Solar The Grand Solar Minimum (ORIGINAL)

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TxGal

Day by day
The Oppenheimer Ranch Project has a new podcast out:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUB4QHZCcVU


Record Snow Fall Across The Country..Not one Peep From The Main Stream - Dark Matter Is Dead, Period

Run time is 8:49

130,000 Lose Power In Massachusetts Severe Storms Down Trees https://cbsloc.al/2VvAYvy
Iowa cities set Easter snowfall records, several with more than 6 inches https://bit.ly/3ckIMXA
A record Easter snowfall for Eau Claire https://bit.ly/2K7ak72
Record cold for Denver... Record snow for Boulder https://bit.ly/34GyK0C
Boulder Hits 134.3 Inches Of Snow For Season, Less Than 9 Inches From Snowiest Ever https://cbsloc.al/2RER7gT
Colorado Springs sets record low temperature ahead of more snow https://bit.ly/2ybvPkd
Rochester’s Record Snow Has Been Replaced By Record Cold Weather https://bit.ly/2Vto0OS
Power Outage US https://poweroutage.us/
As Cold and Rain Dominates, Planters Sit on the Sidelines This Week https://bit.ly/34CzkMz
SNOWFALL ANALYSIS FROM THE LAST 24 https://www.weather.gov/crh/snowfall
Thunderstorms for Parts of the Southeast Coast; Heavy Snow for the Rockies https://www.weather.gov/
GFS Model https://bit.ly/3ckIwYU
Drop in noise pollution means a data boom for earthquake scientists https://bit.ly/2K8fdMQ
Worldwide Volcano News https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volc...
Archaeologists Solve Mystery of Ancient Decorated Ostrich Eggs http://www.sci-news.com/archaeology/m...
The origins of decorated ostrich eggs in the ancient Mediterranean and Middle East https://bit.ly/3aaM1iM
SHOCKING RESEARCH THREATENS OUR UNDERSTANDING OF DARK MATTER https://bit.ly/2K6rW2K
 

TxGal

Day by day

Far, far below average temperatures across much of the central and eastern United States

April 14, 2020 by Robert

Winter will not give up, warns the Weather Service. Record cold temperatures are possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley into portions of the Plains…the mid section of the nation.

Temperatures will be 10 to 30 degrees below average across much of the central and eastern United States.

Meanwhile, heavy snow is likely over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies…

Heavy snow to blanket the region

As this system exits into the eastern Atlantic tonight showers and wet snowflakes will overspread the central/southern Appalachians, as well as the Mid-Atlantic states. Across the northern and central Rockies, winter will not give up as cold temperatures and heavy snow blanket the region.

A cold front is forecast to enter from Canada tonight and swing through the western U.S. Wednesday and Thursday. 1 to 2 feet of snow is possible across the higher elevations of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado.

Upwards of 6 inches of snow (15 cm) is forecast across the High Plains of Wyoming and northern Colorado. Snow showers are also possible across the Central Plains and Lower Great Lakes along the front.

Will feel more like March instead of mid-April

Temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S. will feel more like March instead of mid-April. Thus, widespread Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories stretch from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. The core of the cold air will be found across the Midwest and Northern Plains through Thursday. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s and 40s in this region, with lows in the teens and 20s.

Temperature records could fall

A few daily temperature records could fall here. Meanwhile, the West Coast and southern Florida will enjoy above average temperatures. Forecast lows in the 70s across southern Florida would break a plethora of daily high minimum temperature records.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?
 

TxGal

Day by day
Having a little trouble posting the twitter items (I think)...not sure why, I used to be able to do this! If they don't show up, please follow the link for the graphics, etc.


“Arctic April” grips North America Breaking Hundreds of All-Time Cold Records

April 14, 2020 Cap Allon


Record cold and snowfall hit many parts of North America over the Easter weekend, continuing what has so far been a largely Arctic April.

Records were toppled across many U.S. states, with Montana, Iowa, South Dakota, and Colorado seemingly worst hit.

A winter storm system moved through Iowa on Sunday delivering between three inches and a foot to the majority of locations — several northern Iowa towns saw their all-time records tumble:

The 3.7 inches reported at Sioux Gateway Airport broke the record for April 12th; it also made it the second highest Easter snowfall ever behind the 4.7 inches during Easter 1929.

The town of Ringsted in Emmet County (also Iowa) came in with a record-busting 11 inches. Robert “Lightning” Petersen was the man to logged the new record — he uses his back yard to park measuring equipment to keep track of snowfall, and rainfall. He works in concert with the National Weather Service out of Johnston.

When the snow fell on Easter Sunday, he checked his 12-inch gauge and was shocked to discover the almost 1 foot total, reports whotv.com/news.

“I was flabbergasted because it was not a blizzard activity during the day,” said Petersen. “But holy smokes, when I got that gauge up on the deck, it was plum full. I thought it can’t be. I must be seeing things.”

According to the National Weather Service (NWS), other Eastern snowfall records tumbled in Rock Valley (7 inches), Hull (6.5 inches), and Rock Rapids (8.3 inches).

Nearby Sioux Falls, South Dakota saw a whopping 5.2 inches on Monday, the most snowfall on any date in the city going back to 1893.

View: https://twitter.com/MatthewDux/status/1249368177408200704


Denver’s Monday morning low temperature of 16F broke the city’s record for coldest April 13 ever, with snow expected throughout the week.

