ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

jward

passin' thru
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk

Trying to keep track of what everyone calls North Korea's different solid-propellant short-range ballistic missiles. Corrections welcome.
The fact that the "New type SRBM C"is a different missile than the "Hwasong-11C" is annoying.

Nathaniel Downes@downix
Replying to @ArmsControlWonk
Looks right to me, although I compare the KN-23 against HIMARS more than Iskander due to the performance and deployment profile. To me, it appears to be utilized in larger salvos than Iskander.
1680972581127.png
 

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Military News
@IndoPac_Info
3m

1) Blinken to visit #Vietnam next week, as part of Washington's efforts to move relations to a higher level.
The US is courting Vietnam and hopes to upgrade the relationship from a comprehensive partnership to a strategic one.
2) Vietnamese media says that the US is expected to soon announce the transfer of a third US Coast Guard cutter to Vietnam.
The US will also consider providing new aid to Vietnam to conduct more dioxin (agent orange) detoxification efforts.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1644898449568202752?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru

S. Korea to hold necessary discussions with U.S. after CIA eavesdropping report | Yonhap News Agency​


유지호​




SEOUL, April 9 (Yonhap) -- The presidential office said Sunday it will hold necessary discussions with the United States following a U.S. report accusing the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of intercepting South Korean government communications regarding aid to Ukraine in war with Russia.
In a report published Saturday in the U.S. (local time), the New York Times said some parts of the CIA documents, posted on a social media chat platform Discord, detailed South Korea's "internal debates about whether to give the U.S. artillery shells for use in Ukraine, violating Seoul's policy on providing lethal aid."

In this AFP photo, a Ukrainian Special Forces Serviceman fires a weapon during a training exercise in the Donetsk region on April 6, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Yonhap)
The newspaper noted South Korean officials were concerned that U.S. President Joe Biden would pressure President Yoon Suk Yeol to come through and that the U.S. learned about South Korean deliberations through "a signals intelligence report." It's a term used by spy agencies to describe intercepted communications, from phone calls to electronic messages, according to the New York Times.
In a press briefing Sunday, a presidential official said, "We will review precedents and instances involving other countries, and come up with our response accordingly."
The official said South Korea has not yet decided on whether to supply Ukraine with weaponry.
"There is no change to our government's basic stance on Ukraine," the official said, referring to South Korea's stated focus on providing humanitarian aid, rather than lethal weapons.
(END)S. Korea to hold necessary discussions with U.S. after CIA eavesdropping report | Yonhap News Agency
 

jward

passin' thru
Gawd. Grow a pair n say whatcha got to say, this nonsense o' ignorin' is right out o' a mean (gradeschool) gurls play book.


OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
6m

South Korea has still been unable to Establish Contact with North Korean Officials through Diplomatic and Military Lines of Communication for the 4th Day; these Calls usually happen everyday at 5am and 9pm, but North Korea has not picked up the Phone since Thursday Night.
The South Korean Government previously believed that this may have been due to “Technical Issues” on the Side of the North Koreans, however this now appears to be unlikely.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

China's Race to Dominate the Military and Emerging Technologies​

by Lawrence A. Franklin
Gatestone Institute
April 6, 2023 at 5:00 am

  • The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) openly says it wants to establish dominance in emerging critical technologies as part of its strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, establish a new world order and replace the US-led international system established after WWII.
  • The US has only a little time left in this race. Reports indicate that deep cuts to the military made by several administrations have severely impaired its ability to catch up. Remaining talent and resources will possibly be reallocated in a new administration, if it is not too late by then. China has been supercharging its military for years while the U.S. has sat back, watched, and argued about unrelated social issues.
  • Communist China is currently preparing its people for war. America is not. The American people, who take their magical lives -- when compared to so many people in the world -- for granted, may be in for a tormenting shock.
1999.jpg
China has been supercharging its military for years and is preparing its people for war. America is not. The American people, who take their magical lives for granted, may be in for a tormenting shock. Pictured: DF-17 hypersonic missiles at a military parade in Beijing, China, on October 1, 2019. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) openly says it wants to establish dominance in emerging critical technologies as part of its strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, establish a new world order and replace the US-led international system established after WWII.

The US has only a little time left in this race. Reports indicate that deep cuts to the military made by several administrations have severely impaired its ability to catch up. Remaining talent and resources will possibly be reallocated in a new administration, if it is not too late by then. China has been supercharging its military for years while the U.S. has sat back, watched, and argued about unrelated social issues.

China also hopes to exploit the military potential of new technologies. Some, such as hypersonic advances, have the potential for developing sophisticated new weapons systems. Others, such as the science of "Big Data," can enhance military targeting while rapidly collecting, analyzing and storing immense amounts of information.

Robotics, another modern technology, has already been deployed by the US military against improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and suicide bombers in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The anti-armor Javelin missile, originally a joint venture of Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, will eventually be fired from a 7-ton robot as it surveys targets beyond the forward edge of the battle area. The Javelin has proven successful in Ukraine as a check against Russia's advantage in armored weapon systems, particularly when Russian tanks travel in columns. In future wars, robots could guide unmanned jets as well as armored vehicles.

A "directed energy weapon" (DEW) can direct the flow of atomic particles. New advances in DEW technology include high-powered microwave weaponry and chemical laser systems.

Another promising military application is the science of quantum technology (physics/chemistry). A quantum, the smallest measurable unit of light (a photon) or electricity (an electron), can become the medium of an encrypted intelligence messaging sent, say, from a command headquarters to a military front.

Quantum communications, when encrypted (quantum encryption), are impervious to decryption. China dispatched the first quantum message , from Vienna Austria to Beijing, via satellite in 2017.

Chinese Communist Party leaders have maintained a keen interest in securing for China a lead in quantum disciplines.

