batches of American forces will be allowed to be stationed indefinitely despite strong objections from China.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s administration announced in February his approval of an expansion of the U.S. military presence to four additional Philippine military bases from the five existing sites under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the longtime treaty allies.

Marcos said the move would boost the Philippines' coastal defense. It dovetails with the Biden administration's efforts to strengthen an arc of military alliances in the Indo-Pacific to better counter China, including in any future confrontation over Taiwan.

The new sites identified by Marcos' office include a Philippine navy base in Santa Ana and an international airport in Lal-lo, both in northern Cagayan province. Those locations have infuriated Chinese officials because they would provide U.S. forces with a staging ground close to southern China and Taiwan, the self-governed island Beijing claims as its own.

The two other military areas are in northern Isabela province and a navy camp on Balabac island in the western province of Palawan.

Palawan faces the South China Sea, a key passage for global trade that Beijing claims virtually in its entirety and has taken increasingly aggressive actions that have threatened smaller claimant states, including the Philippines.

China and the Philippines, along with Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan, have been locked in increasingly tense territorial disputes over the busy and resource-rich South China Sea. Washington lays no claims to the strategic waters but has deployed warships and fighter and surveillance aircraft for patrols that it says promote freedom of navigation and the rule of law, angering Beijing.

“That's a trade route, that's where more or less $3 trillion worth of trade passes. Our responsibility in collectively securing that is huge,” said Carlito Galvez, who heads the Philippine Defense Department.

The four new military sites for American forces are “suitable and mutually beneficial” and will “boost the disaster response of the country” as a springboard for humanitarian and relief work during emergencies, Marcos's office said.

In a statement, the U.S. Department of Defense said the new locations “will strengthen the interoperability of the U.S. and Philippine Armed Forces and allow us to respond more seamlessly together to address a range of shared challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.”

In a meeting last month with Philippine officials in Manila, however, a Chinese Foreign Ministry delegation expressed its strong opposition to an expanded U.S. military presence in the Philippines and warned of repercussions for regional peace and stability, a Philippine official involved in the talks said at the time.

Philippine diplomats replied that the decision to allow an expanded American military presence was in the Philippines' national interest and would boost its ability to respond to natural disasters, the official said, suggesting the move was not aimed at China.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of a lack of authority to publicly discuss the sensitive issue.

The Chinese Embassy also warned in a recent statement that the Philippine government’s security cooperation with Washington “will drag the Philippines into the abyss of geopolitical strife and damage its economic development at the end of the day.”

The long-seething territorial conflicts continue to be a major irritant in Philippine-China relations. Marcos's administration has filed at least 77 of more than 200 diplomatic protests against China’s increasingly assertive actions in the disputed waters since he took office last year.

The Philippines used to host two of the largest U.S. Navy and Air Force bases outside the American mainland. The bases were shut down in the early 1990s after the Philippine Senate rejected an extension, but American forces later returned for large-scale combat exercises with Filipino troops under a Visiting Forces Agreement.

The Philippine Constitution prohibits the permanent basing of foreign troops and their involvement in local combat. The 2014 agreement allows visiting American forces to stay indefinitely in rotating batches in barracks and other buildings they construct within designated Philippine camps with their defense equipment, except nuclear weapons.

The Department of National Defense in Manila said the American military presence was not a re-establishment of U.S. military bases in the Philippines, as opponents have asserted.


abcnews.go.com

Philippines names 4 new camps for US forces amid China fury

The Philippine government has identified four new military camps, including some across the sea from Taiwan, where rotating batches of American forces will be allowed to be stationed indefinitely despite strong objections from China
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
China Ships Circle Japan's Disputed Senkaku Islands for Over 80 Hours
John Feng
5–7 minutes
China's coast guard vessels completed a record-long deployment to the territorial waters off the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands on Sunday after refusing orders to leave for 80 hours and 36 minutes, Japanese maritime authorities said.

Four white hull China Coast Guard vessels entered the waters around the disputed islands on Thursday morning local time and stayed in the area until late on Sunday, according to the Japanese coast guard's 11th regional headquarters in Naha, Okinawa.

The uninhabited islets in the East China Sea have been a long-running point of friction between Tokyo and Beijing. China's leaders, who call the islands Diaoyu, sanctioned the patrol as Japan's top diplomat arrived in Beijing for talks over the weekend.

Taiwan also claims the islands as Diaoyutai, but more than a decade of warming ties between Taipei and Tokyo have largely prevented similar flare-ups. The two governments signed a resource sharing agreement in 2013.
China Ships Log Record Senkaku Islands Intrusion
This aerial shot taken on September 15, 2010, shows the disputed islands known as the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyu in China in the East China Sea. China's coast guard vessels completed a record-long deployment there on Sunday. JIJI PRESS/AFP via Getty Images

The Japan Coast Guard said the Chinese boats harassed a pair of Japanese fishing boats around the island chain in what was now a routine practice. At least one of the Chinese vessels was armed with an "autocannon," the statement said, in the 67th consecutive day of such operations in the territorial waters or the adjoining contiguous zone of the Senkakus.

The duration of the weekend's intrusion was the longest since Chinese maritime security boats stayed near the Senkakus for 72 hours and 45 minutes on December 22-25.

China claims the Senkakus via its separate claim to Taiwan—they belong to one of the island's counties, according to Beijing's laws. Its coast guard vessels significantly ramped up the rarely interrupted sovereignty patrols after Japan nationalized the islands in 2012.

"Since then, China has been using this as an excuse to send the coast guard and other agencies' ships into Japan's contiguous zone almost every day except for stormy weather days, and these ships intrude into Japanese territorial waters several times a month," Japan's foreign ministry said on its website.

Beijing's frequent maneuvers have alarmed Tokyo, which argues China is seeking to change the long-standing status quo in the East China Sea, just as it has in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

The United States, which considers Japan its most important ally in Asia, doesn't take a position on sovereignty over the Senkakus, but recognizes Japan's administration over them. Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan security treaty covers attacks on the island group, too, President Joe Biden told Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan in October 2021 in the hours after the latter assumed office.
China Ships Log Record Senkaku Islands Intrusion
A Chinese national living holds up a badge of the flag of China during a protest against Japan's nationalization of the disputed Senkaku Islands, known as Diaoyu in China, in front of the Japanese embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on September 19, 2012. China's coast guard vessels completed a record-long deployment there on Sunday. SAEED KHAN/AFP via Getty Images

Beijing and Tokyo are marking 51 years of formal diplomatic relations this year. On March 31, a day before Japan's Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi began a scheduled visit to Beijing, China said it had established a hotline between the Chinese and Japanese defense ministries to manage air and maritime issues.

