ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

Abert

Veteran Member
It appears they have it - was a twitter post this morning (pulled) but this article states that that permission was given today - also could relate to the post on Poland sending arms into Moldova;

Moldova gave the green light to the Special Operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to clear the so-called occupiers.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13xphi8 View: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13xphi8/moldova_green_lights_ukraines_assistance_in/


If it is necessary for the Ukrainian army, we are ready to give the right to enter our territory in order to deal with warehouses, weapons and personnel. This is an allied gesture," Sandu said.
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB

inskanoot

Veteran Member
Oreally is actually correct about this one. Most countries in the world do not have inherent granted-by-God-and-not government rights of free speech. But NO country in which martial law has been declared - US or not - has it in that situation.

The State Dept response was inappropriate.

Obviously, it is dangerous for American citizens living in the Ukraine to express views that are critical of the role that the regime and its supporters are playing.
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
It appears they have it - was a twitter post this morning (pulled) but this article states that that permission was given today - also could relate to the post on Poland sending arms into Moldova;

Moldova gave the green light to the Special Operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to clear the so-called occupiers.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13xphi8 View: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13xphi8/moldova_green_lights_ukraines_assistance_in/


If it is necessary for the Ukrainian army, we are ready to give the right to enter our territory in order to deal with warehouses, weapons and personnel. This is an allied gesture," Sandu said.
Hummm Ukraine doesn't have enough arms, ammo, and men to fight in their own country and now they are going to help another country? Smells like money to me.
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
Hummm Ukraine doesn't have enough arms, ammo, and men to fight in their own country and now they are going to help another country? Smells like money to me.
It would, if Russia doesnt destroy it, give them access to the ammo dump there. I believe it is the largest in Europe. The material is left over from the early 90s and there is some question about storage and condition but it would give them a lot of ammo for their old Soviet equipment.
 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Russia appears to be going after the NATO/UK Handlers.
This appears to be the 2nd time.

Named the number of dead from a new Russian strike on the center of special operations of NATO officers​

Meanwhile, Ukrainians are asking to withdraw Patriot from Kyiv

The Telegram channel "Image of the Future" reported serious losses for the Ukrainian army in the Odessa region. Rocket strikes on the port of Odessa resulted in the destruction of dozens of Western weapons, including two HIMARS. The fire also burned 14 armored vehicles and 34 pickup trucks. In total, more than one billion dollars worth of military property has been lost.

However, the most interesting thing that the channel reported was a direct hit on the control center for special maritime operations, where 98 people were located: 22 British military intelligence officers, 8 BND (German special services), 4 Pentagon representatives and two French Air Force officers were killed. The rest of the foreigners are wounded.

It is reported that they were promptly sent through the Chisinau airport to Poland, Germany and Switzerland. This is confirmed, in particular, by Flightradar24 data, which recorded the activity of Polish aircraft flying from Ukraine to Moldova and Germany. It is not ruled out that military aircraft can bring weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, and bring back the bodies of dead and wounded foreigners.

 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
It would, if Russia doesnt destroy it, give them access to the ammo dump there. I believe it is the largest in Europe. The material is left over from the early 90s and there is some question about storage and condition but it would give them a lot of ammo for their old Soviet equipment.
I had forgotten about that, but ammo alone won't change the outcome, you need people to fire that ammo, and Ukraine just doesn't have them, not even using children.
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB

Smell something funny in Denmark?​

Social Media Censorship Destroying Evidence of War Crimes, Report Claims​


A.I.-powered censorship regimes on social media platforms are reportedly destroying evidence of war crimes, the BBC.
Platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and Youtube have allegedly been erasing footage of war crimes that took place in the likes of Syria and Ukraine, even when such footage does not go against their terms of service.
Since the election of Donald Trump in 2016, big tech companies have embraced regimes of mass censorship in the hopes of appeasing progressives, developing algorithms that can rip content from their sites in a matter of minutes should it be deemed undesirable.

According to a report by the BBC however, such algorithms are now putting investigations into war crimes in danger, with graphic footage depicting human rights abuses and dead civilians being quickly erased from online platforms without archived copies stored.
Though numerous companies in the sector ostensibly allow in their policies the posting of graphic content that is in the public interest, the UK broadcaster claims that it has repeatedly had problems with test-uploads of footage online.