Chinese quantum expert Jian Wei-pan -- in large part responsible for the launch of the first quantum satellite in the summer of 2016 -- briefed CCP Politburo Members on the military advantages, should China secure a solid lead in this technology.

China is in an additional race with the US in the field of "advanced data analytics": the ability to sift through enormous amounts of information at great speeds, using artificial intelligence both to identify trends and predict events. This capability reportedly can improve the training of pilots, commercial or military.

China appears determined to master "big data analytics" by applying advanced computers to assist the People's Liberation Army in planning. Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the 19th Party Congress in 2017, personally endorsed the integration of "big data" into the Chinese economy. The CCP stated at the time:

"By 2030, our country will reach a world leading level in artificial intelligence theory, technology and application and become a principal world center for artificial intelligence innovation."

Intelligence collection tracking systems have been improved. For instance, new drone technology easily exposed a training exercise that featured U.S. Special Forces personnel attempting to infiltrate a hypothetical enemy area of operations.

The "Swarming Drone Pack" -- whereby one drone can transmit data simultaneously to the entire swarm -- can, in addition, both help or complicate US/NATO Special Forces operators' missions.

Advances in quantum sensing enable discernment of nuclear ordinance or radioactive materials embedded below the earth's surface -- such as in monitoring a nation's non-declared atomic storage, or attempts by adversaries to shield nuclear weapons programs.

The Free World's "tech war" against the CCP and the race to dominate artificial intelligence is also a contest in which the victor will dominate the global dissemination of information. The winner will establish future international rules and standards, especially for digital technologies. Xi threw down the gauntlet in a 2020 speech in which he announced the plan for establishment of a "Digital Silk Road" – asserting that control of information as a critical part of total control over a "new world order."

China has so far aggressively been leading in the extraction of rare earth materials necessary for vital weapons systems. China dominates the extraction of neodymium necessary for Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and samarium needed for nuclear reactors.

Communist China is currently preparing its people for war. America is not. The American people, who take their magical lives -- when compared to so many people in the world -- for granted, may be in for a tormenting shock.

Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.

 

jward

passin' thru
NK NEWS
@nknewsorg

BREAKING: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un discussed "frontline" attack plans and strengthening nuclear weapons development as he pointed to areas of South Korea on a map at a military meeting on Monday, according to state media. More @nknewsorg soon

NEW: Kim Jong Un discussed “frontline attack operation plans” and “expanding more practically and offensively our war deterrent" at a Central Military Commission meeting held Monday
 

jward

passin' thru
Readout of U.S.-Philippines 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue

Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder provided the following readout:

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III co-chaired the third U.S.-Philippines 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue alongside Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of National Defense Carlito Galvez, and Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo today in Washington, D.C. The four leaders forged new and deeper cooperation across all areas of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, as the two countries strive toward a shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region and rules-based international order.

The Secretaries reaffirmed their unwavering alliance commitments under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty to defend against external armed attack in the Pacific including the South China Sea. They reiterated that they consider their respective Coast Guards to be components of their armed forces. The Secretaries committed to expeditiously conclude the U.S.-Philippines Bilateral Defense Guidelines, which charts our vision for alliance cooperation across all operational domains, including space and cyberspace.

As the United States and the Philippines make critical strides to deepen alliance interoperability, Secretary Austin and Secretary Galvez discussed plans to swiftly operationalize the four new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites at Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, Cagayan; Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela; Balabac Island in Palawan; and Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan. In addition to the five existing EDCA locations, these new sites will support combined training, exercises, and other operational activities between the U.S. and Philippine Armed Forces to allow both countries to rapidly respond to a range of shared challenges — including natural disasters — in the Philippines and across the Indo-Pacific region.

Secretary Austin and Secretary Galvez, who will meet again tomorrow to discuss core defense initiatives in greater detail, noted recent concerning operational behavior and gray-zone activities in the South China Sea and committed to regularize combined maritime activities in the South China Sea. The two leaders discussed opportunities to conduct a joint U.S.-Philippines sail in the South China Sea during Exercise BALIKATAN, which commenced on April 11 and is the largest and most complex iteration of the exercise to date, featuring more than 17,000 participating troops. Secretary Austin reaffirmed the Department’s commitment to bolstering the Philippines’ defense capabilities and capacity to resist coercion as the allies develop a Security Sector Assistance Roadmap.

The leaders discussed ways to coordinate more closely with like-minded nations — including Australia and Japan — to strengthen shared principles of the rule of law, freedom of the seas, and respect for territorial sovereignty today and far into the future. Today’s 2+2 Ministerial reaffirmed the United States and the Philippines’ enduring commitment to stand shoulder-to-shoulder as allies to bring greater security, prosperity, and stability to the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
 

jward

passin' thru

N. Korea vows to initiate vibrant space projects amid worries over potential spy satellite launch | Yonhap News Agency​


김수연​


SEOUL, April 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korea vowed Wednesday to pursue more space development projects on the occasion of the International Day of Human Space Flight, according to state media, amid concerns over its potential launch of a military spy satellite this month.
North Korea has an "unwavering" willingness to turn itself into a global space powerhouse as outer space belongs to all mankind, not something monopolized or possessed by a specific country, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
The International Day of Human Space Flight is annually celebrated April 12 to mark the first human space flight by Yuri Gagarin, a Soviet citizen.
The North said the country's space development projects are "vibrantly" making progress in line with the spirit of the Outer Space Treaty, which stipulates that a sovereign state has the right to peacefully use outer space, the KCNA said.
The report came as North Korea earlier said it will complete preparations for putting its first military reconnaissance satellite into orbit by April.