In three-hour talks on Saturday with Chinese opposite number Qin Gang, Hayashi raised concerns about the situation in the East China Sea as well as "China's increased military activities around Japan, including its cooperation with Russia," his ministry said in a readout.

In another meeting later on Saturday with Wang Yi, the Communist Party's top foreign affairs official, Hayashi repeated his concerns about the Senkakus tensions and lodged protests over the detention in Beijing last month of a Japanese national China suspects of spying.

Chinese readouts of both sets of talks didn't reference the two countries' territorial dispute. Qin told his Japanese counterpart: "Faced with disputes and differences, forming exclusive blocs and shouting out one-sided demands to exert pressure will not solve any problem, but only widen the barrier between each other."

Relations between China and Japan were stable overall, but faced "various disturbances and interference," Wang said, according to an account by the Chinese foreign ministry.

"The fundamental cause is that some forces in Japan deliberately follow the erroneous China policy of the United States, and cooperate with the United States to smear China and make provocations on issues concerning China's core interests," he said. "Such moves are strategically short-sighted, politically wrong and even diplomatically unwise."

Japan's embassy in Washington and the Chinese coast guard didn't return separate emails seeking comment.
www.newsweek.com

China ships circle Japan's disputed Senkaku Islands for over 80 hours

The record-breaking intrusion happened as Japan's foreign minister met with senior counterparts in China over the weekend.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

Macron, Von der Leyen to visit China in intensive China-EU interactions​


Global Times
Ulrich Speck
@ulrichspeck
·
4m
Scramble for Europe: China promising Europe peace and prosperity if it decouples from the US.

Macron, Von der Leyen to visit China in intensive China-EU interactions

Both sides should overcome US interference, focus on cooperation

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks at an EU summit in Brussels on December 15, 2022. Photo: VCG

On the heels of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit China from April 5 to 7, and they are likely to be followed by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in mid-April, as China's busy diplomatic agenda continues.
The intense China-EU interactions highlighted a consensus shared by China and the EU that the two sides should enhance substantial in-person communication and exchanges to promote mutual understanding amid vast changes in the international landscape, according to observers.
It is an urgent task for China and the EU to overcome external interference and some internal noises, focus on pragmatic areas in bilateral relations and jointly seek a stable and healthy development of the relationship, injecting positivity and certainty into a turbulent world, observers said.
As China has proposed a 12-point peace plan for resolving the Ukraine crisis, the EU should be encouraged to exercise its diplomatic autonomy, and instead of pressuring China and being hijacked by the US, it should take control of its own destiny to act in a way conducive to ending hostilities and promoting ceasefire for Europe's own sustainable peace and security, they noted.
Enhancing understanding
At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Macron will pay a state visit to China from April 5 to 7, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying announced on Monday.
During the visit, Macron will meet with Xi as well as Premier Li Qiang and top legislator Zhao Leji. He will also visit Guangzhou in South China's Guangdong Province, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said at Monday's routine press briefing.
During the meeting, Xi and Macron will jointly map out the future development of bilateral relations, deepen China-France and China-EU cooperation in various fields, and have an in-depth exchange of views on major international and regional hotspot issues, Mao said.
In recent years, under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, China-France relations have maintained sound development, enjoying effective strategic communication, fruitful practical cooperation, and sound communication and coordination in international and regional affairs, the spokesperson said.
China is ready to work with France to take this visit as an opportunity to produce new outcomes in the close and enduring comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries, promote the sound development of China-EU relations and contribute to world peace, stability, and development, Mao said.
Mao also announced on Monday, "As agreed between China and the European Union, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen will visit China from April 5 to 7."
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the China-EU comprehensive strategic partnership. The sound and stable development of China-EU relations is in the interests of both sides' common interests and conducive to world peace and stability, Mao said.
Amid the turbulent international situation, rising global security challenges and sluggish economic recovery, China and the EU should "uphold the spirit of mutual respect and win-win cooperation, overcome disruptions and difficulties, and focus on consensus and cooperation," Mao noted.
Analysts pointed to the vast geopolitical changes, the US' tighter grasp of Europe in its rivalry with China, and the scarcity of China-EU exchanges at various levels as factors leading to a decline in China-EU political trust.
Fu Cong, head of the Chinese mission to the EU, told the Global Times on Monday that "These important visits, first of all, demonstrate the great importance the European countries and EU institutions attach to their relations with China, as they see China as an important player on global issues."
"At the same time, as China's economy is staging a robust rebound, they are also coming to explore business opportunities in such a huge and thriving market. I also hope that the European leaders take these opportunities to have a good understanding of China's domestic and foreign policies," Fu said.
"I believe these interactions will inject a strong impetus into China-Europe relations and provide clear guidance for our future cooperation," Fu noted.
Cui Hongjian, director of the Department of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times on Monday that intensive visits by European leaders highlighted a bilateral consensus that China and the EU should maintain smooth communication channels and hold substantial exchanges, so as to overcome the mutual recognition gaps and remove trust deficits, implementing leaders' consensus into pragmatic actions.
Even if some differences cannot be resolved, communication itself is a process of trust building, analysts said, underscoring that China and the EU, as two pillars of the global landscape, "should and could" work with each other in a positive and constructive way when the world faces armed conflict and risks of recession.
Zhao Junjie, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of European Studies, noted the key lies in Europe's pragmatic and realistic assessment of China's resilience to US' interference and attempts to sow discord.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has tied the EU tighter to Washington's chariot, but the EU should carefully evaluate US credibility in security and revisit its record of abandoning allies when it needed to, analysts said.
It cannot be denied that the EU is easily influenced by the US in its China policy due to its ideological similarity and military alliance, but "if the EU wants to enhance autonomy and maximize its own interests through a real balance between China and the US, it should think more of pragmatic interests in cooperation with China rather than having ideology, abstract values or another major power dominate the agenda, Zhao said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (left) speaks during a debate on the results of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as part of a plenary session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, on February 15, 2023. Photo: VCG
Expanding common ground

Despite their differences, China and the EU agree on the importance of China-EU relations, share a consensus for talking and need to cooperate in a wide range of areas, Cui said.
One topic at the center of European and US media coverage of Macron and Von der Leyen's visit is the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Citing anonymous officials, Reuters reported that Macron would put forward the EU stance in swaying China on the issue, and Russia's decision to station nuclear weapons in Belarus may give the EU a bargaining chip.
China released a 12-point position paper on the anniversary of the Ukraine crisis to advocate a political settlement, showing its sincerity and efforts in promoting an end to hostilities and negotiations between the involved parties.
Although China and the EU have a wide divergence of views on the crisis, the EU holds a positive attitude and expectations for China's capacity and willingness to play a bigger role in mediation and global security governance, Cui said.