In one instance, journalists from the organisation attempted to upload four separate videos to both Instagram and Youtube to “dummy” accounts which depicted evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
Instagram reportedly deleted three of the four videos within a minute, while all four of the videos were stripped from Youtube within ten.
Such rapid and comprehensive censorship now could put investigations into war crimes in jeopardy, with the outlet describing how social media deletions appear to have erased footage allegedly depicting the aftermath of a Syrian government bombing against civilians from existence.
Footage of the alleged war crime was reportedly recorded by a local television station before being uploaded to Youtube and Facebook.
The TV station is later said to have lost the footage due to further bombing, leaving the American social media companies with the sole remaining copies of the footage.

However, the BBC now says that such footage has been stripped from both social media websites.
With the broadcaster also suggesting that the deletion of such alleged war crime footage has possibly jeopardised asylum claims in Europe, it appears likely that the erasure of such footage is an unintended consequence of the massive uptick in censorship online.

Pushed heavily by progressives in both public and private positions of power, attempts to scrub “disinformation” from the internet have only expanded in recent years, with the European Union preparing to deploy new laws forcing even stricter speech controls in August.
Such a crusade has been met with a growing level of resistance however, with Elon Musk’s Twitter pulling out of the bloc’s voluntary online censorship programme last week, much to the chagrin of Brussels.
Eurocrats have nevertheless insisted that the platform will be thrown out of the bloc if it opts to refuse future censorship demands, with one bigwig telling the platform that it can “run”, but it “can’t hide”.

 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB

Smell something funny in Denmark?​

Social Media Censorship Destroying Evidence of War Crimes, Report Claims​


A.I.-powered censorship regimes on social media platforms are reportedly destroying evidence of war crimes, the BBC.
Platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and Youtube have allegedly been erasing footage of war crimes that took place in the likes of Syria and Ukraine, even when such footage does not go against their terms of service.
Since the election of Donald Trump in 2016, big tech companies have embraced regimes of mass censorship in the hopes of appeasing progressives, developing algorithms that can rip content from their sites in a matter of minutes should it be deemed undesirable.

According to a report by the BBC however, such algorithms are now putting investigations into war crimes in danger, with graphic footage depicting human rights abuses and dead civilians being quickly erased from online platforms without archived copies stored.
Though numerous companies in the sector ostensibly allow in their policies the posting of graphic content that is in the public interest, the UK broadcaster claims that it has repeatedly had problems with test-uploads of footage online.

In one instance, journalists from the organisation attempted to upload four separate videos to both Instagram and Youtube to “dummy” accounts which depicted evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
Instagram reportedly deleted three of the four videos within a minute, while all four of the videos were stripped from Youtube within ten.
Such rapid and comprehensive censorship now could put investigations into war crimes in jeopardy, with the outlet describing how social media deletions appear to have erased footage allegedly depicting the aftermath of a Syrian government bombing against civilians from existence.
Footage of the alleged war crime was reportedly recorded by a local television station before being uploaded to Youtube and Facebook.
The TV station is later said to have lost the footage due to further bombing, leaving the American social media companies with the sole remaining copies of the footage.

However, the BBC now says that such footage has been stripped from both social media websites.
With the broadcaster also suggesting that the deletion of such alleged war crime footage has possibly jeopardised asylum claims in Europe, it appears likely that the erasure of such footage is an unintended consequence of the massive uptick in censorship online.

Pushed heavily by progressives in both public and private positions of power, attempts to scrub “disinformation” from the internet have only expanded in recent years, with the European Union preparing to deploy new laws forcing even stricter speech controls in August.
Such a crusade has been met with a growing level of resistance however, with Elon Musk’s Twitter pulling out of the bloc’s voluntary online censorship programme last week, much to the chagrin of Brussels.
Eurocrats have nevertheless insisted that the platform will be thrown out of the bloc if it opts to refuse future censorship demands, with one bigwig telling the platform that it can “run”, but it “can’t hide”.

I would note what is good for the goose (Russia) is good for the gander (Ukraine).

Meaning if they are stripping video of Russian war crimes, what makes anyone think they ain't doing it to Ukraine war crimes.

Or US for that matter.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Good interview with Larry Johnson (27 min):
If you are wondering if Russia is slackening in its bombing/missile campaign targeting Ukrainian military positions throughout western Ukraine, the answer is no. This tells me that Russia is taking the loose talk about a Ukrainian offensive seriously and are taking pro-active measures to pre-empt or weaken the attack when it comes.
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Same "PlayBook" same authors - CIA - all for Social Media;

Ukrainian battalions such as the White Wolves are filming footage for social media consumption from a bird's-eye view that verges on the gamification of real-life combat.


