ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

W

Walrus

Veteran Member
Oreally said:
i just had a short talk with a univ kid friend.

they are all talking about how many rifles they would need for an effective résistance movement.

i have read estimates that there are 3 million or so illegal weapons in country, he was saying that the kids, from all over Ukraine, think they need an additional 5 mil from US and EU to mount a effective resistance.

i understand the fear in Moscow from the NATO deployments in Rumania and Poland, but the people here absolutely do not want to be ruled from Moscow again.

for ex, they even have a different word for what we call 'vodka' that it is preferred you use. lol.

'горілка'.

some of which of an excellent variety, i am slowly sipping tonight.
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You remind me of something I didn't know before working in Russia. I grew very fond of borscht and usually ended up making a bowl of it as one of my daily meals. In Russia, it's sort of the equivalent of chili in that there are so many different ways of making it but all of them are tasty!

I was told by a Ukrainian-born colleague that borscht is actually of Ukrainian origin and the dish's proper name in Russian was "skee" (or something like that). I thought that was kind of odd because I'd never heard of nor read the word "skee" in a restaurant; it was always borscht. Oh well.... skee or borscht. It's addictive.
 
Sooth

Sooth

Veteran Member
So, Emperor Biden threatens Russia/Putin and Putin responds with over one hundred thousand troops and tanks and missiles and logistical support. And the university kids wonder how many rifles it will take to repel the Russian Army, Air Force, Navy launched missiles, et al.

In the Army Advanced course and War College, Ukraine might lead a discussion concerning failure to grasp the concept. If Putin feels that he has no choice but military engagement, he will go all in. No half measures until it is over. In any war with Russia, Ukraine infrastructure, society, military will be destroyed. Damage to Russia, minimal.

“Russia will destroy Ukraine within 10 minutes, eliminating key command centers”, - a proud tweet by Russia’s biggest state propaganda agency RIA Novosti. Happy New Year from Moscow.

Thousands of troops on the line on both sides. Cold, bored, scared, nervous. And the impossible happens. Somebody sends a round down range. And somebody fires back. And all hell breaks loose. Or Biden thinks he is going to show that Russian thug Corn Pop a thing or two and orders something stupid. And his idiot military leaders carry out the order.

Many ways it could start. Very few ways to get it stopped.
War is ugly and not good for women, children or other living things.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Biden says he warned Putin of 'heavy price' over Ukraine
December 31, 20212:39 PM CST
Last Updated 3 minutes ago

3-4 minutes


U.S. President Joe Biden talks virtually with service members, from the Eisenhower Executive Office Building's South Court Auditorium at the White House, during an event with first lady Jill Biden, in Washington, U.S., December 25, 2021. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

WILMINGTON, Del., Dec 31 (Reuters) - President Joe Biden said on Friday he told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that a move on Ukraine will draw sanctions and an increased U.S. presence in Europe, where tensions are high after Russia's military buildup at the border.
The U.S. and Russian leaders exchanged warnings over Ukraine in a 50-minute call on Thursday to address Russian military actions. read more
"I made clear to President Putin that if he makes any more moves, if he goes into Ukraine, we will have severe sanctions. We will increase our presence in Europe, with our NATO allies, and there will be a heavy price to pay for it," Biden told reporters as he left a Wilmington, Delaware, restaurant.

Biden says Putin agreed on "three major conferences" next month with senior staff to help find a resolution and said he expected progress from those negotiations. However, he added, "I made it clear that it only could work if he de-escalated."
Asked if Moscow faces sanctions if it kept troops on the border, Biden said, "I'm not going to negotiate here in public but we made it clear that he cannot - emphasize cannot - move on Ukraine."

Biden will speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday, a White house official said earlier on Friday.
He will reaffirm support for Ukraine, discuss Russia’s military buildup and review preparations for diplomatic efforts to calm the situation in the region, the official said.

The Biden-Putin exchange set the stage for lower-level engagement between the countries that includes the U.S.-Russia security meeting on Jan. 9-10, followed by a Russia-NATO session on Jan. 12, and a broader conference including Moscow, Washington and other European countries on Jan. 13.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken sought to lay the groundwork for those talks on Friday in calls with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and others, the State Department said.
In conversations with the foreign ministers of Canada and Italy, Blinken discussed a united response to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine.
www.reuters.com

Biden says he warned Putin of 'heavy price' over Ukraine

President Joe Biden said on Friday he told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that a move on Ukraine will draw sanctions and an increased U.S. presence in Europe, where tensions are high after Russia's military buildup at the border.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com


jward said:

Steve Herman
@W7VOA
1h

According to the @WhiteHouse, on Sunday @POTUSplans to speak by phone with
@ZelenskyyUa
On the call, @POTUS is to reaffirm US support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of #Ukraine, “discuss Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s borders, and review preparations for upcoming diplomatic engagements to help de-escalate the situation in the region.”

