Solar The Grand Solar Minimum (ORIGINAL)

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von Koehler

Veteran Member
NOTE: After a discussion in the Lounge, I’ve “un-deleted” this thread. For whatever reason, von Koehler got all butt-hurt over this thread being open. No idea why. I overreacted by deleting it, so it’s been brought back from the dead. Feel free to copy anything from this thread to the new one EXCEPT any “creative content“ written by von Koehler.

Dennis




View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8a8MHlWoCYk


4:16 minutes

FA
 
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Doomer Doug

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I believe everybody should prepare for bad times the best they can. On the other hand, I realize there are simply certain things that can't be dealt with unless you are a multimillionaire, and even not then very well. Fukushima is something I can't personally do anything about. This new ice age now starting falls into the same category. I can't do anything about North Korea nuking Portland, or India/China and Pakistan lighting each other up with nukes.

Yep, I do the best I can, with what I have, and where I am: after that it is the realm of the spirit.
 

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
We live in Maine. Colder than a witch’s teat this last month. Normal for the period of the past mid-centuty.
Anyways, our forefathers and foremothers back in the 1600s and 1700s had it worse.
Now we can build greenhouses, retro-super insulate houses, build rocket stove mass heaters and warm our houses on 1/4 of traditional amounts of wood, use wood gasification to run our engines on waste wood, etc. most urbanites tho will move to warmer climates and suffer the consequences of mingling with people who prefer everything easier and comfortable making them lazier fatter, and dumber, or at least more careless about survival tactics.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Solar Minimums (as I mentioned about 5 years ago when this news started to become reality) usually produce "mini" Ice-Ages which people even in Scandinavia and Northern China managed to live with (so did the Native Americans but they tended to be more mobile); but it wasn't pretty.

The start of the "Mandur Minimum" in the 14th century created climatic swings in Europe that were so terrible and violent that the resulting famines, starvation, and death made the public start to wonder if God existed and this was BEFORE the Black Death in the first half of the century.

There were the similar swings we are seeing now with very cold and/or very wet Winters with sometimes blazing hot and other times wet/damp Summers none of which is good for traditional agriculture designed for the warm and balmy 10th - 13th centuries (relatively speaking).

But eventually people adjusted, but the Black Death also lowered population to the extent that resources were less stretched and enough property changed hands that people could move or upgrade their homes, farms etc.

A previous mini-ice age resulted in a mass migration of people Southwards and created what Historians call The Migration Age; but most of the public calls "The Dark Ages" as wave after wave of desperate and hungry people were forced out as storms literally washed their lands into the sea, cold made farming in the far North Impossible and people started to die at younger ages leaving graves full of young to middle-aged adults who tests showed died with their lungs filled with smoke and ash from huddling indoors next to the fires.

I am not sure exactly how those tests are done, but I gather if it is bad enough the condition and/or related conditions can show up in the skeletons.

Lifespans didn't go back up again until the warming period of early 900's when the Norse managed to find Iceland, then Greenland and finally Vineland about 100 years later.
 

The Mountain

Here since the beginning
_______________
You need a summary of that video for the people who can't watch it. A runtime would be nice too.
 

Nowski

Veteran Member
First off, I am a doomer, all about the doom,
and nothing better than to see this planet,
deal with the out of control human race,
which it has many times.

That gigantic ball of gas up in the sky controls our weather,
not dumbarse humans, creating too much CO2
which is what the plants breathe.

Now due to the brainwashing by liberals,
they have everyone believing the global warming BS,
when all the data is indicating the exact opposite.

All the global warming people, need to be beaten with a stick.
Its all about taxing the 1st world nations, especially the FUSA,
and sending the tax money to Africa. That is all that it ever was,
taking from the economically producing countries,
and giving to the ecomonically non-producing countries.

They lost when President Trump, pulled the FUSA out of the
Paris Climate BS.

I remember when I was in college in the late 1970's
it was all the talk about a coming ice age,
which no doubt is coming.

Then in the late 1990's, I bought two books,
Not By Fire But By Ice, by Robert Felix,
and The Coming Global Super Storm,
by Art Bell and Whitley Strieber.
Everything in those two books, made perfect sense.