"Gamifcation". Interesting turn of phrase. Akin IMHO to the psychological and physiological reactions reported in the ancient texts we have to attending gladiatorial "games" in Rome.
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

Russia Prepares Capture Marinika, UK Wallace Admit West Arsenal Exhausted: Orban: Ukr Offensive Fail​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1EWgXXr1nE

Run time - 59:34
Jun 2, 2023

TIME STAMPS

- Not-Spring offensive postponed 00:00

- US produces 400k ammo rounds per year 07:00

- Russia produces 6x the amount of entire West 08:45

- Relentless push for offensive by West 12:10

- Western Media paddles minor attacks as 'shaping the offensive' 18:15

- Tschechens ordered to attack in various places 24:36

- Marinka becomes meatgrinder V.2 26:04

- Vuhledar 30:45

- Kupiansk Russian control enlarged 34:53

- Guardian: Ukrainian soldiers training to take back Bakhmut 39:47

- Maybe Russian offensive before the not-spring offensive 44:00

- Stoltenberg, Wallace: Barrel is empty 46:00

- Victor Orban: Stop this offensive 46:52
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
NATO is trying for justification to invoke Article 5 - an armed attack.
By clearing Ukraine, Ukraine won't be making an armed attack.
But any defensive operation by the Russians would be.
NATO is trying for justification to invoke Article 5 - an armed attack, then what would NATO do?
NATO must surely know that by invoking Article 5 against Russia would lead to a major war.

I have not heard that the NATO countries are calling up reservists, putting their countries on a war footing.
 

Oreally

Right from the start
The State Dept response was inappropriate.

Obviously, it is dangerous for American citizens living in the Ukraine to express views that are critical of the role that the regime and its supporters are playing.
actually ukraine has a very severe justice system, if you have not bought your way out of it.
i would not be surprised if this idiot ends up spending very hard time for a long time in very unpleasant places with this.

people here are very, very angry with the war and anyone, especially a foreigner who has done and said what he has said and done, is in for it . . .
 

raven

TB Fanatic
The State Dept response was inappropriate.

Obviously, it is dangerous for American citizens living in the Ukraine to express views that are critical of the role that the regime and its supporters are playing.
So, an American living in a country at war can safely be ignored
because it is too dangerous for them to "speak power to the truth".

Roger, copy

And this idea that "Freedom of Speech" is somehow naturally curtained during war . . .
. . . you all need to re-read the history of the constitution.
. . . in fact, every revolution has been based on "Freedom of Speech"
(does not mean you are not going to get barbequed for it)
Freedom of Speech is pretty useless when everything is going your way.

heck, when everything is going your way, the 2nd Amendment is just a hunting license.
 
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Oreally

Right from the start
i was on a train today and had a very interesting conversation with an electrical engineer (more on that later) and he told me this;

as for Zelensky:

he was elected in 2019 for a 5 year term. he promised in his campaign that he would only serve for one term, ending in 2024. this guy was very clear to me the that he expects him to honor that pledge, and many others do too. and if he tries to run again, there will be 'trouble'.

there is an election for their legislature in 2023. right now, Zelinsky's party 'servant of the people' has a 10 seat majority in their parliament. so they can pass whatever Z wants.

corruption is endemic and everyone knows it. there is one agency for all government contracting and it controlled by Z's main advisor, who no one trusts.

but the army is not really controlled by Zelensky. and the hope is that after the war they will step in and correct things.

a lot of the supplies for the guys fighting are being crowd funded by friends and neighbors. which he pointed out is nutz, since where is all the $ from the US going?

there are several parties in the legislature, and they are all personality based.

for sure, the corruption thing is a big concern for everyone, but it is definitely less since the war started.

a big concern is that ,for ukraine, the 'best' people are being put into jeopardy and dying, while for the russians, it is their dregs that are fighting and dying.

for sure, the war has absolutely solidified their national identity, whatever it was before,

this guy was from Crimea and he said that 1/2 the population there totally identifies with being Ukrainian.

and lastly, he said that even if Z was outed tomorrow. someone else would take his place and they would fight on no matter what, forever, to the last man and child, while if Putin was offed, the war would end.

he expects the war will end with the dissolution of the russian federation.

i will get some very interesting videos for Chernobyl in a bit which i have permission to share here.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
NATO is trying for justification to invoke Article 5 - an armed attack, then what would NATO do?
NATO must surely know that by invoking Article 5 against Russia would lead to a major war.