.
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jward

jward

passin' thru
Ukrainian multimedia platform for broadcasting
Friday, 31 December 2021, 23:14






Russia continues to move troops to Ukraine border - CIT

Russia continues to move troops to Ukraine border - CIT
31.12.2021 11:39


Russia continues to send its troops to the border with Ukraine as the earlier discovered camps are growing, new camps are set up, while tanks and howitzers are joined by sophisticated air defense systems.

Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), a group of independent Russian investigators, reported this on December 30, according to Ukrinform.
"As new virtual summits and talks with the U.S., NATO and OSCE are being announced, Russian forces keep arriving into border regions. Open-source data shows how the earlier discovered camps are growing, new camps are set up, while tanks and howitzers are joined by sophisticated air defense systems," the article said.
According to CIT, during the past month, troops and/or vehicles were being transferred more actively into regions to the north-east of Ukraine – the regions do not border the "rebel" territories in Eastern Ukraine outside government control.

Read also: Biden calls on Putin to de-escalate tensions with Ukraine - White House
The Russian forces are being concentrated in various areas, including Klintsy and Klimovo in Bryansk region, less than 50 km and 10 km respectively from the Ukrainian border.
Apart from the staging areas that were discovered earlier, at least one new area has been pointed out at the Postoyalye Dvory training ground in Kursk region.

In addition, an increase of vehicle concentrations is also noted near Valuyki, Belgorod region (10 kilometers from the Ukrainian border).
There has also been an increase of Russian forces presence in Crimea.
Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov said on December 30 that Russia now cannot physically carry out a large-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to him, there is a "small increase" in Russia's military presence at the border, but it "is not too critical for us" and the situation is under control.
www.ukrinform.net

Russia continues to move troops to Ukraine border - CIT

Russia continues to send its troops to the border with Ukraine as the earlier discovered camps are growing, new camps are set up, while tanks and howitzers are joined by sophisticated air defense systems. — Ukrinform.
www.ukrinform.net www.ukrinform.net
 
AlfaMan

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
After the talks with Comrade Joe and Putin, sadly the war die is cast. Lavrov has effectively shot down any good will generated after the call between the US and Russia (playing to the Russian conservatives and hard line leaning people) .
Lavrov's statements were calculated. essentially Russia got the last laugh.
The Sunday call between Zelenksy and Biden is going to be pointless. It will probably be the last call Zelensky makes as the president of a soverign Ukraine.

Because the latest troop and equipment movements in Belgorod Oblast aren't movements to extend the bridgehead in the Crimea or Luhansk. Those movements are aimed square at Kiev-a decapitation invasion.

Here's a neat little site that keeps up with current movements in Ukraine.

Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
 
W

Walrus

Veteran Member
danielboon said:
Spoke to
@SecBlinken
on the importance of de-escalation of #Russia’s considerable military build-up in & around #Ukraine. #NATO stands united. We are prepared for dialogue in the NATO-Russia Council on Jan 12.
]/QUOTE]
Plus this nugget:
WILMINGTON, Del., Dec 31 (Reuters) - President Joe Biden said on Friday he told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that a move on Ukraine will draw sanctions and an increased U.S. presence in Europe, where tensions are high after Russia's military buildup at the border.
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And if Vlad doesn't listen, why .... I'll CALL HIM OUT BY NAME! Boy, that'll show him.

And if that doesn't catch his attention, by golly, he'll well .... he'll RECALL AOC from Florida and send her to Moscow on Air Force 23 to give them a good what for. If nothing else, it'll distract the Russkies for a few days as everyone will be jostling to pin the many meritorious medals for "Faithfully Serving the Communist Cause" with several longetivity stars on her chest.
 
CTFIREBATTCHIEF

CTFIREBATTCHIEF

Veteran Member
Sooth said:
So, Emperor Biden threatens Russia/Putin and Putin responds with over one hundred thousand troops and tanks and missiles and logistical support. And the university kids wonder how many rifles it will take to repel the Russian Army, Air Force, Navy launched missiles, et al.

In the Army Advanced course and War College, Ukraine might lead a discussion concerning failure to grasp the concept. If Putin feels that he has no choice but military engagement, he will go all in. No half measures until it is over. In any war with Russia, Ukraine infrastructure, society, military will be destroyed. Damage to Russia, minimal.

“Russia will destroy Ukraine within 10 minutes, eliminating key command centers”, - a proud tweet by Russia’s biggest state propaganda agency RIA Novosti. Happy New Year from Moscow.

Thousands of troops on the line on both sides. Cold, bored, scared, nervous. And the impossible happens. Somebody sends a round down range. And somebody fires back. And all hell breaks loose. Or Biden thinks he is going to show that Russian thug Corn Pop a thing or two and orders something stupid. And his idiot military leaders carry out the order.

