Thank you for clarifying to those that refuse to look at the reality of the situation.
ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
Some good points.
Ukraine does not have the luxury of fighting without considering western thought and coverage. Without western weapons they would likely have lost a lot more territory.
Russia has advanced but its now an ebb and flow fighting for individual cities. I still think Russia taking land and holding land for the long term are 2 different questions with likely different answers.
jward
passin' thru
Ukraine – the situation (July 5, 2022)
After the fall of Lysychansk, the issue going forward is qualified manpower and things look bad for Ukraine
by Uwe Parpart July 5, 2022
Ukrainian troops: Are they reaching the end of the line in the Donbas? Photo: WikiCommons
Summary/overview
On July 3, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that Russian forces (and the “People’s Militia of the Lugansk People’s Republic”) had established full control over the city of Lysychansk and a number of nearby settlements, the largest of which are Novodruzhesk to the northeast and Maloriazantseve on the southeast side of Lysychansk.
After initially denying the fall of Lysychansk, the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) confirmed the news within hours of the Russian announcement.
The issue was settled rapidly. On July 1 evening, Russian forces moved in force on Lysychansk from the northeast and southwest and reached the city center by mid-day July 2.
By mid-day July 3, the 180 square-kilometers area from the Donets River to the line of Bilohorivka in the north to the vicinity of Verkhnokamianka due south indicated in our map of June 30 (and roughly coincident with the Luhansk – Donetsk oblasts border) had been occupied and cleared of Ukrainian forces.
June 30 map with The Situation’s predicted line.
The current map, as The Situation had predicted.
Where they came from: the June 23 map
In its evening report of July 4, the UGS reports that “Russian forces are pushing the Ukrainian military to the Siversk-Fedorivka-Bakhmut line.”
The town of Siversk is regarded by analysts as the next Russian target. We regard another pincer move from the Popasna region north and the Lyman region south as equally likely.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, air defense systems have intercepted eight multiple rocket launcher systems’ (MLRS) shells, including four rockets from the US HIMARS multiple launch rocket system in the Stakhanov region of the Luhansk oblast.
This report is unconfirmed by independent sources, but it might indicate that the first HIMARS systems have arrived near front lines.
There is a substantial increase in Russian artillery fire in the Kharkiv region. More likely than not, this is an attempt to tie down Ukrainian forces in the area. We expect the next major Russian move will take place in the south, in the Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv regions.
Assessment
The rapid Russian victory at Lysychansk and the substantial territorial gains within little more than 48 hours have surprised most observers.
Why be surprised? The Russian offensive in the eastern parts of the Donbas salient commenced in late May after the victory in the battle of Rubizhne.
The direct Russian ground assault on Severodonetsk, the administrative center of Luhansk oblast started on May 27. At the time, the city had not been encircled and attack proved a hard slog.
Key to the Russian capture of Severodonetsk a month later on June 24 proved two flanking maneuvers and patience and trust in Russian literally age-old tactics of overwhelming artillery fire, even direct fire as practiced in World War II.
The flanking maneuvers were 1) the surprise move into the Popasna region and the move into Lyman which allowed very substantial disruption of Ukrainian supply lines and 2) the systematic closing of two sub-salients of the Donbas main salient in the Hirske-Zolote and then the Borivske direction.
Not only did these Russian moves isolate Severodonetsk, but they also prepared the attack on Lysychansk and in the process led to the elimination of at least 2000 Ukrainian troops from the battlefields.
On June 22, the UGS said they had lost control of the settlements of Toshkivka and Myrna Dolyna south of Lysychansk. On June 23, Russian forces cut off and surrounded the towns of Hirske and Zolote and captured them by the next day.
On June 24, Ukrainian Luhansk Governor Haidai announced that Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from the city of Severodonetsk.
On June 25, Russian forces took full control of the city. But as noted, this was a month-long war of attrition. By contrast, the battle of Lysychansk and capture by Russian forces of surrounding territory took less than a week.
The issue going forward is qualified manpower, indeed, manpower, period. In a war of attrition, other things being equal, the side with the larger manpower reserves wins.
Continual claims by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, by other Ukrainian officials and by US and NATO officials that it’s weapons systems that matter – more HIMARS, more howitzers, more tanks – are, militarily speaking, nonsense talk. In fact, worse than that: they’re a cover-up for expected failure and an incompetent net assessment.
We commend to readers a competent piece of writing by a former US Marine Colonel and trainer of Ukrainian forces entitled, “Timing is Not on Kyiv’s Side.” It’s as scary as it is sad and should be read everywhere from the White House to the bunkers at Mons. The publisher is the Modern War Institute at West Point, the US Military Academy.
asiatimes.com
After the fall of Lysychansk, the issue going forward is qualified manpower and things look bad for Ukraine
by Uwe Parpart July 5, 2022
Ukrainian troops: Are they reaching the end of the line in the Donbas? Photo: WikiCommons
Summary/overview
On July 3, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that Russian forces (and the “People’s Militia of the Lugansk People’s Republic”) had established full control over the city of Lysychansk and a number of nearby settlements, the largest of which are Novodruzhesk to the northeast and Maloriazantseve on the southeast side of Lysychansk.
After initially denying the fall of Lysychansk, the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) confirmed the news within hours of the Russian announcement.
The issue was settled rapidly. On July 1 evening, Russian forces moved in force on Lysychansk from the northeast and southwest and reached the city center by mid-day July 2.
By mid-day July 3, the 180 square-kilometers area from the Donets River to the line of Bilohorivka in the north to the vicinity of Verkhnokamianka due south indicated in our map of June 30 (and roughly coincident with the Luhansk – Donetsk oblasts border) had been occupied and cleared of Ukrainian forces.
June 30 map with The Situation’s predicted line.
The current map, as The Situation had predicted.
Where they came from: the June 23 map
In its evening report of July 4, the UGS reports that “Russian forces are pushing the Ukrainian military to the Siversk-Fedorivka-Bakhmut line.”
The town of Siversk is regarded by analysts as the next Russian target. We regard another pincer move from the Popasna region north and the Lyman region south as equally likely.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, air defense systems have intercepted eight multiple rocket launcher systems’ (MLRS) shells, including four rockets from the US HIMARS multiple launch rocket system in the Stakhanov region of the Luhansk oblast.
This report is unconfirmed by independent sources, but it might indicate that the first HIMARS systems have arrived near front lines.
There is a substantial increase in Russian artillery fire in the Kharkiv region. More likely than not, this is an attempt to tie down Ukrainian forces in the area. We expect the next major Russian move will take place in the south, in the Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv regions.
Assessment
The rapid Russian victory at Lysychansk and the substantial territorial gains within little more than 48 hours have surprised most observers.
Why be surprised? The Russian offensive in the eastern parts of the Donbas salient commenced in late May after the victory in the battle of Rubizhne.
The direct Russian ground assault on Severodonetsk, the administrative center of Luhansk oblast started on May 27. At the time, the city had not been encircled and attack proved a hard slog.
Key to the Russian capture of Severodonetsk a month later on June 24 proved two flanking maneuvers and patience and trust in Russian literally age-old tactics of overwhelming artillery fire, even direct fire as practiced in World War II.
The flanking maneuvers were 1) the surprise move into the Popasna region and the move into Lyman which allowed very substantial disruption of Ukrainian supply lines and 2) the systematic closing of two sub-salients of the Donbas main salient in the Hirske-Zolote and then the Borivske direction.
Not only did these Russian moves isolate Severodonetsk, but they also prepared the attack on Lysychansk and in the process led to the elimination of at least 2000 Ukrainian troops from the battlefields.
On June 22, the UGS said they had lost control of the settlements of Toshkivka and Myrna Dolyna south of Lysychansk. On June 23, Russian forces cut off and surrounded the towns of Hirske and Zolote and captured them by the next day.
On June 24, Ukrainian Luhansk Governor Haidai announced that Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from the city of Severodonetsk.
On June 25, Russian forces took full control of the city. But as noted, this was a month-long war of attrition. By contrast, the battle of Lysychansk and capture by Russian forces of surrounding territory took less than a week.
The issue going forward is qualified manpower, indeed, manpower, period. In a war of attrition, other things being equal, the side with the larger manpower reserves wins.
Continual claims by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, by other Ukrainian officials and by US and NATO officials that it’s weapons systems that matter – more HIMARS, more howitzers, more tanks – are, militarily speaking, nonsense talk. In fact, worse than that: they’re a cover-up for expected failure and an incompetent net assessment.
We commend to readers a competent piece of writing by a former US Marine Colonel and trainer of Ukrainian forces entitled, “Timing is Not on Kyiv’s Side.” It’s as scary as it is sad and should be read everywhere from the White House to the bunkers at Mons. The publisher is the Modern War Institute at West Point, the US Military Academy.
Ukraine – the situation (July 5, 2022)
Summary/overview On July 3, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that Russian forces (and the “People’s Militia of the Lugansk People’s Republic”) had established full control over the city of Ly…
asiatimes.com
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Finland seizes hundreds of Russian freight cars as EU sanctions bite
Reuters
July 5, 20225:47 AM EDT
Last Updated 4 hours ago
This content was produced in Russia, where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine
MOSCOW, July 5 (Reuters) - Finland has seized nearly a thousand freight cars belonging to Russian companies as a result of European Union sanctions, according to Finnish state-owned rail operator VR and a letter from Russia's rail monopoly seen by Reuters.