I have not heard that the NATO countries are calling up reservists, putting their countries on a war footing.
Well the US has had the 82nd and 101st on the border for months -"training" - like any NATO operation it would be 90% US Troops. The big question remains will the US(NATO) take the loss in Ukraine or go all in - should know in a few months.
BTW: the Spring Counter Offensive is now the Summer Counter Offensive - so no longer just 2 weeks - now just 2 months.
 

Oreally

Right from the start
So, an American living in a country at war can safely be ignored
because it is too dangerous for them to "speak power to the truth".

Roger, copy

And this idea that "Freedom of Speech" is somehow naturally curtained during war . . .
. . . you all need to re-read the history of the constitution.
. . . in fact, every revolution has been based on "Freedom of Speech"
(does not mean you are not going to get barbequed for it)
Freedom of Speech is pretty useless when everything is going your way.

heck, when everything is going your way, the 2nd Amendment is just a hunting license.
dude, he is not even a citizen here. in fact, he is an illegal alien, since his visa is long expired.

the country is at war.

no rights.
 

Oreally

Right from the start
I had forgotten about that, but ammo alone won't change the outcome, you need people to fire that ammo, and Ukraine just doesn't have them, not even using children.
oh yes they do. trust me.

many, many guys are still around. everywhere.

and right now the army is 1 million strong. all trained and very very pissed off.
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
oh yes they do. trust me.

many, many guys are still around. everywhere.

and right now the army is 1 million strong. all trained and very very pissed off.
Does that million count all the support staff and logistic supply and maintenance personel? If memory serves for every front line soldier it takes 10 support staff. for aircraft and heavy equipment that figure may be even more.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
Well the US has had the 82nd and 101st on the border for months -"training" - like any NATO operation it would be 90% US Troops. The big question remains will the US(NATO) take the loss in Ukraine or go all in - should know in a few months.
BTW: the Spring Counter Offensive is now the Summer Counter Offensive - so no longer just 2 weeks - now just 2 months.
If we go "by the book". like Lieutenant Saavik, months could seem like weeks.

How long?

Two Weeks
 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
NATO is trying for justification to invoke Article 5 - an armed attack.
By clearing Ukraine, Ukraine won't be making an armed attack.
But any defensive operation by the Russians would be.
Moldova gave the green light to the Special Operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to clear the so-called occupiers.
Moldova is also neither a member of the European Union nor the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
NATO's Article 5 would not apply in this situation.
As I understand this.

This Russian military presence dates back to 1992, when the 14th Guards Army intervened in the Transnistria War in support of the Transnistrian separatist forces. Following the end of the war, which ended in a Russian-backed Transnistrian victory and in the de facto independence of the region, the Russian forces stayed in a purportedly peacekeeping mission and reorganized in 1995 into the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF), currently guarding the Cobasna ammunition depot. Some other Russian soldiers also participate in the Joint Control Commission between Moldova, Russia and Transnistria since 1992.

If the Kiev Ukrainians decides to go for the ammo dump, the road is open.
The Russians know that they need to be a minimum of 50 KM away when the Kiev Ukrainians set it off.
 
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raven

TB Fanatic
Moldova is also neither a member of the European Union nor the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
NATO's Article 5 would not apply in this situation.
As I understand this.

This Russian military presence dates back to 1992, when the 14th Guards Army intervened in the Transnistria War in support of the Transnistrian separatist forces. Following the end of the war, which ended in a Russian-backed Transnistrian victory and in the de facto independence of the region, the Russian forces stayed in a purportedly peacekeeping mission and reorganized in 1995 into the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF), currently guarding the Cobasna ammunition depot. Some other Russian soldiers also participate in the Joint Control Commission between Moldova, Russia and Transnistria since 1992.

If the Kiev Ukrainians decides to go for the ammo dump, the road is open.
The Russians know that they need to be a minimum of 50 KM away when the Kiev Ukrainians set it off.
I know. But NATO has had a "cooperation" agreement with Moldova - which could qualify as "any excuse".
 
actually ukraine has a very severe justice system, if you have not bought your way out of it.
i would not be surprised if this idiot ends up spending very hard time for a long time in very unpleasant places with this.

people here are very, very angry with the war and anyone, especially a foreigner who has done and said what he has said and done, is in for it . . .

Please do not forget how welcome Americans are today, maybe not so much in the future. As in - please move the patriot batteries West of Kiev.

===
.
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
Does that million count all the support staff and logistic supply and maintenance personel? If memory serves for every front line soldier it takes 10 support staff. for aircraft and heavy equipment that figure may be even more.
But all militaries are counted like that. They dont break out the tooth to tail. IIRC modern wartime runs 7-8 support per 1 combat.