Many ways it could start. Very few ways to get it stopped.
War is ugly and not good for women, children or other living things.
Click to expand...
and this my friends is how shite spins out of control with no way to stop it until the canned sunshine stops it for us. There are idiots out there now with their fingers on the buttons thinking that nuclear war is just another damned video game with a reset button.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
CTFIREBATTCHIEF said:
and this my friends is how shite spins out of control with no way to stop it until the canned sunshine stops it for us. There are idiots out there now with their fingers on the buttons thinking that nuclear war is just another damned video game with a reset button.
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In a nuclear war between Russia and the USA, expect at least a dozen or more nuclear hits on US cities. Life will not be the same again. I would think that DC (the political capital), NYC (the financial capital) would be gone.
 
CTFIREBATTCHIEF

CTFIREBATTCHIEF

Veteran Member
northern watch said:
In a nuclear war between Russia and the USA, expect at least a dozen or more nuclear hits on US cities. Life will not be the same again. I would think that DC (the political capital), NYC (the financial capital) would be gone.
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the "smoking holes in the ground" will be numerous and not limited to ukraine that is for sure. the more that pudding cup opens his pie hole, the worse it gets. somebody needs to shut that nitwit up
 
colonel holman

colonel holman

Veteran Member
northern watch said:
In a nuclear war between Russia and the USA, expect at least a dozen or more nuclear hits on US cities. Life will not be the same again. I would think that DC (the political capital), NYC (the financial capital) would be gone.
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MAD will quickly unfold, deadman switches and standing orders for boomers.
Consider the incompetence and panic among those in charge of the launch switches.
 
T

Techwreck

Veteran Member
I keep thinking about the fact that the same guy who was on a phone call and said, "Let's go Brandon, I agree", was the same guy on a call with Vladimir Putin to try to negotiate an off ramp from eminent war that could quite easily go nuclear.

Of course we've got Austin and Milley advising slow Joe, so what could possibly go wrong?

The Russians must just be shaking their heads at the cadre of corrupt and inept fools who were installed in the US.

I know I am.
 
T

TFergeson

Non Solum Simul Stare
colonel holman said:
MAD will quickly unfold, deadman switches and standing orders for boomers.
Consider the incompetence and panic among those in charge of the launch switches.
Click to expand...

From what I read the boomers don't have deadman switches or independent launch authority anymore. They removed the boomer commanders ability to independently launch under Clinton I believe because they were afraid of "rogue commanders". I think everything requires input from high command now
 
W

Walrus

Veteran Member
naegling62 said:
If we're gonna play USSR#2 we should give Russia the Donetsk Republic and Crimea and we walk away with Western UKR, Poland and the Baltics and call it a day.
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That seems a reasonable approach. The sticky point that gums up that theory is the invitation issued to join NATO and the subsequent basing in Ukraine of ABMs. That's where Putin has drawn the line.

Rescind that invitation and you've most likely got a deal even without the Donbass.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
TFergeson said:
From what I read the boomers don't have deadman switches or independent launch authority anymore. They removed the boomer commanders ability to independently launch under Clinton I believe because they were afraid of "rogue commanders". I think everything requires input from high command now
Click to expand...
Good Luck with that!
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Again, moon phases have been rendered fairly inconsequential by modern technology. More to the point, are the literal conditions on the ground.. the spring thaw is--- March/April?

Then there are the Olympics to pencil in your calendar, Orthodox Christmas on the 7th and those 3 conversations scheduled for this month. . .

I did just read "someone" proffer an opinion that even the frozen roads for transport are no longer the critical need they once were, due to a handful of decent roads that could be used; he thought that even though they're heavily protected right now, that they could and would still be commandeered should Russia decide to roll :: shrug :: I sure hope that is wrong too





 
AlfaMan

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
northern watch said:
In a nuclear war between Russia and the USA, expect at least a dozen or more nuclear hits on US cities. Life will not be the same again. I would think that DC (the political capital), NYC (the financial capital) would be gone.
Click to expand...

If the p*ssing match gets rolling hard; DC will probably get hit with 25MT total, or so I've been told by a few folks who practice this craft. And more than likely hit by sub launched missiles; so as to catch as many .gov decision makers in place as possible. COG (continuity of government) isn't effective if the main players and their designated alternates are both caught and killed in the same strike.

If Russia targets the US with a nuke strike, more than likely it will lead with a countervalue attack. Kill off as much of the functioning .gov as possible. That would mean strikes on DC, Offutt AFB, Whiteman AFB, Cheyenne mountain, Site R, Camp David, Mount Weather, the cog facility in Denver, Barksdale AFB, Thule, the NORAD site at Clear AFB, Otis ANGB, Beale AFB. That would take most of the airborne warning ability and COG sites offline (IE smoking radioactive holes in the ground).