As Finland's VR moved to reduce railway traffic with Russia after the EU sanctioned Russian coal supplies in April, 865 rail cars from Russia were seized by bailiffs, according to the June 6 dated letter from Russian Railways to the Ministry of Transport.
Finnish bailiff authority told Reuters it has had frozen assets of a few dozen of Russian and Belarusian individuals and legal entities, including transportation firms, worth at least 82 million euros, to comply with EU sanctions.
VR's spokeswoman Taina Kuitunen confirmed by email that there were "around 800 units of sanctioned (freight) cars in Finland at the moment" and the company sought to return the non-seized ones to Russia as soon as possible.
VR's head of logistics told Finnish media in March that around 5,000 Russian rail cars were in Finland when it decided to suspend traffic, and while his company wanted to send them back, bailiffs ordered some to be seized.
The seized rail cars belong to companies either directly hit by EU sanctions or whose shareholders gave up their control because they got hit by sanctions after Russia sent its troops into Ukraine in late February.
Uralchem-Trans, whose former owner, Dmitry Mazepin, ceded control after coming under EU sanctions in March, did not reply to request for a comment, and the state leasing company GTLK, under EU sanctions itself, declined comment.
Rusagrotrans, part of Demetra Holding where sanctions-hit state bank VTB (VTBR.MM) ceded control to other investors in February, also declined comment.
The fourth company whose cars were seized, Alpha Leasing, has lodged an appeal to a Finnish court against an "unlawful" move by Finnish bailiffs, said Andrey Barkov, head of corporate business. Alpha Leasing is a unit of sanctions-hit Alfa Bank.
Russian Railways declined comment and the Ministry of Transport did not reply to a request for comment.
Reporting by Reuters and Anne Kauranen in Helsinki Editing by Tomasz Janowski
Finland seizes hundreds of Russian freight cars as EU sanctions bite | Reuters
Reuters
July 5, 20225:47 AM EDT
Last Updated 4 hours ago
This content was produced in Russia, where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine
MOSCOW, July 5 (Reuters) - Finland has seized nearly a thousand freight cars belonging to Russian companies as a result of European Union sanctions, according to Finnish state-owned rail operator VR and a letter from Russia's rail monopoly seen by Reuters.
As Finland's VR moved to reduce railway traffic with Russia after the EU sanctioned Russian coal supplies in April, 865 rail cars from Russia were seized by bailiffs, according to the June 6 dated letter from Russian Railways to the Ministry of Transport.
Finnish bailiff authority told Reuters it has had frozen assets of a few dozen of Russian and Belarusian individuals and legal entities, including transportation firms, worth at least 82 million euros, to comply with EU sanctions.
VR's spokeswoman Taina Kuitunen confirmed by email that there were "around 800 units of sanctioned (freight) cars in Finland at the moment" and the company sought to return the non-seized ones to Russia as soon as possible.
VR's head of logistics told Finnish media in March that around 5,000 Russian rail cars were in Finland when it decided to suspend traffic, and while his company wanted to send them back, bailiffs ordered some to be seized.
The seized rail cars belong to companies either directly hit by EU sanctions or whose shareholders gave up their control because they got hit by sanctions after Russia sent its troops into Ukraine in late February.
Uralchem-Trans, whose former owner, Dmitry Mazepin, ceded control after coming under EU sanctions in March, did not reply to request for a comment, and the state leasing company GTLK, under EU sanctions itself, declined comment.
Rusagrotrans, part of Demetra Holding where sanctions-hit state bank VTB (VTBR.MM) ceded control to other investors in February, also declined comment.
The fourth company whose cars were seized, Alpha Leasing, has lodged an appeal to a Finnish court against an "unlawful" move by Finnish bailiffs, said Andrey Barkov, head of corporate business. Alpha Leasing is a unit of sanctions-hit Alfa Bank.
Russian Railways declined comment and the Ministry of Transport did not reply to a request for comment.
Reporting by Reuters and Anne Kauranen in Helsinki Editing by Tomasz Janowski
Finland seizes hundreds of Russian freight cars as EU sanctions bite | Reuters
Since Putin never trusted the Oligarch’s and outside the internal security service they are the only real threat to his power he says Thank You very much.
Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
2h
Britain is poised to emulate Canada by authorizing the seizure of Russian assets to aid Ukraine's reconstruction Given the concentration of Russian oligarch wealth in Britain, this is a major step forward for the sanctions regime
Lest we forget the Chinese sent a hypersonic missile around the Earth twice and dropped it into a patch of ocean the size of a tennis court. There has been a mating of Russian rocket motor technology and Chinese computer guidance and targeting capabilities. At Mach 20 and terrain following distances there is nowhere on this planet that could not be obliterated in minutes. We have identified 9 substations in North America that if attacked by non-nuclear cruise missiles would put our lights out for 2 years. The shot heard around the world updated. Keep poking the Bear and taunting the Dragon and we will find ourselves in the 12th Century.
CaryC
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Doesn't seem to be working. But never fear, I'm a Churchill guy, "Never give up". LOL
But seriously, the Dniper River has always been the line for east and west slavs, and it has been used for ages as east and west Ukraine.
Kind of like figuring out where the line between Middle East, East, and Far East, is.
I figure it's a river or mountain range.
You are now free to go about your business.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Germany has fallen into Angela Merkel's trap!
Germany to Bail Out Energy Suppliers Ahead of Winter Without Russian Gas; Government, companies and households are bracing for shortages amid expectations that Moscow will cut its already throttled supply
Tuesday, July 5, 2022, 10:40 AM ET
By Bojan Pancevski and Georgi Kantchev
Wall Street Journal
BERLIN—Germany paved the way Tuesday for injecting billions of taxpayer money into embattled energy suppliers, as the country braces for a stop to Russian natural-gas imports—a scenario many economists think would trigger a severe recession.
Berlin said it was rewriting legislation going back to the 1970s oil shock, enabling the government to inject capital into energy companies that are struggling with rocketing gas prices and dwindling Russian supplies to ensure they keep delivering power and heat to companies and households.
The move is the latest in a battery of emergency measures to help manage an energy crisis in Europe’s largest economy this winter as the economic war unleashed by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine accelerates.
Berlin rushed to reduce its high reliance on Russian gas immediately after the invasion, but it wasn’t planning to be able to do entirely without these imports before 2024. With Moscow now throttling its supply to Germany, concern is growing that it could turn off the spigot entirely as early as this month.
“We must prepare for the situation to get worse…and do everything to maintain the basic supply and help the energy markets operate as long as possible in the coming winter, despite high prices and growing risks,” said Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister.
The new legislation comes after Germany’s Uniper SE, one of Europe’s largest utilities, asked for state support last week to stave off insolvency. Uniper is facing a liquidity crunch because dwindling Russian gas supplies are forcing it to buy from more expensive sources while not being able to pass on these costs under long-term contracts with its customers. Uniper, whose share price fell by nearly a quarter on Monday before recovering slightly Tuesday, was among the first in line for a state bailout, officials said.
Other possible measures in the cards include the rationing of gas to industry and hot water to households, the nationalization of Russian-owned energy assets in Germany such as pipelines and refineries, and fiscal support for consumers squeezed by gas prices that could soon rise about six times from their price a year ago, officials said.
While power companies are on the crisis’s front line, Germany’s vast manufacturing sector would also be severely hit by a sudden interruption in Russian gas supplies, executives said.
The fertilizer industry is particularly exposed to the current volatility because it uses gas as a raw material, said Christopher Profitlich, a spokesman for SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz GmbH, one of Germany’s leading fertilizer manufacturers.
“A shortage of gas would mean we would not be able to produce fertilizer, meaning that farmers would not be able to produce enough food, and this would push global prices up and create a shortage of foodstuffs,” Mr. Profitlich said.
SKW also produces the fuel additive AdBlue which is used by over 90% of trucks that make up Germany’s complex road-based logistical chains, as well by vehicles critical for emergency services and construction.
“Without AdBlue, engines would stand still,” Mr. Profitlich said.
At Bavaria-based porcelain maker Rosenthal GmbH, a stop in supplies would bring production to a complete standstill. White porcelain is typically made by heating materials in gas-fired chambers known as kilns temperatures over 2,000 degrees fahrenheit. Gas is currently the only energy source that can ensure that process, said Mads Ryder, Rosenthal’s chief executive.
“A cutback or even a halt to gas deliveries would mean that we would have to stop our entire production immediately and that would have considerable economic consequences for the company,” he said.
While the industry is exploring alternative sources like hydrogen, it would take at least 10 years before these offer a viable alternative, he said.
“There is very little creative freedom here in ceramics,” said René Holler, general manager of the German Association of the Ceramic Industry.
At brewer Brauerei C. & A. Veltins GmbH & Co. KG, gas is also an essential part of the whole beer production process.