Russia started with a high ratio but that seemingly broke down in their attempt at Kiev due to lack of logistics. They also used Wagner to add teeth and probably spare their own teeth for later. I suspect that both Russia and Ukraine have similar ratios now. Both will be dumping a large amount of newly trained forces and equipment into this coming battle. By the end I suspect a lot of the support personnel will be combat troops on both sides.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummmm...............

Posted for fair use.....

WHAT THE UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES NEED TO DO TO WIN​

ERIK KRAMER AND PAUL SCHNEIDER
JUNE 2, 2023
COMMENTARY

Our instructors were training a Ukrainian national guard unit near the Moldovan border. When we arrived at the range, a Ukrainian unit was already on the range throwing hand grenades in an open field less than 200 meters from us, then just dropping to the ground and watching them explode without any cover. These soldiers then proceeded to conduct machine gun training, shooting from positions from the left range berm across the range (not against the backstop). Our instructors were conducting round-robin training about 150 meters behind the range, and the rounds were whistling over our heads. When we approached the person in charge, he said not to worry; he was a Ukrainian marine who had survived Mariupol, and the range was to NATO standards. The bravery and elan of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not in question, but this example is a small indicator of the issues plaguing the training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces — the lack of an ingrained understanding on how to conduct uniform, consistent training.

Based on our nine months of training with all services of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to include the Ground Forces (Army), Border Guard Service, National Guard, Naval Infantry (Marines), Special Operations Forces, and Territorial Defense Forces, we have observed a series of common trends: lack of mission command, effective training, and combined arms operations; ad hoc logistics and maintenance; and improper use of special operations forces. These trends have undermined Ukraine’s resistance and could hinder the success of the ongoing offensive.

How can Ukraine change the formula in their favor? The answer is uniform combined arms training focusing on mission command from the brigade level down, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces can achieve through a repeatable thirty-day “train the trainer” program. This instruction could be carried out by Western contracted military instructors, working with Ukrainian military veterans in Ukraine. This training will enable them to conduct combined arms operations and capitalize on the advantages the influx of advanced Western military equipment provides, and hopefully to enable Ukraine to overcome Russia’s manpower advantages.

Lack of Mission Command

In our experience, across many units and staffs, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not promote personal initiative and foster mutual trust or mission command. As Michael Kofman and Rob Lee recently discussed on the Russia Contingency podcast, elements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have an old Soviet mentality that holds most decision-making at more senior levels. Amongst military leaders at the brigade level and below, our impression is that junior officers fear making mistakes. During our training sessions with field grade officers, we are often asked what the punishment is for failure during missions or making bad decisions. We are also repeatedly asked at each step of planning or operations, “Who is allowed to make this decision?” They are surprised that U.S. battalion battle captains (staff officers who oversee ongoing battalion operations) have the authority to make decisions or give orders on behalf of the battalion commander.

During training exercises, we have repeatedly observed that the Ukrainian military’s planning process requires separate orders for each phase of the operation. For example, a battalion in the defense cannot conduct a counterattack even if they are attacked. They do not have potential stand-by missions such as “be prepared to counterattack” that are planned in advance to exploit unexpected opportunities. They must await orders. Of course, the Ukrainian military’s planning process is based on local doctrine, and in actual combat, it depends upon the commander. However, what we have observed is that there are serious changes happening throughout the Ukrainian military’s officer corps. The younger officers realize that they must get rid of the old mentality but continue to face resistance from older officers wedded to Soviet doctrine and centralized planning. Michael Kofman and Rob Lee made similar observations after their most recent research trip to the country.

Having trained every component of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, we have continually seen a lack of an experienced noncommissioned officer corps. It is common to see field grade officers running around during training counting personnel and coordinating for meals. In the United States, it takes years to develop just a junior noncommissioned officer. Senior noncommissioned officers at the platoon level have at least ten years of experience. In the U.S. military, lieutenants lead platoons, but it is the job of the platoon sergeant to train them, as discussed in Defense News. In Ukraine, it is the job of a platoon commander straight out of their service academy to lead and train their platoon. Without effective noncommissioned officers, mission command at the company level and below is almost impossible to do, and they are directly responsible for the care, mentoring, and training of soldiers.