There are some good youtube channels out now,
where finally some scientists are starting to speak out,
trying to alert peoples about the farce that is global warming.

Search on youtube for mini ice age, and global solar minimum,
and you will have a lot of good youtubes, about what is coming,

A lot of peoples are going to freeze their tails off,
and perhaps it will be the global warming morons,
that will freeze the most.

Currently, there is a very small sunspot, about center the solar disk,
and there have been 7 spotless days for 2018.

Bundle up peoples, bundle up.

Please be safe everyone, and please arm up.

Regards to all deplorables.

Nowski
 
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Melodi

Disaster Cat
Two very good books, I have them both Nowski; in addition to what you said, it is also clear from the REAL scientific records that there is almost always, if not always (hard to tell) a huge spike in warming climate right before an Ice Age (real ones especially) and they can come on in as little as five years.

My hope is that we are only starting to enter a "mini" Ice-age which can still last a couple of hundred years but can be survived in Northern Europe, Canada, Siberia etc with certain lifestyle adjustments and being willing to move if things get really grim in one spot to another one.

But a REAL full ice age, very few people will be living in Scandinavia, Northern Eurasia, Canada etc; there is no known technology that will prevent moving Ice Sheets if they decide to move/develop.

The good news is that South of the Ice Sheets, the climate doesn't tend to be THAT bad; last time Southern California and the Southwest were temperate, warmer and wet; in an ideal world, people would just "Move South" and reconfigure agriculture etc.

Except for this time, it would be The Migration Age on steroids; with all those folks already living South of the Ice not being very welcoming to the invaders aka refugees; famine and disease may clear out a lot of people like the famines and Black Death did in the 14th century, but I suspect war will also play a big role.

Let's hope for a mini-Ice Age; our house was built during one and I was just telling husband somewhere on the property there are probably the remains of the old "ice caves" that were built during the 18th century because it was cold enough in the Summer to keep food frozen year round, as long as it was underground that is NOT true today - yet.
 

lanningro

Senior Member
We live in Maine. Colder than a witch’s teat this last month. Normal for the period of the past mid-centuty.
Anyways, our forefathers and foremothers back in the 1600s and 1700s had it worse.
Now we can build greenhouses, retro-super insulate houses, build rocket stove mass heaters and warm our houses on 1/4 of traditional amounts of wood, use wood gasification to run our engines on waste wood, etc. most urbanites tho will move to warmer climates and suffer the consequences of mingling with people who prefer everything easier and comfortable making them lazier fatter, and dumber, or at least more careless about survival tactics.
I'd be real careful about "lazier fatter, and dumber" a lot of us here in the hills live here for a reason. Overalls and T-shirts doesn't mean we don't understand beaten zones and fields of fire. Many a time I have visited family and friends here in the forest and have seen discrete range markers on the land. We feed ourselves and have a network of skill sharing that you just wouldn't understand. We call anybody north of the Mason-Dixon line "Square headed Yankees"
 

Rayku

Sanity is not statistical
Youtube.com is probably the worst source of information you can go to for the subject.
Talking heads via MSM, youtube, etc design and package their content for appeal to a specific demographic audience. They assume the average consumer of their content will simply buy what they are selling carte blanche without question. Always question a product sold for profit.

The actual science is available to anyone willing to put the study time in. I don't mean the AGW, or the doomer pseudoscience either.
 

Old Gray Mare

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I'd be real careful about "lazier fatter, and dumber" a lot of us here in the hills live here for a reason.
Agree. This GD Yankee figured out a long time ago that just because a southern talks a little slower, may move a little slower in the high heat does not mean they think any slower or get any less done.
We call anybody north of the Mason-Dixon line "Square headed Yankees"
Thanks. If I ever hear it I will classify it along with when the Amish refer to me as "English". Had to tell the dowager empress of the family that one. The Scottish ancestors were probably spinning in their graves. FYI: "square head" is a derogatory term for people of Scandinavian heritage. So in my case, being my family fought for the North, the statement would be totally true. Not fightin' words but worthy of a flat totally emotionless glance.
 