The kettles for the brewing process are heated with the help of gas, which is also needed to achieve the necessary kettle pressure. The company then needs glass bottles, and natural gas is also indispensable in glass manufacturing. In total, Veltins says it would need 50 million bottles this year, whose costs are already up some 80% since April.
“To put it plainly: no beer without gas,” said Veltins spokesman Ulrich Biene.
The company, which has been brewing beer since 1824, is preparing for possible gas rationing by stocking up on heating oil to be able to keep up the operation for some limited time. Veltins has also ordered extra bottles and stashed them in crates in the brewery’s courtyard in the city of Grevenstein in case the supply chains break down.
Large German multinationals are also in a bind.
At chemicals giant BASF SE, a significant fall in gas supplies could lead to the closure of the world’s largest integrated chemical complex spanning some 200 plants. Such a shutdown would reverberate beyond the company, which sits at the beginning of most industrial supply chains, from cars to toothpaste. A throttling of BASF’s ammonia output, a key ingredient in fertilizers.
Henkel AG, the maker of consumer products including Persil laundry detergents, said it was looking at ways to switch to alternative energy sources and is considering increasing working from home options for employees to save on energy and heating costs.
German steelmaker Thyssenkrupp AG is heavily reliant on gas for its blast furnaces. “A switch from natural gas to oil or coal is not possible in our production processes, or only to a negligible extent,” the company said in a statement.
The company said it would halt some production processes If the gas supply dwindles, but it couldn’t rule out shutdowns or technical damage in the future.
“In Germany, prosperity has been secured by a strong industry. If the engine sputters now, the consequences are going to be dramatic,” said Mr. Holler of the ceramic industry association.
The main source of Russian gas in Germany is the Nord Stream undersea pipeline. Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC cut supplies through the pipeline to 40% of its capacity in June, blaming technical reasons related to western sanctions. The German government has called the move a hostile political act and officials fear Moscow won’t restart supplies after the pipeline is turned off July 11 for scheduled maintenance.
“We must brace ourselves for the fact that this situation won’t change in the foreseeable future…in other words: we stand before a historic challenge,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters Monday.
Shortly after Russia’s attack, Germany cut its reliance on Russian gas imports from 55% to about a third. But the bulk of its diversification effort relies on contracts that will not kick in before months, even years, making its economy particularly vulnerable this winter.
The government said it wants private gas consumption to fall 20% to get through the winter. The city of Hamburg said this week it could ration hot water for households in the event of a gas emergency. About half of Germany’s 40 million households use gas for heating and hot water.
The federal government already announced 30 billion euro in spending, equivalent to around $31 billion, to help the economy cope with the fallout from the war. But officials said the total amount of funding could exceed the 100 billion euro mark in the coming months if Russia completely cut off energy supplies.
Some of the funding could go to support consumers. While German law gives priority to households over industry should gas need rationing, many people may no longer be able to afford energy in the future, said Jens Südekum, a professor of economics at Heinrich Heine University in Düsseldorf.
A typical family of four paid 86 euros a month for gas last year. This winter, that expenditure could go up sixfold, Prof. Südekum said.
“If we keep consuming at normal levels, parts of the industry will have to be shut down and we will slide into a very severe recession,” he said. “The choice is between a milder and a severe recession.”
Write to Bojan Pancevski at bojan.pancevski@wsj.com and Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com
Germany to Bail Out Energy Suppliers Ahead of Winter Without Russian Gas - WSJ
Germany to Bail Out Energy Suppliers Ahead of Winter Without Russian Gas; Government, companies and households are bracing for shortages amid expectations that Moscow will cut its already throttled supply
Tuesday, July 5, 2022, 10:40 AM ET
By Bojan Pancevski and Georgi Kantchev
Wall Street Journal
BERLIN—Germany paved the way Tuesday for injecting billions of taxpayer money into embattled energy suppliers, as the country braces for a stop to Russian natural-gas imports—a scenario many economists think would trigger a severe recession.
Berlin said it was rewriting legislation going back to the 1970s oil shock, enabling the government to inject capital into energy companies that are struggling with rocketing gas prices and dwindling Russian supplies to ensure they keep delivering power and heat to companies and households.
The move is the latest in a battery of emergency measures to help manage an energy crisis in Europe’s largest economy this winter as the economic war unleashed by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine accelerates.
Berlin rushed to reduce its high reliance on Russian gas immediately after the invasion, but it wasn’t planning to be able to do entirely without these imports before 2024. With Moscow now throttling its supply to Germany, concern is growing that it could turn off the spigot entirely as early as this month.
“We must prepare for the situation to get worse…and do everything to maintain the basic supply and help the energy markets operate as long as possible in the coming winter, despite high prices and growing risks,” said Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister.
The new legislation comes after Germany’s Uniper SE, one of Europe’s largest utilities, asked for state support last week to stave off insolvency. Uniper is facing a liquidity crunch because dwindling Russian gas supplies are forcing it to buy from more expensive sources while not being able to pass on these costs under long-term contracts with its customers. Uniper, whose share price fell by nearly a quarter on Monday before recovering slightly Tuesday, was among the first in line for a state bailout, officials said.
Other possible measures in the cards include the rationing of gas to industry and hot water to households, the nationalization of Russian-owned energy assets in Germany such as pipelines and refineries, and fiscal support for consumers squeezed by gas prices that could soon rise about six times from their price a year ago, officials said.
While power companies are on the crisis’s front line, Germany’s vast manufacturing sector would also be severely hit by a sudden interruption in Russian gas supplies, executives said.
The fertilizer industry is particularly exposed to the current volatility because it uses gas as a raw material, said Christopher Profitlich, a spokesman for SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz GmbH, one of Germany’s leading fertilizer manufacturers.
“A shortage of gas would mean we would not be able to produce fertilizer, meaning that farmers would not be able to produce enough food, and this would push global prices up and create a shortage of foodstuffs,” Mr. Profitlich said.
SKW also produces the fuel additive AdBlue which is used by over 90% of trucks that make up Germany’s complex road-based logistical chains, as well by vehicles critical for emergency services and construction.
“Without AdBlue, engines would stand still,” Mr. Profitlich said.
At Bavaria-based porcelain maker Rosenthal GmbH, a stop in supplies would bring production to a complete standstill. White porcelain is typically made by heating materials in gas-fired chambers known as kilns temperatures over 2,000 degrees fahrenheit. Gas is currently the only energy source that can ensure that process, said Mads Ryder, Rosenthal’s chief executive.
“A cutback or even a halt to gas deliveries would mean that we would have to stop our entire production immediately and that would have considerable economic consequences for the company,” he said.
While the industry is exploring alternative sources like hydrogen, it would take at least 10 years before these offer a viable alternative, he said.
“There is very little creative freedom here in ceramics,” said René Holler, general manager of the German Association of the Ceramic Industry.
At brewer Brauerei C. & A. Veltins GmbH & Co. KG, gas is also an essential part of the whole beer production process.
The kettles for the brewing process are heated with the help of gas, which is also needed to achieve the necessary kettle pressure. The company then needs glass bottles, and natural gas is also indispensable in glass manufacturing. In total, Veltins says it would need 50 million bottles this year, whose costs are already up some 80% since April.
“To put it plainly: no beer without gas,” said Veltins spokesman Ulrich Biene.
The company, which has been brewing beer since 1824, is preparing for possible gas rationing by stocking up on heating oil to be able to keep up the operation for some limited time. Veltins has also ordered extra bottles and stashed them in crates in the brewery’s courtyard in the city of Grevenstein in case the supply chains break down.
Large German multinationals are also in a bind.
At chemicals giant BASF SE, a significant fall in gas supplies could lead to the closure of the world’s largest integrated chemical complex spanning some 200 plants. Such a shutdown would reverberate beyond the company, which sits at the beginning of most industrial supply chains, from cars to toothpaste. A throttling of BASF’s ammonia output, a key ingredient in fertilizers.
Henkel AG, the maker of consumer products including Persil laundry detergents, said it was looking at ways to switch to alternative energy sources and is considering increasing working from home options for employees to save on energy and heating costs.
German steelmaker Thyssenkrupp AG is heavily reliant on gas for its blast furnaces. “A switch from natural gas to oil or coal is not possible in our production processes, or only to a negligible extent,” the company said in a statement.
The company said it would halt some production processes If the gas supply dwindles, but it couldn’t rule out shutdowns or technical damage in the future.
“In Germany, prosperity has been secured by a strong industry. If the engine sputters now, the consequences are going to be dramatic,” said Mr. Holler of the ceramic industry association.
The main source of Russian gas in Germany is the Nord Stream undersea pipeline. Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC cut supplies through the pipeline to 40% of its capacity in June, blaming technical reasons related to western sanctions. The German government has called the move a hostile political act and officials fear Moscow won’t restart supplies after the pipeline is turned off July 11 for scheduled maintenance.
“We must brace ourselves for the fact that this situation won’t change in the foreseeable future…in other words: we stand before a historic challenge,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters Monday.
Shortly after Russia’s attack, Germany cut its reliance on Russian gas imports from 55% to about a third. But the bulk of its diversification effort relies on contracts that will not kick in before months, even years, making its economy particularly vulnerable this winter.