Lack of Effective Training

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ current training philosophy is based on the old Soviet model. Large-scale battalion-level training is orchestrated and choreographed. During several exercises, we witnessed company commanders overseeing the exercise from afar and only occasionally interjecting. They were acting more as observers than direct participants. This philosophy is changing and, as noted in the Russia Contingency, appears to be generational. Younger officers are more open to Western military–style leadership, while older officers have clung to Soviet doctrine. Despite these tendencies, we have yet to see any true combined arms training involving infantry, artillery, and armor working together. Synchronizing all these different elements to achieve maximum military effect, avoid fratricide, and confuse the enemy’s takes repeated training at all levels of command, which allows leaders to make mistakes and work through processes.

One critical challenge is in how the Ukrainian military trains and how the training centers for soldiers are set up. In the armed forces, each service has its own training centers, staff, academies, and training regimes. Rarely do they exchange instructors or, for example, have national guard units train at an army center. We asked our Ukrainian counterparts directly if we could bring some Territorial Defense Forces soldiers to train on a national guard base. We were told that was not possible because they were not national guard. This system is extremely inefficient. It wastes resources and also results in wildly varying degrees of competence across services and units. The services in Ukraine’s armed forces are also not conducting planning and training from the same doctrine or tactics, techniques, and procedures. As a result, when Ukraine’s services do conduct operations together, misunderstandings, distrust, and miscommunications are very common.

As noted in these virtual pages, there are several volunteer organizations training the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Most of this training’s focus is on basic soldier skills at the company or platoon level. The training is disjointed and haphazard, and the quality of instruction varies. NATO is training select units and soldiers outside of Ukraine. While this training can be effective and necessary for certain specialty skills, such as tank crews and HIMARS teams, it takes units and soldiers away from the front line for weeks, if not months, at a time. Commanders cannot afford to lose units and soldiers for extended periods. According to our field research, there is evidence of this immediate need because most of the units we train go to the front the day after we finish a training session. We also believe that the training efforts outside of Ukraine are not consistent and do not use common programs of instruction. Furthermore, these foreign training efforts adhere to the host country’s doctrine. While they do attempt to incorporate the realities in Ukraine, many of them do not fully adapt their training regimes to the way the Ukrainians fight, especially with the Ukrainian doctrinal and legal restraints on operations.

Lack of Combined Arms Operations

A critical challenge for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is they do not consistently conduct combined arms operations. The lack of combining synchronized operations results in greater losses of life and equipment as well as failed operations. Based on our discussions with Ukrainian company commanders and our own trainers who fought with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, tanks are used more as mobile artillery and not in combined operations with infantry where the armor goes into action just ahead of the infantry. We have seen firsthand the shot-out barrels of tanks (and artillery) from constantly being fired at max range or overused without maintenance or replacement. Michael Kofman has made similar observations. The armor/infantry relationship is supposed to be symbiotic, but it is not. The result is that infantry will conduct frontal assaults or operate in urban areas without the protection and firepower of tanks. Also, artillery fires are not synchronized with maneuver. Most units do not talk directly to supporting artillery, so there is a delay in call for fire missions. We have been told that units will use runners to send fire missions to artillery batteries because of issues with communications.

Most of the military’s operations are not phased and are sequential. Fires and maneuver, for example, are planned separately from infantry units — and infantry units plan separately from supporting artillery. This mentality also carries over to adjacent unit coordination, which is either nonexistent or rare and causes high rates of fratricide. Unit commanders have concerns about collaborators and thus are hesitant to pass on critical information that can be used against them to sister units.

These issues are compounded by unreliable communications between units and with senior leadership. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have a hodgepodge of radios that are vulnerable to jamming. Further, battalion missions are mainly independent company operations that do not focus on a main effort coupled with supporting efforts. The armed forces do not combine effects, so operations are piecemeal and disjointed. The separate missions are not supporting each other, nor are the missions of lower level units “nested” under a higher level mission. Sustainment is not synchronized with operations, either.

Ad Hoc Logistics and Maintenance

Western aid has been critical for Ukraine’s defense. However, the variety of equipment Ukraine now uses has led to significant logistics and maintenance challenges. In our experience, the Ukrainian military cannibalizes new equipment arriving in Ukraine to service equipment deployed in the field. As a result, front-line units only receive a small percentage of what is sent to the country. For example, a .50 caliber machine gun arrives in Ukraine with extra barrels, parts, manuals, and accessories, but by the time it gets to Donbas, all that remains is the gun.