We would be leaderless and blind deaf and dumb at that point. The Russian could stop and ask for us to surrender; or they could send a second round of ICBMs in a counterforce scenario. Take out .mil bases, navy ports and bases, plants that make military equipment, etc.

One thing to remember-in both scenarios I've posted here all these locations are either in cities, close to cities. The civilian cost of just a limited strike (say, the countervalue portion) could number in the millions of dead.
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
AlfaMan said:
If the p*ssing match gets rolling hard; DC will probably get hit with 25MT total, or so I've been told by a few folks who practice this craft. And more than likely hit by sub launched missiles; so as to catch as many .gov decision makers in place as possible. COG (continuity of government) isn't effective if the main players and their designated alternates are both caught and killed in the same strike.

If Russia targets the US with a nuke strike, more than likely it will lead with a countervalue attack. Kill off as much of the functioning .gov as possible. That would mean strikes on DC, Offutt AFB, Whiteman AFB, Cheyenne mountain, Site R, Camp David, Mount Weather, the cog facility in Denver, Barksdale AFB, Thule, the NORAD site at Clear AFB, Otis ANGB, Beale AFB. That would take most of the airborne warning ability and COG sites offline (IE smoking radioactive holes in the ground).

We would be leaderless and blind deaf and dumb at that point. The Russian could stop and ask for us to surrender; or they could send a second round of ICBMs in a counterforce scenario. Take out .mil bases, navy ports and bases, plants that make military equipment, etc.

One thing to remember-in both scenarios I've posted here all these locations are either in cities, close to cities. The civilian cost of just a limited strike (say, the countervalue portion) could number in the millions of dead.
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Yup that covers it and most people have no clue to what is coming
 
Red Baron

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
AlfaMan said:
If Russia targets the US with a nuke strike, more than likely it will lead with a countervalue attack. Kill off as much of the functioning .gov as possible. That would mean strikes on DC, Offutt AFB, Whiteman AFB, Cheyenne mountain, Site R, Camp David, Mount Weather, the cog facility in Denver, Barksdale AFB, Thule, the NORAD site at Clear AFB, Otis ANGB, Beale AFB. That would take most of the airborne warning ability and COG sites offline (IE smoking radioactive holes in the ground).
Click to expand...

Is Denver International Airport (DEN) still considered to be the alternative U.S. capitol in a Continuity Of Government scenario?

One more target to add to the list of first strike options.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
AlfaMan said:
If the p*ssing match gets rolling hard; DC will probably get hit with 25MT total, or so I've been told by a few folks who practice this craft. And more than likely hit by sub launched missiles; so as to catch as many .gov decision makers in place as possible. COG (continuity of government) isn't effective if the main players and their designated alternates are both caught and killed in the same strike.

If Russia targets the US with a nuke strike, more than likely it will lead with a countervalue attack. Kill off as much of the functioning .gov as possible. That would mean strikes on DC, Offutt AFB, Whiteman AFB, Cheyenne mountain, Site R, Camp David, Mount Weather, the cog facility in Denver, Barksdale AFB, Thule, the NORAD site at Clear AFB, Otis ANGB, Beale AFB. That would take most of the airborne warning ability and COG sites offline (IE smoking radioactive holes in the ground).

We would be leaderless and blind deaf and dumb at that point. The Russian could stop and ask for us to surrender; or they could send a second round of ICBMs in a counterforce scenario. Take out .mil bases, navy ports and bases, plants that make military equipment, etc.

One thing to remember-in both scenarios I've posted here all these locations are either in cities, close to cities. The civilian cost of just a limited strike (say, the countervalue portion) could number in the millions of dead.
Click to expand...

As I've noted before, within that scenario is a potential "half step" wherein "direct action" is applied against "key" elements of the Triumvirate with the goal to get those empty seats filled with different players. That's based upon MHO and past FSB/GRU action against ex-pat Russians the Kermlin considers a threat or traitors.

Expanding such options to "enemies of peace" in the mind of Putin and his inner circle IMHO would be a natural evolution of the process and it is something that could be "masked" with the current pandemic.

Yeah I probably read too much....
 
T

Techwreck

Veteran Member
Kiev doesn't seem like they want to do anything to ratchet this down.
Whether that's their idea or ours, I don't know, but shutting off access to Russian vessels is just another poke.

When/if Vlad gives up on working this out peacefully, if he hasn't already......
Hopefully the scheduled talks will bear fruit, or I fear some of the speculation and analysis here may not be far off.

As far as targets of a nuclear strike, does anyone know if the Pantex Plant near Amarillo would be a target, or something they'd be careful not to hit?
 
N

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Prolly want to add RADC (Rome Air Dev Command) or whatever they are calling it these days. It's a satellite to Magic Mountain. One of the operations that never moved from Griffiss.
 
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