The government said it wants private gas consumption to fall 20% to get through the winter. The city of Hamburg said this week it could ration hot water for households in the event of a gas emergency. About half of Germany’s 40 million households use gas for heating and hot water.
The federal government already announced 30 billion euro in spending, equivalent to around $31 billion, to help the economy cope with the fallout from the war. But officials said the total amount of funding could exceed the 100 billion euro mark in the coming months if Russia completely cut off energy supplies.
Some of the funding could go to support consumers. While German law gives priority to households over industry should gas need rationing, many people may no longer be able to afford energy in the future, said Jens Südekum, a professor of economics at Heinrich Heine University in Düsseldorf.
A typical family of four paid 86 euros a month for gas last year. This winter, that expenditure could go up sixfold, Prof. Südekum said.
“If we keep consuming at normal levels, parts of the industry will have to be shut down and we will slide into a very severe recession,” he said. “The choice is between a milder and a severe recession.”
Write to Bojan Pancevski at bojan.pancevski@wsj.com and Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com
Germany to Bail Out Energy Suppliers Ahead of Winter Without Russian Gas - WSJ
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Doc1
Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Germans - and the rest of Europe - have willingly stepped into a trap. Irrespective of how one feels about the Ukraine - Russia war, it's insane to alienate your critical suppliers because of external political dynamics.
This goes back to the whole 'outsourcing' question, which the US is just as guilty of. Exactly as western Europe relies to a disproportionate degree on Russian energy, the US relies on China to a disproportionate degree for manufacturing. In the case of the US, this includes - but is not limited to - critical military materials.
In all cases above, the quest for short-term profits blinded the nations to long term stability and security. It is one thing to alienate a supplier if you have domestic production capability or reliable alternative suppliers, but to do so in the absence of these is a Kavorkian-like assisted suicide play. In this case, Europe is assisting themselves in their demise!
I am reasonably certain that I understand the European play: The Euro leaders understand that there are months yet before winter weather and the end of their gas reserves come into play. They think - or at least thought - that this relatively short window would afford them time for the Ukraine dynamic to change and for new agreements to be hammered out with Russia.
While considering this, bear in mind that until quite recently the European consensus was that Russia was going to lose this war and the Russian economy would be destroyed. The Euro leaders doubtless believed that an economically prostrate Russia would be prepared to offer them even better terms than they were previously enjoying and that the Russians would come with begging bowl in hand. Things haven't panned out like the Europeans and Americans expected. The Russians appear to be winning their war and far from collapsing, the Russian economy seems to be surviving, if not thriving.
The Russians have long memories and as time draws closer to cold weather and an energy crisis, the resumption of Russian energy supplies might not be as simple as penning a new agreement, shaking hands and turning a valve on.
I will postulate an outcome that few commentators have considered. Suppose, irrespective of how the Ukraine conflict is resolved, the Russians simply refuse to sell any energy to Europe going forward! Nyet, they might say, in their best Soup Nazi impersonation. "No gas for you!"
Without alternative energy infrastructure in place - and it's not - much of Europe may well be looking at a winter of, literally, freezing in the dark.
Best
Doc
This goes back to the whole 'outsourcing' question, which the US is just as guilty of. Exactly as western Europe relies to a disproportionate degree on Russian energy, the US relies on China to a disproportionate degree for manufacturing. In the case of the US, this includes - but is not limited to - critical military materials.
In all cases above, the quest for short-term profits blinded the nations to long term stability and security. It is one thing to alienate a supplier if you have domestic production capability or reliable alternative suppliers, but to do so in the absence of these is a Kavorkian-like assisted suicide play. In this case, Europe is assisting themselves in their demise!
I am reasonably certain that I understand the European play: The Euro leaders understand that there are months yet before winter weather and the end of their gas reserves come into play. They think - or at least thought - that this relatively short window would afford them time for the Ukraine dynamic to change and for new agreements to be hammered out with Russia.
While considering this, bear in mind that until quite recently the European consensus was that Russia was going to lose this war and the Russian economy would be destroyed. The Euro leaders doubtless believed that an economically prostrate Russia would be prepared to offer them even better terms than they were previously enjoying and that the Russians would come with begging bowl in hand. Things haven't panned out like the Europeans and Americans expected. The Russians appear to be winning their war and far from collapsing, the Russian economy seems to be surviving, if not thriving.
The Russians have long memories and as time draws closer to cold weather and an energy crisis, the resumption of Russian energy supplies might not be as simple as penning a new agreement, shaking hands and turning a valve on.
I will postulate an outcome that few commentators have considered. Suppose, irrespective of how the Ukraine conflict is resolved, the Russians simply refuse to sell any energy to Europe going forward! Nyet, they might say, in their best Soup Nazi impersonation. "No gas for you!"
Without alternative energy infrastructure in place - and it's not - much of Europe may well be looking at a winter of, literally, freezing in the dark.
Best
Doc
northern watch
TB Fanatic
The Russian war machine is at full capacity: The "war economy" has been approved – Proposal for the Cancellation of the Treaty of Barents with Norway – Confirmation of WarNews247
The first bills were approved - Russia is preparing for a new front
05/07/2022 - 18:23
War News 24 / 7
By Vassilis Kapoulas
The president of the Russian State Duma instructed the International Relations Committee to consider the annulment of the Barents Treaty between Russia and Norway at the time when the first two bills were adopted:
Russia is officially turning into a "war economy" something that WarNews247 had pointed out as of 24/3/2022.
Both developments are not good for regional peace and stability. If the cancellation of the Barents Treaty is approved, which is very likely if the blockade of Svalbard is not lifted, then Russia and Norway are on a path of head-on confrontation.
40 years of negotiations will collapse in an instant and the region will turn into a "war zone" as issues of territorial disputes will be raised.
At the same time, approval of a transition to a war economy only makes sense if there is an extension of the war either to Transnistria or to the Baltic, and therefore it will be necessary at some point to mobilize. It is not about Donbass or Kharkov, but the goal is much greater.
Suggestion of denunciation of the Barents Treaty!
The president of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, instructed the International Relations Committee of the House of Representatives to consider the issue of denouncing or suspending the agreement on the delimitation of maritime zones between Russia and Norway in the Barents Sea.
The President of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin at the plenary session asked the Committee on International Affairs to thoroughly examine this issue.
The issue of denunciation of the Treaty was raised by the representative of the CPRF faction Mikhail Matveyev. According to him, at that time Russia had ceded to Norway 175 thousand square kilometers of the Barents Sea. The agreement was approved by the State Duma in 2010.
According to the politician, the concessions of so many thousands of square kilometers were explained by the fact that the agreement should have a positive effect on the "interaction between the countries of the Arctic".
"Today we see how the Kingdom of Norway is blocking the shipment of food to Svalbard, to our settlements," he said.
"Leonid Eduardovich Slutsky is here with us (chairman of the international commission ). Let's ask Leonid Eduardovic to study this issue and then inform the MPs," said Vyacheslav Volodin.
Strong reaction from Norway
"The dividing line agreement does not contain any termination clause," replies Norwegian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Ane Haavardsdatter Lunde. He adds:
"It is common practice that this kind of agreement to set limits applies indefinitely. We assume that Russia will deal with this.
Norway and Russia have a mutual interest in maintaining the dividing line agreement."
Since 1970, Norway and Russia have been negotiating a dividing line for the continental shelf in the Barents Sea.
The difference is an oceanic area of 176,000 square kilometers. Russian seismic surveys in the late 1980s in disputed areas suggest that there may be large oil deposits in the area.
Since 1978, fishing in the so-called grey area has been regulated by a temporary regime. This agreement is renewed every year. The gray zone is 40,000 square kilometers and enters both the Norwegian and Russian zones.
Former Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg and his colleague Mikhail Fradkov agreed in June 2007 on an agreement regulating the border on a 70-kilometer line abroad Varangerfjord.
"This is very dramatic. First and foremost, this is a harsh threat from Russia to break the most important cooperation Norway and Russia have achieved since the war, says senior researcher at Nupi, Julie Wilhelmsen.
There is a historic agreement at stake. After 40 years of negotiations, Russia and Norway agreed in 2010 on a compromise around the dividing line in the Barents Sea.
Managing fishing in the Barents Sea is the most important thing in Norwegian fisheries policy. Russia disputes this is very serious, says the former mayor of Sør-Varanger and former leader of the Barents Secretariat, Rune Rafaelsen (Labour).
Russia is turning into a "war economy"
At the same time, the Russian parliament approved the first vote to adopt "war economy" measures as announced by WarNews247.
The Russian government will be able to force businesses to supply the army with weapons systems, ammunition while forcing their employees to work overtime in accordance with two laws approved in a first vote in the Russian parliament.
One of the two bills, both passed unanimously,says the state could impose "special economic measures" during military operations, requiring companies to supply goods and services to the military.
"The load on the defence industry has increased significantly. To ensure the supply of weapons and ammunition, it is necessary to optimize the work of the military-industrial complex and the operations that are part of the cooperation chains," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov stressed.
"At this time, when the countries of the collective West are strengthening their military presence on the border with Russia, intensifying the pressure of sanctions, increasing arms supplies to Ukraine, the importance of passing the bills cannot be overestimated," Borisov told lawmakers.
