ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Why would Russia blow it? If they are in a strong footing, unless the intent was to destroy any good river bank emplacements and dwellings...
The only explanation that makes sense is that Russian forces are retreating and extracting revenge via a scorched earth policy by destroying Ukraine infrascucture they can no longer exploit.

Strategically, Russia would never have done this if they were able to advance further in to Ukraine.
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The only explanation that makes sense is that Russian forces are retreating and extracting revenge via a scorched earth policy by destroying Ukraine infrascucture they can no longer exploit.

Strategically, Russia would never have done this if they could advance further in to Ukraine.
Or Ukraine could be doing the same and they are trying to confuse things with the response...
 

JeanCat

Veteran Member
The only explanation that makes sense is that Russian forces are retreating and extracting revenge via a scorched earth policy by destroying Ukraine infrascucture they can no longer exploit.

Strategically, Russia would never have done this if they were able to advance further in to Ukraine.
Good points.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
The dam was reported damaged in fighting going back to last year. It is as likely a "scorched earth" action on the part of the Russians as it just finally failing.

As to how much this may or may not assist the Russians vs the Ukranians in the short or long run only time will tell.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Statement of the Ministry of Defense on the offensive of the enemy on the South-Donetsk Front

During June 5, the enemy continued to conduct the offensive, concentrating the main efforts on the Vremevsky ledge of the South-Donetsk direction.
  • Having suffered heavy losses the day before, the Kiev regime reorganized the remnants of the 23rd and 31st mechanized brigades into separate consolidated units, which continued offensive operations in the areas of the settlement. Novodarovka and Levadnoe. In addition, a fresh brigade was brought into battle in this area.
  • At the same time, the enemy launched an offensive in the direction of the Oktyabrsky state farm and Novodonetskoye with the forces of the 37th Marine Brigade with reinforcements, the basis of which was the units of the 68th Mountain Jaeger Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine .
  • The enemy was inflicted a complex fire defeat by the forces of army, assault and operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery, as well as heavy flamethrower systems.
  • As a result of the active and selfless actions of the units of the Vostok grouping of troops, who showed courage and heroism , the enemy was stopped and did not achieve the assigned tasks. The attacking formations and military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered significant damage .
  • The total losses of the enemy in the South-Donetsk direction amounted to more than 1,500 militants, 28 tanks, including 8 "Leopards" made in Germany, three wheeled tanks AMX-10 made in France and 109 armored fighting vehicles.

View: https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1665830703039225856?cxt=HHwWgIC96dmMnJ4uAAAA
The Russian Wall:
The enemy was inflicted a complex fire defeat by the forces of army, assault and operational-tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery, as well as heavy flamethrower systems.

Hitting the Wall:
1,500 militants, 28 tanks
, including 8 "Leopards" made in Germany, three wheeled tanks AMX-10 made in France and 109 armored fighting vehicles.

Attempting to attack the Russian positions WITHOUT Air Cover and limited artillery - exactly what was expected to happen.
 

onetimer

Veteran Member
Or those russin idiots are sitting on land and infrastructure that they have no idea how to maintain and this dam failed as a result from prior damage.
 

Abert

Veteran Member

Melodi

Disaster Cat
It is possible under the Geneva Convention that this is a war crime. So whoever did it could be in big trouble at some point, depending on who did it and the war's eventual outcome. That tidbit was told to me by someone, not on the forum in a private e-mail. This isn't my personal view, I don't know enough about international law.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
From Sky News UK [images included this time for clarity]

Breaking

Ukraine war: Flooding fears after major dam breach in Russia-controlled Kherson region​

The dam was built in 1956 on the Dnipro river as part of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and supplies water to the Crimean peninsula and to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which is also under Russian control.
Tuesday 6 June 2023 06:40, UK


Listen to this article


0:00 / 2:44
1X
BeyondWords
Audio created using AI assistance
A satellite image shows the Kakhovka dam in October 2022 (Pic: European Union/ Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A)

Image:A satellite image shows the Kakhovka dam in October 2022. Pic: European Union/ Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A
Why you can trust Sky News
A dam in the Russian controlled part of southern Ukraine has been damaged by an explosion, leading to flooding in the area already hit by months of conflict.
Both Ukrainian and Russian officials blamed each other for destroying the Kakhovka dam in the Kherson region.