In December last year, the secretive regime released black-and-white photos of Seoul and a port in Incheon, 27 kilometers west of the capital, which it said were shot from its "test-piece satellite."
Earlier this month, the North highlighted the 10th founding anniversary of the National Aerospace Development Administration, the state agency in charge of developing satellites.
These photos, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Dec. 19, 2022, show Seoul (R) and its adjacent city of Incheon that the country claimed were taken from a test-piece satellite that it fired the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

These photos, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Dec. 19, 2022, show Seoul (R) and its adjacent city of Incheon that the country claimed were taken from a "test-piece satellite" that it fired the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
 

jward

passin' thru





Ankit Panda
@nktpnd
3h

Probably an assessment concerning the solid-fuel, canisterized ICBM.
View: https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1645883991226974210?s=20





Full story here; also on Hwasong-17 TELs and production constraints/bottlenecks.


North Korea parade 'probably oversells' ICBM threat -leaked document​


April 11, 2023
12:16 PM CDT
Last Updated 6 hours ago



WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence analysts believe a recent military parade in North Korea "probably oversells" the threat its inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) pose to the United States, according to a leaked document purportedly from the U.S. government.

Reuters has reviewed more than 50 of the documents, labeled "Secret" and "Top Secret", that first appeared on social media sites in March and supposedly reveal details of military capabilities of some US allies and adversaries.
Reuters has not independently verified the documents' authenticity.

While the Pentagon has not vouched for the authenticity of each of the documents, it said on Monday there appeared to have been an "unauthorized disclosure of classified material." It said that photos appear to show documents similar in format to those used to provide daily updates to senior leaders, though some appear altered.
A brief, one-paragraph observation in one of the documents marked "Secret" and seen by Reuters noted that North Korea had paraded an unprecedented number of ICBM-class launchers at an event on Feb. 8 that were "most likely carrying nonoperational systems."

The Pentagon and North Korea's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the North Korea part of the documents.

The document said the North Korean aim was "probably to portray a maturing nuclear threat to the U.S."
"The North paraded these nonoperational systems to portray a larger, more capable missile force than it possesses and to mitigate the risk of damage to its real missiles," the document said.
North Korea continues to develop its ballistic missile program, test-launching dozens of advanced missiles last year despite United Nations Security Council resolutions and U.S.-led sanctions. It has continued the testing this year.
The document added that during the next year, "North Korea will probably be unable to outfit all of the paraded ICBM-class TELs with operational missiles capable of striking all of the US because of testing hurdles and resource constraints."
TEL is an abbreviation for transporter erector launcher, a mobile missile-launch vehicle.

Imagery published by North Korean state media of the Feb. 8 event showed more purported ICBMs than Pyongyang has displayed before and hinted at a new solid-fuel weapon.
The images showed as many as 11 Hwasong-17s, North Korea's largest ICBM, which is suspected to be capable of striking nearly anywhere in the world with a nuclear warhead.
The Hwasong-17 was first tested last year. Alongside them at the parade were what some analysts said could be a prototype or mockup of a new solid-fuel ICBM in canister launchers. North Korea has sometimes displayed mockups in its parades.

Developing a solid-fuel ICBM has long been seen as a key goal for the country, as it could make its nuclear missiles harder to spot and destroy during a conflict.
Reporting by Idress Ali and David Brunnstrom; additional reporting by Michelle Nichols at the United Nations Editing by Don Durfee and Alistair Bell
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
 

Pinecone

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Is this the equivalent of lil Kim holding his breath until he turns blue because he's not getting enough attention?
 

jward

passin' thru

Seoul accuses critics of using ‘forged’ US reports as anti-alliance ‘propaganda’ | NK News​


Jeongmin​


Presidential office says claims of wiretapping based on leaked documents shake alliance as North Korean threats grow

Yoon Suk-yeol and Joe Biden at the Osan Air Base in May 2022 | Image: ROK Presidential Office
Leaked U.S. documents that appeared to show Washington wiretapped the South Korean government were “forged,” Seoul’s presidential office said Tuesday, criticizing the opposition party for using the leak as anti-U.S. “propaganda” despite growing North Korean threats.

The Yoon administration made the claim in a statement outlining its “official” position on the leaked U.S. intelligence documents first reported by The New York Times earlier this week. According to the reports, the leaks cite signal intelligence when detailing internal debates in the ROK government about providing arms to Ukraine.

Recent Stories​


 

jward

passin' thru
Yoon gives credentials to new ambassador to U.S. | Yonhap News Agency
이해아



SEOUL, April 12 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday gave a letter of credence to new South Korean Ambassador to the United States Cho Hyun-dong.

The letter was presented during a ceremony at the presidential office.

Cho, a career diplomat and former first vice foreign minister, will replace Cho Tae-yong, who was recently appointed national security adviser.

 

jward

passin' thru
US very 'confident' it can protect interests in South China Sea as China surrounds Taiwan
Anders Hagstrom



The U.S. is very confident it can protect American interests in the Indo-Pacific as the Chinese military surrounds Taiwan, the White House said Thursday.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby offered the assessment to reporters during a Monday briefing. China is conducting extensive and ongoing military drills around the self-governed island throughout the past week, going so far as to simulate strikes on the island this past weekend.

"How does the U.S. see these latest Chinese military exercises and is the U.S. confident that Taiwan and help from the U.S. could continue to deter China from a military solution?" a reporter asked. "Their saber-rattling as we call it was a lot more than sabers, and it's more than rattling."

"We're monitoring the exercises closely, as you might imagine," Kirby responded, adding that they were a needless reaction to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's recent visit to the U.S. that sparked angry warnings from China.

CONFLICT WITH CHINA 'LAST RESORT' BUT CONGRESS WILL AUTHORIZE TROOPS IF AMERICANS SUPPORT IT: MCCAUL
The U.S. says it is very confident that it can protect its interests in the Indo-Pacific region, even as China ramps up aggression and surrounds Taiwan.