The second bill would amend the labor code to grant the government the right to regulate working hours and determine the days of non-operation in specific companies.
Employees of enterprises providing ammunition to the Russian army could be forced to work at night, on weekends and holidays, and without annual leave. Just like WarNews247 had revealed.
Both bills still need to be submitted to a second and third reading in the Duma, where speaker Viacheslav Volodin said the debate would continue behind closed doors on Wednesday. Then they must be reviewed by the upper house of parliament and signed by President Vladimir Putin to become laws.
The bills were drafted in accordance with the instructions of Russian President Vladimir Putin and allow the Russian government to decide on the adoption of special measures in the economy to ensure the conduct of counterterrorism and other operations outside Russia.
"The amendments affect precisely the historically formed list of the main executors of projects of the State Ministry of Defense and their cooperation," Yuri Borisov explained.
In addition, in order to reduce the time for placing orders, the Ministry of Emergency, the Ministry of Defense, the National Guard and the Federal Security Service are given the right, with the introduction of special measures, to change the quantity of products provided for by the contracts in force under the State Defense Order.
State customers have the right to change the amount of products provided even now, but not more than 10%.
"The amendments propose the lifting of this restriction, which will reduce the time for placing additional volumes of the state defense order and paying advances to organizations of the defense industry," Yuri Borisov explained. "However, the process for setting prices remains the same."
The bills also give the Government the power to establish the peculiarities of the legal regulation of labor relations in individual organizations, their structural departments and their production facilities.
The demarcation line between Norway and Russia
EXTRAORDINARY- The Russian war machine is in full swing: The "war economy" has been approved - Proposal to Cancel the Treaty of Barents with Norway - Confirmation of WarNews247 - WarNews247
The first bills were approved - Russia is preparing for a new front
05/07/2022 - 18:23
War News 24 / 7
By Vassilis Kapoulas
The president of the Russian State Duma instructed the International Relations Committee to consider the annulment of the Barents Treaty between Russia and Norway at the time when the first two bills were adopted:
Russia is officially turning into a "war economy" something that WarNews247 had pointed out as of 24/3/2022.
Both developments are not good for regional peace and stability. If the cancellation of the Barents Treaty is approved, which is very likely if the blockade of Svalbard is not lifted, then Russia and Norway are on a path of head-on confrontation.
40 years of negotiations will collapse in an instant and the region will turn into a "war zone" as issues of territorial disputes will be raised.
At the same time, approval of a transition to a war economy only makes sense if there is an extension of the war either to Transnistria or to the Baltic, and therefore it will be necessary at some point to mobilize. It is not about Donbass or Kharkov, but the goal is much greater.
Suggestion of denunciation of the Barents Treaty!
The president of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, instructed the International Relations Committee of the House of Representatives to consider the issue of denouncing or suspending the agreement on the delimitation of maritime zones between Russia and Norway in the Barents Sea.
The President of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin at the plenary session asked the Committee on International Affairs to thoroughly examine this issue.
The issue of denunciation of the Treaty was raised by the representative of the CPRF faction Mikhail Matveyev. According to him, at that time Russia had ceded to Norway 175 thousand square kilometers of the Barents Sea. The agreement was approved by the State Duma in 2010.
According to the politician, the concessions of so many thousands of square kilometers were explained by the fact that the agreement should have a positive effect on the "interaction between the countries of the Arctic".
"Today we see how the Kingdom of Norway is blocking the shipment of food to Svalbard, to our settlements," he said.
"Leonid Eduardovich Slutsky is here with us (chairman of the international commission ). Let's ask Leonid Eduardovic to study this issue and then inform the MPs," said Vyacheslav Volodin.
Strong reaction from Norway
"The dividing line agreement does not contain any termination clause," replies Norwegian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Ane Haavardsdatter Lunde. He adds:
"It is common practice that this kind of agreement to set limits applies indefinitely. We assume that Russia will deal with this.
Norway and Russia have a mutual interest in maintaining the dividing line agreement."
Since 1970, Norway and Russia have been negotiating a dividing line for the continental shelf in the Barents Sea.
The difference is an oceanic area of 176,000 square kilometers. Russian seismic surveys in the late 1980s in disputed areas suggest that there may be large oil deposits in the area.
Since 1978, fishing in the so-called grey area has been regulated by a temporary regime. This agreement is renewed every year. The gray zone is 40,000 square kilometers and enters both the Norwegian and Russian zones.
Former Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg and his colleague Mikhail Fradkov agreed in June 2007 on an agreement regulating the border on a 70-kilometer line abroad Varangerfjord.
"This is very dramatic. First and foremost, this is a harsh threat from Russia to break the most important cooperation Norway and Russia have achieved since the war, says senior researcher at Nupi, Julie Wilhelmsen.
There is a historic agreement at stake. After 40 years of negotiations, Russia and Norway agreed in 2010 on a compromise around the dividing line in the Barents Sea.
Managing fishing in the Barents Sea is the most important thing in Norwegian fisheries policy. Russia disputes this is very serious, says the former mayor of Sør-Varanger and former leader of the Barents Secretariat, Rune Rafaelsen (Labour).
Russia is turning into a "war economy"
At the same time, the Russian parliament approved the first vote to adopt "war economy" measures as announced by WarNews247.
The Russian government will be able to force businesses to supply the army with weapons systems, ammunition while forcing their employees to work overtime in accordance with two laws approved in a first vote in the Russian parliament.
One of the two bills, both passed unanimously,says the state could impose "special economic measures" during military operations, requiring companies to supply goods and services to the military.
"The load on the defence industry has increased significantly. To ensure the supply of weapons and ammunition, it is necessary to optimize the work of the military-industrial complex and the operations that are part of the cooperation chains," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov stressed.
"At this time, when the countries of the collective West are strengthening their military presence on the border with Russia, intensifying the pressure of sanctions, increasing arms supplies to Ukraine, the importance of passing the bills cannot be overestimated," Borisov told lawmakers.
The second bill would amend the labor code to grant the government the right to regulate working hours and determine the days of non-operation in specific companies.
Employees of enterprises providing ammunition to the Russian army could be forced to work at night, on weekends and holidays, and without annual leave. Just like WarNews247 had revealed.
Both bills still need to be submitted to a second and third reading in the Duma, where speaker Viacheslav Volodin said the debate would continue behind closed doors on Wednesday. Then they must be reviewed by the upper house of parliament and signed by President Vladimir Putin to become laws.
The bills were drafted in accordance with the instructions of Russian President Vladimir Putin and allow the Russian government to decide on the adoption of special measures in the economy to ensure the conduct of counterterrorism and other operations outside Russia.
"The amendments affect precisely the historically formed list of the main executors of projects of the State Ministry of Defense and their cooperation," Yuri Borisov explained.
In addition, in order to reduce the time for placing orders, the Ministry of Emergency, the Ministry of Defense, the National Guard and the Federal Security Service are given the right, with the introduction of special measures, to change the quantity of products provided for by the contracts in force under the State Defense Order.
State customers have the right to change the amount of products provided even now, but not more than 10%.
"The amendments propose the lifting of this restriction, which will reduce the time for placing additional volumes of the state defense order and paying advances to organizations of the defense industry," Yuri Borisov explained. "However, the process for setting prices remains the same."
The bills also give the Government the power to establish the peculiarities of the legal regulation of labor relations in individual organizations, their structural departments and their production facilities.
The demarcation line between Norway and Russia
EXTRAORDINARY- The Russian war machine is in full swing: The "war economy" has been approved - Proposal to Cancel the Treaty of Barents with Norway - Confirmation of WarNews247 - WarNews247
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Doc, Autumn begins in 79 days!
northern watch
TB Fanatic
If indeed Russia has now gone to a war economy, then the US, UK and NATO better step up and match Russia!The Russian war machine is at full capacity: The "war economy" has been approved – Proposal for the Cancellation of the Treaty of Barents with Norway – Confirmation of WarNews247
The first bills were approved - Russia is preparing for a new front
05/07/2022 - 18:23
War News 24 / 7
By Vassilis Kapoulas
The president of the Russian State Duma instructed the International Relations Committee to consider the annulment of the Barents Treaty between Russia and Norway at the time when the first two bills were adopted:
Russia is officially turning into a "war economy" something that WarNews247 had pointed out as of 24/3/2022.
Both developments are not good for regional peace and stability. If the cancellation of the Barents Treaty is approved, which is very likely if the blockade of Svalbard is not lifted, then Russia and Norway are on a path of head-on confrontation.
40 years of negotiations will collapse in an instant and the region will turn into a "war zone" as issues of territorial disputes will be raised.
At the same time, approval of a transition to a war economy only makes sense if there is an extension of the war either to Transnistria or to the Baltic, and therefore it will be necessary at some point to mobilize. It is not about Donbass or Kharkov, but the goal is much greater.
Suggestion of denunciation of the Barents Treaty!
The president of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, instructed the International Relations Committee of the House of Representatives to consider the issue of denouncing or suspending the agreement on the delimitation of maritime zones between Russia and Norway in the Barents Sea.
The President of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin at the plenary session asked the Committee on International Affairs to thoroughly examine this issue.