The conditions might not be mature for peace talks at the moment, but the visit can identify China-EU common points and lay the foundation for future joint actions conducive to realizing peace and a better security architecture in Europe, the expert said.
Trade will also feature high on Macron's priorities, as he brings with him a large delegation of business leaders including representatives from EDF, Alstom, Veolia and the aerospace giant Airbus, Politico reported. The level of delegation is seen as mirroring German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Beijing trip in late 2022.

With voices advocating "decoupling with China" rising within the bloc, the leader of a major European country leading a host of executives demonstrates how China and the EU are intertwined economically and that the decoupling approach would be neither feasible nor beneficial, analysts said.
Notably, the EU is in a difficult struggle as it is under great pressure from the US to adjust its economic relations with China. The decision by the Netherlands to restrict chip exports is one of the latest examples of Europe yielding to coercion by the US.

With a trade volume amounting to $847.3 billion in 2022, China and EU decoupling will only serve US interests, but make both China and Europe suffer. The US will not compensate the losses of what it calls its "transatlantic allies," analysts said. A wiser choice for Europe would be to take advantage of China's high-quality opening-up and grasp opportunities in China's steadfast advancement of modernization.

The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said in a statement to the Global Times that China and Europe enjoy a strong trading relationship, and many European companies are looking for positive reform and opening-up signals from China. Specific areas of mutual interest to broader cooperation included climate change, biodiversity, WTO reform, international standards setting and alignment on digitalization, according to the statement.
Chinese observers expressed the hope and necessity that China and the EU will shoulder their global responsibilities, downplay differences and jointly contribute to global peace, stability and prosperity in a world in urgent need of certainty.

www.globaltimes.cn

Macron, Von der Leyen to visit China in intensive China-EU interactions - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn
 
Bps1691

Bps1691

Veteran Member
Hear the gurgle getting louder as this country circles further down the drain?

Meanwhile the idiots in this country are focused on the political Stalinistic show trial starting for Trump in the communist stronghold of New Jerk (York) city.

1680633276506.png
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Ulrich Speck
@ulrichspeck
11h

Beijing's tactics paying off? "French officials close to Macron have indicated that he is considering offering Xi a deal along the lines of this: France will resist US pressure to decouple from China if Beijing invests diplomatic capital in bringing about peace in Ukraine."
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643141237808013313
View: https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1643141237808013313?s=20

Plenty of important background and analysis in the latest edition of Noah's excellent newsletter on EU-China.
The picture that is emerging from here (as from elsewhere): Macron and Scholz pursuing a policy of deeper engagement with China, at least partially driven by economic considerations -- while von der Leyen is trying to push for partial decoupling out of geopolitical concerns.
jward said:

Macron, Von der Leyen to visit China in intensive China-EU interactions​


Global Times
Ulrich Speck
@ulrichspeck
·
4m
Scramble for Europe: China promising Europe peace and prosperity if it decouples from the US.

Macron, Von der Leyen to visit China in intensive China-EU interactions

Both sides should overcome US interference, focus on cooperation

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks at an EU summit in Brussels on December 15, 2022. Photo: VCG

On the heels of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit China from April 5 to 7, and they are likely to be followed by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in mid-April, as China's busy diplomatic agenda continues.
The intense China-EU interactions highlighted a consensus shared by China and the EU that the two sides should enhance substantial in-person communication and exchanges to promote mutual understanding amid vast changes in the international landscape, according to observers.
It is an urgent task for China and the EU to overcome external interference and some internal noises, focus on pragmatic areas in bilateral relations and jointly seek a stable and healthy development of the relationship, injecting positivity and certainty into a turbulent world, observers said.
As China has proposed a 12-point peace plan for resolving the Ukraine crisis, the EU should be encouraged to exercise its diplomatic autonomy, and instead of pressuring China and being hijacked by the US, it should take control of its own destiny to act in a way conducive to ending hostilities and promoting ceasefire for Europe's own sustainable peace and security, they noted.
Enhancing understanding
At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Macron will pay a state visit to China from April 5 to 7, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying announced on Monday.
During the visit, Macron will meet with Xi as well as Premier Li Qiang and top legislator Zhao Leji. He will also visit Guangzhou in South China's Guangdong Province, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said at Monday's routine press briefing.
During the meeting, Xi and Macron will jointly map out the future development of bilateral relations, deepen China-France and China-EU cooperation in various fields, and have an in-depth exchange of views on major international and regional hotspot issues, Mao said.
In recent years, under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, China-France relations have maintained sound development, enjoying effective strategic communication, fruitful practical cooperation, and sound communication and coordination in international and regional affairs, the spokesperson said.
China is ready to work with France to take this visit as an opportunity to produce new outcomes in the close and enduring comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries, promote the sound development of China-EU relations and contribute to world peace, stability, and development, Mao said.
Mao also announced on Monday, "As agreed between China and the European Union, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen will visit China from April 5 to 7."
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the China-EU comprehensive strategic partnership. The sound and stable development of China-EU relations is in the interests of both sides' common interests and conducive to world peace and stability, Mao said.
Amid the turbulent international situation, rising global security challenges and sluggish economic recovery, China and the EU should "uphold the spirit of mutual respect and win-win cooperation, overcome disruptions and difficulties, and focus on consensus and cooperation," Mao noted.
Analysts pointed to the vast geopolitical changes, the US' tighter grasp of Europe in its rivalry with China, and the scarcity of China-EU exchanges at various levels as factors leading to a decline in China-EU political trust.
Fu Cong, head of the Chinese mission to the EU, told the Global Times on Monday that "These important visits, first of all, demonstrate the great importance the European countries and EU institutions attach to their relations with China, as they see China as an important player on global issues."
"At the same time, as China's economy is staging a robust rebound, they are also coming to explore business opportunities in such a huge and thriving market. I also hope that the European leaders take these opportunities to have a good understanding of China's domestic and foreign policies," Fu said.
"I believe these interactions will inject a strong impetus into China-Europe relations and provide clear guidance for our future cooperation," Fu noted.
Cui Hongjian, director of the Department of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times on Monday that intensive visits by European leaders highlighted a bilateral consensus that China and the EU should maintain smooth communication channels and hold substantial exchanges, so as to overcome the mutual recognition gaps and remove trust deficits, implementing leaders' consensus into pragmatic actions.
Even if some differences cannot be resolved, communication itself is a process of trust building, analysts said, underscoring that China and the EU, as two pillars of the global landscape, "should and could" work with each other in a positive and constructive way when the world faces armed conflict and risks of recession.
Zhao Junjie, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of European Studies, noted the key lies in Europe's pragmatic and realistic assessment of China's resilience to US' interference and attempts to sow discord.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has tied the EU tighter to Washington's chariot, but the EU should carefully evaluate US credibility in security and revisit its record of abandoning allies when it needed to, analysts said.
It cannot be denied that the EU is easily influenced by the US in its China policy due to its ideological similarity and military alliance, but "if the EU wants to enhance autonomy and maximize its own interests through a real balance between China and the US, it should think more of pragmatic interests in cooperation with China rather than having ideology, abstract values or another major power dominate the agenda, Zhao said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (left) speaks during a debate on the results of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as part of a plenary session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, on February 15, 2023. Photo: VCG
Expanding common ground