The U.S. says it is very confident that it can protect its interests in the Indo-Pacific region, even as China ramps up aggression and surrounds Taiwan. (Catherine Lai / AFP via Getty Images / File)
Taiwan's military is on high alert as Chinese forces have surrounded the self-governed island in retaliation to President Tsai Ing-wen's recent visit to the U.S.

Taiwan's military is on high alert as Chinese forces have surrounded the self-governed island in retaliation to President Tsai Ing-wen's recent visit to the U.S. (Ceng Shou Yi / NurPhoto via Getty Images / File)

CHINA RETALIATES AGAINST TAIWANESE PRESIDENT TSAI'S US VISIT BY SANCTIONING REAGAN LIBRARY, THINK TANK

"We're very comfortable and confident that we have in place, in the region, sufficient resources and capabilities to protect our national security interests in the Indo-Pacific," he continued. "I would add … there's no reason for tensions across the Taiwan Strait to devolve into any kind of conflict."

In total, the Chinese military deployed 71 aircraft and nine naval vessels around Taiwan as of Sunday.

The move comes in reaction to Tsai's trip to the U.S. and her meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last week. The trip was Tsai's seventh transit of the U.S., and the second time she had met with a U.S. House speaker. Nevertheless, China made threats and warnings ahead of the visit.

Kirby emphasized that China was overreacting to the incident and highlighted Tsai's past trips to the U.S. and meetings with U.S. lawmakers.
 

jward

passin' thru

Marcos is bringing in more friends to help deter China​

New multilateral security groupings link Philippines with Japan, Australia, U.S.
Richard Heydarian
April 10, 2023 17:00 JST

Philippine and U.S. troops at the opening ceremony of the Salaknib exercises on March 13: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has doubled down on defense cooperation with Washington. © Reuters
Richard Heydarian is a senior lecturer at the Asian Center of the University of the Philippines and author of "The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China and the New Struggle for Global Mastery."
When U.S. President Joe Biden and his counterparts from the U.K. and Australia announced details of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal last month, only one Southeast Asian country expressed categorical support.
While regional heavyweights such as Indonesia and Malaysia openly criticized the deal and Singapore and Vietnam remained largely mum, the Philippine government, in stark contrast, backed the deal as "essential to our national development and to the security of the region."

The Southeast Asia nation's exceptional response should not come as a major surprise. To begin with, the Philippines has a treaty alliance with Washington as well as a visiting forces agreement pact with Australia.
Moreover, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has doubled down on defense cooperation with the U.S., giving Washington new access to Philippine military bases, reviving security dialogues and joining new multilateral discussions that also include Japan and Australia.
This shift has been largely driven by fears over China's expanding footprint in waters adjacent to the Philippines, but Marcos must balance greater security engagement with the U.S. and its allies with the risk of further inflaming relations with Beijing.

The rise of new power groupings in the Indo-Pacific region reflects growing frustration with existing multilateral platforms. After more than 20 years of negotiations, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is still struggling with China over negotiations for a legally binding code of conduct to cover the disputed waters.
The situation is no better at the U.N., where China holds veto power as a permanent member of the Security Council. Unsurprisingly, Beijing has unabashedly defied Manila's award victory at The Hague under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea over China's incursions into maritime areas claimed by the Philippines.

Bilateral engagement with China has failed to produce any breakthrough. Six years of strategic subservience under Rodrigo Duterte, Marcos' predecessor, failed to improve the situation on the ground. Nor did Marcos' own diplomatic outreach to China, highlighted with a state visit to Beijing in January, culminate in any tangible outcome.
Marcos' decision to expand cooperation with the U.S. under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement is part of a broader multilateral effort to constrain China's worst instincts.
Under the pact, the U.S. is set to gain access to and preposition weapons systems in strategically located facilities in the northern Philippine provinces of Isabela and Cagayan, close to Taiwan, as well as on the island of Palawan, near the South China Sea's Spratly Islands.

Two-plus-two meetings this week between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and their Philippine counterparts -- the first such dialogue in seven years -- will focus on upgrading the nations' alliance vis-a-vis China.
A stronger bilateral alliance in turn is serving as a foundation for wider cooperation in new, informal "minilateral" groupings, especially the emerging JAPHUS trilateral formation with Japan.
Both the Philippines and Japan are U.S. treaty allies and have naval facilities close to Taiwan. Military interoperability and tighter strategic coordination among the JAPHUS allies will be crucial to deterring China's revanchist ambitions. Upon Tokyo's request, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to meet with his Japanese and Philippine counterparts later this month to iron out expanded military cooperation.

Political momentum undergirds the new power grouping. Authoritative surveys show that a majority of Filipinos support tighter security cooperation with both Japan and the U.S. to check China's expansion in the South China Sea.
Crucially, the Philippine Senate, which would have to ratify any major defense treaty, is supportive of enhanced security links. Senate President Miguel Zubiri has publicly backed the notion of a reciprocal base access agreement with Japan, as well as a visiting forces agreement, as "a major boost to our defense systems and practices." For its part, Japan has just launched a new security aid program to help like-minded neighbors including the Philippines.


Meanwhile, Manila is also pushing for quadrilateral security cooperation such as joint patrols in the South China Sea that would include Australia. The four countries will conduct their largest-ever joint exercises this month, with as many as 17,000 troops expected to attend the Philippines' annual Balikatan drills, this time being held close to the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
Last year, the Philippines conducted quadrilateral drills involving Japan, South Korea and the U.S. as part of the Kamandag exercises, with some held near the South China Sea.
Marcos should continue to ably leverage new geopolitical alignments to boost his country's deterrence capabilities as well as to expedite the modernization of the Philippine military through the acquisition of advanced armaments and warfare training.