The cold record, which was set at Denver International Airport –the official recording site for Denver– eclipsed the previous record of 17F set way back in 1933, the NWS confirmed in a Tweet:

View: https://twitter.com/NWSBoulder/status/1249663592460320768


The all-time record for ‘coldest high temperature’ also fell on Monday — the 27F set back in 1933 was ousted by a full two degrees:

View: https://twitter.com/NWSBoulder/status/1249858165384056837


Trawling through the NWS Boulder’s Twitter feed, this snowfall nugget also emerged: Boulder has already had 134.3″ of snow this season — the 5th largest accumulation on record:

View: https://twitter.com/NWSBoulder/status/1249880959249518594


The story was all-too similar in and around Rochester, MN.

It was an Easter snowstorm residents of southeast Minnesota will be talking about for some time, reads a krocnews.com article.

Rochester’s official total at the city airport was 7.5 inches. That pipped the previous record for April 12 –7.2 inches, 1962– and also made it the city’s 4th snowiest April day of all-time.

The NWS reported even heavier falls in Elgin (10.8 inches), Wabasha (10 inches), and the Oronoco area (9.7 inches).

(more follows at the link)
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
NW Central Arkansas here. Computer said it was 30 when I got up at 7:30 and now says 32 which is what my thermometer showed when I fed the cat.

Sure am glad I remembered to cover my bedding plants last night! And my four little volunteer potatoes!
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
I just listened to Diamond's podcast about "no more meat" and he was REALLY UGLY about Ice Age Farmer. Some of his reasoning was outright incorrect and the other was just twisted to his own preferences, such as eating all organic, which some people don't care about or just plain cannot do.

I had gotten used to him and some of his videos are interesting, but this one was really nasty and sarcastic.

Oppenheimer Ranch Project Runs 5:22 minutes.
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
I just listened to Diamond's podcast about "no more meat" and he was REALLY UGLY about Ice Age Farmer. Some of his reasoning was outright incorrect and the other was just twisted to his own preferences, such as eating all organic, which some people don't care about or just plain cannot do.

I had gotten used to him and some of his videos are interesting, but this one was really nasty and sarcastic.

Oppenheimer Ranch Project Runs 5:22 minutes.
Yeah, I think it was too strong. I think Diamond is getting tired of the panic (and there is a lot of it) and just unleashed on Christian. Being that they're on the same side of the fence on a lot of other things, I also think that made him even more irritated.
 

txs

Contributing Member
hard freeze here last night on the south cumberland plateau, dog's water had ice on top at sunrise this morning.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out. It's part 2 of the series he's running (3 total):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8dWwDf7qzc


Out of Lock Down Right Into Food Shortages (Bob Kudla 2/3)

Run time is 17:10

Bob Kudla of tradelikeagenius.com and David DuByne from ADAPT 2030 discuss the current state of global agriculture, economy and how yields across every country are declining and what to expect as we move into 2023 with a brief interlude to the biggest crash since the Roman Empire.

•Models vs reality: climate change and CV19 both wildly exaggerated
•Desert S.W USA greening
•Strategic grain reserves
•Apple Snail damages US rice crops
•Victory Garden
•Earth returns to more natural state after global lock down
•Competitive alternatives to the farm
 

TxGal

Day by day
Ice Age Farmer has a new podcast premiering now:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx6gxTa8SRM


Gabe Brown on Regenerative Solutions to Modern Problems - Ice Age Farmer Podcast

Run time is 1:18:13

Gabe Brown of Browns Ranch -- a pioneer of the soil-health movement and regenerative practices -- joins Christian to discuss regenerative practices and soil health as the bottom line solutions to the myriad problems we face. We discuss the Covid19 pandemic and what we can learn from it, how healthy living soil helped Brown's Ranch weather the difficult, cold and wet 2019 season in North Dakota -- and can do the same for you! Producers from homesteaders/gardeners to larger farmer ranchers can start improving their operations immediately without huge capital investment. Gabe also describes how they have actually been getting a boost in sales due to their direct-to-market approach. And of course we describe the 6 rules for building amazing soil and growing lots of food!
 
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Martinhouse

Veteran Member
TxGal, thanks for posting those.

Good news. The peach lady called me ready to get the rabbits to me. When I explained the mess my handyman left me to deal with, she suggested that she keep the rabbits longer, as they are tame, and the doe is bred so she will raise the new litter to weaning age for me and in the meantime her grandkids will handle and tame the babies really well. She keeps her breeders tame like pets. I like that idea and hope I'm able to carry on the same way with them. She'll try to get one doe from a different doe's litter, but they might end up being sisters. Best we can do.

Anyway, it will be several weeks until a new litter is tamed and weaned so I'm hopeful I'll be able to handle getting the rabbit area cleaned up and back in shape.

Nice to know my kitty won't starve if I can't get more cat food.
 

flame

Contributing Member
They are telling us to expect 3-9" of snow Thursday thru Friday. And then Saturday its supposed to hit 62°.
Whiplash weather.
 

TxGal

Day by day

Record snowfall and record cold

April 15, 2020 by Robert

From Colorado to South Dakota to Minnesota to Wisconsin to Iowa
Are we getting fake news, or no news? – Had you heard any of this?
______________

Record Easter snowfall for Eau Claire

The snowiest Easter on record in Eau Claire also broke the daily record. As of the latest report, the official amount for Eau Claire is 7.7″, while the previous daily record for April 12 was 7.0″ from 1962. The previous snowiest Easter on record was March 31, 1929 at 5.5″.