(Pic: Ukrayinskyi Pivden/via REUTERS)

Image:Pic: Ukrayinskyi Pivden/via REUTERS
Ukraine's military said that Russian forces blew up the dam.
"The Kakhovka [dam] was blown up by the Russian occupying forces," the South command of Ukraine's armed forces said on Tuesday on its Facebook page.
Targets attacked in south Donetsk
1:40




Play Video - Targets attacked in south Donetsk

Targets attacked in south Donetsk
"The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified."
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed "Russian terrorists" in a Telegram post, saying "the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam only confirms for the whole world that they must be expelled from every corner of Ukrainian land."
"Not a single meter should be left to them, because they use every meter for terror. It's only Ukraine's victory that will return security. And this victory will come. The terrorists will not be able to stop Ukraine with water, missiles or anything else," he wrote.
The Ukrainian Interior Ministry called for residents of 10 villages on the Dnipro river's right bank and parts of the city of Kherson to gather "essential documents and pets, turn off appliances and leave".
 

auxman

Ad eundum quo nemo ante iit...
From AlertsUSA...

Evacuation of Kherson, Ukraine and nearby villages following destruction of Nova Kakhovka dam. IAEA responding due to potential cooling threat at Zaporizhzhia NPP.
 

Doc1

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Self scrapping airplanes Red Baron. I'm sure zippy will be impressed they might have a misson left before the wings fall off.

I'm sure that Ukraine can get more use out of those planes. Aircraft are scrapped for a number of reasons besides being worn out. Obsolescence is a big reason, as well as aircraft exceeding take off and landing cycles and other safety considerations. None of which means that they can't fly, only that they're getting elderly.

But that's not the point, really. Those aircraft will be extremely limited by Russian anti-aircraft technology. Many of the pilots flying those old planes will effectively be flying one way suicide missions. The Russians have far better AA than do the Ukrainians and the Russian Air Force is still very, very reluctant to fly missions over Ukraine because the Ukrainian AA is still a threat. The Russians have been using glide bombs - which can travel a very considerable distance - because it allows their planes to deliver their payloads while still out of range of Ukrainian AA. For the same reason, both sides are using aircraft-borne smart missiles which can be fired from considerable standoff distances.

For the above reasons, I can't see the F16s that Ukraine has been begging for being a game changer in the Ukrainian skies. By all accounts the F16 is still a very capable aircraft, but is was designed and first fielded in the 1970s. Just like the Hornets, they are relatively elderly aircraft and to the best of my knowledge don't have any special AA protection.

This war is proving that manned aircraft are having an increasingly smaller role - for all sides - in modern warfare. AA technology is getting progressively better and making it ever easier to shoot planes out of the skies. Aircraft are very fragile machines compared to tanks and we've all been seeing how smart missiles have been taking out tanks in Ukraine.

In closing I was just struck by an interesting concept for an anti-aircraft weapon. I'm sure you all remember how "Sully" had his aircraft's engines disabled by bird strikes and then had to land in the Hudson River. As we've been seeing the extensive use of drones (of varying capability) in this war, I think it's a possibility that in the future we might see swarms of AI "bird" drones designed to navigate to and fly into an aircraft's engines. Such mini drones could carry small explosive charges designed explode upon contact with an aircraft's skin or when ingested into an engine.

Best
Doc
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I'm sure that Ukraine can get more use out of those planes. Aircraft are scrapped for a number of reasons besides being worn out. Obsolescence is a big reason, as well as aircraft exceeding take off and landing cycles and other safety considerations. None of which means that they can't fly, only that they're getting elderly.