But at the same time, Manila has to avoid excessively antagonizing China, a top trading partner.
Unsurprisingly, Beijing is already perturbed by the Philippines' strategic redirection. So Marcos must prepare for potential retribution by working with allies to protect critical infrastructure and democratic institutions from external sabotage. He should also steadily expand trade and investment relations with the West and Japan to mitigate against potential informal Chinese sanctions.
In fairness, there are indications that Manila is still hedging its bets, refusing to fully align with the West against China yet.

To stanch Beijing's fears, the Marcos administration relocated some major war games with the U.S. away from Taiwan. Manila also has yet to give Washington access to a number of its most prized northern military bases, particularly those on the islands of Fuga and Mavulis, around 100 nautical miles from Taiwan.
Over the coming years, the Marcos administration will have to constantly balance deterrence in tandem with allies and engagement with China to protect the Philippines' national interests.
 

jward

passin' thru

Iran in secret talks with China, Russia to acquire sanctioned missile fuel​


Matthew Karnitschnig



China and Russia are in advanced secret talks with Iran to replenish the Islamic Republic’s supply of a key chemical compound used to propel ballistic missiles, diplomats familiar with the matter say, a move that would mark a clear violation of United Nations sanctions and possibly help Moscow replenish its depleted stock of rockets.
Tehran has held concurrent negotiations with officials and government-controlled entities from both countries, including the state-owned Russian chemical maker FKP Anozit, to acquire large amounts of ammonium perchlorate, or AP, the main ingredient in solid propellants used to power missiles, said the diplomats, who requested anonymity in order to discuss confidential information.

In Beijing, Iranian diplomat Sajjad Ahadzadeh, who serves as Tehran’s “technology counselor” in China and the broader region has led the talks to acquire AP, according to the diplomats familiar with the matter. The diplomats said they didn’t know which Chinese companies were involved, however.
The exact quantity of AP Iran is seeking to purchase isn’t clear, but the diplomats familiar with its plans estimate it would be sufficient to build thousands of rockets, including the Zolfaghar missile, which has a range of 700 kilometers and has been used by both Iran and its proxies in the Middle East in recent years. If the deal goes through, some of those rockets could end up being deployed against Ukraine, the diplomats said.


Iran has supplied Russia with so-called kamikaze drones that it has used to attack Ukrainian civilian targets and has also advised Moscow on how to circumvent the international sanctions it faces as a result of its actions.
Representatives for China, Russia and Iran did not respond to requests for comment. Iran’s foreign ministry referred questions regarding Ahadzadeh to the Iranian embassy in Germany, which did not respond. The Iranian embassy in China also did not respond to questions about the diplomat’s activities or make him available for an interview.

The person who answered the phone at FKP Anozit asked for questions to be sent by email. The email bounced. The same person hung up when POLITICO called back seeking to put questions to the company. FKP Anozit does not appear to have a substantial presence as a business, even though the abbreviation FKP in its name means “Federal State Company” in Russian. Its homepage refers inquiries to an industrial marketplace called Techmika.
A search of Google Maps for its head office address in the remote Siberian town of Kuybyshev produced a Street View image of a redbrick house on a muddy street on which there was also a shoe shop, a driving school, and a car parts outlet. On the other side of the road stood an unfinished commercial building.

Fueling the war​

The talks about procuring AP follow a warming of relations between Iran, Russia and China — which see themselves as a bulwark against U.S. influence — in the wake of Moscow’s all-out war against Ukraine.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, who visited Moscow last month, has stopped short of openly endorsing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine but has left little doubt that Beijing’s allegiances ultimately rest with Russia. China, which recently presented a peace plan that critics say would force Ukraine to cede territory occupied by Russia, wants to make sure the Kremlin doesn’t lose the war, amid fears that could trigger the collapse of its neighbor and wider destabilization.

Both the U.S. and Europe have repeatedly cautioned Beijing against offering Russia military support, though it’s far from clear what consequences, if any, there would be if China were to ignore those warnings.
While China has supplied Russia with some military gear in recent months, the support has so far been modest, in part, analysts say, because Beijing is wary of angering its most important trading partners, the U.S. and Europe.
GettyImages-1439166424-1024x647.jpg
F-35 fighter jets and four U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter jets | South Korean Defense Ministry via Getty Images
Helping Russia via Iran by supplying the latter with AP, the diplomats familiar with the matter say, is one way China could offer Moscow substantial support behind the scenes. That China may be considering flouting U.N. sanctions it signed off on to help Russia’s war effort betrays deep concern in Beijing over its ally’s prospects, Western analysts said.
Under U.N. resolution 2231, passed in 2015, countries are prohibited from supplying Iran with AP without approval from the U.N. Security Council.

Ammonium perchlorate is a key component in solid-rocket fuel, which is often used for military use due to its reliability and long shelf life. Most of Iran’s precision-strike and short-range ballistic missiles rely on solid-fuel propellant motors. The country is also using the fuel to develop longer-range missiles under the guise of its space programs, analysts say.
“Iran is deepening its reliance on solid-propellant ballistic missiles in its security strategy,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the author of a recent comprehensive study on Iran’s missile program. “Therefore, the ingredients which go into solid-rocket fuel — like AP as an oxidizer — will only grow in importance for the regime.”
The suspected volume of the Russian and Chinese shipments “speaks to the imperative of possessing this material” for Iran, Ben Taleblu added.
Russia’s relentless attacks on Ukrainian targets over the past year have exhausted its supply of rockets. Though Russia produces its own missiles, its capacity to produce them lags the military’s appetite to fire them off. That’s why Iranian support, as with drones, could present an attractive alternative.