Here are some of the latest snowfall reports around Western Wisconsin:
Lublin: 11.0″
Medford: 10.0″
Weyerhaeuser & Tony: 9.0″
Mondovi: 8.3″
Alma, Hudson & Loyal: 8.0″
Pepin: 7.7″
Ellsworth: 7.0″
Chippewa Falls: 6.2″
Arcadia & Neillsville: 6.0″
A record Easter snowfall for Eau Claire
…..

Several Iowa cities set Easter snowfall records with more than 6 inches (15 cm)
Ringsted, Iowa received 11 inches, according to the National Weather Service in Des Moines. Rock Valley received 7 inches. Hull received 6.5 inches. Rock Rapids received 8.3 inches.
Iowa cities set Easter snowfall records, several with more than 6 inches
…..

Most snowfall on any date in South Dakota city
13 Apr 2020 – Sioux Falls, South Dakota got 5.2 inches, the most snowfall on any date in the city dating back to 1893, according to the National Weather Service in Sioux Falls. Sioux City got 3.7 inches, an April 12 record, and the second-most snow in recorded history there on Easter.
Iowa cities set Easter snowfall records, several with more than 6 inches
…..

Colorado – Record cold for Denver
14 Apr 2020 – Monday morning the low was 15 for a daily record. It was only the second time in the last 54 years the temperature in Denver was 16 or colder this late in the season.

Monday’s high was 25 which was a record cold high temperature for the date.

The low temperature this morning in Denver was 11 degrees for a daily record.
Belski's Blog - Record cold for Denver... Record snow for Boulder
…..

Boulder Hits 134.3 Inches Of Snow For Season, Less Than 9 Inches From Snowiest Season Ever – Also record cold
14 Apr 2020 – Mother Nature hit Boulder with over a foot (more than 30 cm) of new snow during the most recent storm. The city recorded 17.7 inches of snow in a 36-hour period that ended at 7 a.m. Monday morning.

Boulder also experienced record cold including a new record low daily high temperature of 27 degrees on April 13. The previous record was 38 degrees from 1945.
Boulder Hits 134.3 Inches Of Snow For Season, Less Than 9 Inches From Snowiest Ever
…..

Colorado Springs sets record low temperature ahead of more snow – Snaps a mark that had stood for 87 years
The mercury bottomed out at 7F (-13.9C) just before 4 a.m. Tuesday morning, beating the record of 8F set in 1933, according to the National Weather Service in Pueblo.

Monday saw 6 inches of snow in much of the city to more than 8 inches at the Air Force Academy.
More snow totals here.
Colorado Springs sets record low temperature ahead of more snow
…..

Record cold in Minnesota
A cold-weather record was broken at the Rochester airport early Tuesday when the mercury dropped to 17F. That broke the previous record low for April 14 of 18F set in 1962.
Rochester's Record Snow Has Been Replaced By Record Cold Weather
 

TxGal

Day by day

1587048354398.png
Incredible North America Snow Extent — Grand Solar Minimum

April 16, 2020 Cap Allon


North America’s Snow Cover Extent simply isn’t budging, even as the month of May fast approaches. Welcome, AGW alarmists, to the real climate emergency; the next Grand Solar Minimum…

…prepare.


The official graphs and charts speak for themselves:




1587048429843.png

And all that powder isn’t shifting any time soon, not with these forecast temperature departures.

Large swathes of North America are expected to see temps some 20C below the seasonal average into late April:

1587048479985.png

The story is the same across the Northern Hemisphere, with Total Snow Mass sitting at some 500 gigatons above the 1982-2012 average:

1587048538484.png


1587048559851.png

Total Snow Mass for Northern Hemisphere [globalcryospherewatch.org]

All that extra albedo reflecting heat to the harsh environs of outer space.

Never to return.

Thanks Bob.


The COLD TIMES are returning, the lower latitudes (where us humans reside) are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Even NASA agrees, in part at least, with their forecast for this upcoming solar cycle (25) revealing it will be “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.




1587048609876.png


Don’t fall for bogus warm-mongering political agendas — our future is one of ever-descending COLD & CROP LOSS.

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be, and GROW YOUR OWN (get the spuds in).
 

TxGal

Day by day
TxGal, thanks for posting those.

Good news. The peach lady called me ready to get the rabbits to me. When I explained the mess my handyman left me to deal with, she suggested that she keep the rabbits longer, as they are tame, and the doe is bred so she will raise the new litter to weaning age for me and in the meantime her grandkids will handle and tame the babies really well. She keeps her breeders tame like pets. I like that idea and hope I'm able to carry on the same way with them. She'll try to get one doe from a different doe's litter, but they might end up being sisters. Best we can do.

Anyway, it will be several weeks until a new litter is tamed and weaned so I'm hopeful I'll be able to handle getting the rabbit area cleaned up and back in shape.

Nice to know my kitty won't starve if I can't get more cat food.
Hey, that's great! Isn't it amazing how sometimes no matter how bleak things seem to be, they ultimately work out....sometimes for the better. Given all the stories in the news this morning about worldwide impending food shortages, this is coming at a good time for you.
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
TxGal, IAF has posted yet more items about packing plant closings on his Twitter page. I haven't listened to his latest podcast because I don't like the interview types as well as his direct reports, but I'll be checking it out some time today.