lanningro

Senior Member
Agree. This GD Yankee figured out a long time ago that just because a southern talks a little slower, may move a little slower in the high heat does not mean they think any slower or get any less done.
Thanks. If I ever hear it I will classify it along with when the Amish refer to me as "English". Had to tell the dowager empress of the family that one. The Scottish ancestors were probably spinning in their graves. FYI: "square head" is a derogatory term for people of Scandinavian heritage. So in my case, being my family fought for the North, the statement would be totally true. Not fightin' words but worthy of a flat totally emotionless glance.
No worries, third generation German on Mom's side. Dad's family members of Mayflower society. Most of us started as Yankee's. Just got tired of shoveling snow!
 

Optimus Prime

Contributing Member
All the minimums in the past have nothing in common with this one...7.6 billion mouths to feed and warm. This is a verifiable, repeatable natural process. It will come down to food production and where the farming locations will be.

I'm 56, will this affect my generation much, maybe not...but it will affect my grandchildren. The inheritance I will leave them will be long term storage food and seeds.
 

Faroe

Veteran Member
The recent -88F thread got me thinking more about cold, and what a large scale freeze could do in a short period of time. I remember taking to some Alaskans who claimed that past sixty below, things get brittle and break, inc. mechanical equipment and vehicles, and there isn't much you can do but wait it out. (Those with experience in such extreme temps, please correct me if I'm wrong.) Assuming that is true, then if all the pipes are frozen, and nothing is moving, the grid would shut down at some point, urban areas would have nothing, no one would be headed in to relieve them with supplies, and they wouldn't be moving out, because the transportation wouldn't work.

This means homesteaders don't have to worry about fighting off mobs of starving people. Even if the refugees head out on foot, they will freeze to death.

In the event of extreme cold, society's breakdown might be less violent than typically feared.
 

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
I'd be real careful about "lazier fatter, and dumber" a lot of us here in the hills live here for a reason. Overalls and T-shirts doesn't mean we don't understand beaten zones and fields of fire. Many a time I have visited family and friends here in the forest and have seen discrete range markers on the land. We feed ourselves and have a network of skill sharing that you just wouldn't understand. We call anybody north of the Mason-Dixon line "Square headed Yankees"
I was referring to urbanites/suburbanites. Rural folk (small farmers, hunters, trappers) are pretty much the same anywhere: resourceful and fully aware of their environment- both opportunities and dangers. But pretty clear to me, the urbanites/suburbanites outnumber what’s left of america’s Original population of pioneers and settlers, and their still-practicing descendants, and have become clueless and over-specialized, if they have any specialty at all, and are just waiting to be harvested by the next 100 year storm...
 

West

Senior nut
The recent -88F thread got me thinking more about cold, and what a large scale freeze could do in a short period of time. I remember taking to some Alaskans who claimed that past sixty below, things get brittle and break, inc. mechanical equipment and vehicles, and there isn't much you can do but wait it out. (Those with experience in such extreme temps, please correct me if I'm wrong.) Assuming that is true, then if all the pipes are frozen, and nothing is moving, the grid would shut down at some point, urban areas would have nothing, no one would be headed in to relieve them with supplies, and they wouldn't be moving out, because the transportation wouldn't work.

This means homesteaders don't have to worry about fighting off mobs of starving people. Even if the refugees head out on foot, they will freeze to death.

In the event of extreme cold, society's breakdown might be less violent than typically feared.
Yes, amazing how a good freeze or more kills off most of the biteing blood suckers. All by intelligent design.
 

Rayku

Sanity is not statistical
The recent -88F thread got me thinking more about cold, and what a large scale freeze could do in a short period of time. I remember taking to some Alaskans who claimed that past sixty below, things get brittle and break, inc. mechanical equipment and vehicles, and there isn't much you can do but wait it out. (Those with experience in such extreme temps, please correct me if I'm wrong.) Assuming that is true, then if all the pipes are frozen, and nothing is moving, the grid would shut down at some point, urban areas would have nothing, no one would be headed in to relieve them with supplies, and they wouldn't be moving out, because the transportation wouldn't work.