Like Russia, Iran is largely self-sufficient when it comes to producing missiles, but the international sanctions it faces in connection with its surreptitious nuclear weapons program have also limited its production capacity.
Iran is also keen to increase its own supply of ballistic missiles as it seeks to flex its muscles in the Middle East, analysts said. In 2020, Iran fired a dozen ballistic missiles at U.S. forces stationed at Ayn al-Asad Airbase in Iraq in retaliation for the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s paramilitary Quds force. The strike, which injured more than 100 U.S. servicemen, marked the largest such attack against American forces.
In November, the U.S. Navy discovered about 70 tons of AP, enough to fuel about a dozen medium-range rockets, on a ship in the Gulf of Oman en route from Iran to Yemen. U.S. officials believed the payload was intended for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, and the Navy sank the ship.
Douglas Busvine contributed reporting for this article.
Iran in secret talks with China, Russia to acquire sanctioned missile fuel
 

jward

passin' thru

Australia hails breakthrough in trade disputes with China - Insider Paper​


AFP​



Australia said Tuesday it was inching closer to “stabilising” its fraught relationship with China, as the two countries moved to solve a festering trade dispute over barley exports.
The once-cosy trading relationship has soured in recent years as Australia sought closer military ties with the United States and China vied for influence in the Pacific.

Beijing slapped hefty tariffs on key commodities such as barley, beef and wine in 2020 at the height of a bitter dispute inflamed by Australia’s former conservative government.
Australia retaliated by complaining to the World Trade Organization, alleging China had breached international obligations by artificially jacking up tariffs “without justification”.
But the country’s centre-left government has adopted a far less confrontational stance since its election in May last year, prioritising the resumption of trade.

In the latest sign of thawing tensions between the countries, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Australia would be temporarily suspending its complaint after China had agreed to review its barley tariffs.
“We have made it clear that we believe there’s no justification for the measures that China introduced in relation to barley,” she told reporters.
“We have also made clear that we believe it is in both countries’ interests for these trade impediments to be removed.”
Wong, who visited Beijing in December, said this demonstrated Australia was slowly “stabilising the relationship with China”.

The tariffs, as well as an unofficial ban on Australian coal, are estimated to have cost more than Aus$5 billion (US$3.47 billion) in lost revenue from China.
Meanwhile, Beijing has confirmed that Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu will travel to Australia later this week, making him one of the most senior officials to visit in years.
Australia faces a difficult balancing act — China is its largest trading partner, but the United States is a crucial military ally.

Canberra angered Beijing in March by announcing it would purchase nuclear-powered submarines from the United States as part of an ambitious plan to bulk up Western muscle in the Asia-Pacific.
Australia hails breakthrough in trade disputes with China - Insider Paper
 

jward

passin' thru
Global: Military-Info
@Global_Mil_Info
6m

Seems like South Korea confirmed that the North Korean missile splashed in the Sea of Japan.
Might be a "FINAL" test before they conduct their satellite launch. It is convenient that this test was conducted before April 15th - "The Day of the Sun."


Global: Military-Info
@Global_Mil_Info

I am still not ruling out that North Korea could conduct their "long-range" test into the Pacific Ocean and seventh nuclear test soon or sometime this year.
There seems to be a lot of rhetoric that might be leading to something.
There is always a chance of "tactical" provocations too, especially since NK cut communications with SK again.
8:22 PM · Apr 12, 2023

Lastly, North Korea has been developing solid-fueled ICBMs, so this could have been its first operational test which would fit the "new-type" proclaimed by Japanese officials.

1,335
Views
 

jward

passin' thru

China, or the problem with F-22 fighter jets leaving Okinawa but arriving in Poland​


Tom Rogan


While the United States faces many national security challenges, it has limited military resources. It's disingenuous to claim that resolving this imbalance can be accomplished with defense budget boosts that have no chance of becoming law. At the pinnacle of security statecraft, the maximal countering of China's threats to Taiwan cannot coexist with a maximal countering of Russian threats to Eastern Europe. This doesn't mean abandoning America's best NATO allies, nor should it ever. Still, tough choices must be made on where to deploy finite military capabilities.

We just gained a key reminder of this necessity with regards to two different deployments of U.S. Air Force F-22 fighter jets. The F-22 is the world's finest air superiority fighter: stealthy, maneuverable, and heavily armed.

MR. MACRON, THE MODERN TALLEYRAND, GOES TO BEIJING

Last week, F-22 fighter jets from the Virginia-based 94th Fighter Squadron began arriving at Powidz air base in central-western Poland. That squadron is replacing an Air Force F-15E fighter squadron normally based out of England. Their mission is important: defending NATO's eastern flank, especially the vulnerable Baltic States that border Russia. NATO says that the F-22s will also operate over the Black Sea. Hopefully, that means they'll be used to escort reconnaissance flights over the Black Sea. It was only last month that Russia downed a U.S. drone that was flying in international airspace over those waters.

Still, this F-22 deployment is only one side of the rotation of forces coin. Also last week, F-22s from the Alaska-based 525th fighter squadron returned home after a deployment to Okinawa. Those F-22s have now been replaced in Okinawa by an F-15E fighter jet squadron based out of North Carolina.

Why the replacement of F-22s with F-15s and vice versa?

Because the Air Force only has about 110-140 F-22s operationally ready at any one time. It can't keep F-22s forward deployed everywhere, all the time. Yet, by sending F-22s out of the Pacific and into Europe, the Pentagon weakens its already vulnerable posture in the Pacific. And it's not the first time this has happened. Another F-22 squadron assigned to the Pacific air forces was sent to Poland last July.