Not sure I'll listen to DuByene's latest, as they seem to be mostly about investing and digital currency, none of which interest me in the slightest.

Hoping it will get warm enough outside this afternoon so I can start doing a few things.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ3DPwoD-ek


Sudden Food Shortage Alarm (964)

Run time is 13:13

Warnings suddenly out from the U.N, China, Canada, Europe and USA about inbound food shortages as the reshuffling economy cannot cope with delivery changes so much food is going to waste the same after Armistice from WW1. If this information does not get to you to grow your own food, nothing will.
 

TxGal

Day by day
TxGal, IAF has posted yet more items about packing plant closings on his Twitter page. I haven't listened to his latest podcast because I don't like the interview types as well as his direct reports, but I'll be checking it out some time today.

Not sure I'll listen to DuByene's latest, as they seem to be mostly about investing and digital currency, none of which interest me in the slightest.

Hoping it will get warm enough outside this afternoon so I can start doing a few things.
Just got home from med appt with DH, while there I stopped in at Lowe's to pick up some raised bed soil. My gosh, they had a ton of soil, mulch, etc....rows and rows of wrapped pallet outside the store, running the entire length. Inside, lots of flowers, no fruit trees, berry bushes and only a handfull of beaten-up eggplant and cuke plants left. I didn't venture inside the store to check on the vegetable seed supply.

I'm with you on the investing stuff...I wish they'd just still to the GSM and food issues like they used to.

We're semi warm today, but another decent cold front coming in for the weekend.
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
TxGal, I decided to listen to all three of DuByne's latest podcasts and do some knitting, and hope there was something useful in with the investing stuff. Glad I did because part 3 of the 3 was not an interview and he crammed a lot of food shortage/crop situation information into it.

He said he and Christian would be doing a live-stream show together tomorrow night (Friday). My computer won't play the live stream stuff so I'll have to stay up late or wait until the next day to listen to it. I wonder if they will mention what Diamond did, trashing IAF, or if they will graciously choose to ignore it.

Glad to hear that your Lowe's store hasn't gone ridiculous about selling from their garden center.
-----
One of the big pumpkins I bought last fall has sort of caved in and started slobbering. I'm going to chop it up and sling the good parts to the chickens and toss the rest in various composty places and see if some of the seeds might germinate. I'll be sure any resulting plants won't smother any places I'm growing anything important. Hope something happens.....it will be interesting to watch!
 
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TxGal

Day by day
Good to know about the podcasts, thanks! I did watch the one I just posted a bit ago...really made me nervous about the food supply going forward. I'm waiting to watch the joint podcast, too, maybe not as it airs live, though.

I checked Baker Creek Heirloom seeds again, we're fine for a few years as long as most germinate, but it still makes me think. They were out of stock of quite a few things, but they have so many varieties there are some available.

I would do exactly the same thing with the pumpkin. I don't think we can pass up any opportunity! This is all looking ugly.
 

alpha

Veteran Member
It has been a while since I posted here because life has been a bit crazy as I'm sure you all know. Even though we've been prepping since the late ninety's, one of my daughters in law has just been introduced to the consequences of not preparing. My extremely talented wife has been spending every free moment bringing this newly laid off DiL up to speed on all kinds of domestic chores such as gardening and putting crops up. All this while tending to our own gardens and high tunnel plantings. She's like the Energizer rabbit!

Me? Well, I've been blessed with baby goats to sell to defray the constant costs of animal feed and hay. Yesterday we added some started pullets to our chicken coup and today 100 broiler chicks arrived. Another beef calf is due to join us in early June and I placed a deposit on a new buck for delivery the end of May.

The reason I had to find time to post today is based upon discussions I've had with several local farmers. We've all been hearing from folks in general that 'everything is going to return to 'normal' by Summer'. I have no idea what they consider to be 'normal', but our unanimous opinion is that society is in for as rude an awakening as my daughter in law is experiencing. The new 'normal' is going to be very similar to the days of the Great Depression. Our economy was already on the edge of default and this virus nudged it over the cliff. Many companies, large and small, will never recover as is demonstrated by JC Penny and Neiman Marcus declaring bankruptcy this week. All this printing of 'stimulus program' currency extends the country's debt well beyond rational limits, and could cause hyperinflation. Our currency is being trashed and our food production hollowed out by both the virus and the weather.

For those who sell typical homestead livestock, be it chickens or goats, there appears to be a demand beyond normal years as I'm getting inquiries from people who have never raised either. The veil is lifting and there's very limited time to adequately prepare for what is to come this year. I pray that everyone here is heeding their 'spidey senses' and planting as though their lives depend upon it... they very well may!
 

Cardinal

Snark: a higher form of communication
_______________
We live in Maine. Colder than a witch’s teat this last month. Normal for the period of the past mid-centuty.
Anyways, our forefathers and foremothers back in the 1600s and 1700s had it worse.
Now we can build greenhouses, retro-super insulate houses, build rocket stove mass heaters and warm our houses on 1/4 of traditional amounts of wood, use wood gasification to run our engines on waste wood, etc. most urbanites tho will move to warmer climates and suffer the consequences of mingling with people who prefer everything easier and comfortable making them lazier fatter, and dumber, or at least more careless about survival tactics.
Jed, the problem with living someplace where you are "on the edge" is that it is too easy to fall off. Ever read, "To Build a Fire?" Jack London, I think.

Or hear the Chris Knight song, North Dakota?
One small misstep can kill ya.