As others have written, Ukrainian forces have leaned on YouTube videos to learn how to use new and unfamiliar equipment. Also, the mentality of supply distribution in Ukraine is to husband resources. Most battalion supply officers are appointed and not school trained. They might have an assistant and some vehicles, but everything is based on personal initiative. Maintenance is based on cannibalization, horse trading between units, and battlefield recovery. There is not a steady stream of repair parts or a system of maintenance at the unit, battalion, brigade, and depot levels. The skill of maintainers is based more on personal aptitude and less on school-trained mechanics. All the services have maintenance courses, but that does not translate into a ready pool of mechanics.

Continued.....
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Continued.....

This attitude toward maintenance translates into how armor, mechanized vehicles, and artillery are used in combat. Units protect these assets and use tanks more as artillery than in combined arms operations with infantry. Mechanized vehicles will transport soldiers to the front but many times will pull back when they come under fire. We have also seen the barrels of the 155mm howitzers provided by Western countries shot out due to being used at max range (using max powder charges) to keep them out of range of counterbattery fires. With the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, effective use of these assets will be key to success, and during offensive operations, the attacker usually loses more tanks, vehicles, and artillery than the defender. It will require a change in mentality.

This lack of coordinated maintenance and logistics also translates into medical care. Medical evacuation and care are haphazard. Experienced Ukrainian combat medics have repeatedly stated that many of the evacuees would have survived it they had reached definitive care in a timely manner. The Ukrainian Armed Forces can solve this issue with a systematic logistics process.

Improperly Used Special Operations Forces

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SOF) vary in their abilities, training, and specialties. Unfortunately, many are employed like conventional infantry. This negates the skills that make these units specialized. Due to the high-intensity combat operations and the ongoing Russian counteroffensive, special operations force units are often put in the trenches and not assigned traditional special operations force–type missions of raids, reconnaissance, and ambushes. These piecemeal efforts result in high casualty rates and a lack of special operations force missions involving surprise or stealth that can support and shape battalion and brigade conventional force operations. Traditionally, these types of soldiers receive more training and have less firepower than a conventional unit, so you are wasting a valuable asset that takes time to reconstitute. Ukraine special forces units comprised of international volunteers shop around their services to conventional unit commanders without a mission being tied to a strategic or operational goal. One example of a mission was a conventional brigade commander who had reported to his command that he had occupied a village taken from the Russians. When he realized that the information he had was mistaken and they had stopped short, he asked the international special operations forces unit to go into the occupied village and take a picture of a Ukrainian flag placed on top of a building in the center of the village. Special operations force units are quickly depleted, and replacements lack the training and experience to conduct true special operations force missions.

How to Fix These Problems?

The solutions to these challenges require a reallocation of resources and a change of mentality. This is, arguably, tougher than allocating more resources and spending more money. We recommend a centrally planned, executed at the lower level, synchronized training program focusing on a twenty- to thirty-day training regime for each brigade. This approach is known as a “train the trainer program” and is designed to create a cadre of trainers who then can continue to train new Ukrainian officers that are cycled through the program. The program of instruction should have enough flexibility to make adjustments based on changes on the battlefield and nuances between units. It is critical that this training take place inside Ukraine, using local and foreign instructors for Western and Soviet-origin equipment.

The basic unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is the light infantry battalion. A program of instruction focused on this formation should serve as the basis for all training and be organized in a series of ten-day training courses, followed by an eight-day culminating exercise. Honing in on the basics of soldiering and planning at the battalion level will lead to success on the battlefield and alleviate casualties. This instruction would involve a ten-day individual soldier training for privates and noncommissioned officers and a ten-day company/platoon commander course. The first course would focus on basic soldiering and light infantry tactics, while noncommissioned officers would focus on leadership and logistics. At the battalion level, the course will focus on company offensive and defensive operations in both rural and urban terrain. The third ten-day course would be a planning course for brigade/battalion and staff operations. This course will focus on the basic offensive and defensive operations of a battalion, staff functions and operations, and a twelve- to twenty-four-hour planning cycle.

The planning process should be a scaled-down version of the U.S./NATO military decision-making process. Most operations in Ukraine are planned with less than twenty-four hours or even just a few hours. Ukraine’s doctrine and rules and regulations also require the commander to approve every step of a mission, so a process adapted to Ukraine is necessary. The exercises will include planning for urban operations. Combined arms operations including the integration of fires, engineers, drones, and armor will be included. The course would also develop a communications architecture across the brigade and battalion level. Furthermore, this training should focus on integrating logistics planning into all phases of the operation as well as the training of logisticians from internal assets. Establishing a separate supply and logistics platoon for each battalion that includes dedicated medical evacuation will be critical.