But that's not the point, really. Those aircraft will be extremely limited by Russian anti-aircraft technology. Many of the pilots flying those old planes will effectively be flying one way suicide missions. The Russians have far better AA than do the Ukrainians and the Russian Air Force is still very, very reluctant to fly missions over Ukraine because the Ukrainian AA is still a threat. The Russians have been using glide bombs - which can travel a very considerable distance - because it allows their planes to deliver their payloads while still out of range of Ukrainian AA. For the same reason, both sides are using aircraft-borne smart missiles which can be fired from considerable standoff distances.

For the above reasons, I can't see the F16s that Ukraine has been begging for being a game changer in the Ukrainian skies. By all accounts the F16 is still a very capable aircraft, but is was designed and first fielded in the 1970s. Just like the Hornets, they are relatively elderly aircraft and to the best of my knowledge don't have any special AA protection.

This war is proving that manned aircraft are having an increasingly smaller role - for all sides - in modern warfare. AA technology is getting progressively better and making it ever easier to shoot planes out of the skies. Aircraft are very fragile machines compared to tanks and we've all been seeing how smart missiles have been taking out tanks in Ukraine.

In closing I was just struck by an interesting concept for an anti-aircraft weapon. I'm sure you all remember how "Sully" had his aircraft's engines disabled by bird strikes and then had to land in the Hudson River. As we've been seeing the extensive use of drones (of varying capability) in this war, I think it's a possibility that in the future we might see swarms of AI "bird" drones designed to navigate to and fly into an aircraft's engines. Such mini drones could carry small explosive charges designed explode upon contact with an aircraft's skin or when ingested into an engine.

Best
Doc

A big part of initiating any air campaign in the modern era is "preparing the battle space".

That means destroying the air defense capacity of the opponent. Today that means a lot of stand off precision guided weapons and good real time intel (see Israeli operations in Lebanon and Syria). After that then serious interdiction of the enemy's ability to resist everything else starts. See Serbia and Iraq in the 90s.

Currently Ukraine doesn't have that ability and Russia hasn't really demonstrated an operational mastery of the subject.

As for those Hornets IIRC they are relatively low time airframes that have been land based. Being their avionics are STANAG, adapting new stand-off weapons would be a lot easier than putting those Storm Shadow ALCMs onto the Su-24s.

But that's all moot since they, the support infrastructure and training have yet to be supplied.
 
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Melodi

Disaster Cat
From a long and picture-heavy article in the UK Daily Mail - very much worth looking at the link for the entire article and the many astonishing photos. It turns out hundreds of thousands of people COULD be affected by this. Then there is the nuclear power plant that may melt down....Melodi

'Catastrophe' fears as major dam is blown up near Kherson: Ukraine blames Russia as explosion causes massive breach, sparking floods and putting nuclear power plant at risk

Kakhovka dam near Kherson in southern Ukraine has suffered severe damage
Thousands have been told to abandon their homes amid fears of heavy flooding
The dam provides critical cooling to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
By ELIZABETH HAIGH and DAVID AVERRE

PUBLISHED: 05:46, 6 June 2023 | UPDATED: 08:22, 6 June 2023

View comments
Ukraine has accused Russian forces of blowing up a major dam and hydroelectric power station, threatening a 'catastrophic' flood that could displace hundreds of thousands of people and cause a nuclear disaster by cutting off cooling to a nuclear power plant.


The Ukrainian Interior Ministry confirmed this morning that the Kakhovka dam over the Dnieper river in the south of the country was damaged in an explosion and water had begun flooding through.

The ministry called for residents of 10 villages on the river's right bank and parts of the city of Kherson downriver to evacuate their homes.

Ukrainian authorities have previously warned that the dam's failure could unleash 18 million cubic meters (4.8 billion gallons) of water and flood Kherson and dozens of other towns and settlements, home to hundreds of thousands of people.

Environmental security expert Maksym Soroka warned the potential damage the flooding could cause 'can easily be compared to [an] atomic bomb explosion', given the devastation that could occur if the dam is broken completely.