This means homesteaders don't have to worry about fighting off mobs of starving people. Even if the refugees head out on foot, they will freeze to death.

In the event of extreme cold, society's breakdown might be less violent than typically feared.
Low temperature embrittlement (LTE) is a fact.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235217911530017X
http://www.spartaengineering.com/effects-of-low-temperature-on-performance-of-steel-equipment/
http://www.materials.unsw.edu.au/tutorials/online-tutorials/2ductile-brittle-transition
https://www.doitpoms.ac.uk/tlplib/BD6/ductile-to-brittle.php

One of the more notable examples was the Titanic. Rather than deform when it hit the iceberg, the steel broke. This was due to the hull steel being below the ductile to brittle transition temperature.
 

TxGal

Day by day
All the minimums in the past have nothing in common with this one...7.6 billion mouths to feed and warm. This is a verifiable, repeatable natural process. It will come down to food production and where the farming locations will be.

I'm 56, will this affect my generation much, maybe not...but it will affect my grandchildren. The inheritance I will leave them will be long term storage food and seeds.
This! Even down our way, I wonder if we should include some short season seeds or those that do well in cooler climates....seems odd to even think that. A small piece of land with some fruit and nut trees would be nice for future generations, too. I'm doing a bit of research into Texas weather in the 1700s and 1800s, when winters were supposed to be more harsh. Found this interesting link: https://texasalmanac.com/topics/environment/significant-weather-1700s-and-1800s
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
This! Even down our way, I wonder if we should include some short season seeds or those that do well in cooler climates....seems odd to even think that. A small piece of land with some fruit and nut trees would be nice for future generations, too. I'm doing a bit of research into Texas weather in the 1700s and 1800s, when winters were supposed to be more harsh. Found this interesting link: https://texasalmanac.com/topics/environment/significant-weather-1700s-and-1800s
I would suggest in your location, that you look for seeds and trees that either have a shorter growing season (but it will still probably be hot) and/or are able to withstand both cold and heat (trees, over-wintering vegetables/herbs).

Also get a backup greenhouse or even old windows made into "bed covers" that can be put over seeds to extend the growing season and also used to protect some plants (like carrots) that might go a few more weeks with a cover in the Fall.

Of course, it depends on what part of Texas, further North is going to be more affected than further South, but both are likely to get short but hot growing season/much longer and heavier Winters.

A few wet loving plants isn't a bad idea, climatic science isn't exact and is really unreliable when you get to the macro-level of how a global event (even a nasty large volcanic eruption) might affect YOUR back yard.
 

von Koehler

Veteran Member
Here's a reconstruction of past climate changes-alternating periods of warmth and cold ages-and their effects on humanity.

Note what happened in 784 A.D.; over a third of Europeans died from cold, starvation, and diseases.

Every cold age saw the prevailing Chinese dynasty fall; the current People's Republic will not be an exception.

http://www.maddogslair.com/uploads/7/4/4/5/74457609/928824141.png



Even within cold periods there were drastic swings in temperatures [both highs and lows] and precipitation during the growing season. Developing your greenhouses, loop tunnels, raised beds, etc., is essential to growing your own food. Basically forget about field grown grain crops: wheat yields and protein levels are already under stress. During Little Ice Age, potatoes and other root vegetables, were the mainstay crops.

FA
 

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Rayku

Sanity is not statistical
Here are some examples of LTE. The samples were cut out of what was left of a north sea wind tower and processed at the reported temperature of occurrence.

This one was weld straps out of the last can before the turbine/generator.


These charpy impact samples were cut out of the base can.


At -20F standard A36 carbon steel can become brittle. Strongly advise not over looking the importance of this.
 

von Koehler

Veteran Member
Should be Weather, not War

Somehow the thread is classified under WAR, which was not my intent.

Could a mod change it to Weather?