The issue of denunciation of the Treaty was raised by the representative of the CPRF faction Mikhail Matveyev. According to him, at that time Russia had ceded to Norway 175 thousand square kilometers of the Barents Sea. The agreement was approved by the State Duma in 2010.
According to the politician, the concessions of so many thousands of square kilometers were explained by the fact that the agreement should have a positive effect on the "interaction between the countries of the Arctic".
"Today we see how the Kingdom of Norway is blocking the shipment of food to Svalbard, to our settlements," he said.
"Leonid Eduardovich Slutsky is here with us (chairman of the international commission ). Let's ask Leonid Eduardovic to study this issue and then inform the MPs," said Vyacheslav Volodin.
Strong reaction from Norway
"The dividing line agreement does not contain any termination clause," replies Norwegian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Ane Haavardsdatter Lunde. He adds:
"It is common practice that this kind of agreement to set limits applies indefinitely. We assume that Russia will deal with this.
Norway and Russia have a mutual interest in maintaining the dividing line agreement."
Since 1970, Norway and Russia have been negotiating a dividing line for the continental shelf in the Barents Sea.
The difference is an oceanic area of 176,000 square kilometers. Russian seismic surveys in the late 1980s in disputed areas suggest that there may be large oil deposits in the area.
Since 1978, fishing in the so-called grey area has been regulated by a temporary regime. This agreement is renewed every year. The gray zone is 40,000 square kilometers and enters both the Norwegian and Russian zones.
Former Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg and his colleague Mikhail Fradkov agreed in June 2007 on an agreement regulating the border on a 70-kilometer line abroad Varangerfjord.
"This is very dramatic. First and foremost, this is a harsh threat from Russia to break the most important cooperation Norway and Russia have achieved since the war, says senior researcher at Nupi, Julie Wilhelmsen.
There is a historic agreement at stake. After 40 years of negotiations, Russia and Norway agreed in 2010 on a compromise around the dividing line in the Barents Sea.
Managing fishing in the Barents Sea is the most important thing in Norwegian fisheries policy. Russia disputes this is very serious, says the former mayor of Sør-Varanger and former leader of the Barents Secretariat, Rune Rafaelsen (Labour).
Russia is turning into a "war economy"
At the same time, the Russian parliament approved the first vote to adopt "war economy" measures as announced by WarNews247.
The Russian government will be able to force businesses to supply the army with weapons systems, ammunition while forcing their employees to work overtime in accordance with two laws approved in a first vote in the Russian parliament.
One of the two bills, both passed unanimously,says the state could impose "special economic measures" during military operations, requiring companies to supply goods and services to the military.
"The load on the defence industry has increased significantly. To ensure the supply of weapons and ammunition, it is necessary to optimize the work of the military-industrial complex and the operations that are part of the cooperation chains," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov stressed.
"At this time, when the countries of the collective West are strengthening their military presence on the border with Russia, intensifying the pressure of sanctions, increasing arms supplies to Ukraine, the importance of passing the bills cannot be overestimated," Borisov told lawmakers.
The second bill would amend the labor code to grant the government the right to regulate working hours and determine the days of non-operation in specific companies.
Employees of enterprises providing ammunition to the Russian army could be forced to work at night, on weekends and holidays, and without annual leave. Just like WarNews247 had revealed.
Both bills still need to be submitted to a second and third reading in the Duma, where speaker Viacheslav Volodin said the debate would continue behind closed doors on Wednesday. Then they must be reviewed by the upper house of parliament and signed by President Vladimir Putin to become laws.
The bills were drafted in accordance with the instructions of Russian President Vladimir Putin and allow the Russian government to decide on the adoption of special measures in the economy to ensure the conduct of counterterrorism and other operations outside Russia.
"The amendments affect precisely the historically formed list of the main executors of projects of the State Ministry of Defense and their cooperation," Yuri Borisov explained.
In addition, in order to reduce the time for placing orders, the Ministry of Emergency, the Ministry of Defense, the National Guard and the Federal Security Service are given the right, with the introduction of special measures, to change the quantity of products provided for by the contracts in force under the State Defense Order.
State customers have the right to change the amount of products provided even now, but not more than 10%.
"The amendments propose the lifting of this restriction, which will reduce the time for placing additional volumes of the state defense order and paying advances to organizations of the defense industry," Yuri Borisov explained. "However, the process for setting prices remains the same."
The bills also give the Government the power to establish the peculiarities of the legal regulation of labor relations in individual organizations, their structural departments and their production facilities.
The demarcation line between Norway and Russia
EXTRAORDINARY- The Russian war machine is in full swing: The "war economy" has been approved - Proposal to Cancel the Treaty of Barents with Norway - Confirmation of WarNews247 - WarNews247
blueinterceptor
Veteran Member
Go woke, Go Broke but on a much larger scale
In the end the USA could find itself on the losing end of this, as JB is wrong once again on foreign policy and once again makes the wrong decisions. Foreign Policy based upon corruption is no way to lead a nation
Last edited:
Doc1
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Yes. I fully understand this. Remember though, that the sanction business started shortly after the February invasion. Time is growing ever shorter for the Europeans.
Europe is constrained in their options by several realities. One is the prospect of a wider war. Should NATO actually get into a direct shooting war with Russia, how, exactly, would that increase energy supplies to Europe? Should a wider war include the use of tactical nuclear weapons, one might expect gas and oil transmission lines to be destroyed. How would that help Europe? Should NATO impose, or attempt to impose, a naval blockade on Russia, gas and oil transportation would be one of the first things impacted. Again, how would that possibly help Europe?
By my lights, Europe has no good options.
Best
Doc
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Iran, Russia, China To Run War Drills in Latin America
Chinese president Xi Jinping and Russian president Vladimir Putin • July 5, 2022 4:55 am
Iran, Russia, and China are gearing up to run a series of major war drills in Latin America in a show of force meant to signal how these militaries can reach the United States.
Venezuela, under the leadership of anti-U.S. socialist president Nicolás Maduro, is scheduled to host the war games in mid-August, according to a report by the Center for a Secure Free Society, a think tank that tracks malign regimes. Along with 10 other nations, Russia, China, and Iran will move their militaries into the Western Hemisphere for war drills that will "preposition forward-deployed military assets in Latin America and the Caribbean."
The war games, known as the Sniper Frontier competition, show that these malign regime from across the globe are uniting and "getting ready to make a loud statement that the region is ready to embrace the multipolar force," according to the think-tank report, which focuses on Latin America's embrace of authoritarian regimes. A key portion of Russia's "military is prepping to bring, for the first time, some of these military games to the Western Hemisphere"—even as Moscow is bogged down with war in Ukraine.
The war drills are one of the starkest signs to date that Latin America's coalition of anti-U.S. regimes is working to boost relations with Russia, China, and Iran. Maduro recently wrapped up a diplomatic tour of the Middle East in which he inked a 20-year strategic deal with Iran that laid the groundwork for an Iranian oil tanker to dock in Venezuela and offload Tehran's illicit crude. "The strategic deal between Iran and Venezuela is meant to mirror similar strategic agreements that the Islamic Republic signed with China and Russia in recent years," according to the think-tank report. Latin American regimes also are inking military pacts with Russia.
"Russia and its allies Iran and China are about to make a major show of force with the army games competition in August in Venezuela. But it's important to understand that this force is molded by cyber-enabled, digital disinformation that is at the heart of how this kind of joint military exercise is used to legitimize authoritarian states and delegitimize democracies in the Western Hemisphere," Joseph Humire, a national security analyst and executive director of the think tank, told the Washington Free Beacon. "By normalizing military movements of U.S. adversaries in the Caribbean, we run the risk of weakening the moral legitimacy of democracies in Latin America."
There are also signs that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the country's paramilitary fighting force, is boosting its presence in Latin America.
In early June, a Venezuela cargo plane flying in the region "was discovered to have members of the Qods Force, the elite unit of Iran's revolutionary guards, on board," according to the think-tank report. "Gholamreza Ghasemi, a known weapons trafficker for the IRGC and manager of Qeshm Fars Air, was piloting the Boeing 747-300M that returned to Buenos Aires along with 4 other Iranian nationals and 14 Venezuelans."
After the plane was grounded, "documents, personnel effects, and electronics were seized by Argentine authorities who discovered images of tanks, missiles, and other pro-IRGC paraphernalia on one of the mobile devices," hinting at a larger Iranian-backed plot unfolding in the region.
Ghasemi reportedly made at least 13 trips from Iran to Venezuela in the past year and a half, raising red flags with the FBI and the Israeli government.
As Iran and Venezuela increase their military and economic ties, Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega—an ally of Venezuela's Maduro—renewed a military pact with Russia "authorizing Russian troops, planes, and ships to patrol the Central American country's borders and conduct joint military training exercises," according to the report. The military agreement was signed amid Russia's war with Ukraine, indicating that a presence in Latin America remains a priority for Moscow even as it faces pressure on its own borders.
Russia has been waging covert espionage operations in Latin America. An accused Russian GRU military intelligence agent was recently caught trying to obtain an internship at the International Criminal Court. The spy "had been cultivating his cover as a Brazilian national for years and may not have been working alone," according to the think-tank report.
