The consequences of the undermining of the Kakhovskaya dam for Energodar and the Zaporozhye NPP:
1) At the moment, the Kiev regime continues to discharge a large volume water from the Dnepro HPP.
2) Nonetheless, the water levels in Novaya Kakhovka are reported to have stabilized and are no longer increasing (same cannot be said for elsewhere along the river).
3) There has been some speculation that the dropping water levels in the Kakhovskoye Reservoir (see first map) would open up the path to a Ukrainian offensive on Energodar and the Zaporozhye NPP from the Nikopol-Ilyinka line (see second map).
4) This is highly unlikely. The Reservoir will definitely not dry out completely, and the sinking water levels will result in kilometres of the Reservoir along the southern shore becoming a wading pool.
5) As a result, an amphibious landing would still be required, but would be rendered impossible by large swaths of water area becoming impassible to boats and landing craft.
6) While the higher elevation of the right (northern) bank of the Dnepr (see third map) likely makes the launch of the boats possible regardless of the drop in the water levels, the lower left (southern) bank will be bordered by a significant area of water that the Ukrainian troops would have to wade through on foot, making them easy targets for the Russian artillery and the airforce.
After puzzling for some time as to the Ukrainian goals in precipitating the dam’s undermining, I am left with two possibilities:
A) It was an accident.
B) It was intended a means of terminating the standoff along the Kherson portion of the Dnepr, so that neither side could threaten the other. This would release the Ukrainian troops stationed here to be redeployed to the Zaporozhye front, where they are needed. Same, however, can be said for the Russian Army.
I favour the second explanation. We’ll see who gets their troops faster to where they are needed.
View: https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1666159786436567040?cxt=HHwWgIC9mfDfsZ8uAAAA