As long as I am living alone, I will be where it is warm enough that I can afford to get deathly ill and stay in bed a few days without worrying about the climate killing me.
 

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
Jed, the problem with living someplace where you are "on the edge" is that it is too easy to fall off. Ever read, "To Build a Fire?" Jack London, I think.

Or hear the Chris Knight song, North Dakota?
One small misstep can kill ya.

As long as I am living alone, I will be where it is warm enough that I can afford to get deathly ill and stay in bed a few days without worrying about the climate killing me.
Yes, Cardinal, we are all living on the edge at all times, it is just more obvious in the colder climes, and hence more needful to have loyal, dedicated, responsible people/friends, family nearby. Been thinking lately about how eskimos managed to survive such a harsh climate. And wondering what their songs sound like. I have noticed that as I am working about the homestead that whistling or singing (no audience present of course, I am afterall, compassionate to a degree) tends to make the work itself far less burdensome.
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
Well, the Adapt 2030 podcast posted earlier today was NOT part 3 of 3 of the Bob Kudla interview. The part 3 of 3 has just now been posted. The good one we listened to earlier today was a stand-alone report.

This latest , 3 of 3, is "Where We Go from Here" and runs 20:17 minutes.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Well, the Adapt 2030 podcast posted earlier today was NOT part 3 of 3 of the Bob Kudla interview. The part 3 of 3 has just now been posted. The good one we listened to earlier today was a stand-alone report.

This latest , 3 of 3, is "Where We Go from Here" and runs 20:17 minutes.
Oh heck, sorry about that! I'll get in there and see what I can do.

Here's the new Adapt 2030 podcast with Bob Kudla:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFc2jg-xjzY


Opportunity Transition Into Hi-Tech Local Agriculture (Bob Kudla 3/3)

Run time is 20:16

Bob Kudla of tradelikeagenius.com and David DuByne from ADAPT 2030 discuss the current state of global agriculture, economy and how yields across every country are declining and what to expect as we move into 2023 with a brief interlude to the biggest crash since the Roman Empire.

•Robotic indoor vertical agriculture
•Construction and hospitality Industries that may disappear
•Indoor agriculture
•Algae strains for specific purpose
•Algae to create specific enzymes
•Automated Machine Tasks vs. Hand Made
•Dehydrating fruit that is in season
#thinklikeyourgrandma
 

TxGal

Day by day
Some good articles from Ice Age Farmer's twitter feed:


Coronavirus creates uncertainties for wheat market
  • By MARK COLON, Lee Agri-Media
  • Apr 16, 2020
1587152755730.png

The spring wheat markets continue the battle against COVID-19 uncertainties, as do many other markets.

After a drop in prices in March when much of the country took measures to shelter at home, in early-April the market attempted to rally a bit, according to said Jim Peterson, marketing director for the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

“The wheat market seems to be holding a bit stronger than other commodities,” Peterson said. “But as we’ve hit the middle of the month we’re starting to see more pressure in the wheat market.”

The Minneapolis cash index for spring wheat was at about $5.25 in late-March, and then dipped down to a low of about $5.10 and then rallied back a bit, Peterson noted, but now we’re seeing further losses. He also pointed out that cash prices across North Dakota are essentially all below $5 for 14 protein spring wheat and as low as $4.60 in some western locales to $4.90 in some eastern locations.

As for fundamentals, Peterson noted there are some positives in the market, but not enough to trump the uncertainties that the coronavirus has brought to the market.

“I think a lot of it is tied to how deep of an economic setback will take place, not only in the U.S., but also internationally, and what that does for demand going forward,” he said.

“We have seen some short-term gains in bread and pasta consumption; some stockpiling by a few of the major countries, but not enough to offset the losses we’re seeing in school use, industrial use, restaurants, hotels, etc., and it’s probably just going to take some time to develop more confidence going forward,” he added.

Looking at fundamentals, the U.S. wheat export situation as of early-April showed we had 920 million bushels (MB) sold, which is about 9 percent ahead of a year ago. The current projection is 985 MB, so the U.S. is at about 93 percent of USDA’s goal for the year. The U.S. also has about 47 MB of new crop sales on the books for sales after June 1, which is a positive.

Looking at the two major classes, hard red winter wheat exports stand at 345 MB, which is up 8 percent from a year ago. The goal for the year is 380 MB, so hard red winter sales are at 91 percent of that goal.

Recently, Peterson noted there was a sale of hard red winter wheat to China, which is helpful.

“Hard red winter was kind of a surprise sale to China as they typically buy hard red spring, or in the past, some soft red winter, but hard red winter seems to be the most competitive, and the best fit for China government reserves,” he said. “Hard red spring is usually most preferred by the non-COFCO buyers, and with hard red spring we’re also challenged by ergot specifications.”

Overall, U.S. hard red spring wheat stands at 272 MB in export sales, which is up 9 percent from a year ago. On a more positive note, USDA’s goal for the year is 275 MB, so hard red spring is at 99 percent of that goal. With that said the U.S. has about 55 MB left to ship out, Peterson noted.

“We’re going to need to see some aggressive export loading over the next couple months, so hopefully there are no hiccups with the coronavirus in terms of inspections or ocean movement,” he said.

A big positive story for hard red spring, according to Peterson, is that sales to Japan are running 19 percent ahead of a year ago.