FA
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Attempting to connect volcanic activity in that manner is misleading to the extreme.
There probably is SOME connections, things do cool down after large eruptions and a gigantic one like Tambora was an enough to create The Year Without a Summer in 1816 [not 1916]; but that effect only lasted a few years; I suspect it is a complicated dance with volcanoes, solar cycles, the position of the Earth's Tilt towards away from the sun, the Earths 25,000 year procession of the Equinoxes, ocean currents and possibly a few other "members of the chorus" that sometimes make a "full" Ice Age.

I suspect it takes only two or three dance partners to make a "mini Ice Age" of 20 to 500 years.
 
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von Koehler

Veteran Member
Attempting to connect volcanic activity in that manner is misleading to the extreme.
On the contrary, there is a growing body of evidence that during periods of weakening solar winds cosmic ray levels increase and effect the Earth's geology.

Of course, you can believe whatever you want but historical facts speak for themselves.

You might want to research "Year without a Summer."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

It happened during the Dalton Minimum.

FA
 
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von Koehler

Veteran Member
There probably is SOME connections, things do cool down after large eruptions and a gigantic one like Tambora was an enough to create The Year Without a Summer in 1916; but that effect only lasted a few years; I suspect it is a complicated dance with volcanoes, solar cycles, the position of the Earth's Tilt towards away from the sun, the Earths 25,000 year procession of the Equinoxes, ocean currents and possibly a few other "members of the chorus" that sometimes make a "full" Ice Age.

I suspect it takes only two or three dance partners to make a "mini Ice Age" of 20 to 500 years.
Melodi,

You have a typo in this post: it happened in 1816, not 1916.

FA
 

Rayku

Sanity is not statistical
On the contrary, there is a growing body of evidence that during periods of weakening solar winds cosmic ray levels increase and effect the Earth's geology.

Of course, you can believe whatever you want but historical facts speak for themselves.

You might want to research "Year without a Summer."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

FA
Ive heard the 'growing body of evidence' arguments before. It's the same argument global warming acolytes used. Show me this 'body of evidence'. Seems a bit foolhardy to buy into the same argument in reverse given the empirically proven false assertion of the same nature presented for AGW.

The only part of that correct is the increase in interstellar sourced cosmic ionizing particles and gamma/xrays.
 

Freeholder

This too shall pass.
Another thing that gets brittle in extreme cold is the insulation on wiring. May not matter much to your house wiring, but the wiring inside of vehicles will shatter and cause shorts. Also the headliner in your vehicle will shatter if touched. And plastic trim on the outside will pop off if you take the vehicle from a warm garage to extremely cold outside temperatures.

Also, you will get mounds of frost built up on the heads of the nails in your walls, unless your walls are double-studded in such a way that there is a thermal break between the inside set of studs and the outside set. Even double-pane windows will get thick ice on the inside, from frozen condensation. Water pipes underground need to be at least four feet deep and have insulation around them (don't depend on heat tapes -- that only works as long as the electricity works).

Take your car batteries inside the house to keep them warm if it gets colder than thirty below (F) unless you have an engine block heater plugged in (and that also depends on electricity). Have some way to heat the engine so it will start. My brothers and my ex figured out that a propane flame thrower, with the flame directed into two lengths of stove pipe but only heat with no flame coming out the other end, worked well (after one of my brothers burned up two engines!). There are probably other possibilities; a partially-underground and semi-heated garage would suffice.

If you have the opportunity to build a house or a barn, make it partially underground, earth-bermed and with a thick sod roof. It will require a lot less fuel to keep it warm in the winter and cool in the summer (except in the hottest humid parts of the Southeastern US, where an underground dwelling will be uncomfortable in the summer). A south-facing attached greenhouse will help heat the house in the winter and will provide a semi-heated space for starting seedlings. Airlock entrances provide a place to leave your snow-covered or wet and muddy outer gear.

Kathleen
 

von Koehler

Veteran Member
Ive heard the 'growing body of evidence' arguments before. It's the same argument global warming acolytes used. Show me this 'body of evidence'. Seems a bit foolhardy to buy into the same argument in reverse given the empirically proven false assertion of the same nature presented for AGW.