President Volodymyr Zelensky will now urgently convene his Security Council on Tuesday after the explosion at the dam which provides vital cooling at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

The explosion at the dam has sparked concerns of a possible meltdown at the plant if the reactors cannot be cooled.

Ukraine and Russia have previously accused each other of targeting the dam with attacks, and last October Zelensky predicted that Russia would destroy the dam in order to cause a flood.
The dam and the hydroelectric power station were captured by Putin's forces as a priority at the start of the Russian invasion on February 24 last year. Russian officials claimed the dam was attacked by Ukrainian military strikes.

[Continue long article at link with video an images]
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
From a long and picture-heavy article in the UK Daily Mail - very much worth looking at the link for the entire article and the many astonishing photos. It turns out hundreds of thousands of people COULD be affected by this. Then there is the nuclear power plant that may melt down....Melodi

'Catastrophe' fears as major dam is blown up near Kherson: Ukraine blames Russia as explosion causes massive breach, sparking floods and putting nuclear power plant at risk

Kakhovka dam near Kherson in southern Ukraine has suffered severe damage
Thousands have been told to abandon their homes amid fears of heavy flooding
The dam provides critical cooling to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
By ELIZABETH HAIGH and DAVID AVERRE

PUBLISHED: 05:46, 6 June 2023 | UPDATED: 08:22, 6 June 2023

View comments
Ukraine has accused Russian forces of blowing up a major dam and hydroelectric power station, threatening a 'catastrophic' flood that could displace hundreds of thousands of people and cause a nuclear disaster by cutting off cooling to a nuclear power plant.


The Ukrainian Interior Ministry confirmed this morning that the Kakhovka dam over the Dnieper river in the south of the country was damaged in an explosion and water had begun flooding through.

The ministry called for residents of 10 villages on the river's right bank and parts of the city of Kherson downriver to evacuate their homes.

Ukrainian authorities have previously warned that the dam's failure could unleash 18 million cubic meters (4.8 billion gallons) of water and flood Kherson and dozens of other towns and settlements, home to hundreds of thousands of people.

Environmental security expert Maksym Soroka warned the potential damage the flooding could cause 'can easily be compared to [an] atomic bomb explosion', given the devastation that could occur if the dam is broken completely.

President Volodymyr Zelensky will now urgently convene his Security Council on Tuesday after the explosion at the dam which provides vital cooling at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

The explosion at the dam has sparked concerns of a possible meltdown at the plant if the reactors cannot be cooled.

Ukraine and Russia have previously accused each other of targeting the dam with attacks, and last October Zelensky predicted that Russia would destroy the dam in order to cause a flood.
The dam and the hydroelectric power station were captured by Putin's forces as a priority at the start of the Russian invasion on February 24 last year. Russian officials claimed the dam was attacked by Ukrainian military strikes.

[Continue long article at link with video an images]

A massive flood in the middle of a war zone is definitely not going to get the same attention that a tactical nuke would even if it accomplished the same thing.
 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Here's some factual background.
The question is really simple, who benefits the most by destroying the dam?
The side invading or the side defending?
On June 6th, the ''Day of the Counter-Offensive''.

Now in the information war, each side will try to blame each other, but the dam was filmed by cameras 24/7 and the explosion would have been filmed instantly, which means it does not exist.
There is no actual video of the explosion of the hydroelectric power station, despite the visual control, which forces the Western media to change their approach to covering the topic.
Posted for fair use.

Nova Kakhova Dam Breach​

A few hours ago an alleged explosion blew up the Nova Kakhova dam in Ukraine.
It was either that or structural damage from previous strikes.

Geoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel - 6:31 UTC · Jun 6, 2023
The dam was already under enormous strain and damaged.
Then things got worse. On 2 June, it looks like a road over the dam failed. That could be indicative of a larger structural failure.