Despite their differences, China and the EU agree on the importance of China-EU relations, share a consensus for talking and need to cooperate in a wide range of areas, Cui said.
One topic at the center of European and US media coverage of Macron and Von der Leyen's visit is the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Citing anonymous officials, Reuters reported that Macron would put forward the EU stance in swaying China on the issue, and Russia's decision to station nuclear weapons in Belarus may give the EU a bargaining chip.
China released a 12-point position paper on the anniversary of the Ukraine crisis to advocate a political settlement, showing its sincerity and efforts in promoting an end to hostilities and negotiations between the involved parties.
Although China and the EU have a wide divergence of views on the crisis, the EU holds a positive attitude and expectations for China's capacity and willingness to play a bigger role in mediation and global security governance, Cui said.

The conditions might not be mature for peace talks at the moment, but the visit can identify China-EU common points and lay the foundation for future joint actions conducive to realizing peace and a better security architecture in Europe, the expert said.
Trade will also feature high on Macron's priorities, as he brings with him a large delegation of business leaders including representatives from EDF, Alstom, Veolia and the aerospace giant Airbus, Politico reported. The level of delegation is seen as mirroring German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Beijing trip in late 2022.

With voices advocating "decoupling with China" rising within the bloc, the leader of a major European country leading a host of executives demonstrates how China and the EU are intertwined economically and that the decoupling approach would be neither feasible nor beneficial, analysts said.
Notably, the EU is in a difficult struggle as it is under great pressure from the US to adjust its economic relations with China. The decision by the Netherlands to restrict chip exports is one of the latest examples of Europe yielding to coercion by the US.

With a trade volume amounting to $847.3 billion in 2022, China and EU decoupling will only serve US interests, but make both China and Europe suffer. The US will not compensate the losses of what it calls its "transatlantic allies," analysts said. A wiser choice for Europe would be to take advantage of China's high-quality opening-up and grasp opportunities in China's steadfast advancement of modernization.

The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said in a statement to the Global Times that China and Europe enjoy a strong trading relationship, and many European companies are looking for positive reform and opening-up signals from China. Specific areas of mutual interest to broader cooperation included climate change, biodiversity, WTO reform, international standards setting and alignment on digitalization, according to the statement.
Chinese observers expressed the hope and necessity that China and the EU will shoulder their global responsibilities, downplay differences and jointly contribute to global peace, stability and prosperity in a world in urgent need of certainty.

www.globaltimes.cn

Macron, Von der Leyen to visit China in intensive China-EU interactions - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn
Click to expand...
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Hans Kristensen
@nukestrat

I spoke with Reuters about China’s “near-continuous” SSBN patrols. It’s a work in progress. Widely assumed it means nukes onboard but that is still unstated; would break normal practice. Also, stated range of new missile insufficient to target continental US from South China Sea.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643213903994683394
View: https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1643213903994683394?s=20


Replying to
@nukestrat
While it's not explicitly stated, CMPR's statement that they are conducting "continuous at sea deterrent patrols" implies to me that it's highly likely that DoD assesses that they're armed and not just boring holes in the water with a boatload of unarmed missiles or ballast cans.

Replying to
@tshugart3
Probably. Still haven’t heard anyone officially says that. But that is obvious what “deterrent patrol” means here.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

How Five Days in March Will Change Japan’s Foreign Policy​


by James Przystup​



Vladimir Lenin once observed that “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” And then there were Five Days in March, when a new and promising future began to unfold—one marked by broad-based cooperation among democratic allies and a growing awareness of the convergence of security in the Indo-Pacific and Europe.

The Five Days began on March 16, when Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida welcomed the Republic of Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol, the first visit by a Korean president in twelve years. The summit came about as a result of Yoon’s decision to move beyond the past, reflected in the contentious dispute over wartime forced labor, to focus on the future in the Korea-Japan relations and the development of political, economic, and security ties. The summit marked a return to the “Future-Oriented Relationship,” outlined in the joint statement at the Kim-Obuchi Summit of 1998.

On March 17, the defense ministers of Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy met in Tokyo to discuss the basic design of a sixth-generation fighter aircraft to be co-produced under the Global Compact Air Program, agreed to in December 2022. The meeting followed the January 10 announcement by Prime Ministers Kishida and Giorgia Meloni to upgrade Japan-Italy ties to the level of a strategic partnership.