“We’re seeing some of the benefits of the recently signed U.S.-Japan free trade agreement,” he said, adding that the Philippines remain, by far, the dominant buyer and is on pace to set a new record for spring wheat sales at about 66 MB. They account for almost 25 percent of total U.S. spring wheat exports.

“As of now we’ll continue to watch if we see some forward buying by countries over some of the coronavirus concerns or, if it flips the other way due to economic uncertainty, and we see a pull back on buying which, of course, would add more bearishness to current price trends,” Peterson
said.

Peterson called the recent outlook from USDA a bit bearish for overall wheat. On April 9, USDA came out with updated supply and demand numbers and in the report USDA lowered wheat exports by 15 MB due to challenges with hard red winter and soft red winter trying to compete with Russian and European Union (EU) wheat. USDA also lowered feed use by 15 MB, part of that due to the drop in corn prices over the last few months. With that USDA then raised ending stocks by 30 MB.

There was no adjustment to projected food use of wheat in the U.S.

“Maybe that will take until May to see if we see any increase in food use with the self-isolation across the U.S. and more in-home use of bread products,” he said.

On the world level Peterson said the report was a bit bearish. Again, USDA raised ending stocks of wheat in the world primarily due to lower domestic use of wheat in China, India and the EU of a combined of 180 MB due to supply chain bottlenecks and lockdown policies due to the coronavirus.

On a positive note, on the trade side USDA lowered Russian exports due to the self-imposed government export restrictions by Russia on exports through June. On the downside, that was offset by an increase in EU exports of spring wheat so the net effect was a wash.

Going forward, there is some concern of both the Russian and EU crop for 2020 with some pockets of dryness starting to show up. That will need monitoring going forward.

As far as the U.S. 2020 crop, USDA is starting to release more frequent crop progress updates for the winter wheat crop. In general the crop is running ahead of last year in terms of maturity with 35 percent of the crop headed in Texas. In Oklahoma close to 90 percent of the crop has jointed, which is 20 percent ahead of last year, and in Kansas a third of the crop has already jointed, up from 20 percent from last year.

As far as the condition of crop, the best conditions are in Nebraska and South Dakota with 75-80 percent rated in good-to-excellent condition. Further south into western Kansas and Colorado, conditions are a bit drier and 50 percent is rated good-to-excellent. In parts of south Texas there is some drought and some of the crop is being harvested for hay.
Overall, the U.S. winter wheat crop is rated 62 good-to-excellent, which is slightly better than a year ago.

“The concern right now for the winter wheat crop is with some of the unusual and record breaking cold temperatures in mid-April and the earlier maturity pace of the crop, that makes it more prone to these cold snaps,” he said. “So far there hasn’t been any market reaction, but if damage is confirmed in the next week or so, you could see some market reaction out of that.”

The hard red spring wheat crop is just getting rolling in terms of planting, Peterson pointed out. Planting so far is a little behind average with just 2 percent planted in Montana, 6 percent in South Dakota and 0 percent in North Dakota and Minnesota as of April 13. Overall, 5 percent of the U.S. spring wheat crop is planted, which is slightly behind the 9 percent average.

“We’ll see what happens going forward. If we get some late season moisture and continued cold temperatures, we could start to get some market reaction,” he said.

In eastern areas there is some discussion of maybe more spring wheat acres going in and less corn due to the shutdown of some of the ethanol plants due to the collapse of oil prices and the effect that’s had on ethanol and corn.

“Even though hard red spring wheat prices have been retreating as well, corn has fallen more sharply and the outlook a little more bearish,” Peterson said. “We’ll see what happens, but we are hearing some talk of a bit more interest in spring wheat in some of the eastern areas. That’s kind of where we sit. It’s a pretty challenging situation with a lot of added uncertainty.”

Minneapolis futures have traded in that $5-$5.40 range for much of the year, and new crop at $5.20-$5.55.

“We’ll see if those ranges hold as we’re now pressing on the bottom side of those ranges and looking for more confidence in demand and economic signals, or production/planting concerns with the 2020 crop,” he said. “Until then the market is, unfortunately, being driven by coronavirus concerns.”
 

TxGal

Day by day
And another:


Ag Weather Forum

Multiple Freezes Threaten Winter Wheat in Southern Great Plains

By Emily Unglesbee


4/15/2020 | 1:41 PM CDT

ROCKVILLE, Md. (DTN) -- The crunch John Schlessiger heard when he stepped into his wheat field early this week sent a chilling signal. For three nights in a row, temperatures have dropped well below freezing where he farms in central Kansas, near Claflin.

Early in the morning hours of April 15, temperatures dropped to 23 degrees Fahrenheit on his farm, after a low of 21 degrees on April 14 and a plunge to 19 degrees the previous day.

"They say we have to kill the wheat crop three times before we harvest it," Schlessiger said. "I'd say we've made a fair start on it."

Those chilly nights have been widespread across the Southern Great Plains, noted DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson. "Central Kansas temperatures got down to the 19 to 22 degrees early this week," he noted. "This is typically the highest-producing wheat area in Kansas -- the breadbasket of the breadbasket."

Overall, most of the state's winter wheat acres have been exposed to potentially damaging low temperatures, concluded Romulo Lollato, Kansas State University wheat and forages specialist. "It really seems like the entire state could have some level of freeze damage," he said.

Lollato estimates that fields in the state's wheat-heavy central and south-central counties were either jointing or approaching flag leaf.