The only part of that correct is the increase in interstellar sourced cosmic ionizing particles and gamma/xrays.
I suggest you research this yourself; I have no inclination to waste any of my time educating you. It's available on the web and in published papers. These volcanic eruptions are historical facts that occured during cold periods.



FA
 

Rayku

Sanity is not statistical
Another thing that gets brittle in extreme cold is the insulation on wiring. May not matter much to your house wiring, but the wiring inside of vehicles will shatter and cause shorts. Also the headliner in your vehicle will shatter if touched. And plastic trim on the outside will pop off if you take the vehicle from a warm garage to extremely cold outside temperatures.

Also, you will get mounds of frost built up on the heads of the nails in your walls, unless your walls are double-studded in such a way that there is a thermal break between the inside set of studs and the outside set. Even double-pane windows will get thick ice on the inside, from frozen condensation. Water pipes underground need to be at least four feet deep and have insulation around them (don't depend on heat tapes -- that only works as long as the electricity works).

Take your car batteries inside the house to keep them warm if it gets colder than thirty below (F) unless you have an engine block heater plugged in (and that also depends on electricity). Have some way to heat the engine so it will start. My brothers and my ex figured out that a propane flame thrower, with the flame directed into two lengths of stove pipe but only heat with no flame coming out the other end, worked well (after one of my brothers burned up two engines!). There are probably other possibilities; a partially-underground and semi-heated garage would suffice.

If you have the opportunity to build a house or a barn, make it partially underground, earth-bermed and with a thick sod roof. It will require a lot less fuel to keep it warm in the winter and cool in the summer (except in the hottest humid parts of the Southeastern US, where an underground dwelling will be uncomfortable in the summer). A south-facing attached greenhouse will help heat the house in the winter and will provide a semi-heated space for starting seedlings. Airlock entrances provide a place to leave your snow-covered or wet and muddy outer gear.

Kathleen
All good points.
 

Rayku

Sanity is not statistical
I suggest you research this yourself; I have no inclination to waste any of my time educating you. It's available on the web and in published papers.

FA
I have researched it extensively, and this is the goto counter argument when ask to prove it.
Oh well have fun with your bias.
 

Nowski

Veteran Member
Two graphs showing the previous minimums.

There are great resources online now,
and everything that I have read so far,
indicates that the start of a cooling cycle,
not only on the Earth, but through out
the entire solar system.

Please be safe everyone, and please arm up.


Regards to all deplorables.
Nowski
 

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von Koehler

Veteran Member
What currently is being debated is how LONG and how SEVERE the present cooling trend will be.

Some say the next three solar cycles; other say a bit longer and deeper.

The range seems to be about thirty to fifty years.

FA
 

von Koehler

Veteran Member
I have researched it extensively, and this is the goto counter argument when ask to prove it.
Oh well have fun with your bias.
From a research point of view, the proposed cooling thesis will be easy to prove or disprove: either it gets cooler as predicted or not.

Keep warm.

FA
 

Rayku

Sanity is not statistical
From a research point of view, the proposed cooling thesis will be easy to prove or disprove: either it gets cooler as predicted or not.

Keep warm.

FA
You misinterpreted my comments. Cooling is definitely coming if trends continue. What I disagree with is the premise of it being a source of volcanic activity.
 

von Koehler

Veteran Member
You misinterpreted my comments. Cooling is definitely coming if trends continue. What I disagree with is the premise of it being a source of volcanic activity.
Apparently you misinterpreted my posts: I never said cooling causes changes in volcanic eruptions. It is caused by a weakening solar wind which defects less incoming cosmic rays from reaching the Earth. Both effects [cooling and eruptions] tend to occur at about the same time due to reduced solar irradiance.

FA
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
All the minimums in the past have nothing in common with this one...7.6 billion mouths to feed and warm. This is a verifiable, repeatable natural process. It will come down to food production and where the farming locations will be.

I'm 56, will this affect my generation much, maybe not...but it will affect my grandchildren. The inheritance I will leave them will be long term storage food and seeds.
Ice ages can come on as suddenly as five years with massive ice build up around 15-20 years. So you are still young enough that it could affect you.
 
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