The problem is that F-22s would be critical to any successful U.S. campaign to defend Taiwan against China. The People's Liberation Army would have major numerical, geographic, and force disposition advantages in any war with the U.S. over Taiwan (though recent developments with the Philippines offer a ray of hope). And while the U.S. still has F-35 stealth fighter jets based out of Okinawa, those aircraft — contrary to the arguments of some — lack the range and weapons payloads needed for the Taiwan fight (the F-15EX is a far better alternative here).

Top line: Addressing China's threat to Taiwan requires the U.S. to maximize the scaled readiness of its best warships (another issue with regards to stretched resources) and aircraft in the Pacific. U.S. nuclear weapons and Army maneuver forces should be kept on NATO's eastern flank, but NATO air forces should fill the F-22 gap. Indeed, unlike in the Pacific, the F-35, which many NATO nations now possess, is well suited to fighting Russian air and air defense forces. The F-22s, however, need either to be going to the Pacific or undergoing maintenance at their home bases. Spreading these forces thin, the U.S. undermines an already weakened means of defending Taiwan.

The U.S. cannot do everything everywhere. Pretending otherwise is to embrace arrogant strategic idiocy.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

Posted for fair use.....

3 minute read April 13, 20234:43 PM PDT Last Updated an hour ago

North Korea says tested new solid-fuel ICBM, warns of 'extreme' horror​

By Soo-Hyang Choi

SEOUL, April 14 (Reuters) - North Korea said on Friday it has tested a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-18 to "radically promote" the country's nuclear counterattack capability, state media reported, warning of "extreme uneasiness and horror" to enemies.

North Korea fired what appeared to be a new model ballistic missile on Thursday, South Korea said, triggering a scare in northern Japan where Hokkaido residents were told to take cover, though there turned out to be no danger.


"The development of the new-type ICBM Hwasongpho-18 will extensively reform the strategic deterrence components of the DPRK, radically promote the effectiveness of its nuclear counterattack posture and bring about a change in the practicality of its offensive military strategy," KCNA said, using the initials of its official name.

Analysts said it would mark the North's first use of solid propellants in an intermediate-range or intercontinental ballistic missile.

Developing a solid-fuel ICBM has long been seen as a key goal for North Korea, as it could help the North deploy its missiles faster in the event of a war.


Leader Kim Jong Un guided the test, and warned it will make enemies "experience a clearer security crisis, and constantly strike extreme uneasiness and horror into them by taking fatal and offensive counter-actions until they abandon their senseless thinking and reckless acts".

North Korea has criticised recent U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises as escalating tensions and has stepped up weapons tests in recent months.

Most of the country's largest ballistic missiles use liquid fuel, which requires them to be loaded with propellant at their launch site - a time-consuming process.

"Solids are easier and safer for troops to operate in the field, and have a much smaller logistical train that makes field-deployed solid missile units harder to detect (and thus more survivable) than liquids," Vann Van Diepen, a former U.S. government weapons expert who now works with the 38 North project, said.


"But even liquids are highly survivable when field deployed," Van Diepen said, adding it depends on how North Korea chooses to operate the systems.

North Korea displayed what could be a new solid-fuel ICBM during a military parade in February after testing a high-thrust solid-fuel engine in December.

Analysts said the U.S. would be able to determine between a solid- or liquid-fueled launch via early warning satellites capable of detecting differences in the infrared data produced by different missile types.

The latest launch came days after Kim called for strengthening war deterrence in a "more practical and offensive" manner to counter what North Korea called moves of aggression by the United States.

The missile, fired from near Pyongyang, flew about 1,000 km (620 miles) before landing in waters east of North Korea, officials said.

North Korea said the test posed no threats to its neighbouring countries.

Reporting by Soo-hyang Choi; Editing by Leslie Adler
 

jward

passin' thru
Ankit Panda
@nktpnd
12m

An odd claim by North Korea on the Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM test: "...the test fire was conducted in the way of applying the standard trajectory flying mode to its first stage and the vertical mode to the second and third stages"
Pyongyang claims this was done "...in consideration of the security of the neighboring countries and the safety of the multi-stage-separation of the missile during its flight in the territorial air."
One possibility: they had real concerns about boost-phase aerodynamic stressors (i.e., drag while in the atmosphere) causing the missile to break up if launched on a lofted trajectory from the get-go.
 

jward

passin' thru
Ankit Panda
@nktpnd

NEW: North Korea claims first successful flight-test of a new, solid-fuel ICBM, dubbed the 'Hwasong-18'. This was a major objective set forth by Kim Jong Un for 2023 at the start of this year.

One more image. Per North Korean state media, the test was meant to demonstrate a “nuclear counterattack” capability and to “make the enemies suffer from fear and anxiety.”

Looks like a towed, mobile erector mechanism. Probably sensible for an inaugural launch; don't want to lose an integrated TEL if things go wrong

One more image that eliminates ambiguity on the launch vehicle: it's the same TEL as the February parade.

Physical characteristics of missile appear to be:
- 3 stages
- larger diameter first stage (based on probably the December 2022 SRM that we saw)
- smaller upper stages, probably similar in diameter to Pukguksong-3 (or slightly larger)

Shot here of a camo-netted missile in an underground shelter likely indicative of operational intent.
View: https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1646649390730211328?s=20


see thread in it's entirety for further comment and photographic documentation.
 

jward

passin' thru
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
3h

No, it's not a surprise North Korea tested a solid-fuel ICBM. A short thread.
View: https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1646638050619826178?s=20


Solid-fuel ICBMs are, as the name suggests, are loaded with propellant in a solid form. Solid-fuel missiles are much easier to handle than missiles that must be fueled with large quantities of toxic and explosive liquid rocket fuel and oxidizer.
View: https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1646638052360572930?s=20