China also has been active in the region, though these efforts have received little media attention.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi last month inked several economic deals in Latin America, making calls to Uruguay, Nicaragua, and Ecuador. China's Belt and Road Initiative, a program to increase the Chinese Communist Party's global footprint, has made its way into Argentina, where it is working to build infrastructure projects.
"As Russia attempts to delegitimize the international financial system," the think tank noted, "China has signed an agreement with a Switzerland-based bank to establish a reserve of yuan currency together with Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Chile to counter the U.S. dollar."
freebeacon.com
Iran, Russia, and China are gearing up to run a series of major war drills in Latin America in a show of force meant to signal how these militaries can reach the United States.
Venezuela, under the leadership of anti-U.S. socialist president Nicolás Maduro, is scheduled to host the war games in mid-August, according to a report by the Center for a Secure Free Society, a think tank that tracks malign regimes. Along with 10 other nations, Russia, China, and Iran will move their militaries into the Western Hemisphere for war drills that will "preposition forward-deployed military assets in Latin America and the Caribbean."
The war games, known as the Sniper Frontier competition, show that these malign regime from across the globe are uniting and "getting ready to make a loud statement that the region is ready to embrace the multipolar force," according to the think-tank report, which focuses on Latin America's embrace of authoritarian regimes. A key portion of Russia's "military is prepping to bring, for the first time, some of these military games to the Western Hemisphere"—even as Moscow is bogged down with war in Ukraine.
The war drills are one of the starkest signs to date that Latin America's coalition of anti-U.S. regimes is working to boost relations with Russia, China, and Iran. Maduro recently wrapped up a diplomatic tour of the Middle East in which he inked a 20-year strategic deal with Iran that laid the groundwork for an Iranian oil tanker to dock in Venezuela and offload Tehran's illicit crude. "The strategic deal between Iran and Venezuela is meant to mirror similar strategic agreements that the Islamic Republic signed with China and Russia in recent years," according to the think-tank report. Latin American regimes also are inking military pacts with Russia.
"Russia and its allies Iran and China are about to make a major show of force with the army games competition in August in Venezuela. But it's important to understand that this force is molded by cyber-enabled, digital disinformation that is at the heart of how this kind of joint military exercise is used to legitimize authoritarian states and delegitimize democracies in the Western Hemisphere," Joseph Humire, a national security analyst and executive director of the think tank, told the Washington Free Beacon. "By normalizing military movements of U.S. adversaries in the Caribbean, we run the risk of weakening the moral legitimacy of democracies in Latin America."
There are also signs that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the country's paramilitary fighting force, is boosting its presence in Latin America.
In early June, a Venezuela cargo plane flying in the region "was discovered to have members of the Qods Force, the elite unit of Iran's revolutionary guards, on board," according to the think-tank report. "Gholamreza Ghasemi, a known weapons trafficker for the IRGC and manager of Qeshm Fars Air, was piloting the Boeing 747-300M that returned to Buenos Aires along with 4 other Iranian nationals and 14 Venezuelans."
After the plane was grounded, "documents, personnel effects, and electronics were seized by Argentine authorities who discovered images of tanks, missiles, and other pro-IRGC paraphernalia on one of the mobile devices," hinting at a larger Iranian-backed plot unfolding in the region.
Ghasemi reportedly made at least 13 trips from Iran to Venezuela in the past year and a half, raising red flags with the FBI and the Israeli government.
As Iran and Venezuela increase their military and economic ties, Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega—an ally of Venezuela's Maduro—renewed a military pact with Russia "authorizing Russian troops, planes, and ships to patrol the Central American country's borders and conduct joint military training exercises," according to the report. The military agreement was signed amid Russia's war with Ukraine, indicating that a presence in Latin America remains a priority for Moscow even as it faces pressure on its own borders.
Russia has been waging covert espionage operations in Latin America. An accused Russian GRU military intelligence agent was recently caught trying to obtain an internship at the International Criminal Court. The spy "had been cultivating his cover as a Brazilian national for years and may not have been working alone," according to the think-tank report.
China also has been active in the region, though these efforts have received little media attention.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi last month inked several economic deals in Latin America, making calls to Uruguay, Nicaragua, and Ecuador. China's Belt and Road Initiative, a program to increase the Chinese Communist Party's global footprint, has made its way into Argentina, where it is working to build infrastructure projects.
"As Russia attempts to delegitimize the international financial system," the think tank noted, "China has signed an agreement with a Switzerland-based bank to establish a reserve of yuan currency together with Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Chile to counter the U.S. dollar."
Iran, Russia, China to Run War Drills in Latin America
Iran, Russia, and China are gearing up to run a series of major war drills in Latin America in a show of force meant to signal how these militaries can reach the United States.
freebeacon.com
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
24m
It's the symbology of this that is huge for sure. Right in Americas backyard.
@EndGameWW3
·
24m
It's the symbology of this that is huge for sure. Right in Americas backyard.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
Charles McPhedran
@charliekreuz
·
7m
Air-raid alert in Kyiv; the first time during the day that the sirens have rung out in a week.
Charles McPhedran
@charliekreuz
·
7m
Air-raid alert in Kyiv; the first time during the day that the sirens have rung out in a week.
Latest analysis at Moon of Alabama re: Donbass + rest & reloading
MoA - 'Western' Media Spread Copium To Prolong The War In Ukraine
'Western' Media Spread Copium To Prolong The War In Ukraine
The war in Ukraine is clearly progressing in Russia's favor. That is why I am appalled by the incompetent descriptions in 'western' media of past and current operations in that war.
Consider this June 21 map of the Lysichansk cauldron as it was developing. The frontline extended over 125+ kilometers (78 miles). (Click the word "bigger" below the map icons to load them on another tab for better reading clarity)
bigger
Fourteen days later and the map looks like this.
bigger
The frontline has been shortened to 25 kilometer (15 miles). On Sunday the Russia Defense Ministry announced that it troops had 'liberated' 184 square kilometer over the last 24 hours.
When I was in the military my tank battalion was expected to operate on a generally five kilometer (3 miles) wide frontline. That was of course just a rule of thumb depending on the terrain and other circumstances. But we can expect that a Russian Battalion Tactical Group (BTC) has similar abilities of frontline coverage.
Russia needed some 25 BTCs to cover the frontline on June 21. It now needs only 5 BTC to cover the current line. There were and now are of course additional reserve troops and some BTC are rotated out as rested ones come in just as Russia's president has ordered them to do:
Despite this obvious path to progress for the Russian side the Associate Press headlines:
High cost of Russia gains in Ukraine could limit new advance
The only purported evidence of high Russian costs are the assertions of a 'military analyst in Ukraine' who claims that some Russian units lost half of their soldiers. I have seen nothing that would support such a claim.
The AP writer then adds this:
So while the Ukrainians will also benefit from the now shorter frontline they have lost many soldiers and abandoned lots of equipment during the last weeks and will have difficulties to create any reserves.
There is absolutely no reason to believe that the Russian forces are not able to repeat the process over and over.
Copium pieces like the AP's one have the purpose of claiming that the Ukraine can still win the war and deserves wide support to achieve that.
Battlefield reality speaks against that. There is no chance that the Ukraine can gain superiority over the Russian army. No weapon delivery will help.
Yes, the HIMARS artillery system, directed by U.S. intelligence, can hit badly camouflage Russian weapon depots some kilometers behind the frontline as it did on two occasions so far. But Russia has no lack of ammunition and will take countermeasures to better protect it. Functioning armies always adopt to such challenges.
Any prolonging of the war will only lead to more deaths of Ukrainian soldiers, more wounded who will need care and more destruction. The only sane thing that can be done now is to press the Ukrainian president Zelensky to restart negotiations with Russia and admit the defeat of his troops.
Its much better to capitulate now instead of waiting for the Chechen leader Ramsan Kadyrov to come to Kiev and make him do so.
Posted by b on July 5, 2022 at 12:10 UTC | Permalink
MoA - 'Western' Media Spread Copium To Prolong The War In Ukraine
'Western' Media Spread Copium To Prolong The War In Ukraine
The war in Ukraine is clearly progressing in Russia's favor. That is why I am appalled by the incompetent descriptions in 'western' media of past and current operations in that war.
Consider this June 21 map of the Lysichansk cauldron as it was developing. The frontline extended over 125+ kilometers (78 miles). (Click the word "bigger" below the map icons to load them on another tab for better reading clarity)
bigger
Fourteen days later and the map looks like this.
bigger
The frontline has been shortened to 25 kilometer (15 miles). On Sunday the Russia Defense Ministry announced that it troops had 'liberated' 184 square kilometer over the last 24 hours.
When I was in the military my tank battalion was expected to operate on a generally five kilometer (3 miles) wide frontline. That was of course just a rule of thumb depending on the terrain and other circumstances. But we can expect that a Russian Battalion Tactical Group (BTC) has similar abilities of frontline coverage.
Russia needed some 25 BTCs to cover the frontline on June 21. It now needs only 5 BTC to cover the current line. There were and now are of course additional reserve troops and some BTC are rotated out as rested ones come in just as Russia's president has ordered them to do:
In a week or two those BTCs which now rest and resupply will be back. They will create a new cauldron around Siversk and maybe Bakhmut, decimate the Ukrainian forces within it to then capture the whole area.