In consequence the huge reservoir behind the dam is now flooding lower level land south of Kherson (Xepcoh). The pictures show the before and potential flooding due to the breach.
1686045171616.png


1686045204987.png
Previously the Russian army had pulled back its troops from the northern part of Kherson oblast because a dam breach would endanger their supply route.

Of note is that the Ukraine had previously filled the upstream dams on the Dnieper to the brim to increase the potential damage. Those waters were released in early May. Notice the date of the following tweet.

ZOKA @200_zoka - 14:12 UTC · May 4, 2023
Water level in Kakhovka reservoir in Zaporozhye region risen by 17 m and almost reached critical level. Under threat of destruction of dam in Kamenka Dneprovskaya, dozens of villages may be flooded.
Kyiv opened the floodgates in Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye.
Embedded video

The Ukrainian propagandists are claiming that the Russian blew up the dam. That is however unlikely. As the 'western aligned Moscow Times' noted six months ago:

In a catastrophic scenario, destroying the dam could send a highly destructive flood wave down the Dnipro River, causing severe flooding in large areas of southern Ukraine. Backswell would also likely flood the Inhulets River, a tributary of the Dnipro.

However, terrain levels mean the flooding would likely be worse on the Russian-held left bank of the Dnipro, making a detonation of explosives on the dam an unlikely move for Moscow.

"[Destroying the dam] would mean Russia essentially blowing its own foot off,” military analyst Michael Kofman said on the War on the Rocks podcast last month.

“[It] would flood the Russian-controlled part of Kherson [region]… much more than the western part that Ukrainians are likely to liberate."

And the secondary effects of blowing the dam could be just as severe for Russia.

Lowering the river level behind the dam threatens both water supplies to Crimea and risks cutting off access to cooling water for the Russian-controlled nuclear power plant in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region.

Water from the dam was also used to irrigate the southern Kherson oblast. The lack of water will disable the power generation at the dam which supplied the south.

The flood is likely to dissipate in a week or two but that does not change the major damages to the parts that Russia claims as its own.

The water will then have destroyed Russian mine fields on the left bank of the river. This will open routes for Ukrainian troops to cross the river and to attack into the southern Kherson oblast towards Crimea. There have previously reports that the Ukraine received bridging and ferry equipment for exactly this purpose.
 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Conflicting claims, how do they know?

The hydro-electric plant had been "totally destroyed" after a detonation inside the engine room, Ukraine's state hydro-electric company said.

Russian news agencies said the dam, which is controlled by Russian forces, had been struck by Ukrainian shelling at about 11pm on Monday evening, destroying the hydraulic valves of the hydro-electric power station the dam powers.

Russia's TASS state news agency quoted an unnamed emergency source as saying the dam had been struck by munitions from an Olkha multiple missile launcher, a Ukrainian weapons system.

Reuters was unable to verify the battlefield accounts from either side.
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member
Gee and I left out the part about Estonia's request being a DEFACTO clause 5 WAR REQUEST. Now you ask for NATO troops due to Russian military threats of invasion.

Yep? Sssszzzzzzz. Buzz. ROTFLMAO Yep a clause 4.98 for sure.
Yea, like we already sent tourists troops there.
 

SmithJ

Veteran Member
Ukraine blew up the dam to deprive the Crimea of water. As their front collapses they will go scorched earth on their population and infrastructure. All the while blaming it on Russia.

Do you honestly think that there would be lights on in Kiev if Russia where not trying to preserve as much of the infrastructure as is possible?
 

DuckandCover

Proud Sheeple

DuckandCover

Proud Sheeple
Ukraine blew up the dam to deprive the Crimea of water. As their front collapses they will go scorched earth on their population and infrastructure. All the while blaming it on Russia.

Do you honestly think that there would be lights on in Kiev if Russia where not trying to preserve as much of the infrastructure as is possible?

Possibly, yes. The Russians kept knocking out power stations and whatnot for a while. The power would be out for a while, then repairs were made and it came back. I don't know if that is still going on or not, but I do recall it happening for a while.
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
If the Russians can adapt this will backfire.