While one can use liquid-fuel missiles for mobile launchers like TELs and submarines, it's just easier to use solid-fuel missiles. North Korea was always going to follow the same technical path as the US, Soviet Union, France, China, Israel and India. Are the 2020 Tokyo Olympics in Trouble?
View: https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1646638054176616448?s=20


Kim Jong Un announced the goal in 2021 and conducted a static or ground test of the motor this year.
View: https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1646638055808278528?s=20


The US developed large solid-fuel motors occurred in the late 1950s. The problems faced were combustion instabilities and implementing case-bonded propellants to improve performance. The technical barrier was around 0.8 m in diameter.
View: https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1646638057255231488?s=20


For Thiokol in the United States, the key shift appears to have come between the 0.787 m Hermes and Sargeant rocket motors and the larger Big B motors. The technology developed in these programs led to the first flight test of the Minuteman ICBM in February 1961.
1681436730802.png


Given that North Korea has been testing large diameter solid rocket motors for the Pukguksong-series for several years, it's been clear (to me at least) that since 2020 a test like this could have come at any time.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

1000.webp


N. Korea says it tested new solid-fuel long-range missile​

By KIM TONG-HYUNG and HYUNG-JIN KIM 19 minutes ago

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea said Friday it has successfully test-launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile powered by solid propellants, a development that if confirmed could provide the country with a harder-to-detect weapon targeting the continental United States.

North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency issued the report a day after the country’s neighbors detected a launch of a long-range missile from near Pyongyang, which extended a run of weapons displays involving more than 100 missiles fired into sea since the start of 2022.

KCNA said the launch was supervised on site by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who described the missile — named Hwasong-18 — as the most powerful weapon of his nuclear forces that would enhance its counterattack abilities in the face of external threats created by the military activities of the United States and its regional allies.

Kim pledged to further expand his nuclear arsenal to “constantly strike extreme uneasiness and horror” in his rivals and make them feel regret for their wrong choices.

North Korea has justified its weapons demonstrations as a response to the expanding military exercises between the United States and South Korea, which the North condemns as invasion rehearsals while using them as a pretext to push further its own weapons development.

Kim added that the Hwasong-18 would rapidly advance North Korea’s nuclear response posture and further support an aggressive military strategy that vows to maintain “frontal confrontation” against its rivals.

North Korea has tested various intercontinental missiles since 2017 that demonstrated the potential range to reach the U.S. mainland, but the others use liquid fuel that must be added relatively close to the launch and they cannot remain fueled for prolonged periods.

An ICBM with built-in solid propellants would be easier to move and hide and could be fired faster, reducing the opportunities for opponents to detect and counter the launch. It’s not immediately clear how close the North is to having a functional solid-fuel ICBM capable of striking the U.S. mainland.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry maintains North Korea’s technological advancements haven’t reached the point where it can protect its ICMB warheads from the harsh conditions of atmospheric reentry. Last month, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-Sup also told lawmakers that North Korea likely hasn’t yet mastered the technology to place nuclear warheads on its most advanced short-range missiles targeting South Korea, though he acknowledged the country was making considerable progress on it.

“This is a significant breakthrough for the North Koreans, but not an unexpected one,” said Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“The primary significance of solid-fuel ICBMs is in terms of what they’ll do for the survivability of North Korea’s overall ICBM force,” he said.

“Because these missiles are fueled at the time of manufacture and are thus ready to use as needed, they will be much more rapidly useable in a crisis or conflict, depriving South Korea and the United States of valuable time that could be useful to preemptively hunt and destroy such missiles.”

North Korean state media published photos of the missile blasting off from a launch vehicle at a test site inside a forest as Kim watched from an observation post along with military officials and his daughter.

KCNA described the Hwasong-18 as a three-stage missile with the first stage tested at a standard ballistic trajectory and the others programmed to fly at higher angles after separation to avoid North Korea’s neighbors. It wasn’t immediately clear how the third stage was tested, where the warhead would theoretically be placed.

The agency said the test didn’t threaten the security of other countries as the first and second stages fell into waters off the country’s eastern coast. It provided no details about what happened to the third stage, although the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper published an aerial photo of an object it described as the third stage following separation.

Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said North Korea for the test likely designed the third stage as an empty device and simply let it fall after separation.

He noted that North Korea didn’t release details about how high the missile went, which suggests it wasn’t tested at the weapon’s full capacity and range, and said the North likely will test the system several more times.

Soo Kim, an expert with Virginia-based consultancy LMI and a former CIA analyst, said each successive test by North Korea “seems to demonstrate greater options for the regime to provoke and threaten the region.”

“With the Day of the Sun festivities coming up, and a U.S.-South Korean summit around the corner, the timing is also ripe for a North Korean provocation for (Kim Jong Un) to yet again remind us that his weapons are getting bigger, better, and all the more challenging for the U.S., South Korea, and the international community to deal with,” she said.

She was referring to the birth anniversary of Kim’s state-founding grandfather, Kim Il Sung, which falls on Saturday, and a planned summit in Washington this month between President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Solid-fuel ICBMs highlighted an extensive wish list Kim announced under a five-year arms development plan in 2021, which also included tactical nuclear weapons, hypersonic missiles, nuclear-powered submarines and spy satellites.

The North has fired around 30 missiles this year alone over 12 different launch events as both the pace of its weapons development and the U.S.-South Korean military exercises increase in a cycle of tit-for-tat. The U.S. and South Korean militaries conducted their biggest field exercises in years last month and separately held joint naval and air force drills involving a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group and nuclear-capable U.S. bombers.

North Korea claimed the drills simulated an all-out war against North Korea and communicated threats against it. The United States and South Korea have said their exercises are defensive in nature and expanding them was necessary to cope with the North’s evolving threats.

___

Find more of AP’s Asia-Pacific coverage at Asia Pacific | AP News
 
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