Despite this obvious path to progress for the Russian side the Associate Press headlines:
High cost of Russia gains in Ukraine could limit new advance
The only purported evidence of high Russian costs are the assertions of a 'military analyst in Ukraine' who claims that some Russian units lost half of their soldiers. I have seen nothing that would support such a claim.
The AP writer then adds this:
Please. Look at the above maps. What did Russia just do? It had made an ambitious attempt to encircle a large area in Donbas and succeeded with the effort in just a few days. The Ukrainian army threw everything it had available into the cauldron and lost thousands of men while the Russian army avoided direct men against men fighting to minimize its own casualties.
So while the Ukrainians will also benefit from the now shorter frontline they have lost many soldiers and abandoned lots of equipment during the last weeks and will have difficulties to create any reserves.
There is absolutely no reason to believe that the Russian forces are not able to repeat the process over and over.
Copium pieces like the AP's one have the purpose of claiming that the Ukraine can still win the war and deserves wide support to achieve that.
Battlefield reality speaks against that. There is no chance that the Ukraine can gain superiority over the Russian army. No weapon delivery will help.
Yes, the HIMARS artillery system, directed by U.S. intelligence, can hit badly camouflage Russian weapon depots some kilometers behind the frontline as it did on two occasions so far. But Russia has no lack of ammunition and will take countermeasures to better protect it. Functioning armies always adopt to such challenges.
Any prolonging of the war will only lead to more deaths of Ukrainian soldiers, more wounded who will need care and more destruction. The only sane thing that can be done now is to press the Ukrainian president Zelensky to restart negotiations with Russia and admit the defeat of his troops.
Its much better to capitulate now instead of waiting for the Chechen leader Ramsan Kadyrov to come to Kiev and make him do so.
Posted by b on July 5, 2022 at 12:10 UTC | Permalink
blueinterceptor
Veteran Member
The USA had better start its war footing. It needs to put the zealots of the epa in check. We are being surrounded
EMICT
Veteran Member
Not if the plan is to take down the US by the current cabal in DC is factored into the equation.
Shadow
Swift, Silent,...Sleepy
If they only wait a bit Biden is doing their work for them... Maybe they should file a grievance!
Shadow
Old Gray Mare
TB Fanatic
Good news, sort of...
Fair use.
Captured Russian Tech is Bad News For China
Jul 4, 2022
The war in Ukraine has had one small silver lining for NATO countries and their allies: all the destroyed or abandoned Russian tech can be reverse engineered to better understand Russia's military capabilities. And that has implications for China too. Watch this episode of China Uncensored for more on the relationship between Russian and Chinese military tech.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtEoJ8YLT-I
run time 6:42
Fair use.
Captured Russian Tech is Bad News For China
Jul 4, 2022
The war in Ukraine has had one small silver lining for NATO countries and their allies: all the destroyed or abandoned Russian tech can be reverse engineered to better understand Russia's military capabilities. And that has implications for China too. Watch this episode of China Uncensored for more on the relationship between Russian and Chinese military tech.
run time 6:42
155 arty
Veteran Member
yes ...hunters laptop contents confirm it
jward
passin' thru
Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
BREAKING: The Russian-backed Donetsk People's Republic seizes two foreign flagged ships in Mariupol as state property
11:39 AM · Jul 5, 2022·Twitter Web App
The maritime security threat posed by the Donetsk People's Republic's seizure of foreign flagged ships remains overlooked. Seizures of this kind could escalate if Turkey's seizure of a ship carrying smuggled Russian grain becomes a recurring trend
jward
passin' thru
O my
Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
52m
Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov urges Zelensky to flee after Russia's Luhansk victory: “Zelensky says that he will take Lisichansk, and his banderism says the opposite. My advice to you is to run! You are good at it"
Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
52m
Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov urges Zelensky to flee after Russia's Luhansk victory: “Zelensky says that he will take Lisichansk, and his banderism says the opposite. My advice to you is to run! You are good at it"
jward
passin' thru
Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
2h
Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin considers abrogating the 2010 treaty between Russia and Norway on maritime borders The Russia-Norway clash over Svalbard is escalating and creates an important new fault-line in the Arctic
jward
passin' thru
[URL='https://twitter.com/SamRamani2']
Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2[/URL]
BREAKING: Finland and Sweden sign a historic NATO accession protocol
This protocol allows for Finland and Sweden to join NATO meetings, which expand their access to intelligence, but does not include a mutual defence clause. Informal security guarantees from Britain and the US, which were widely discussed this spring, will come into play
Well, there doesn't seem to be much sign of de-escalation in the NATO vs Russia war.
And Biden's claim that the ruble would be rubble hasn't aged too well.
The dreams of crushing Russia are fading as the reality of the situation becomes more clear.
To Doc1's points, it does seem that the Russians are in a far better position to weather this conflict than Europe.
With the Chinese openly siding with Russia, and our huge dependency on Chinese manufacturing, I expect that the US/NATO prospects for victory will fade quickly once China decides to enforce their new edicts about the Taiwan Strait not being an international waterway, or otherwise engage us in the conflict that seems inevitable.
Talk about "No Soup for You!"
The current US/WEF leftist regime seems to need total dominance and control with no room for compromise.
If something doesn't go their way, it is straight to "blow it up or burn it down".
Similar to how any political opposition to their insanity is quickly labeled domestic terrorism or some such hyperbole.
As the dynamics of the Nato- Russia conflict evolve, doubling down on the miscalculations will eventually lead to a real throw down, and with both sides having nuclear weapons........
But hey, at least our "leader" is a corrupt and senile fool who has to be protected from the reality of his consistent failures and coached on when to say what.
So we've got that going for us.
And Biden's claim that the ruble would be rubble hasn't aged too well.
The dreams of crushing Russia are fading as the reality of the situation becomes more clear.
To Doc1's points, it does seem that the Russians are in a far better position to weather this conflict than Europe.
With the Chinese openly siding with Russia, and our huge dependency on Chinese manufacturing, I expect that the US/NATO prospects for victory will fade quickly once China decides to enforce their new edicts about the Taiwan Strait not being an international waterway, or otherwise engage us in the conflict that seems inevitable.
Talk about "No Soup for You!"
The current US/WEF leftist regime seems to need total dominance and control with no room for compromise.
If something doesn't go their way, it is straight to "blow it up or burn it down".
Similar to how any political opposition to their insanity is quickly labeled domestic terrorism or some such hyperbole.
As the dynamics of the Nato- Russia conflict evolve, doubling down on the miscalculations will eventually lead to a real throw down, and with both sides having nuclear weapons........
But hey, at least our "leader" is a corrupt and senile fool who has to be protected from the reality of his consistent failures and coached on when to say what.
So we've got that going for us.
jward
passin' thru
Bill Browder
@Billbrowder
Russian executive linked to Putin energy giant Gazprom is found shot dead in his swimming pool in latest mystery death of country's tycoons. This is crazy. People connected with Gazprom are dropping like flies.
View: https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1544338143901466626?s=20&t=bg5oP0icMznQqLWjjYnzQQ
@Billbrowder
Russian executive linked to Putin energy giant Gazprom is found shot dead in his swimming pool in latest mystery death of country's tycoons. This is crazy. People connected with Gazprom are dropping like flies.
View: https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1544338143901466626?s=20&t=bg5oP0icMznQqLWjjYnzQQ
jward
passin' thru
NEXTA
@nexta_tv
Russia, as a response to the blocking of transit to #Kaliningrad, can completely ban the import and export of any goods through the Baltic countries to #Russia, the governor of the Kaliningrad region said.
View: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1544380428366319618?s=20&t=bg5oP0icMznQqLWjjYnzQQ
BTW, the pushpin is stuck in Riga not Kaliningrad.
NEXTA
@nexta_tv
Russia, as a response to the blocking of transit to #Kaliningrad, can completely ban the import and export of any goods through the Baltic countries to #Russia, the governor of the Kaliningrad region said.
View: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1544380428366319618?s=20&t=bg5oP0icMznQqLWjjYnzQQ
Oh, there is not actually a giant pushpin skyscraper in RIga. It is just nonsensical emphasis for this map.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
It pains me to post some of these articles because we are just so dumb
is Putin in the White House?
no.
can the White House negotiate with Russia on Ukraine's behalf?
no.
has Zelensky given any indication that he would negotiate anything other than Russia's complete surrender?
no.
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
WOW. Biden just voided the Monroe Doctrine! GANG, Iran, Russia, and China doing joint combat training in South America is a HUGE DOT.
Throw in all the communist regimes in Peru, Columbia, Chile, Venezuela etc and you got the USA surrounded.
Biden is amazing Doc1. Oh I left out the chinese nukes at Panama.
Destroying the Monroe Doctrine. INCREDIBLE!
Throw in all the communist regimes in Peru, Columbia, Chile, Venezuela etc and you got the USA surrounded.
Biden is amazing Doc1. Oh I left out the chinese nukes at Panama.
Destroying the Monroe Doctrine. INCREDIBLE!