On March 18, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Tokyo to participate in the first Japan-Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations focused on economic security. Both governments condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, expressed support for the rules-based international economic and political order, and opposition to economic coercion. The governments also agreed to take steps to strengthen defense and security cooperation and develop their strategic dialogue. Their joint statement expressed the recognition that “the security of Europe and that of the Indo-Pacific are closely linked.”

On March 20, Kishida, in New Delhi, announced “Japan’s New Plan for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific – Together with India as an Indispensable Partner. “
As for the New Plan, Kishida explained the present need, an era in which there is no agreement on what the international order should be. At this point “FOIP is a vision that is in fact gaining in relevance…a visionary concept…whose fundamental concept remains the same…We will enhance the connectivity of the Indo-Pacific region…into a place that values, freedom, the rule of law, free from force or coercion, and make it prosperous.” The prime minister set out “three Principles for Peace and Rules for Prosperity to include “respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and opposition to unilateral changes in the status quo by force.” He condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and expressed Japan’s opposition to “any unilateral changes into the status quo by force anywhere in the world.”

Kishida committed Japan’s economic, financial, and technological resources to address issues of concern across the Global South, including, high-quality infrastructure, health, the environment, digital connectivity, security in the maritime domain, and the strengthening of maritime law enforcement capabilities. The New Plan would highlight diversity, inclusion, openness, and equal partnership.

So where are these Five Days in March heading?
In Northeast Asia, the normalization of the ROK-Japan relationship has opened the door to increased security, diplomatic, and economic cooperation. In the realm of security, it has enhanced deterrence against the mutually shared threat posed by North Korea’s rapidly expanding missile and nuclear programs. Normalization has also expanded opportunities for trilateral cooperation with the United States, not only in Northeast Asia but also in support of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific as outlined in the Phnom Penh Statement on U.S.-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Partnership for the Indo-Pacific, released on November 13, 2022.

Meanwhile, Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom’s agreement on the co-production of a sixth-generation fighter speaks to the increasing engagement of European democracies in the Indo-Pacific. Over the past several years, governments in France, the Netherlands, Germany, and the UK as well as the European Union have released their respective Indo-Pacific strategies. Each focused on the importance of stability in the Indo-Pacific to European prosperity and on the challenges posed by China to regional security and the rules-based international order.

The UK’s Integrated security review of 2021 announced a “tilt” toward the Indo-Pacific, an engagement marked by “a greater and more persistent presence than any European country.” The UK’s Integrated Refresh Review 2023, called attention to “a new network of ‘Atlantic-Pacific’ partnerships, based on a shared view that the prosperity and security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific are inextricably linked.” The 2023 document moved engagement from a “tilt” to engagement, as a “stronger and enduring, and a permanent pillar of the UK’s international policy.” The AUKUS agreement is a case in point.

That Kishida chose New Delhi as the launch site for his New Free and Open Indo-Pacific Plan honors the history of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific. New Delhi was, as Kishida acknowledged, the stage on which former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe set out the initial vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Likewise, it reflects the long-standing Japan-India friendship, having grown in strategic significance during the Abe-Modi years as both Tokyo and New Delhi became increasingly concerned about China’s increasing assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific region. And, it marked a turn to the Global South and recognition of India’s leading role there.

The Five Days in March, capped by Kishida’s visit to Ukraine, again underscored the growing convergence of security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, those Five Days in March also played into the three days in Moscow of the Putin-Xi Summit and offered a clear choice—an international order governed by authoritarianism and control or a future defined by freedom and openness.

James Przystup is a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute.
Image: Shutterstock.

nationalinterest.org

How Five Days in March Will Change Japan’s Foreign Policy

Changes include the normalization of Japan-Korean relations, a growing convergence of security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, and more.
nationalinterest.org nationalinterest.org
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
Ulrich Speck
@ulrichspeck
11h

Beijing's tactics paying off? "French officials close to Macron have indicated that he is considering offering Xi a deal along the lines of this: France will resist US pressure to decouple from China if Beijing invests diplomatic capital in bringing about peace in Ukraine."
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643141237808013313
View: https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1643141237808013313?s=20

Plenty of important background and analysis in the latest edition of Noah's excellent newsletter on EU-China.
The picture that is emerging from here (as from elsewhere): Macron and Scholz pursuing a policy of deeper engagement with China, at least partially driven by economic considerations -- while von der Leyen is trying to push for partial decoupling out of geopolitical concerns.
Click to expand...

Macron and Scholz are playing with fire if so....
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
Hans Kristensen
@nukestrat

I spoke with Reuters about China’s “near-continuous” SSBN patrols. It’s a work in progress. Widely assumed it means nukes onboard but that is still unstated; would break normal practice. Also, stated range of new missile insufficient to target continental US from South China Sea.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643213903994683394
View: https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1643213903994683394?s=20


Replying to
@nukestrat
While it's not explicitly stated, CMPR's statement that they are conducting "continuous at sea deterrent patrols" implies to me that it's highly likely that DoD assesses that they're armed and not just boring holes in the water with a boatload of unarmed missiles or ballast cans.

Replying to
@tshugart3
Probably. Still haven’t heard anyone officially says that. But that is obvious what “deterrent patrol” means here.
Click to expand...

Hummm....
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Unbelievable that 79 is now the good ole days- where our worst office holder ever was at least, at heart, a decent man, and we were still young nuff that most o' the worry fell to other, actual adults... except for an extra quilt on the bed, a few bomb threats at local venues and bridges that would interrupt our days, and the endless gas lines, there was still a good time to be had in America, and it was still an OK time to be growing up... and the American 'can-do', 'get er done spirit was alive and well- at least in my AO.

... what on earth have we become? I wish instead of those endless blocks o' chronological history someone had woven the narrative together and made us understand that "if you can keep it" and "but for eternal vigilance" weren't just hallmark greeting card pabulum, but one of the most important o' life's lessons to learn, and amongst the most costly- not only for us, but the world- should we fail.
Housecarl said:
Feels like someone turned the clock back to 1979 while changing the table seating at the same time....
Click to expand...
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Satoshi Sugiyama
@SatoshiJournal
55s

TOKYO, April 5 (Reuters) - Japan on Wednesday said it plans to offer friendly nations financial assistance to help them bolster their defences, marking Tokyo's first unambiguous departure from rules that forbid using international aid for military purposes.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
Satoshi Sugiyama
@SatoshiJournal
55s

TOKYO, April 5 (Reuters) - Japan on Wednesday said it plans to offer friendly nations financial assistance to help them bolster their defences, marking Tokyo's first unambiguous departure from rules that forbid using international aid for military purposes.
Click to expand...