Schlessiger's fields were among them, with most wheat plants in the first or second jointing stage. That means that young wheat heads were pushing their way up toward the top of the growing wheat plant, still coiled inside the stem but far from the protective cover of the soil.

At these stages, just two hours below 24 degrees can result in moderate to severe yield loss from freeze injury, Lollato noted. (See a chart on freeze injury potential by growth stage here: https://bookstore.ksre.ksu.edu/…)

Some of Oklahoma's wheat crop, which is further along, is also at risk from freeze damage, after temperatures in the state dipped to freezing and below this week, a dangerous temperature for the 2% of the state's crop in the heading stages, (as estimated by USDA NASS on Monday). See more from Oklahoma State University here: https://osuwheat.com/….

Both Kansas and Oklahoma experienced additional cold snaps last week, on the night of April 3 into April 4. Although Lollato suspects most Kansas wheat probably came through those chilly hours OK, Oklahoma Small Grains Extension Specialist Amanda de Oliveira Silva reported that some level of injury was possible for some northern Oklahoma growers. (See more here: https://osuwheat.com/….)

The April freezes are a painful example of the danger of "false springs," a phenomenon where warmer-than-average temperatures early in the year lure crops into rapid springtime growth, Anderson noted.

"March temperatures were above or much above normal east of the Rockies and encouraged plants to move into their spring phases," he noted.

Schlessiger believes the second and third night of subfreezing temperatures in Kansas this week pushed the cold air deeper into the canopy of wheat fields, further increasing the risk of serious freeze damage. "We've seen freezes like this, but not consecutive one after the other," he said.

"Wheat had an actual frosted look on the leaves that it didn't have on Monday," he continued. "On Monday, it still had some elasticity to it, and on Tuesday, you could actually hear it crunch under your feet."

These freezes came amid dry weather, which means wheat fields had no insulating effects from snow, Schlessiger added.
More cold weather is expected for this region for the remainder of the week, said DTN's Anderson. "The rest of this week in the Southern Great Plains will still be chilly -- lows in the upper 20s to low 30s in central Kansas," he said.

After the mercury finally creeps back up, the hardest part will begin for farmers, Lollato said.

"We need to wait about a week to 10 days to see the extent of the damage," he estimated. "It will be a long, anxious time."
The color of any new wheat leaves will be farmers' first clue to the wheat plant's fate, Lollato said. Green, growing leaves are a good sign; yellow leaves mean the leaves are dying or dead.

A pocketknife can deliver the final verdict on each tiller.

"Split the stem open lengthwise and look for the developing heads," Lollato said. "If it is nice and light and green, that is a good sign. If that head is whitish, yellow, brown or mushy, then that tiller is gone."

Don't forget to check a plant's smaller additional tillers, too, he added. The plant's primary tillers are usually furthest along in development, so secondary and tertiary tillers can often be less mature and may have escaped damage.

"That small difference in development can make a huge difference in whether they survive or not," he said. "Even if some primary tillers die, there is a good chance a wheat plant will have enough additional tillers to make up some yields."
That possibility will depend heavily on the weather, however.

"We are actually dry right here, and we've missed our last few chances at moisture," Schlessiger said. "That's what has me more concerned is about the plant's ability to recover. If we don't get a rain, it's going to be challenging for us."

Lollato agreed, noting that cool conditions with good moisture would be ideal for wheat plants to recover and even rebound from injury.

Those conditions may only materialize for some, with light and scattered rain and snow showers expected for Kansas and Oklahoma, with the exception of the Oklahoma Panhandle, the rest of this week, Anderson said.

Schlessiger does have the option of chopping silage if wheat doesn't recover.

"It just so happens that all of our silos where we can store silage long term are empty, and we were joking right before this freeze hit about it," he recalled.

But for now, he plans to go ahead and let the wheat grow and see what it looks like.

"We're not going to kill it before it's dead, but we will chop some of it if that turns out to be an option," he said. "We have our own chopper and trucks and can do it ourselves."

 

Jubilee on Earth

Veteran Member
Click on "Home" and then the word "sub-forum" underneath TB2K. "Gardening" will be down a ways on that "sub-forum" list.
I'm still not seeing it. Nor do I see the word “sub-forum.” Here's a screenshot. Underneath that is the special interest forums. I had this problem last time, and it took me forever to find it. I guess that’s why I don’t post there much.

FC85DB12-BCBA-4846-AC98-9B4E31CBCFDD.jpeg
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
Glad you found it. But I see on your screen shot that you clicked on "Forums" instead of "Home". "sub-forums" is there plain as day when "TB2K" comes up after clicking on "Home".
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
I just watched the Adapt 2030/Ice Age Farmer podcast. I was able to watch it live, no idea why my computer actually decided to cooperate! But now I can't find it on either guy's website. I can't even say how long it was because I forgot to time it.

Anyway, it was quite good. I got lots of knitting done because after appreciating IAF's outdoor background, which I think is part of his own place, there was nothing to look at. It was just a conversation to listen to.

Maybe later or in the morning it will be posted so the link can be put here on this thread. I believe it will be on the Adapt 2030 site, not IAF.
 