The culminating exercise would be an eight-day brigade/battalion/company collective training course that would involve combined arms exercises starting with planning and including companies in the field. These exercises should allow “free play” where there are consequences for each decision and commanders and staff must adjust to each change.

For Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, training focuses on three basic missions: ambush, recon, and raid using a crawl, walk, run method. The focus should be on detailed planning and these three missions. This instruction can be completed in twenty-five days. The first fifteen days should focus on basic infantry tactics, along with medical, engineering, and night operations. The final ten days, in our opinion, should focus on planning and operations.

All training should include recurring follow-on staff assistance visits at the brigade and battalion level to provide refresher training and advice on operations. Also, mobile training and maintenance teams who specialize in systems that require technical skills and maintenance should be located throughout the eastern part of Ukraine. They could provide training and maintenance on armor, armored personnel carriers, anti-tank systems, crew-served weapons, radios, and man-portable air defense systems. Those training and maintenance teams who train individual soldiers and crews would conduct training behind the lines in the brigade headquarters area.

We also recommend a senior mentor program at the general officer level of command located at the general staff and regional command level. The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have divisions but rather operate in regional commands. The mentorship program could include former senior Western officers to provide advice on planning and mission command.

This program of instruction is ambitious but doable. Our company, the Ukraine Defense Support Group, has taught rapid planning based on a modified version of the military decision-making process to battalions and staffs effectively within five days. It involved one day of theoretical training, a one-day cadre-led walk-through, and three days of student-led planning exercises including mission analysis, course of action development, wargaming, and orders production.

The long-term solution for training includes the consolidation of training courses. Currently, each service has its own system of schools for everything to include armor, medical, and drone operation. This stovepiping of training leads to inefficiencies and inconsistent efforts. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, whether under the Ministry of Defence or Internal Affairs, should designate a specific school/service as a proponent for each specific skill or weapons system. That school will instruct all students whether they are Ground Forces, Border Guard Service, National Guard, Naval Infantry, or Territorial Defense Forces. This change will require a cultural shift and is akin to the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act that required more “jointness” in the U.S. military. Ukraine is in an existential fight for its existence, and interservice rivalry needs be set aside for the sake of the country.

Conclusion

Ukraine has fought mostly a defensive war and will be transitioning to the offense. The ratio of troops in the offense versus the defense can be 3 to 1 (6 to 1 in urban combat). Add in high-intensity urban operations, and that ratio goes up. Ukraine has yet to conduct major offensive operations in a large city or to perform a major river crossing. Both of these operations are very complex and resource- /manpower-intensive, requiring close synchronization of all assets to include infantry, armor, artillery, logistics, and medical to be successful. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have performed admirably but need to refocus their training and operations on combined arms operations and to become adept at operating at night.

Western support to Ukraine has an expiration date that is fast approaching. Also, the will of the Ukrainian people to support high casualty rates is very high but is not infinite. The Russian military has plenty of people and time on their side. The way to change the equation in Ukraine’s favor is through combined arms operations and training. History has repeatedly shown how a well-trained and properly led military can beat a poorly trained army. The challenging part is changing the mentality of senior leaders who have spent decades in the Soviet system to a mission command philosophy that allows for flexibility and initiative with the understanding that it will not result in a disaster or a prison sentence but rather battlefield victory.



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Erik Kramer is the director and cofounder of the Ukraine Defense Support Group located in Kyiv, Ukraine, and has been in Ukraine since July 2022 training the Ukrainian Armed Forces at every unit level from squad, platoon, and company basic soldier skills and small unit tactics to battalion/brigade planning and operations. He is a former Army Special Forces officer who retired in 2014 after twenty-six years of commissioned and enlisted service. His final military assignment was at the Pentagon in the office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict. As a Special Forces officer, he served in Afghanistan, Bosnia, Congo, Iraq, and Kosovo at various levels of command from detachment command to battalion level equivalent.

Paul Schneider is the other cofounder of the Ukraine Defense Support Group. He has been in Ukraine for many months and has taught Ukrainian Armed Forces tactical through strategic operations all the way up to the senior instructors of Ukraine’s military academies on the military decision-making process and conventional brigade/battalion operations in large-scale combat operations. Paul is a former U.S. Special Forces commander and has extensive training and combat experience in multiple locations. He retired in 2021 to pursue humanitarian efforts that included the evacuation of hundreds of Afghans and U.S. citizens in the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Paul volunteered to help with humanitarian efforts in Ukraine.
 
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