BIG DOT!!!!!

Hummm...I wonder if that means good terms for Japanese produced defense materials since before this Japan was pretty much shut out of the international arms sellers marker due to the cost of their wares from small batch runs with high tooling and R&D costs?
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
At the rate everyone's ramping up, I imagine there is market shares enough for everyone- and some will still be left unsupplied- haven't heard anything, yet, about their amping up industrial capacity, though.

Housecarl said:
BIG DOT!!!!!

Hummm...I wonder if that means good terms for Japanese produced defense materials since before this Japan was pretty much shut out of the international arms sellers marker due to the cost of their wares from small batch runs with high tooling and R&D costs?
Click to expand...
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Teddy Locsin Jr.
@teddyboylocsin

Morale won't matter. A war between the US and China will be fought in the South China Sea and the littoral states around it: all the Chinese coastal cities. There will only be shock as there will be in the handful of American cities China has the little nuclear arsenal to attack with an estimated 70 million casualties. I am not finished reading the boring book. People on both sides of the Pacific will be walking aimlessly around in tatters, burns showing, peeled skins flapping with their stagger. But if that prospect is too intolerable to seriously consider then the only guarantee of peace will fail—that is the deterrent readiness for nuclear war at the drop of hat. At any rate that prospect will materialize. The rest is evaporation. In a way it is the honorable way to go: for one side Asian hegemony or nothing; for the other: freedom or death. The middle ground we cannot accept: a sphere of influence that will include our country. Our freedom for American safety; our honor as free men for the dishonor of America for letting friends down. Live free but walk with head bowed. They did take longer to liberate us than Europe which disdained America as parvenu.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643673030806183952
View: https://twitter.com/teddyboylocsin/status/1643673030806183952?s=20

 
jward

jward

passin' thru
IANS
@ians_india
1m

#SouthKorea's Unification Ministry said it will take necessary steps if #NorthKorea does not respond to Seoul's call to stop the unauthorized use of a now-shuttered joint industrial park in the North.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Tom Shugart
@tshugart3

“As [@CNASdc]’s @tshugart3
puts it: By marrying great accuracy with numerous ballistic missiles, China may have developed a capability that the Soviet armed forces never had: the ability to strike effectively, in a matter of minutes…”
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643618568477585416
View: https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1643618568477585416?s=20

“…, U.S. and allied bases, logistical facilities, and command centers without resorting to the use of nuclear weapons, and without having established air superiority.”
(my name is misspelled, but I’ll take it…)
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643618575733649408
View: https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1643618575733649408?s=20



These PLARF inventory estimates, which the author states are based on translated PLA documents integrated with “an analysis of the numbers of transporter-erectors and transporters in open-source internet photographs and imagery”, are astounding.

Nearly 1K DF-21Ds? Yikes.
1680756689190.png
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
continued. . .

I’d be happy to hear the thoughts of PLARF experts on the numbers above, which are quite high compared to what I’ve seen before.
Of course, DoD now only says things like “500+” when it comes to total missile numbers, so who knows…
Here are Mr. Trevethan's numbers, reorganized for comparison to DoD's (from the 2022 China Military Power report).

1680756817238.png
 
jward

jward

passin' thru





cameron
@cameron19460429
9h

Replying to
@tshugart3
It’s important to remember the U.S has ~7000 cruise missiles of all kinds. And will be procuring JASSM alone at a rate of 1,100 or so a year so it’s not a one sided issue. Then you have PRSM and ATACMS procurement and LRHW(DARK EAGLE). It’s not a one sided long range fires situat

jward said:
continued. . .

I’d be happy to hear the thoughts of PLARF experts on the numbers above, which are quite high compared to what I’ve seen before.
Of course, DoD now only says things like “500+” when it comes to total missile numbers, so who knows…
Here are Mr. Trevethan's numbers, reorganized for comparison to DoD's (from the 2022 China Military Power report).

View attachment 406449
Click to expand...
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
continued. . .

I’d be happy to hear the thoughts of PLARF experts on the numbers above, which are quite high compared to what I’ve seen before.
Of course, DoD now only says things like “500+” when it comes to total missile numbers, so who knows…
Here are Mr. Trevethan's numbers, reorganized for comparison to DoD's (from the 2022 China Military Power report).

View attachment 406449
Click to expand...

I have to wonder if those are total inventory numbers and not missile and launcher numbers.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

China to inspect ships in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan says won't cooperate​


2 minute readApril 5, 2023
7:52 PM CDT
Last Updated 3 hours ago

BEIJING, April 6 (Reuters) - China's Fujian maritime safety administration launched a three-day special joint patrol and inspection operation in the central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait that includes moves to board ships, it said on its WeChat account.

The move comes amid heightened tensions between China and Taiwan, with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy hosting Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California on Wednesday, becoming the most senior U.S. figure to meet a Taiwanese leader on U.S. soil in decades.

The maritime safety authority in the southeastern Chinese province said on Wednesday the operation included "on-site inspections" on direct cargo ships and construction vessels on both sides of the Taiwan Strait "to ensure the safety of vessel navigation and ensure the safe and orderly operation of key projects on water".

​

Taiwan's Transport Ministry's Maritime and Ports Bureau said in a statement late Wednesday said it has lodged a strong protest with China about the move.
It said it has notified relevant shipping operators that if they encounter such requests from China they should refuse them and immediately notify Taiwan's coast guard to render assistance.

"If the mainland side insists on taking one-sided actions, it will create obstacles to normal exchanges between the two sides. We will be forced to take corresponding measures," it added, without giving details.

Areas covered by the operation include the Pingtan Taiwan direct container route, the "small three links" passenger route, the Taiwan Strait vessel customary route, the densely navigable areas of commercial and fishing vessels, and areas with frequent illegal sand mining activities.
The "small three links" passenger route refers to boat routes between Taiwan's Kinmen and Matsu islands which sit opposite China and Chinese cities.