TxGal

Day by day
I can't find it either!! Maybe in the morning it will be easy to spot. I did see this on DuByne's twitter feed:


UPDATE 4-Russia will suspend grain exports for 6 weeks if its quota runs out in mid-May

Polina Devitt
4 Min Read

* Russia’s Q2 grain export quota set at 7 mln T
* May be depleted by mid-May or earlier - ministry
* Ministry: “only domestic market will remain after that”
* Several supplies to Egypt might be affected - traders (Writes through to add new comment from Russia)

By Polina Devitt

MOSCOW, April 17 (Reuters) - Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, will suspend grain exports until July 1 once its export quota is exhausted, which is currently expected to happen in mid-May, its deputy agriculture minister Oksana Lut said on Friday.

Russia last fully banned wheat exports in 2010 when drought hit its harvest, rocking global markets. Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh are the largest buyers of Russian wheat.

“The quota was introduced for the period from April 1 to June 30, 2020. After it is depleted, the supplies outside the (Russia-led) Eurasian Economic Union will be stopped for this period,” Lut said.

“Based on the pace of the quota filling, it is expected that exports will be suspended in mid-May.”

There are no plans to increase the second-quarter quota, and the agriculture ministry could keep the grain export quota mechanism in the new 2020/21 marketing season, which starts on July 1, Lut said.

To conserve supplies for the domestic market during the coronavirus outbreak, Russia, along with several neighbouring countries which are large wheat exporters via the Black Sea, limited grain exports earlier in April.

These moves led to a lower than usual number of suppliers at a tender by Egypt’s state grain buyer on Thursday, as some traders did not submit offers due to fears over potential export bans in the Black Sea region.

“Mid-May is now increasingly seen as the time the quota will be used up because of the rapid pace of Russian exports. There is perceptible caution about selling Russian wheat in international markets beyond this date,” a European trader said.
If the Russian quota is depleted in mid-May and exports are suspended, it could hit Egypt’s latest purchases of Russian wheat, Cairo-based traders said.

“This may very well hurt the latest vessels that Egypt booked,” one of them said.

Egypt, the world’s largest wheat buyer, booked 180,000 tonnes of Russian wheat in its tenders this week in an effort to beef up its strategic reserves amid the coronavirus.

The shipment of the three supplies is due on May 15-25, May 21-June 5 and May 26-June 5.

If Russia’s grain exports are suspended, there will be no exceptions for certain companies, Lut said. “The mechanism was developed without dividing the permitted amount of exports among market participants.”

Russia set the quota for grain exports at 7 million tonnes for the April to June period.

Although the amount is roughly in line with what the country was expected to ship in that period, Russia's online calculator shows here that as of Friday only 4.2 million tonnes of grain remained available for export from the quota.

The Russia-led Eurasian Economic customs union, which includes Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, is exempt from the quota, Lut said, adding that Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan had already requested Russian grain for purchase.
Advertisement

There is still a chance that Russia’s grain exports will slow down and the quota will run out later than in mid-May, Andrey Sizov, at SovEcon consultancy, said. “We expect a sharp decrease in the pace of exports,” he said.

Russian farmers have been selling grain to exporters more actively in recent weeks as global prices rose on Russia’s decision to limit exports and other factors, Lut said.

However, this process will soon slow as exporters are already taking into account the risk of missing out on what remains of the export quota, she added.

(Reporting by Polina Devitt; Additional reporting by Maha El Dahan and Michael Hogan; Editing by Jan Harvey, Veronica Brown and David Evans)
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
Thanks, hope it will be there. Not sure how I found it. It was there on Adapt 2030 You Tube. Maybe he took it down to edit it, since it was streamed live.

Hope he didn't post it just on one of those other places he mentions. I can't join anything that requires a credit or debit card.

Glad I was able to listen to it when I did. It was good. they didn't interrupt each other a lot, neither monopolied the time, and DuByne wasn't using that irritating sing-song salesman tone he seems to have mostly adopted more than usual lately.
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
Just checked Adapt 2030 again and the new video is up now.

The State of Global Food Production, What You Are Not Being Told - Ice Age Farmer.

Running time 1:35:35
 

TxGal

Day by day
Excellent, thank you!

As Martinhouse said, Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out, this is the one he did with Ice Age Farmer. Looks like he changed the title and broke it up into three parts now:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl3Z50nnzrg


Stressing About Food Prices, This Will Help (Christian Westbrook / David DuByne 1/3)

Run time is 28:24

Christian Westbrook of Ice Age Farmer and David DuByne of ADAPT 2030 discuss changes that have sent our planet into a new management system and how we all need to become more self-sufficient as the global elite weaponize food for more control of the populace. We don’t need the power elite any longer we can do it ourselves, solutions for a new world, localized, decentralized and un-taxed.
 

TxGal

Day by day

Record low temperatures in Colorado damage peach crops

April 17, 2020 by Robert

Potentially devastating freeze for Grand Valley orchards breaks record set in 1933.

National Weather Service meteorologist Kris Sanders reported a record low 19F (-7.2C) Monday in Grand Junction, according to The Daily Sentinel. This was a full two degrees below the previous record set in 1933.

Other crops such as pears and cherries may also have been affected by the freeze.

Grower Bruce Talbott said there may not be enough crop this year to market outside of local consumers.

Low temperatures in Colorado cause damage to peach crops
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Our farmer's market opened up this week and it was an amazing success! Due to the corona virus we switched to an on-line ordering and drive by pickup on Tuesdays and Saturdays. Several dozen member farmers notify the administrator what products they have to offer, announcements are placed on the webpage and orders/payments taken. Pickup is restricted to a 2 hour window twice a week. We enjoyed the highest sales success we've had in the past four years.

Success!!!
 
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