I have more concerned as to how many civilians were injured and killled as a result of this action of destroying the dam...
This was on MSN by ABC News, and may relive some worry.

Strategically vital Nova Khakovka dam blown up near border between Ukraine and Russia​


A section of a strategically vital Ukrainian dam and hydroelectric powerplant under Russian control has been blown up as both Ukraine and Russia are blaming each other for the breach.

The Nova Kakhovka dam, which was built in 1956 and traverses the enormous Dnipro river in southern Ukraine, suffered an explosion overnight at approximately 2 a.m. local time as a deluge of water could be seen bursting through the dam that had previously held back more than 18 cubic kilometers of water -- comparable to the size of the Great Salt Lake in Utah.

The dam’s breach could have a massive impact on the wider war effort between Russia and Ukraine.

MORE: Ukrainian counteroffensive 'shaping-up' amid attempts to destabilize Russian forces
A defiant President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held an emergency meeting of his National Security Council on Tuesday and blamed “Russian terrorists" for the explosion of the dam.

“The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam only confirms for the whole world that they must be expelled from every corner of Ukrainian land,” Zelenskyy said in a message on social media. “Not a single meter should be left to them, because they use every meter for terror. It’s only Ukraine's victory that will return security. And this victory will come. The terrorists will not be able to stop Ukraine with water, missiles or anything else.”

Meanwhile, an estimated 16,000 residents who live downriver were told to leave immediately in the aftermath of the explosion as the governor of Kherson ordered an immediate evacuation of citizens. Officials told residents they had five hours to get out, instructing them only to take essential documents and directing them to buses that would take them to higher ground.

The explosion at the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, which seems to be beyond repair, could also affect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is located approximately 100 miles upstream.

The reservoir provides cooling water to the plant and the International Atomic Energy Agency, said it is “closely monitoring” the situation surrounding the dam but that there was “no immediate nuclear safety risk” to Zaporizhzhia.

In an interview with the New York Times, Ivan Plachkov -- a former minister of energy of Ukraine -- said that all six nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhzhia Plant are shut down but still require water to dissipate heat from the radioactive fuel remaining in the reactor cores.

 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Crimea would need that water, no? Why would the Russians destroy a dam that supplied Crimea’s drinking water?

Somebody over there, one side or the other, appears to be getting desperate.
At this point, NOTE: AT THIS POINT: Everyone is on the band wagon in blaming Russia. "The Voice of Ukraine" (donate to support their voice) is unequivocal in their condemnation of Russia and has the backing of ALL the NATO countries. Note "The voice of Ukraine" which has got to be one of the most trusted news sites on earth, maybe even in the quadrant of the Universe.

AT THIS POINT: IMHO no one knows, and as mentioned earlier might just be from stress.

I find it interesting that Ukraine had plenty of time to get a bunch of buses together and evacuate the down stream civilians. Which is really odd since every dam disaster that is unexpected, has never worked out. Even the former biggest dam in the world, in Italy, when a piece of a mountain slid off into the reservoir, and over topped the dam killed 3,000 people. And didn't damage the dam, except for some erosion on the top of the dam.

So IMHO at this point, no one knows, (Russia blew up their own bridge and pipeline, shelled the nuke plant) It may be we will find out later that Ukraine blew up the bridge, and nuke plant, and the US blew up the pipeline.

Everyone is screaming war crimes. Wonder if that applies to the 3 dam busters raids the US did, during WWII?

Sure Russia could have done it.

But it seems odd to blow up the means of cooling the nuke plant, while your people are in it.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
The flood that results prevents Russia from advancing on Odesa.
Ukraine no longer needs the force to defend the west side of the river and those forces can be redeployed to Zaporizhzhia.
Russia must now expend additional resources to supply water to the NPP cooling systems while defending the plant.

The narrative will be "NATO must act now to save the ZPP and prevent nuclear fallout from falling on Europe".
 
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