The fleet, a joint special operation with East China Sea Rescue Bureau and the East China Sea Navigation Support Center, will continue to carry out cruise inspections in the central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait over the next two days.
www.reuters.com

China to inspect ships in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan says won't cooperate

Fujian maritime safety administration launched a three-day special joint patrol and inspection operation in central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait that includes moves to board ships.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:

China to inspect ships in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan says won't cooperate​


2 minute readApril 5, 2023
7:52 PM CDT
Last Updated 3 hours ago

BEIJING, April 6 (Reuters) - China's Fujian maritime safety administration launched a three-day special joint patrol and inspection operation in the central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait that includes moves to board ships, it said on its WeChat account.

The move comes amid heightened tensions between China and Taiwan, with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy hosting Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California on Wednesday, becoming the most senior U.S. figure to meet a Taiwanese leader on U.S. soil in decades.

The maritime safety authority in the southeastern Chinese province said on Wednesday the operation included "on-site inspections" on direct cargo ships and construction vessels on both sides of the Taiwan Strait "to ensure the safety of vessel navigation and ensure the safe and orderly operation of key projects on water".

​

Taiwan's Transport Ministry's Maritime and Ports Bureau said in a statement late Wednesday said it has lodged a strong protest with China about the move.
It said it has notified relevant shipping operators that if they encounter such requests from China they should refuse them and immediately notify Taiwan's coast guard to render assistance.

"If the mainland side insists on taking one-sided actions, it will create obstacles to normal exchanges between the two sides. We will be forced to take corresponding measures," it added, without giving details.

Areas covered by the operation include the Pingtan Taiwan direct container route, the "small three links" passenger route, the Taiwan Strait vessel customary route, the densely navigable areas of commercial and fishing vessels, and areas with frequent illegal sand mining activities.
The "small three links" passenger route refers to boat routes between Taiwan's Kinmen and Matsu islands which sit opposite China and Chinese cities.

The fleet, a joint special operation with East China Sea Rescue Bureau and the East China Sea Navigation Support Center, will continue to carry out cruise inspections in the central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait over the next two days.
www.reuters.com

China to inspect ships in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan says won't cooperate

Fujian maritime safety administration launched a three-day special joint patrol and inspection operation in central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait that includes moves to board ships.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...

This is not going to end well...
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Helicopters crash all the time, but knowing that there was a chinese aircraft carrier nearby during this accident does not give me the warm fuzzies a'tall.

Housecarl said:
This is not going to end well...
Click to expand...


Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks

BREAKING: Japanese self defence force helicoptor with multiple people onboard has disappeared near Miyakojima island, Japan - NHK

4:09 AM · Apr 6, 2023
#UPDATE: Japan's Ministry of Defenece says that 10 people were on board the helicopter that disappeared - NHK

BREAKING: A division commander of Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force may have been onboard the helicopter, govt officials say - Tv Asahi
news.tv-asahi.co.jp

速報・今日のニュース

テレビ朝日が配信している速報・今日のニュース一覧。政治・経済・社会・国際からエンタメ・スポーツまで、速報・今日のニュースを一覧でお届けします。
news.tv-asahi.co.jp news.tv-asahi.co.jp
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643916349910003712
View: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1643916349910003712?s=20


Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
20m

UPDATE: Japan's Coast Guard may have found parts of missing chopper in the sea - Kyodo
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
https://twitter.com/Faytuks
Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
2h


Rough location of where the helicopter disappeared.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643904406176366593
View: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1643904406176366593?s=20


jward said:
Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
1h

UPDATE: The Japanese helicopter that disappeared was conducting aerial reconnaissance - Kyodo
The missing helicopter is a UH60JA
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643919167249104897
View: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1643919167249104897?s=20
Click to expand...
jward said:
Helicopters crash all the time, but knowing that there was a chinese aircraft carrier nearby during this accident does not give me the warm fuzzies a'tall.




Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks

BREAKING: Japanese self defence force helicoptor with multiple people onboard has disappeared near Miyakojima island, Japan - NHK

4:09 AM · Apr 6, 2023
#UPDATE: Japan's Ministry of Defenece says that 10 people were on board the helicopter that disappeared - NHK

BREAKING: A division commander of Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force may have been onboard the helicopter, govt officials say - Tv Asahi
news.tv-asahi.co.jp

速報・今日のニュース

テレビ朝日が配信している速報・今日のニュース一覧。政治・経済・社会・国際からエンタメ・スポーツまで、速報・今日のニュースを一覧でお届けします。
news.tv-asahi.co.jp news.tv-asahi.co.jp
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643916349910003712
View: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1643916349910003712?s=20


Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
20m

UPDATE: Japan's Coast Guard may have found parts of missing chopper in the sea - Kyodo
Click to expand...
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
Apostle Dr Deza
@ApostleDeza
16h
[BREAKING NEWS]

China has once again refused a telephonic conversation with The USA President Xi has told Biden “Don’t call us we will call you” China has equally become reluctant in giving the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken a new date for him to visit Beijing.…
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643847791440166912
View: https://twitter.com/ApostleDeza/status/1643847791440166912?s=20
Click to expand...

It's long past the time for bluntness with Xi and company. Just MHO.....
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

All quiet for now on South Korea’s northern front​


Daniel Sneider​



On a recent visit to the Joint Security Area in the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea, as joint US-South Korean military exercises were underway, I found no sign of tension.
Instead, there was an eerie quiet, marked by the almost complete absence of North Koreans. Even in the truce village where North Korean guards used to strut proudly, not a single North Korean could be seen.
On rare occasions, they emerge fully covered in hazmat suits, the norm since the Covid pandemic began, the United Nations Command told me. The sighting that day of three North Korean soldiers in the distance, crossing a field in the Joint Security Area, was a rarity.

The strange calm belied the wave of vitriolic North Korean propaganda that accompanied the restarting of large-scale joint military field exercises in March after a five-year hiatus. State-run North Korean media showed rallies of teens eager to sign up for the military, holding signs declaring “Death to America” and vowing to “slice them into pieces.”
A joint US, South Korean and Japanese naval drill on April 3 prompted a North Korean denunciation of “war maniacs” and a pledge to meet this “military provocation” with their own response.
A couple of days earlier, Kim Yo Jong, the sister of the North Korean dictator, issued a statement assailing a purported Ukrainian desire to deploy US nuclear weapons. It was widely interpreted as a barely veiled response to South Korean calls for shoring up deterrence with a return of US nuclear weapons.
Kim, who is often unleashed as an attack dog aimed at the South, dismissed “those stooges serving the US as their master and blindly believing in its poor promise,” and predicted that “they will drive the country and the nation into the abyss of ruin.”

Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Jorge Silva / Pool
This inflammatory rhetoric has accompanied the continued accelerated pace of the North Koreans’ missile testing. In recent weeks, they have tested a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile and a submarine-launched “strategic cruise missile” and have simulated tests of an underwater nuclear detonation device.
On March 28, state media showed leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a newly designated Hwasan-31 nuclear warhead capable of being fitted onto a range of shorter-range missiles that can target US and South Korean military bases.
Looking for evidence of North Korean intentions, some observers of North Korea point to a pair of articles that appeared on March 17 and March 28 in the official party daily Rodong Sinmun. They were credited to an unnamed “commentator,” an attribution often used to signal an authoritative view.

Both articles characterized the military exercises as “reckless military provocations” and linked them to a broader buildup in the region, including the recently announced Japanese increase in defense spending.
The commentators also took aim at the conservative South Korean government of Yoon Suk-yeol, who became president last year and has shifted policy away from the previous government’s pursuit of engagement with the north to a tough, security-focused stance.
“The US and South Korean puppet traitors are becoming ever more bellicose and frantic in their attempt to invade” the North, the March 28 commentary said. It accused the US of preparing for a preemptive strike and touted its own nuclear forces’ readiness to act in “self-defense.”

South Korean and US Marines train jointly. Photo: AFP / Kim Jae-Hwan
The North Korean regime has basically abandoned any hope of engaging the US, says former long-time US intelligence analyst Robert Carlin, who drew attention to these commentaries in an article on 38North, a web-based publication on Korea.

“Much as they probably don’t like it,” he told this writer, “they have decided China – and China-plus-Russia – are the geopolitical basket they have to adjust to.” While Carlin doesn’t see evidence that they are seeking conflict, he fears Pyongyang may be thinking of ways to “bait” the Yoon administration.
One goal may be to provoke the South Koreans to end the 2018 South-North agreement, reached by the previous progressive government, which established new demilitarized rules for the JSA, including a ban on carrying weapons.
“Then we would have increased chances of an incident blowing up,” Carlin worries. If forward NK units really have tactical nuclear weapons, the consequences of a dangerous accident are potentially dire.
US officials, however, see no evidence of movement toward a conventional military clash, along the lines of the ones that took place in 2010. At that time, the North Koreans sank a South Korean naval vessel and subsequently shelled a South Korean-controlled island in the waters west of the lines of control established by the 1953 armistice that ended fighting.
“The North Koreans are talking a lot, but they are not doing anything that moves toward conventional military confrontation,” a senior US government official stationed in Korea who closely follows the situation along the border told me.

There is no visible change in the posture of North Korean forces along the northern half of the Demilitarized Zone, and there are no changes in their deployment in the Yellow Sea to the west, he reports.
The incidents in 2010 were exceptional, the American official argues.
Young Kim Jong-un. Photo: Flickr / Zennie Abraham
They came at a time when Kim Jong Un, then a 27-year-old, was being groomed for succession by his father, Kim Jong Il. The younger Kim is believed to have orchestrated those attacks to build his credentials for leadership. “We are not in that situation now and we are not seeing anything that suggests a 2010-level event, from the Korean People’s Army or otherwise,” the official says.

“It’s hard to imagine the KPA running that kind of risk right now with so much US firepower in the area, with both the ROK (Republic of Korea) and US militaries better tuned and prepared than they have been for a long time, and with Yoon keen to show his intolerance of North Korean provocations,” observes former senior State Department official and long-time Korea hand Evans Revere. “Nevertheless, the North Koreans have surprised us before with their occasional stupidity.”

The recent commentaries and rhetoric are mainly aimed at the internal audience, the US official in Korea believes – to justify continued spending on missile and nuclear development at a time when the economy is undergoing severe contraction, including food shortages.
To the extent it is aimed at external audiences, it is an attempt to “shape the information space, to promote the narratives that the US and South Korea are the ones escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula.”
What is visible is a concerted effort by the Kim regime to demonstrate it has a credible nuclear deterrent, one that can survive an attack and retaliate, and flaunt its dismissal of denuclearization. “That is what I am seeing,” the senior Korea-based US official told me.

Rather than the anonymous commentators, he gives far greater importance to the statements attributed to Kim himself in a March 28 official report on his visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute and the Missile General Bureau, where he was photographed inspecting rows of purported tactical nuclear warheads that could be interchangeably used on different missile systems.
Kim reportedly examined a plan and written orders for a drill simulating “a nuclear counterattack.” In the official account, he pronounced that North Korea’s “powerful deterrence” was not aimed at “any state and specific group but [at] war and nuclear disaster themselves,” avoiding any language that targeted the US or South Korea. “This is not posturing for confrontation,” the official concludes.

Deterrence is part of the purpose, agrees David Albright, a former nuclear inspector who heads the respected Institute for Science and International Security.
But the credibility of that goal is undermined, Albright explained, by North Korea’s actions – “calls for exponential growth in its nuclear arsenal, expansion of fissile material production, production of powerful nuclear weapons, interchangeable nuclear warheads and underwater drones tipped with nuclear weapons. It looks like North Korea is producing a nuclear arsenal that envisions – albeit it is crazy – warfighting,”
In any case, according to the senior Korea-based US official quoted earlier, the North Korean tests and the development of its nuclear warhead production capability have been steady, apparently not done with the idea of influencing negotiations.

Whatever Kim Jong Un’s intent, the buildup of forces and the rise in rhetoric that suggests war is on the horizon create the danger of things spiraling out of control.
“There is no utility in conventional military confrontation,” said that US official, who closely monitors North Korea statements and active deployments. “I am more worried about an accidental incident that triggers an escalation cycle from which we can’t break free.”

Daniel Sneider is a lecturer on international policy and East Asian studies at Stanford University and a non-resident distinguished fellow at the Korea Economic Institute. Follow him on Twitter at @DCSneider
This article was originally published by The Oriental Economist. It is republished with permission.

All quiet for now on South Korea’s northern front

​

 
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